Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Re: Fantasy Football News 2007
Chief Concern
For how bad many of the top running backs have been this season, injuries have not really been the overriding source of problems.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL] was down for a stretch with a groin problem and Frank Gore missed a game last week because of his ankle. Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney also had their minor issues, but you have to go down to the Saints' Deuce McAllister and Miami's Ronnie Brown to find debilitating injuries this year. Both tore ACLs, but McAllister already was in a split-time situation and Brown was not an elite player coming into the year.
But Larry Johnson changes that. His is the first apparent major injury to the top backs, with reports suggesting he would be done for the season because of a sprained or broken foot. His replacement is more unusual in that Priest Holmes, who did not play for nearly two years before last month, is taking over.
Johnson clearly was not having a good season. He was on pace for barely 1,100 yards and eight total TDs after back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons with at least 19 TDs in each. But he still was one of a dozen or so backs with the potential for a great game any given week.
And that makes replacing him tricky. If you lost him, you might be happy to rid yourself of such a frustrating player, but there are not many guys at his level. Holmes is no longer one there. He is a complementary player at best and coach Herm Edwards says he plans to use Holmes as such, spelling him frequently with rookie Kolby Smith.
Of course, Edwards has said lots of things that he has not always done. I would pick up both Holmes and Smith, if only to see what they can do. But right now, I'd rather have Jesse Chatman than either Chiefs back. The Dolphins have been a better running team than the Chiefs, who are 30th in the league, and Chatman gets almost all of Miami's running back touches.
So panic over losing your first-round back or take his injury as just another of the travails of getting through the season? If you're still in contention, you probably are doing it mostly without Johnson. Panic is not the answer. He was, however, almost an automatic starter and those are hard to replace.
You'll want to investigate trades if you do not have much depth. The loss in production does not equal the loss in name value. Thirteen other backs have more rushing yards and 18 have at least as many total TDs. You're talking more about finding a No. 2 back rather than replacing a first-round stud. And take any Chiefs' optimism with a grain of salt. This has the potential to be a devastating injury even if the team says he can return.
Here is my take on some other players whose value is changing going into Week 10.
ON THE RISE
Warrick Dunn. Dunn has not had back-to-back 100-yard games since the first two weeks of 2006, but that is what he is going for against the struggling Panthers. He had a season-high 5.0 yards a carry in Atlanta's first game against Carolina, which has allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards in three home games. The great part about Dunn this week is that backup Jerious Norwood has a bad ankle so Dunn should get almost all of the carries.
Justin Fargas. The Raiders finally pulled the plug on LaMont Jordan and let Fargas go off with a 104-yard game last week against the Texans. Now the Bears' come in with their 26th-ranked run defense, giving up 130.9 yards a game. The Raiders still have the fourth-best rushing offense and aren't having any luck throwing. Fargas will get 20-plus carries again.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]. We told you a couple of weeks ago to grab Henry and he could slide right into a significant role if Chad Johnson's neck injury keeps him out of a game or two. Henry is a big-time TD threat - nine of his 36 catches last year were for scores. He would have some issues with conditioning if he had to start right away, but he is a low No. 2 receiver or decent flex option against a bad Ravens secondary.
J.P. Losman. This is kind of a no-brainer after he threw for 295 yards against the Bengals and gets another start this week against the Dolphins. Grab him if he still is floating around out there; he also will be a good play in a later game against Cleveland and a second against Miami. You know about the surge he and Lee Evans had in the second half of last season. They are on their way to another one.
David Patten. The Saints are on a big-time roll with 30.5 points over their past four games and Drew Brees completing 71.5% of his passes in that time. Marques Colston is the obvious play and Patten is next with at least 81 yards in three of the past four starts. The Saints' schedule is easy the rest of the way, starting with the 0-8 Rams this week. Patten is not a top TD threat, but you should find a way to play him.
LenDale White. With three 100-yard games in a row, White is turning into one of the big surprises of the season as well as somebody increasingly difficult to bench. The matchup against the tough Jaguars defense does not look great this week, but the Saints hammered the Jaguars last week and the Titans ran for 282 yards on them in the season opener. It also is unclear who the team's backup is now with Chris Brown coming off injury and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] dealing with his suspension.
TAKING A DIVE
Shaun Alexander. If you're looking for a reason that Alexander is about to crank around his season, here is one: I'm finally giving up on him. Nobody has frustrated me, or nearly every other fantasy owner, more than Alexander. But whenever I dump a guy, he usually seems to go nuts. He does have another decent matchup against another bad defense this week -- and one in prime time, which he loves so much. But there are more injuries, more talk about the Seahawks passing more and talk that Maurice Morris will snag some carries. You can have him.
