Yes or No Question for Pioneer

[cassiusclay]

You have to answer yes or no but can explain your reasoning for the answer. Here is the question:

In your opinion, does losing the Belmont cost BB's owners any real money (besides the purse)?

My other questions:

Do stud fees dramatically go down?

Why was BB scheduled to race again in the fall?

The Belmont track did seem "deep", how much did that come into play?

Clay

 

[cassiusclay]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Genetics, Stud Fees and Luck


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The major news outlets seem to be filling space while waiting for tonight's Preakness draw (and that's no bad thing, given that it highlights the sport beyond the Triple Crown to some extent). The New York Times profiles Nicanor (pictured), the full brother to Barbaro, who has recently arrived (video here) at Fair Hill to begin working toward a probable fall debut. <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana"></O><O></O>
Bill Finley points out that sibling relationships don't often count for much in horse racing, and uses the example of Smarty Jones' full sister who has yet to win a maiden race. Indeed, his half bother Speedy Jones is also some way from his elder sibling's fame - he has so far earned his connections $3320 in 3 starts, so he still has some way to go to make up for his $120,000 purchase price.http://www.pedigreequery.com/speedy+jones<O></O>
There is no guarantee that Barbaro's brothers will shine on the track either; his 4-year-old half-brother, Man in Havana, is unraced (and is now a gelding) and his elder half-brother, Holy Ground, won a few stakes races, but nothing outstanding (although you can still breed to him for $3,500, if you are so inclined - I actually like his pedigree, but he's not going to win any beauty contests).<O></O>
By the same token, some mares just keep producing top offspring. Hasili is still the classic modern example, with Cacique, Heat Haze, Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Dansili and her current US-based runner, <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1LACE st="on">Champs Elysees</ST1LACE>. Her 3-year-old, Raise the Flag (by the recently-pensioned Sadler's Wells), has one start so far, and she has a yearling Storm Cat filly (apparently, one of the last of his as well). Andrew Caulfield was impressed upon meeting the mare:<O></O>

While Hasili still has a bit of work to do to match Fall Aspen (eight group/graded winners, including four Grade I winners) and Courtly Dee (seven graded winners, headed by three Grade I scorers), this extraordinary mare has a near-faultless record. Thanks to <ST1LACE st="on">Champs Elysees</ST1LACE>'s stylish victory in the GII San Marcos S., her first six foals have all scored at Grade I or Grade II levels, with four of them achieving Grade I-winner status. It took the great Dahlia 11 foals to come up with four Grade I winners and a pair of Grade II scorers.​

<O></O>
I suspect <ST1LACE style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" st="on">Champs Elysees</ST1LACE>, just nosed out last weekend in the G2 Jim Murray Memorial Handicap, will nab a G1 win as well at some point.<O></O>
Fall <ST1:CITY style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" st="on"><ST1LACE st="on">Aspen</ST1LACE></ST1:CITY>'s details note that only four North American-based mares have been lucky enough to produce as many as four G1 winners (Dahlia, Toussaud, Hasili and Fall Aspen herself); one wonders if it would still be possible to get away with naming a horse Hamas, like Fall Aspen's 1989 colt who has been a useful sire, these days.<O></O>
<O style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana"></O>I expect this topic to come up not infrequently as we head toward the <ST1LACE style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" st="on"><ST1:CITY st="on">Belmont</ST1:CITY></ST1LACE> and <ST1:STREET style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" st="on"><ST1:ADDRESS st="on">Casino Drive</ST1:ADDRESS></ST1:STREET>'s chance to make it a hat-trick for his dam, Better Than Honour - not to mention the anticipation around Nicanor's first start, which will likely be one of the most-watched maiden races in recent memory.<O></O>
Finally, let's focus for a moment on the major stallion retirements mentioned above. Sadler's Wells made an impact on the turf before his great influence at stud - he won or placed in six Group 1 events in England, Ireland and France and was the 1984 Champion Miler in France before heading off to stud duty (and, now, a well-deserved retirement). His statistics (so far) show<O></O> 272 stakes winners, including 71 G1 winners.<O></O> His top offspring include Montjeu, Galileo, Alexandrova, High Chaparral and Refuse to Bend, among many others. It would seem that some want to overlook his American origins to some extent:

<O></O>
Such is his standing in the Northern Hemisphere, respected TDN columnist Bill Oppenheim was moved to write yesterday that Sadler's Wells "singlehandedly restored the reputation of Europe as a place where you could stand world-class stallions after European stallion ranks had been decimated by the Americans in the 1970s and 1980s. "
​

