NFL Fantasy Football News 2008

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Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Minicamp Matters

There is no hitting at minicamps, or any offseason activities prior to training camp for that matter. We can take only a few things from these workouts: preliminary depth chart news, which is only somewhat helpful because players aren't necessarily "competing" yet, and how receiver-to-quarterback combinations "look." Passing is featured in June workouts. All linemen do is hand fight. There are no tackles for running backs to break.

Here are seven topics we can reasonably keep track of during the upcoming month. Don't use this to draft your fantasy team, but how these situations develop will help us know what to expect come training camp, which begins the last week of July. I promise not to make one mention of Jason Taylor, Brian Urlacher, or Cowboys SS [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL]. Enough is enough already.

Broncos RB Pecking Order with Travis Henry Sidelined

With Henry out all next week and possibly until the end of the month, it will be interesting to see how practice carries are divvied up. Selvin Young is first in line, but rookie Ryan Torain is fully recovered from his senior-year Lisfranc injury and in the thick of it. Will Torain go second behind Young or third behind Young and Andre Hall? And where will newly signed Michael Pittman fit in? The Broncos are unlikely to carry more than four tailbacks into the season. One of the above must go.

I personally do not believe Henry will be a Bronco in Week 1. He's one missed/failed drug test from a year-long suspension, unreliable physically, and the only running back on Denver's current roster that doesn't contribute on special teams. If Henry fails to clearly separate himself from the pack, which he obviously cannot due while nursing a hamstring strain, he's not going to help Mike Shanahan's club.

And as for the notion that the Broncos' zone-blocking scheme "just isn't that effective anymore" or "has been figured out" and should be avoided by fantasy owners, that's simply false. Though the last two years have been unpredictable due to rotating Bells and Henry's suspension situation, Denver finished in the top eight in yards-per-carry both seasons. Last year, the Broncos ranked third overall.

Seahawks Wideout Clutter

Coach Mike Holmgren consistently transforms mediocre wideouts into big-time producers in his pass-friendly West Coast offense. This year should be no different. Holmgren needs three (flanker, split end, slot) starters to emerge from a cast of Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Chas Gessner, Jordan Kent, Ben Obomanu, Logan Payne, and Courtney Taylor.

Since wide receiver is the position we can get the best feel for during the minicamp process, expect some interesting Seahawks posts on the Rotoworld news page. These seven competitors are definitely worth getting to know. Engram and Burleson are the biggest names of the group, but don't discount Payne, Taylor, Obomanu, or Kent. For now, Engram is penciled in at flanker with Burleson at the X. Payne is getting an early look in the slot.

The Ronnie Vs. Ricky Split
miamidolphins.com
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL] came out of his first face-to-face meeting with new Dolphins VP of football operations Bill Parcells feeling like a committee member. Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano have a history of using RBBCs. It's early, but looks like that trend will continue in Miami. And it's probably a good idea considering Ronnie Brown is coming off a torn ACL and Williams a torn pectorals. Both are healthy now, so keep an eye on how practice carries are split. If Ricky and Ronnie are sharing work with the first team at minicamps, it'll be an indication of the Dolphins' plans for training camp and the season.

Also keep track of gifted Toledo product Jalen Parmele, one of the first draft picks to sign a rookie contract. At 6'0/221 with plenty of speed, Parmele has the skill set to be a factor if Brown or Williams experiences a setback. Williams has just six NFL carries since 2005 and two season-ending injuries over that span (including his broken arm in the CFL), so he's no sure bet to last long.

Reggie Williams Rising
jacksonvillejaguars.com
Williams topped our preliminary fantasy busts list because his ten touchdowns in 2007 were fluky. The 2004 first-round pick started only six games and was buried at 65th in the league in red-zone targets. Williams converted five of those nine targets for scores, but caught more than two passes in just six contests. He has yet to top 650 receiving yards in a season.

We're a bit more optimistic now that Williams is running as the starting flanker in coordinator Dirk Koetter's vertical attack. With a 16.6 yards-per-catch average and 13 plays of 20 yards or more in 2007, Williams showed surprising downfield ability and may be coming into his own in that area. While Koetter's offense should remain run-heavy because that's where the Jags' best talent is, Williams' outlook would be much brighter with a set role. See if there are more reports on how the Jags plan to rotate their wideouts and if '07 third-rounder Mike Walker can ever return from his chronic knee condition.

Does it Matter that Cedric Benson has <A href="http://www.chicagobears.com/news/NewsStory.asp?story_id=4718"">Slimmed Down?

Benson claims he changed his offseason diet and naturally lost weight. He's roughly 10 pounds lighter and reportedly looking quicker than ever. This may be typical summer fluff, especially with ultra promising second-round pick <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4685">Matt Forte added to Chicago's backfield. Still, Benson desperately needed another step and perhaps he's added one by shedding the lbs.

Coach Lovie Smith says Benson remains the Bears' starter, if only because he's the incumbent. But many coaches will say this time of the year that all positions are up for competition. Lovie didn't and that at least means something. Smith could be trying to build up Ced-B en's confidence or is just being his loyal self. This battle won't play out until August, but more positive reports about Benson's fitness and speed would be welcomed by his many destitute dynasty owners.

<A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3653">Brandon Marshall's Due Date

The AFC's best run-after-the-catch receiver appears to be recovering ahead of schedule from offseason arm surgery. Marshall's cast was removed in early April and he ran routes during mid-May voluntary workouts, defying original projections. But Marshall suffered nerve damage in the arm, isn't catching passes yet, and his legs weren't the problem anyway.

Coach Mike Shanahan expects Marshall to be cleared for receiving drills by June 22. There was initial concern about Marshall's status for Week 1, but the 22nd would be over a month before the start of training camp. If he participates to the extent Shanahan anticipates, Marshall's recovery will be well ahead of schedule. Also monitor reports of how Marshall looks. If he hasn't lost feeling in the arm and avoids drops, Marshall can safely be considered among the top ten fantasy picks at his position.

Ravens Receiver Shakedown
<A href="http://www.baltimoreravens.ws">baltimoreravens.com
<A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3621">Demetrius Williams has been the Ravens' most intriguing receiver since he was drafted in the 2006 fourth round. He's a deep threat with good size (6'2/197), but has struggled to stay consistent as a pro. Williams has to intrigue new Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who like mentor Norv Turner loves bigguns at wideout. However, an Achilles' tendon injury has limited Williams early on. Healthy incumbent <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3150">Mark Clayton, who goes 5'10/195 and isn't too dissimilar from former Cameron disciple <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=607">Eric Parker, appears the favorite to start opposite <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=222">Derrick Mason as it stands. But Cameron wants to use three receivers in his base set this year, and ideally the three-wide look will consist of Williams, Mason, and Clayton.

The sleeper in all this is 6'2/212-pound rookie <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4873"><A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4771">Marcus Smith, a fourth-round pick from New Mexico. Williams has Smith to worry about just for the third receiver position. It's hard to imagine much production coming out of Baltimore's passing game in Cameron's debut season, but the one-time Dolphins head coach has been known to quickly develop players before. This is a situation to monitor in deep leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Henry and June
The Shanahanigans in Denver are off to an early start this season. The Broncos coach, lovingly known for throwing curveballs at running back to fantasy leaguers, cut presumptive starter Travis Henry Monday.

The timing was a surprise, but the end result wasn't. Our own Evan Silva wrote last week he didn't expect Henry to make the Denver final roster. This completes a swift decline for a player taken in the first round of 2007 fantasy drafts, and it leaves a hole in a traditional fantasy football goldmine. Let's dig to see who will get the value now.

[SIZE=+1]Selvin Young [/SIZE]

ESPN's John Clayton revealed Monday that Henry was cut largely because he didn't react well to being demoted behind Young. (Henry simply stopped showing up to work after learning the news). While the Mastermind may have ulterior motives, Young's early starter status is a sign that his 2008 ceiling was underestimated.

Shanahan created a stir early in February by saying Young was a 10-15 touch-per-game back; a complementary player. Young's injury history and skill set partly supports the claim, and fantasy leaguers swallowed the quote whole as gospel. Looking back, perhaps Shanahan was attempting to motivate Young to prove him wrong.

Young entered minicamp season breathing fire, saying his goal was to top 2,000 yards this season. While that number is unattainable, Henry's release allows Young a chance to be an every-week fantasy starter.

He's hardly without talent. Young finished fifth in the NFL in yards-per-carry with a 5.2 average as a rookie. He excels as a receiver, but runs through tacklers with great power for his size. Young must prove he has the staying power of a workhorse back, but the opportunity is there.

Since unpredictability can still be expected in Denver, we wouldn't draft Young before the fifth round. He's unlikely to start 16 games, but I'd bet on him putting up quality fantasy starter numbers for a portion of the year. He's an intriguing boom-or-bust early RB3 pick.

[SIZE=+1]Michael Pittman[/SIZE]

Pittman is perhaps the signature third-down back of his generation. Denver coaches will not expect him to suddenly start carrying a team at age 33. Pittman comes from a similar system in Tampa, so the transition should be smooth, even if his ceiling is limited.

At best, Pittman will split the workload with one of Denver's young backs. He could act as a spot starter if injuries strike, but the Broncos would rather see their young players emerge. It's more likely that Pittman will get to help on passing downs and see a handful of carries each week. Pittman's place on the team is secure and a target of 40-50 catches and 75 carries is reasonable. He has stand-alone fantasy value in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues and extra value as a possible handcuff. We wouldn't go higher than a RB4/5 pick. He currently has a thirteenth-round grade in our online draft guide, coming out this week!

[SIZE=+1]Ryan Torain[/SIZE]

The wildcard. Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, and Young have emerged from obscurity to be fantasy assets this decade, and Torain could be next. In fact, he has a better resume than they did as a fifth-round pick (they were undrafted), whom Shanahan said has "first-round ability."

The Broncos do not cut Henry unless they are confident in both Young and Torain. Like Young, there are durability questions about Torain, who missed most of last season with a foot injury. Otherwise, he fits perfectly into the Denver running back recipe:

1 part tackle breaking ability
1 part decisiveness hitting a hole with explosion
1 part sub-par long speed that overly knocks draft stock

In my early industry drafts, I was surprised to see Torain slipping to the twelfth or thirteenth rounds. Sure, he's an unknown. But when taking lottery tickets late in drafts, I prefer the ones with the biggest prize. Torain owners could hit the jackpot for a cheap price. We have him graded as a worthwhile RB4 gamble.

[SIZE=+1]Andre Hall[/SIZE]

Hall is probably ahead of Torain on the depth chart for now, but ultimately he's a fourth-stringer. He's listed here because he'd be the only truly shocking Week 1 starter, and Denver is always good for a few surprises. Hall did show NFL skills with a 4.9 yards-per-carry average last year.

Like the rest of the Denver backfield, Hall is worth monitoring all summer. Values will fluctuate between now and Week 1, and fantasy leaguers are along for the ride. That's more than we can say for Travis Henry

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Picking your Spots

What would you do if someone let you pick your draft spot for 2008? You know, you just entered your favorite league and the commissioner came out and said, "Johnny, where would you like to draft from this year? Pick a spot, any spot and it's yours."

Well, your first reaction would be astonishment and then you'd figure out that having the first pick in ANY fantasy football league has to be a good thing, right? You'd probably take the first pick and worry about the other rounds later, right? You'd have the best player in fantasy football and build around the best cornerstone in the game.

In our new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship, we kind of give you this option. Okay, it's not as good as the scenario above, but you get the idea. We've always wondered why game operators just force you to draft from the spot they give you and not allow a little more strategy in this area of the game. So in the NBC FFC, we allow you to rank your draft preferences and then we seed all teams accordingly after we randomly pick each league, just like they do in the Kentucky Derby. We call this system KDS for Kentucky Derby System.

Here's how it works and then we'll analyze the strategy behind this and how you can learn something from earlier satellite leagues:

1. We randomly pick the order of each league, 12 teams per league.

2. We then look at the KDS preference of Team No. 1. If they want the first pick, we place them there. We then look at the second pick and look at their KDS preference. If they had 1 first and 2 second, then we seed them second since the first pick was already taken. We then look at the third team and if they had 4 as their first preference we seed them fourth. We do this for all 12 teams until a new draft order is formed.

3. We've been doing this for the past two years now in the National Fantasy Football Championship and teams on average move up about 2.5 spots than if we had just left everything random. The average KDS preference that each team gets is 4.5, which means they usually get their fourth or fifth preference.

One way we add to this concept in the new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship is by using 3RR, which stands for Third Round Reversal. In our new contest, we go 1-12 in Round 1 and 12-1 in Round 2, but then go back to the bottom to start Round 3, again going 12-1. From Round 4 through Round 20, we continue serpentine 1-12 and 12-1. By reversing the third round, we provide more value to the bottom draft slots. And since people can now use KDS to select their favored draft slots, the combination of KDS/3RR provides a mix of favored spots for everyone involved.

Okay, here's an example of a recent pay NFFC Satellite League using KDS/3RR. These are 14-team leagues, so 3RR really helps the end picks in this format. Here are the 14 preferences used by the owners in this money league, ranked in most preferred to least preferred:

2,3,1,4,5,14,13,12,11,8,7,6,10,9
10,11,12,13,14,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
1,12,14,13,11,2,3,4,5,10,9,8,7,6
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,14,13,12,11,10
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6
1,2,3,4,5,6,14,13,12,11,9,8,7,10
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
5,4,3,2,1,6,7,14,13,12,11,10,9,8
1,2,14,13,3,12,4,11,10,5,6,7,8,9
1,3,2,4,5,6,13,14,12,11,10,7,9,8
1,2,3,4,5,7,14,13,12,11,10,6,8,9
1,2,3,4,7,8,14,13,12,11,5,6,10,9
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,6,7,8,9,10,11
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,6,7,8,9,10,11

Here's some interesting facts from this league:

** The average KDS preference obtained was 5.4, which is a bit higher than other leagues. Not everyone got the draft spot they wanted, but most still improved their draft spot.

** Two owners got their first preference and three owners got their second preference. However, owners also got their 9th preference, 11th preference and 12th preference.

** 11 of 14 owners took No. 1 as their first preference and eight owners started with 1,2,3,4,5 as their first five choices. Two other owners also had the top five picks as their top five choices, just in a different order. Interestingly, those who didn't select 1 as their first preference chose 2, 5 and 10 first. Very interesting.

So why were so many KDS preferences similar to start out? It's obvious that these owners feel the top five running backs are worth chasing if at all possible. They may not agree on the exact order of these backs, but it's obvious that most of them want LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL] or Joseph Addai to build their teams around. After that, folks don't mind dropping to the bottom of the order to get three of the Top 30 picks.

Interestingly, with 3RR nine owners have pick No. 14 in their top half of preferences. At that spot, the owner will get the 14th, 15th and 29th picks. And if you look at early Cheat Sheets, owners can still get one or two good running backs there and at least one or two star wide receivers. Going RB-WR-WR is a solid strategy this year from down there.

From early drafts, No. 6 is the most interesting pick of the first round. After the top five players, some folks like Frank Gore with Mike Martz now running that offense in San Francisco. But on our Mock Draft ADP list, Gore is currently ranked 11th. Topping out the first round from 6-14 on our ADP lists are:
6. Tom Brady
7. Randy Moss
8. Larry Johnson
9. Marion Barber
10. Ryan Grant
11. Frank Gore
12. Willis McGahee
13. Terrell Owens
14. Marshawn Lynch

When making out your KDS preferences, look at how the second and third rounds will play out as well because you may like certain spots better than others if you target certain players. Some folks like to start out WR-WR-RB, or even WR-WR-WR in our PPR league and thus love to move down in the draft order to the back end. Target players you want early and then set your KDS accordingly to build the foundation of a winning fantasy football team in 2008.

This is just another twist to this great game we all enjoy and we'll use KDS/3RR in all of our live events and the NBC Sports and NFFC Satellite Leagues. It might not be a twist for everyone, but in our high-stakes format we feel that empowering the owners with as much control as possible is a good thing. After all, Johnny may just like pick No. 14 this year instead of pick No. 1 and KDS allows Johnny that choice. Now that's a good thing.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Be Part Of The Brady Bunch
Tom Brady had a season for the ages last year, one that may not be duplicated anytime soon. He set an NFL record with 50 TD passes, while adding 4,806 yards passing with only eight interceptions. Fantasy teams that took Brady last year were golden as he truly was Tom Terrific, the Golden Boy of Fantasy Football.

This year, Brady's stature as the best quarterback in fantasy football is being elevated to new heights. He's not only going as the first QB drafted in off-season mock drafts, he's going in the Top 10 overall in most drafts. His Average Draft Position on MockDraftCentral.com is sixth as he's become the third QB in the last 10 years to go this high early on. In 2002, Kurt Warner was a consensus Top 5 pick and in 2005 Peyton Manning was a Top 10 pick.
indianapoliscolts.com
Unfortunately, fantasy teams get no bonus points this year for last year's stats. Brady may go high on Draft Day, but there's no guarantee that he will come close to last year's record-setting numbers. In fact, history says that he probably won't come close to those numbers in 2008.

Let's look at Warner and Manning for further proof. Warner was the league MVP in 2001 when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl with 36 TD passes and 4,830 yards. The next year, he struggled through seven injury-riddled games and finished with 3 TD passes and 1,431 yards. In 2004, Peyton Manning was the league MVP as he finished with a then-NFL record 49 TD passes and 4,557 yards. In 2005, he was good but not great, finishing with 28 TD passes and 3,747 yards.

Now despite those two examples, there is precedent for a QB playing at an MVP level like Brady did last year and maintaining that excellence over time. Brett Favre greenbaypackers.com is the NFL's only three-time MVP and he accomplished that in three straight seasons. In 1995, he threw for 4,413 yards and 38 TDs. He followed that up in 1996 with 3,899 yards and 39 TDs as the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, and in 1997 he won his third MVP award by throwing for 3,867 yards and 35 TDs. He didn't even fall off in 1998 as he finished with 4,212 yards and 31 TDs as Terrell Davis won the league MVP award.

Brady could easily follow up his MVP season of 2007 with another MVP-caliber performance. He has the weapons to excel with Randy Moss and Wes Welker leading the passing attack, and Laurence Maroney stabilizing the running game. He has the best offensive line in football. He has the most innovative head coach in the game who loves to pour on the points no matter what the score is. He stays healthy and releases the ball before he takes too much of a hit ? other than the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, that is. The offense is built around Brady and the schedule is very much in New England's favor this year, so everything is set up for him to have another good year on a team that is favored to win this year's Super Bowl.

But now for the $100,000 question: Can you really win a fantasy football league title by taking Brady ? or ANY quarterback for that matter ? with a Top 10 pick? I mean, with fantasy football success concentrated so heavily on securing a stud running back, another good running back and wideouts who catch a lot of passes and score a lot of TDs, can you really win with a quarterback as your franchise foundation? Talk to me. Can it happen and will it happen in 2008?

Half of the congregation is shouting "HALLELUJAH!!" The other half is shaking their heads in disbelief. I, personally, can't take a QB that high as it's like taking a starting pitcher in the first round of a baseball draft. You're always chasing offensive stats after that. But I will admit that I do see reasons for Brady being a worthy Top 10 pick this year. Let's analyze the data and then come up with a solid conclusion.

Here's the data and analysis:
** POINT: Last year in the National Fantasy Football Championship where TD passes are worth 6 points each, Brady scored 550.1 points, or an average of 34.3 points per game. Tony Romo was second at 430.7 points or 7.4 fewer points per game. Every other quarterback except for Romo and Peyton Manning was at least 10 points per game behind Brady and the second-tier starting QBs were as much as 15 points per game behind Brady. He dominated this position like nobody else.

** COUNTERPOINT: Last year in the NFFC his ADP was 45, so on average he was an early to mid fourth-round pick. He was selected behind Manning, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees last year, but this year he's going ahead of all other QBs, all WRs and all but a handful of RBs. That's a lot to live up to and he better come back with 25+ points per game this year to live up to that draft spot. If you project Brady to have 35+ TD passes this year, then taking him in the first round is justified. But if he slips to 25-28 TD passes, then it will be a pick that won't blossom into a championship season.

** POINT: That being said, the QB position may be as weak and unpredictable as any in recent memory. There is a top tier of 6-7 QBs and after that it falls off quickly and hard. Put Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, Palmer, Derek Anderson clevelandbrowns.com and maybe Ben Roethlisberger in that top tier and go get one of them if you can this year. After that, Matt Hasselbeck has promise, but then you're looking at Eli Manning, Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Philip Rivers sandiegochargers.com as your starting QB. There are just too many question marks with each of those second-tier QBs to wait too long to secure your top QB there. With that in mind, Brady looks even better in the first round.

** COUNTERPOINT: To win with Brady as your first-round pick, you MUST correctly make your next two picks for sure. You almost have to take an RB in the second round and that RB has to work out well. And if you are in a Point-per-Reception league, you need to find a top WR in the third or fourth round and keep getting value after that. Trying to gain back those points at RB that others are getting with their first-round picks is tough, but you can do it with solid picks in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. Then when others are scrambling for a QB, you are taking the best RBs and WRs. But again, it's tough and you need to target the right guys in Rounds 2 and 3 if you take Brady first.

** POINT: You can't win a league with your first-round pick, but you certainly can lose it. Let's think of some names that cost us titles last year: Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Bush, Travis Henry. Yikes. Brady is so consistent that he will get you first-round points that will allow you to contend for a title. You won't win this year's title because of Brady, but you will create a solid foundation for your franchise with Brady.

** COUNTERPOINT: The key to Brady's success this year is Randy Moss's health and attitude. Can Moss really play in 2008 with the same desire and fire and tenacity that he had in 2007? If he does, then Brady is Tom Terrific again. If not, then that lessens Brady's value, Welker's value and everyone else's value on this team. No QB is more tied to one of his wideouts than Tom Brady, and that includes Carson Palmer with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] and Romo with T.O. Brady NEEDS Moss again this year and so do you if you take Brady in the first round.

So there you have it. There are lots of good reasons to take Brady sixth or seventh overall. There are also lots of good reasons to hope he falls to the end of the first round. The bottom line is that if you feel confident enough that you can secure your RB and WR positions AFTER taking Brady in the first round, then go for it. He won't disappoint you in 2008.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Minicamp Tour: Wideout Drama
Rotoworld continues to rank [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] as if his offseason drama isn't happening. The best way to deal with bad behavior is to ignore it.

Since Day 1, we have believed that Johnson will show up to work well before it's time to get paid. And once he's on the field, he'll perform like a top-10 wide receiver, like he always does. Johnson's adventures at minicamp convinced us more than ever that this is the right approach for fantasy leaguers to take.

It's as if Ocho Cinco wants to pull a T.O., but he doesn't have the heart to go that loco. By the final minicamp practice, Johnson was practicing fully with the first team. He was discussing how to improve plays with Carson Palmer. There are bound to be headlines coming out of Johnson's mouth in the coming season, but don't expect it to affect the box scores.

***

This is the second part of my minicamp wrapup. I looked at the the AFC East and North last week, and now will focus on the AFC West and South.

[SIZE=+1]AFC West[/SIZE]

Oakland Raiders: Javon Walker was having a rough offseason even before being found unconscious on a Las Vegas street Monday with an orbital bone (eye socket) fracture. It's too early to understand the long-term implications, but this is a serious setback. Walker was already being chided in Oakland for being out of shape. I wondered his conditioning was simply the effect of his knee injuries making him look slow. Hopefully he can recover from this latest setback, but he's been through a lot over the last two years. We were already skeptically of a rebound. oaklandraiders.com

Rotoworld man-crush Ronald Curry is back from surgery to remove a bone spur in his foot. With Walker's abilities uncertain, Curry still could emerge as a big factor in Oakland this season. He needs to stay healthy and have JaMarcus Russell develop; one of the two will probably fall short. We rank him as a WR4, but ahead of Walker. ? I am not buying the Drew Carter hype. He has a role in the offense, but he's exactly the type of player to look good in faux football practices that take place in shorts and t-shirts. ? Russell's offseason work was reportedly inconsistent. Dynasty leaguers have to worry that he's improving his short game in a West Coast offense, then may have to re-learn a brand new system when Al Davis inevitably pushes Lane Kiffin out the door. ? Michael Bush's strong offseason only further clouds the value of Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. This could be a three-man committee. Look for the Raiders to be among the most run-heavy teams in the league.

Denver Broncos: Mike Shanahan didn't wait for training camp to lay surprises on us at running back. The latest was second-year pro Andre Hall running as Selvin Young's backup at minicamp. Michael Pittman, who figures to be a third-down back, was going third. Rookie Ryan Torain was fourth. Torain remains the most likely candidate other than Young to start in 2008, but this depth chart was a good reminder to be prepared for anything. If Hall can maintain his spot until late August, which we doubt, he's going to be draftable in fantasy leagues after the first 100 picks.

Brandon Marshall is expected to begin catching passes with two hands on June 22. Early reports regarding his progress from surgery to repair nerve damage in his arm have been positive. If all goes well in August, he will be in our top ten receivers. ? No unit has received more puff pieces this offseason than the newfangled Denver receiver corps. My early take is that Keary Colbert has a legitimate chance to knock off Darrell Jackson for a starting job. And the winner either way is a sleeper. Brandon Stokley better stay healthy or he risks losing playing time to them or rookie Eddie Royal. ? The boot is off Tony Scheffler's foot, but he wasn't 100% before practices ended. He's one of the injured players to watch closely in July.

Kansas City Chiefs: We didn't learn much from Chiefs minicamp, but we know Larry Johnson is healthy enough to practice every day. His value is causing a plenty of debate, but the majority of drafters aren't that concerned about him bouncing back. He's going in the top ten. Rotoworld has him at the end of the second round because the Chiefs offense should still be among the league's worst. ? Devard Darling is the favorite to start opposite Dwayne Bowe, but rookies Will Franklin and Marcus Price have a shot. At least Bowe has Tony Gonzalez and Johnson to deflect attention. ? Damon Huard could be used as trade bait. He's fallen behind Tyler Thigpen on the depth chart. Because I don't trust Brodie Croyle to be particularly healthy or productive, Thigpen will probably start some games this season. kansascitychiefs.com

San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates' foot is a greater concern than Philip Rivers' knee. It would be a great upset if Rivers doesn't play in Week 1, even if his play is diminished. Gates is a total mystery and isn't even running yet. We projected a "Big three" at tight end that includes Gates, Jason Witten, and Kellen Winslow. Gates needs to show something by mid-August or lose his place atop that group. ? If Gates misses any playing time, Vincent Jackson will benefit like he did in the playoffs last season. ? LT2 owners looking for a handcuff should currently go for rookie Jacob Hester. Darren Sproles is just a role player. sandiegochargers.com
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]AFC South[/SIZE]

Houston Texans: Not a lot of news in minicamp season at running back for Houston, where five players are angling for playing time. Ahman Green is legitimately healthy, and he'll have to stay that way to keep his starting job. Steve Slaton looks likely to handle passing down work. Chris Taylor is the player most likely to rise from deep within the depth chart. Chris Brown lingers. There is potential here, but I'd only take a Texan back as a RB4 or flier. ? Jacoby Jones, the sleeper from a year ago, appears to have passed Andre Davis on the depth chart again. He has an outside chance to pass Kevin Walter for a starting job, which would put him back on the radar.

Indianapolis Colts: When the news about Marvin Harrison broke, I thought we had another Michael Vick story going, with daily updates and tiring intrigue to follow. Instead, the case has been silent until the Philadelphia D.A. asked for more evidence Monday. That's a good sign for Harrison because the city officials don't believer their case against Harrison (or whoever is charged) is strong enough yet. The Colts are cautiously optimistic Harrison will be ready for the season physically. I'm now cautiously optimistic the NFL will let Harrison play. indianapoliscolts.com

Harrison's status is the biggest issue hanging in Fantasy Nation heading into camp. His availability will drastically change value for Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark. ? If you are looking for a deeeep sleeper, Colts No. 4 receiver Roy Hall isn't a bad one. ? Dominic Rhodes should be considered the slight favorite to backup Joseph Addai, but don't assume Kenton Keith and Mike Hart are out of the running.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Williams appears to have locked up a starting job, which makes him borderline draftworthy in fantasy leagues. Most will still overrate him. Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker will cut up that pie. ? Word in Jacksonville is that they are expecting a huge season from Jerry Porter. His nagging hamstring injury this summer is a concern, but only if it lingers into training camp. ? Former first-round pick Matt Jones could be in his final months with the team. Troy Williamson and Mike Walker look like better bets to make the club. ? Fullback Greg Jones is now two years removed from his latest ACL surgery, so he's a bigger threat to steal goal-line work from Maurice Jones-Drew. jacksonvillejaguars.com

Tennessee Titans: It doesn't appear Brandon Jones' arrest will get him kicked off the team. He still has a chance to start this season, but Justin Gage and Justin McCareins are the current favorites. With the Williams trio also in the mix (Roydell, Mike, and Paul), there is no predicting how this group will shake out. Stay away from the whole situation. ? Despite some positive offseason press, third running back [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] may not even be active on Sundays for Tennessee. ? I'm not convinced Alge Crumpler will be a good fantasy starter again, but he has enjoyed his healthiest offseason in three years. tennesseetitans.com

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Evaluating The RB-RB Approach
There used to be several universal truths in this world. Death. Taxes. Alyssa Milano could make anything worth watching and if you don't believe me I have four words for you:

"Embrace of the Vampire."

Meanwhile, in fantasy football, you always drafted a running back with your first two picks. Always.

The savvy fantasy owners have begun to alter their approach in recent years. They realize that going RB-RB to start your draft is no longer a guarantee of success. With more teams going to Running Back By Committee situations, there are fewer unquestioned three-down backs and there are also a larger number of running backs who can generate viable to much greater production on a weekly basis.

For example, two of the past three overall champions in the National Fantasy Football Championship have gone RB-WR to start their draft. Last year's champs Ryan Welch and Jeremy Jurwitz did go RB-RB to start but when their second-round pick, Thomas Jones, disappointed, it was their WR depth of Marques Colston (third round) and Plaxico Burress (fourth) which provided much greater fantasy returns during the year.

So what's a fantasy owner to do this year? It may depend on where you're slotted in the first round.

According to Average Draft Position data on MockDraftCentral.com, RBs continued to dominate the early portions of NFFC drafts. Of the first 20 picks, only six non-RBs were being taken (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo). So NFFC owners picking in the 10-14 range of the first round appear more inclined at this time to go RB-RB with their first two picks.

That has resulted in a flurry of WRs being taken by the owners with one of the first nine picks in their draft. Wide receivers are currently dominating overall picks 20-30 in NFFC drafts. Consider:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP of 21)
Larry Fitzgerald (22) arizonacardinals.com
Braylon Edwards (23)
Andre Johnson (25)
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] (28)
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] (29) carolinapanthers.com
Marques Colston (30)

So rather than reaching for a RB in the second round they may not like, NFFC owners with a Top 9 pick are leaning toward grabbing a strong WR option to pair with their first-round RB. That's a strategy I would employ as well and have in most of my drafts so far. But there is one RB who has me leaning back toward the RB-RB approach.

Reggie Bush.

In a full PPR league, taking Bush in the second round is a strong move. I passed on doing that in our KP1 Expert League draft in May, taking Terrell Owens instead of Bush to team with Frank Gore, who I selected with the 10th pick in the first round. However, one month later in the FantasyGuru.com Experts Draft, I also had the 10th pick and after taking Ryan Grant in the first round, I went with Bush in the second and then grabbed a pair of WRs (Torry Holt and Plaxico Burress) in the third and fourth rounds.

In looking at the two teams, I prefer the approach I utilized in the FantasyGuru draft. While TO is a stud receiver, having Bush as my RB2 in a PPR league has tremendous value and potential in my opinion.

While Bush has been a disappointment as a runner in his first two seasons, the one thing he has proven without question is he'll gobble up the receptions. He caught 88 in his rookie season and had 73 in 12 games last year. So in his first two seasons, he has averaged 5.75 receptions per game. In a PPR league, that has huge value as a RB2 if you can get it.

So if you're in a full PPR league or an NFFC league (which awards .5 points/reception for RBs), taking Bush in the second makes RB-RB a very viable strategy this year. But if Bush is off the board, I would lean toward taking one of the top WRs in the second round. Given the depth at the RB position this year, you can go RB-WR and still find a quality RB2 in the third or maybe even the fourth round. Among the options there in NFFC drafts so far have been:

Ronnie Brown (ADP of 31) miamidolphins.com
Maurice Jones-Drew (32)
Earnest Graham (33) Tampabaybuccaneers.com
Michael Turner (35) atlantafalcons.com
Edgerrin James (38)
Darren McFadden (52) oaklandraiders.com
Thomas Jones (54)

With RBs like that available in the third and fourth rounds, it's become easier to shift away from the hardcore RB-RB approach which has defined fantasy football drafts for so long. Toss in Tom Brady's emergence as a probable first-round pick and this year, more than any in recent memory, we could see a lot of variety in the early rounds of drafts.

All of that is making the 2008 season one of the most fascinating to watch from a fantasy perspective

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Chad Johnson mending fences
I promise to stop posting about what dribbles out of [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL]'s mouth soon. But his latest interview on Bengals.com is the best proof yet that Ocho Cinco is in full-blown fence-mending mode. I've long said that I plan to draft Johnson as if this offseason drama never happened. (He's ranked seventh at wideout in our draft guide). And these comments are the best proof yet that he's not going to cause more problems.

On showing up to training camp: "Come on," he said. "Did you really think I wouldn't come?"

On Carson Palmer and hitting big numbers: "He looked at film and looked at the things we missed on from Week 1 to Week 16 and he said 1,800 (yards) was reachable if we're perfect. Of course, Carson and I were off on plays we usually clicked. We left a lot of plays on the field. We talked about what he and I need to do starting in July. We have a lot of work to do."

Brilliant move by Palmer. Appeal to Johnson's need for stats to get him in line. I wouldn't be surprised if he said something like, "Think about the money you can make once I get you 1,800 yards."

My favorite part of this interview is that Johnson admits how poorly he played last year. Even though the numbers were there, he was inconsistent and reportedly blew a lot of assignments.

"I wasn't right. I wasn't technical enough. Nowhere near as sound as I have been. For what a (multi) Pro Bowl veteran should be. I was very inconsistent. ... I played very poorly. Coach Brat is probably the only person who can get in my face and tell me that. Or Carson," Johnson said.

"I look at it and say, 'Damn, I did this. I did that,' " he said. "But that's not what he's looking for. He's not looking at the numbers. He's looking at the times I was inconsistent. Even if I do mess up, I should be able to make a play. But I couldn't with the screwups I was making."

Johnson admits that he was doing his best to get booted: "I did everything under the sun to get out of here. I acted psycho. I posed my case. I talked with my owner, who loves me dearly. He must. Those offers were unheard of. And he still said no. Really, I'm not that good."

Johnson claims that his offseason problems weren't about money, which I don't believe. But he also is beginning to realize that he can make the most money by producing.