Donald Driver. The TDs have disappeared and you can thank Greg Jennings for that. Jennings has six TDs in his six games this season; no other Packer has more than two receiving TDs. Driver's 99 yards last week were his most since Week 3, but he has fallen into the trap as the safe, reliable receiver. With the Packers hitting on so many big passing plays recently, that has cut down on Driver's opportunities, so much that he is a risky play even against a bad Minnesota pass defense.
Brandon Marshall. Even if Jay Cutler doesn't miss any time with his leg injury (and he could be a game-time decision), the Broncos are falling apart. They have lost five of six, including two losses by at least 37 points in their past four games, and as we mentioned last week, who are the veteran leaders to rally around? Marshall has been putting up decent yards but is not scoring much. Denver can not reasonably expect a turnaround on the road in Kansas City and I would sit Marshall, despite the Chiefs' propensity for giving up big passing plays.
Willis McGahee. It would be his luck that as soon as a brilliant matchup rolls around, he gets be limited after getting dinged late in a blowout loss. We all know how great any running back should be against the Bengals, and McGahee has been on a little roll, with TDs in three consecutive games. The Ravens are atrocious but even that is not enough reason to sit one of their backs against Cincinnati. McGahee's concussion is and you'll have to monitor what should be an automatic play into the weekend.
Philip Rivers. Rivers' inconsistent season continued last week in Minnesota, but that inconsistency might be the biggest reason that he could actually have a good game against the Colts. Counting on a guy because he is coming off a horrible game and has yet to go two games in a row without a two-TD performance is pretty flimsy, however. The Colts do not have to prove anything more to me defensively and it is clear that something still stinks with the Chargers' offense. Rivers' next five starts (vs. Colts, at Jacksonville, vs. Baltimore, at Kansas City, at Tennessee) all are unfavorable.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL]. The question every week seems to be how far to drop Smith. With the possibility that undrafted rookie Matt Moore might start at quarterback this week, he falls further into the unknown. Smith's only good game since Jake Delhomme went out was with Vinny Testaverde under center and Smith has managed an incredibly bad five catches for 33 yards the past two games. If Testaverde can't play, you'll want to sit Smith. Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall definitely could get the last word on Smith this time.
Chief Concern
For how bad many of the top running backs have been this season, injuries have not really been the overriding source of problems.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL] was down for a stretch with a groin problem and Frank Gore missed a game last week because of his ankle. Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney also had their minor issues, but you have to go down to the Saints' Deuce McAllister and Miami's Ronnie Brown to find debilitating injuries this year. Both tore ACLs, but McAllister already was in a split-time situation and Brown was not an elite player coming into the year.
But Larry Johnson changes that. His is the first apparent major injury to the top backs, with reports suggesting he would be done for the season because of a sprained or broken foot. His replacement is more unusual in that Priest Holmes, who did not play for nearly two years before last month, is taking over.
Johnson clearly was not having a good season. He was on pace for barely 1,100 yards and eight total TDs after back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons with at least 19 TDs in each. But he still was one of a dozen or so backs with the potential for a great game any given week.
And that makes replacing him tricky. If you lost him, you might be happy to rid yourself of such a frustrating player, but there are not many guys at his level. Holmes is no longer one there. He is a complementary player at best and coach Herm Edwards says he plans to use Holmes as such, spelling him frequently with rookie Kolby Smith.
Of course, Edwards has said lots of things that he has not always done. I would pick up both Holmes and Smith, if only to see what they can do. But right now, I'd rather have Jesse Chatman than either Chiefs back. The Dolphins have been a better running team than the Chiefs, who are 30th in the league, and Chatman gets almost all of Miami's running back touches.
So panic over losing your first-round back or take his injury as just another of the travails of getting through the season? If you're still in contention, you probably are doing it mostly without Johnson. Panic is not the answer. He was, however, almost an automatic starter and those are hard to replace.
You'll want to investigate trades if you do not have much depth. The loss in production does not equal the loss in name value. Thirteen other backs have more rushing yards and 18 have at least as many total TDs. You're talking more about finding a No. 2 back rather than replacing a first-round stud. And take any Chiefs' optimism with a grain of salt. This has the potential to be a devastating injury even if the team says he can return.
Here is my take on some other players whose value is changing going into Week 10.
ON THE RISE
Warrick Dunn. Dunn has not had back-to-back 100-yard games since the first two weeks of 2006, but that is what he is going for against the struggling Panthers. He had a season-high 5.0 yards a carry in Atlanta's first game against Carolina, which has allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards in three home games. The great part about Dunn this week is that backup Jerious Norwood has a bad ankle so Dunn should get almost all of the carries.
