Model Building

[snake]

I was wondering what you guys use to build your models (if you're using them to make picks).

I started with a fairly basic model in Excel but have been expanding it. It's doing a good job for me but is somewhat of a pain to work with it and doesn't allow much in the way of making changes and backtesting them.

I'd like to do something more automated if I could.

I was wondering if any of you use any tools/applications that help, do you use database applications or do C++ programming. I used to like programming way back when (in the late 80s) just for fun. I started trying to learn C++ a few years back but didn't get far due to time constraints. I could try to learn it if that would be a good way to do this stuff, but a lot of C++ is about building windows environments and GUI, etc. I don't want all that. I want a way to build a database and do calculations and testing on it and selection criteria (lots of it/then type things). Ideally, I'd also like to find an automated way to populate the database with the statistical data on the teams and the odds/line data.

Anyway, I'd love to hear how others build their models and start a dialog from there on this forum.

Thanks.

 

[tool21]

Re: Model Building

Maybe i'm just full of myself but i'm sure most people on this forum won't tell you the answer to this. This is what seperates the good from the bad, IMO. I've been working on this for over 2 years and still haven't found anything that's worked good enough for me. But after you make one model, you'll think of another idea and your model will build and evolve and get better and better.

The best answer i can give you, is take your knowledge of the sport and try to break it down as far as you can. Once you break it down as far as you can you can then start to compare various parts of both teams and use past results to try to forecast the future. This information is probably very basic and doesn't leave you with much but i don't spoon feed. Develop, test, redevelop, test repeat until happy.

 

[iLoViK]

Re: Model Building

You can do a model in delphi or c++, won't take you more than a year to learn, probably even less, but in my opinion models are not worth it, you have got to have feel for the team

 

[snake]

Re: Model Building

I have a model that works fairly well.

I'm just looking for a better way to automate the whole process. Right now I just have loads of spreadsheets (1 for each day) that I keep updating and running the numbers.

I'm just trying to see what other people who use models use to build their models. I don't need any information on the model's workings at all.

I'm just wondering if there are applications out there that help automate the process, if databases are the better way to go, if programming is the ticket or if I just keep using Excel spreadsheets and spending the 30-45 minutes a day, updating and going through everything.

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: Model Building

Snake: I am working on a model, but would rather not discuss publicly...If you want to discuss privately, you could list your e-mail address
or I could leave mine.

 

[snake]

Re: Model Building

Hey Forecast,

What tools or applications are you using to build your model. I'm not looking for any of the details, statistics, calculations or anything like that at all. I'm just really looking for suggestions on whether I should be learning C++ to write a program to automate my model, keep using Excel, or if there is some other different/better way to actually create the model.

I have my model and it's working well. It just takes a lot of time to get the data situated in Excel and go through the results to make the picks.

Cheers.

 

[snake]

Re: Model Building

Ilovik,

What do you think of Delphi? I've never heard of it before. Is it easier to use and learn than C++. I have a little bit of older experience with C++, so if Delphi was much easier or better, maybe I'll try to learn that. But, if not, I'd probably just go back to C++.

Is there a way to automatically pull data off of sites like Yahoo Sports and some of the odds posting sites (say, Betus.com or something)?

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: Model Building

Snake: I am not a programmer and don't know that part of it
very well so I would not have a good opinion on that aspect...
If you are a programmer and are ever in the mood to discuss
ideas related to content, I would be willing to do so on an
e-mail basis.