Re: I took the Spurs +230 pretty good!
I think the Lake show is overpriced, but i do think they'll win.
The problem i see with hammering the spurs (action bet ok, hammer no) is because the Lake show has done something that very few teams have done this playoff season.
1) they swept an opponent in 4 games. (has anyone else swept anyone?)
2) they've not only won multiple road games, but they've beaten good teams in Denver and Utah.
3) they haven't been embarrassed at all this playoff season...they either won, or were 'in' every game.
San Antonio was embarrassed 4 seperate times in games they didn't even try....which shows me the Lakers 'want it more'. San Anto went thru the motions in one game vs Phx and 3 games vs N.O where as the Lakers put up HUGE fights in every game and showed big time 'desire'. Very few, if any, of these other teams in the playoffs showed that kind of hunger in every game. Lakers didn't give away one possession in any game, and SA has given away many.
The Lakers aren't a sure thing by any stretch, but i don't think they are a vulnerable favorite. If SA wins this series, they're going to have to be great to do it. Lakers aren't giving them one inch in any game....SA is going to have to play extremely hard in all 7 games to win this series.....and, from the looks of their previous serieses, they don't really want to play all that hard all the time, they want to pick and choose when they play hard.
I wouldn't want to back a team like that....at almost any price.
SA is probably going to have to win game 7 in LA to win this series as i dont believe they are good enough to win this series in less than 7 games. Can SA win game 7 vs Kobe in LA? I'd be worried if i was a Spurs bettor counting on an outright win in that game.
In fact, if this series goes to a game 7, the Lakers might be 5 or 6 pt faves in that 7th game, which means SA will be at least +150 on the ML.
I think i'd rather wait for game 7 and grab the 150 and get to see the previous 6 games, instead of backing at team who might not even make it to game 7.
If you believe SA can win this series in LESS than 7 games, you might be able to make more money betting individual games on the ML than you can with a series bet.