"We have a bigger issue here. Money will take care of itself. If I go out and continue to be way above here, then it's going to have to happen."

Music to Fantasy Nation's ears. We are people that only deal in numbers, not personalities. And Johnson is properly in position to get his usual top-10 numbers, if not better.

Editor's Note: This originally appeared in our daily fantasy blog, Pancake Blocks. For more on the Bengals, check out our video team preview.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Minicamp Tour: Giant problems?

Forget the personal drama surrounding Jeremy Shockey. The bigger question is how healthy he will be at the start the season. Shockey broke his leg near his ankle last December and still isn't fully ready to practice with the team. At the time of the injury, the Giants said that the ankle issue wasn't serious, but Shockey is a player who has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He's a bigger injury risk than usual after missing so much work this offseason. There's little reason to think he'll finally elevate from good to great in 2008.


[SIZE=+1]NFC East[/SIZE]

New York Giants: Plaxico Burress' contract situation isn't a huge concern for fantasy leaguers. It would be a shocker if he's not practicing by mid-August, if not earlier. ? It's uncertain why exactly Ahmad Bradshaw is in jail, but I suspect it doesn't matter. He played too well last season for the Giants to cut him. That's just how the league works. If Bradshaw develops, he could get almost equal touches with Brandon Jacobs. ? Eli Manning is getting a modest post-Super Bowl bump in Average Draft Position, rankings up to the QB10 spot. We have him ranked thirteenth at the position, although 10-13 is very closely bunched. ? Sinorice Moss hasn't done anything to indicate that he's ready to contribute. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] is more likely to be New York's third receiver. NY Giants

Dallas Cowboys: I wrote at length about this in the blog, but the Cowboys need for a number two receiver is overrated. They already have one in Jason Witten, and Patrick Crayton is a fine number three. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are battling to get snaps on the outside, which will allow Crayton to work from the slot. I don't see the winner of Hurd vs. Austin being a great sleeper because he will be the fifth option most plays, behind the three receivers mentioned and Dallas' running back. ? Terry Glenn wasn't mentioned above because I don't expect him to make an impact this season. The Cowboys probably don't either. ? It was interesting to hear Jason Garrett mention Sean Payton's use of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush as a template for Marion Barber and Felix Jones, with Jones in Bush's role. Garrett and Payton are from the same coaching tree and spent three years together in New York while Garrett was a player. While Barber will undoubtedly be the lead back, Jones' role may be bigger than MBIII owners hope.

Minicamp Tour: AFC West and South
Minicamp Tour: AFC East and North

Philadelphia Eagles: One player to watch in Eagles training camp is Lorenzo Booker. If he continues to impress, the Eagles can be more cautious with Brian Westbrook's workload, especially early in the season. It seems unlikely that Westbrook will get 368 touches again this year. It may be tough to pick a true handcuff for Westbrook, because Booker and Correll Buckhalter could split time if Booker is out. ? I'm not worried about Donovan McNabb's shoulder. He is on a pitch count, like many quarterbacks. McNabb will always be an injury risk, but expect a much-improved season when he's on the field. ? The Eagles spread the ball around too much for fantasy leaguers to worry about who wins their third receiver job. Rookie DeSean Jackson hasn't impressed thus far. Tight end L.J. Smith is a better candidate for value as a cheap TE2.

Washington Redskins: Washington is a huge mystery team until the season starts. Santana Moss, Clinton Portis, and Jason Campbell aren't natural fits for a West Coast offense, so the transition to Jim Zorn's offense could be rough. Moss is great at deep routes, but now will be asked to catch shorter passes as a flanker and make yards-after-the-catch. Campbell has a great arm, but timing hasn't been his strength. One good sign for Portis is that he enjoyed a rare healthy offseason, and his work ethic is reportedly improving.
washingtonredskins.com
Early indications are that Devin Thomas is well ahead of Malcolm Kelly at receiver, which isn't a surprise. If Thomas can push into the starting lineup, with Antwaan Randle El going to the slot, he can be the best rookie wideout in the NFL. That's not saying much. ? Randle El had knee surgery and missed the last five weeks of OTAs, but should be ready for camp. His role could be diminished this season. ? Chris Cooley owners could also worry about losing production, if only because the old system was so tight end friendly.
<!--RW-->[SIZE=+1]NFC North[/SIZE]

Chicago Bears: The Bears aren't that interested in signing a veteran running back, which is great news for rookie presumptive starter Matt Forte. Forte should challenge Jonathan Stewart for the most touches from a rookie running back, making him a fine fourth or fifth-round pick. ? I recently had a dream that Mark Bradley was cut and that we had to take him out of our online draft guide undervalued candidates. This is a sad reflection on my life, not Bradley. Still, he has some work to do in order to get a starting job after undergoing knee surgery recently. His injury history makes him a risky pick, but he has upside for a flier. Old friend Brandon Lloyd is also in the mix to start.

With the wide receiver position so murky, expect a lot of targets for tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark - especially if Kyle Orton gets the starting job. ? The Orton vs. Grossman battle is reportedly a stalemate heading into training camp. I would guess Orton wins, but neither is a fantasy option.

Detroit Lions: Losing Mike Martz hurts Detroit's passing game, despite the spin coming from the team. But it won't necessarily hurt [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] and Calvin Johnson. Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey will see far fewer targets, so the Detroit starters will see a larger portion of a smaller pie. ? It would be a surprise if rookie running back Kevin Smith wasn't starting by October, if not earlier. It would also be a surprise if he can top 250 carries after going over 450 last season in college. I'm staying away from all the Lions' runners. ? Drew Stanton was supposed to challenge Jon Kitna for snaps this year, but early reports suggest he's got a long way to go. That helps Kitna's job security, which is a major concern if Detroit gets off to a slow start. detroitlions.com

Green Bay Packers: Ryan Grant is unsigned, butexpect a deal before training camp starts. The Packers are clearly counting on him carrying the load this season. He needs to improve his play in short-yardage situations. Brandon Jackson should help out more on third downs after an improved offseason. ? James Jones remains ahead of Jordy Nelson on the Packers depth chart, as you'd expect. If Donald Driver continues to decline, Jones could pick up some of his production. greenbaypackers.com

The Packers don't seem interested in signing another veteran quarterback. Rookie Brian Brohm will backup Aaron Rodgers. That raises the possibility of a Brett Favre comeback. If Rodgers got hurt early in the season, will the Packers hand the keys of a veteran team over to a rookie? Green Bay could also look at a veteran in camp if Brohm struggles in the preseason.

Minnesota Vikings: It looks like Sidney Rice will play flanker, while Bernard Berrian will play split end in Minnesota's offense. Considering how much Tarvaris Jackson struggles on deep balls, Rice could be the better fantasy bet of the two. He could see more targets and will certainly come at a cheaper price. ? Every year, we read tons of stories of plans to use both running backs in the same backfield at the same time. It rarely happens much, and has little fantasy impact. Chester Taylor has plenty of stand-alone fantasy value this season because [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL] is a shaky bet to play 16 games, but it's not because they will line up in the same backfield. minnesotavikings.com

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Rating Randy
Two weeks ago, I asked the question, "Can you win a league title this year by taking [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1163"]Tom Brady[/URL] in the first round?" Brady's Average Draft Position (ADP) is now at No. 6, likely the highest position for any quarterback since [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1256"]Kurt Warner[/URL] in 2002. But even as good as Brady was last year and is expected to be this year, can you honestly win a title by drafting a QB THAT high?

After much analysis and even a practice run of drafting Brady seventh this week in a 14-team NFFC Satellite League, I'm convinced that you can win a league title with Brady as a Top 10 pick. In that draft, I still was able to get a solid RB ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3642"]Laurence Maroney[/URL]), a solid WR ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=412"]Torry Holt[/URL]) and a solid backup RB ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3042"]Earnest Graham[/URL]). By the time other owners were trying to find a suitable QB, I was gobbling up solid wideouts in [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1618"]Jerricho Cotchery[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=469"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL][/URL][/URL], while adding suitable depth later on. So it can be done in larger leagues like the NFFC and it certainly can be done in 12-team leagues.

While I'm not trying to belabor this point, it made me ask the next obvious question when looking at the first round: "Can you win a league title this year by taking [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1655"]Randy Moss[/URL] in the first round?" After all, no wideout since [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=851"]Jerry Rice[/URL] has gone as high as Moss is going this year. His ADP right now is 7th after he set an NFL record last year with 23 TD receptions and added 98 catches for 1,493 yards. Wide receivers have gone as high as 12th in recent years, but nobody in the last decade has consistently been selected in the Top 10 like Moss has been this year.

So let's analyze Moss' situation and see if it makes sense to take him this high.

First of all, more leagues are going to Point-Per-Reception scoring systems, so drafting a wide receiver first certainly makes sense these days. The days of RB-RB-RB are LONG gone in PPR leagues and a guy like Moss can downright dominate this position, even with the incredible depth that the WR position offers. In a 12-team PPR league we hosted last night, 12 of the first 24 picks were wideouts, with Moss leading the way as the FOURTH overall pick.

In our NFFC Classic and NBC Sports NFFC Primetime Leagues where WRs get 1 point per reception, Moss was a dominant force in 2007, outscoring everyone except Brady, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2730"]Tony Romo[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1493"]Peyton Manning[/URL]. Moss scored an NFFC record 385.3 points for wide receivers through 16 weeks, or 24.0 points per game. No running back was within 45 points of Moss, whose ADP was 46 in the NFFC last year. indianapoliscolts.com

Three other wideouts, however, also topped 300 points with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1496"]Reggie Wayne[/URL] totaling 312.4, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=718"]Terrell Owens[/URL] 307 and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3126"]Braylon Edwards[/URL] 302.9. Those players currently have ADPs of 12 for Owens, 14 for Wayne and 23 for Edwards.

So even during a record-setting season, Moss isn't as dominant at his position as Brady was at QB. Brady scored an NFFC record 550.1 points, which were a whopping 120 more points than Romo. He was so dominant that only four QBs were within 180 points of Brady, or at least 11 points per game less than him for 16 games.

Nobody at the RB position was as dominant as Brady with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=561"]LaDainian Tomlinson[/URL] sandiegochargers.com leading the way with 339.7 points, but his 21.2 points per game average was actually slightly lower than [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=716"]Brian Westbrook[/URL]'s 21.7 as Westy played one less game than LT2. The dropoff after those two RBs was almost five points per game per player, similar to the dropoff at WR for other WRs outside of the Top 5 compared to Moss.

With an emphasis on passing in today's game and with the Patriots committed to their wide-open attack, there's every reason to believe that Moss will be the top wide receiver in 2008. Yes, he comes with risk based on his lack of motivation at times, but failing to win a Super Bowl ring should be incentive enough to motivate Moss, Brady & Co. to go after a win every week once again. And with a weak strength-of-schedule, his numbers actually could improve this year.

In the four years of the NFFC, there has been only one running back or receiver to score more points than Moss did last year and that was LT2's 458.3 season in 2006. He had the best NFL season for any back and Moss had the best season ever for a receiver last year. Since 2004's debut NFFC season, only one other WR other than Moss in 2007 led the backs and wideouts in scoring and that was [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1500"]Muhsin Muhammad[/URL] in 2004, who scored 330 points. The only other wideouts to top 300 NFFC points were [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL] carolinapanthers.com with 338.8 points in 2005, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1661"]Larry Fitzgerald[/URL] 308 in 2005, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1502"]Marvin Harrison[/URL] with 302.6 in 2006, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1011"]Joe Horn[/URL] 301.8 in 2004 and the four wideouts in 2007.

The key to drafting Moss in the Top 10 is to make your position projections now and compare him to other wideouts and running backs. We've done our projections for Fantasy Sports Magazine and have concluded that Moss should top 300 points again with totals of 90 catches for 1,350 yards and 16 TDs. They are modest totals and would equal 315 NFFC points. We also have [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1496"]Reggie Wayne[/URL] at around 300 points and Edwards just under that total, so the dominance is slightly lesser this year for Moss.

Still, with more depth at RB this year, it's obvious that you can anchor your franchise by selecting Moss with your first pick and still getting two good RBs after that. If he equals our projections, he's worth a Top 10 pick without a doubt. If he comes anywhere near last year's numbers, he's a worthy Top 6 pick. Do your own analysis and come up with your own conclusion, but through my research I'm convinced that a healthy, happy [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1655"]Randy Moss[/URL] will more than justify that first round pick in 2008. And he might even lead your team to that league title you've always coveted.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Minicamp Tour: NFC West, South

Kevin Jones is the only game-changing running back left on the market. By game changing, I mean that his presence dramatically alter the fantasy values of all his new teammates. At this point, I don't even expect Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry to get signed. LaMont Jordan will be cut, but he's more of a role player. Same with Najeh Davenport. Ron Dayne is somewhere, wondering where it all went wrong.

Tampa's reported interest in Jones is telling. They don't quite see Earnest Graham as a true franchise back ( look at his contract) and perhaps they are realizing that Michael Bennett and Warrick are better names than players. The other prime landing spot for the out-of-work back is New Orleans, where Deuce McAllister's career is still in question. Second-year pro Pierre Thomas is one of our favorite sleepers, but the Saints might get nervous with him as Reggie Bush's tag team partner, especially with Thomas nursing a sore groin in June.

Editor's Note: Thomas is ranked 41st at running back in Rotoworld's latest online draft guide cheat sheets. For access to all the projections, tiers, articles and stats, click here.

[SIZE=+1]NFC South[/SIZE]

Atlanta Falcons: Forget the Joe Horn rumors to Dallas. The Cowboys know that he's done as a productive pro. So do the Falcons; expect Horn to get released before the season. (And yes, the demise of Hollywood makes Gregg Rosenthal very depressed.) ? In a column for our second magazine, a Falcons beat writer estimated that Matt Ryan would be starting by Week 4. Keep that in mind when projecting Roddy White's chance for a repeat season. ? If Laurent Robinson was on any other team, he'd be one of our favorite deep sleepers. Of course he probably wouldn't bet starting on most teams. Still, the second-year pro has a chance to develop into a poor man's Lee Evans. atlantafalcons.com

Carolina Panthers: Everyone in Carolina says Jake Delhomme's arm got stronger like some baseball pitchers after Tommy John surgery, which sounds great. 300-pound men don't tackle relief pitchers, though. We are still skeptical Delhomme will be as accurate as he used to be, and he has always been streaky. I would bet that Matt Moore starts multiple games for the Panthers. ? Dwayne Jarrett is going to need an injury by D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad to play in his second season. For now, Moose looks like the starter, although I expect a rotation no matter who gets the Week 1 call. ? Jonathan Stewart is expected to carry the load for the Panthers this season, but he still hasn't practiced because of his toe injury. He's supposed to be ready for the start of camp. carolinapanthers.com

Minicamp Tour: AFC West and South
Minicamp Tour: AFC East and North
Minicamp Tour: NFC East and North

New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for LaMont Jordan and other running backs. That supports my belief that Deuce McAllister is highly unlikely to contribute much this season. Unfortunately, another teammate would be bad news for Rotoworld's favorite ADP value, Pierre Thomas. ? Marques Colston's knee surgery proved to be minor, and he was fully practicing in June. Colston still has room to improve entering his third season, making him a potential top-five wideout. ? Robert Meachem predictably enjoyed an improved offseason. The second-year pro has an outside chance to start, although I expect Devery Henderson, David Patten, and Meachem to cancel each other out.

Tampa Bay Bucs: I wrote in the blog that Earnest Graham's contract wasn't a good sign for how the Bucs view him. He's being paid like a backup, and anyone drafting Graham has to worry that Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett will cut into his workload. Still, I don't remotely trust Dunn or Bennett, and perhaps the Bucs don't either. Tampa's reported interest in Kevin Jones clouds the picture further. Jones' versatility would be a perfect fit for that roster, although it's uncertain how soon he'll be ready to play football again. Carnell Williams is likely to start the year on the PUP list and may not be ready until late in the season. ? Going into training camp, it looks like Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton are battling for a starting gig, with Ike Hilliard likely to man the slot. Bryant should have the edge in talent and is one of our favorite sleepers if he gets the job. ? Luke McCown has surprisingly stayed ahead of Brian Griese for the backup quarterback job. I expect McCown to start a few games this year, whether it's due to poor play from Jeff Garcia or an injury. Tampabaybuccaneers.com <!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]NFC West[/SIZE]

Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart is the starter, but Ken Whisenhunt made it clear that he's on a short leash. Working in Leinart's favor is that Arizona's schedule sets up favorably the first five weeks of the season. ? Anquan Boldin wants a new contract, but it isn't a major concern for fantasy leaguers. He should be on time for camp. ? Steve Breaston is the early favorite for third receiver duties, although we'd bet on third-round pick Early Doucet getting most of the work by the end of the season. Neither is very interesting unless Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald gets hurt. ? The Cardinals are going to remain a pass-first team because of personnel. Edgerrin James might be more effective with less work, but so far his backups (Tim Hightower, J.J. Arrington, Marcel Shipp) haven't shined. arizonacardinals.com

San Francisco 49ers: Since Mike Martz aggressively praises all his players, it's hard to get a read on San Francisco's jumbled roster. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL] remains the heavy favorite to start at quarterback, but he hasn't pulled away from Shaun Hill just yet. Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce appear locked in to the starting wideout jobs, with Arnaz Battle likely to be number three. Jason Hill and Ashley Lelie are probably fighting for scraps. ? Perhaps the most promising thing to come out of summer reports is Martz's eagerness to split Vernon Davis out wide and use him often as a receiver. Martz hasn't used tight ends as receivers much in the past, but he could be adjusting his playbook. ? It's also clear that the offense will run through Frank Gore, like Martz once did for Marshall Faulk. Expect at least 70 catches. I see the world through Gore-colored glasses, but I think fewer carries will keep him healthy.

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks wide receiver position is wide open, although we expect Bobby Engram to settle his contract dispute and start opposite Nate Burleson. That leaves Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne, and Ben Obomanu fighting for the third spot. Taylor looks like the slight favorite, and the winner here will be a nice deep league sleeper. ? Matt Hasselbeck is going to get overdrafted based on last season's numbers. His pass attempt total is likely to go way down, and the receiver position is weaker than it's even been in Hasselbeck's career. ? It's clear Mike Holmgren isn't a huge T.J. Duckett fan. We don't expect him to have a major role, even in short-yardage situations. Julius Jones should get the majority of the carries, with Maurice Morris looking like a fine late round pick. ? Rookie John Carlson is no lock to start at tight end, so he's someone to avoid. .

St. Louis Rams: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]'s colonic aside, it's been a quiet offseason in St. Louis. Just ask Evan Silva about the local Rams coverage if you want to hear a bitter man. While Jackson has struggled with a few minor injuries, he will be supremely motivated to have a great contract year. The big question is whether the St. Louis offensive line is any better. If Orlando Pace got hurt again, it could get ugly. ? Torry Holt appears to be healthy this offseason, which is great news after struggling with a knee injury for the last two seasons. ? Al Saunders does a great job with tight ends, which makes Randy McMichael a reasonable TE2 option in deeper leagues. Someone has to catch passes in St. Louis, and the reserves at wideout are weak. That also bodes well for Drew Bennett, who is getting overlooked in most drafts. I'm not a huge believer in his talent, but he'll get a lot of targets for a late-round pick. Bennett was taken earlier last season when he was coming off the bench.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Offensive Line Rankings
Line play heavily influences fantasy production. The game is decided in the trenches. A dominant run-blocking line can turn an undrafted free agent into a 1,600-yard rusher, or resurrect a declining back's career. A unit that can't protect will often get its quarterback hurt and/or ruin a team's season. We saw that last year in St. Louis, and to some extent in Carolina, Chicago, and Baltimore.

Taking statistics, scheme, experience, and depth into consideration, I've ranked the league's offensive lines in order from 1-32. Note that in-season injuries are the biggest variable when ranking offensive lines. That's why having experienced or promising depth behind a starting five can matter so much.

Listed below the teams are Gregg Rosenthal's o-line rankings from the last two seasons.

1. Patriots
2006: 8
2007: 9

Throwing out their Super Bowl performance -- we'll credit Steve Spagnuolo's fire-zone blitzes for that, rather blame line coach Dante Scarnecchia or the Pats' talent -- this Logan Mankins, Stephen Neal, and Matt Light-led unit was unrivaled in 2007. All five starters return from a group that allowed only 21 sacks despite attempting the fifth most passes in the NFL. Reserves Wesley Britt, Ryan O'Callaghan, Oliver Ross, and Russ Hochstein all possess starting experience and position versatility.

2. Colts
2006: 10
2007: 1
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
The Colts can manufacture linemen and GM Bill Polian drafts for scheme fit. Losing a starter (i.e. Jake Scott this offseason) is rarely a problem. Tony Ugoh didn't miss a beat on Peyton Manning's blind side after Tarik Glenn's surprise retirement last year, and is an upgrade athletically. After C Jeff Saturday retires, 2008 second-rounder Mike Pollak will probably replace him. All the members can pass block. Indianapolis hasn't yielded over 25 sacks in a season since 2001.

3. Browns
2006: 19
2007: 29
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
The additions of Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach were a godsend to Cleveland's offense last season. Both play with a mean streak and are mobile pass protectors. Kevin Shaffer proved a better fit at right tackle after manning the blind side in 2006, and RG Ryan Tucker and C Hank Fraley are solid starters. The Browns are exceptionally deep with G/C Rex Hadnot signed to push Tucker. Whoever finishes as Cleveland's quarterback should have a nice, clean jersey in Week 17.

4. Cowboys
2006: 17
2007: 22

Dallas' powerful starting five boasts a massive left side of OT Flozell Adams (6'7/340) and OG Leonard Davis (6'6/354). Jerry Jones invested two high draft picks on projects James Marten and Doug Free last April, and either could replace contract-year RT Marc Colombo in 2009. This group supports Marion Barber's no-nonsense running style and protects Tony Romo more than adequately.

5. Vikings
2006: 9
2007: 8
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Minnesota might've topped this list if not for LT Bryant McKinnie's legal woes. McKinnie is unlikely to be available for more than 12 games this season and would be replaced by squatty guard Artis Hicks. It's still a top-five unit due to the dominant inside work of C Matt Birk, LG Steve Hutchinson, and rising RG Anthony Herrera. After Herrera was installed as a starter in Week 6 last year, the Vikings averaged 175 rushing yards per game despite [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]'s injury. Young RT Ryan Cook, a college center, is still developing. Tested veteran Marcus Johnson provides depth behind him.

6. Jaguars
2006: 20
2007: 5
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
Another group of maulers, Jacksonville's line consistently wins the battle at the point and boasts sound depth. Khalif Barnes isn't the ideal blind-side protector and has had off-field issues before, but RT Tony Pashos and LG Vince Manuwai are 320+ pound run-blocking specialists. G Uche Nwaneri and backup LT Richard Collier are promising prospects. The Jags' yards-per-carry average was second in the league in 2006 and tied for third in 2007, thanks in no small part to these trench warriors.

7. Eagles
2006: 12
2007: 3

The Eagles surrendered too many sacks in 2007 as LG Todd Herremans and LT William Thomas played hurt. Thomas may be on his last legs, but this remains one of the NFL's most talented, deep lines. C Jamaal Jackson, RG Shawn Andrews, and top backup Max Jean-Gilles are beasts inside. RT Jon Runyan is a vicious run blocker. Philadelphia ranked second in the league in yards per rush last year.

8. Chargers
2006: 11
2007: 2
www.sandiegochargers.ws
San Diego would be higher if not for C Nick Hardwick's foot injury (Hardwick could miss the first quarter of the season). LT Marcus McNeill does a first-rate job protecting Philip Rivers, while Hardwick, Mike Goff, and Kris Dielman are mainstays inside. RT Jeromey Clary, a potential liability, is probably better cut out to play guard.

9. Giants
2006: 14
2007: 15
www.newyorkgiants.ws
There were doubts about David Diehl's ability to play left tackle in 2007, but he held up and was rewarded with a $31 million extension in May. Steady guards Rich Seubert and Chris Snee are also signed long term. RT Kareem McKenzie is a 6'6/330-pound bruiser. The Jints have experienced reserves in Grey Ruegamer and Kevin Boothe, and are still high on the potential of OT Guy Whimper. It's a power blocking unit designed to clear lanes for a deep stable of backs.

10. Titans
2006: 24
2007: 14
www.tennesseetitans.ws
Tennessee made sure intimidating tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart would be around for the long haul this offseason, extending both through 2013. Leroy Harris has been developed to replace retired G Benji Olson. C Kevin Mawae is the line's heart and soul and Jake Scott comes from Indianapolis to replace Jacob Bell. The run-first Titans pound the rock behind this group.

11. Jets
2006: 29
2007: 19
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets paid the price for mishandling Pete Kendall's situation last summer, but should have one of the AFC's top units again with LG Alan Faneca added between youngsters D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. Though he may struggle in protection, RT Damien Woody should be an upgrade over Anthony Clement in the ground game. The additions bode well for Thomas Jones.

12. Buccaneers
2006: 26
2007: 16
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Road-grading guards Arron Sears and Davin Joseph, both top-35 picks the last two offseasons, are this group's strength and support Earnest Graham, master of the four-yard gain. New C Jeff Faine also helps. LT Donald Penn was up and down as a first-year starter in 2007, but will benefit from the adversity.

13. Seahawks
2006: 1
2007: 10

Once almost indisputably the league's best, the Seahawks' line has taken a step back since losing Steve Hutchinson. Young C Chris Spencer has battled injuries and RT Sean Locklear has been a shade inconsistent. Still, LT Walter Jones remains a legitimate All Pro and Seattle gets fine all-around line play even if Shaun Alexander's statistics didn't support it.

14. Panthers
2006: 13
2007: 21
www.carolinapanthers.ws
When it rains it pours, and we saw how bad it can get last year in Carolina. The Panthers' lost multiple quarterbacks and starting LT Travelle Wharton to injury. With mauling first-round tackle Jeff Otah on buard, John Fox should get back to his rock-pounding ways and feed Jonathan Stewart religiously.

<!--RW-->

15. Broncos
2006: 3
2007: 6

Denver's zone-blocking system is a plus, but uncertainty at center (Tom Nalen, 36, is recovering from knee surgery) and competition at right tackle leaves room for concern. While first-round LT Ryan Clady should succeed immediately, we can't reasonably put the Broncos higher than this.

16. Packers
2006: 27
2007:16
www.greenbaypackers.ws
The Packers haven't found great depth behind technically sound OTs Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, but they impressively blend power and zone blocking and have a promising interior line with at least four starting-capable guards. Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have an obvious excuse if he failed as a starter.

17. Bengals
2006: 4
2007: 4

It's easy to like the nucleus of LG Andrew Whitworth, G/T Stacy Andrews, and rookie Anthony Collins, but left tackle Levi Jones' health has become a serious question mark. There are also issues at center, and RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson are aging. This line is great in pass pro and can power block with anyone if it jells, but Rudi Johnson's performance has sagged badly the past two seasons.

18. Redskins
2006: 5
2007: 7
www.washingtonredskins.ws
The Redskins have quality starters, but their depth is questionable and knocks Washington down in our rankings. Two members (RT Jon Jansen and RG Randy Thomas) are coming off serious injuries. But if they're healthy, this can be a potent run-blocking wall for Clinton Portis.

19. Steelers
2006: 6
2007: 13

Pittsburgh's line gets somewhat unfairly criticized for yielding sacks because no QB hangs in the pocket (often with success) like Ben Roethlisberger. Rashard Mendenhall's addition should make the group look better because he'll likely be a better inside runner than Willie Parker and will pick up the blitz.

20. Bills
2006: 18
2007: 22
www.buffalobills.ws
LT Jason Peters is quietly threatening a holdout, but when he's on Buffalo opens holes and is above average in protection. RT Langston Walker and LG Derrick Dockery are monster maulers.

21. Saints
2006: 28
2007: 11

This line played above its head in '06 and returned to earth last season. It's really a middle-of-the-pack group, but still talented (LT Jammal Brown, G Jahri Evans) with developmental depth (T Jermon Bushrod, G Andy Alleman). Sean Payton throws more than anyone, even Mike Martz, which helps Drew Brees' numbers but can leave the linemen out to dry.

22. Cardinals
2006: 26
2007: 27
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Arizona threw a ton in 2007 and this group protected well. But the Cardinals ranked 30th in yards-per-carry average.

23. Texans
2006: 31
2007: 31

This group couldn't keep Matt Schaub healthy in 2007. Position coach Alex Gibbs' addition will help the ground attack, but Houston will likely start a rookie left tackle this year and the protection could be up and down again.

24. Bears
2006: 15
2007: 12

The Bears' line got old all at once in 2007, but should rebound some with John Tait moving to his natural right tackle position and first-rounder Chris Williams installed on the blind side. Still, Chicago's run blocking could remain inconsistent.

25. 49ers
2006: 32
2007: 17

San Francisco's line has potential, but C Eric Heitmann, G David Baas, and RT Jonas Jennings are coming off injuries. Martz's offense is pass heavy, so they need to get healthy and keep their heads on a swivel.

26. Rams
2006: 20
2007: 18

This unit was decimated by injuries last season. Though they possess plenty of talent, there are too many "ifs" for the Rams' line to be considered average.

27. Ravens
2006: 28
2007: 30
www.baltimoreravens.ws
The middle of Baltimore's line is a strength, but replacing Jonathan Ogden with raw second-year man Jared Gaither may not bode well for the Ravens' quarterback.

28. Dolphins
2006: 30
2007: 21
www.miamidolphins.ws
Miami's line has major power potential, but there are concerns about LT Jake Long's athleticism and the interior play.

29. Raiders
2006: 23
2007: 32
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Oakland has an excellent position coach in Tom Cable, but LT Kwame Harris was a turnstile in San Francisco and JaMarcus Russell could be on his back quite a bit in his first year starting.

30. Lions
2006: 25
2007: 24
www.detroitlions.ws
Perhaps the Lions have been unfairly downgraded here due to outrageous sack totals under Martz, but this group isn't any good until proven otherwise.

31. Chiefs
2006: 4
2007: 25
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Athletic first-round pick Branden Albert helps, but this is unlikely to be a successful line this season with multiple unproven starters.

32. Falcons
2006: 7
2007: 23
www.atlantafalcons.ws
New LT Sam Baker has short arms and RT Tyson Clabo isn't a power player. Atlanta's quarterback could be a sitting duck in 2008 and Michael Turner threatens to disappoint.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

A Ten Pack Of WR Values
In a tight economy, more than ever it pays to find a good value. The same holds true in a fantasy football draft. The values you find often are the players who help your team go from good to great.

In researching several recent drafts and utilizing MockDraftCentral Average Draft Position list, I've noticed some real bargains emerging in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts. One thing we've seen in our first four seasons of the NFFC is that having a strong WR corps is critical to achieving success. One can argue having strong WRs is more important than having strong RBs.

Last year, for example, three WRs and three RBs averaged more than 20 points per game in the NFFC. They were:

RUNNING BACKS
Brian Westbrook ? 21.7 points per game
Ronnie Brown ? 21.5 www.miamidolphins.ws
LaDainian Tomlinson ? 21.2 www.sandiegochargers.ws

WIDE RECEIVERS
Randy Mosss ? 24
Andre Johnson ? 21
Terrell Owens ? 20.4

So both positions were represented equally among the elite players. However, after that, the wide receiver position began to flex its muscle. Eight RBs averaged 15 points or more in the NFFC. Meanwhile, 19 WRs averaged 15 points or more.

Obviously there are more WRs than RBs to choose from in any fantasy league so that plays a part in these results. However, with so many RBs flaming out last season, the WRs were typically able to rise above the fray and provide their NFFC owners with more stability and production throughout the season.

Many of the WRs who averaged 15 points per game or more were found in the early rounds on Draft Day. However, a number of value picks emerged who played big roles for their owners in 2007. They were:

Brandon Marshall ? 17.5 points per game
Wes Welker ? 17.5
Greg Jennings ? 16.6
Bobby Engram ? 15.2
Santonio Holmes ? 15.2
Derrick Mason - 15

So who could follow in these receivers' footsteps in 2008? Here's a look at 10 WRs who are currently representing good value in NFFC drafts using MockDraftCentral's current ADP ranking.

Roddy White (ADP 72): White broke through in a big way last season, catching 83 passes for 1,202 yards and six touchdowns. He did all that despite the fact the Falcons offered little in the way of quality QB play. So I see no reason to worry about White's production falling off this season regardless of whether it's Matt Ryan or Chris Redman starting at QB. He's a strong WR2 who can often be grabbed as a WR3 in NFFC drafts. www.atlantafalcons.ws

Laveranues Coles (ADP 75): I'm not as high on Coles in standard-scoring leagues this year, but in the NFFC where WRs get a full point per reception I love his value here. Injuries led to a decline in production but Coles is only two seasons removed from a 91-reception campaign. Don't expect much in the way of TDs but as long as he's healthy, his receptions will help him generate quality value in the NFFC.

Jerricho Cotchery (ADP 77): I'm big on Cotchery this season and believe he has Top 20 potential in the NFFC. He's caught 82 passes each of the past two seasons and should see his TDs increase from the paltry two he delivered last year. I've targeted him and gotten him in a number of drafts already and I love him as a WR3 given his WR2 upside.

Anthony Gonzalez (ADP 82): Given how I have zero faith in Marvin Harrison, Gonzalez represents huge value in my opinion. If he's starting for the Colts, he could easily be a Top 20-25 WR in all scoring formats. To get that type of potential in the sixth round of an NFFC draft is huge value. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Derrick Mason (ADP 90): If Mason were a baseball player we'd be calling him a "professional hitter." He just shows up every year catches passes and generally flies under the radar on Draft Day. I highly doubt he'll catch 103 passes like he did last season but he's still the clear No. 1 WR for the Ravens and will get plenty of targets each week. You can't beat that in the sixth or seventh round. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Bobby Engram (ADP 91): With Deion Branch possibly out of commission for the entire season, look for Engram to be Matt Hasselbeck's top target again this season. In the NFFC, he has Top 20 potential given how Hasselbeck trusts him and will look for him in clutch situations. To get that type of production in the seventh round of an NFFC draft is a steal.

Nate Burleson (ADP 101): While Engram will gobble up the receptions, don't be surprised if Burleson gobbles up the TDs. He had a strong fantasy season in 2007 and the Seahawks have been raving about his offseason work. Seattle needs him badly and Burleson has the talent to deliver.

Bernard Berrian (ADP 102): Tarvaris Jackson stinks but so did the Bears' QBs who Berrian had to work with and he still caught 71 passes and five TDs last season. His speed and big-play ability could lead to a few more TDs this year, making him a fine value pick ? even if Jackson is still the QB.

