Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007
AL Closers of the Future
Up the next two weeks is a look at each team's closing situation for 2008 and beyond. Basically, I'll throw out a bunch of names and try to guess which ones will stick. There's no more volatile role in the majors, so don't expect a high rate of success here. Still, there are too many potential fantasy bargains out there not to try.
Found after each team's writeup is my listing of which pitchers have the best chance of leading the team in saves in 2008, 2009 and 2010, ranked in order.
I'm covering the AL teams this week, with the NL following next Monday. However, there are some weekly notes concerning both leagues at the end of the column.
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Baltimore - There was talk over the winter that the Orioles might trade
Chris Ray for a rotation upgrade after spending so much to improve their pen. The possibility never seemed to be seriously considered by the club, but there are a bunch of fans that wish it happened after the 25-year-old opened 2007 by blowing three of his first 11 save chances, each in ugly fashion. The thing is that those were the only three times through 19 appearances that Ray gave up a run. He projects as a fine closer going forward. Maybe he'll never reach an elite level, but he's good enough to get the job done for several years.
If the club did choose to part with Ray in order to fill a bigger need elsewhere,
Danys Baez would be the likely stopgap. However, it'd take a much stronger showing from Baez than what he's done so far before the Orioles would entertain the possibility of moving their closer.
James Hoey would then likely be called on to occupy a setup role. Hoey, a 24-year-old who was rushed from Double-A to the majors, has the same fastball-slider repertoire as Ray, but he probably won't be quite as effective against lefties. He might be better off as a setup man for the long-term. The other real sleeper here is
Radhames Liz, a starter with a 37/24 K/BB ratio in 34 1/3 innings in Double-A. Liz throws in the mid-90s and has a power curveball, giving him plenty of upside as a starter. However, if improved command doesn't come soon, his future will be in the pen.
2008: Ray, Hoey, Baez,
Jeremy Guthrie
2009: Ray, Liz, Hoey, Guthrie
2010: Liz, Ray, Hoey,
Luis Lebron
Boston - The move back to the rotation didn't take, so
Jonathan Papelbon is probably in the bullpen for good. It just remains to be seen whether his shoulder will hold up. That his mechanics have been off at times this year could be an indication that he's compensating for some soreness. Still, he's showed no sign of any problems in his last few appearances.
A Papelbon breakdown this year would thrust
Hideki Okajima into the closer's role. Okajima, who wasn't one of the four candidates to close when it was thought Papelbon would be in the rotation, has been lights out so far, and though it seems likely that the league will catch up to him somewhat, he could be a reliable setup man for a few years.
There are no great bets for saves in the minors. The future was supposed to be in the hands of
Craig Hansen or maybe
Manny Delcarmen. However, both have taken steps backwards this year.
Bryce Cox in Double-A is another disappointment. All three have ERAs around 5.00 and only Delcarmen has a quality K/BB ratio.
Edgar Martinez may have a future as a setup man, but probably isn't closer material.
Michael Bowden was someone I thought might fare better as a reliever, but he's emerged as one of the AL's top starting pitching prospects this year. Still in A ball are 2006 draft picks
Daniel Bard and
Justin Masterson. The Red Sox are hoping Bard makes it as a starter, but he's been a bust to date this year. Masterson is also working as a starter at the moment. Hansen is probably the likeliest candidate for saves in the group, but I don't think it will happen in Boston.
2008: Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen,
Devern Hansack
2009: Papelbon, Hansen, Delcarmen, Cox
2010: Papelbon, Bard, Hansen, Delcarmen
Chicago - The White Sox are another club with no desire to change closers anytime soon.
Bobby Jenks is under control through 2011 and could be in line for a long-term deal with another successful season. Still, his history of elbow troubles, not to mention some past problems with alcohol and a history of conditioning issues, means he's hardly a safe bet. As dominant as he is when he's on, he's always going to be someone who should be backed up with his setup man in fantasy leagues.
Fortunately, the White Sox have plenty in reserve if Jenks goes down. Former Royals closer
Mike MacDougal is the backup for now, and
Matt Thornton has a closer-type fastball from the left side. Both setup men received three-year deals prior to the start of the season.
David Aardsma and
Nick Masset are potential long-term closers. Aardsma, a former first-round pick of the Giants, has fanned 28 batters in 23 1/3 innings this season. Masset, part of the
Brandon McCarthy-
John Danks deal, throws in the mid-90s and has a plus curveball.
