There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I have finally come to that realization. After losing all five of my basketball bets tonight as a result of a last shot within 10 seconds of the game ending, I can't see how a case can be made EVER in this sport to bet it.

Why do people even bet basketball? 90% of the games come down to that final shot that will either hand them the game or they lose it.

1. I have Umass +4. They have three decent shots for a three in the final 10 secsonds that would have given me the push. They miss them all, and I lose a huge bet.

2. I have the Clippers +6 first half. LA is only down 1 with under 30 secs WITH THE BALL. Sac makes a 3 to go up 4. With 2 f 'ing seconds left, Sac blocks the LA shot and turns around and hits a three with no time left. I lose a huge bet by one point.

3. I had UNDER 98 Chi/Clev first half. I have a push at 98, but Clev hits a jump shot with 1 sec left. I lose a medium bet by a bucket.

4. I turn around and bet UNDER 98.5 Chi/Clev second half. The game is at 97 with Clev holding for the last shot. They miss it and with 3 secs, miss the rebound and foul Chi. He makes them both, and I lose by half a point. Mother f 'er.

5. And the worst of them all. I have Houston -1/2 in the second half. Houston needs to win by 10. They are up 10 with 14 secs left AND THE BALL. They try to dribble out the clock but some idiot tells Portland to foul. Why? WHY!?? Hou makes them both to go up 12 and with under 5 secs left, Portland comes back and hits a meaningless three to cost me the game by another half point. The worst of it is that Portland still tried to foul after the made shot, hacking the crap out of the guy, but this time the refs let it go as time expired. I am still fuming over that game. It was my biggest game of the night.


So my question is, regardless of which side you were on for these idiot games, why did you bet them? The bulk of NBA games come down to the last shot and a coin flip. I'd put out there that there is no way to handicap this sport with any success. Those that do are only regressing from the mean and will snap back if given enough games.

By the way, I was 5-0 in the damn MLB. Why the FUCK am I wasting away that profit with this bush league shit. It was a need to have action I guess. I am done. No more NBA.

Thank god baseball is here.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->There is no way to be a successful hoops capper."

"I
have finally come to that realization. After losing all five of my"

I see the Fezzik syndrome is in full effect here! :+textinb3
 

TonyMar

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I have finally come to that realization. After losing all five of my basketball bets tonight as a result of a last shot within 10 seconds of the game ending, I can't see how a case can be made EVER in this sport to bet it.

Why do people even bet basketball? 90% of the games come down to that final shot that will either hand them the game or they lose it.

1. I have Umass +4. They have three decent shots for a three in the final 10 secsonds that would have given me the push. They miss them all, and I lose a huge bet.

2. I have the Clippers +6 first half. LA is only down 1 with under 30 secs WITH THE BALL. Sac makes a 3 to go up 4. With 2 f 'ing seconds left, Sac blocks the LA shot and turns around and hits a three with no time left. I lose a huge bet by one point.

3. I had UNDER 98 Chi/Clev first half. I have a push at 98, but Clev hits a jump shot with 1 sec left. I lose a medium bet by a bucket.

4. I turn around and bet UNDER 98.5 Chi/Clev second half. The game is at 97 with Clev holding for the last shot. They miss it and with 3 secs, miss the rebound and foul Chi. He makes them both, and I lose by half a point. Mother f 'er.

5. And the worst of them all. I have Houston -1/2 in the second half. Houston needs to win by 10. They are up 10 with 14 secs left AND THE BALL. They try to dribble out the clock but some idiot tells Portland to foul. Why? WHY!?? Hou makes them both to go up 12 and with under 5 secs left, Portland comes back and hits a meaningless three to cost me the game by another half point. The worst of it is that Portland still tried to foul after the made shot, hacking the crap out of the guy, but this time the refs let it go as time expired. I am still fuming over that game. It was my biggest game of the night.


So my question is, regardless of which side you were on for these idiot games, why did you bet them? The bulk of NBA games come down to the last shot and a coin flip. I'd put out there that there is no way to handicap this sport with any success. Those that do are only regressing from the mean and will snap back if given enough games.

By the way, I was 5-0 in the damn MLB. Why the FUCK am I wasting away that profit with this bush league shit. It was a need to have action I guess. I am done. No more NBA.

Thank god baseball is here.

Your number 5 there was pretty sick...couple of things...

First, be glad that you did not have the Under for the game...that Aldridge three put it over the closing number...some may have middled.

Second, you forgot to mention that after those two Brooks FT's...Portland went for a deuce in the lane... had the ball blocked off the shot clock, and then got it back on an inbounds play...which led to Aldridge's three from the top of the arc.

I did see the same thing after that three...the Blazers were fouling Brooks and nothing was called...guess the referees wanted to get the hell out of there.

The NBA playoffs will be here soon...maybe some better betting situations there.

