The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

[Jeff Jones]

Is there possibly a bet that more incurs the wrath of Sharps other than Rob Singer's video poker strategies?

Moneyline-Favorite Parlays

I don't think so.

People I really respect tell me not to do this. That gets my attention, but not enough to deter me.

I was reading this morning's Gaming Today where even Jim Feist was railing against fave MLs. Jim's insight was that it was better to bet 1 to win 7 than 9 to win 1.

Not for the next three weeks. It's the Time of the Season.

Is there a better endorsement in ToutWorld than to have Feist telling you not to do something? I don't think so.

It's basically "take-what-they-will-give-you," versus gambling.

I just bet one day, and then go the next day and pick up my meager winnings. No need to even listening to radio genius.

Of course, you lose at times. South Alabamy wounded me last night. I had to throw out a ticket. We do a lot of ticket permutations beyond S. Alabama.

There is really no genius here if your ego will let you just take small gains.

Try it. If you lose, you can reject it, and go back to losing at your own sharp analysis.

 

[ArchieBunker]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

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EOG Gadfly/Curmudgeon

Join Date: Aug 27, 2007
Location: The South Strip
Posts: 2,444


</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1122744 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 1px solid"> <!-- google_ad_section_start -->The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1><!-- google_ad_section_start -->Is there possibly a bet that more incurs the wrath of Sharps other than Rob Singer's video poker strategies?

Moneyline-Favorite Parlays

I don't think so.

People I really respect tell me not to do this. That gets my attention, but not enough to deter me.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


If you don't listen to them then you don't really respect their opinion or your own ego is so big that you think you're smarter than they are. I guess you and Feist have something else in common besides losing.

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I agree Jeff. The Zags on the ML last night was just toooooo easy. I am headed to South Point to cash my ticket after I get off work. That was sure easier than having to flip burgers for 8 hours. EASY MONEY BABY!

(I only had to lay -330, how easy was that?)

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Nobody is stomping up and down, requiring anybody to play my MLs.

I likes my chances for the next three weeks. It takes me five minutes to round-robin and round-round robin and round-round-round robin all the big faves

It's every year. The books give me money this time of year. Who knows? Maybe not this year.

I don't spend a lot of time "breaking down the games."

I know it bothers the Sharp Elders or the everyday genius sharp posters.

But that makes up for losing.

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I agree Jeff. The Zags on the ML last night was just toooooo easy. I am headed to South Point to cash my ticket after I get off work. That was sure easier than having to flip burgers for 8 hours. EASY MONEY BABY!

(I only had to lay -330, how easy was that?)

Houston, we have a problem.

I just got back from South Point. I handed my ticket to the writer eagerly awaiting to collect $1290 on my Zags ML bet. ($990 lay / $300 profit)

In goes the ticket.....nothing. He tries it again...nothing. He punches it in manually......nothing. He then looks at the ticket and says "This ticket is not a winner, son". I said "Why sure it is, there is no way the Zags could possibly lose outright in the Conference Tournament Finals as a -7.5 favorite." He says "I dont know what to tell you, kid." He then hands me back my losing ticket and gives me a free "drink coupon".

At least I won something.


Oh, the perils of ML wagering.

 

[Journeyman]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

no coin-ki-dink either that ML Dsethi had a bad night.

it was bound to happen.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I'm lost.

Didn't the ML favorite win (San Diego) ?

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I'm lost.

Didn't the ML favorite win (San Diego) ?

San Diego would be the ML Dog.

Oh well, I will ask my manager if I can pick up an extra shift or two this weekend.

Back to spreadsheets and 1-800 #'s

Later.

 

[The Great One]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

If I am going to take a ML fave. it sure as hell will not be on the road when they are 1 win away from getting in the tourney when the other team is already easily in.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

No, Great One.. Make it a big one.

You cannot take a ML favoirte. You might win.

Sharps may go 0-5 tomorrow and you win.

But you will still be on the wrong side, you idiot.

They will begin again this evening analyzing more wisdom to help the oppressed idiot masses/minorities again tomorrow. They know WHO will win tonight.

The Sharps are the protectors of sports gambling.

 

[The Great One]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

What? Idiot?


All I know is you can be the sharp and so can everyone else, I'll take a win over that label everytime.