Adam Russell is another hard-thrower that the White Sox are trying to develop as a starter.
Matt Long was a college reliever drafted in the second round last year. 26-year-old
Dewon Day has 39 strikeouts in 21 innings in Double-A and looks like a potential setup man.
2008: Jenks, MacDougal, Masset, Aardsma
2009: Jenks, Masset, MacDougal, Aardsma
2010: Masset, Jenks, Russell, Aardsma
Cleveland -
Keith Foulke was supposed to be the Indians' closer this season, but he didn't even make it to spring training, leaving
Joe Borowski to handle those duties. Borowski has converted 13 of his 15 save chances, but he has an 8.44 ERA in the process, suggesting that he's just holding the seat warm for someone else.
Rafael Betancourt is the steadiest reliever in the Cleveland pen and should be next in line for closing duties. For that reason, he's worth owning in every format right now. Still, he's probably going to be a setup man in 2008 and beyond, and there's a good chance the Indians will be in the market for a closer again next winter.
In
Fernando Cabrera and
Fausto Carmona, the Indians have a couple of guys who have looked like potential long-term closers for a couple of years now. Cabrera, a big disappointment last year, got off to a terrific start last month, only to fade again lately. Carmona is currently succeeding in the rotation with his sinker, but the bullpen remains an option if he doesn't get enough strikeouts. My guess is that Carmona lasts as a starter and Cabrera ends up as the closer at some point.
Less likely candidates to close include
Edward Mujica and
Tom Mastny. Neither can match stuff with Cabrera and Carmona, but both throw strikes and don't wilt under pressure. Mujica, especially, is a sleeper going forward. There's also left-hander
Tony Sipp, who has plenty of stuff but may lack the command to hold it together in such a crucial role.
2008: (Free Agent), Betancourt, Cabrera, Carmona, Mujica
2009: Cabrera, Carmona, Betancourt, Mujica
2010: Cabrera, Carmona, Sipp, Mujica
Detroit - The Tigers will remain content with free-agent-to-be
Todd Jones for the duration of 2007, but there's little doubt that
Joel Zumaya is the future in the closer's role for the club. He should get the job right from the start of next year, even though he'll end up missing half of this season with a ruptured finger tendon. Perhaps there's a chance that the Tigers will attempt to re-sign Jones if Zumaya has further control troubles upon returning in August, but is seems unlikely.
Backing up Jones now and probably serving as Zumaya's caddy next year is
Fernando Rodney. At age 30, Rodney is older than most believe. However, he remains under control through 2009.
The Tigers dealt a couple of potential closers in
Humberto Sanchez and
Kevin Whelan to the Yankees for
Gary Sheffield, leaving them short on relief prospects.
Eulogio De La Cruz is likely the best bet of the team's currently minor leaguers to develop into a setup man for Zumaya. However, the Tigers aren't close to giving up on him as a starter at the moment.
2008: Zumaya, Jones, Rodney,
Roman Colon
2009: Zumaya, Rodney, De La Cruz,
Sendy Vasquez
2010: Zumaya, De La Cruz, Rodney, Vasquez
Kansas City - A $5 million investment in
Octavio Dotel was supposed to provide the Royals with their first 30-save guy since 1998. That's not going to happen, as Dotel is just now set to return from a strained oblique that has sidelined him since Opening Day, and because Dotel took a one-year deal without an option, it seems unlikely that he'll still be around in Kansas City in 2008. Fortunately, the team may have found a new closer of the future in Rule 5 pick
Joakim Soria, who has nine saves while helping to fill in for Dotel.
Soria's 92-94 mph fastball, quality slider and average changeup have made him effective in the majors despite little minor league experience. He's likely to have some bumps in the road this year, but he has a promising future and he could even be tried as a starter at some point. Still, it's more likely that the Royals will leave him in the pen. With GM Dayton Moore getting rid of some of the team's other high-upside arms, Soria is clearly the best bet going forward.
If not Soria,
Zack Greinke could be a possibility in the closer's role. It's far too early to be looking at him strictly as a reliever, but he's throwing 95-97 mph out of the pen and he could turn out to be quite the force if left there. Still, it'd be far better for the Royals if he fulfilled his No. 2-starter potential. Maybe he'll eventually switch places with left-hander
Jorge De La Rosa.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4768"]Ryan Braun[/URL] has the power arsenal of a closer, but he's turning 27 this summer and he still struggles to throw strikes. 2004 second-round pick
Billy Buckner recently made the move to the pen in Triple-A. He gets quite a few grounders and has a curve for a strikeout pitch, but he's probably more of a setup man than a closer.
