Line Value question

[shoebox]

I asked this question a few years back and the answers were all over the MAP. With the Big Dance comming up and so many unknown teams taking the court, these lines will fly.

If a game opens 141 and closes 147 and I go over 144 is that a good line or bad line?? Or on the side a game opens 6 and closes 9 and I lay 7.5, is that a good line or not?? Or even just a smaller range, open 6 close 8 and I lay -7??

 

[Reload]

Re: Line Value question

I'd say it depends on how long the opening line stayed where it did. If the opening line (or something close) is available for a long time, then by the time it changes 1.5 points or so that makes it a bad number to bet at that point. If it changes very quickly to be worse for you upon opening, then I'd say the closing line dictates more about the value and your numbers would be good.

I feel the moral of the story is that not everyone can bet the absolute opening line on a game or maybe you have to wait on evaluating further info before deciding and willing to miss a bit of value in exchange for that, but everyone should have a fair chance of getting to beat the closing line so there's less excuses with that.

Good examples with this happen during football season when the numbers for the following week get put on the board Sunday night. They can change in the blink of an eye and I've usually not felt bad missing out on a quick line move because maybe I want to wait until mid-week for the injury report or maybe I think the line could move the other way by the weekend. Maybe it's worth a half point or point to not have my money sucked up for a whole week trying to take a chance betting a game very early which could end up a disaster with even one bit of news, or the Vegas tourist money rolls in, or whatever, and the line could move the other way. In basketball, it's more about hours as opposed to days but it's the same basic idea.

It also depends on the numbers themselves. If Duke opens at -20 and instantly moves up to -20.5, it's lost value but anyone wanting the play probably won't worry much about it. A lot different if a low scoring smashmouth Big East game where every point is golden moves from -2 to -2.5, etc. Or if it's the NFL and a line goes from -2.5 to -3, etc.

The numbers you gave certainly seem pretty key so you will probably get half of the people saying that it's a lot of lost value and half saying that you're alright because you did better than the closing line. As I've said though, I think the answer could lie in how long the better opening numbers were up and whether it was worth tying up your money for those extra hours to act then and take them without perhaps waiting for the most key later information on the game, etc.

 

[munson15]

Re: Line Value question

I think if you at least beat the closing line, you'd have to feel pretty good about it. But I don't normally bet early, for some of the reasons Reload mentioned. Would be very interested in what you think, Shoe.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Re: Line Value question

I asked this question a few years back and the answers were all over the MAP. With the Big Dance comming up and so many unknown teams taking the court, these lines will fly.

If a game opens 141 and closes 147 and I go over 144 is that a good line or bad line?? Or on the side a game opens 6 and closes 9 and I lay 7.5, is that a good line or not?? Or even just a smaller range, open 6 close 8 and I lay -7??

Any time I beat the closing line I am a happy camper...

I'd gladly take all of the positions in your example and I'd also be willing to bet that if you consistently beat the closing numbers by 1 1/2-3 points (as is the case with your examples), you will be a lifetime winner at sports betting...

THE SHRINK

 

[munson15]

Re: Line Value question

Shrink, would there be any significance to beating the OPENING number by at least 2 points on sides? To use Shoe's example in reverse, the line opens 6, closes 8 and I'm +8. Thanks.

 

[raycabino]

Re: Line Value question

Beating the closer is way better than beating the opener IMO. An opener means close to nothing especially in a small market like crap conference hoops. Therefore I would be happy with all the bets above.

 

[shoebox]

Re: Line Value question

So far the answers are different this time around, I agree with the posts so far, I am trying to beat the closing line consistently and not worry so much about the openers. Last time around there were a ton of guys saying if you dont get the BEST possible line at all times u are making a bad bet.

 

[raycabino]

Re: Line Value question

So far the answers are different this time around, I agree with the posts so far, I am trying to beat the closing line consistently and not worry so much about the openers. Last time around there were a ton of guys saying if you dont get the BEST possible line at all times u are making a bad bet.

That must have been the duck. Quack quack.

 

[raycabino]

Re: Line Value question

Its pretty simple when comparing openers to closers. Openers are created by a couple guys and closers are created by the other million people interested in sports.:+clueless

 

[Reload]

Re: Line Value question

Its pretty simple when comparing openers to closers. Openers are created by a couple guys and closers are created by the other million people interested in sports.:+clueless

Good point here, ray. I also feel it can depend on the sport. In college hoops, the closing line has to mean more for sure - especially in games with the smaller conferences involved that are not followed as much. On the other extreme with something like the NFL, for example, I'd say the opening numbers can mean more since the weekend square action at high limits on gameday can dictate more of where the closing line ends up.