BOL
 

Junior

EOG Veteran
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Thats funny, I get plays from a paid tout who is 174 -120 +178 1/2 units in NBA playing 5 units a game average.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Thats funny, I get plays from a paid tout who is 174 -120 +178 1/2 units in NBA playing 5 units a game average.

Did you just fall off the turnip truck?

All touts are at least 174-120.

That's why they are touting. They just want to help YOU!
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Well Aces, at least you are onto one sure thing: MLB is indeed the easiest sport to consistently make money on. (Nowadays it's really the only sport I regularly bet.)

But as to basketball, there's a huge difference between betting college and the NBA. Frankly, I don't know how anyone can be consistent betting the college game; I gave up after 20 years of trying.

The NBA is a different story. Pick and choose, be prepared to go days at a time without a bet, and you can make money. Problem: few gamblers have that kind of discipline... and then Donahy (sp?) came along.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I have yet to have a losing season at hoops posting on the forums. Maybe this will be the year, but ain't raising the white flag yet. All I can say is, the numbers are obviously tight. I thought I would nail the over by luck on the Portland game but refs decided not to call obvious foul, not much you can do there. Some people would love all of these games falling on or near the numbers. Better luck to you and me. Don't give up and start playing poker. Playoffs may offer better opportunities. And there is always bases.


Best Wishes...OF :cheers :thumbsup
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->There is no way to be a successful hoops capper."

"I have finally come to that realization. After losing all five of my"

I see the Fezzik syndrome is in full effect here! :+textinb3

I actually had to look twice to make sure it was not Fezzik posting.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I disagree with the initial post. You can be successful at hoops. Yes, you will have plenty of games that come down to the last shot where you win or lose by a hook. But the idea is that you cap well enough and use good enough money management so that situations like that even out over the long run. It also emphasizes how important every half point or point is in basketball. If a line has already moved out of your favor, consider passing. Lots of games on the board, lines only coming out a day before the game, injuries, situational spots, halftime lines, different lines at different books, etc. make hoops better than a lot of wagers out there.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I disagree with the initial post. You can be successful at hoops. Yes, you will have plenty of games that come down to the last shot where you win or lose by a hook. But the idea is that you cap well enough and use good enough money management so that situations like that even out over the long run. It also emphasizes how important every half point or point is in basketball. If a line has already moved out of your favor, consider passing. Lots of games on the board, lines only coming out a day before the game, injuries, situational spots, halftime lines, different lines at different books, etc. make hoops better than a lot of wagers out there.

Very good post. Like the Fezzik crack also, but that would have been followed by a challenge in unwinnable sports and a new direction, poker.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I have had a chance to settle down a bit. I was FUMING after the Houston/Portland debacle. The humorous thing is that I did turn to poker, before reading any of this. i just spent the last 7 hours at an 8/16 table at Casino Arizona. I walked away with $231 for my effort. It cut into my loss a little bit and let me blow off some steam. I am not doing it in any sort of professional way obviously though (especially at those limits).

I still maintain MLB is the easiest sport to handicap. I might do better at hoops if I didn't have to make like 15 bets a night on every half, every game, every tv event, etc. I know, the cardinal sins of a square. I dont usually consider myself square, but for some reason, hoops brings it out of me.

Now I need to get some sleep - after putting in the AM baseball.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Do you also post under the handles Groovin Mahoovin and Fezzik?

Best Wishes...OF :+clueless
 

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

I have yet to have a losing season at hoops posting on the forums. Maybe this will be the year, but ain't raising the white flag yet. All I can say is, the numbers are obviously tight. I thought I would nail the over by luck on the Portland game but refs decided not to call obvious foul, not much you can do there. Some people would love all of these games falling on or near the numbers. Better luck to you and me. Don't give up and start playing poker. Playoffs may offer better opportunities. And there is always bases.


Best Wishes...OF :cheers :thumbsup

THE CHINAMON WOULD EAT YOU FOR LUNCH HANDICAPPING NBA ON TOTALS AND SIDES, BAD CALLS OR NO BAD CALLS, THE CHINAMON IS THE HUNGARIANS IN THE NBA...
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

In hoops there are always a million games like that. If you are decent, you will win like 11 out of 20 (or 53 or so out of 100) but some losses will be brutal and games you win, luck will be from the heavens. That is inevitable in hoops. I could write a book this year on incredible finishes. Over time they even out and over time you win at 53% or so. Over time look at your record, keep good records and then evaluate. G/L
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Moi, I have backcapped his stuff for years, and...any other names you can drop? What does that have to do with you rainbow? Is that your claim to fame, knowing a good NBA capper? That is not very Godlike. Can he shine your shoes? Is the board collectively impressed you know him? I sure hope you are going somewhere with this, because you look lost right now.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 

Journeyman

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Did you just fall off the turnip truck?

All touts are at least 174-120.

That's why they are touting. They just want to help YOU!

Duh, I think he was kidding Jeff.... :+textinb3 you know , how you always do with us slow people?
 