2008: (Free Agent), Soria, Greinke, Braun, De La Rosa
2009: Soria, Greinke, De La Rosa, Buckner
2010: Soria, Greinke, Buckner, Julio Pimentel
Los Angeles - The Angels have yet to manage to lock up
Francisco Rodriguez beyond 2008, leading to much speculation that he'll be the long-term replacement for
Mariano Rivera in New York. Still, there's plenty of time for the club to get a deal done, and if the Angels can afford to throw $10 million per year at
Gary Matthews Jr. and $6 million at
Shea Hillenbrand, there's no reason for them not to do what it takes. I'd be surprised if K-Rod doesn't get a four- or five-year extension prior to the beginning of next season.
If I'm wrong and nothing materializes, the Angels could turn to
Scot Shields for a year or two. Shields, who was also going to be eligible for free agency after 2008, agreed to a three-year extension in March that made him one of the game's highest-paid setup man. He's certainly earned the nice payday, but considering that he's turning 32 in July and he's had one of the game's heaviest workloads the last few years, he could fall apart at any time. It's possible that he'll remain a freak and keep dominating through the end of his contract, but if K-Rod does get away, the Angels will invest in another
Justin Speier-type setup man as insurance. Another slight possibility is that
Kelvim Escobar will prove too fragile to remain in the rotation, forcing a move back to the pen.
2008: Rodriguez, Shields, Speier, Escobar
2009: Rodriguez, Shields, Escobar,
Jose Arredondo
2010: Rodriguez, Arredondo, Shields,
Stephen Marek
Minnesota - Overshadowed by Mariano and K-Rod,
Joe Nathan is probably as underrated as a top closer can be. Still, I argued in spring training that it made little sense for the Twins to commit what it'd take to sign him beyond 2008, not when they have such a limited budget and always seem capable of coming up with plus relievers anyway. However, two things have happened since then. First, it became more apparent than ever that there was very little chance of keeping
Johan Santana beyond 2008. Second,
Jesse Crain wrecked his shoulder, creating some doubt about whether he'll reemerge as a quality setup man and potential closer in 2008. Nathan is turning 33 in the offseason, so there is risk in signing him. However, he hasn't had any arm troubles since 2002 and he looks like a pretty good bet to remain a quality closer for the next four or five years.
Should the Twins fail in their efforts to re-sign Nathan, they'd have to consider trading him over the winter. Unfortunately,
Juan Rincon seems to be past his peak; he's maintaining another fine ERA this season, but his strikeout rate keeps dropping and his WHIP has skyrocketed, making him look like a poor bet going forward. Crain will be ready to pitch next spring, but he's probably not going to be all the way back until 2009, if then. It might be that
Pat Neshek is the future in Minnesota. He's been even tougher to hit this season that he was last year, as lefties just haven't adapted to him as it looked like they would. He's definite closer material now.
As always, the Twins have some notable pitchers in the minors.
Eduardo Morlan, who is currently sporting a 30/3 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings at Single-A Fort Myers, is the best bet to develop into a closer. He throws in the mid-90s and has a strikeout slider.
Jeff Manship and
Oswaldo Sosa are starters currently and will continue to be developed as such, but both have terrific potential as relievers if they don't make it, Manship especially. There's also
Anthony Swarzak, whose star had dimmed slightly even before last month's drug suspension. If he gets passed by guys like Manship and Sosa this year, it's more likely that he'll end up in the pen.
2008: Nathan, Neshek, Rincon, Crain
2009: Neshek, Nathan, Crain, Morlan
2010: Morlan, Neshek, Nathan, Crain
New York -
Mariano Rivera or a free agent? It still seems highly unlikely that Rivera won't be back, especially since the top candidates to replace him (K-Rod and Nathan) aren't going to be free agents until after 2008. But maybe if things go badly enough for the Bombers this year, the team will try to make a big change. I think the only way it would happen is if
Eric Gagne starts throwing 95 mph again and saves 30 games over the rest of the season, turning him back into an elite closer option on the free agent market.
