Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

[tool21]

I'm a strong believer in chase systems, always have been. It takes a great person to beat the books flat betting, although it takes time and patience, but an average better can be successful with some type of chase system. Money management is the key and it has to be set up with knowledge in mind.

I will have one play a day until the end of the season using a modified chasing system. Starting bankroll will be 280$ and the starting wager will be 7$. All wagers are to win that amount.

I'm doing this for myself. If you want to follow, you can do so. If you want to ask questions, do so.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.16

NY Knicks +7.5 7.70 to win 7

 

[quisp]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

of all the games slated tonite, why are you starting with the knicks? any system/method behind that selection?

 

[quisp]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

also, will you allow for a cut-off point where you will bow out of the chase? if so, after how many losses in a row? if the knicks lose tonite, will you wait to wager on them next game or start a new chase on a different team tomorrow while also staying on the chase with the knicks? also, if the knicks lose, the next time that they play, will you try to recoup your initial investment or try double up (7 + 7)?

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

of all the games slated tonite, why are you starting with the knicks? any system/method behind that selection?

This is the same method that i've been using in my other thread that i've had success with. It is hitting higher than 55% through 150 plays.

I have the line at NJ -1.78 so I think NY is my best bet for tonight.

 

[quisp]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

tool

just asking. because some of pac man's hockey method works off of
1> against a team on road after road win (as long as dog)
2> on a team at home after a home loss (as long as fav)
etc.

thanks for the reply

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

also, will you allow for a cut-off point where you will bow out of the chase? if so, after how many losses in a row? if the knicks lose tonite, will you wait to wager on them next game or start a new chase on a different team tomorrow while also staying on the chase with the knicks? also, if the knicks lose, the next time that they play, will you try to recoup your initial investment or try double up (7 + 7)?

The best way i can explain is to give an example for consecutive loses.

My starting bet 7$
2nd bet 14$
3rd bet 21$

If i lose these three then i move on to another section

4th bet 14$
5th bet 28$
6th bet 42$


If i lose these three then i move on to another section

7th bet 21$
8th bet 42$
9th bet 63$


Now this is for consecutive losses. If i'm on the 2nd bet of section 2 which would be 28$ and i win that one, i return to the first bet of section 2 until i make up the money that i lost from section 1 and same with other sections. 9 consecutive losses will lose it all.

I do not chase teams if they lose. I look at the days card and i do process of elimination to come to a solid play for that day.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

tool

just asking. because some of pac man's hockey method works off of
1> against a team on road after road win (as long as dog)
2> on a team at home after a home loss (as long as fav)
etc.

thanks for the reply

I do not take this into consideration when picking my plays.

 

[jacksonjohn]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

I'm a strong believer in chase systems, always have been. It takes a great person to beat the books flat betting, although it takes time and patience, but an average better can be successful with some type of chase system. Money management is the key and it has to be set up with knowledge in mind.

I will have one play a day until the end of the season using a modified chasing system. Starting bankroll will be 280$ and the starting wager will be 7$. All wagers are to win that amount.

I'm doing this for myself. If you want to follow, you can do so. If you want to ask questions, do so.

Willl you still be posting your regular flat bets, or just the chase system?

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Willl you still be posting your regular flat bets, or just the chase system?

I'm just going to stick with the chase system. I cashed out some money, needed to put 4 tires on my car so i'm only left with 280 buckos. This is my project in the works right now!!

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.16

NY Knicks +7.5 7.70 to win 7 Won

1-0 +7$ +1unit

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

long-time lurker, just starting out on the forum...tool I really like your style, except in calculating the amount necessary in placing bets, aren't you forgetting the juice? I know that would take forever to figure out and changes depending on your bet anyways, but I am curious if that does make a significant change on the amounts you have to bet in order for your system to work...not trying to be a pain but just curious...keep up the great picks!

Good question. If this were a regular chase system where you MUST win MORE THAN you have lost on previous games then i would include the juice. But this is modified and from what i saw putting this together, the juice should have no effect on the outcome as in profit or loss.

This method is and isn't a chase system. The reason behind that statement is because it takes into account that the more you lose the more you're going to bet to recoup your loses - which is what a chase system is. Where it isn't like a chase system is that you don't 'double up' how much you've lost in the past like other chase systems.