Justin Fargas. The Raiders finally pulled the plug on LaMont Jordan and let Fargas go off with a 104-yard game last week against the Texans. Now the Bears' come in with their 26th-ranked run defense, giving up 130.9 yards a game. The Raiders still have the fourth-best rushing offense and aren't having any luck throwing. Fargas will get 20-plus carries again.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]. We told you a couple of weeks ago to grab Henry and he could slide right into a significant role if Chad Johnson's neck injury keeps him out of a game or two. Henry is a big-time TD threat - nine of his 36 catches last year were for scores. He would have some issues with conditioning if he had to start right away, but he is a low No. 2 receiver or decent flex option against a bad Ravens secondary.
J.P. Losman. This is kind of a no-brainer after he threw for 295 yards against the Bengals and gets another start this week against the Dolphins. Grab him if he still is floating around out there; he also will be a good play in a later game against Cleveland and a second against Miami. You know about the surge he and Lee Evans had in the second half of last season. They are on their way to another one.
David Patten. The Saints are on a big-time roll with 30.5 points over their past four games and Drew Brees completing 71.5% of his passes in that time. Marques Colston is the obvious play and Patten is next with at least 81 yards in three of the past four starts. The Saints' schedule is easy the rest of the way, starting with the 0-8 Rams this week. Patten is not a top TD threat, but you should find a way to play him.
LenDale White. With three 100-yard games in a row, White is turning into one of the big surprises of the season as well as somebody increasingly difficult to bench. The matchup against the tough Jaguars defense does not look great this week, but the Saints hammered the Jaguars last week and the Titans ran for 282 yards on them in the season opener. It also is unclear who the team's backup is now with Chris Brown coming off injury and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] dealing with his suspension.
TAKING A DIVE
Shaun Alexander. If you're looking for a reason that Alexander is about to crank around his season, here is one: I'm finally giving up on him. Nobody has frustrated me, or nearly every other fantasy owner, more than Alexander. But whenever I dump a guy, he usually seems to go nuts. He does have another decent matchup against another bad defense this week -- and one in prime time, which he loves so much. But there are more injuries, more talk about the Seahawks passing more and talk that Maurice Morris will snag some carries. You can have him.
Donald Driver. The TDs have disappeared and you can thank Greg Jennings for that. Jennings has six TDs in his six games this season; no other Packer has more than two receiving TDs. Driver's 99 yards last week were his most since Week 3, but he has fallen into the trap as the safe, reliable receiver. With the Packers hitting on so many big passing plays recently, that has cut down on Driver's opportunities, so much that he is a risky play even against a bad Minnesota pass defense.
Brandon Marshall. Even if Jay Cutler doesn't miss any time with his leg injury (and he could be a game-time decision), the Broncos are falling apart. They have lost five of six, including two losses by at least 37 points in their past four games, and as we mentioned last week, who are the veteran leaders to rally around? Marshall has been putting up decent yards but is not scoring much. Denver can not reasonably expect a turnaround on the road in Kansas City and I would sit Marshall, despite the Chiefs' propensity for giving up big passing plays.
Willis McGahee. It would be his luck that as soon as a brilliant matchup rolls around, he gets be limited after getting dinged late in a blowout loss. We all know how great any running back should be against the Bengals, and McGahee has been on a little roll, with TDs in three consecutive games. The Ravens are atrocious but even that is not enough reason to sit one of their backs against Cincinnati. McGahee's concussion is and you'll have to monitor what should be an automatic play into the weekend.
Philip Rivers. Rivers' inconsistent season continued last week in Minnesota, but that inconsistency might be the biggest reason that he could actually have a good game against the Colts. Counting on a guy because he is coming off a horrible game and has yet to go two games in a row without a two-TD performance is pretty flimsy, however. The Colts do not have to prove anything more to me defensively and it is clear that something still stinks with the Chargers' offense. Rivers' next five starts (vs. Colts, at Jacksonville, vs. Baltimore, at Kansas City, at Tennessee) all are unfavorable.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL]. The question every week seems to be how far to drop Smith. With the possibility that undrafted rookie Matt Moore might start at quarterback this week, he falls further into the unknown. Smith's only good game since Jake Delhomme went out was with Vinny Testaverde under center and Smith has managed an incredibly bad five catches for 33 yards the past two games. If Testaverde can't play, you'll want to sit Smith. Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall definitely could get the last word on Smith this time.