D.J. Hackett (ADP 115): Hackett will need to stay healthy to keep Muhsin Muhammad out of the starting lineup, but if he can do that, he has the talent to shine opposite [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL]. He caught 32 passes and three TDs in only six games for Seattle last season, which shows you how productive he can be. His durability concerns have led to his value dropping into the eighth and ninth rounds, but that's a fine spot to grab him as a reserve who could deliver as a weekly starter. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Jabar Gaffney (ADP 152): Gaffney managed 36 receptions and five TDs last season while often seeing time as the No. 4 WR. If he earns a starting job as expected this season, he could improve upon those numbers even though the Patriots have plenty of talented weapons for Tom Brady to throw to. In the 10th or 11th round of an NFFC draft, Gaffney is the type of value pick who could turn to gold this season.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Projected Pass Attempts
Fantasy owners obsess about how many touches a starting running back gets. It makes sense; If Laurence Maroney doesn't get the ball consistently, his chances to score big fantasy points will be limited.

For some reason, we don't apply the same logic to quarterbacks. Pass attempt totals are overlooked when evaluating signal callers. While pass attempt totals tend to bunch together more closely than touches, they can still make a huge difference. Drew Brees threw 192 more passes in 2007 than his old teammate Philip Rivers. www.sandiegochargers.ws Per-pass, they were almost identical in their effectiveness. Brees scored 2.03 fantasy points-per-pass, while Rivers was at 1.99. But Brees' pass wacky ways made him a true fantasy starter, while Rivers was a mediocre backup.

I start my offseason rankings by projecting every team's pass attempt totals for the season, dividing the attempts up, and then working from that number. A player like Ben Roethlisberger with consistently low attempts or someone with job security questions like Matt Leinart naturally suffer. Their margin for error is slim. And as Brees owners will tell you, huge margins for error are awesome. Below are my rankings for projected attempts for the 2008 season.

Note:</B> With each player, I've included their total attempts from last season, the average number of team passing attempts in their current offensive system (usually with same head coach or coordinator), and my projected attempts for the season. In certain cases like Donovan McNabb and Marc Bulger where injuries play a factor, I've also include a player's personal average in his current system.

[SIZE=+1]On Another Level[/SIZE]

1. Drew Brees, Saints| Avg. Team Attempts: 603| 2007 Attempts: 652
Projected Attempts: 580

Attempts are the great equalizer for Brees; they make him among the safest picks in fantasy leagues. Even after projecting a 72-attempt drop, which brings him back to a land where his team occasionally runs or makes a defensive stop, we project him to have a 30 attempt jump on the field. That will help prevent any long slumps because his yardage will stay high.

He will need that advantage if his big plays don't rebound from a sub-par 2007. Knowing Sean Payton, this offense is never going to be totally balanced.

[SIZE=+1]The 500 Level[/SIZE]

2. Carson Palmer, Bengals| Avg. Team Attempts: 534| 2007 Attempts: 575
Projected Attempts: 550

The Bengals say they want to run more this season, but I don't think they have the talent to balance their offense. Their talent is all in the passing game. Palmer will still be a high volume quarterback, which could make him the best value of the top-six options.

3. Tom Brady, Patriots| Avg. Team Attempts: 538| 2007 Attempts: 578
Projected Attempts: 545

While Brady's attempts are likely to go down if Laurence Maroney stays healthy, New England will always be a pass-first team. Especially in the red zone. The bigger question with Brady is whether he can keep up his bananas 8.3 yards-per-attempt from last season.

Editor's Note: Too see our complete quarterback rankings, projections, and cheat sheets, check out the <A href="http://www.rotoworld.com/premium/draftguide/football/main_page.asp">Rotoworld Online Draft Guide</B>

4. Tony Romo, Cowboys| Avg. Team Attempts: 520| 2007 Attempts: 520
Projected Attempts: 535

There is natural concern that Tony Romo will take a step back after a ridiculously good first season as a starter. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's pass-happy ways ease those concerns. If Dallas trails a little more often, they might get as pass-happy as the Saints.

5. Eli Manning, Giants| Avg. Team Attempts: 536| 2007 Attempts: 529
Projected Attempts: 534
www.newyorkgiants.ws
Eli can be inconsistent from game-to-game, but he doesn't get hurt and his attempt totals are as consistent as anyone. That helps make him a safe, if unexciting, top-15 quarterback each year.

6. Peyton Manning, Colts| Avg. Team Attempts: 540| 2007 Attempts: 515
Projected Attempts: 525
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
Unlike Eli, Peyton's attempt totals have fluctuated wildly in recent years, and that makes huge difference in his fantasy value. In 2005, he threw 453 passes. In 2006, he threw 104 more and scored 69 more fantasy points. Despite his recent surgery, Manning will be ready for Week 1.

Manning should safely get over 500 attempts assuming the Colts don't dominate the competition with huge leads all year. It also helps when they don't clinch their playoff berth too early.

7. Marc Bulger, Rams| Avg. Team Attempts: 583| Avg. Bulger Attempts: 450
2007 Attempts: 378| Projected Attempts: 505

Breaking down Bulger's numbers further, he averages 563 attempts when he plays more than 14 games. That's only happened twice in five years. Scott Linehan loves to chuck it, especially in the red zone, another reason why Bulger is a true boom-or-bust option.

[SIZE=+1]Safe Options[/SIZE]

8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks| Avg. Team Attempts: 526| Avg. Hass attempts: 508 2007 Attempts: 562| Projected Attempts: 495

Hasselbeck is coming off his highest attempt total in four years by 88 attempts, mostly because Shaun Alexander attacked defenses with the enthusiasm of a Mike Holmgren diet. With a shaky receiver group and a strong running game, Hasselbeck's totals could fall off a cliff. That's one reason he's overvalued in most drafts.

9. Jay Cutler, Broncos| Avg. Team Attempts: 490| 2007 Attempts: 490
Projected Attempts: 495

Mike Shanahan keeps his offense balanced when possible, and can lean strongly towards the run when it's clicking. Cutler's YPA helps him greatly, but his attempt total should only be average. His durability and job security, however, are excellent.

10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers| Avg. Team Attempts: 604| 2007 Attempts: 28
Projected Attempts: 490
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Okay, so we haven't worked Brett Favre into the projections yet. The man is retired, and the most likely outcomes are that he's traded or stays retired. Neither affects Rodgers. When and if Favre un-retires, this number will change.

Mike McCarthy is near the top of the list of pass-happy coaches. That bodes extremely well for Rodgers, as does his deep receiver group. His projected attempts are relatively low mostly because of his injury history and status as a first-time starter. McCarthy may balance the offense to start the year.
<!--RW-->
11. Matt Schaub, Texans| Avg. Team Attempts: 529| 2007 Attempts: 485
Projected Attempts: 485

Schaub and Jay Cutler are Rotoworld's two favorite breakout candidates. I can see the Texans skewing pass because they could be in a lot of high scoring games (schedule and secondary are factors). Schaub's biggest obstacle to hitting his target is his health, not Sage Rosenfels.

12. Donovan McNabb, Eagles| Avg. Team Attempts: 553| Avg. Healthy Season McNabb Attempts: 495| Avg. McNabb attempts: 440| Projected Attempts: 485

I counted a "healthy" McNabb season as one in which he played 14 games or more. McNabb is going to throw plenty when healthy, but he's also likely to miss a few starts. McNabb will have to play very poorly to lose his job based on performance this season, and we don't see that happening.

[SIZE=+1]At Risk for Low Attempts[/SIZE]

13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers| Avg. Team Attempts: 442| 2007 Attempts: 404| Projected Attempts: 465

Mike Tomlin doesn't lean on the run quite as dramatically as Bill Cowher, but this is still one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Roethlisberger must continue to rely on a high yards-per-attempt and touchdown-per-pass average or he'll take a step back in fantasy leagues.

14. Derek Anderson, Browns| Avg. Team Attempts: 544| 2007 Attempts: 527
Projected Attempts: 465
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
Most fantasy websites have Anderson as a top-six quarterback. We don't have him in our top ten. That's because Brady Quinn's presence is factored into our projections. You don't want to invest in a quarterback that high if he must win games early and often to keep his job.

15. Jason Campbell, Redskins| Avg. Team Attempts: N/A| 2007 Attempts: 417
Projected Attempts: 460
www.washingtonredskins.ws
Campbell was ninth in the league in attempts before he was hurt last season, on pace for 535 attempts. Job security shouldn't be a concern, and new head coach Jim Zorn looks likely to run a balanced offense. It could lean pass once Campbell gets comfortable.

16. Jon Kitna, Lions| Avg. Team Attempts: 578| 2007 Attempts: 561
Projected Attempts: 450
www.detroitlions.ws
Kitna is the perfect example of a player whose fantasy value was buoyed by high attempts totals. Kitna didn't play particularly well under Mike Martz, but he threw enough to be a fantasy factor.

Kitna has two major problems this season: Martz is gone, and he probably has to win to keep his job. The Lions will run far more, and Detroit seems likely to look at Drew Stanton or Dan Orlovsky down the stretch unless they are in the playoff race. Expect a huge decline.

17. Philip Rivers, Chargers| Avg. Team Attempts: 460| 2007 Attempts: 460
Projected Attempts: 440
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Norv Turner is a run-first coach, and that isn't going to change with Rivers coming back from ACL surgery. Rivers doesn't have a huge margin for error, and his play is often inconsistent.

18. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs| Avg. Team Attempts: 505| 2007 Attempts: 224
Projected Attempts: 430
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
This ranking is higher than we'd expect. Herm Edwards loves slowing-paced offense more than any coach in the league, but they were forced to pass often last season because they always trailed in games. That should happen again, and Croyle has decent job security.

19. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders| Avg. Team Attempts: 450| 2007 Attempts: 66
Projected Attempts: 430
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Russell has fantastic job security, but the Raiders were as run-heavy as any bad offense in recent memory. That isn't likely to change with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush added to the mix. This limits Russell's upside in his first year starting.

20. Vince Young, Titans| Avg. Team Attempts: 455| Avg. Young attempts: 385
2007 Attempts: 382 | Projected Attempts: 425
www.tennesseetitans.ws
A couple notes here. Young's average attempts included his starts as a rookie, paced out if he had started 16 games. I also considered not including the average team starts because the Titans have a new offensive coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger.

Still, Jeff Fisher is the constant of the Titans attack. And Tennessee has leaned heavily on the run throughout his tenure, including when Heimerdinger was the OC years ago with Steve McNair. Young may throw deeper this year, but he's unlikely to be a high volume passer. Young gets much of his value from his running ability, though, so he can be a QB1 without throwing a ton.

21. David Garrard, Jaguars| Avg. Team Attempts: 465| 2007 Attempts: 325
Projected Attempts: 425
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
Garrard is so efficient that he's still our ninth-ranked quarterback despite the low attempts number. He must prove he can stay healthy for 16 games and the Jaguars are a run-first team, but there are signs that they will be more aggressive this season. This number is conservative. If Garrard can approach 500 attempts, he'd be a top-five quarterback.

22. Jake Delhomme, Panthers| Avg. Team Attempts: 480| 2007 Attempts: 86
Projected Attempts: 420
www.carolinapanthers.ws
If Garrard's attempts are conservative, Delhomme's are optimistic. My gut says that Delhomme is unlikely to keep his starting job long enough to reach 420 attempts, whether it's because of injury (elbow) or performance. We think the Panthers will pass more than usual, and have Matt Moore projected for 95 attempts.

23. Matt Leinart, Cardinals| Avg. Team Attempts: 590| 2007 Attempts: 112
Projected Attempts: 420
www.arizonacardinals.ws
The Cardinals balance their offense more when Leinart is under center. Plus Leinart continues to be hurt by job security questions. Kurt Warner still looms, and has 140 projected attempts.

24. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL], 49ers| Avg. Team Attempts: N/A| 2007 Attempts: 575
Projected Attempts: 420

I like Smith as a late-round QB2 pick if you take a top-five quarterback. I fully expect him to win the starting job, and Mike Martz will prop up his attempt totals ala Jon Kitna. Job security isn't great, but I can live with it for a flier pick.

25. Trent Edwards, Bills| Avg. Team Attempts: 445| 2007 Attempts: 269
Projected Attempts: 410
www.buffalobills.ws
The cagey Dick Jauron is as conservative as it comes. With a potentially strong running game and defense, don't look for Edwards to light it up in his first full season as a starter.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]Sub 400 [/SIZE]

26. Tarvaris Jackson| Projected Attempts: 390

Minnesota is a run-first team, and Jackson is an injury-prone starter without terrific job security.

27. Jeff Garcia| Projected Attempts: 380
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Jon Gruden was shockingly conservative with Garcia at the helm. Whether it's because of an injury or performance-related, expect Garcia to lose his job eventually.

28. Chad Pennington| Projected Attempts: 350
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets may want Kellen Clemens to win their starting job, but Pennington is the better player. And that should win out, even if it's not before Week 1.

30. Matt Ryan| Projected Attempts: 300
www.atlantafalcons.ws
Estimated time he'll take over: Week 5. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey skews to the run, but Atlanta's defense may give him no option but to pass.

31. Rex Grossman|Projected Attempts: 280

Oh, Rexy. Why do you make us choose between you and Kyle Orton when we have so much affection for you both? Grossman gets the nod by a hair because Lovie Smith usually goes with what he knows. Some Chicago writers believe Orton is more likely to get the first crack, though.

32. John Beck| Projected Attempts: 240

We fully expect Beck, Josh McCown, and Chad Henne to get extended cracks at the starting job during the season, while virtually eliminates all three from any fantasy discussion.

33. Troy Smith| Projected Attempts: 215

This admittedly could be conservative. While we expect Joe Flacco to play during the 2008 season, it probably won't be until late in the campaign. If Smith can win the starting job, he should be able to hold off Kyle Boller until it's Flacco time. Until we know who will start in Week 1, though, this is just guesswork.

[SIZE=+1]The Best of the rest[/SIZE]

34. Chris Redman| Projected Attempts: 175
35. Chad Henne| Projected Attempts: 160
36. Kellen Clemens| Projected Attempts: 160
37. Kurt Warner| Projected Attempts: 150
38. Joe Flacco| Projected Attempts: 143
39. Kyle Boller| Projected Attempts: 110
40. Shaun Hill| Projected Attempts: 100
41. Drew Stanton| Projected Attempts: 100
42. Matt Moore| Projected Attempts: 95
43. Brady Quinn| Projected Attempts: 90
44. Luke McCown| Projected Attempts: 90
45. Gus Frerotte| Projected Attempts: 80</B>

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Pack Fans: Stay Retired Brett
As a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan, season ticket holder at Lambeau Field, and survivor of the brutally cold NFC Championship Game, I feel qualified enough to say I know how Packer fans are feeling about the Brett Favre soap opera right now. In one sentence, here's the pulse of Packer Nation:

BRETT, HOW CAN YOU BE SO STUPID?
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Seriously, every Packer fan was disappointed and surprised to hear that Brett Favre was retiring in early March. Every Packer fan shed a tear with him at that March press conference. Every Packer fan felt Favre could still play for the Packers in 2008, was our best option at QB to return to the NFC Championship Game, and still could be an elite quarterback. But when he said he didn't know if he had the desire to work that hard again and felt it was time to hang up the spikes, Packer Nation agreed with him and moved on.

We kept our love for Favre, but moved onto the 2008 season. Bring it on Aaron Rodgers, we all felt, and good luck. We all know he has big shoes to fill, but life in the NFL has to move on and SOMEBODY has to play QB after Brett Favre, right?

Well, that somebody is back and pining for his old job two weeks before training camp. It's ludicrous to think that Favre should just come off his tractor in Mississippi, call up Mike McCarthy on June 20th and get his old job back. The NFL doesn't wait for anyone, which is why the Packers asked Favre to make a decision before the free agent signing period and before the NFL draft. It wasn't an unreasonable request by the Packers to ask him to make a decision by early March and all he had to do was say "yeah, I think I'm coming back" and the job would have been his. Nobody would have wanted Rodgers over Favre after last year's incredible season.

But he chose to retire in early March, he chose again in late March to tell McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson to stay at the owner's meeting in Florida instead of meet with him about coming back, and he chose to stay retired in May when Thompson visited with him at his home in Mississippi. He had plenty of chances to come back before all hell broke loose this week and didn't do it.

Editor's Note: Want to prove you are the best fantasy player in the country? Win $100,000 at the NBC Sports Fantasy football Championship, with drafts in New York, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Chicago.

Now don't get me wrong, I think the Packers would be best served with a healthy, spirited, happy Brett Favre at QB in 2008. I think he gives the Packers their best chance to reach the Super Bowl this year. But it's obvious that bus passed the minute he allowed Greta Van Susteren to interview him on Fox News this week. He is obviously so mad at the Packer organization that he will never wear the Green and Gold again, and Packer Nation is equally upset with him for the way he's handled this whole situation. The feeling now is STAY RETIRED BRETT.

The easiest course of action before this week would have been to welcome Brett back on June 20th when he called Mike McCarthy and made another run at the Super Bowl. But McCarthy told Brett that he saw how Joe Montana finished his career in Kansas City, and deep down he may have been saying "Brett, let's admit it, you looked old and battered in those two cold weather games against the Bears and Giants. It's best you stay retired."

It's not what Favre wanted to hear and when he felt unwelcome he decided to throw everyone under the bus to get his freedom for 2008. He burned good friend James Campen. He burned Teddy Thompson, which was easy because the stoic GM seems to care for Brett less than he does the cold weather in Wisconsin, and he even burned McCarthy. Packer Nation loves their heroes, but they love the Packers even more and not even Brett Favre is bigger than the organization.

So now what? Well, I predict that the Packers will not welcome him back and will not release him. If he decides to ask for reinstatement, then he has the right to show up in Green Bay and compete for a job. He sounds like he doesn't want to do that and knows it won't help his status in Green Bay any. But the Packers hold all the cards here and the only way to get them to make a move is to ask for reinstatement and show up in Green Bay.

If he does that, the Packers will decide to trade him or Rodgers. Put your money on Favre going in a trade. The Packers would likely try to trade him to an AFC team, but Favre will be adamant about playing on a title contender. Is there an AFC title contender who is just a QB away from the promised land? Not a single one, unless you think Buffalo, Kansas City or Baltimore can turn losing records into playoff spots. Not likely.

In the NFC, the best match is Tampa Bay. Favre would play for Jon Gruden, he would be familiar with that West Coast offense and the Bucs are a top QB away from being able to challenge for a Super Bowl spot. That would be a perfect fit for Favre, but would the Packers trade him to an NFC team? They might, but only if the price was right.

So let's analyze this soap opera from a fantasy perspective. How does Favre's request to return to the NFL affect all of the skill position players involved? First, let's look at the Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers had enough pressure on him before this, but now he's receiving the brunt of the blame for Favre's messy divorce. It's not fair as he's done nothing wrong. If anything, this could rally the fans around him. Honestly, I don't think anything changes with Rodgers or Ryan Grant or Donald Driver or anyone else in this offense. If anything, Greg Jennings has been downgraded slightly because people believe that Rodgers won't throw the long ball as often as Favre did last year. But the wideouts said that Rodgers' arm was stronger in mini-camp than at any point last year and some even said his arm is as strong as Favre's. I don't believe that, but this is obviously his team going forward and we'll see if he can handle the pressure and can stay healthy. Project a season of 3.000+ yards and 18-20 TDs if he can stay healthy for 16 games.

Brett Favre: If Favre somehow gets his wish and plays for another team, he will automatically become a Top 6 QB pick on Draft Day. Right now you'd definitely have to take Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Drew Brees ahead of him. If he were in Green Bay, you'd probably slot him fifth ahead of Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson or Ben Roethlisberger. But if he landed in Tampa Bay or with another title contender, I could see him fitting in either sixth, seventh or eighth here.

But remember one thing about Favre playing outside of Green Bay: He would need to learn a new offense in a hurry, he'd need to get in sync with his new teammates in a hurry, and someone there would have to corral him enough to keep him from trying to do too much with his new team. I think it's a recipe for failure because as good as Favre was last year he also was a product of knowing this offense like the back of his hand, he was more constrained under McCarthy and he was surrounded by plenty of playmakers. Going anywhere else could turn Favre into that 2005 version when he threw 29 INTs.

Packer Nation would gladly accept Favre back for 2008, but it's apparent that Favre has deeper wounds than we ever expected and that isn't going to happen. It's now time to move on for all parties involved. If that involves a trade, then fantasy-league owners should be prepared to realize that Favre will not be the same bargain he was in 2007. It's obvious the best of Brett Favre is behind us, whether you live in Packer Nation or not. So long No. 4, it was fun while it lasted.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

The Rise of the PPR

Tom Kessenich is the event director of the National Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. Kessenich has been the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine since 1999 and prior to that he was an NFL beat writer for a decade. Go to fantasyfootballchampionship.com for more details or call 800-726-9966 ext.
13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

Given my youthful glow and exuberance, people are surprised to learn I first began playing fantasy football in the mid-80s. It's true. Some college friends and I got together and slapped a league together, a league that still exists to this day (although only myself and one of my friends remains from that debut league).

It seems like an eternity ago. So much has happened since then.

Since that time I've seen Sonny Crockett in pastels; Indiana Jones and his father seek the Holy Grail; Michael Jackson morph into one of the aliens Mulder and Scully spent year chasing; Shannon Doherty move from 90210 to a witch's house and Jack Bauer save the world six times in a 24-hour span.

I've also seen Sonny Crockett in a mullet; Indiana Jones looking and Jessica Simpson ... ummm ... well ... I guess you could call it trying to act. But some memories are not worth savoring.

A lot has happened since I first discovered this hobby. When you combine the experience I've gained in that time with my experience as an NFL beat writer, having covered the Packers for nearly a decade during the 90s, I like to think I know a thing or two about the NFL. One thing I know for certain is that for every fantasy football player in the country there's probably a unique league geared toward his or her special desires.

In recent years, we've seen Point-Per-Reception (or PPR) leagues become more and more prevalent in the industry. Many leagues use full PPR scoring for all players, meaning every player who catches a pass receives a full bonus point for their effort.

When we formed the National Fantasy Football Championship five seasons ago, we liked the PPR format but wanted to do what we could to ensure RBs didn't generate even more productivity. So we tweaked the scoring and allowed just .5 point-per-reception for RBs with all other players receiving a full point. In our estimation, that would increase the value of WRs specifically without over-inflating the importance of RBs. With QBs receiving six points per touchdown pass, we believed this would help ensure all three positions were important instead of just one.

As we enter our fifth season of the NFFC , we've certainly seen the results of that scoring decision. While RBs remain a critical component for championship teams, more and more of our owners are targeting WRs early on Draft Day as the foundation of their squads. Given how the new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship uses the same scoring system, I believe we'll see similar strategies employed when that event debuts next month.

Back to the NFFC , the PPR format certainly flexed its muscles last season. Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Terrell Owens all averaged more than 20 points per game in the NFFC last year while another 15 receivers averaged at least 15 points per game.

That type of production has led to more WRs being taken in the early rounds than ever before. Last year, two WRs ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL]) ranked as first-round selections based on their NFFC Average Draft Position while 11 more were selected in the next two rounds.
They were:

Marvin Harrison (ADP of 17)
Terrell Owens (19)
Larry Fitzgerald (23)
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] (25)
Torry Holt (27)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (28)
Andre Johnson (29)
Anquan Boldin (30)
Lee Evans (33)
Javon Walker (34)
Marques Colston (36)

So of the first 42 picks in NFFC drafts last year, 13 (or 31 percent) were wide receivers. Although RBs were still being pursued aggressively, the PPR format employed in the NFFC led to more WRs being taken in the early rounds.

The percentage of WRs being taken in the first three rounds is on the rise in NFFC drafts so far in 2008. According to ADP data on MockDraftCentral.com, 16 WRs (38 percent) are being taken in the opening three rounds of NFFC drafts to date. Of that group three are being taken in the first round:

Randy Moss (ADP of 8)
Reggie Wayne (12)
Terrell Owens (14)

The days of going RB-RB are clearly in decline as PPR formats have resulted in more teams realizing the importance of getting standout receivers in their quests for fantasy championships. That's not surprising when you consider the number of receptions a top WR will snare each week. Last season, for example, six receivers topped 100 receptions. They were:

T.J. Housmandzadeh (112)
Wes Welker (112)
Reggie Wayne (104)
Derrick Mason (103)
Brandon Marshall (102)
Larry Fitzgerald (101)

Five more topped 90 receptions, led by Randy Moss and Marques Colston, who both had 98. That's a healthy number of bonus points for NFFC and NBC owners to snare each week which is why we've seen more owners in our event pursue WRs more aggressively especially in the early rounds.

That's not to say RBs who catch passes don't have value in our scoring system. Even though they do not receive a full point-per-reception, the top receiving backs hold considerable value. Of the Top 5 RBs in NFFC scoring last season, only one ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]) caught fewer than 41 receptions. So RBs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush continue to have strong value in our scoring system.

But with a full point-per-reception being awarded to WRs, that position has generated more importance with each passing year of the NFFC .
So don't be surprised to see more and more WRs being taken in the early rounds in your drafts this year. It's a trend that isn't likely to end anytime soon.

Speaking of the NFFC and NBC events, spots are still available for our 14-team NFFC format and the 12-team NBC format but time will soon be running out. So if you want to secure a spot, don't delay. We will host both events on Saturday, Aug. 30 in Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando. The two events feature a $100,000 grand prize and if you enter both you will be eligible for a $1 million bonus which will be given to the owner who finishes first in both national events this year.
For more information about the event, go to nfc.nbcsports.com. Or you can contact me directly via email (tom.kessenich@fwpubs.com) or by phone (715 445-4612 ext. 13653) and I?ll be happy to answer any questions you might have and get you signed up for one or both of our events.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Top 50 Position Battles: 21-50
The Brett Favre saga is lurching towards a conclusion this weekend. Which is good, because perhaps then people will realize there are 31 other teams out there. Camp has started with a bang, and Rotoworld you covered in our daily news (now hitting 100 posts a day), columns, blog posts, and videos.

Below is the bottom 30 of my top-50 position battles to watch during camp. The top 20 will be posted Monday as the first Daily Dose of the season. Then we'll have columns for you every weekday until Week 1. It is damn good to be back.

***

First, let's define what isn't a position battle. Willie Parker versus Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh is not a position battle. Neither is LenDale White vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] or Ronnie Brown vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]. These are all situations to watch, but these players are not competing for one job. They all will have the significant roles, and the starter is defined. Sadly, training camp and the preseason will barely provide clues as to the carry splits on these teams. We have to wait for Week 1.

We should learn much more about the battles below. Depth charts on these teams are flexible. Playing time and careers are at stake. Plenty of fantasy points are as well.

21. 49ers third receiver: Arnaz Battle vs. Jason Hill vs. Ashley Lelie

Mike Martz's third receiver spot is usually a treasure trove of fantasy value. There are indications he may use two tight ends more this season, but the winner here is draftable. Battle is the favorite; Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce are the starters.

22. Jaguars receivers: Reggie Williams vs. Dennis Northcutt vs. Mike Walker vs. Troy Williamson

With Jerry Porter hurt, the Jacksonville depth chart has opened up. It would be a surprise if Williams doesn't start, but Jack Del Rio has thrown curveballs in the past. Evan Silva called Walker his top prospect in the NFL. Keep an eye on him.

Note: Williams is one of the biggest busts in our online draft guide. Thanks to everyone who has been supporting us in big numbers.

23. Ravens starting quarterback: Troy Smith vs. Kyle Boller vs. Joe Flacco

A rare three-way quarterback battle. Flacco seems unlikely to get the job initially, but his presence limits the fantasy value of the winner. Smith looks like the slight favorite and could be a QB3 in a deeper league.

24. Patriots starting receiver: Jabar Gaffney vs. Chad Jackson

This battle could wind up being overrated. I expect both to get plenty of snaps this season, and I don't expect either player to provide consistent numbers. Gaffney is loved largely for his blocking. Bill Belichick has praised Jackson's development.

25. Rams backup RB: Brian Leonard vs. Antonio Pittman

Pittman reportedly had a big offseason, making him the heavy favorite for [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL] handcuff status.

26. Ravens second receiver: Mark Clayton vs. Demetrius Williams

These two have a chance to emerge as sleepers if Cam Cameron's offense takes hold in Baltimore. I like Clayton's chances much better.

27. Bears starting quarterback: Kyle Orton vs. Rex Grossman

The winner of this battle? America. Patrick Dahl's moles in Chicago believe Orton will get the job. I expect it as well.

28. Dolphins starting quarterback: John Beck vs. Josh McCown

Rookie Chad Henne doesn't have a true chance to start in Week 1, which is probably for the best. Logically, the Dolphins should see what they have in Beck, so he's my favorite. I'll probably rank this winner number 32 out of opening week fantasy options at quarterback.

29. Bears backup running back: Kevin Jones vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]

This might be more accurately described as Jones vs. his knee. He needs to prove he's ready for the season before he can backup Matt Forte.

30. Bears receiver scrum: Brandon Lloyd vs. Devin Hester vs. Marty Booker vs. Mark Bradley vs. Earl Bennett

The only team in the league where the first five spots are wide open. Hester and Booker will stick somewhere in the top four, but everything else is up for grabs. Bradley is the most interesting if he could work his way into a starting job. See #26 before getting too crazy with anyone here.

31. Bills second receiver: James Hardy vs. Josh Reed

The rookie is the favorite, but the Bills offense needs major growth before making either player worth owning.

32. Chargers backup running back: Jacob Hester vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4910"]Marcus Thomas[/URL] vs. Darren Sproles

This could be a phony battle because they may split carries if LT2 gets hurt. Sproles should take passing down work, while Hester is likely to win early down snaps. Thomas is a big underdog. And Tomlinson owners may want to skip drafting his backup.

33. Falcons starting quarterback: Matt Ryan vs. Chris Redman

Redman is likely to get the Week 1 call, but he was out of the league for years. A big preseason could have Ryan starting from day one, which would limit the fantasy upside of Roddy White and company.

34. Titans number two receiver: Justin McCareins vs. the Tennessee Receiver All Stars

McCareins appears locked into a starting role opposite Justin Gage, but he's not good enough to assume the battle is over. Roydell Williams can't get healthy and Biren Ealy looks like a third receiver, so Brandon Jones, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3124"]Mike Williams[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4563"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4256"]Chris Davis[/URL][/URL], Lavelle Hawkins, and Paul Williams are all scrapping for playing time. Reminds me of the old saying, "When you have eight receivers, you really have none."

35. Bucs backup running back: Warrick Dunn vs. Michael Bennett

One senses that Jon Gruden wants to take carries away from Earnest Graham, but the options aren't exciting. Dunn is likely to win, but he's a late-round pick at best.

<!--RW-->36. Cards backup running back: Marcel Shipp vs. J.J. Arrington vs. Tim Hightower

I don't know much about Hightower, but if his NFL career goes anything like his namesake, he's going to win this job. And that would be the only way fantasy leaguers should get interested in this one.

37. Broncos slot receiver: Brandon Stokley vs. Eddie Royal

Royal, a second round pick, will probably replace Stokley in 2009. With Brandon Marshall's suspension looming, both could pick up snaps early in the year.

38. Jets backup running back: Jesse Chatman vs. Musa Smith

Old Rotoworld favorite gets another chance for freedom. Sort of. With Leon Washington around, the winner would probably split carries if Thomas Jones gets hurt.

39. Packers backup running back: Brandon Jackson vs. Deshawn Wynn

In last season's column, the Packers starting job battle between Jackson and Vernand Morency was ranked number four. That's a good reminder that winning a camp battle doesn't mean you keep the job for the year.

40. Bills backup running back: Fred Jackson vs. Dwayne Wright

Jackson is the heavy favorite after a fantastic finish to last season, but he's not exactly John Riggins. Jackson is a worthy handcuff for Marshawn Lynch owners if he secures the job.

41. Browns backup running back: Jason Wright vs. Jerome Harrison

These two would probably split carries if Jamal Lewis got hurt, limiting their value.

42. Bengals third receiver: Antonio Chatman vs. Andre Caldwell vs. Jerome Simpson vs. Marcus Maxwell

The [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] Memorial fantasy roster scholarship competition. We'd avoid the group for this season, though. Tight end Ben Utecht is more likely to provide consistent value while Caldwell and Simpson grow up.

43. Jets TE: Chris Baker vs. Dustin Keller

These two will probably share duties like Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen last season in Chicago. With a weak third receiver in New York, both will get significant snaps.

44. Cowboys third receiver: Miles Austin vs. Sam Hurd

Patrick Crayton looks locked into a starting job. We don't expect Terry Glenn to make a difference this year, and the Cowboys probably don't either.

45. Chiefs second receiver: Devard Darling vs. Jeff Webb vs. Will Franklin vs. Maurice Price

Hide the women and children. Whoever wins the job is going to be the worst starting receiver in the NFL since ? Samie Parker.

46. Bucs backup quarterback: Luke McCown vs. Brian Griese

I'd set the over/under on Jeff Garcia starts this season around 10.5, so this battle matters more than you'd think.

47. Seahawks goal-line running back: T.J. Duckett vs. waiver wire

Does Mike Holmgren have the juice to cut a guy who the front office just gave a $2 million signing bonus to? Probably not, but he can bury him on the bench. The starting Seattle job doesn't make our list because Julius Jones is going to start, with a healthy helping of Maurice Morris involved.

48. Cardinals third receiver: Steve Breaston vs. Jerheme Urban vs. Early Doucet

Lot of odd names here. Urban doesn't seem to have much of a chance, while Breaston is surprisingly the favorite after a strong off-season. The winner becomes an in-season pickup if Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin gets hurt.

49. Browns third receiver: Kevin Kasper vs. Travis Wilson vs. Joe Jurevicius' staph infection

More targets for Kellen Winslow! And more magazine covers for Kasper!

50. Patriots backup quarterback: Matt Cassel vs. Matt Gutierrez

Who gets the call if the end of days arrives in New England? Rookie third-round pick Kevin O'Connell is a dark horse, but I suspect Gutierrez gets the job.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Nine stories to know from camp
Most NFL teams ease into training camp. Bill Belichick conducts full contact practices three times in a row to wake everyone up. That's our approach at Rotoworld, where we're ready to augment our non-stop posts with daily columns. The camp version of the Football Daily Dose will run three times a week through August. If you are reading this on our website, you can sign up for an email version of the Dose on the upper right hand corner of your screen. I'll hand off to Aaron Gleeman once the season starts; think of him as Maurice Jones-Drew to my Fred Taylor.

Our football traffic has more than doubled since training camp has started, so plenty of you know that football season starts in July. For those who have been at the beach or wrapped up in the MLB trading deadline, here's a quick primer on eleven items you need to know so far.

1. Brandon Marshall's suspension is expected to be long

Marshall has endured the mother of all bad offseasons, with a serious injury, poor conditioning reports, and arrests piling up. He was receiving a lot of bad press at this time last year, so I'm not worried about him getting into shape. I am worried that he will get suspended for a good chunk of the season. Early estimates range from four-to-eight games.

We should get the official word from the NFL this week. Expect Marshall to be a top-ten receiver when he plays, but missing four games would knock him out of the top-20 in our wideout projections.

Marshawn Lynch, incidentally, avoided any NFL punishment for his hit-and-run case over the summer. This was expected, but help solidify our top-eight overall ranking.