<O></O>
By contrast, Storm Cat was less successful on the track - he only won one notable race (although his runner-up performance in the second Breeders' Cup Juvenile was memorable) before an injury forced his retirement. Among his best foals are <ST1LACE style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" st="on">Giant's Causeway</ST1LACE>, Storm Flag Flying and the notorious Tabasco Cat. Here are his statistics at this point - Storm Cat has sired 160 stakes winners, with 98 graded stakes winners (and one could argue that both stallions have been even more useful as broodmare sires).<O></O>
The great success at stud of both stallions, coming at a time when numbers of mares bred to a given stallion increased exponentially (along with auction prices and stud fees), has had a definite impact on the breed; whether it's been a positive, negative or mixed one is debatable, but there can be no argument that they've certainly made their respective marks. Here's hoping they can both enjoy healthy retirements. <O></O>

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Posted by Superfecta at 11:35 AM
Labels: Barbaro, Casino Drive, Coolmore, Genetics, Hasili, Nicanor, Smarty Jones

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2 comments:

<DL id=comments-block><DT class=comment-author id=comment-8817898601667255717>Valerie said... <DD class=comment-body>I was trying to calculate just how much moola Storm Cat raked in per year for Overbrook Farm. Assuming the $500,000 fee was based on live foal, in 2002 they made $33.5 million (67 named foals); in 2003, $44 million (88 foals); in 2004, $43.5 million (87 foals); in 2005, $38.5 million (77 foals)....HOLY COW! That's $159.5 million in just four years!!!
<DD class=comment-footer>12:05 AM <DT class=comment-author id=comment-220060420358965606>Anonymous said... <DD class=comment-body>Speedy Jones is also some way from his elder sibling's fame - he has so far earned his connections $3320 in 3 starts, so he still has some way to go to make up for his $120,000 purchase price.

Old data from Pedigree Query
he raced once more and earned $4,160 still a maiden, nothing on the board.
<DD class=comment-footer>3:48 PM </DD></DL>Post a Comment

 

[cassiusclay]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

Paying high stud fees doesn’t guarantee good racehorse genes

by Elaine on December 26th, 2007

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Anyone who knows me personally will know I’m a life-long horse rider … much to the annoyance of my husband who, before I had to put down my ancient best equine friend earlier this year, regarded my ‘other man’ as a very expensive eating machine. “Might as well burn dollar bills” was his usual grumble.
This latest study by The Royal Society will come as no surprise to the horse community … paying mega bucks doesn’t guarantee you top notch equine quality … probably the opposite as expensive horses tend to be pretty inbred succumbing to every problem imaginable … much to the happiness of Vets!
“Paying high stud fees for a racehorse does not always buy the best genes says research published in the Royal Society journal Biology Letters.
Researchers from the University of Edinburgh used pedigree data from over 4,000 racehorses to see whether stud fees - the price paid for a stallion to father a racehorse -are a useful measure of a stallion’s genetic quality and its offspring’s prize-winning potential. They found that while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predicator of a foal’s prize winning potential.
Dr Alistair Wilson, University of Edinburgh said: “Although there are certainly good genes to be bought, it is not necessarily true that you get what you pay for.”
Thoroughbred horse racing is a multi-million pound international industry and there is an increasing importance being placed on using genetic tools to maximize breeding programs. The ability to determine the genetic potential of a racehorse’s parent may prove crucial to breed high-quality racehorses. However, stud fees are not just based on genes they also take into account a horses’ racing career and performances. Breeders may therefore assume that if they pay higher stud fees then they are buying better genes, but this is only the case if the stallion’s reputation is a true reflection of his genetic quality.”
Elaine Warburton

 

[cassiusclay]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

However, stud fees are not just based on genes they also take into account a horses’ racing career and performances. Breeders may therefore assume that if they pay higher stud fees then they are buying better genes, but this is only the case if the stallion’s reputation is a true reflection of his genetic quality

 

[cassiusclay]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

Source says Big Brown stud deal worth $60 million


Win or lose June 7 in the Belmont Stakes, what are the chances that undefeated Triple Crown contender Big Brown will run again?

"Very good," his co-owner, Holbrook resident Michael Iavarone, said yesterday. "As long as he comes out of the race in the right way and shows us that he wants to go on, I think it would make sense for us to go on with him."

Iavarone has said Big Brown will not race as a 4-year-old next year, when he will begin his stud career.

On Saturday, Iavarone sold Big Brown's breeding rights for what one source told Newsday yesterday was more than a record $60 million. The deal between Iavarone's International Equine Acquisitions Holdings Inc. and Three Chimneys Farm in Midway, Ky., surpasses the previous record of $60 million paid for Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 by Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky.



Three other world-class breeders, thought to be Coolmore, Darley and Lane's End, also sought Big Brown. His 5-for-5 record, by a combined margin of 39 lengths, and excellence on grass and dirt made him an irresistible stallion prospect. So did his pedigree, which contains the influence of the outstanding sire Northern Dancer on both sides.

The deal was almost sealed Thursday and Friday but fell through.

"I can't get into the details of what the legal hang-ups were, but there were things I wanted to insist upon," Iavarone said.