 

[munson15]

Re: Line Value question

Its pretty simple when comparing openers to closers. Openers are created by a couple guys and closers are created by the other million people interested in sports.:+clueless

I'd like to respectfully disagree with your statement, Ray. Openers are in fact created by a 'couple of guys', but they are professionals at making a line, and if they make too many bad ones, they won't be linemakers for long. Closers are indeed created by 'the other million people interested in sports', but most of them are amateurs losing more than they are winning. So, which side would you rather be on? I'm guessing that you'll say that the line movers are pros, too. Just trying to keep the discussion going, I don't mean to come off like a smartass.:cheers

 

[jwunderdog]

Re: Line Value question

In hoops in general beating the closing line by a point will give you a +105+ 107 bet. I have never looked at the subset you are mentioning(opening lines that moved 2 or more). By the way this is for sides not totals. Totals a point is worth a lot less.

 

[raycabino]

Re: Line Value question

I'd like to respectfully disagree with your statement, Ray. Openers are in fact created by a 'couple of guys', but they are professionals at making a line, and if they make too many bad ones, they won't be linemakers for long. Closers are indeed created by 'the other million people interested in sports', but most of them are amateurs losing more than they are winning. So, which side would you rather be on? I'm guessing that you'll say that the line movers are pros, too. Just trying to keep the discussion going, I don't mean to come off like a smartass.:cheers

IMO. one of the biggest misconceptions is that square money moves #s. Though it might once in a while the majority of the line movers out there are far from square.

 

[The General]

Re: Line Value question

If a game opens 141 and closes 147 and I go over 144 is that a good line or bad line?? Or on the side a game opens 6 and closes 9 and I lay 7.5, is that a good line or not??

I refer to this as 'The best of the bet'. In your total example, I don't like 144 because I could have did better @ 141 or If I like the under, then I like 147, little else. In your side example, I don't like 7? because I missed the boat on the 6 and could have did better @ 6 or if I like the dog, then I like 9, little else. That is a basic I have used for awhile now and if I cannot get the best of the bet then I just pass unless I am craving some action which isn't the case very often except auto racing.

 

[munson15]

Re: Line Value question

In hoops in general beating the closing line by a point will give you a +105+ 107 bet. I have never looked at the subset you are mentioning(opening lines that moved 2 or more). By the way this is for sides not totals. Totals a point is worth a lot less.

Agreed that totals are less sensitive. I have had some success recently going against significant line moves (2<) on sides and was wondering what some of the more knowledgable posters would think of that strategy. My main problem has been to firmly establish a baseline for an opening line. There are so many sources that will list an 'opening' line and they vary quite a bit. Thanks for the response.

 

[Reload]

Re: Line Value question

My main problem has been to firmly establish a baseline for an opening line. There are so many sources that will list an 'opening' line and they vary quite a bit. Thanks for the response.

I agree, Munson. You can look at three different sites and get three different "opening" lines. I guess only the premium levels of line services can truly store/track/display a real actual opening line. Even then it will just be from a particular book and if a book out there that had the "real" opening line is not a part of that line service, then it only helps so much.

I always just try to keep direct tabs on the sportsbooks that tend to post lines the earliest like Bookmaker and The Greek. Just have to check every few minutes sometimes and see if the numbers are up yet, if that's what it takes.

I remember sometimes when covers.com would have brief articles written about WNBA games talking about what the line "opened" at and not being factual. I knew the line opened differently because I bet when the real opening number came out and that caused the line to move instantly a whole point to their "opening" number listed in the article.

 

[shoebox]

Re: Line Value question

If you have any questions on opening lines, this is what I do. Take CRIS and Greek, they are 1st and they are often overnights, then take Grande and Cat(or Delmar if u can find them), they are later, gameday only and will open around 10.30am est, its good to use 2 sets of openers, alot if times the overnight moves are garbage, smaller limits and the money moving them isnt as sharp as the gameday movers, use both sets of openers, overnights and gameday and those 4 books are my suggestions.

 

[munson15]

Re: Line Value question

If you have any questions on opening lines, this is what I do. Take CRIS and Greek, they are 1st and they are often overnights, then take Grande and Cat(or Delmar if u can find them), they are later, gameday only and will open around 10.30am est, its good to use 2 sets of openers, alot if times the overnight moves are garbage, smaller limits and the money moving them isnt as sharp as the gameday movers, use both sets of openers, overnights and gameday and those 4 books are my suggestions.

I appreciate the advice on establishing a starting point, but what do you think of the strategy? As an excellent capper yourself, I'm guessing your answer would be 'not much' but I'd like to be sure, if you would. Thanks.

 

[chandler1981]

Re: Line Value question

I know we all agree that getting the best possible line is probably the most important factor to wagering. I think if the line is moving in your favor, wait. Because more times than not, the line will continue to move that way. I would say in the total example(144) would be ok. If you waited you would oviously get the game at a worse line, but waiting on the 147 and locking in a 141 right away would be a good "middle play". Of course, taking the over 141 and under 147.

Its rare a line moves that much, but if you are a heavy hitter, its unlikely you lose both.