I'm confident i can hit atleast 52% picking one play everyday throughout the rest of the season. The method i'm using will maximize my profit (or loss ) by adding money to every loss. Hell i could hit 40% and still make profit using this BUT the losses must be timely. 9 losses in a row will bust this system wide open and i will be broke. The chances of losing 9 games in a row at 50% apiece is less than a .02% chance. The other way i could loss this is by having untimely losses. For example, Lose 4, Win 1, Lose 4, Win 1, Lose 4 and bad streaks not limited to that. I'm putting faith in my handicapping method of NBA games that i won't have a streak like that. If i use process of elimination picking my games i will only be left with THE BEST out of a system that has hit around 55% religiously all around. Even 60% is def. achievable picking only the best of the best.

 

[Finance]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Hi Tool - went to a bball game last night and missed this - if I am correct since you won last night you start over at $7 for tonight (assuming any plays tonight with the limited card)?
Thanks for all of the work!!

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

You are correct. Looking at the games now, have class at 11, probably post something around 1.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Looking at Utah under. Haven't bet it yet but will wait till around 1 if i'm going to bet it.

 

[The General]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

I like your trying this and atching the results. I have werked on a similar system ATS for 8 or 9 years now and have won each year.

 

[SSI]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

i love "thinking outside the box"

with a much larger bankroll, would you suggest simply upping the amounts or would you suggest playing more than one play at a time..........

sort of like: opening one set for larger amounts or a bunch of sets for smaller amounts...........

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

i love "thinking outside the box"

with a much larger bankroll, would you suggest simply upping the amounts or would you suggest playing more than one play at a time..........

sort of like: opening one set for larger amounts or a bunch of sets for smaller amounts...........

I'm only going to have maximum one play a day for this modified chase system. Bankroll should have 40 times your initial wager and the percentages set up the same for each level of the loss. I don't think it's possible to use 'sets of games' and if it was a losing day to start to chase these on another 'set of games' the next day. Two many different scenarios about how much you lose one day then how much must you win the next day and i don't like that. Like i said before, if this is properly set up it can make an average better make a lot of money....books make you beat yourself. 50% is achieveable with a blind, deaf, dumb guy. I guess we'll see how this goes. Check back from time to time.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.17

Utah at Denver under 221 (-115)
Denver under's have burnt me a lot in the past. But gambling has no memory and neither do i.

 

[Philly Philms]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.17

Utah at Denver under 221 (-115)
Denver under's have burnt me a lot in the past. But gambling has no memory and neither do i.

LOL... amen brotha.

good Luck.

PS.. I like the under as well.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.17

Utah at Denver under 221 (-115) Loss -8.05

1-1 -1.05$

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.18

Minnesota and Phoenix under 210 15.40 to win 14

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.18

Minnesota and Phoenix under 210 15.40 to win 14 Push

 

[Hoganknows]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Just saw this ....like it ....hate the NBA....is it too late to jump in:cheers

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Just saw this ....like it ....hate the NBA....is it too late to jump in:cheers

Nope. I've only played 2 games so far. I'm on game 2 right now of the 'chase' so make sure you're aware of this and adjusting the units properly.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.19

Toronto -2.5 14.70 to win 14

 

[snake]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Tool...I was looking at your modified system here and if I'm not mistaken the results you will achieve will not deviate that much from just straight up bets.

Let me see if I understand the system correctly though...if you lose 4 in a row, your fifth bet will be at the $28 level (second group, second bet level), right? Then, if you win this game, your next bet is at $14 (second group, first bet level). Then, if you win this game, your next bet is back to $7, right?

If that's correct, then I think you'd be just as well off playing straight $7 bets every game, rather than ratcheting the bets.

I tried three random win-loss patterns and that's the results they showed.

Just curious what scenarios you have that show this as an improved betting pattern?

Cheers.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Snake,

If i lose 4 in a row, my fifth bet would be $28 (second group, second bet level) just like you stated. BUT, if i win this bet i go back to $14 (second goup, first bet) and follow the system at the second group UNTIL i make up just about all the loses from the first group.

For example:

Bet #/ Result/ Risk/ To win/ result

1 Loss 7.7 7 -7.7
2 Loss 15.4 14 -15.4
3 Loss 23.1 21 -23.1 -46.2(in group1)
4 Loss 15.4 14 -15.4
5 Win 30.8 28 28
6 Win 15.4 14 14
7 Win 15.4 14 14
8 Win 7.7 7 7 47.6

4-4 +.2 units

Hitting 50% through 8 plays and still making some.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Or i could even be creative and on the 8th bet play to win 14 which would make for even more profit. It all depends on how confident i feel on that day. :thumbsup

I'm new at this....the source from where i read it made it look so easy. But i'll manage.