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Moi, I have backcapped his stuff for years, and...any other names you can drop? What does that have to do with you rainbow? Is that your claim to fame, knowing a good NBA capper? That is not very Godlike. Can he shine your shoes? Is the board collectively impressed you know him? I sure hope you are going somewhere with this, because you look lost right now.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
YOU HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD, I?M LOST, HAVE A GOOD DAY FROG....
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Rainbow not for nothing but i got a friend who gave me Chinamans picks this year and They sucked. He swears they win pretty good but I saw more losses than wins. I did not get the picks enough to offer an opinion because it takes a lot months to determine as we both realize. I am sure he is good. Has he done well as of late?
 

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Rainbow not for nothing but i got a friend who gave me Chinamans picks this year and They sucked. He swears they win pretty good but I saw more losses than wins. I did not get the picks enough to offer an opinion because it takes a lot months to determine as we both realize. I am sure he is good. Has he done well as of late?
He is WINNING for the YEAR, but not as good as the PAST, the bottomline is you are not going to beat him, EXAMPLE: he will bet a total over 197 and the total will close 200 or better and he will bet a side -3 and the line will close 4 or more, its noway to beat him...
 

panther

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

this has been a down year for me

great year college and pro hoops last year

good luck

panther
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

He is WINNING for the YEAR, but not as good as the PAST, the bottomline is you are not going to beat him, EXAMPLE: he will bet a total over 197 and the total will close 200 or better and he will bet a side -3 and the line will close 4 or more, its noway to beat him...

I hear you. If you beat the closing line then you are doing well. After he bets the line seems to move too pretty qwuick. At least the lines I got that he bet were moving like you said and I did not want to bet into bad numbers either. He is one of the best, i am sure. Thanks Rainbow.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Your basketball story hits home with a lot of people. And football is called the toughest game to beat by many....one game a week, lines squeaky tight....

Prefer to stay with true ML sports like baseball and hockey for some of the reasons you mention.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Do you also post under the handles Groovin Mahoovin and Fezzik?

Best Wishes...OF :+clueless

Uhhh, no. I have never heard of groovin and only followed the fezzik/jeff jones drama where OSU wanted to make a side bet with him in every other thread. Im obviously missing whatever dig you are throwing my way, but whatever i guess. I dont have enough interest to research it.

I also post under BromoX across the street. That's all.
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

As to the paid tout:

I got about eight NFL picks 5-6 years ago that came from a tout though I wasn't paying him. They hit 100%. I was impressed.

I didn't really bet much money on those picks because I just never had placed much faith in tout picks. But I got picks from the guy again for the following weekend (also freebies), and told my buddy about the quality of the previous weekend's picks from this guy. We hit it hard together.

Best I can recall, they went something like 2-6. I do know we lost our ass parlaying them.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Uhhh, no. I have never heard of groovin and only followed the fezzik/jeff jones drama where OSU wanted to make a side bet with him in every other thread. Im obviously missing whatever dig you are throwing my way, but whatever i guess. I dont have enough interest to research it.

I also post under BromoX across the street. That's all.

No, not a dig at you at all. There is this certain poster, you might even find him in the poker forum. He posts threads very similar to this, and then he says you can't beat sports, I'm going to poker. The very next day you may have his promotional tool challenging you to a handicapping sports challenge. Some even say he is also Groovin Mahoovin. But it's all forum talk. I would not be interested either if I were you, no one else is, keep up the fitness.

Best Wishes...OF :cheers
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

This post is simply wrong. NBA my best sport each and every year in terms of dollars won. Especially come playoff time.
 

Junior

EOG Veteran
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Did you just fall off the turnip truck?

All touts are at least 174-120.

That's why they are touting. They just want to help YOU!

No didn't fall off any truck. I have paid for these plays since opening game and he is now as I type 174-120 +178 1/2 UNITS. I know of a few others here on his plays as well. This is a tout in the NBA I trust. Yes thats right, I trust but only in NBA. :party
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

So, does this miracle tout have a name? Is his record documented anywhere?

Or does he just reside in some far, far away universe of hope and promise like so many of them?
 

Junior

EOG Veteran
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

So, does this miracle tout have a name? Is his record documented anywhere?

Or does he just reside in some far, far away universe of hope and promise like so many of them?

Not for nothing, but I know his record is not documented or tracked anywhere as he is an email service that I paid $175 for the entire season. He was .500 at the allstar break and is now 54 games over .500. I know of one poster here that gets the same service and is well respected but won't give his name out as those who buy plays get bashed every time. There is no promise as he claimed to be a great NBA capper and is prooving it every day. His CBB plays shit the bed though. This is only posted here by me due to this thread stating that NBA is a no money maker and I know for a fact it is.:party

I probably just mushed him but tonight he has:

PHILLY +2 1/2 (5 UNITS)
INDIANA +1 (5 UNITS)
SAN ANTONIO +3 (5 UNITS)
 
Re: There is no way to be a successful hoops capper.

Royalfanatic continues to boast of winning but never gives out picks, good golly.
 
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