Francisco Cordero has never gotten the credit he's been due over the years, but the team that gives him the $40 million over four years he's likely to command this winter will be making a mistake. The other big name likely to be out there is
Jason Isringhausen, assuming that the Cardinals save $7.55 million by declining his option. However, he doesn't seem like a viable replacement for Rivera either.
No, Rivera will stay and the Yankees will spend big to bring in a setup man, perhaps
Scott Linebrink. The team will then target one of the big names after 2008, maybe with the idea that they could set up Rivera for a year before taking over as closer.
Kyle Farnsworth figures to be gone, leaving
Scott Proctor as the primary backup for Rivera among those currently on the roster. For youngsters, there's two of the prospects acquired from the Tigers for
Gary Sheffield,
Humberto Sanchez and
Kevin Whelan. Sanchez's future almost certainly seems to be in the pen after he underwent Tommy John surgery last month. He has closer-type ability if he can get healthy. Whelan also has very good stuff, but command issues make him look more like a seventh-inning guy at the moment.
2008: Rivera, (Free Agent), Proctor,
Brian Bruney
2009: Rivera, (Free Agent), Proctor, Whelan
2010: (Free Agent), Whelan, Sanchez,
Mark Melancon
Oakland - The A's have
Huston Street under control through 2010 and hope to have him closing games well beyond that. Since his current ulnar nerve issue ? even if it requires surgery ? isn't at all likely to remain a problem into 2008 and beyond, he remains a fine bet for the future.
Beyond Street, the A's just aren't as deep as usual.
Justin Duchscherer is only 29, but he has had so many physical problems that it doesn't look like he'll last as a top setup man. He'd be a perfect candidate for the old
Jeff Nelson treatment, but the A's can't afford to put him in mothballs for three or four months and hope that he'll 100 percent the rest of the way.
Kiko Calero is another strong breakdown candidate, basically because of his Nelson-like tendency to throw sliders 75 percent of the time.
Chad Gaudin would be awfully interesting if put back in the pen, but he's looking a rotation mainstay right now. Moving
Rich Harden to the pen doesn't seem like a solution to me ? I think he'll be traded if the A's become convinced he can't stay healthy ? but it can't be ruled out.
There are just no other clear candidates out there. The A's recently traded their best true relief prospect,
Marcus McBeth, to the Reds for
Chris Denorfia, not that he's closer material anyway. 2006 second-round pick
Trevor Cahill would be mighty interesting as a reliever, but he's also one of the team's few starting pitching prospects with much upside.
Santiago Casilla, the former Jairo Garcia, still isn't throwing strikes and looks like a bust. My guess is that Billy Beane will be on the lookout for high-upside relievers when he eventually trades Harden or
Joe Blanton.
2008: Street, Duchscherer, Harden, Gaudin
2009: Street, Harden, Gaudin, Duchscherer
2010: Street, Harden,
Jason Ray, Gaudin
Seattle - All things being equal, the Mariners kept the right one. Still, it was absurd that the team refused to discuss
J.J. Putz in the
Manny Ramirez negotiations in December, then went and traded
Rafael Soriano for
Horacio Ramirez a few days later. It was durability that made Putz the better choice. Soriano is just as dominant when he's on, but he's unlikely to hold up as well as Putz going forward. Also, Putz was under control for one additional year through 2009. The Mariners added an extra year in the form of an option when they gave him a three-year deal in January.
So, with Putz going nowhere, the Mariners don't want to have to look for a new closer anytime soon. They're still saying the right things about eventually putting 2006 first-round pick
Brandon Morrow back into the rotation, something that should happen next year if Putz remains healthy. However, even if he is starting games, Morrow might remain the primary alternative in the closer's role. There's no one else on the roster with any realistic chance of closing in the future.
Mark Lowe, currently on the DL with career-threatening elbow problems, is the pitcher the Mariners are hoping becomes the long-term setup man in front of Putz. They'll have a better idea in August or September whether that's a possibility.
2008: Putz, Morrow, Lowe,
Jason Davis
2009: Putz, Morrow, Lowe,
Jon Huber
2010: Putz, Morrow, Lowe,
Chris Tillman
Tampa Bay -
Al Reyes' elbow was reported to be in particularly bad shape when he underwent Tommy John surgery in Oct. 2004, but you'd never know that from the way he's pitched this year. With no one else in the bullpen proving to be reliable, the Rays would be even more lost absent his 12 saves in 12 chances. Still, the 37-year-old is unlikely to be a long-term option in the closer's role. In truth, the Rays would be smart to trade him in July, as he'd likely bring in a couple of quality young arms if he continues at his current pace. He's a free agent at season's end, and since he missed all of 2006, he probably wouldn't even bring in a couple of compensation picks if he leaves then.