It's like the classic homeboy. They rather lose and look good than win and look bad.

Just don't see why someone would take Gonzaga like that. What I said is correct.

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Nobody is stomping up and down, requiring anybody to play my MLs.

I likes my chances for the next three weeks. It takes me five minutes to round-robin and round-round robin and round-round-round robin all the big faves

It's every year. The books give me money this time of year. Who knows? Maybe not this year.

I don't spend a lot of time "breaking down the games."

I know it bothers the Sharp Elders or the everyday genius sharp posters.

But that makes up for losing.

Using your logic, I'd round-robin the Lakers, Suns, Hilltoppers and Portland St. and try to pick up 1/2 unit? Trying to follow here. Are you capping the games, or just taking the biggest faves on the $ line? They would be the 4 I'd be the most sure of tonight. GL.

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I have played a lot of moneylines (tens of thousands) in my time and I don't recall ever playing one moneyline favorite.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

In the NBA, Pacers, Wizards. Suns, Lakers. (all the big ML's) won tonight.

In the NCAA, Butler, W. Kentucky, San Jose St., Portland St. (all the big MLs ) won tonight.

Now I understand that for some of you the need to appear anonymously sharp is much greater than your need for winning money, so you go ahead and agonize and analyze each and every game.

Then tell me tomorrow how you "almost" won.

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Did you play my parlay, Jeff?:+textinb3

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

In the NBA, Pacers, Wizards. Suns, Lakers. (all the big ML's) won tonight.

In the NCAA, Butler, W. Kentucky, San Jose St., Portland St. (all the big MLs ) won tonight.

Now I understand that for some of you the need to appear anonymously sharp is much greater than your need for winning money, so you go ahead and agonize and analyze each and every game.

Then tell me tomorrow how you "almost" won.

Unfortunately JJ, you have to bet the games before they start, not after they're finished. Most of the games are already over but I found 4 big ML favs still available to bet at BetJm...
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH vAlign=top align=left width=200>Date Time / Reference</TH><TH vAlign=top align=left width=450>Description</TH></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR></TD></TR><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #1
3/12/2008 4:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Pittsburgh
Money Line -450 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #2
3/12/2008 6:20 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Marquette
Money Line -700 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #3
3/12/2008 5:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Miami Ohio
Money Line -450 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #4
3/12/2008 6:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Cal Irvine
Money Line -700 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2>Risking $100.00 To Win $95.11 USD </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
...now I didn't bet it, but that's what it pays if it wins, so let's see how it does tonight. I prefer to bet just the opposite, ie. ML dogs and play a 4 or 5 team round robin. When they come in, the payoffs are incredible. Good luck with your MLfav parlays, but I'll stick with betting the ML dogs.

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Just to expand on this because I think it's a very important betting concept especially right before March Madness begins, here is a typical round robin ML dog bet for me....

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH vAlign=top align=left width=200>Date Time / Reference</TH><TH vAlign=top align=left width=450>Description</TH></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR></TD></TR><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #1
3/12/2008 5:50 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Round Robin with 3's
NC Charlotte
Money Line +115 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #2
3/12/2008 4:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Tulane
Money Line +115 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #3
3/12/2008 8:20 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Cal Riverside
Money Line +145 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #4
3/12/2008 6:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Washington U
Money Line +120 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #5
3/12/2008 4:00 PM - (PST)</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Mount St Marys
Money Line +125 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2>Risking $100.00 To Win $1,021.88 USD </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

...now I didn't bet any of these games for 2 reasons. One, I didn't really like any of the ML dogs; and two, and more importantly, because the ML's were all artificially low. For instance, both UNC-C and Tulane were +2, but only +115 ML; both MStM and Wash were +2.5 but only +125 and +120 respectively; and Cal-Riv was +3.5 and +145. I've seen +120/+125 for +2 spreads; +130/+135 for +2.5; and +150 for +3.5 so none of these ML's really offer any value. Sometimes I'll play a ML dog just for the value, for instance tonight I'm close to taking NAU +175 for a +4.5 spread against Port St. Look at the difference between Cal-Riv at +3.5 and +135 ML and the one point with NAU +4.5 but a 30 cent ML increase. There should be a lot of nice ML dogs over the next few days in the conference tournaments and over the next few weeks in the NCAA tourney...pick your spots wisely and good luck!