2 & 3. Marvin Harrison and Andre Johnson are just fine, thank you
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
I covered this in the blog, so won't repeat myself much here. But all the off-season worries about Harrison's knees are put to rest for now. He's practicing every day and looking strong, something he hasn't done in nearly a year. At 36 with legal matters still hanging over his head, Harrison is not without risk. But I challenge anyone to find a fifth-round pick with more upside. His potential is outweighing his risk at that price.

Johnson worried owners with a minor procedure on his knee during the summer. But he's been running routes for weeks and ready to live up to our number two wideout projection.

4. LaMont Jordan is a Patriot

As if Laurence Maroney wasn't unpredictable already. Jordan is a versatile player who can help the Patriots in power running situations and third downs, two of Maroney's weaknesses. Jordan crushes Sammy Morris' value as a sleeper. The Patriots are still expecting a big year from Maroney, but this will make it easier to monitor his workload early in the season. If Maroney gets hurt, expect some form committee between Jordan, Morris, and Kevin Faulk. Great move for the Patriots. Not so good for clarity in fantasy leagues.

5. More committee fun in New York, Seattle, Denver, Tampa?

Ahmad Bradshaw nearly split carries with Brandon Jacobs in the Giants Super Bowl run, and New York continues to rotate the two with the first team in Giants camp. Derrick Ward, coming off a broken leg, is also getting time with the ones when he's practicing. Jacobs is a rare player who can put up fantasy starter numbers on only 15 carries a game. Anything that keeps him healthy is a plus. Bradshaw looks unlikely to be suspended and remains one of Rotoworld's favorite sleepers.

In Seattle, most fantasy heads think that T.J. Duckett will backup Julius Jones. In reality, the Seahawks look headed for a close committee between Jones and Maurice Morris, with Duckett swapping old Falcons stories with coach Jim Mora Jr. on the sidelines. Coach Mike Holmgren called Jones and Morris "interchangeable" starters. Jones should be the lead back, but Morris will have a bigger role than people anticipate.

We know what to expect in Denver: the unexpected. Everyone that drafts Selvin Young in the fifth round should keep in mind that the depth chart at running back could change any day. The coaches and players all admit it.

There is even competition in Tampa, where Earnest Graham is clearly the best option. Jon Gruden says Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett are in the mix.

6. Ronnie's not ready
www.miamidolphins.ws
Ronnie Brown is not fully practicing yet, staying out of contact drills as he recovers from a torn ACL. He may skip the first few preseason games. His development will be something to watch closely, but the Dolphins look ready to ease him into the season. That means more [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL] in our lives, which is always a good thing.

7. We don't want no drama

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] isn't cleared to fully practice yet after ankle surgery, but he's settled his disagreements with the Bengals and continues to be undervalued in drafts. This was the consensus WR1 going into last season and he's coming off his career high in yards, people! It doesn't hurt that Johnson is essentially playing for a new, restructured contract for next offseason.

Javon Walker is like Ocho Cinco in the drama department, but without all the production to back it up. But at least he looks no worse for wear after getting assaulted in Las Vegas. His knee remains a serious concern, but his jaw and eye socket didn't suffer serious damage in the attack.

8. Holdout watch: Ryan Grant and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]

Don't get carried away worrying about holdouts for veteran running backs. They can pick up things quickly when they return. I expect a resolution for both of these players fairly quickly, although Grant's holdout is starting to get more contentious. This becomes an issue if they aren't in camp by late August.

9. Aaron Rodgers is the man
www.greenbaypackers.ws
I could give up a full recap of the Brett Favre saga, but the news will probably change before you read this. While uncertainty reigns, one thing is clear: The Packers are moving forward with Aaron Rodgers. Rank him as if Favre isn't around, because Favre will not be starting for Green Bay this year. Rodgers remains our 16th-ranked quarterback.

Note: Part II of my position battles column will come on Wednesday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Mock Draft Analysis
I participated in an 18-round draft with 13 others in the industry last week. The league awards 4 points for passing touchdowns and 6 for receiving and rushing scores. No points are awarded for receptions.

Owners start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 DEF/ST. We do not use a flex. Here are the first-half results with some commentary. The rest of this mock will be available in our must-have 2008 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

[SIZE=+1]Round One[/SIZE]

1.01. Fanball (Ryan Houston): LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FF Pro Forecast (Bob Harris): [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]
1.03. Sports Grumblings (John Georgopoulos): Brian Westbrook
1.04. Rotoworld (Evan Silva): [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]
1.05. FantasyFootball.com (David Grey/Craig Davis): Marion Barber
1.06. RotoTimes (Rick Hawes): Joseph Addai
1.07. Fantasy Tailgate (Dan Labert): Frank Gore
1.08. Inside the Stats (Ken Maxwell/Seth Davis): Randy Moss
1.09. Monster Draft (Todd Beckstead): Clinton Portis
1.10. FFMastermind (Mike Nazarek): Larry Johnson
1.11. Fantasy Guru (Thomas Simons): Marshawn Lynch
1.12. IPL Sports (John Willette): Ryan Grant
1.13. Athlon/Grogan's (Dan & Kelly Grogan): Terrell Owens
1.14. The Huddle (Phil Gentles): Reggie Wayne


Best Value: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]. I was ecstatic when Jackson fell to me at four. His holdout isn't a concern yet and he'll be highly motivated when he does return. The Rams' offense will be balanced, and I'm betting much more productive under new coordinator Al Saunders with Orlando Pace back healthy. Had I been picking first overall, I would've strongly considered taking Jackson in this format.

Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson. L.J. is a poor bet to rebound because of his offensive line, quarterback, and head-coaching situations. The Chiefs won't threaten secondaries with their passing game and defenses will load up to stop the run. Even if L.J. pulls a Jamal Lewis and gets the step(s) he lost back, he won't have room to operate. He's more of a late second-round pick.

Trends, Etc: Barber went higher here than our Draft Guide recommends. I don't have a problem with it, especially if your league is rather touchdown-heavy like this one. MBIII is easy to fall in love with in Dallas' offense and Felix Jones doesn't scare me. Jones will return kicks and get some change-of-pace work like Leon Washington in New York. That won't be a true timeshare. Aside from L.J., I didn't dislike any picks in this round.

[SIZE=+1]Round Two[/SIZE]

2.01. Reggie Bush
2.02. Jamal Lewis
2.03. Willis McGahee
2.04. Maurice Jones-Drew
2.05. Braylon Edwards
2.06. Tom Brady
2.07. Willie Parker
2.08. Peyton Manning
2.09. Marques Colston
2.10. Laurence Maroney
2.11. Rotoworld: Andre Johnson
2.12. Larry Fitzgerald
2.13. Brandon Marshall
2.14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh


Best Value: Tom Brady. You won't see Brady fall out of the first round in many drafts. This league doesn't weigh passing TDs very heavily, but he's still an incredibly strong value at 20th overall. Even if New England's offense comes back to earth, Brady is a good bet for 36-40 touchdown passes and routine three-score weeks.

Shadiest Pick: Willie Parker. Though he'll likely remain a starter, Parker will become a clear committee back with Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall set to steal all passing-game and goal-line work. The Steelers didn't draft Mendenhall to sit, and Moore is a far more natural pass receiver than Fast Willie. I wouldn't touch FWP before the sixth round, even in a 14-team league.

Trends, Etc: The Marshall pick was made before NFL Network's report that he could be suspended up to eight games. We expect a slight falloff, but Lewis is still being drafted consistently as a borderline RB1. It's high for my taste, as was the Bush pick in a non-PPR setting. All the receivers drafted in this round were rock-solid values.


[SIZE=+1]Round Three[/SIZE]

3.01. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] (CAR)
3.02. Earnest Graham
3.03. Brandon Jacobs
3.04. Rotoworld: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL]
3.05. Torry Holt
3.06. Tony Romo
3.07. Plaxico Burress
3.08. Ronnie Brown
3.09. Edgerrin James
3.10. Michael Turner
3.11. Anquan Boldin
3.12. Santonio Holmes
3.13. Drew Brees
3.14. Wes Welker


Best Value: Drew Brees. Brees may not approach his insane attempts total from 2007, but he'll still throw as often as any quarterback in the league and do more with those tosses now that Jeremy Shockey is in New Orleans. Shockey is an all-around force and will make everyone around him better.

Shadiest Pick: Edgerrin James. This was a shocker, especially with Thomas Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Matt Forte available. James, who turns 30 on August 1, can only get worse than he was last year and will likely see his carries cut. He shouldn't be in the third-round conversation.

Trends, Etc: I don't like Welker much in this non-PPR format. 1,000 yards are doable again, but Welker won't repeat his eight scores and 100 catches doesn't make a difference here. I'm interested to see how many touches Turner will end up with because Atlanta is going to be playing from behind all season and he has 11 career catches. I think Jerious Norwood is a nice sleeper this year as Atlanta's presumptive passing-down specialist.

[SIZE=+1]Round Four[/SIZE]

4.01. Darren McFadden
4.02. Jason Witten
4.03. Jonathan Stewart
4.04. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] (DET)
4.05. Thomas Jones
4.06. Antonio Gates
4.07. Greg Jennings
4.08. Rudi Johnson
4.09. LenDale White
4.10. Calvin Johnson
4.11. Rotoworld: Matt Forte
4.12. Marvin Harrison
4.13. Selvin Young
4.14. Julius Jones


Best Value: Thomas Jones. Jones was the last "safe" RB2 off the board in terms of track record and job security. I realize he's not a game breaker, but no offensive line improved more on paper than the Jets' this offseason, and there will be much more emphasis on the running game in New York. The last time Jones played behind a decent offensive line, he ran for 1,210 yards and 6 scores. And that was in a "committee" with Cedric Benson.

Shadiest Pick: Rudi Johnson. I didn't know anyone still believed in Rudi, but apparently there are some hangers-on. We have Johnson as the RB37; here he was drafted as the RB26. There are several clear-cut backups I'd gamble on before him.

Trends, Etc: I really wanted Carson Palmer here, but the rest of the average to above average RB2s were going quick and I had to take Forte. This was before Kevin Jones' signing, not that I consider Jones a real threat. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will share time this season, with neither particularly likely to top 200 carries. I bet Seattle ends up going pass-heavy again. Also notice no quarterbacks in this round.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Round Five[/SIZE]

5.01. Carson Palmer
5.02. Lee Evans
5.03. Dwayne Bowe
5.04. Rotoworld: Kellen Winslow
5.05. Kevin Smith
5.06. Tony Gonzalez
5.07. Hines Ward
5.08. Roddy White
5.09. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL]
5.10. Donovan McNabb
5.11. Ben Roethlisberger
5.12. Derek Anderson
5.13. Chris Chambers
5.14. Jerricho Cotchery


Best Value: Carson Palmer. Palmer in the fifth round of a 14-team league is absolute robbery, even if it only awards 4 points for passing scores. The Bengals' passing game can take a big step forward with Palmer another year removed from ACL surgery, LT Levi Jones healthy, and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] and T.J. Houshmandzadeh playing for raises. Ben Utecht replacing [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] will work out just fine.

Shadiest Pick: Kevin Smith. I don't think it's easy to be a Kevin Smith fan. His outrageous 2007 carries total (450 in 14 games), lack of NFL-like competition at UCF, and upright running style have me concerned he'll hit the rookie wall by Week 8. And he's no lock to start any games before then. Smith definitely isn't someone I'd bank on as an RB2.

Trends, Etc: Roddy White in the fifth seems a shade early, but I'm not arguing with it. The Falcons' defense is atrocious on paper and they should be throwing to catch up all season. White will be the featured target in coordinator Mike Mularkey's scheme. We've finally reached the "second tier" of quarterbacks after skipping signal callers in round four.

[SIZE=+1]Round Six[/SIZE]

6.01. Matt Hasselbeck
6.02. Fred Taylor
6.03. Santana Moss
6.04. Dallas Clark
6.05. Nate Burleson
6.06. Donald Driver
6.07. DeAngelo Williams
6.08. Joey Galloway
6.09. Laveranues Coles
6.10. Jay Cutler
6.11. Rotoworld: Rashard Mendenhall
6.12. Chris Cooley
6.13. Todd Heap
6.14. Anthony Gonzalez


Best Value: Laveranues Coles. We've touched on how low Coles is going in fantasy drafts a good deal, but he's a quality sixth-round selection in a 14-team format. With his ankle healthy and 17 scores over the past three seasons, you could do way worse as a WR2/3.

Shadiest Pick: DeAngelo Williams. A lot of picks in this round have bust potential (Burleson, Taylor, Galloway), but none more than Williams. There's a reason Carolina took another back 13th overall, and it isn't so Jonathan Stewart can ride the pine. John Fox uses the power run game, and Williams doesn't fit as more than a pace change. I'd be stunned if Williams gets more than 120 carries this year.

Trends, Etc: All the positive reports about Marvin Harrison's health will soon begin dropping Gonzalez's Average Draft Position. I don't see Gonzo as a great gamble this early. Burleson is another reach, but at least he's locked into a starting job. Burleson struggled with Mike Holmgren's offense his first two years in Seattle, but he's intriguing as D.J. Hackett's replacement at split end.

[SIZE=+1]Round Seven[/SIZE]

7.01. Chester Taylor
7.02. Jake Delhomme
7.03. Ahman Green
7.04. Rotoworld: Vincent Jackson
7.05. Bernard Berrian
7.06. Jerry Porter
7.07. Kenny Watson
7.08. Eli Manning
7.09. Bobby Engram
7.10. Marc Bulger
7.11. Reggie Brown
7.12. Vernon Davis
7.13. Felix Jones
7.14.Jeremy Shockey


Best Value: Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a far safer pick than Vernon Davis, Todd Heap, or Dallas Clark, and all three went before him. He'll be New Orleans' No. 2 receiver. When you're the No. 2 receiver on the Saints, your downside is David Patten last year (54 catches, 792 yards), and that's quality production from a fantasy TE. Shockey also presents one heck of a red-zone target, and if Deuce McAllister has a setback, the Saints will have to pass often to score touchdowns.

Shadiest Pick: Jake Delhomme. The Delhomme Hype Machine is on full blast, but the reality is that he has a reconstructed elbow and plays in a run-heavy offense that will always keep his potential down. I wouldn't have a problem making Delhomme my QB2 in the 11th or 12th round, but there are too many factors working against him to a top-11 quarterback.

Trends, Etc: Owners are starting to get a bit desperate for quarterbacks. The guy who drafted Rudi Johnson reaches a bit here for Kenny Watson, but it's what he had to do. Bernard Berrian goes before he should. Coming off a down year, Reggie Brown continues to look like a value pick.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eight[/SIZE]

8.01. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]
8.02. Bryant Johnson
8.03. Derrick Mason
8.04. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]
8.05. Owen Daniels
8.06. Deuce McAllister
8.07. Ben Watson
8.08. David Garrard
8.09. Chris Brown
8.10. Patrick Crayton
8.11. Rotoworld: Matt Schaub
8.12. Jon Kitna
8.13. Javon Walker
8.14. Philip Rivers


Best Value: David Garrard. Garrard's rushing stats and new teammates give him breakout potential, and he's a weapon inside the 20 himself. Garrard threw nine touchdown passes in the Jags' last four games last season and is a virtually surefire top-12 QB ? something tough to find this late.

Shadiest Pick: Javon Walker. This could've been the 12th round and I might've called Walker the "shadiest pick." Deuce McAllister is another guy with bad knees I wouldn't touch. The Raiders beat writers expect Ronald Curry to lead the team in receiving this year, and I couldn't disagree.

Trends, Etc: Rotoworld favorite Matt Schaub is my starting quarterback. We have faith in Schaub because his injuries last year were fluky and the Texans' offensive line should improve under new position coach Alex Gibbs. Until CB Dunta Robinson (knee) returns at mid-season, they may also have to throw often to stay in games, particularly with no reliable or starting-caliber running back on the roster.

[SIZE=+1]Round Nine[/SIZE]

9.01. Justin Fargas
9.02. Sidney Rice
9.03. Darrell Jackson
9.04. Rotoworld: Donte' Stallworth
9.05. Matt Leinart
9.06. Vince Young
9.07. Alge Crumpler
9.08. Aaron Rodgers
9.09. Jason Campbell
9.10. Isaac Bruce
9.11. Sammy Morris
9.12. Drew Bennett
9.13. Jerious Norwood
9.14. Mark Clayton


Best Value: Darrell Jackson. I wouldn't have said this before a report that Jackson is running as a first-team receiver in Denver. Jackson could also be Jay Cutler's go-to option while Brandon Marshall is suspended. I don't necessarily think Jackson should be drafted any higher than this, but he was a fine pick in an offense he knows well and on a team in trouble at wideout.

Shadiest Pick: Matt Leinart. It seems early to draft a guy who might not even start, and surely will be on a short leash. I'm a believer in Leinart long term, but V.Y., Rodgers, and Campbell all would've been safer picks. Job security is a key factor when drafting ninth-round QB2s.

Trends, Etc: The elite QB2s are coming off the board. Owners are also targeting bounce-back candidates (Mark Clayton, Drew Bennett, Young, Crumpler). Sammy Morris' roster spot may be in doubt following the Patriots' addition of LaMont Jordan. I can't see Bill Belichick keeping four tailbacks at final cuts.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Top 20 Position Battles
For today's Dose, we'll look at the top 20 position battles to watch over the next month. #21-50 were posted last week.

First, let's define what isn't a position battle. Willie Parker versus Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh is not a position battle. Neither is LenDale White vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] or Ronnie Brown vs. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]. These are all situations to watch, but these players are not competing for one job. They all will have the significant roles, and the starter is established. Unfortunately, training camp and the preseason will barely provide clues as to the carry splits on these teams. We have to wait for Week 1.

We should learn much more about the battles below. Depth charts on these teams are flexible. Playing time and careers are at stake. So are a few fantasy titles.

1. Denver starting running back: Selvin Young vs. Mike Shanahan's history

Young is clearly the starter for now, but there are questions about his ability to carry the ball 20 times a game and nothing is set in stone in Denver. Fantasy leaguers are hedging their bets, taking him as a sixth-round pick. So far, it doesn't appear that Andre Hall, Ryan Torain, Michael Pittman, and Anthony Aldridge have made a big move up.

2. Panthers starting running back: Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams
www.carolinapanthers.ws
The Panthers didn't draft Stewart thirteenth overall to sit the bench, but he still has to prove himself healthy in camp. Getting established as the clear starter would be huge, because John Fox prefers to ride one back. Stewart is getting overlooked in drafts for someone with top-ten potential. He's been healthy early in camp and impressing in red zone drills.

Editor's Note:</B> Learn out optimistic projections for Stewart in our online draft guide.

3. Raiders starting running back: Justin Fargas vs. Darren McFadden vs. Michael Bush
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Fargas is going four rounds after McFadden in drafts, but he still has a good chance to start in Week 1 and lead the team in carries. Michael Bush has an opportunity to vulture short-yardage work, further muddying the value in Oakland. This team can run block and will be a run-heavy team. If McFadden can climb the depth chart immediately, he'll be a safer top-40 fantasy pick.

4. Texans starting running back: Ahman Green vs. Chris Brown vs. Steve Slaton vs. Chris Taylor vs. Darius Walker

Green remains the favorite, although it's unlikely he and Brown can stay healthy for long at the same time. I've seen Green going in the eleventh round of drafts - as late as a starting running back will ever go. That reflects Fantasy Nation's wise understanding that we'll probably see many starters in Houston this year.

5. Lions starting running back: Kevin Smith vs. Tatum Bell vs. Brian Calhoun
www.detroitlions.ws
Calhoun is a long shot, but he could carve out a third-down role. I've been vocal about my concern about Smith. Both he and Bell made our online draft guide's bust list.

6. Broncos starting receiver: Darrell Jackson vs. Keary Colbert

With Brandon Marshall's suspension looming, both players could start early in the season. Jackson has the early edge when Marshall returns. While I don't love his game (way too many drops and is soft going over the middle), Jackson is in a familiar system and will see targets. He could be undervalued.

7. Panthers starting receiver: Muhsin Muhammad vs. D.J. Hackett
www.carolinapanthers.ws
Playing opposite [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] should be a more advantageous spot than Colbert showed in recent years. No one has stood out in Carolina thus far, and both should get plenty of time in three wideout sets.

8. Colts backup running back: Dominic Rhodes vs. Kenton Keith vs. Mike Hart
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
Don't assume Rhodes gets the job automatically because of his history with the team, although he is the favorite. The Colts will be careful not to overwork Joseph Addai, making the winner a fine fantasy reserve.

9. Bucs second receiver: Antonio Bryant vs. Michael Clayton vs. Ike Hilliard vs. Maurice Stovall
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
This will probably come down to Bryant vs. Clayton. Bryant has the best combination of age and talent on the team and remains one of our favorite sleepers if he can win the job. Early reports have been positive. Bryant is rolling with one of my favorite mottos, "Right now I'm going to undersell you and over-deliver," he says. I'm better at the undersell part.

10. Bengals backup running back: Kenny Watson vs. Chris Perry

Perry is finally healthy, but he's only managed 73 carries since being drafted in 2004. I would not be shocked if Perry wins the camp battle, but Watson wins the war as the team's leading rusher once Perry and Rudi Johnson fall by the wayside.

11. 49ers starting quarterback: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL] vs. Shaun Hill

It sounds like this battle is close thus far, although Smith probably has to struggle badly in the preseason to lose the gig. I drafted Smith as my QB2 in a league where I took Peyton Manning at 3.9. (Let's not get carried away with the knee injury, people.) Since this team will pass so much, there is potential for solid yardage from the winner.

12. Giants backup running back: Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Derrick Ward
www.newyorkgiants.ws
This battle may not fit under my criteria, and it should possibly include Brandon Jacobs. The Giants are splitting first team reps, but Jacobs will wind up starting and enjoying a prominent role. They will protect him by using some form of a committee, likely with Bradshaw in the supporting role. Ward may need an injury in front of him to see regular work.

13. Saints running back: Deuce McAllister vs. his knees

He can be Reggie Bush's tag team partner if healthy, but medical history is stacked against him after microfracture and ACL surgery in the same off-season. Early results from Deuce have been mixed, increasing supersleeper Pierre Thomas' value.

14. Jets quarterback: Kellen Clemens vs. Chad Pennington
www.newyorkjets.ws
Ridiculously early interception numbers from camp: Kellen Clemens 5, Chad Pennington 0. Clemens is going to need strong preseason numbers, but he's fighting an uphill battle. Brett Favre doesn't appear interested in joining this group.

15. Saints second receiver: David Patten vs. Robert Meachem vs. Devery Henderson

Rookie seventh-round pick Adrian Arrington has also made a lot of noise, but he's a long shot. This spot is slightly less valuable with Jeremy Shockey on the team, but there are yards to be claimed on this pass-first offense.

16. Seahawks third receiver: Courtney Taylor vs. Logan Payne vs. Ben Obomanu

With Bobby Engram often playing from the slot, the winner of this battle could get starter-worthy snaps. Taylor entered camp as the slight favorite, but Payne has impressed all offseason, including this week. He's one of Rotoworld's favorite deeeeep sleepers for dynasty leaguers.

17. Eagles backup running back: Correll Buckhalter vs. Lorenzo Booker

Brian Westbrook owners search for a handcuff

18. Chiefs backup running back: Kolby Smith vs. Jamaal Charles
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Charles has rare speed, but Smith held up well in six late season starts. If Larry Johnson breaks down again, Kansas City is well covered. Now they just need some linemen. And a quarterback. And a second receiver.

19. Redskins second receiver: Antwaan Randle El vs. Malcolm Kelly vs. Devin Thomas
www.washingtonredskins.ws
Washington would ideally use Randle El in the slot, with a rookie starting on the outside. Thomas' early injury gives Kelly a leg up, although fantasy leaguers don't need to draft the winner.

20. Brett Favre vs. our attention span
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Can we keep up the pace of Favrewatch 2008? Favre doesn't seem interested in the Bucs or Jets, but he has to play somewhere. It's hard to imagine it will be in Green Bay, especially with the Packers trying to get him to stay away. Favre continues to pine for Minnesota, but the Packers simply can't allow that. There are no easy answers here, just endless updates.

Note: I'm going to be chatting on my blog at 4:30PM Wednesday. Stop on by if you have time to kill.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Top 15 IDP Camp Battles
Gregg Rosenthal delved into the 20 most important skill position competitions on Wednesday. Here I examine the top 15 battles at Individual Defensive Player (IDP) positions.

For IDP newcomers, I wrote a column in our 2008 Rotoworld Fantasy Draft Guide that provides a rundown of each position in a 3-4 and 4-3 defense and how productive players in those roles tend to be. If you're already a subscriber or in the process of becoming one, check it out and let me know if it helps.

The Draft Guide contains rankings of the top 83 linebackers (LBs), 73 defensive linemen (DLs), and 100 defensive backs (DBs). Scott Morrow penned an Undervalued IDPs column and Rosenthal a Rookie Ranks article. As you can see, the guide contains an abundance of worthwhile content.

Getting to know defensive players is a useful way to understand how certain teams' defenses work. It can benefit fantasy leaguers on the other side of the ball as well. Increasing your basic player-by-player knowledge allows you to become a more informed fan and a dominant fantasy owner.

1. Broncos Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Nate Webster, Niko Koutouvides

Denver signed Koutouvides, Lofa Tatupu's old backup in Seattle, to a $7.5 million contract in March and penciled him in as D.J. Williams' replacement inside. That lit an apparent fire under Webster, who's been so impressive in offseason workouts that the race is now dead even. Webster has the advantages of superior athleticism and experience in Denver's scheme, while Koutouvides would likely be more stout versus the run, a weakness for the Broncos last year. Williams posted an AFC-best 141 tackles in the middle in 2007, so it is a hotspot for production.

2. Lions Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Paris Lenon, Jordon Dizon

The incumbent, Lenon opened camp as the clear leader and gained some separation when Dizon held out a few days. Detroit's second-round pick, Dizon has the speed and instincts that make him a strong fit in Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2. However, middle linebacker in that scheme not an easy position to play and Lenon knows what it entails. The loser will likely start at strong-side linebacker, a much less tackle-friendly position. The winner could challenge WLB Ernie Sims for the Lions' tackle lead. There is a chance that Lenon will start in Week 1 and give way to Dizon after a few games.

3. Chiefs Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Donnie Edwards, Napoleon Harris, Pat Thomas

You wouldn't know it by his totals (116 tackles, 2 sacks), but Harris busted as the Chiefs' MIKE in 2007. Imagine how many stops he would've made if he was a good player. Edwards is 35, but can still move and bag ball carriers. Our money is on him ending up as the starter because he is a playmaker and Herm Edwards wants his middle 'backer to create takeaways. But Thomas, a journeyman special teamer, has shockingly taken the early lead. Edwards is currently stationed on the weak side, ahead of slow starting free agent signee Demorrio Williams.

4. Lions Strong Safety

Competitors: Daniel Bullocks, Gerald Alexander, Kalvin Pearson

Bullocks was supposed to have grasped this job by now, but has been extremely slow to recover from the ACL he tore nearly a year ago. He has not practiced yet in camp. Alexander, Detroit's starting free safety last season, is a better cover player but not the ballhawk Bullocks can be. Pearson is a career special teamer. The Lions' front seven is among the league's least talented, so tons of opposing ball carriers should get into their secondary all season. If one can control this job, he could lead the NFL in tackles by a defensive back. There's no frontrunner yet.

5. Browns Right Cornerback

Competitors: Brandon McDonald, Terry Cousin

McDonald showed he can play in spot duty last year and has been with the first team opposite Eric Wright all offseason. But Cousin is a savvy vet and won't give up easily. The Browns were also in the hunt to acquire Fabian Washington on draft weekend (he ultimately went to the rival Ravens), so a trade could still be made (Lito Sheppard, Ashton Youboty?). But for now, McDonald appears to be locked in. A former wide receiver, McDonald has terrific ball skills and is a willing tackler. If he solidifies the position, he'll be a solid DB2/3 target.

6. Jaguars Weak-Side Linebacker

Competitors: Daryl Smith, Justin Durant, Clint Ingram

This battle is really Durant against himself. Ingram is a strong-side player and Smith can play all three positions. Durant is a shade small, but has spectacular athleticism and packs an explosive punch. The second-year linebacker began camp as Jacksonville's starter on the weak side. If he stays there, Ingram will likely be first off the bench with Smith at SAM and Mike Peterson in the middle. Durant could get 100 tackles as a 16-game starter at this position.

7. Buccaneers Left Defensive End

Competitors: Marques Douglas, Kevin Carter, Greg White

At about 300 pounds apiece, Douglas and Carter are the best run players of this group, but White possesses rare pass-rushing and open-field hitting ability. He led all NFL defensive linemen in forced fumbles (7) and recorded eight sacks despite being a rotational piece in 2007. White is also playing for a contract. Carter is currently getting the most first-team reps, but perhaps only because he is an early-down force. Even if White doesn't "win" the competition, he should play the most snaps overall. If White does pass Carter, he'd have top-15 DL potential.

<!--RW-->

8. Falcons Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Tony Taylor, Curtis Lofton

Taylor and Lofton are currently rotating days with the first-string defense. Lofton is far and away the better talent, but Taylor is a hometown kid and former undrafted free agent who knows how to seize an opportunity. Since the Falcons figure to be on defense quite a bit this season, their middle linebacker projects to get lots of playmaking and tackle chances. The smart money is on Lofton winning due to his high draft status (No. 37 overall). Two rookie MIKE 'backers -- San Francisco's Patrick Willis and Carolina's Jon Beason -- posted 140 or more stops last season.

9. Bengals Strong Safety

Competitors: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4723"]Dexter Jackson[/URL], Chinedum Ndukwe

The Bengals listed Jackson as their starter on the preliminary depth chart, but probably only because he's the incumbent. The organization is pulling for Ndukwe, as he is cheaper, younger, and more durable. Jackson has not played 16 games since 2003. Ndukwe also has the edge in pure athleticism, but this one could go down to the wire. Behind a leaky front seven that starts recent street free agent pickup Dhani Jones at middle linebacker, the Bengals' strong safety has enormous potential.

10. Jaguars Strong Safety

Competitors: Gerald Sensabaugh, Brian Williams

The Jags wanted Sensabaugh to capture this job in 2007, but his season ended in Week 2 with a torn labrum. Sensabaugh has proven too injury prone to rely on, so Williams, a sure tackler, converted to strong safety this spring after Drayton Florence signed to replace him at corner. Williams reportedly looks like a natural at the new position. He won't be handed the job, though, and this remains an ongoing competition. The Jags' starter at strong safety in 2007 (Sammy Knight) recorded 93 tackles, good for seventh most among all NFL defensive backs and Williams is a better player than Knight in space.

11. Texans Weak-Side Linebacker

Competitors: Morlon Greenwood, Xavier Adibi

Greenwood has been a staple in Houston's defense since 2005 and annually tops 100 tackles. But he isn't a stout, run-stopping linebacker and rarely causes turnovers. Adibi, the team's fourth-round pick, is a fierce hitter with better size and just as much range. He also projects as a better blitzer than Greenwood and has good hands. Adibi is safely behind Greenwood at this stage, but their spots on the depth chart are subject to switch late in August.

12. Cowboys Right Cornerback

Competitors: Anthony Henry, Pacman Jones, Mike Jenkins

Jenkins was the 25th pick overall in April, but appears the clear underdog here. Henry and Jones are first-rate tacklers with top-notch ball skills. Jones is more of a homerun threat after the pick. Because the Cowboys' offense will remain up tempo and teams will have to throw against them often, their cornerbacks will have plenty of big-play opportunities. If Jones wins, Henry could move to strong safety, a position he already replaces [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] at in Dallas' nickel package. That would make both Henry and Pacman more interesting IDPs.

13. Steelers Right Inside Linebacker

Competitors: Larry Foote, Lawrence Timmons

It wasn't a surprise when Foote ran with the starters on the first day of camp, but there is very little chance that the incumbent starter will be a three-down player in 2008, even if he keeps his first-team role. Timmons is more disruptive and could be extremely dangerous on interior blitzes. At worst, Timmons will force himself into a timeshare next to James Farrior. If Timmons takes the job outright, few 3-4 inside 'backers would have as high a ceiling in big-play leagues.

14. Dolphins Right Outside Linebacker

Competitors: Charlie Anderson, Quentin Moses

This is the position Jason Taylor would've played if he hadn't been traded. It is a pure pass rusher's position. That makes Anderson, the current favorite, an odd fit because he has three career sacks in four seasons. Anderson should be solid in run support, bot Moses offers more upside as a pressure player off the edge and he isn't far behind. The winner here is a sleeper to tally double-digit sacks.

15. Jaguars Right Defensive End

Competitors: Reggie Hayward, Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey

After failing to land Jason Taylor, the Jags sold their souls (a first, two thirds, and a fourth-round pick) to trade up for Harvey. He isn't even signed yet and is losing ground at a rapid pace. Harvey is raw and only had 6.5 sacks in his last year at Florida, making the entire situation a head scratcher. Hayward, coming off a weak four-sack campaign, would probably be replaced by Groves on passing downs if the season began today. If one of these competitors emerges as an every-down end, he'll be worth a DL2/3 pick. But it currently looks like a battle to avoid.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Grant building a tomb?

Most holdouts are overrated. It's even a maxim Rotoworld's guide to training camp. Occasionally, though, a poorly timed holdout by an inexperienced player can allow an emerging backup to impress coaches. That could be happening to Ryan Grant in Green Bay.

2007 second round pick Brandon Jackson has impressed writers and coaches all off-season, getting nearly all the first-team reps. I usually remain skeptical of such puff pieces, especially for someone so disappointing the previous year. Jackson was a bust as a rookie. His training camp last season was a horror show of missed blocks and tentative running. He fell behind every Packer back at one point during the season. A junior eligible draft pick, Jackson admits he was overwhelmed. While he's not as decisive a runner as Grant, his receiving abilities could get him on the field.

Here's a line from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that should scare the cheese out of Grant's keeper league owners, "When Grant returns, Jackson might be entrenched far enough that the two will share the starting position."

While that sounds overdramatic, Jackson could worm his way into the lesser half of a committee. Grant still must prove he can hold up over the course of the season, and he struggled badly in power situations and on screen passes last year. (Thanks to the awesome ProFootballProspectus for that information.) He's not a complete player yet.

Jackson wasn't even on our top-200 board initially because his role was uncertain, but he's climbing the list now and could go higher. Will Grant fall from his number twelve overall perch? A lot depends on when he shows up to camp. It's still early, and a quick resolution would help solidify Grant's spot. The longer he stays out, though, the better chance Jackson has to steal his touches.

While the rest of the world focuses on another Packer with an uncertain future, here are some other notes from around training camp ?

The NFL announced Thursday that [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]'s indefinite suspension was, well, definite. It will only last four games and he's free to sign with another team. If Adam "don't call me Pacman" Jones can get another job, so can Henry. In fact, he'd make a lot of sense as Pacman's teammate.