With
Seth McClung disappointing the Rays once again, there are no clear long-term replacements for Reyes in the system. The team would still love to see McClung step up, but it's looking less and less likely that it's ever going to click for him. A change of scenery might help.
Juan Salas was dominant in the minors, but it looks like that was in part because he was cheating. He's serving a 50-game PED suspension handed down earlier this month.
Edwin Jackson still isn't getting it done as a starter and might end up back in the pen, where he has the stuff to dominate. However, like McClung, he's had plenty of time to put it together and it hasn't happened. Of the guys with major league experience,
Chad Orvella might be the best bet. However, he hasn't thrown strikes in the majors like he did in the minors. It's more likely that he'll settle in as a setup man.
The Rays' long-term closer may come from their group of talented minor league starters. They've already tried having
Brian Stokes make the switch with largely negative results.
Jeff Niemann has the most upside of the prospects and a history of arm problems, which often translates into a move to the pen. However, a switch is unlikely to come anytime soon.
Matt Walker and his fastball-curveball combo seem like a great fit in the pen, but he's walked 27 in 33 2/3 innings in the FSL this year, making it unlikely that he'll be an option anytime soon. Other candidates to eventually make the switch include
Wade Davis,
Jeremy Hellickson and
Mitch Talbot. Since none of the prospects seem like a great bet to make an impact in 2008, the Rays may try to find help in free agency again over the winter.
2008: (Free Agent), McClung, Orvella, Stokes, Jackson
2009: McClung, Jackson, Orvella, Niemann
2010: Niemann, McClung, Walker, Orvella
Texas - The Rangers would have been content to use
Akinori Otsuka in the closer's role this season, but when the opportunity came to upgrade to
Eric Gagne, they took it. It hasn't really paid off so far. Gagne has pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings, proving that he can still be very effective despite diminished velocity. However, he's already been on the DL twice and it seems likely that the physical problems are here to stay. Fortunately, with a 1.15 ERA, Ostuka hasn't experienced any drop off in his second year in the AL. Since he didn't get the same kind of clause some other Japanese imports did, he won't be a free agent until after his sixth year in the majors, keeping him under the Rangers' control through 2009. He might be the best bet to act as the team's closer next year. I'm guessing Gagne is one and done in Texas.
The Rangers lack quality rotation options, as usual, but they have no shortage of intriguing options for the bullpen. In fact,
Wes Littleton, who had a 1.73 ERA in 33 appearances in the majors last year, has spent most of this season in Triple-A.
Frank Francisco is finally close to 100 percent after a longer-than-expected recovery from Tommy John surgery and might be the long-term closer. Another possibility is
Josh Rupe, who hasn't succeeded as hoped as a starter but still has a nice sinker-slider combination.
Edinson Volquez has been an even bigger disappointment and may never have the command to make it as a starting pitcher. Still, he is interesting. Also, there's
Armando Galarraga, a product of the
Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals. He's not going to make it as a starter, but there's a slight chance he'll develop into a quality late-inning guy.
2008: Otsuka, Francisco, Rupe, Littleton
2009: Francisco, Otsuka, Rupe, Volquez
2010: Francisco, Rupe, Volquez, Galarraga
Toronto - The Jays hope their five-year, $47 million investment doesn't go for naught and
B.J. Ryan returns from Tommy John surgery to reestablish himself as a dominant closer next year. In case it doesn't happen, the team does have
Jeremy Accardo, whom it feels can be a capable replacement. Accardo still hasn't given up a run in 18 innings this season, seizing closing duties from
Jason Frasor in the process. Accardo is more likely to be a long-term setup man than a closer regardless of Ryan's status, but he is a decent stopgap.
Frasor, manager John Gibbons' preferred choice after Ryan went down, seems likely to be with another team by this time next year, as the club is about fed up with his inconsistency.
Brandon League was supposed to be the Jays' top setup man this season, but he suffered a torn rotator cuff, another injury the club kept quiet until it had no choice but to fess up. He's trying to make a comeback without surgery and might get a look in a setup role within a month. However, his velocity still isn't all the way back.
Casey Janssen is currently setting up Accardo and looking like a stud, but he belongs in the rotation and should get that opportunity later this year.