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Unfortunately JJ, you have to bet the games before they start, not after they're finished. Most of the games are already over but I found 4 big ML favs still available to bet at BetJm...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH vAlign=top align=left width=200>Date Time / Reference</TH><TH vAlign=top align=left width=450>Description</TH></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR></TD></TR><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #1
3/12/2008 4:00 PM - (PST)
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Pittsburgh
Money Line -450 for Game

<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #2
3/12/2008 6:20 PM - (PST)
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Marquette
Money Line -700 for Game

<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #3
3/12/2008 5:00 PM - (PST)
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Miami Ohio
Money Line -450 for Game

<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><!-- FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left>Selection #4
3/12/2008 6:00 PM - (PST)
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=left>Basketball NCAA
Wager Typearlay
Cal Irvine
Money Line -700 for Game
<HR></TD></TR><!-- End FormatWagerDescription --><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle colSpan=2>Risking $100.00 To Win $95.11 USD </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
...now I didn't bet it, but that's what it pays if it wins, so let's see how it does tonight. I prefer to bet just the opposite, ie. ML dogs and play a 4 or 5 team round robin. When they come in, the payoffs are incredible. Good luck with your MLfav parlays, but I'll stick with betting the ML dogs.

But I have all those teams and all the other big-time faves who won earlier.

I keep telling you that I'm not requiring that you do this.

But everyday, we get some idiot who feels the need to disprove the strategy. Today it is Pioneer.

Is there somewhere I can find Pioneer's documented gambling record?

Where does he get off giving gambling advice?

Too funny.

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

But I have all those teams and all the other big-time faves who won earlier.

I keep telling you that I'm not requiring that you do this.

But everyday, we get some idiot who feels the need to disprove the strategy. Today it is Pioneer.

Is there somewhere I can find Pioneer's documented gambling record?

Where does he get off giving gambling advice?

Too funny.

No, what's funny is your lack of reading comprehension.

1) You say you have bet all these ML favs but you haven't posted ANY bets before gametime, and then you have the gall to ask for my documented gambling record?
2) I never said that you were requiring me to bet your way; I simply stated that I chose to take the opposite tack.
3) I never said that you were an idiot but just in case anyone missed it, I did imply just that. Your system of betting ML favs is similar to betting 3 to 5 horse favs to show, risking $200 to win $10. Hopefully you end up under a bridge someday.
4) Let me repeat my advice...it is much better to bet the ML dogs than the ML favs over the long run!

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Ok, the games are over. I don't really ever try to attract airhead advice, but it seems to happen.

"Pioneer" decided he would take his shot today. He picked my games for me, and his games. And, he picked the amount.

Let's review, Mr. Trump.

Team Jeff, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100 won $95.11.

Team Pioneer, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100, lost $100. He is going to make it up, IN THE LONG RUN..

I now have idiots making money for me. Please, please, tell me what not to bet.

You can't make it up.

 

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Nice win Jeff. Can you get the tip when we go to Ruths Chris next week? I followed Pioneer instead of you today and, as a result, I am gonna be a little "light" when I get to Vegas.

Thanks for understanding.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Sure, I'll give them a tip.

"Take the Salamanders"

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Ok, the games are over. I don't really ever try to attract airhead advice, but it seems to happen.

"Pioneer" decided he would take his shot today. He picked my games for me, and his games. And, he picked the amount.

Let's review, Mr. Trump.

Team Jeff, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100 won $95.11.

Team Pioneer, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100, lost $100. He is going to make it up, IN THE LONG RUN..

I now have idiots making money for me. Please, please, tell me what not to bet.

You can't make it up.