Editor's Note: Check out where all the Cowboys rank as Tiffany Simons talks to Tony Romo in our Fantasy Fix preview. </I>

Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants, on the other hand, will not be suspended by the league for serving a month in jail this summer because of his parole. It's clear that Bradshaw will be counted on for a big role this season, and he remains one of Rotoworld's favorite undervalued picks. A lot of owners see a scat-back with a lucky playoff run. We see one of the most talented young runners in the league playing behind an excellent offensive line. He's going to get enough touches to help you. Meanwhile, we wait for official word on Brandon Marshall's punishment. Expect a decision shortly.

Don't call us, we'll call you. That's basically what the Titans told Byron Leftwich after meeting with him Thursday. He is only going to join the team if Vince Young or Kerry Collins get hurt

Notes: Anquan Boldin needed an MRI for his balky hamstring. It's not a huge concern, but also not a great sign for someone who often struggles with nagging injuries. ? Ryan Torain is getting more snaps with the first team in Broncos camp. With Michael Pittman playing fullback, don't be shocked to see Torain as the lesser half of a committee with Selvin Young early this season. ? The Titans may have ended [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3124"]Mike Williams[/URL]' career by cutting him Thursday. But Mel Kiper still thinks the nine teams that passed on him were idiots.

Devery Henderson was already on the roster bubble, so his latest injury could seal his fate. With Robert Meachem and Adrian Arrington playing well, the Saints don't need Henderson. They can find someone else to run really fast in a straight line and drop passes. ? The Falcons quarterback battle is wide open. Not that you were considering drafting Chris Redman, but Matt Ryan starting from day one would hurt Roddy White. ? Handcuff updates: Rookie Tim Hightower has a chance to back up Edgerrin James, while Tony Hunt looks like the odd man out in Philadelphia. Lorenzo Booker has impressed and should pass Correll Buckhalter on the depth chart.

Reggie Williams' recovery from knee surgery doesn't have a timeline, which is never a good sign. He was barely draftable on Rotoworld's board before the injury. ? The Texans want to form a committee of Ahman Green and Chris Brown, but Brown's nagging injuries are damaging his chances. He needs to get back on the field. ? Finally, an IDP sleeper alert. Forget Jaguar Pat Thomas is currently Kansas City's starting middle linebacker. That may not last, but you've been warned.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

As the Favre Turns
Way back in the dark ages of July, Aaron Rodgers was one of my favorite value picks at quarterback. Those days are over. Brett Favre is back with the Packers, and some clarity is finally emerging in Green Bay. We think.

Sure, a trade is still possible. Perhaps Favre will change his mind and re-retire, then un-retire again, and then Ted Thompson's head will explode, making Lambeau field too slippery to play on. Barring all that, the only reasonable assumption is that Brett Favre will be starting in Minneapolis on September 8. For the Packers. www.greenbaypackers.ws

[SIZE=+1]Where Favre Fits[/SIZE]

Ideally, fantasy drafts are held in late August and early September. By then, the Packers starting quarterback should officially be announced. This story isn't ending anytime soon, but by then fences can be mended, limiting the amount of uncertainty inherent in drafting Favre.

That doesn't mean owners should expect Favre to repeat his 2007 numbers. In the two seasons before last year's revival, Favre threw 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions. His weapons and familiarity with Mike McCarthy's offense is undoubtedly better now, but he's also turning 39 years old and missed most of the off-season.

Favre is set up for relative success in McCarthy's scheme, but he'll face some brand new risks. For the first time ever, Favre could have slight job security questions. If the Packers struggle for any reason, it's conceivable that Favre could be benched. While that's unlikely, it's fair to say that the organization's reverence for Favre's "legacy" has waned in recent weeks.

Favre no longer belongs in the discussion of the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy and reality. Assuming he gets to Week 1 as the starter, we'd slot him as our twelth-ranked quarterback, behind guys like David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck, but ahead of Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Vince Young. He's a borderline QB1.

Editor's Note: See Favre's new rank and projection in Rotoworld's draft guide.

As Favre knows, you have to start every season back at the bottom of the mountain. It was likely one of the reasons he decided to give up the game in March. And as many aging quarterbacks before him have found, Favre may find it difficult to reach such great heights again.

[SIZE=+1]Mr. Rodgers' New 'Hood: Waiver Wire?[/SIZE]

Aaron Rodgers has all the tools to be successful once he plays. He also has a tool blocking his path to get on the field. It would be an upset if Brett Favre is the backup in Week 1. It would be an even greater upset for Rodgers to keep the starting job all season, even if he won the quarterback competition in camp. Until Favre is off the roster, Rodgers is a last-round flier in deep leagues. At best. He's Kurt Warner without the history of production; an interesting backup who remains second fiddle to a newsmaking teammate.

[SIZE=+1]Affect on the rest of the Packers[/SIZE]

Don't get carried away projecting huge jumps for the Green Bay receivers if Favre wins the starting job. His return is good news for old buddies Donald Driver and Donald Lee, but we already projected Green Bay to be a fine passing offense. We'll give some of the receivers modest bumps, but that's primarily because the chances of Brian Brohm playing for the Packers this season are vanishing.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Nine Fantasy Draft Trends
Each draft season has defining features. Here are nine trends from this year's early drafts, using Average Draft Position (ADP) information.

Note: This column is an updated version of one in our online draft guide. If this is the type of content you enjoy, check out all our rankings, projections, tiers, cheat sheets, and columns.

[SIZE=+1]1. The Blotter Boys [/SIZE]

Three wideouts who have bathed in hot water this offseason are now flashpoints for 2008 drafts: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL], Brandon Marshall, and Marvin Harrison. Smith was drafted as an early-third round pick before his recent two game suspension. It's too early to know how that news plus trade rumors will change his ADP, but it doesn't change Rotoworld's ranking much. Smith fell out of the top tier of wideouts, but he's still ranked as a third-round value ahead of players like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin. Two fantasy starts from a reserve wideout + [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] still equals elite production. Don't let him slip too far.

Brandon Marshall escaped a worst-case scenario when the NFL Network announced he will be suspended only two games if he undergoes counseling. Recent estimates were as high as 4-8 games. Marshall has also been slipping in drafts, but you aren't going to find a more talented player after the first three rounds.

Marvin Harrison's legal troubles plus his knee injuries caused his stock to plummet in mid-summer drafts, but most of those concerns are fading away. He has practiced well at training camp and we haven't heard a peep about his gun troubles in months. While he's 36, Harrison scored at least ten times for eight straight seasons before last year. I'd bet a fourth or fifth round pick he can score eight this year. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Even [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] continues to fall deep into the third round because of all the hot air he blew this summer. Many fantasy owners are afraid to gamble on players with "character" problems, but these guys won't change your locker room. We'll take talent and a little anxiety at the right price any day.

[SIZE=+1]2. The Brady Effect [/SIZE]

Owners must decide how high they are willing to take a quarterback, specifically the one that threw 50 touchdown passes last season. Early numbers suggest most owners are comfortable grabbing Brady after the top five running backs. Rotoworld has Brady slightly lower because of his previous career stats (season high was 28 touchdowns), and the depth at quarterback.

Your league scoring system makes a huge difference with Brady. He makes a lot more sense in the top five if you get six points per passing touchdown.

The addendum to the Brady Effect is the Moss Effect. Like Brady, Moss was taken in the fourth round a year ago. Now he will be taken earlier than any receiver in years. Owners must decide if he's worth more than a first-round running back. We have Moss ranked higher than Brady.

[SIZE=+1]3. The Second Round Dilemma[/SIZE]

2007 was a huge year in the NFL for passing games and it is reflected early in drafts. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo join Tom Brady as quarterbacks taken in the top two rounds. Manning is usually by himself.

Ten wide receivers are getting taken in the top-30 picks. Only eight were last season. Owners must decide in the second and third round whether to grab surer bets at quarterback and wide receiver or pick up a risky running back before they run out.

Rotoworld likes taking a receiver early far more than a quarterback. We give nine receivers a second round grade, with only Willis McGahee breaking up our "run" of tightly bunched WR1s in the second round. Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Johnson sneak into the end of our second round. Every draft is different, but it's a good year to go RB-WR-WR at the top of drafts depending on who falls to you. We see quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Drew Brees, and Carson Palmer as picks after the first three rounds.

Note: Compete with the best for a $100,000 prize at the NBC Sports National Football Championship. And chat on their message boards with me Tuesday at 2PM.

[SIZE=+1]4. Mid-Round Starting Running Backs[/SIZE]

The rise of the passing game and the proliferation of running back committees are pushing starting running backs further down the draft board. Thomas Jones and LenDale White aren't sexy picks, but they are decent bets to hit 300 touches. They aren't going in the top-50 picks.

Matt Forte, Selvin Young, Jonathan Stewart, Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, and Justin Fargas are likely starting running backs that are falling. There will be quality RB2s and RB3s available in the middle rounds who get touches. That isn't usually the case. We'd take them over likely committee partners such as Willie Parker in the top-30 picks. This is a great year to get two receivers early.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]5. The Big Three Tight Ends[/SIZE]

As a group, tight ends reached new levels of dominance in 2007. Six topped 125 fantasy points for the first time ever. They weren't just good for their position; they produced like WR2s.

That dominance is showing up in 2008 drafts, although not as dramatically as I imagined. Drafters are taking Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Kellen Winslow in the top-50 picks, but the starting point (pick 42) isn't that high. Three more are taken between picks 60-69. www.clevelandbrowns.ws

Rotoworld agrees with conventional wisdom that the big three at tight end are heads, shoulders, and hands above the rest. It makes sense: the tight ends should go at the back of the quality WR2s. Since position scarcity devalues tight end somewhat, we'd take Santonio Holmes over Witten. We'd rather have one of the big three in round four than anyone else in round six. The gap is large.

[SIZE=+1]6. Great late tight end value [/SIZE]

While the big three are tempting, the unprecedented depth at tight end is making later-round values enticing. Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, and Jeremy Shockey are relatively safe every-week plays that often fall out of the first eight rounds! Owen Daniels, Heath Miller, and Tony Scheffler are rising stars that cost even less. Basically we are going early or late with tight end picks this year, not in the middle. With twelve quality starting options at tight end, there is no need to rush.

A fundamental mistake new fantasy players make is failing to understand position scarcity. Each fantasy team only needs one tight end, and there are plenty to go around.

[SIZE=+1]7. Weak class of QB2s [/SIZE]

Running back isn't the only position with great uncertainty this year. There are more quarterback battles than usual, and that creates a shaky QB2 class. Matt Leinart has potential in Arizona, but he may not hold off Kurt Warner. Jake Delhomme is a popular bounce back candidate, but no one knows how he'll respond from elbow surgery.

Philip Rivers, Jeff Garcia, Jon Kitna, and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL] are other veterans facing injury or job-related questions. We don't know who will start for the Jets, Ravens, Bears, Falcons, and Dolphins. Throw in untested starters like Trent Edwards, Brodie Croyle, Tarvaris Jackson, and JaMarcus Russell and there is a shortage of passable QB2s. www.oaklandraiders.ws

We see a large drop-off after our 16th-ranked quarterback. That could be Aaron Rodgers or Marc Bulger, depending on how the Brett Favre situation plays out. Either way, grabbing two quarterbacks in the top-16, especially if you skip one of the top five, will serve owners well. This increases the value of players like David Garrard, Vince Young, and Matt Schaub. It's worth reaching for the QB2 you want.

[SIZE=+1]8. Busts: The Year After[/SIZE]

Owners are showing a willingness to take out last year's trash. Many of last year's biggest busts are being taken at expensive prices. This includes Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Rudi Johnson, Hines Ward, Lee Evans, Marvin Harrison, Javon Walker, Marc Bulger, and Ahman Green,

Owners must decide how big a rebound they expect on a case-by-case basis. (Our projections will tell you what we think.) For the most part, we don't think these players will rebound as much as the rest of Fantasy Nation. Harrison and Evans are the biggest exceptions.

[SIZE=+1]9. No Rookie Wideouts[/SIZE]

31 NFL teams passed on taking a wide receiver in the first round, and fantasy leaguers don't want them in the first 14 rounds. James Hardy is going as the first rookie receiver off the board, at pick 149, but he's not even guaranteed to start on a poor passing attack. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are hurt in Washington. Perhaps a rookie wideout will emerge later in the season, but they aren't worth wasting a pick on.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Post-Hype All Stars
When Rotoworld started in 1999, fantasy hype barely existed. There weren't enough websites and magazines, much less television coverage, to create buzz around certain players. Now it's hard to avoid all the hype. One remedy: look for post-hype players.

This is the third annual list of Post-Hype All Stars. They are last year's cool kids. They are sleepers that slipped into comas, but are showing signs of life. I detailed my criteria for Post-Hypeness a few years back. We're targeting four qualities: elite skills, opportunity, and value, with a dose of youth sprinkled in. Established superstars don't make the cut.

The key is value. Take a hard look at why a player didn't live up to expectations. If Fantasy Nation's frustrated perception of the player overly knocks value, then he might be a Post Hype All Star.

Last season's list had some big hits (Ben Roethlisberger, Ronnie Brown, Jason Witten, LenDale White, and Matt Hasselbeck), and it's share of misses (Troy Williamson and Byron Leftwich anyone?). Let's see who makes the cut this season ?

[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Vince Young, Titans[/SIZE]
www.tennesseetitans.ws
Second-year quarterbacks aren't supposed to get taken as a high level fantasy starter, but Vince Young's rookie season broke all the rules. After crashing down to Earth, he's no longer going in the top 125 picks. His true value lies in the middle, making him an excellent target as a QB2 pick.

No other quarterback will bring the rushing value that Young does. His legs are healthier than last season, and the rushing yards stabilize his weekly output. He only needs modest improvements in the passing game, and new coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's offense plans to go vertical more often. Young has a far higher ceiling than quarterbacks going in front of him like Jake Delhomme and Philip Rivers.

Note:See where Young is ranked in our online draft guide

[SIZE=+1]Matt Leinart, Cardinals[/SIZE]
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Rotoworld pegged Leinart as a bust last season, and his lackluster work habits are troubling for a young quarterback. Still, no other late-round pick is throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. After going in the eighth round last year, Leinart is now slipping to the twelth.

No matter what Ken Whisenhunt says, this will be a pass first offense. Leinart doesn't have ideal job security, but he's the perfect QB2 if you draft a top-shelf quarterback. If Leinart lives up to his potential, you can flip him for help at another position.

Honorable Mention:[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL]</B>

[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Reggie Bush, Saints[/SIZE]

The poster boy for Post-Hype, 2008. Frankly, I'm torn about Bush. I have seen very little watching almost all of his games to indicate he's a special talent. With that said, he's put up useful production, especially in points per reception (PPR) leagues because he gets the ball so much. He is certainly motivated to get his career on track and worked out with the team far more this summer.

Even the ADP data can't agree on Bush. Some indicate he's going in the late second round, some say the late third. He was a consensus top-ten pick last season. He won't live up to that while splitting carries, but Bush's anti-hype should work in his favor. PPR owners should not overlook him in the second round.

Note: Bush is an intriguing pick in the scoring system used by The NBC Sports Fantasy Championship. Can you take home the $100,000

[SIZE=+1]Brandon Jacobs, Giants[/SIZE]
www.newyorkgiants.ws
Yes, much of Jacobs' hype last season was coming from Rotoworld. And yes, we received many an angry emails when Jacobs left a game early. But look beneath the numbers and you'll find that Jacobs was a difference maker, despite the injuries.

In our second magazine, Matt Ball used a stat called "Stud Factor" to determine what players provided consistent advantages for owners. Jacobs only played 11 games, but he finished among the top 32 backs in all eleven. He cracked the top ten backs in six of those games. Jacobs is slipping to the end of the third round in most drafts, but he still has the biggest top-five potential among the RB2 group.

[SIZE=+1]Brandon Jackson, Packers[/SIZE]
www.greenbaypackers.ws
It's all about expectations. As a potential starter last year, Jackson shrunk under the pressure and was a huge bust. As a handcuff for Ryan Grant owners this season that is often going undrafted, Jackson has plenty of bounce back potential at a cheap price.

Honorable Mention: Frank Gore, Laurence Maroney, Jerious Norwood

[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Lee Evans, Bills[/SIZE]
www.buffalobills.ws
2007 was supposed to be the year Lee Evans turned from excellent to elite. Instead he turned into a poor man's Bernard Berrian. While his third round grade from last season looks wildly optimistic in hindsight, his chances for a rebound look strong. Trent Edwards showed signs of being a capable starter, and should improve in year two. Evans also gets tasty non-conference matchups against the NFC West. That makes his current sixth-round ADP a fine value.

[SIZE=+1]Mark Clayton, Ravens[/SIZE]
www.baltimoreravens.ws
Clayton's third year "leap" was off a cliff. He was taken in the seventh round based on a strong sophomore season, but got buried in an avalanche of hamstring injuries and six-yard passes to Derrick Mason. The quarterback situation remains murky, lowering Clayton's ceiling, but he's very talented for a player who is going in the fourteenth round.

[SIZE=+1]Vincent Jackson, Chargers[/SIZE]
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Here's what I wrote in our sleeper list in the draft guide: Now that he's off most sleeper lists, Jackson is ready to emerge. If Antonio Gates struggles whatsoever, Jackson will pick up the catches over the middle, like he did during the three playoff games that totaled 300 yards and three scores.

Jackson is going more than 30 spots later than he did a year ago, but now has important experience as a starter in Norv Turner's system.

[SIZE=+1]Drew Bennett, Rams[/SIZE]

For some reason, owners expected big production from Bennett when he was the third receiver in St. Louis. Now they expect virtually no production when he's a starter that will see lots of targets. The truth, as usual, is in the middle. So is the fantasy value.

[SIZE=+1]Reggie Brown, Eagles[/SIZE]

Going into last season, Brown was taken in the fifth round, while teammate [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL] went in the tenth. Now the two have completely flip-flopped. Brown won't ever be a consistent WR2 in fantasy leagues, but he's talented enough to out-produce his ADP. The Eagles passing attack improved as last season wore on, and should improve in the red zone. If history is any indication, Philly's production at receiver will balance out.

Honorable Mention: D.J. Hackett, Brandon Jones, Patrick Crayton

[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Vernon Davis, 49ers[/SIZE]

Davis defines hype: His insane combine numbers and scary Under Armour commercials sent fans into a frenzy. While it's clear Davis reads some of his own clippings, perhaps at the expense of his playbook, Fantasy Nation has cooled on the kid. He's going nearly 20 spots lower in drafts than last year despite getting Mike Martz on his side. This team will throw more often and with more success, however relative. Davis should finally be worth his draft slot.

[SIZE=+1]Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars[/SIZE]
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
It was hard to find many post-hype candidates at tight end because so few are coming off disappointing seasons. Ben Watson fits the qualifications, but we don't believe he'll ever be a consistent option. Marcedes Lewis has a better shot. He's worth more in PPR leagues because he doesn't make plays after the catch, but he could grab 60 passes as a waiver pickup.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

From Green Bay to Gang Green
Some people consider Brett Favre the greatest quarterback in NFL history. But he's no longer even the best fantasy quarterback that plays in his home stadium. Favre should help the Jets' playoff-ready roster win, but fantasy owners expecting Favre to put up top-10 quarterback numbers will be disappointed. Favre is turning 39 years old in October, and the decline that we saw between 2005-2006 is likely to show up again in Gotham.

Let's look at all the differences between Green Bay and New York to see why his numbers should decline.

[SIZE=+1]System[/SIZE]

This is the biggest reason. Favre has played in a West Coast style offense since he worked under Mike Holmgren. Now he must learn Brian Schottenheimer's versatile and complex scheme over the next four weeks. The Jets have been a run-heavy team the last two years. ProFootball Prospectus points out that they were the third slowest paced offense in the league last season. The Jets will get more aggressive by tailoring the offense to Favre's skills, but the offensive line is still built to maul with Alan Faneca, not pass protect. The Jets will be more balanced than the Packers.

Favre propped up his stats in 2005-2006 by leading the league in pass attempts both seasons. That will not happen in New York, who won't get as pass-wacky as Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.

To see where Favre ranks on Rotoworld's Top 200, check out our online draft guide.http://www.rotoworld.com/premium/draftguide/football/top200draft_page.asp

[SIZE=+1]Talent[/SIZE]

Favre has a terrific of starting receivers in New York with Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. My projections for both Jets receivers were already optimistic, and they will inch up with the arrival of Favre. Cotchery is like a tougher Greg Jennings, and Favre should help allow him to make great plays after the catch. He's a sneaky mid-round WR2 pick, and Coles isn't far behind. There are some concerns about his Coles' nagging injuries, but he's only 31 and caught at least 70 passes for five straight seasons before last year. www.newyorkjets.ws

Despite the solid starters, the Jets receiver crew is still a downgrade from Green Bay. Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson comprise one of the deepest receiver groups in the league. The Jets have no depth: Chansi Stuckey, with zero career receptions, is their third receiver. The tight end groups on both are both solid, but a wash. (Chris Baker and Dustin Keller should see their numbers rise in New York, but may cancel each other out in fantasy leagues.)

I'd still take the Packers offensive line over the Jets. Continuity is one of the keys to building a great line, and the Jets are trying to make their line with pricey free agent signings. That usually doesn't work, and the right side of New York's line looks especially shaky.

[SIZE=+1]Time[/SIZE]

Favre doesn't have much time to learn the Jets' system and get to know his teammates' strengths and weaknesses. He is running out of time to get into football shape after missing an entire offseason. And, of course, there is Father Time. Favre's magical season at 38 was truly rare, but repeating those excellent numbers on a new team at 39 is unheard of.

[SIZE=+1]Where Favre Ranks[/SIZE]

I sprinkled some magic Favre dust on his new projections available in our online draft, and he still only came out as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback. The Jets were given more pass attempts than years past. Favre's yards-per-attempt and touchdown numbers were made closer to his career norms, rather than the ugly numbers he put up between 2005-2006. It all added up to 3,605 yards, 23 scores, and eighteen touchdowns. That was good enough to rank him right below Marc Bulger, and one spot ahead of old friend Aaron Rodgers. Expect Favre to get taken earlier than that in most drafts, and don't expect many Rotoworld loyalists to own him. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Before taking the plunge on Favre, remember what your thoughts about him in your draft room last year. Remember the 38 touchdowns to 47 interceptions he threw in the two years prior. Finally, remember that this isn't baseball, where you can change teams and expect similar statistics. Changing teams in the NFL is hard at any age, even for a legend. No amount of fawning media coverage about Favre playing the game like a kid will change that.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Running with the Ones
This was depth chart week in the NFL. Though many teams ranked players in order of seniority (and in some cases even alphabetically), coaching staffs at least gave us a small glimpse of what they're thinking. Some surprises included Ronald Curry and Drew Carter as "co-starters" in Oakland, Eddie Royal as Denver's direct backup for Brandon Marshall, and Jackie Battle ahead of Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles at tailback in Kansas City. kansascitychiefs.ws

For roughly the next month (the season opens on Thursday, September 4 when the Giants host the Redskins), I'll update key skill position battles around the league. Gregg Rosenthal already previewed 50. His top 20 can be found here. Camp battle previews 21-50 are here.

Now we examine 12 key competitions that have begun to take shape, but still must be tracked over the next four weeks.

Giants No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns
www.newyorkgiants.ws
If you've bought and read the 2008 Rotoworld Draft Guide, you already know the Giants face the toughest schedule for running backs in the league. With a committee potentially on the horizon, any one back here could struggle to maintain consistent week-to-week production. But the Giants will score touchdowns because their offense is explosive and Steve Spagnuolo's pressure-heavy defense will keep chances coming. The top three backs have shared first-team reps so far in camp and the Giants say they'll ride the "hot hand," but Jacobs is their best early-down option because at 6'4/264 with unusual speed, he is capable of pounding defenses before the shiftier, quicker Bradshaw capitalizes as a change of pace. Ward is a poor man's Jacobs with better hands, but has a role waiting if injuries strike. Droughns could be cut.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Brandon Jacobs

Bears No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Matt Forte/Kevin Jones/[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]/Garrett Wolfe
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Lovie Smith is an old school coach who always requires rookies to earn their jobs, but he's made an exception with Forte. Chicago listed its second-round draft choice first on the initial training camp depth chart, proving just how impressive Forte has been. Jones (knee) has yet to practice since joining the club on a contract for the minimum, leaving Peterson as Forte's primary backup and Wolfe third string. Jones may start the season on PUP, which would cost him the first six games and make him undraftable in 12-team leagues. Forte has emerged as the clear frontrunner without a viable handcuff. He should lead all rookies in carries this season.

Current Leader: Matt Forte
Projected Week 1 Winner: Matt Forte

Lions No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Tatum Bell/Kevin Smith/Brian Calhoun
www.detroitlions.ws
It hasn't been reported much, but Bell missed a sizable chunk of OTAs and early training camp for "personal reasons." He's present now and running with the starters, but Smith has also seen first-team action and appears to be nipping at Bell's heels. While he isn't a good bet to hold up after taking 450 carries in 14 games as a college junior, Smith is already ahead of Calhoun and figures to be heavily involved early in the year, even if Bell takes the field first. Calhoun is a third-stringer at the moment, but the best natural pass catcher of the three with the most special teams experience. He's likely headed for the passing-down role with a Smith-Calhoun committee possible by midseason, assuming either is still healthy by then.

Current Leader: Tatum Bell
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kevin Smith

Broncos No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Keary Colbert/Darrell Jackson/Eddie Royal

Keep in mind that this could actually be the Broncos' No. 1 receiver while Brandon Marshall is suspended, although TE Tony Scheffler should be the main beneficiary of Marshall's absence. Jackson currently tops the depth chart, with Colbert behind him and Royal second at Marshall's position. If the season began today, Royal and Jackson would probably comprise the first team with Brandon Stokley in the slot. Colbert is the best run blocker of the group and could rotate in outside, but his inability to get open will likely hurt him when the final depth chart is set and playing time is decided.

Current Leader: Darrell Jackson
Projected Week 1 Winner: Darrell Jackson

Bears No. 1 Receiver
Competitors: Devin Hester/Marty Booker/Brandon Lloyd/Earl Bennett

We'd bet on Greg Olsen finishing as Chicago's leading receiver, but the favorite here by the end of camp will be worth a flier. Mark Bradley would've been our pick had he stayed healthy, but Bradley has been limping on the practice field and running third string after May knee surgery. He's in danger of missing the cut. While the Bears put "co-starters" at each receiver position on their preliminary depth chart, Hester and Lloyd are the favorites to start in Week 1. The Bears may use a timeshare either way, but Booker runs the best routes and has the best recent production, so we'd bet on him seeing the most targets on opening day, even if it's from the slot.

Current Leader: Devin Hester/Brandon Lloyd
Projected Week 1 Winner: Marty Booker

<!--RW-->

Broncos No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Michael Pittman/Andre Hall/Ryan Torain/Anthony Alridge

With Pittman switched to fullback, a path was cleared for Torain to grab the second spot behind Selvin Young and perhaps make a run at the starting job. But a broken elbow will shelve him for at least the first two weeks of the regular season. The results of an MRI could reveal even more damage and force Denver to place Torain on season-ending injured reserve. Pittman has returned to tailback, but Hall stands second on the depth chart and Alridge, a speedy scatback who surprisingly went undrafted after a nice senior season at Houston, is threatening for spot duty. Like Mike Bell last year, Pittman didn't show enough as a ball carrier for Mike Shanahan to want him there originally, so don't count on him having a big role. It's Hall's job to lose and Alridge's to win. Expect in-season change, but Hall to be second when the season opens.

Current Leader: Andre Hall
Projected Week 1 Winner: Andre Hall

Bengals No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Kenny Watson/Chris Perry/DeDe Dorsey

Watson missed much of the spring with an undisclosed injury, but he's back and virtually entrenched as Rudi Johnson's backup. After a lost season, Johnson is again experiencing hamstring woes and has an uncertain return. Perry should be healthy by now, but he's been durable enough to carry the ball just 73 times in his four-year career and probably won't stay that way. Dorsey is the most explosive runner in this backfield, but just returned from injury himself. He and Perry may be in direct competition for a roster spot. While Perry figures to hang around if he doesn't break down this preseason, he can't do what Watson did in 2007; shoulder a heavy weekly workload. Look for Watson to open the season as Rudi's complement and the Bengals' third-down back, and make several starts during the year.

Current Leader: Kenny Watson
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kenny Watson

Dolphins No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: Josh McCown/John Beck/Chad Henne

McCown topped what coach Tony Sparano admitted was a seniority-based opening depth chart and has predictably been inconsistent in camp. While his numerous career starts are something of an advantage, McCown just isn't starting-caliber and Miami is rebuilding. If Beck had done anything to justify it in practice, he'd be the favorite to start in Week 1. But he's been the worst of all three, and with Henne gaining steam, the battle is wide open. Henne generally isn't even a great practice player, but if he keeps up his poise in preseason games, the Dolphins probably won't delay his rise. Their line is big with potential, Henne held up to a ton of hits at Michigan, and he has the biggest arm to connect with speedy wideouts Derek Hagan and Ted Ginn Jr.

Current Leader: Josh McCown
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chad Henne

Jets No. 1 Tight End
Competitors: Chris Baker/Dustin Keller/Bubba Franks

Franks is dropping balls in practice left and right and hasn't been much more than a blocker in years. Old pal Brett Favre's addition may help his chances of making the club, but Franks isn't a true threat to start. Baker was listed atop the Jets' first depth chart, though it may have been in alphabetical order, as Franks was second, Keller was third, and Jason Pociask was behind them. Despite Baker's contract dispute and Keller's impressive camp, Baker will likely be the Jets' starter because he can block and catch. At 6'2/239, Keller might be able to pick up a blitzing free safety or corner, but he won't move any linemen. Keller will play from the slot when coordinator Brian Schottenheimer runs his spread looks, but he will not be a starter as a rookie.

Current Leader: Chris Baker
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Baker

Chiefs No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Devard Darling/Will Franklin/Jeff Webb/Maurice Price

Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe are really Kansas City's top two receivers, but the winner here could wind up with a solid number of deep threat targets. Webb is the most established, but the Chiefs realize his ceiling is the lowest and don't want him as more than a fourth option. Franklin and Price are vying for third receiver/slot duties at the moment, with Franklin leading. Franklin is the ideal outside complement to Bowe because he can burn, a skill that wouldn't be capitalized on as an inside receiver. Darling can run too, but he's been in the league five years and has 18 career catches. At some point, it's time to give up on a guy who couldn't beat out Randy Hymes, Travis Taylor, or Clarence Moore for years in a perennially bad Ravens offense.

Current Leader: Devard Darling
Projected Week 1 Winner: Will Franklin

Chargers No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Jacob Hester/Darren Sproles/[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4910"]Marcus Thomas[/URL]

With LaDainian Tomlinson nearing 30 (29 in June), this position may finally matter. It never did when Michael Turner was backing up because LT has missed one game in his seven-year career, in 2004 when Jesse Chatman was second on the depth chart. Hester holds that distinction now, but he's more of a utilityman whose game doesn't stand out in any area. The sleeper is Thomas, a power back and adept pass catcher. Sproles is likely to be third on the depth chart and play special teams, but act as a pace change if Tomlinson gets injured. Thomas still needs a monster preseason, and draft status is working against him, but he might prove the best option to carry the load if needed. LT owners should watch this battle during exhibition season.

Current Leader: Jacob Hester
Projected Week 1 Winner: Jacob Hester

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Moving Day

I've written many times not to overrate the preseason. But we can still look for winners and losers when game performances lead to regular season playing time. I'm still mostly concerned with position battles and injuries. I'll also include some fantasy movers and losers from other league news.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL] & Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: Great weekend for both Miami backs. The acquisition of Chad Pennington should help make the Miami passing game competent, leading to longer drives and more scores. Pennington is also fond of the dump-off pass. While Pennington remains a weak fantasy bet, he is an upgrade in Miami. www.miamidolphins.ws

Brown's return to game action Saturday was also an unqualified success. He rushed for only four yards on three carries, but his recovery from ACL surgery is ahead of schedule. Again, don't get carried away with preseason performance. But Ricky's sharp cuts, improvisational skills, and broken tackles show that he's healthy and ready to go. We like him as a RB4 pick. The Dolphins could split carries early, but don't forsake Ronnie's long-term value.

Editor's Note: See where Ronnie and Ricky are ranked in our online draft guide.

Eddie Royal, Broncos: Royal started the opening preseason game over Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, an impressive leap for the rookie. Is Mike Shanahan trying to motivate Jackson or is Royal a better fit opposite Brandon Marshall? Either way, Royal is currently in a position to put up the best rookie receiver stats in the league. That may only make him a late-round pick, but keep an eye on how this battle goes.

Marvin Harrison, Colts: Three catches, two first downs, and twenty-two yards. Using my Sorgi-to-Manning conversion chart, Harrison would have gained 258 yards if his normal quarterback was behind center. Harrison was tackled hard twice and kept making catches, which is a good sign. Concern about his knee continues to fade, as his value as a WR2 continues to rise. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

(Incidentally, behold the awesome power of the 24-yard [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3481"]Jared Lorenzen scramble about 2:10 in to this video.[/URL] The Hefty Lefty can move! And he may take Jim Sorgi's job if this keeps up.)

Matt Ryan, Falcons: Playing primarily with first-teamers, Ryan made his case to be the Week 1 starter. That may not be good thing for Roddy White owners. www.atlantafalcons.ws

Felix Jones, Cowboys - Dallas continues to look for some "wow" in their offense. Jones' 19-yard run and 28-yard catch, in which he made plenty of tacklers whiff, should help him get on the field for 10-15 touches a game early in the season.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], Titans: The fact that Johnson can out-run the Rams' second team without making a cut doesn't really change my view of him. We know he can burn. Quinton Ganther tore off a huge play later in the game, and we're not pegging him as a sleeper. www.tennesseetitans.ws

Johnson's impressive practices, though, is making him hard to ignore. He's winning over the coaching staff. Once you account for his receiving numbers, Johnson could challenge LenDale White for most valuable Titans running back. We're not ranking them that way quite yet, but we will if it looks like Johnson has a chance to start.
Update: It looks like we're headed for a committee.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: Rivers took a sack. He got hit on a deep pass attempt that was called for pass interference. He also led the team to a touchdown on his second series. As ACL recoveries go, Rivers continues to work ahead of schedule. It was a victory just to play at all this weekend. Even though we'd expect inconsistent play early in the year, Rivers will clearly be ready to go in Week 1. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Jacob Hester, Chargers: The burly backup to LT2 dove in for two short touchdowns. His short-yardage role is why he's a better handcuff for Tomlinson owners than Darren Sproles. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Rice Rice, Ravens- Baltimore's offensive line threatens to make all the Ravens look terrible, but Rice's role is growing. Willis McGahee will undergo knee surgery Monday. He should be ready for Week 1, but there were already questions about his conditioning level. Rice's strong practices should help him get more a carries than your average third-down back, especially early in the year. Rice is a solid reserve pick. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Robert Meachem, Saints: Last year's first round pick may have emerged as the favorite for the third receiver job in New Orleans after gaining 129 yards against the Arizona backups. Don't get too excited yet though: Lance Moore started in front of him.

