Re: SSI's Card for Tuesday June 10
lets look at a few games, thru the eyes of a Handicapper and not a systems player.
Baltimore at Boston (-2.01) (9)
Your first thought, when looking at this game, more so than anything else is. I cant play Boston on the moneyline, no way playing $2 favorites will work in the long run. The 2nd thing that should strike you is bostons home record (26-6), this should make you very leary of taking the Orioles on the road, who are a lackluster (14-20). So by now, i personally have this game marked as a no play but lets look further. If you look at the pitching matchup, for the season its not that far off but going inside the last 3 starts, you can see Carbrera is beginning to struggle (5.79 over last 3). The you can begin to look at the trends. Baltimore (1-8) in Cabreras last 9 starts against the sox. Boston (40-11) in their last 51 home games. If your a selective capper, this alone should keep you from going against the sox at home. Here is another glaring stat, Orioles are (15-36) (29%), in their last 51 as a road dog from (+1.50/+2.00). Orioles are also (15-36) in their last 51 meetings with the sox.
In saying most of this, the game is an easy pass for me. The Orioles are better this year, playing (.500) ball and winning 5 of last 7 but i cant go against Beckett and the sox at fenway and i cant lay $2 on the sox, so i must pass on the side.
The total should give you a slight lean to the Over 9 but im not a lean handicapper or Value player. that is good for some but id rather win. the sox lineup is not at full strength, with (3-4) starters out for tonight and with beckett heating up, i cant go with the over, as 4 of the past 5 sox games have gone Under the total...
with all that rambling done, ill pass on both the side and total... good luck, if you play this one..