 

[snake]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

I gotcha...thanks for clarifying.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.19

Toronto -2.5 14.70 to win 14 Loss

1-2 -$15.75

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1.22

Milwaukee under 214 (-105) 22.05 to win 21

 

[dpatch]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Tool thanks for the play and the chase method. It's fun.
dp

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Tool thanks for the play and the chase method. It's fun.
dp

I don't know if i would call it fun....any type of chase system is never fun. They make me nervous:smokesmal

 

[Finance]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Hang in there Tool - just need to pick one winner! I'm following, although I missed the first one so my next one will be the 3 units....GL and let's find the winna' !

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

If i can get Char-Dallas lower than 190 i'm taking the over.

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

1-3 -37.8 / 3 losses in a row

Group 2 starts today

I'm really hoping i'm not falling into 'trap' plays. Always seems like the more i look at a game the more likely it is to lose. The plays i pick in this thread are my BEST bets and i don't think there's any way they don't cover. Maybe that's why they don't. I might be the ULTIMATE public better by all the different stats i look at. Baited and hooked. Time will tell. If this isn't successful i think i WOULD be successful fading myself.

 

[Crazy Legs]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

NEVER let those kind of thoughts creep- into your head. You are a great capper and you must not let anything dissuade you into thinking otherwise.

We all have our up-s and downs but confidence is the one thing we should never lose.

Now rah rah that's your p-ep- talk for today! :dancefool Good Luck!

 

[Puccini]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Hey Tool,

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. I enjoy reading your handicapping thoughts and appreciate your skills but, to be honest, sometimes your youth shows.

I used to love chase methods. But they don't work. Period. I've tried many of them. More than I should have. They don't work mathematically, and, most importantly, they're devastating emotionally.

Just wait till you get to 6, 7, 8 losses in a row. It will happen. When all your profit is on the line you'll be consumed by your bets. And that's not a good thing. Trust me. You'll end up hating gambling.

I'd like to see you stick to one method. You were doing well betting basketball, but because you weren't hitting 60% you seemed to falter. 60% simply isnt' realistic over the long haul.

You were doing well betting dogs in hockey, but hit a bit of a rough spot and seemed to quit. You said your goal in hockey was to win 20 units. You were up plus 4 units or something like that. That's pretty good. It's not even the All-Star break.

Jumping from one thing to the next kills you. Been there, done that. My advice is to bet one way for a whole season. At the end of the season take stock and then make adjustments. And least you'll know where you stand.

It really is a marathon.

Good luck!

 

[tool21]

Re: Tool's One play a day with modified chase method

Puccini,

I never liked hockey. Never watched it before. Never played it. It's just too much with NBA going on at the same time. It doesn't bother me one bit that i quite betting the NHL but if it were the NBA it would bother me. I love baseball, football, and basketball. Those are the sports i will stick to and try to cap, i just have no passion for the NHL.

As far as my NBA system that was 60%, i would just call that a good stretch. Believe it or not it was the very first NBA line projection method i put together. Very generic. I wouldn't even be able to tell you why it worked. There was a reason that every phoenix game that came up i was on the under and every Boston game i was on the over. It was poorly set up and basically was made for every team to play average defense. If next year i was still using this and every team started to play defense like Boston then i would hit 30% trying to get overs all the time. It also depended heavilly on if money was coming in on my possible play. In handicapping i always try to NEVER depend on another source for information because that source may not always be around. If a group moving the lines quits betting and the line doesn't move my system loses as well. There are always reasons why i abandon some things and it's not because i hit bad stretches of losses. It's because the flaws in the systems start to come out and i start to pick up on them and try to make changes. For every method i've ever used i could pinpoint exactly why it would fail in the long run.


My first thought was you can't defend the perfect shot. So analyze just offenses.

Problem 1. Boston plays great defense. Phoenix plays no defense. Makes false lines.

Second thought, add defense to the mix.

Problem 2. Strength of schedule falsifies the stats. Makes false lines.

Third thought, Analyze a teams stats versus who they played throughout the year.

Problem 3. Injuries and lack of situational feel. Makes false lines.

Forth thought (testing) If all of these elements point to a bet then it must have a false line!!!!!