Tim Hightower, Cardinals: Peeking his head out from Arizona quagmire as favorite to be Edgerrin James' active backup. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Matt Leinart, Cardinals: So far, so good in quest to hold off Kurt Warner. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Kevin Jones, Bears: Off the PUP list, which means he should be ready to backup Matt Forte before long. Chicago's line could keep all their backs' numbers under wraps, but Jones is a better fantasy pick than the other [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL].

Maurice Morris, Seahawks: Mike Holmgren is serious about this jobshare at running back. Morris started the first preseason game; Julius Jones will start the second.

Greg Jones, Jaguars: Remember him? The Pro Bowl fullback, now two years removed from his second ACL surgery, looked strong while backing up Fred Taylor at tailback in Jacksonville. If Taylor or Mo-Jo gets hurt, Jones could vulture a lot of scores. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: We will continue to be careful to overreact to training camp puff pieces, but Williams appears to be carving out more than a third-down role in Carolina. Jonathan Stewart should still prove to be the workhorse over time, but he needs to get some preseason work in. There's a decent chance Williams will open the season as a starter, even if the two are splitting work. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Andre Hall, Broncos: With Ryan Torain out for three months, Hall continues to solidify his role as Selvin Young's backup.

<!--RW-->[SIZE=+1]Stuck in Neutral[/SIZE]

LaMont Jordan, Patriots: Jordan carried the load to open the preseason, a sign he may be fourth on the depth chart to open camp. The Patriots don't use their key players much in early preseason games. With that said, Jordan showed some late-career Corey Dillon-like slashing running ability. He may be able to run over defenders better than any of his teammates.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

Darrell Jackson, Broncos: Jackson has every chance to revive his career in Denver, but Eddie Royal quickly passing him on the depth chart is a bad sign. Jackson could re-take the job by improving this month or by producing when Brandon Marshall is out of the lineup in the first two weeks. But the tie will go to the rookie, and Jackson is looking like a less inspiring late sleeper pick.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: It's better to get a minor surgery out of the way now, but any knee troubles for someone who previously tore his ACL is a concern. Of greater concern: McGahee's weak offensive teammates. The offensive line has huge questions, and the quarterbacks aren't any better. Repeating last season looks like McGahee's upside, making McGahee another third-round RB2 pick, rather than one of the only solid second backs to take in front of elite receivers. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Ahman Green, Texans: No one takes Ahman Green seriously this season as a fantasy asset because he's expected to get hurt. He started to build Houston's confidence with a healthy camp, but it took exactly one preseason snap to hurt his groin. He's expected to miss the next week. While it doesn't appear to be a devastating injury, it's a reminder that Green can't be trusted to hold up for long. Chris Brown hasn't stayed healthy for long either. It's going to be a committee, we just don't know the members yet.

Baltimore quarterbacks: They all made mistakes against New England, although Troy Smith took the biggest step back. He didn't look composed playing against third-teamers, and two possible interceptions were dropped by the Patriots. After a poor couple of practices following Baltimore's game, he needs to improve quickly this week. Smith also made an inspired but ridiculous dive on the sideline for a wayward Patriots pass while watching the action. Baltimore's quarterbacks aren't draft-worthy this season, but all the uncertainty doesn't bode well for Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton.

Tatum Bell, Lions: The Lions want to talk about their new balanced offense, but they need to learn how to run block. Bell was continually hit in the backfield as Detroit's zone scheme didn't identify Giants defenders. Kevin Smith didn't look much better in relief, but he could move up the depth chart soon after Bell rushed for only eight yards on seven carries. It's not a good sign when Drew Stanton leads the team in rushing. www.detroitlions.ws

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL], 49ers: The J.T. O'Sullivan threat is real. While Shaun Hill is slowly fading away, O'Sullivan practiced with the first team after starting San Francisco's first preseason game. I still consider Smith the favorite to win the job, but the odds are closer to 60-40 now.

Bryant Johnson, 49ers: A hamstring injury will force him to miss San Francisco's first two preseason games. Johnson is still expected to be the 49ers starter in Week 1, but the breakout candidate is missing valuable time.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

AFC Projected Carries
Some pet peeves:

1. Local Sports announcers who don't know anything about sports.

2. The practice of calling every recently completed sporting event or athlete the best or worst of all time. Example: "Michael Phelps is the greatest athlete of all time in failing to spark a compelling storyline from dogged reporters."

3. People that walk into a subway car before allowing you the chance to walk out of the subway. These people deserve a special circle in hell. Or at least a stray elbow or shoulder.

4. Forced introductions to columns.

This was originally going to the beginning to a list of storylines about the 2008 season that drive me crazy. While that column may come eventually, I can't muster the appropriate Bayless-level of bile on August 13. I'm too thankful for the season being right around the corner. The training camp portion of the preseason is mostly ending this week, people! Let's celebrate with more projected carries, now out of the AFC backfield. If you missed it, I broke down the NFC Tuesday. I'll finish the final eight teams on Thursday, and then wrap up running back week with some Tiers of Heaven on Friday.

Baltimore Ravens
Coach: John Harbaugh| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 380

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will essentially run the offense. He leans towards the run and has helped LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown reach new heights this decade. Look for the running backs to be involved in the passing game.

Willis McGahee: 280
Ray Rice: 100
www.baltimoreravens.ws
These numbers grew closer this week following Willis McGahee's knee surgery. While it was a minor procedure, McGahee's lack of conditioning to start camp is a concern. Can he hold up again? Rice has earned a big role with a great camp, but Baltimore's shaky offensive line is trouble for both players.

See how far McGahee fell in our online draft guide.

Buffalo Bills
Coach: Dick Jauron| Average Rushes/Year: 385
Projected 2008 Carries: 410
www.buffalobills.ws
According to Pro Football Prospectus, the Bills led the league in % of runs when they were trailing in the second half. Dick Jauron will go run-heavy in any situation, and modest improvement in the passing game will help extend drives and rack up carries.

Marshawn Lynch: 310
Fred Jackson: 90
Dwayne Wright: 10

The argument for Marshawn Lynch as a top-seven pick in a nutshell. He is almost as talented as any back in the league, he's young, and he's a good bet to finish in the top-five in carries. The Bills say they will use him more in the passing game. Fred Jackson is the clear backup and a fine handcuff.

Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis| Average Rushes/Year: 398
Projected 2008 Carries: 380

Marvin Lewis wants to run. He has the offensive line and the passing game to make it work, but the backfield remains a mystery. This team should lean pass because that's where the best talent is.

Rudi Johnson: 160
Kenny Watson: 105
Chris Perry: 85
DeDe Dorsey: 30

This may be giving too much credit to Rudi, who has barely taken a hit all camp and doesn't seem likely to stay healthy for long. Perry has more upside than Watson, but can he last 16 weeks? Even if Watson starts the year third on the depth chart, he figures to split work with whoever survives between Perry and Rudi.

Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel| Average Rushes/Year: 355
Projected 2008 Carries: 400
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
The average annual rushes during the Crennel era are low, but he hit 396 carries last season from running backs with a good offense. This is a balanced team.

Jamal Lewis: 280
Jason Wright: 80
Jerome Harrison: 30
Lawrence Vickers: 10

Very little changed in Cleveland, so their 2007 totals didn't change much. Wright enjoyed a solid season as Lewis' backup, and I gave him a few extra carries this year due to the miles on Lewis' leg. <!--RW-->

Denver Broncos
Coach: Mike Shanahan| Average Rushes/Year: 433
Projected 2008 Carries: 410

Mike Shanahan wants to run, but will this roster allow it? His backs only had 375 carries last year, but he hit his career average with the unimposing Bell/Bell tag team in 2006. My faith in Jay Cutler boosts the totals of his backs.

Selvin Young: 195
Andre Hall: 95
Michael Pittman: 60
Ryan Torain: 30
Anthony Alridge: 30

If anyone else was coaching this team, we would wonder what the hell they were doing. With Torain out half the season or more, there isn't a true power back available. The most experienced runner, Michael Pittman, is mostly playing fullback. This is Selvin Young's opportunity to be a top-15 fantasy back. He will maintain that pace as long as he's healthy, but there are big concerns about him holding up.

Houston Texans
Coach: Gary Kubiak| Average Rushes/Year: 367
Projected 2008 Carries: 370

Gary Kubiak brought in zone blocking guru Alex Gibbs this off-season. The Texans want to run, and Gibbs' history indicates that they will do it well. Eventually. The talent remains in the passing game, and that's how this team leaned last year. I may have projected more carries here if I knew who to give them too ?

Ahman Green: 130
Chris Brown: 110
Steve Slaton: 80
Chris Taylor: 50

Gary Kubiak clearly went to the Shanahan School of throwing backs against the wall to see what sticks. In this scenario, Darius Walker didn't make the team and doesn't have a carry. Other than Slaton, though, no one is guaranteed a job in Houston. Green couldn't last a carry in the preseason before getting hurt. Brown is always hurt, although I think he has the best chance to be a difference maker, if only for a month at a time. Taylor has upside, but may be more of a fullback. This mess is going committee. And if doesn't work, Kubiak has Ron Dayne's number on speed dial. I'm sure he's stayed in good shape.

Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Tony Dungy| Average Rushes/Year: 409
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
The modern version of the Colts is very adaptable. They can skew run or pass depending on the season and their personnel. They can throw or run in the red zone, like they did in 2007. The key remains Peyton Manning, who keeps the offense moving and gets his backs the ball when they face favorable defensive fronts.

Joseph Addai: 270
Dominic Rhodes: 85
Mike Hart: 40
Kenton Keith: 20

Is Joseph Addai a workhorse or not? His fade in the second half of last season suggests the Colts will be careful with his workload. This won't be a committee, but the backups will get involved, especially if the Colts are fortunate enough to get big leads. Keith looks like the odd man out, but that could change.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio| Average Rushes/Year: 428
Projected 2008 Carries: 440
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
This team is better at passing, but that doesn't mean they will do it more often. The Jaguars define smashmouth and have the talent to run like crazy.

Fred Taylor: 205
Maurice Jones-Drew: 185
Greg Jones: 35
Chauncey Washington: 15

Since Drew will get nearly all the receptions and red zone touches, he remains the most valuable Jaguar by far. But he needs Taylor to get hurt or finally start declining to reach his true potential. Otherwise, Mo-Jo will remain an inconsistent week-to-week option.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

AFC Projected Carries, Part II
We projected carries for the NFC and half the AFC earlier in the week. The final eight AFC teams below will take us home.

Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Herm Edwards| Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2008 Carries: 410
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
No coach consistently runs more and plays a slower-paced brand of football than Herman Edwards. Herm gave his backs 465 carries in 2006, but he had a competent quarterback then. Brodie Croyle changes that.

Larry Johnson: 300
Jamaal Charles: 60
Kolby Smith: 50

Edwards always says he'll get his backups in the mix, but he traditionally runs his starter ragged. L.J. remains an injury risk, lowering his projected carries. His talented backups would likely split carries if he got hurt.

See Larry Johnson's projection and rank in our online draft guide.

Miami Dolphins
Coach: Tony Sparano| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 393
www.miamidolphins.ws
This is Sparano's first run as a head coach, but we know he likes to divvy up the work at running back. We also know that Bill Parcells teams play to their strengths, but usually have a heavy dose of power running. This team will try to shorten games by running plenty. That's where the talent is.

Ronnie Brown: 218
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]: 130
Jalen Parmele: 45

This should be a relatively even split in September while Brown gets his legs under him. As he builds strength in his knee, he should take over as the primary guy. He's also much better than Ricky in the passing game. Still, you can't expect Brown to set his career high in carries after tearing his ACL. If Ricky can stay healthy, he's going to get plenty of work and be a nice RB4 value.

New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick| Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

The Patriots are a pass-first team, especially in the red zone, but they play to their personnel. With five quality backs and a slow-footed line that may have pass protection issues on the right side, we expect the Patriots to be closer to balanced this season.

Laurence Maroney: 225
LaMont Jordan: 90
Sammy Morris: 60
Kevin Faulk: 30
Heath Evans: 10

Expect the Patriots to change up their usage patterns depending on the opponent. Jordan has less tenure than Morris, but more dynamic skills. This would definitely be a committee if Maroney got hurt, which limits the upside of the New England backups. Jordan and Morris are still worthwhile late-round picks.

New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 395
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets have been a conservative team under Eric Mangini, but they are similar to the Patriots: flexible enough to change their strategy each week, and season. With Brett Favre in town, they figure to throw more.

Thomas Jones: 275
Leon Washington: 65
Jesse Chatman: 35
Musa Smith: 20

Jones could once again carry the ball 300 times for a cheap price. His backups are better this year, though, so his touches may go down. Look for more scores and increased effectiveness with an improved passing game. Chatman or Smith figure to get cut, so their carries will combine then.

Editor's Note: Jones makes a fine fourth-round pick in PPR leagues like the NBC Sports Fantasy Championship.

Oakland Raiders
Coach: Lane Kiffin| Average Rushes/Year: 441
Projected 2008 Carries: 435
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Lane Kiffin called an incredible amount of running plays last year considering how poor their passing attack was. They were also incredibly effective blockers. They should contend for the league lead in carries again, which bodes well for all their backs.

Darren McFadden: 210
Justin Fargas: 160
Michael Bush: 65

McFadden may start the year behind Fargas, but he's still likely to finish it with more touches. The rookie isn't ready to be a 20-carry-per-game back, though, so don't ignore Fargas when looking for mid-round depth. Bush is the wild card, but he'll need an injury in front of him to truly matter.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin| Average Rushes/Year: 452
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

Mike Tomlin picked up right where Bill Cowher left off ? running like crazy. The team has more receiving weapons than ever, and may not be playing with the lead as often. We see them getting closer to balance this year.

Willie Parker: 225
Rashard Mendenhall: 155
Mewelde Moore: 40

I've said it all offseason, but most people smartly don't read me in the offseason: Willie Parker is the new Fred Taylor. He will rely on big plays and lead his team in carries, but won't be on the field during the money downs.

San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner| Average Rushes/Year: 440
Projected 2008 Carries: 440
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Norv Turner is not shy about working his starting running back hard. There's no reason to think that will change with Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates coming off injury.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 325
Jacob Hester: 70
Darren Sproles: 35
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4910"]Marcus Thomas[/URL]: 10

Tomlinson has averaged 338 carries as a starter. He may have reached that total last year, but was able to sit after halftime in the final few weeks of the season. He finished with 315, and the Chargers have enough depth to spell him occasionally. Sproles should do most of his damage on third downs.

Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
www.tennesseetitans.ws
In a constantly evolving NFL, it's nice to know we can count on two things from Jeff Fisher, decade after decade: Awesome facial hair and a smashmouth offense. Those trends should continue, especially with another high pick in the backfield and maulers on the line.

LenDale White: 245
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]: 145
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]: 25

With Chris Wesseling leading the way, we have admittedly caught [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] fever. White was projected for close to 300 carries, but the workload has evened out. Once you factor in receptions, we see White and Johnson having close to the same total yardage. White still remains the heavy favorite, however, to lead the team in carries and touchdowns. We doubt Johnson will be asked to carry the ball 20 times as a rookie. With a nasty offensive line hitting their prime, both backs could excel ala Jacksonville. Both look undervalued.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Tiers of Heaven: RBs
Fantasy owners are always asking us at Rotoworld for that one tip; the one sentence that will solve their fantasy football league. It doesn't exist.

The best advice we have is to know more than the owner next to you, have a system of evaluating players, and to be flexible within that system. Every season, every draft, every choice is different. The owner that is flexible enough to look for value at each pick will win over the long run.

We believe creating tiers at each position. to maximize value is the best system. (And if you know our tiering system well, skip to the fun below.) Cheats sheets are great, but don't always see the big picture. Tiers can help when you have a difficult choice like taking your starting tight end in the sixth round or continuing to build depth at receiver.

Let's say Chris Cooley was near the top of your Top 200 board, and you still have a hole at tight end. It looks like a no brainer. Looking at your tiers, however, you notice that many other tight ends from his tier including Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap are still available.

You check your wide receiver tiers and notice that Lee Evans is the last wideout standing from your third tier. You don't necessarily need another wide receiver, but there is a huge projected drop-off after Evans. Taking him maximizes value. There is almost certain to be a similarly valued tight end to Cooley available with your next pick. Evans is the choice.

The 2008 Running Back Tiers are below. Our Draft Guide Subscribers have had access to the constantly evolving tiers at each position since June. They will get all the important updates to over 500 profiles, projections, rankings, and tiers in the buildup to draft day. They can customize their cheat sheets to fit their individual scoring system. The only thing we can guarantee is that value changes every day, so consider this the running back snapshot for August 15, 2008.

[SIZE=+1]Tiers of Heaven: Running Backs[/SIZE]

You are going to hear a lot this preseason that it's a down year for running backs because of all the committees. While there is certainly more uncertainty after the top-ten than usual, it's more accurate to say that last year was a down year for running backs. That is mostly reflected in our Top-200 rankings, where we recommend taking most WR1s over second running backs.

Just don't get carried away. Because of position scarcity, nabbing three quality running backs is still a must for any owner with designs on a title. You just may be able to grab those starters a round or two later than usual. Quality players will fall to the fifth and sixth round.

Note: These players are ranked in standard non-PPR scoring.

Tier One: LaDainian Tomlinson, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Peterson's collapse in December made this decision easier, but not a cinch. Peterson is a singular talent. Drafting him is drafting a 10% chance at a historic season. He still has a lot of room for improvement, which is scary. LT2 is still the best, but he's not going to reach his 2006 dominance again.

Tier Two: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL], Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
We'd take all these backs before any quarterback or receiver. Westbrook is likely to see fewer touches this season, but remains the best pass-catching back. Jackson performed as expected after his injury last season despite a terrible team. The offensive line has to get better. We're not worried about Jackson's holdout yet. Addai is the safest bet for 12+ scores other than LT2, but probably won't reach 300 carries. Gore's talent and the addition of Mike Martz will make him a great value if he falls.

Note:See how far Westbrook and Gore climb in our PPR rankings.

Tier Three: Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Ryan Grant
www.washingtonredskins.ws
The end of the true RB1s. This is a season with very few sure things at the position. Lynch is clear of any legal problems and is entering his prime. No one breaks more tackles. Other than Barber, we see 300 carries from the other backs in this tier. Barber makes it up with touchdowns and receptions. It would be nice to see Grant get back on the practice field. Even though the top wideouts are safer picks, we'd still grab these RB1s before most of them.

Tier Four: Maurice Jones-Drew, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Jonathan Stewart, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Drafts will be won and lost this season at the RB2 position. Mo-Jo needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize his full potential. Larry Johnson may be healthier, but he was struggling badly on the Chiefs before getting hurt next year. He won't look like the old L.J. until Will Shields and Willie Roaf un-retire. McGahee was very steady last season, but his offensive line is worse and he's coming off a mid-August surgery. Ronnie Brown is a top-five talent, but has yet to top 300 touches and is coming off a torn ACL. Jacobs, Bush, and Maroney could be buy-low candidates on explosive offenses, but they have to worry about carries. Jacobs has the highest ceiling of any back here if he stays healthy. Stewart is an intriguing all-down bruiser who could be a great value as a rookie like [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL] and Marshawn Lynch last season. He may not open the year carrying the load, but he'll finish it that way.

We see more boom-or-busts in this group than ever. Taking a second-round wide receiver makes a lot of sense this year ahead of most of these guys. You can limit your risk and maximize value by taking this group in round three. Two backs from the top four tiers starts off your running back group with strength.

Willis McGahee took a hit in our most recent draft guide rankings.

Tier Five: Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Earnest Graham, Selvin Young
www.oaklandraiders.ws
The last of the legitimate RB2s. McFadden may not last long, but the other four could fall into the fourth and fifth round. Jones isn't flashy, but he could give you 300 cheap carries. Jones is a safe bet to score more. Turner is a great talent, but is stuck in a nearly impossible situation. Earnest Graham is unlikely to carry the load as much as last year. Selvin Young is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick, but he'll be a difference maker while healthy. If you don't have a RB2 before this tier, make sure to get one.

Win $100K using these tiers at the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. I'll see all of you in NY.

Tier Six: LenDale White, Matt Forte, Edgerrin James, Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]
www.arizonacardinals.ws
The best of the committee backs and RB3s. White faces a challenge from [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], but still should lead a smashmouth team with a great line in carries. He can still crack 1,000 yards and 8-10 scores. He's a safer pick than Johnson in this format, but Johnson should get the ball enough to be an intriguing fantasy reserve. Forte has a decent chance to lead all rookie runners in carries, but the Bears offense is a concern. Parker is going to lose work to Mendenhall, and now profiles like a younger Fred Taylor, needing a big play every week. Chester Taylor has stand-alone value, but [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL] owners should reach a round early for him. Julius Jones is set up for a rebound in Seattle, but has looked like an average talent. He will probably start the year splitting carries.

We look at RB3s as a starter, whether you use a flex position or not. You will need to use them over the course of the season. These are the best of the bunch and are worth mid-round grades.

Note: Check out the Fantasy Fix running back preview, with analysis, rankings, Ms. Tiffany Simons, and some other dude.

Tier Seven: DeAngelo Williams, Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Fargas, Rudi Johnson, Kevin Smith
www.detroitlions.ws
Shaky starters, promising backups, and some players in between. The situations in Cincy, Carolina, and Detroit remain up from grabs. Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson are the favorites, but are no locks to keep their jobs. Committees look likely. DeAngelo Williams may open the year as a starter in Carolina, but probably won't play in the red zone and is likely to lose his job. Bradshaw could be the most dynamic committee back in the league. Fargas was a perfect fit for Oakland's scheme and may be ignored in drafts this year. Felix Jones is a dynamic third-down back at worst.

RB4s are ultimately reserves, so be careful of reaching too early for risky picks. They should start going off the board halfway through a 12-team draft. Pick a player or two that you feel is undervalued to build your depth. Ideally, you'd draft four backs from the first seven tiers.

Tier Eight: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL], Maurice Morris, Kenny Watson, Pierre Thomas, Jerious Norwood, Ray Rice, Chris Brown, Ahman Green
www.miamidolphins.ws
For the most part, these are high upside backups and third-down backs. Rice has earned a big role in Baltimore with an impressive rookie off-season. He could play more early with Willis McGahee banged up. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL] could split carries in Miami to open the year and looks fresh. He'll give way during the season to Ronnie Brown. Morris should start the year splitting work in Seattle, but we've seen what he can do as a starter. He's only useful as fantasy depth. Green and Brown make a colorfully injury-prone tandem in Houston that we'll let someone else draft. Thomas has extra value as a backup on a high-octane offense. Norwood continues to be limited by his situation in Atlanta, but he's very talented.

Tier Nine: Fred Jackson, Ladell Betts, Warrick Dunn, LaMont Jordan, Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Chris Perry, Andre Hall, Steve Slaton, Leon Washington, Derrick Ward, Jason Wright, Brandon Jackson
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
The best of the remaining draftable players and handcuffs to attach to your starters. Of this group, Perry, Kevin Jones, and Jordan have the most potential to emerge with a bigger role. Past performance wouldn't indicate that is likely, though. Perry will climb a tier if this weekend goes well. Hall and Rhodes are intriguing because they are an injury away on explosive offenses.

Tier Ten: Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, Tim Hightower, Correll Buckhalter, Deuce McAllister, Lorenzo Booker, Jacob Hester, Sammy Morris, Michael Pittman, DeShaun Foster, Kolby Smith, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL] (CHI), Sammy Morris, Brian Calhoun, Kevin Faulk
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Mostly reserves here with questionable roles, but they are all on the fantasy radar. McAllister has the chance for a big role, but any success would be going against all medical precedent after duel ACL and microfracture surgeries in the off-season. Watch our news closely to see what develops with all the borderline cases.

Note: In case you hadn't heard eight other times in this column, you can head to our draft guide for tiers at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and even kicker! We also have dynasty tiers, over 500 profiles, cheat sheets, and much more. This is our big time of year, so thanks to everyone that supports our year-round coverage.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Second Year Eruption
This is a Daily Dose about position battles, but I wanted to start off by pointing out how smoking hot Calvin Johnson is through two preseason weeks. We already know last year's No. 2 overall pick possesses the tools necessary to dominate. Now, he's doing it.

Johnson's rookie year was slightly disappointing. He battled a season-long back injury and there were rumblings his grasp of then-coordinator Mike Martz's playbook was incomplete. But despite playing at significantly less than 100 percent, Johnson averaged 15.4 yards per catch, good for eighth in the NFL among receivers who caught 40 or more balls.

Johnson has played a total of four preseason series, all in the first quarter against starting secondaries. Detroit faced fundamentally sound Giants CBs Aaron Ross and Corey Webster in the exhibition opener and up-and-coming Bengals duo Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph in Sunday night's contest. In those four series, Johnson is averaging 22.0 YPC on seven grabs, including Sunday's 27-yard touchdown. That came after Joseph smacked Johnson in the face at the line of scrimmage to draw an illegal contact flag. The penalty was declined.

Besides his return to health and eye-popping early preseason performance, there is much to like about Johnson's situation this year.

1. The Lions traded away their best defender in the offseason, dealing NT Shaun Rogers for a draft pick and inconsistent cornerback Leigh Bodden. Bodden hasn't even cracked the starting lineup yet. Rogers has looked unstoppable in Cleveland. The Lions replaced him with 33-year-old journeyman Chartric Darby, who's 6'0/297 to Rogers' 6'4/370. Darby is also coming off a torn patellar tendon. Ranked dead last in the NFL last year and now even worse on paper, the Lions' defense is going to be dreadful again. No matter what new offensive boss Jim Colletto promises, this team will have to throw to stay in games. www.detroitlions.ws

2. Detroit's running game is struggling badly in its conversion to a zone-blocking system. As a team, the Lions are averaging 3.0 yards per carry, which ranks second worst in the league through two preseason weeks. And while preseason stats are often meaningless, there's little room for optimism considering their lack of backfield talent. The Lions' offensive strengths are their wideouts and capable quarterback.

3. Playbook concerns are a thing of the past with Martz's intricacies gone to San Francisco and Colletto's more basic version of the same scheme installed. The Lions will go heavy on two-receiver sets and Johnson's targets will skyrocket.

4. Johnson is locked in as a starter. Shaun McDonald, who's still rehabbing after offseason knee surgery, started opposite [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] throughout last season. A "Martz guy," McDonald is now strictly a slot receiver playing in an offense that won't go three wide. Johnson will be an every-down player.

5. Calvin Johnson is a physical freak, lest we not forget. His hands are the size of Babe Ruth-era baseball gloves, he is ideally built at 6'5/237, can jump through the roof, and runs like a deer (4.35 forty at the 2007 Combine). Good luck to any cornerbacks trying to jam this guy. Johnathan Joseph won't make that mistake again.

While you consider pre-draft ranking Johnson among your top 15 receivers after reading this intro and envision young Calvin erupting like Mount Vesuvius on a weekly basis, here are some updates on position battles around the league...

Saints No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: David Patten/Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson

Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Robert Meachem

Bengals No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson

Rudi's previously pulled hamstring tightened up yet again before the Bengals' second exhibition game Sunday night. Perry got the start and had what looked like a golden opportunity to seize the starting job against a beatable Lions rush defense and behind a healthy Bengals offensive line. He was only mediocre. Perry has looked powerful so far, but not especially quick or explosive. That could bode badly for Johnson, however, because Rudi is a grinder at this stage who doesn't offer anything on passing downs. Watson and Perry both excel in the receiving game. I'm not suggesting it's likely, but Johnson's roster spot could be in doubt depending on what happens against the Saints on Saturday night. Rudi is unreliable and the Bengals don't need him.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Perry

Panthers No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams
www.carolinapanthers.ws
Williams' explosive (9-55-2) preseason debut and lasting concern about Stewart's recovery from toe surgery have the first-round pick's Average Draft Position falling rapidly. However, Williams did it against mostly Colts backups, wasn't as great in Thursday's game (8-32-0), and the Panthers were satisfied enough with Stewart's health to play him in Philadelphia. He's been medically cleared and will play more Saturday night against the Redskins. Stewart couldn't reasonably be expected to pass Williams as a "starter" because promoting rookies over vets just isn't John Fox's style, but the power back remains the best bet to lead Carolina in carries this season. Williams isn't a between-the-tackles runner and the Panthers beefed up their offensive line and signed run-blocking wideout Muhsin Muhammad because they want to gash defenses up the middle. We'd limit our expectations for Stewart early in the year, but Williams has very little chance to be more than a pace-changing committee piece by midseason.

Current Leader: DeAngelo Williams
Projected Week 1 Winner: DeAngelo Williams

Cardinals No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: Matt Leinart/Kurt Warner
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Warner didn't even get into the Cards' exhibition opener, watching as Brian St. Pierre and former Penn State star (if you can call him that) Anthony Morelli mopped up for Leinart. Coach Ken Whisenhunt let Warner play Saturday, but Leinart was better and the scale has been tipped in the southpaw QB's favor after Whiz called it an open competition at the outset of camp. Whisenhunt inserted Warner during red-zone situations last year, but intends to keep Leinart in when Arizona nears the goal line this season because his knowledge of the offense has improved. Though Warner might be the better option currently -- and a potential top-eight fantasy QB if he was the starter -- Leinart has the coaching staff's backing and would have to flounder badly in the last half of August to make it mildly interesting. Leinart's early-season schedule (@ SF, vs. MIA, @ WAS, @ NYJ, vs. BUF) is favorable, so expect him to stay on the safe end of a medium-length leash and be a worthwhile QB2 pick late in fantasy drafts.

Current Leader: Matt Leinart
Projected Week 1 Winner: Matt Leinart

<!--RW-->

Texans No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Ahman Green/Chris Brown/Chris Taylor/Darius Walker

I didn't include Steve Slaton because he was drafted to add speed to the backfield and assist on third downs, not start, even if he will get first-team carries Friday in Dallas. Houston's ideal option for the lead role would be Green, if he could be effective or stay healthy. He can do neither, as evidenced by consistently poor-to-mediocre play over the last three years and a strained groin suffered on his first preseason touch. Brown can play, but is another pulled muscle waiting to happen. Taylor is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and hasn't moved the ball in the preseason (2.4 YPC on 22 carries). The Texans' running back pecking order is still very much undetermined, and there is growing speculation that Green could be released before final cuts. Marcel Shipp was signed last week and brings short-yardage ability to the mix. We'll know more after Friday's game.

Current Leader: Ahman Green
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Brown

Seahawks No. 3 Receiver
Competitors: Courtney Taylor/Ben Obomanu/Logan Payne

Bobby Engram's cracked shoulder will sideline him until at least Week 5, and a return closer to midseason can't be ruled out due to his age (35) and previous battle with Graves disease, a condition that affects the immune system. While he is out, the winner between Taylor and Obomanu will see favorable starts @ BUF (29th in pass defense last year), vs. SF (22nd), and vs. STL (21st). The coaches are clearly in Taylor's corner and he's running with the first team opposite Nate Burleson. Obomanu started Seattle's first preseason game in the slot and could stay there if he doesn't pass Taylor, but still must fend off Payne, who's more of a field stretcher than any of Seattle's wideouts and impressed with four catches for 38 yards in Saturday's exhibition. Taylor is the most physical and runs the best routes of the bunch, making him an ideal fit at flanker. His main obstacle has been nagging injuries, but if Taylor can stay healthy and excel while being peppered with Matt Hasselbeck targets in those first three games, a WR4-caliber season is within reach. This position is fantasy sleeper central.

Current Leader: Courtney Taylor
Projected Week 1 Winner: Courtney Taylor

49ers No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL]/J.T. O'Sullivan/Shaun Hill

Mike Nolan says O'Sullivan is winning this battle despite no history of success in a seven-year career. Since O'Sullivan is coordinator Mike Martz's guy, it's clear that Nolan has ceded control of the offense for now. Martz kicked Hill to the curb, while Smith still lurks on the second team. Martz may think O'Sullivan has starting ability in his offense, but JTO can't continue to turn the ball over and keep the job. He lost a fumble, threw a pick, and directed the offense to zero points in over a quarter of the Niners' preseason opener. In Saturday's exhibition, O'Sullivan did a little better but threw another interception, completed fewer than 50% of his attempts, and made mental mistakes. Our money remains on Smith because he's the smartest quarterback on the roster and has the best arm and athleticism. Perhaps O'Sullivan will open as San Francisco's starter, but recall that Nolan has final say over game-day decisions and if JTO keeps up the sloppiness, Nolan can overrule Martz and make the switch. We'd guess it happens sooner than later, especially if O'Sullivan lays another egg Thursday at Chicago. It definitely doesn't hurt that Nolan is on one of the hotter seats in the league and a lot of his evaluation at season's end will be tied to Smith's development. Or lack thereof.

Current Leader: J.T. O'Sullivan
Projected Week 1 Winner: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL]

Dolphins No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Ernest Wilford/Derek Hagan/Davone Bess
www.miamidolphins.ws
Miami's preliminary camp depth chart had Wilford starting opposite Ted Ginn Jr., but Hagan's practice play has been too impressive for him to be a backup any longer and he's officially moved up. Hagan hasn't been as outstanding in preseason games, but neither has Wilford and Hagan offers more speed outside. Hagan may finally be coming into his own at age 23 after being a third-round pick in 2006. Wilford is what he is; a red-zone option with possession skills but shaky hands and little vertical ability. Bess, a pure slot guy who led Colt Brennan's Hawaii Rainbows in receiving the past two seasons, is running as a starter in three-receiver sets. That makes Wilford a fourth receiver in essence and undraftable even in the deepest of leagues. Don't look for much to change here in-season. Hagan is nearing the end of his rookie deal and the Dolphins need to find out if he's worth a long-term commitment. Wilford could still come in when Miami needs a blocker out wide.

Current Leader: Derek Hagan
Projected Week 1 Winner: Derek Hagan

Eagles No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Correll Buckhalter/Tony Hunt/Lorenzo Booker/Ryan Moats

While Brian Westbrook rested during Philly's first exhibition, Buckhalter started and Booker ran extensively with the twos and threes. They're both ahead of Hunt and Moats on the depth chart, with the latter two in danger of being goners at final cuts. Hunt helped himself with a 51-yard touchdown in the Birds' second preseason game, but it came against Panthers backups (Carolina also apparently has the slowest third-stringers in the league). Buckhalter has the second spot on lock, although Booker could play more as long as Westbrook is healthy. If Westbrook gets hurt, Buckhalter would take the field first, operating on early downs and near the goal line. Booker would handle kickoff returns and third-down duty, thus leaving Westbrook without a clear fantasy handcuff. In a touchdown-heavy league, Buckhalter is the backup for Westbrook owners to target. In leagues awarding points for receptions or return yards, Booker is the safer choice.