At noon Saturday, Iavarone said he signed the contract in his hotel's lobby, and the concierge faxed it to Three Chimneys.

Robert Clay, president of Three Chimneys, returned only 12 hours earlier from a vacation in Peru, and his flight from Kentucky to Baltimore was delayed. Clay reached Pimlico in time for the Preakness, but too late to arrange a pre-race announcement with International Equine Acquisitions. NBC racing analyst Gary Stevens also works as a bloodstock and racing adviser for Iavarone, and he asked Iavarone whether NBC's Bob Neumeier could reveal the deal, which he did about 90 minutes before the Preakness.

Iavarone said he "wanted the opportunity to take part in Big Brown's career after racing." He plans to breed the son of Boundary to his stakes-winners Wonder Lady Anne L, Ariege, Shaggy Mane, Sharp Susan and Sugar Punch.

"It was a very good deal for us and for Three Chimneys," said Iavarone, whose stable leads North American owners with more than $5.3 million in earnings in 2008. "I think everyone got what they wanted."

More articles

 

[cassiusclay]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

Dutrow is the horse's ass in world of horse racing<TABLE class=storyHeader style="BACKGROUND: url(http://images.sportsline.com/images/authors-318x86/8450.jpg) no-repeat left top; HEIGHT: 91px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=storyInfo style="PADDING-LEFT: 95px" vAlign=top>June 11, 2008
By Gregg Doyel
CBSSports.com National Columnist
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<!-- T10861931 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 06/11/2008 11:33:13 --><!-- sversion: 4 $Updated: bjstubits$ -->Rick Dutrow has more in common with Big Brown than he ever imagined.
Big Brown was once a front-runner. So was Dutrow, who trained him to victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. After the Belmont, Big Brown will go down in history as a giant loser. So will Dutrow.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=210 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=210> </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=210>Without directly saying so, Rick Dutrow Jr. has pointed the finger at his jockey. (AP) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Big Brown is a horse.
Dutrow is a horse's ass.
That about covers it, but I've not even begun to express my anger with Dutrow now that he has blamed his jockey for Big Brown's disappointing performance Saturday at the Belmont, where a win would have given him the first Triple Crown in 30 years but instead the horse finished dead last.
At least the horse didn't finish dead, which is more than I can say for Eight Belles, the filly who died trying to catch 'roided up Big Brown at the Kentucky Derby. And there was a fear -- at least, I had the fear -- that Big Brown could be in mortal danger at the Belmont.
Big Brown was suffering from a cracked hoof, and though Dutrow was quick to assert the condition wouldn't affect the horse's performance, much less put him in mortal risk, who can say what puts a racehorse in mortal risk? Look at Eight Belles. One minute she was gallantly trying to run down the steroid monster in front of her, and in the next moment she was suffering a catastrophic breakdown in both front legs, causing her death right there on the track.
Dutrow was sure the cracked hoof wouldn't jeopardize Big Brown's health at the Belmont, and he was right. Big Brown is alive and well.
But Dutrow is flailing about for a reason for his horse's disastrous showing in the race, and instead of focusing on the hoof or the lack of steroids in the horse's system or the deep grooves of the track or the possibility that, you know, Big Brown simply wasn't that good in the first place, Dutrow is blaming his own jockey.
Dutrow would say otherwise. He'd say that he hasn't come right out and blamed jockey Kent Desormeaux, but Dutrow isn't smart enough to know the distinction. That's one of the conclusions I've reached about Rick Dutrow: He's just not very smart. He can't be. Nobody smart conducts himself as foolishly as Dutrow did in the weeks leading up to the Belmont, and then conducts himself as cowardly as Dutrow did after the race.
Dutrow had the perfect story on his hands, but instead of riding the wave of great publicity for his horse and himself, he turned the great story against Big Brown. By the time Big Brown went off Saturday as a 1-4 favorite, lots of people were rooting against history. And people don't typically root against history. We all want to see something special happen, because it makes us feel good about ourselves and our luck for being alive at the right time to see it. That's why Tiger Woods is so popular; we don't want parity. We want greatness.
And Big Brown was potential greatness. But lots of people didn't want him to cash in on greatness because we were sick of the loudmouthed trainer who was so dumb that he talked trash about opposing horses for God's sake, as if he could get inside the head of a dumb -- but beautiful -- animal.
Dutrow said, "I am trying to be humble." He said, "These horses cannot run with Big Brown." He said the Triple Crown was "a foregone conclusion."
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[pioneer]

Re: Yes or No Question for Pioneer

YES

As I posted in the other BB thread today...

Paul Moran at the races: Belmont: Denial of the slicksters


"The enrichment will continue, though a knowledgeable source in Lexington claims that Three Chimneys Farm, where Big Brown will stand at stud, purchased a 10 percent interest for $5 million, which may have technically established his total worth at $50 million but like all things IEAH, is not what it seems."