Someone needs to talk me out of this one

WildBill

WildBill

2
My spreadsheet formula is giving me its biggest play in almost 3 years tomorrow with Detroit. Laying the -1.5 +120 the formula concludes would generate a 41% ROI. Laying the -160 would generate 37% ROI.

Please someone tell me what I am missing with this one, I haven't seen something like this in ages coming out of my purely mathematical first pass line creator. It says Detroit should win this game 7.8 runs to 4.1 runs...
 
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BSims

EOG Addicted
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Are you talking about Tuesday's game or Wednesday's? If it's todays (Tuesday), then here are my purely mathematical results from the simulations:

Detroit to win .628, but to win by 1 run .196. Straight wager on Detroit at -160 the expected return is $1.02. Wager on Detroit -1.5 at +120 has expected return of $0.95.

I do have another model that I am analying specifically for the run lines. In this case it has Detroit .620 to win, and .178 to win by 1 run. The expected returns here are $1.01 and $0.97.

Just another view of the game.

But if you're talking about Wednesday's game, that would be different.
 
dirty

dirty

EOG Master
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

WildBill said:
My spreadsheet formula is giving me its biggest play in almost 3 years tomorrow with Detroit. Laying the -1.5 +120 the formula concludes would generate a 41% ROI. Laying the -160 would generate 37% ROI.

Please someone tell me what I am missing with this one, I haven't seen something like this in ages coming out of my purely mathematical first pass line creator. It says Detroit should win this game 7.8 runs to 4.1 runs...
Click to expand...


With Milwaukee's slide I can't argue with ya on this one...Verlander has the chance every time out to throw a shutout.
 
captaincaveman

captaincaveman

EOG Member
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

My projection is much closer also...

Milwaukee : 5
Detroit : 6
--------------------
MIL: Suppan 6.0IP 4ER
DET: Verlander 6.0IP 3ER
 
Cobbler

Cobbler

EOG Addicted
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

WildBill said:
My spreadsheet formula is giving me its biggest play in almost 3 years tomorrow with Detroit. Laying the -1.5 +120 the formula concludes would generate a 41% ROI. Laying the -160 would generate 37% ROI.

Please someone tell me what I am missing with this one, I haven't seen something like this in ages coming out of my purely mathematical first pass line creator. It says Detroit should win this game 7.8 runs to 4.1 runs...
Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made a typo somewhere. Suppan is a slightly below league average pitcher; Milwaukee's pen is about average as well. To project Detroit at 7.8 runs, your power rating for Detroit would have to be at least 7.5 runs per game. That type of offensive production would be historical...a pace of 1200+ runs for the entire season.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Cobbler said:
I'm guessing you made a typo somewhere. Suppan is a slightly below league average pitcher; Milwaukee's pen is about average as well. To project Detroit at 7.8 runs, your power rating for Detroit would have to be at least 7.5 runs per game. That type of offensive production would be historical...a pace of 1200+ runs for the entire season.
Click to expand...

I checked the math, your point is well taken. Detroit scoring 6.0 runs per game, scoring 6.1 at home, then add in their recent form being so strong at over 8 runs a game. Add in Suppan being a below-average pitcher. My formula does credit recent form to a degree.

Top it off by a historical park-factor adjustment. That is probably what needs a little tuning, but I have always used three-year average park factors to shade current year park factors. This year though there are some almost unbelievable park factors, including Comerica not being a strong pitchers park for a change.

I suppose in a vacuum the numbers are bad, but current form such as it is right now I just went ahead and played the Tigers on the run line anyways.
 
A

Archangel8

EOG Veteran
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

WOW.....congrats to WildBill and the rest who had Det today...a no hitter...haha..f**king beautiful...keep posting these landslides WildBill...good luck and congrats everyone
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

No hitter hurt me a bit, bet half a unit on the over. Oh well the formula spotted a lot of value on the sides today, but got wiped out on totals.
 
T

Twoniner

EOG Addicted
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Of course I didn't drop a dime on this game because I got fucking blanked today, but this was pretty damn cool seeing the ticker roll by "Verlander no hitter" after reading the thread. Good call.:cheers
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Cobbler said:
What kind of formula are you using WB?
Click to expand...

Pretty involved math with lots of weighting that I am constantly tinkering with. Its far more evolved than the formulas found in Betting Baseball by Michael Murray, but that would be a good start if you wanted to build one since that is what I did a few years ago. The key is the importing of data by Excel from the web, mostly ESPN stat pages. Just input the daily schedule with pitchers and odds and it automatically gives me expected line and total, with corresponding ROIs. Any ROI of over 6% is added to my list of sides and totals to review for selections. Most of the time the top projected ROI is under 20% so the 41% on Detroit RL was a huge outlier.

Made a lot of improvements over the past offseason by working with a partner who did a lot of fine tuning of the formulas based on past results, stuff I could never do myself. So far we're crushing bases coming in at a very lucky 25% ROI. Since most projected ROIs are around 10-12% this can't hold up forever.
 
kelp0027

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

..

..purty danged impressive wb:

next time ya get a g like this; pre-order champagne for the clubhouse..!!!

lol

gl

:houra
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Sorry this a bit of a past-post, but the model indicated 24% ROI tonight on Tigers, way above normal. I am starting to think there is too much bias on recent results to give me such consistently big numbers on one team.
 
V

Vikingsguy

EOG Member
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

WildBill, I ran a search on the forum for Michael Murray's book, and thought I'd bump this thread. I've started creating a spreadsheet, but would love a reference of a successful one. Would you be willing to share?
 
Starpost9

Starpost9

2
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Man, you sure know how to tweak a guy's brain, Viking. I kept looking at the numbers, and trying to reconcile the thing with what's going on right now. (Eventually I did think to check the posting dates, thank you very much.)
 
V

Vikingsguy

EOG Member
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Starpost, glad I could be of assistance! I have a passion for Excel, but would consider myself an intermediate user. I've mastered importing data into a spreadsheet, and running macros, but I'd like an Expert-level person's version to compare and learn.

bigugly, yep, sure am...
 
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bigugly

EOG Member
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

I would like to get into this kind of thing. I've purchased some stats books and want to get into the excel end of things. To be honest I know very little about handicapping, but I do want to learn more. My first goal is baseball. I would like to have someone to work with or at least talk and exchange ideas with. If you're at all interested and live near me we should consider working together or at least helping each other out a bit. It's just me right now. I haven't had time to learn much yet this year, but luckily it's a long season, and I plan to devote much of my summer to this. I am in Bloomington right now.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Big Ugly, say hello to the 'Met' for me, I loved that place, and every time I see "Bloomington" I think of the old Vikings and Twins. I know it's a shopping mall now, but at least the Twins are going back outside.
 
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bigugly

EOG Member
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

Don't get around there too often. 494 is a mess. MN roads are awful. Unfortunately I am young, and never got to see a game there. Are you an MN sports fan?
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Someone needs to talk me out of this one

No, just a big NFL fan and loved football at the Met so much, I would root a little for the Twins. Not even a Viking fan, Yankees/Raiders for me, but the cold and snow captivated me as a kid and I have always felt they lost something when they moved indoors. Nobody, I mean nobody, wanted to go into that place late in the year. Bud Grant didn't even allow heaters on the sidelines. Great memories of watching games on TV from there.
 
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