Current Leader: Correll Buckhalter
Projected Week 1 Winner: Correll Buckhalter

Chiefs No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Kolby Smith/Jamaal Charles/Jackie Battle/Dantrell Savage
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Odd roster movement is all over the place at Chiefs camp. At linebacker, No. 2 receiver, offensive line, placekicker, and left corner players that wouldn't even make most teams are getting starting opportunities. Time will tell whether that's due to poor personnel evaluation (we're betting it is), but the weirdest of all is behind Larry Johnson. Battle, who went undrafted and was on the street for three months in 2007 before being snapped up by the then-tailback desperate Chiefs, was directly behind L.J. on the initial camp depth chart. Meanwhile, Charles is putting the ball on the ground like he did at Texas and not threatening for playing time. He did not receive one carry in Saturday's exhibition bout with Arizona. Smith should win this job because of his experience, reliability, and respectable skill level, but probably won't have any security despite his solid efforts in relief of Johnson last season. The easiest solution to all this is to not draft Kansas City's starter due to his lost step, embarrassing offensive line, and worse quarterback situation. Then you won't have to handcuff him.

Current Leader: Jackie Battle
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kolby Smith

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Dancing on the Ceiling
Fantasy leaguers are obsessed with Tremendous Upside Potential. Given the choice between a safe 1,000 yards (Donald Driver) and a riskier player who could get 1,250 (Calvin Johnson), we'll take the risk. We want the potential breakouts, the boom-or-busts. The following rankings should only feed that obsession.

I try to avoid overusing the word "upside", but I probably overuse "high ceiling" just as much. A player with a high ceiling of production has almost limitless potential, like the aforementioned Megatron. A player with a "high floor" like Matt Hasselbeck is a safer option.

The best draft strategy is to mix in steady players with high ceiling picks. The deeper into the draft you go, the more risk you should be willing to take. We're looking for difference makers.

DISCLAIMER: The following position rankings are ranked completely on what players have the highest ceiling. These are not Rotoworld's rankings! Often they aren't even close. (Save the emails, please.) The rankings ignore injury and job security risk. They ignore the boom or bust nature of some players like Lee Evans. They are rankings of every player as if everything went perfect for them this season. (When I say everything going right, I'm not including injuries to teammates. That's assuming too much.)

So who has the highest ceiling? Let's find out. The wideouts, tight ends, and a brand new industry Mock Draft will post Wednesday.


[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks Highest Ceiling Ranks[/SIZE]

1. Tom Brady: 50 touchdowns are the highest ceiling ever.
2. Peyton Manning: 49 used to be. www.indianapoliscolts.ws
3. Tony Romo
4. Drew Brees
5. Carson Palmer: Palmer actually moves down a few spots in this exercise
6. Vince Young: No one else could come close to his rushing potential. He already was a top-five QB5. www.tennesseetitans.ws
7. Derek Anderson: As ifBrady Quinn doesn't exist. www.clevelandbrowns.ws
8. Jay Cutler
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Matt Schaub: Sleeper pick for 4,000 yards
11. Ben Roethlisberger: 2007 was his ceiling; low attempts hurt him.
12. Matt Hasselbeck
13. David Garrard: The definition of a low ceiling and a high floor. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
14. Eli Manning: Similar to Garrard. www.newyorkgiants.ws
15. Aaron Rodgers: With his weapons, more upside than Favre. www.greenbaypackers.ws
16. Brett Favre www.newyorkjets.ws
17. Marc Bulger: More downside than upside at this point, which is sad.
18.Tarvaris Jackson: Don't laugh. While we don't rank him in our top-20, a healthy 19 games with 500 rushing yards from Jackson would be huge.
20. Jon Kitna: Can't argue with the receivers.
21. Matt Leinart: See Kitna. www.arizonacardinals.ws
22. Jake Delhomme www.carolinapanthers.ws
23. J.T. O'Sullivan: It won't happen, but 16 games under Mike Martz would equal a lot of garbage yards.
24. Jason Campbell: Steady growth doesn't equate to excitement in this format. www.washingtonredskins.ws
25. Philip Rivers www.sandiegochargers.ws

[SIZE=+1]Running Backs Highest Ceiling Ranks[/SIZE]

1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL]: His ceiling is in the record books. www.minnesotavikings.ws
2. LaDainian Tomlinson: He's already in the record books. www.sandiegochargers.ws
3. Frank Gore: TONS of ifs, but there is an MVP season buried within somewhere
4. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]
5. Brian Westbrook: 2007 was the ceiling ? and an awesome one.
6. Brandon Jacobs: Has chance to score 15+ times. www.newyorkgiants.ws
7. Marshawn Lynch www.buffalobills.ws
8. Joseph Addai: Highest floor in the league other than Tomlinson. www.indianapoliscolts.ws
9. Marion Barber: Hasn't reached his peak yet
10. Ryan Grant www.greenbaypackers.ws
11. Clinton Portis www.washingtonredskins.ws
12. Larry Johnson: Brodie Croyle and Kansas City's offensive line can only go so right. www.kansascitychiefs.ws
13. Selvin Young: He gets a huge boost in these rankings. He won't stay healthy all season, but he'll be a top-15 talent when he does.
14. Reggie Bush: PPR ceiling is in the top-five.
15. Jamal Lewis www.clevelandbrowns.ws
16. Laurence Maroney: Probably never going to be a 300-carry type, but touchdown potential is up there.
17. Jonathan Stewart: Still a three-down power back with potential to dominate touches. www.carolinapanthers.ws
18. Maurice Jones-Drew: Needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize potential, which we can't here. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
19. Darren McFadden: Boom or busty pick with excellent skills, but committee dims his potential. www.oaklandraiders.ws
20. Willis McGahee: Ray Rice is draining his TUP. www.baltimoreravens.ws
21. Ronnie Brown: It looks ugly now, but there is still a lot of talent there and it's a long season. www.miamidolphins.ws
22. Michael Turner: His long running plays could help make up for Atlanta's offense. www.atlantafalcons.ws
23. Matt Forte
24. Earnest Graham www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
25. Willie Parker
26. Thomas Jones: A classic high floor, low ceiling player.
27. Rudi Johnson: Boom or bust and we're heavily leaning towards bust.
28. Kevin Smith: I don't rank him nearly this high or trust him, but the opportunity is there. www.detroitlions.ws
29. LenDale White: Could score plenty behind an underrated line, but [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] lowers his ceiling. www.tennesseetitans.ws
30. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]: Ceiling is Reggie Bush's rookie year, with a better yards-per-carry.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Looking for value late
Rounds nine-through-16 of a recent PPR industry draft.

[SIZE=+1]Round Nine[/SIZE]

9.01. Anthony Gonzalez
9.02. Sidney Rice
9.03. Minnesota Vikings DEF
9.04. Justin Fargas www.oaklandraiders.ws
9.05. Chris Perry
9.06. Tony Scheffler
9.07. Chris Brown
9.08. Ray Rice www.baltimoreravens.ws
9.09. Devin Hester
9.10. Brett Favre www.newyorkjets.ws
9.11. Rotoworld: Vince Young www.tennesseetitans.ws
9.12. Owen Daniels

[SIZE=+1]Round Ten[/SIZE]

10.01. Seattle Seahawks DEF
10.02. Rotoworld: Patrick Crayton
10.03. Pierre Thomas
10.04. San Diego Chargers DEF
10.05. D.J. Hackett
10.06. Donte' Stallworth
10.07. Matt Leinart www.arizonacardinals.ws
10.08. New England Patriots DEF
10.09. Vernon Davis
10.10. Maurice Morris
10.11. Jake Delhomme www.carolinapanthers.ws
10.12. Reggie Brown

[SIZE=+1]Round Eleven[/SIZE]

11.01. Ahman Green
11.02. Jerious Norwood
11.03. Jon Kitna
11.04. Ahmad Bradshaw
11.05. Antonio Pittman
11.06. James Hardy
11.07. Dallas Cowboys DEF
11.08. Heath Miller
11.09. Aaron Rodgers
11.10. Steve Slaton
11.11. Rotoworld: Andre Hall
11.12. Jabar Gaffney

[SIZE=+1]Round Twelve[/SIZE]

12.01. Fred Jackson
12.02. Rotoworld: Ronald Curry
12.03. Deuce McAllister
12.04. Todd Heap
12.05. Kevin Walter
12.06. Kenny Watson
12.07. Ben Watson
12.08. Bobby Engram
12.09. Tim Hightower
12.10. Zach Miller
12.11. Sammy Morris
12.12. Isaac Bruce

[SIZE=+1]Round Thirteen[/SIZE]

13.01. Chicago Bears DEF
13.02. Robert Meachem
13.03. Jerry Porter
13.04. Reggie Williams
13.05. Philip Rivers
13.06. Ladell Betts
13.07. Deshaun Foster
13.08. Kurt Warner
13.09. Mark Clayton
13.10. Bryant Johnson
13.11. Rotoworld: Brandon Jackson
13.12. Justin Gage

[SIZE=+1]Round Fourteen[/SIZE]

14.01. Jason Cambpell
14.02. Rotoworld: Drew Bennett
14.03. Green Bay Packers DEF
14.04. Alge Crumpler
14.05. Deion Branch
14.06. Kevin Jones
14.07. Eddie Royal
14.08. L.J. Smith
14.09. Greg Olsen
14.10. Lorenzo Booker
14.11. Ben Utecht
14.12. Leon Washington

[SIZE=+1]Round Fifteen[/SIZE]

15.01. Devin Thomas
15.02. Michael Bush
15.03. Marty Booker
15.04. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] (CIN)
15.05. Amani Toomer
15.06. Trent Edwards
15.07. DeSean Jackson
15.08. Dominic Rhodes
15.09. Nick Folk
15.10. Muhsin Muhammed
15.11. Rotoworld: Derrick Ward
15.12. Ryan Longwell

[SIZE=+1]Round Sixteen[/SIZE]

16.01. David Patten
16.02. Rotoworld: Courtney Taylor
16.03. Randy McMichael
16.04. New York Giants DEF
16.05. Indianapolis Colts DEF
16.06. JaMarcus Russell
16.07. Josh Morgan
16.08. Adam Vinatieri
16.09. Tennessee Titans DEF
16.10. Laurent Robinson
16.11. James Jones
16.12. Stephen Gostkowski

[SIZE=+1]Round Seventeen[/SIZE]

17.01. Darrell Jackson
17.02. Jacksonville Jaguars DEF
17.03. Darius Walker
17.04. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF
17.05. Michael Bennett
17.06. New York Jets DEF
17.07. Ben Obomanu
17.08. Mason Crosby
17.09. Warrick Dunn
17.10. Robbie Gould
17.11. Rotoworld.com: Pittsburgh Steelers DEF
17.12. Jacob Hester

[SIZE=+1]Round Eighteen[/SIZE]

18.01. Justin McCareins
18.02. Rotoworld: Josh Scobee
18.03. Buffalo Bills DEF
18.04. Derek Hagan
18.05. Kevin Boss
18.06. Nate Kaeding
18.07. Neil Rackers
18.08. Josh Brown
18.09. Rob Bironas
18.10. Shayne Graham
18.11. Mike Nugent
18.12. Tatum Bell

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Mock Madness
There's no time to waste in draft season, so let's get right to the Mock Draft below. The draft is probably my favorite industry league draft during camp, the Site Owners Fantasy Association (SOFA). It took place Tuesday night, August 19th.

It is crucial to understand the league scoring system and starting requirements, because it greatly affects draft value. This is PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF, and 1 Kicker. Scoring is standard otherwise, with four points per passing touchdown.

Don't underestimate how heavily this format tilts towards receivers, especially because of the flex position. Unless you have three exceptional running back options, you should plan to start four wideouts every week. In this scoring system, players like Roddy White and Bobby Engram outscored Marion Barber and Willis McGahee last season. Using our <A href="http://www.rotoworld.com/premium/draftguide/football/cheatsheet_page.asp" 2008 projections< a>, Jerricho Cotchery outscores Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Johnson. Chris Chambers tops Laurence Maroney. That doesn't mean you should draft in that order (position scarcity still matters), but running backs will slip in this format.

Here are the results.

[SIZE=+1]Round One[/SIZE]

1.01. Fantasy Sharks: LaDainian Tomlinson www.sandiegochargers.ws
1.02. Fantasy Guru: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson www.minnesotavikings.ws [/URL]
1.03. The Huddle: Brian Westbrook
1.04. Rotowire: Joseph Addai www.indianapoliscolts.ws
1.05. FFMastermind: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]
1.06. FSP: Clinton Portis www.washingtonredskins.ws
1.07. Sports Weekly: Frank Gore
1.08. FFToday: Marshawn Lynch www.buffalobills.ws
1.09. FootballGuys: Marion Barber
1.10. KFFL: Larry Johnson www.kansascitychiefs.ws
1.11. Rotoworld: Randy Moss
1.12. Fantasy Insights: Terrell Owens

Trends, Etc: Westbrook usually goes ahead of Peterson in this format, but not always. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL]'s holdout hasn't hurt him yet, although I've seen him fall further in other drafts. ? There is always a Larry Johnson believer out there. He went about 15 picks too early in our view. ? Owners clearly believe Lynch will catch more passes this year. I was hoping to get him and a top receiver with my first two picks, but Lynch didn't fall. I happily took Randy Moss.

[SIZE=+1]Round Two[/SIZE]

2.01. Reggie Wayne
2.02. Rotoworld: Andre Johnson
2.03. Reggie Bush
2.04. Tom Brady
2.05. Ryan Grant www.greenbaypackers.ws
2.06. Peyton Manning www.indianapoliscolts.ws
2.07. Braylon Edwards
2.08. Maurice Jones-Drew
2.09. Larry Fitzgerald www.arizonacardinals.ws
2.10. Marques Colston
2.11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
2.12. Tony Romo

Trends, Etc: One of the hardest decisions of my draft was A.J. vs. Reggie Bush. It definitely changes the complexion of a team to go WR-WR in any format, no matter how many points they score. (Our optimistic projections for Johnson would place him as the RB5 in scoring.

Still, the top tier of wideouts is safe. I don't feel that way about Bush. I knew the top wideouts would be gone next time around. And frankly, it's a good idea to try different strategies in these "industry" leagues. There's sadly almost nothing at stake. Everyone in the draft would rather win their local leagues with friends and co-workers, which is how it should be. They certainly put more energy into it. Plus I had the right draft slot to go this route. ? Brady fell further than usual, but Peyton Manning's knee injury didn't scare people away. Three quarterbacks going in round two show the difference in how the industry views the position this season.

[SIZE=+1]Round Three[/SIZE]

3.01. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL]
3.02. Drew Brees
3.03. Santonio Holmes
3.04. Darren McFadden www.oaklandraiders.ws
3.05. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] (CAR) www.carolinapanthers.ws
3.06. Calvin Johnson www.detroitlions.ws
3.07. Torry Holt
3.08. Brandon Marshall
3.09. Brandon Jacobs www.newyorkgiants.ws
3.10. Jamal Lewis www.clevelandbrowns.ws
3.11. Rotoworld: Wills McGahee
3.12. Matt Forte

Trends, Etc: It was very surprising [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] didn't fall further because of his shoulder injury, which has a lot of mystery around it. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] and Brandon Marshall didn't get knocked much for their suspensions, which makes sense. ? I was disappointed Jacobs didn't fall two more spots. As you'll see later, this was a draft that I took the players with sinking stock. The guys no one wanted. McGahee would have gone in the mid-second round two weeks ago. There are definite concerns, but I was comfortable with the value here. ? Calvin Johnson's preseason hype is definitely affecting his status.

To practice your own Mock Drafts and see ADP data, head to our new site MockDrafts.Rotoworld.com.

[SIZE=+1]Round Four[/SIZE]

4.01. Wes Welker
4.02. Rotoworld: Anquan Boldin
4.03. Carson Palmer
4.04. Plaxico Burress
4.05. Ben Roethlisberger
4.06. Antonio Gates www.sandiegochargers.ws
4.07. Greg Jennings
4.08. Jason Witten
4.09. Laurence Maroney
4.10. Thomas Jones
4.11. Michael Turner www.atlantafalcons.ws
4.12. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL] (DET)

Trends, Etc: I really wanted Welker, but thought McGahee might go on the turn and running back was a bigger priority. I'm not remotely concerned about Boldin's contract displeasure. ? Gates' improving health rightly puts him first at tight end. ? Solid running back options like Maroney, Jones, and Turner fall late. ? Palmer is a good value a round or more later than Brees and Romo.

[SIZE=+1]Round Five[/SIZE]

5.01. Kellen Winslow
5.02. Dwayne Bowe
5.03. Earnest Graham
5.04. Roddy White
5.05. Jerricho Cotchery
5.06. Willie Parker
5.07. Lee Evans
5.08. LenDale White www.tennesseetitans.ws
5.09. Edgerrin James
5.10. Marvin Harrison
5.11. Rotoworld: Selvin Young
5.12. Kevin Smith www.detroitlions.ws

Trends, Etc: Once again, serviceable RB2/3 options continue to fall. ? Marvin Harrison is an excellent boom-or-bust pick at this stage. LenDale White goes two rounds in front of [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL], which is surprising. We have Johnson projected just ahead of White in PPR leagues, but both should be productive. ? Young has some boom-or-bust to him, but he can be a top-15 back while healthy.

[SIZE=+1]Round Six[/SIZE]

6.01. Tony Gonzalez
6.02. Rotoworld: Ronnie Brown www.miamidolphins.ws
6.03. Laveranues Coles
6.04. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL]
6.05. DeAngelo Williams
6.06. Rudi Johnson
6.07. Jonathan Stewart
6.08. Chris Chambers
6.09. Nate Burleson
6.10. Donald Driver
6.11. Hines Ward
6.12. Julius Jones

Trends, Etc: Definitely my gut check pick of the night. Jonathan Stewart and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] were there, and Stewart was very tough to pass on this late. The idea isn't to make popular picks in August; the idea is to win. And for a sixth-round pick, I believe Brown can make a huge difference in November and December when championships are decided. Perhaps I'm wrong, but don't afraid to make unpopular picks, no matter what they are.

There is only one certainty in fantasy football: The consensus is a moron. The consensus will look horribly, pathetically odd eight weeks from now. I've said this before, but no set of rankings could look half as crazy as what will actually happen. That's the beauty of sport. We can make our projections as educated as possible. But if we knew what would happen, it wouldn't be much fun.

With all that said, the Rudi Johnson and Nate Burleson picks this early made me shudder. Just like my Brown pick probably did for others. Rudi is going to split carries, if he's ever healthy enough to play. Burleson is in a great situation, but is an inconsistent talent. ? Interesting to see DeAngelo Williams and Stewart go closely together. Expect to see that in most drafts.

[SIZE=+1]Round Seven[/SIZE]

7.01. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]
7.02. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]
7.03. Donovan McNabb
7.04. Matt Schaub
7.05. Santana Moss
7.06. Jay Cutler
7.07. Fred Taylor
7.08. Joey Galloway www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
7.09. Bernard Berrian
7.10. Chris Cooley
7.11. Rotoworld: David Garrard www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
7.12. Chester Taylor

Trends, Etc: The running back talent starts to fall off a cliff after this round. Arguments can be made for Johnson, Ricky, and the Taylors as solid RB2/3 flex options. Chris Wesseling will tell anyone that will listen Johnson should have gone two rounds higher, and I hope he's proven right. The running backs after this round get risky. ? Looks like Rotoworld is not the only site with Matt Schaub fever. Cutler is in my tier of quarterbacks with Roethlisberger and McNabb, so I was very disappointed to see him go ahead of me. I didn't trust who would get back to me and went with my highest ranked remaining quarterback. ? Galloway, Berrian, and Moss all get hurt in PPR leagues because they won't rack up receptions.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eight[/SIZE]

8.01. Matt Hasselbeck
8.02. Rotoworld: Jeremy Shockey
8.03. Vincent Jackson
8.04. Derrick Mason
8.05. Javon Walker
8.06. Ted Ginn Jr.
8.07. Rashard Mendenhall
8.08. Eli Manning
8.09. Derek Anderson
8.10. Felix Jones
8.11. Dallas Clark
8.12. Marc Bulger

Trends, Etc: With Mason, Walker, and Ginn going off the board way too early, I'm feeling warm and fuzzies about having Boldin (our tenth-ranked PPR wideout) as my WR3. ? At this stage, I chose being strong at other positions rather than building running back depth. Felix Jones and Mendenhall aren't bad picks at all in this round. But Shockey gives me an every-week starter, a PPR gem in Sean Payton's system. May as well go all the way receiver. If I really need the help, the wideouts are good trading chips. ? Rotoworld isn't huge on Derek Anderson this season, but this is further than we've seen him fall. He's a fair value here.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Raise the Roof
Because Individual Defensive Players are so interchangeable, particularly defensive backs and linebackers, finding out which IDPs have the most upside is more important than it is for fantasy players on the opposite side of the ball. It's legitimately difficult to find an elite RB2 at midseason. It isn't hard to find a top-notch DB2.

Anybody can draft Cedric Griffin and anticipate 80 tackles, but one or no picks. This column takes into account those DBs, LBs, and DLs that can put it all together and give you production across the board while also posting massive tackle counts.

This is not a ranking of our top players at each position. Those can be found in the 2008 Rotoworld Draft Guide. Instead, this is a ranking of players with the highest ceilings. If you draft them and things go right for these guys, you should dominate your IDP league.

[SIZE=+1]Defensive Linemen Highest Ceiling Ranks[/SIZE]

1. Jared Allen, RE Vikings - Should be first player picked at any position in all IDP drafts.
2. Mario Williams, RE Texans - Another leap could set records. Only 23.
3. Justin Tuck, LE Giants - He'll replace Michael Strahan, and then some.
4. Julius Peppers, RE Panthers - Back at his natural position and in a contract year. Panthers changed from a read-and-react scheme to a penetrating defense.
5. Jason Taylor, LE Redskins - Will see time at both end spots, get more tackle chances now that he's mostly a strong-side end.
6. Kyle Vanden Bosch, RE Titans - When Albert Haynesworth plays next to you, you're automatically freed up.
7. Terrell Suggs, RE/ROLB Ravens - If he can combine his 9.5 sacks from '06 with his 78 tackles from '07, Suggs will be the NFL's richest defensive end in 2009.
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2539"]Justin Smith[/URL], RE/ROLB 49ers - Relentless and will blitz more than he did in Cincinnati while playing hands up.
9. Osi Umenyiora, RE Giants - Avoiding streakiness could result in 16-sack season.
10. Will Smith, RE Saints - Addition of Sedrick Ellis helps.
11. Trent Cole, RE Eagles - Brodrick Bunkley getting better next to him.
12. Patrick Kerney, LE Seahawks - Seahawks upgraded on the opposite side with first-round pick Lawrence Jackson.
13. Derrick Burgess, LE Raiders - Tommy Kelly will draw more double teams than Warren Sapp inside. Burgess is playing for a raise.
14. Gaines Adams, RE Bucs - Will rarely rotate out in a pressure-based scheme.
15. Ray Edwards, LE Vikings - Won't see an offensive chip all year with Jared Allen opposite him and Pat and Kevin Williams beside him.

[SIZE=+1]Linebackers Highest Ceiling Ranks[/SIZE]

1. David Harris, ILB Jets - Skilled blitzer, driven to be the best, gets added protection help from new NT Kris Jenkins.
2. Patrick Willis, ILB 49ers - Led NFL with 174 tackles last year despite playing with a broken hand for nine weeks. Incredible in pursuit and born to bury ball carriers.
3. Stewart Bradley, MLB Eagles - 130 tackles, 6 sacks isn't out of the question.
4. Jonathan Vilma, MLB Saints - Health is the only thing preventing Vilma from being a preseason top-five LB. Will be protected much better than he was in New York.
5. Will Witherspoon, MLB Rams - Rushes off the edge in Rams' 3-4 fronts.
6. London Fletcher, MLB Redskins - Calls the plays, benefits from WLB Rocky McIntosh slowing down.
7. Brian Urlacher, MLB Bears - Does a little bit of everything, lots of tackling.
8. DeMarcus Ware, OLB Cowboys - Has chance at an 80-tackle, 15-sack season.
9. Nick Barnett, MLB Packers - Successfully appealed one-game suspension. WLB AJ Hawk's injury could mean increased early-season tackle opportunities.
10. Kirk Morrison, MLB Raiders - Oakland's defense is run on so much he's a lock for 110 tackles. Makes tons of plays on coverage.
11. Chad Greenway, WLB Vikings - Now playing behind Jared Allen. Should emerge as Vikes' best linebacker.
12. Keith Rivers, WLB Bengals - Already best linebacker on his team, by a long shot.
13. D.J. Williams, WLB Broncos - Don't like that he's moving from the middle, but like that he'll play there on passing downs.
14. Ernie Sims, WLB Lions - Rarely blitzes, but could improve on his 134-tackle season if Detroit is on defense more. Expect more fumbles caused.
15. DeMeco Ryans, MLB Texans - Lacks as high a ceiling in big-play leagues, but Houston's offense will improve and he'll see more opportunities in coverage.
16. Adalius Thomas, ROLB Patriots - Will be more comfortable in his second year of Bill Belichick's scheme. Thomas rushes from the weak side and will play OLB full time.
17. Barrett Ruud, MLB Bucs - Wearing the defensive headset. Should improve in second stint as a full-time starter.
18. Thomas Davis, WLB Panthers - Excellent blitzer adds value on the weak side behind Julius Peppers.
19. Paul Posluszny, MLB Bills - Marcus Stroud helps in front of him, but Poz may not be a three-down 'backer.
20. Curtis Lofton, MLB Falcons - Not a lock to start on opening day; will come off on third down.

[SIZE=+1]Defensive Backs Highest Ceiling Ranks[/SIZE]

1. Roman Harper, SS Saints - Will be better a year removed from ACL surgery. A candidate to lead all DBs in tackles and coordinator Gary Gibbs loves blitzing him.
2. Gibril Wilson, SS Raiders - The backend of Oakland's defense is a tackle hotspot.
3. DeAngelo Hall, CB Raiders - Would be first if not for hand injury, which could cost him a few picks early.
4. Adrian Wilson, SS Cardinals - Virtual lock to be a top-five DB if he eeks out 16 games coming off a torn Achilles' tendon.
5. Yeremiah Bell, SS Dolphins - Five-category (TCK, FF, INT, SCK, PD) player if he can stay healthy.
6. Darrelle Revis, CB Jets - A 6-7 pick season is in his future. Also a sure tackler.
7. Bernard Pollard, SS Chiefs - Will play in the box, blitz more than last year.
8. Daniel Bullocks, SS Lions - Would be higher if not for lingering knee issues.
9. O.J. Atogwe, FS Rams - Easily the best player in St. Louis' secondary.
10. Leon Hall, CB Bengals - Good hands + willing tackler + entrenched starting job - shutdown ability = IDP stud.
11. Chris Harris, SS Panthers - Probably won't pop seven fumbles again, but he'll benefit from the added experience in Carolina's scheme.
12. Sean Jones, SS Browns - Four-category player in a contract season. Hopefully he doesn't have to help in coverage all year.
13. Quentin Jammer, CB Chargers - Playing full time opposite Antonio Cromartie, he'll have more interception opportunities.
14. Kenny Phillips, FS Giants - May be the best rookie defender in the league this season.
15. Brandon Flowers, CB Chiefs - First-rate ball skills and fills hard against the run.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

QB Tiers of Heaven
This is supposed to be the year of the quarterback in fantasy drafts. Committees and questions abound at running back. Many top wideouts are hurt, suspended, or disgruntled. So are we drafting quarterbacks differently?

Yes, but we're not getting carried away. According to the Average Draft Position (ADP) data at our brand new MockDrafts.Rotoworld.com site, three quarterbacks are going in the first two rounds. (Brady, Manning, Romo). Manning is often that high by himself.

Still, QB fever has its limits. Brady isn't cracking the top-five after throwing 50 touchdowns. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=591"]Drew Brees[/URL] usually goes in the third round, with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2550"]Carson Palmer[/URL] a solid value early in the fourth. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1181"]Ben Roethlisberger[/URL] goes later in the round. That makes six quarterbacks in the top-50 picks, when there usually would be four.

You don't have to draft a quarterback early to win. Position scarcity still devalues the position. You only need one starter, and there are guaranteed producers available throughout the middle rounds.

I see a huge drop-off after the first 17 quarterbacks, so owners that skip out on taking a top-five option should double up before the backups get gnarly in the late rounds.

Remember, the tiers below aren't static: To get updated tiers at every position until Week 1, show Rotoworld the love by checking out our draft guide with projections, profiles, and custom rankings for all players and leagues. Good luck this weekend!

Tier One: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1163"]Tom Brady[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1493"]Peyton Manning[/URL]

The dynamic duo face some injury questions late in camp. Brady is practicing, and the Patriots are likely just being cautious. Just remember that Brady's career high in touchdowns before last season was 28. While [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1655"]Randy Moss[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2964"]Wes Welker[/URL] change things, he'll be closer to 35 touchdowns than 50 again. We have a hard time taking a quarterback in the first round when position scarcity devalues the position. But Brady is worth the pick after the top 7 running backs are gone.

Manning sounds iffy for Week 1, but we'd be a lot more worried if he was recovering from a torn knee ligament. We doubt he will miss any game time. And even if he does miss a week, he's still Peyton freaking Manning. With [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1502"]Marvin Harrison[/URL] back, he's going to produce steady numbers. By taking Brady or Manning, you are betting on a wide gap with the rest of the position. That's what we see. Romo is not in this league yet. You are also guaranteeing you don't draft a bust. That's worth plenty.

Tier Two: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2550"]Carson Palmer[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2730"]Tony Romo[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=591"]Drew Brees[/URL]

Palmer was the QB1 as a 25-year old. While [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2544"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL][/URL][/URL] isn't 100%, the return of [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3167"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL][/URL][/URL] helps. Palmer could be undervalued playing behind a potentially dominant offensive line. Romo is prone to the occasional stinker, but his aggressiveness makes up for it. Brees should throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts. Both Brees and Romo will throw a high volume of passes.

We see these three as early picks (rounds three-to-four), although they are likely to go higher. Palmer will be a nice value if he falls to round four or five. If you get a quarterback from the top two tiers, you can wait until late in the draft to take a QB2.

Tier Three: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1181"]Ben Roethlisberger[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=704"]Donovan McNabb[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3608"]Jay Cutler[/URL]

The quarterback tiers are rather small this season. That's just how the projections landed ? there was a huge gap after Cutler. These are the last quarterbacks we see as every-week starters with potential to finish in the top-three.

McNabb is another year removed from ACL surgery. He needs more touchdowns to go with his yards, while Big Ben needs more yards. We worry about his touchdowns declining if the Steelers improve their red zone running. Cutler is our favorite value QB1. He was ranked this high before we knew he lost 25 pounds during 2007 because of diabetes. Plenty of Rotoworld readers will own him this season, and they won't be disappointed. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3653"]Brandon Marshall[/URL]'s two game suspension is a relatively minor knock. We're convinced Cutler will be the next great quarterback in the NFL. We see these three quarterbacks as relatively interchangeable on draft day.

They are mid-round (6-7) values, although Cutler will slip further than the other two. If you aren't comfortable mixing and matching your QB1, get one from the first three tiers.

Tier Four: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1483"]David Garrard[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3233"]Derek Anderson[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=519"]Matt Hasselbeck[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=16"]Matt Schaub[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1657"]Eli Manning[/URL]

Every-week starting potential in this tier, but there are questions. Garrard is more explosive than you think, but his low pass attempts hurt. Hasselbeck's receivers are hurt, young, or shaky. We moved him down a spot because of his back problems. Anderson is a boom-or-bust pick that could finish in the top-five or lose his job by November. He and Hasselbeck are potential busts. Schaub, like Cutler, threw for a ton of yards-per-attempt, but didn't score enough. He's a top ten talent with big injury concerns. He's our favorite QB2 pick. Eli was great in the playoffs, but the same 'ol player before that. He needs to prove he can be new Eli over a 16-game schedule. He's still reliable enough to count on 3,500 yards, 16 games, and 20+ scores. That's nothing to sneeze at.

These are the last of the high ceiling QB1/2s. If you don't get a quarterback from the top three tiers, you could double up here and still be strong enough at the position.

Tier Five: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3602"]Vince Young[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=369"]Marc Bulger[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1744"]Brett Favre[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3118"]Aaron Rodgers[/URL]

Our favorite QB2s. Rodgers is set up for success in Green Bay, while Young may not come this cheaply in a while. All Young has to do is modestly improve his passing, and his rushing stats will carry his value. We aren't projecting a huge rebound from Bulger because his teammates look shaky. Favre's numbers are going to decline in a new system with inferior talent around him. Remember his numbers from 2005-2006.

If you don't get a top-six quarterback, you ideally want a high ceiling backup from this group.

Tier Six: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3137"]Jason Campbell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1813"]Philip Rivers[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3138"]Matt Leinart[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=28"]Jon Kitna[/URL]

These four could be a tier above, but the statistical drop-off was too great. That's mostly because of playing time or injury concerns. Campbell is the exception, but he's been inconsistent as a pro and is learning another new system. He still should take a step forward towards being a solid QB2. Rivers was ordinary last season when he was healthy, and we expect a decline coming off a torn ACL. Leinart has upside, but also job security issues. So does Kitna if the Lions don't win. His pass attempts are going to take a big drop. These four are worth reaching for after the first nine rounds.

Tier Seven: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2398"]Jake Delhomme[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2570"]Jeff Garcia[/URL], J.T. O'Sullivan, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4220"]Trent Edwards[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3708"]Tarvaris Jackson[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4154"]JaMarcus Russell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3619"]Brodie Croyle[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3214"]Kyle Orton[/URL]

We'll believe that Delhomme comes back the same player after Tommy John surgery when we see it. His accuracy was erratic before. Everyone else either lacks experience or has playing time questions. Garcia is an injury risk and his play tailed off badly last year. Jackson is certainly set up for success, but hasn't shown signs that he'll take advantage. Edwards will be a good NFL quarterback, but won't be a great fantasy option yet. O' Sullivan is a fun late QB2 pick. He probably won't keep the job all season, but he could rack up some Kitna-lite garbage yards (and picks) while he sticks around. Orton and Croyle are the bottom of the barrel of quarterbacks expected to play most of the season.

Tier Eight: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4637"]Matt Ryan[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=858"]Chad Pennington[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4166"]Troy Smith[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1256"]Kurt Warner[/URL] [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2450"]Rex Grossman[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4684"]Chad Henne[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2241"]Chris Redman[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4677"]Joe Flacco[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3119"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL]

Ryan, Pennington, O'Sullivan, and Smith are all likely to start Week 1. Ryan is the best bet to finish the season still a starter. Pennington can help the Dolphins, but will give way to Henne eventually. Smith will give way to Flacco or [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2256"]Kyle Boller[/URL]. Warner is projected for fewer points than some here, but would be the best fantasy option if he started. He's an interesting handcuff option for Leinart owners in deep leagues. No one else has that high a ceiling.