Good morning JJ and the forum,
Thanks for proving in black and white that you are indeed clueless on so many levels. Let's review your post, Mr. Jones.
First of all, the games were not over when you posted at 901 PM last night...Cal-Riv vs Cal-Poly Slo was still in progress. Even an airhead like yourself should have known that, just go to one of the many online scoreboards. The fact that you don't even know a simple fact like this should automatically disqualify you from giving gambling advice in this forum, if not outright banishment for being irreparably stupid!
Second, yes, I, pioneer, did indeed pick your games for you yesterday. And why was that? Because you came in here at 1257 AM yesterday and picked all the games that were already over from the night before. I mentioned to you that in the real world, (admittedly, something you seem completely oblivious to), one must pick the games BEFORE they are played, but apparently that went right over your thick skull.
Third, using your formula for betting success, ie. taking all the ML favs, you would have had 4 teams, Pitt and Miami at -450, and Marq and Cal-Irv at -700. I arbitrarily chose a bet size of $100, the bet size is not important just as long as it is the same size as the bet I made on the ML dogs, which it was. So you risked $100 with a chance to win $95.11, and you did indeed win. Congratulations...big score.
Now using my example, a 5-team ML dog round robin with all the threes, and betting the same amount, ie. $100, one would have won $454 for a $354 net win. As anyone with a modicom of gambling intelligence (which admittedly excludes you, JJ) knows, a 5-team round robin with all the threes is actually 10 3-team parlays. If all 5 teams would have won, then one would have won the $1021.88 listed on the bet ticket.

ps. to OSUCOWBOYS: Since you followed me last night, and since you delight in posting your huge wagers, I'm sure you wagered more than the $100, and thus won much more than the $354, so you can well afford both the tip and the meal at Ruth Chris next week. You're welcome!

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

I'm an idiot, and I posted a 4-team ML parlay winner two nights ago, and not even a pat on the back! :houra What do you have to do to get noticed in your threads, JJ? And yes, I did play it.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Ok, the games are over. I don't really ever try to attract airhead advice, but it seems to happen.

"Pioneer" decided he would take his shot today. He picked my games for me, and his games. And, he picked the amount.

Let's review, Mr. Trump.

Team Jeff, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100 won $95.11.

Team Pioneer, with an assigned Pioneer bet of $100, lost $100. He is going to make it up, IN THE LONG RUN..

I now have idiots making money for me. Please, please, tell me what not to bet.

You can't make it up.

Oops! What you can't make up is that team Pioneer picked a helluva 5-team round robin, and Jeff thought it lost money! 3 points from hitting it all ways! :+excited-

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

BTW, in the spirit of this political season, I'm endorsing BOTH strategies since they BOTH won!!!:LMAO

 

[5teamparlay]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Beware of this strategy in CONF tournies as they are another animal all together.

- NO HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
- Teams already in tourney not as motivated


I PICK from a smaller bunch at this point as the neutral court comes into play and some lower teams are playing for their season.

 

[ouch]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Not to mention that you never know how teams with tired legs will do playing two, three, or four days in a row. Little injuries do not get to heal overnight, and there is little time for the coaches to implement any strategy since there are no practices when you are playing on consecutive days.

 

[The Great One]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

Of course, these will not do good usually. I give Kansas/Texas as the best shot at going according to seeds and the only 1 vs. 2 seed championship match up of the major conferences. They both are still trying position themselves for a possible 1 and in the past, it tells you they actually care about the tourney while teams like Carolina don't put alot of weight in it as ol Roy thinks it tired his guys out too much when they will have to turn around and play 4 days later after just playing 3 days in a row ......and for what.

 

[pioneer]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

BTW, in the spirit of this political season, I'm endorsing BOTH strategies since they BOTH won!!!

What exactly is JJ's strategy? All I can see is that he comes in here after the games and tells us which teams we should have bet. JJ has NEVER posted a winner here before the game started. I think even I could do alright if I could pick the games after they're over. I'm not complaining though, it has been really nice today with JJ in abstentia.

 

[munson15]

Re: The Dreaded Big-Time Favorite Moneyline Parlay

What exactly is JJ's strategy? All I can see is that he comes in here after the games and tells us which teams we should have bet. JJ has NEVER posted a winner here before the game started. I think even I could do alright if I could pick the games after they're over. I'm not complaining though, it has been really nice today with JJ in abstentia.

I guess I was referring to you taking small ML dogs and making a nice round-robin out of them, and his taking large ML faves and parlaying them. I know he hasn't posted them ahead of time, but the example I posted/bet could be the type of play he likes, is all I was saying. I like yours better because of the potential payout, but wouldn't dismiss his out of hand.