Dustin McGowan doesn't have the control to succeed as a starter, but he's been tried in relief before and will be again.
2008: Ryan, Accardo, League, McGowan
2009: Ryan, League, Accardo, McGowan
2010: Ryan, League, Accardo,
Paul Phillips
Notes of the Week
- Let me get this straight: Lou Piniella takes
Angel Guzman out of the rotation because of his inability to work deep into games and wants to replace him with the closer?
Ryan Dempster? The guy who in his seven years of starting games posted ERAs of 7.08, 4.71, 3.66, 4.94, 4.79, 6.19 and 6.54? And why can't the Cubs carry one five-inning starter when everyone else in the rotation is averaging better than six innings per start? Nothing that has happened this year has altered my opinion that Piniella lost his mind somewhere around the second year of his tenure in Tampa Bay. I honestly think he does more harm than good at this point.
With Dempster apparently staying in the closer's role for now,
Sean Marshall will likely get a look as the fifth starter. The left-hander is plenty interesting and it'd be a good idea to take a flier on him in NL-only leagues. Guzman loses his short-term value with the switch back to the pen, but he would be a candidate to close if Dempster eventually does switch roles. I think his command makes him a better bet there than
Carlos Marmol. Still, both are worth owning in NL-only leagues. Lost in all of this is that Michael Wuertz has been the Cubs' best reliever and should get the first chance to close. However, Dempster has been just fine so far. He's struck out 21 in 20 1/3 innings and maintained a 1.03 WHIP, so he doesn't deserve to lose his job.
- The Rangers are in the market for a third baseman with
Hank Blalock out 10-12 weeks, but they probably won't give up much talent to get one. It'd make a lot of sense to pick up
Morgan Ensberg, as he'd surely come cheap at this point. If the Rangers don't make a trade, they'll have to get by with
Travis Metcalf,
Ramon Vazquez,
Matt Kata and
Jerry Hairston Jr., who also landed on the DL last week with a pinched nerve. The club indicated that Metcalf would get most of the playing time, but the lefty-swinging Vazquez has had two big games since his callup to turn himself into a decent short-term option. No one in the group has much in the way of offensive upside, even in that ballpark.
-
Rocco Baldelli's latest hamstring injury figures to cost him a month or more, making
Elijah Dukes the Rays' primary center fielder.
Greg Norton is back from knee surgery now to share DH time, but it looks like
Jonny Gomes will have more of an opportunity to make his presence known. Ideally, he'd run away with the job by hitting a bunch of homers over the next few weeks. However, if he doesn't get hot right away, manager Joe Maddon will be content penciling in Norton.
-
Tim Lincecum guaranteed himself a rotation spot with another strong showing Thursday against the Astros. As a result,
Russ Ortiz will rejoin the Giants as a reliever. Obviously, Lincecum needs to be owned and used in all formats.
- A's manager Bob Geren doesn't sound like a man who is considering it, but what if
Jack Cust is still hitting a couple of homers per week in the DH spot when
Mike Piazza returns next month? Could Piazza go back behind the plate and replace
Jason Kendall, who has been a massive liability on offense? It's a long shot at this point, but if Piazza says he's comfortable with the idea, it's something that'd have to be looked at.
- Even though
Andrew Miller impressed Saturday against the listless Cardinals, the Tigers are still saying he'll go back to the minors when
Jeremy Bonderman (finger) is activated. Bonderman is likely to pitch Friday, so AL-only leaguers will want him active this week. Mixed leaguers could look elsewhere.
-
Orlando Hernandez (shoulder) is on target to return from the DL on Friday or Saturday and should be activated in NL-only leagues.
-
Octavio Dotel (oblique) will return Tuesday, but since he'll probably be eased back into the closer's role, he's not a must play in mixed leagues this week.
Joakim Soria should probably be left active in most formats. He'll still be worth owning in AL-only leagues even after Dotel reclaims the job.
Anyway, I think you pretty much have to account for intentional walks because you never know "what would have happened." Very rarely anymore do you see the intentional walk to get the righty-righty or lefty-lefty matchup, the intentional walk is now used to minimize damage a certain hitter could do. How can you not penalize a pitcher for walking Bonds when, if he had pitched to him, he might have smacked a home run. I know it's a matter of "might have" but that is the reason you can't not penalize them. (Sorry about the double negative!)