Tier Nine: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4149"]Brady Quinn[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1276"]Sage Rosenfels[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=13"]Luke McCown[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2256"]Kyle Boller[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4535"]Matt Moore[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4179"]Drew Stanton[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1224"]Gus Frerotte[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2780"]J.P. Losman[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1350"]Trent Green[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1393"]Todd Collins[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2311"]Kerry Collins[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4151"]Kevin Kolb[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4284"]Tyler Thigpen[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1216"]Shaun Hill[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1478"]Byron Leftwich[/URL]

The most interesting true backups. They would be worth a look if they got playing time. Because of their offenses, Quinn, Rosenfels, and Kolb would be the best options.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Last Minute Cramming
My friend Bob emailed a few days ago looking for all the big stories he needed to catch up on before heading to draft day. I was taken aback he wasn't keeping up to date with our non-stop news scroll. It appears the rest of America doesn't always share my fascination with the daily ups-and-downs of Chris Perry.

There are jobs to go to, families to take care of, and (gasp) other sports. The folks here at NBC seem distracted by this whole "Olympics" phenomenon, which thankfully didn't get in my way Thursday night. J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Kyle Orton, baby!

For all the Bobs out there, get caught up below with the 30 essential news items to know before your draft this weekend. True newshounds can probably skip this article.

And to all Bobs out there that haven't bought our online draft guide: Draft day will get much easier with our up-to-the-minute rankings, projections, cheat sheets, and tiers.

1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL]'s shoulder is a mystery

Ocho Cinco off-season of distcontent ended with him at training camp on time. He also got back on the field quickly following off-season ankle surgery. Just when it looked like one of the most reliable fantasy assets of the decade cemented his second-round status, a shoulder injury in the preseason knocked him to uncertainty again.

No one knows when Johnson will be back. That's partly why [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL] is back on the team, even if Henry isn't eligible to play until Week 5. There is some fear that Johnson could miss a big chunk of the season, and some optimism out there that he'll be back before Week 1. That makes him a risky pick for this weekend's drafters. Plan on him missing a few games, and be pleasantly surprised if he's ready to play right away.

2. Rudi rebound already in trouble

Rudi Johnson looked broken down in 2007 while trying to play through a hamstring injury. The same problem has kept him out for nearly all of training camp, allowing Chris Perry to pass him on the depth chart. Perry has his own long injury history, but he's now our top-ranked Bengals back. Johnson's Average Draft Position in the fifth round is about five rounds too high. We'd rather take Kenny Watson as a deep reserve pick.

3. Marvin Harrison is more likely to play in Week 1 than Peyton Manning www.indianapoliscolts.ws
That's one of those scandalous headlines to make you click on an article. Except you have already clicked on this one, so it's just pointless. Both players have a chance to play in the opener, but Harrison is far safer. Harrison's legal problems have magically disappeared, and his knee has looked good in the preseason. Don't expect the old Harrison, but he looks undervalued in the fourth round.

Manning, on the other hand, has recovered slowly from a procedure to remove an infected bursa sac from his left knee. His status for Week 1 won't be certain until the week of the game. There are a lot "whispers" surrounding Manning's recovery that suggest the Colts are more concerned long-term than they are letting on, but it could be normal NFL gossip. We'll know more when we see if he practices or not next week. If you can't wait that long to find out, we wouldn't knock Manning too far in the draft. He's still Peyton Manning.

4. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL] won't go for 221 yards again anytime soon

Last year's number one [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL] is expected to miss at least half the season after undergoing sports hernia surgery. This is an injury that tends to linger, so it's hard to imagine stashing him before the last few rounds on draft day.

With Reggie Brown also banged-up, rookie DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett will see more throws. Just like the old days of Pinkston and Thrash, the Eagles receivers aren't worth taking early.

5. Ricky Freaking Williams passed Ronnie Brown on the depth chart
www.miamidolphins.ws
With six NFL carries in the last three seasons, Ricky is fresh! He's looked it during an impressive string of practices and preseason efforts. He probably won't stay healthy for long, but it would be a surprise if Williams doesn't get more carries than Brown in September. Brown is still exceedingly talented and will be ready to play Week 1. We bet on Brown having more fantasy value than Williams over the course of the season.

6. Antonio Gates is on track
www.sandiegochargers.ws
With more than two weeks to go before the opener, Gates was back on the practice field in San Diego. He quickly participated in team drills, which would support Gates' belief he'll be ready for Week 1. Take Gates ahead of Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, although the gap has closed.
<!--RW-->
7. Willis McGahee is iffy for Week 1
www.baltimoreravens.ws
McGahee underwent arthroscopic surgery on August 11, allowing rookie Ray Rice to impress everyone surrounding the Ravens. Both the team and player believe McGahee will be ready for the season opener, although he'll probably lose some carries to Rice early in the season. Other players have returned from the same surgery in less time.

We're more concerned with McGahees teammates (Troy Smith is the favorite to start at quarterback, the offensive line is banged-up) than his knee. The Ravens organization also wants McGahee in his playbook more. Rice looks like one of the better true backups to own.

8. Ryan Grant has barely seen a football field all offseason
www.greenbaypackers.ws
I wrote about this in my blog at length, so I won't repeat myself too much here. But it seems odd that more owners aren't concerned with a potential first-round pick that held out during OTAs and has been hurt all camp.

8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] hype could power a third world country
www.tennesseetitans.ws
I'm becoming a prime contributor. Johnson was initially seen as a third-down back, but he's earned a bigger role in the Titans offense. The speed merchant has the game to play on any down. Bet on LenDale White leading the Titans in carries, but Johnson will nearly match his touches because of his work in the passing game. This will be a close committee. Both Titans backs could be good values in drafts, like a cheaper version of the Jaguars.

9. The Seattle passing game is full of questions

Bobby Engram, the only reliable Seahawks receiver, is out until Week 5 with a cracked shoulder. Deion Branch may be out longer, and Matt Hasselbeck has barely practiced all month because of a back injury. Someone has to fill the void, and Courtney Taylor is our favorite sleeper of the young Seattle wideouts.

10. DeAngelo Williams is the favorite to start in Carolina
www.carolinapanthers.ws
This is a big weekend for Jonathan Stewart, Carolina's first-round pick at running back. The power back needs to prove he's ready for a big early-season role after a shaky camp. Williams, Carolina's first-round pick two years ago, has run decisively and earned a starting job. Since Stewart is more likely to play on the goal line, he still has the biggest upside. Like Ronnie Brown, we project the Week 1 backup to be the most valuable by fantasy playoff time.

11. J.T. O'Sullivan is the next Jon Kitna. He hopes.

Of all these headlines, this one would have surprised me the most a month ago. The definition of a journeyman (seven teams in five years), O'Sullivan has passed former number overall pick [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL] on the depth chart. In Mike Martz's pass-happy offense, there is some fun late QB2 upside here. Just don't expect him to start all 16 games.

Who JTO will throw to is still a mystery other than Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce. Rookie Josh Morgan could start in Week 1 and is a nice keeper league pick. Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle have been hurt most of the preseason.

12. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL] returned in time from his holdouts

Like most holdouts, this got too much attention. Jackson returned with plenty of time to get ready for Week 1, just like everyone knew he would. He's our third pick in standard scoring leagues.

13. Brandon Marshall and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL] are suspended for the first two games www.carolinapanthers.ws

You'd have to be under a Ted Washington-sized rock to miss this, but you never know. These two are still top-10 receivers when they play, so the should go in the third and fourth round. Just a little patience ?

14. Eddie Royal will start for the Broncos

While other hyped rookie wideouts like Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, James Hardy, and Donnie Avery struggle, Royal has earned a starting job in Denver. He'll probably keep it when Marshall returns from suspension, putting Darrell Jackson on the bench.

15. Javon Walker could lose his starting job

Walker tried to retire at one point during camp. He doesn't seem right mentally or physically, and coach Lane Kiffin indicated he could bench the big free agent acquisition. We wouldn't draft him with Bea Arthur's team.

16. Chad Pennington will open against the Jets in Week 1
www.miamidolphins.ws
This hasn't been confirmed officially, but the Dolphins will roll with Pennington early in the season. That should help the whole offense, but don't expect Pennington to last the season. Rookie Chad Henne has been impressive.

17. Kevin Smith should be Detroit's Week 1 starter at running back
www.detroitlions.ws
He's still coming off a 450-carry season in college and playing behind a shaky offensive line. But Smith has rendered Tatum Bell useless enough that the former Broncos may not make the team.

18. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will split carries

This could be truest running back committee in the league. Both players can play all three downs, and they are fully expected to take turns with the first-team offense in Seattle. One drive at a time.

19. Deuce McAllister should make the Saints

I had my doubts about McAllister, who is one of my all-time favorite Saints. He is still coming off microfracture and ACL surgery, and the odds are long that he'll stay healthy for the year. Still, McAllister has played in the preseason and looks on track to share the work with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas in Week 1.

20. No news is good news for Selvin Young

Denver's depth chart at running back remained refreshingly unchanged all camp. Selvin Young is number one and Andre Hall is his backup. The team hopes promising rookie Ryan Torain can return from elbow surgery by mid-season.

And 10 more quickies?

21. Kevin Jones should be healthy enough to backup Matt Forte in Chicago.
22. The Bears plan to rotate their top receivers, ruining any possible fantasy value.
23. The Patriots plan to keep five running backs, making the roles of LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris uncertain.
24. Jerry Porter plans to return to practice next week, which would get him ready for Week 1. Reggie Williams has already returned from knee surgery in Jacksonville.
25. Rookie Tim Hightower is Edgerrin James' new backup.
26. Ernest Wilford is now the fourth receiver in Miami.
27. Bills All Pro tackle Jason Peters is still a holdout, which is a big concern for the Bills offense.
28. It's only the preseason, but Marc Bulger has thrown 23 passes for 85 yards in two games with terrible protection.
29. Shawne Merriman has a knee injury that could threaten his season.
30. Brett Favre un-retired. We think.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Stumped? Take Schaub
The intention here is not to overrate the preseason; it's something any knowledgeable football fan would preach against. For the most part these stats are meaningless. Marcus Mason leads the NFL in rushing, but he's a fourth-stringer without an obvious future. Brett Ratliff is the league's top passer, but wasn't even that good at Utah. Undrafted Colts rookie Jordan Senn is tops in preseason tackles. He doesn't have a profile at NFL Draft Scout or wikipedia, and I thought they had everybody.

However, it is exciting to see first-team skill players dominate first-team defenses, even if the defenses they're facing are vanilla. As I wrote last week, Calvin Johnson has done his damage in just four offensive series against Giants and Bengals starting cornerbacks.

Another starter who's lit it up is Matt Schaub. Schaub started shaky at Dallas on Friday night, battling through a string of errant throws, but finished 15-of-27 for 166 yards and an 11-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Walter. He's now completed 68.8% of his attempts for 382 yards, three scores, and no picks.

Some may view it as inevitable success against defenses that aren't game planning, others as a sign of things to come. In Schaub's case, we'd lean towards the latter for five reasons:

1. Houston's receiver corps is among the AFC's best, and has continuity and depth. Catch-first TE Owen Daniels is ready for a third-year leap. Andre Johnson is a top-three talent at the position. Walter, leading the Texans in preseason receiving, looks quicker than ever and combines big hands with run-after-catch ability. Andre' Davis provides explosiveness in reserve and Football Outsiders favorite David Anderson is coming on. All six Texans tailbacks can catch.

2. Houston's secondary will force the offense to keep up. This defensive back corps is going to be bad. Cowboys castoff Jacques Reeves wouldn't even have made Dallas' roster this year had they retained him. He's now the Texans' starting RCB and leads the team in tackles, not something you want your cornerbacks to do. The Texans don't have good cover safeties and will be without top CB Dunta Robinson (torn ACL, hamstring) until Week 7. They'll surrender a lot of points.

3. Schaub is playing with urgency after aggressive backup Sage Rosenfels' late-year run in 2007. That's not to say Schaub has a short leash; far from it. The Texans traded two second-round picks (the most valuable commodities in front office football) and took a move down in the 2007 draft for Schaub, then signed him to a six-year, $48 million deal. But Houston was offered Minnesota's third-round pick for Rosenfels this offseason and wouldn't budge. Schaub feels some heat, and we see that as a good thing. He'll make that contract look like chump change by season's end.

4. The Texans' backfield is in shambles and doesn't have a reliably effective member. Chris Brown and Ahman Green are hurt. Rookie Steve Slaton has change-of-pace potential, but isn't a three-down option yet. Chris Taylor is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and won't make anyone miss. Darius Walker isn't even getting a look and Marcel Shipp is a plodder. To move the rock, the Texans will have to pass.

5. Schaub is remarkably accurate and loves to go vertical, dating back to his days as a Virginia Cav. His career yards-per-attempt average is 7.3. For perspective, Tom Brady's is 7.2, Donovan McNabb's is 6.8, Brett Favre's is 7.0, and Carson Palmer equals Schaub at 7.3. Keep in mind sample size, but Schaub has always been aggressive and his YPA will only improve.

Schaub got nicked up last year and that keeps his Average Draft Position low. He's going as the QB16, behind far less recommended signal callers Philip Rivers (toughest schedule for passers in the league), Brett Favre (new offense), Marc Bulger (shell-shock concerns), and Matt Hasselbeck (back woes, revamped receivers). We have Schaub as the QB12. He's an ideal value in the tenth round of drafts.

Before you check the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide to look up Schaub's projections, read these notes from around the American Football Conference...

Baltimore - Willis McGahee (knee surgery) still can't run and is very iffy for the opener. Get ready to use Ray Rice in a flex spot against the Bengals...Coach John Harbaugh says Joe Flacco is back in the mix to start Week 1. Don't buy it. They can't throw him in there with construction worker/offensive tackle Chad Slaughter on the blind side...Baltimore's secondary appears primed to take a big step back this year, at least early on. FS Ed Reed (shoulder) still hasn't faced contact and may not face Cincinnati. CBs Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are also at less than full strength and both are over 31. GM Ozzie Newsome's inability to draft well at corner is showing and the Ravens will be a good fantasy matchup.

Buffalo - Early speculation is that Bills T Langston Walker broke his forearm on Sunday. Walker, quite possibly the team's best run blocker and a 6'8/370-pound beast, has been filling in at left tackle in place of holdout Jason Peters. The Bills' tackle situation is a concern for Marshawn Lynch. We'll know more Monday...Rookie James Hardy is going as high as the ninth round in 10-team drafts. Hardy's long-term projection is swell, but he won't do much between the 20s this season in a conservative run-first offense while playing in a likely rotation with incumbent Josh Reed...Lee Evans is running shorter routes for new coordinator Turk Schonert and leads the Bills with nine preseason catches for 88 yards.

Cincinnati - Carson Palmer broke his nose in the third exhibition, but he'll start at Baltimore in Week 1. Whether he'll have [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL] (shoulder) is uncertain, but Ocho Cinco vows to play and the Bengals say he's healed faster than expected. It could go down to the wire...Chris Perry would start at tailback if the season began today. His YPC so far (3.4) is weak, but Perry has faced stacked fronts with T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamstring) and Johnson sidelined and is running with authority. Don't be surprised if Rudi Johnson is part of Saturday's final cutdowns...Housh says he'll be back practicing this week...[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]'s return from suspension could sap TE Ben Utecht's fantasy value from Week 5 on.

Cleveland - The stitches in Braylon Edwards' foot shouldn't affect his fantasy draft status. We project him to post an 83-1230-14.8-12 line for the season. His TDs will likely come back to earth after last year's 16...Brady Quinn had a chance to put pressure on Derek Anderson Saturday, but didn't. D.A. should be on a relatively long leash to open the year...Donte' Stalloworth is averaging only 6.7 yards per catch through three preseason games. Coordinator Rob Chudzinski will have him focus on shorter routes with Edwards as the deep threat...The Lions should've never traded Shaun Rogers. The guy is dominant.

Denver - The team believes Brandon Marshall's 2-3 game suspension could be reduced to one. His appeal will be heard this week. Marshall is on fire, pacing Denver with 10 preseason catches for 139 yards and two scores. Don't let him get to the fourth round of your draft...Selvin Young and Andre Hall are running strong, averaging 4.3 and 4.7 YPC respectively through three exhibitions. Hall is the slight favorite for goal-line work...Jay Cutler hasn't been sacked yet. LT Ryan Clady is an NFL-ready rookie on his blind side and Cutler is killing with a 69.8 completion rate and an 8.2 YPA with a 3:0 TD to INT ratio. Consider drafting him before Donovan McNabb following [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=378"]Kevin Curtis[/URL]' injury...Tony Scheffler has one catch in the preseason...Smallish rookie Eddie Royal is having trouble releasing from the jam and may lose return duties because he's starting on offense.
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Houston - Matt Schaub is showing why he projects to be the best value at QB in fantasy drafts. I covered Schaub in my intro, but if he can stay healthy he can be this year's Ben Roethlisberger...Andre Johnson returned from a slight groin injury and started Friday's exhibition. He's 100% and our No. 2 fantasy receiver...The Texans' backfield remains muddled. Chris Brown (back, knee) is hurt again and Ahman Green (groin) remains shelved. At least one of them will be cut by Saturday. The only Houston RB I'd pick is Steve Slaton, in the middle of PPR drafts...2007 pop sleeper Jacoby Jones is officially a fifth receiver...The Texans will be a great matchup for passing games this year. LCB Fred Bennett doesn't look good and RCB Jacques Reeves is shaping up as this year's Jason David.

Indianapolis - The Colts opened Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday with Peyton Manning in a baseball hat and collared shirt. There are indications that he will miss Week 1 due to a routine knee surgery, but the Colts seem encouraged with his recovery. That he's appearing in public is a good sign. He should certainly be the second fantasy QB picked...I noticed an interesting strategy by Gregg Rosenthal in a recent draft; he stole Marvin Harrison (who's healthy and flying around again) in the sixth round, then "handcuffed" him with Anthony Gonzalez in the 11th. Not a bad idea...Dominic Rhodes sewed up the primary backup job behind Joseph Addai weeks ago. Rookie Mike Hart will likely be third on the depth chart. Kenton Keith won't make it.

Jacksonville - The Jags' receiver corps should be intact on opening day. Jerry Porter (hamstring) is due back this week and Reggie Williams (knee) played in Saturday's preseason game. Porter missed all of training camp, and since he's learning a new offense, may begin the season slow...Maurice Jones-Drew sprained his ankle this weekend. Keep an eye on it...Rotoworld Top Prospect Mike Walker has seven preseason grabs for 75 yards. He and Matt Jones could rotate with Williams enough that the three might cancel each other out...The stock of the Jags' fantasy defense drops every day that Derrick Harvey's holdout continues. Jacksonville might not have one defender top five sacks this season.

Kansas City - "Their draft was awesome, man" was a common theme about the Chiefs this spring, but this team going to stink. While Herm Edwards and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey could eek out some sleep-induced wins (or 0-0 ties) by boring foes to death, perhaps no roster is as short on talent. GM Carl Peterson needs to watch the waiver wire this coming weekend...Brodie Croyle will be in a short leash to start the season. Look for Tyler Thigpen after the Chiefs' Week 6 bye...Rookie Will Franklin underwent knee surgery Saturday, locking Devard Darling into the second receiver role. Whoever is at QB for K.C. should overload Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe with targets...Kolby Smith looks to have regained his job as the No. 2 tailback after an in-camp scare from Jackie Battle. Jamaal Charles is out of Texas, but still fumbling.

Miami - Chad Pennington will be the Fins' Week 1 QB, but may not last long because rookie Chad Henne is ready. Miami's bye is in Week 4. A switch could happen early...Ronnie Brown won't be cut or traded, but he's clearly behind [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL] on the depth chart and may feel pressure from rookie Jalen Parmele, who had an 80-yard TD run on Saturday night. Parmele will likely go back with Ted Ginn Jr. on kick returns this season...Anthony Fasano is locked in as the starter at tight end...With Jets RCB Justin Miller possibly out for the clubs' Week 1 matchup, Ginn could have a big game against fill-in rookie Dwight Lowery. Lowery can make plays on the ball but won't be able to run with the Dolphins' speedster.

New England - Tom Brady's sore foot isn't a concern. He'll start vs. Kansas City in Week 1 and should rip that secondary apart...LaMont Jordan hasn't played in the Pats' last two preseason games and is a candidate to be cut Tuesday. Sammy Morris appears set to back up Laurence Maroney again...Jabar Gaffney has held off Chad Jackson and will start at split end...Wes Welker suffered a rib injury in the team's third preseason game. We may never know the extent of the injury because New England is so secretive, but wouldn't bump him down draft boards.

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New York - There are whispers that Thomas Jones has lost a step. The Jets' line play is improved, but Jones hasn't been productive in the preseason...Jerricho Cotchery is the favorite to be Brett Favre's target of choice this year. Cotchery has a high fantasy ceiling in what could be a pass-first offense...First-round pick Vernon Gholston hasn't passed Bryan Thomas on the depth chart at weak outside linebacker. He's looked good against the run, but isn't ready to be an impact pass rusher just yet...The battle at third receiver is ongoing between Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey, but Stuckey has the edge because he's a better weapon in the slot.

Oakland - The loss of Drew Carter locks Ronald Curry in as the starting flanker. The Raiders will run more than they pass, but Curry and Zach Miller should be 1-2 in catches when the season is done...Miller is a TE1 in the making. He's pacing Oakland in preseason receiving and had an awesome diving TD catch in the exhibition opener...JaMarcus Russell needs to improve his footwork and accuracy. He's also taking too many sacks...Darren McFadden has 36 preseason carries (4.4 YPC) to Justin Fargas' nine (3.4 YPC). The regular season split won't be so gigantic, but McFadden is going to play the most.

Pittsburgh - Willie Parker is losing third-down duty to Mewelde Moore. As for short-yardage work, Parker got a carry on second-and-one in the team's third exhibition but it was negated by penalty. Rashard Mendenhall executed on a second-and-two, but fumbled twice in the game. The battle for goal-line carries rages on...Santonio Holmes has added punt returning to his No. 1 receiver chores...Heath Miller is an elite NFL tight end, but could wind up blocking more than he runs routes this season to assist Pittsburgh's shaky offensive tackles...A leg injury to ILB Larry Foote could open the door for Lawrence Timmons to pass him on the depth chart.

San Diego - If he knows what's best, Shawne Merriman won't play this year. I don't see this being as big a loss for San Diego as Osi Umenyiora's is to the Giants, but it's a very big deal nonetheless. A healthy Merriman in his second year of coordinator Ted Cottrell's scheme could've gotten 15 sacks, easy...Antonio Gates (foot) is making great strides and could be all systems go for the Bolts' opener...Rookie Jacob Hester is the heavy favorite to back up LaDainian Tomlinson, but keep an eye on what transpires Monday night...The Chargers' passing game faces the league's toughest strength of schedule this season.

Tennessee - Vince Young has completed just 43.2% of his passes with a 4.2 YPA so far in the preseason. He's learning a new system and will improve every week, but should be expected to start slow. Encouraging is his yards-per-carry average (11.1)...Rookie homerun hitter [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL] started the third preseason game with LenDale White nursing a minor injury, running for 35 yards on 11 totes. We hoped for more on the Georgia Dome turf, but he'll still play quite a bit this year...No. 2 tight end Bo Scaife is leading the team in preseason receiving and is a threat to Alge Crumpler's passing-down snaps...David Thornton remains the best Tennessee linebacker to target in IDP leagues. He'll wear the defensive headset. Keith Bulluck is showing his age

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Still down with ADP
This is the biggest draft week of the year, so let's get a couple housekeeping notes out of the way and get to some Average Draft Position (ADP) trends and news items.

For those who asked, we'll be posting NFC Notes, Top 10 Vultures, Mock Draft analysis, and more high ceiling ranks during the week. Tiffany Simons and I will also be hosting our first Fantasy Fix Live show of the year Thursday at noon. Call us with your questions. Our season position and team previews are available here.</B>

***

I'm going to take a look at some recent news and draft trends through the prism of our ADP data at MockDraft.Rotoworld.com. Drafts are starting every couple minutes, and this data only comes from drafts taken place since Saturday, so it should reflect the current state of Fantasy Nation.

The Boom-or-Bust RB2s

Ryan Grant: 2.07 ADP www.greenbaypackers.ws
Reggie Bush: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Jacobs: 3.10 ADP www.newyorkgiants.ws
Laurence Maroney: 4.03 ADP
Michael Turner: 4.05 ADP
Selvin Young: 5.07 ADP

RB2s are always risky. At least you won't have to pay as much this season. Bush and Jacobs were going much higher last season and their situations haven't changed. Both have the talent to out produce this draft slot. The Train is a bargain at that price.

Maroney looks about right. The Patriots are likely to keep his touches inconsistent as they attempt to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Turner's offense will hold him back, but he has big play potential. Young is going to produce like a top-15 running back as long as he stays healthy. This is a nice-looking price. Willie Parker isn't on this list because the boom potential is eroding.

The Bengals backfield morass

Rudi Johnson: 6.02 ADP
Kenny Watson: 9.10 ADP
Chris Perry: 11.01 ADP

While Rudi is trending down, it's not happening nearly fast enough. With news that he is being shopped for a possible trade, there's a decent chance he'll cut.

That means a lot of carries for Perry and Watson. While Watson and Perry are trending up, they aren't going high enough. Perry is a huge risk because he's only been healthy enough for 73 career carries, but it's a risk worth taking much earlier than the eleventh round. Our Monday night draft guide update pushed Perry into the top-35 running backs, a seventh-round value. Watson moved up and is a great reserve pick at this price. He'll clean up after Perry and Johnson get hurt. We have Rudi pegged in the twelfth round, making him one of the biggest busts to avoid. That projection may move down by the time you read this.

Committee Time

LenDale White: 6.04 ADP www.tennesseetitans.ws
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4743"]Chris Johnson[/URL]: 8.05 ADP

The Tennessee offensive line is good enough to make both backs solid values at these prices. White will lose touches, but still could nab 250 carries and plenty of scores. Johnson has earned a ton of high leverage carries. His hype isn't out of control at this price. I drafted him out of the top-110 in a recent draft.

Jonathan Stewart: 5.08 ADP www.carolinapanthers.ws
DeAngelo Williams: 7.05 ADP

This was a surprise. In nearly all the industry drafts I've taken part in, Williams went ahead of Stewart. The veteran has clearly enjoyed the strong preseason and should start in Week 1. I'm still backing Stewart, especially at this price. My belief in his potential has shown up in the rankings all summer, and his huge performance over the weekend eased fears about his toe. He's going to score more touchdowns than Williams. I'd bet on him getting more touches in the end. He's the ideal RB3.

Ronnie Brown: 5.03 ADP www.miamidolphins.ws
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1312"]Ricky Williams[/URL]: 7.08 ADP

These numbers have tightened up the last two weeks. While I've seen Ricky go higher than Brown occasionally, these spots match up closely with Rotoworld's ranks. It's a long season, and we'll take our chances with Brown outlasting Williams.

Ahman Green: 9.08 ADP
Chris Brown: 11.08 ADP
Steve Slaton: 12.09 ADP
Chris Taylor: Off the board

One of these guys will be a starting running back playing for the Godfather of Zone Blocking, Alex Gibbs. Brown and Green could potentially start or get cut. Don't trust Green to stay healthy for long, even at this spot. Slaton is proving that he's more than a third-down back and is a great mid-to-late-round pick. Taylor has an outside chance to start in Week 1 and be Houston's goal line back and he's not even getting taken. I like him in deep leagues. A committee of Slaton and Taylor wouldn't surprise.

The Hall of Famers

Tom Brady: 1.06 ADP
Peyton Manning: 2.03 ADP www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Preseason injuries aren't scaring people away. We have Manning pegged at the end of round two, but he's been there all along.

The Franchise Quarterbacks

Tony Romo: 2.07 ADP
Drew Brees: 2.11 ADP
Carson Palmer: 4.02 ADP
Ben Roethlisberger: 4.10 ADP

It hasn't been a great camp for Palmer, but the gap in his draft slot shouldn't be this large. I like the top receivers and most of the talented second running backs like Brandon Jacobs more than Romo and Brees that early.
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Tight End Talk

Jason Witten: 4.09 ADP
Antonio Gates: 5.02 ADP www.sandiegochargers.ws
Kellen Winslow: 5.05 ADP www.clevelandbrowns.ws

I'd rank Gates first, but no argument can be made with the value for all three. They perform like second wideouts, so they deserve to be drafted like them. I'd much rather have them at this price than the following ?

Tony Gonzalez: 6.04 ADP www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Dallas Clark: 6.04 ADP
Chris Cooley: 7.02 ADP

These guys are more than a round worse than the big three.

Clark is set up to be one of the biggest busts of the year. He's injury prone and has topped 40 catches, 500 yards, or five touchdowns once in his five-year career. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will steal his shine. Cooley is solid, but in a system that may not feature him as much. Gonzalez has to deal with age and Brodie Croyle.

I'd rather wait at tight end if you don't go top shelf ?

Tony Scheffler: 10.01 ADP
Owen Daniels: 11.05 ADP
Greg Olsen: 13.08 ADP
Zach Miller: Off the board

It wasn't so long ago that guys like Scheffler, Daniels, and even Olsen would have been taken in the top-eight tight ends. Scheffler and Daniels have already proven they can produce like fantasy starters, and they have big room for improvement. Olsen and Miller are big talents that are ready to take the normal second-year leap for tight ends.

Blotter Boys Wideouts

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4622"]Chad Johnson[/URL]: 3.04 ADP
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL]: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Marshall: 4.05 ADP
Marvin Harrison: 4.11 ADP

I'm surprised Johnson didn't take more of a ADP hit after his preseason shoulder injury. Of course, these drafts mostly took place before the latest news of his torn labrum. He's a risky pick this high, but it does look like he'll play in Week 1. Kellen Winslow supposedly played all last season with a similar injury, and never needed surgery. But everyone's pain tolerance is different and it will only take one wrong landing to make it worse.

Smith and Marshall are much safer picks at these prices. As Mad Dog would say, good job by everyone not overreacting to the two game suspensions. Marshall could get his suspension reduced by a game, so this is a great value. It's surprising more people aren't willing to take a chance on Harrison after a healthy preseason. His ADP hasn't budged. You aren't going to find another receiver this late who is more likely to score ten times.

In Like a Lion

Calvin Johnson: 4.03 ADP
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL]: 4.05 ADP

So much for Megatron slipping after a rough rookie season. The Lions will throw less this season, which is a concern, but these values make sense. Jon Kitna is going in the eleventh round. It's a concern that Kitna will lose his job during the year, but he's a serviceable QB2 at that price.

The Favre Effect

Thomas Jones: 3.08 ADP
Jerricho Cotchery: 5.03 ADP
Laveranues Coles: 6.02 ADP

The two wideouts climbed almost two rounds since Favre was signed! We had them ranked almost this high with Pennington, so the upgrades were less dramatic. Jones was taken tenth overall in a co-worker's league this week, which is New York insanity. Jones looked like a great value this as a cheap source for carries, but he's no longer that cheap.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Re: Fantasy Football News 2008

Top 9 Vultures
Fantasy football isn't fair. A one-yard dive for a touchdown is far easier than 50 hard-fought yards, yet is far easier. We like to think that runners have a magical nose for the end zone, but mostly they just need the opportunity, some good blocking, and luck. NFL quality backs can gain a yard if given the chance.

Our top-ten vultures listed below should get enough opportunities. They are the potential glory hogs, the red zone runners ready to pilfer scores away from teammates. Some of the runners are true vulture backups, while some are in committees. They all should get chances to put up six cheap points.

The top nine vultures are ranked below, with the person he's stealing from in parenthesis.

Honorable Mention: Rudi Johnson (Chris Perry): The trade rumors call into question whether Rudi will even make the team. My guess is that owner Mike Brown would be happy to cut his salary, while Marvin Lewis is a desperate coach who wants all the help he can get. Brown won the last pissing match with Lewis: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4226"]Chris Henry[/URL]. If Lewis wins this one, Rudi could turn into a red zone specialist behind Chris Perry and Kenny Watson. Until he gets hurt again.

9. Jesse Chatman (Thomas Jones): The Jets' red zone struggles last season were the fault of their soft offensive line, not Jones. But if Jones doesn't convert his chances early in the year, New York may look to his burly backup.

8. Deuce McAllister (Reggie Bush): This is our fourth annual vultures list. Deuce was second last season and fourth in 2006 when he was coming off his first ACL surgery. I doubt McAllister will be healthy or effective enough to maintain a significant role in New Orleans. But Sean Payton may let the franchise legend get a few cracks inside the five-yard line to get the NOLA crowd excited. (And when Deuce gets hurt, Pierre Thomas runs with surprising power for his size).

See all the Saints' backfield projections in the Rotoworld draft guide.

7. Dominic Rhodes (Joseph Addai): Like Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai is known to tap out of a game a time or five. If Addai gets winded after a long drive, Rhodes could reprise his old role as Colts vulture. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

6. Sammy Morris/LaMont Jordan (Laurence Maroney): The Patriots backfield remains a mystery, but my gut says LaMont Jordan will have a bigger role than most imagine. Of course, he could also get cut by Saturday. Either way, Laurence Maroney owners can expect a rotation at running back, with Morris, Kevin Faulk, and possibly Jordan involved. Time off the field means fewer chances to score.

5. Andre Hall (Selvin Young): Hall isn't exactly your typical goal-line bruiser, but neither is Selvin Young. Hall replaced Young a few times in the preseason near the money stripe. Was it just the usual Mike Shanahan misdirection or a sign of things to come? Only the Mastermind knows.

4. Tim Hightower (Edgerrin James): Timmy! Marcel Shipp was called Edgerrin James' short-yardage replacement last year, but the numbers don't totally bear it out. James still got most of the chances. Look for Ken Whisenhunt to spread out the carries more this season, with Hightower likely to steal plenty of scores. www.arizonacardinals.ws

3. Chris Taylor (Ahman Green/Steve Slaton): I've been driving the Chris Taylor bandwagon for a while, stopping occasionally to beg for gas money, buy beef jerky, and send expletive-laden emails about Ahman Green to Gary Kubiak. And it appears to be working!

Even long-time Darius Walker aficionado Evan Silva has jumped onboard by taking Taylor in our deep NBCSports.com office league. Taylor doesn't run fancy after knee surgery, but he's healthier than Green and looks the part. Take a flier on Taylor as a vulture and you just may wind up with a starting tailback.

Taylor could be a sneaky Week 1 play in the 100K challenge if he starts for the Texans.

2. Rashard Mendenhall (Willie Parker): FWP has the reputation as a poor goal line back, even with his own coaches. Parker was fifth in the NFL in goal line carries in 2006, and his conversion rate wasn't great, but it was better than players like Joseph Addai, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1663"]Steven Jackson[/URL], and Marion Barber.

Last season, Parker fell to a tie for 27th in goal line tries, only converting once in seven chances. Teammate Najeh Davenport got three more cracks at glory. Look for Mendenhall to get an even larger share this season. I've said it before, but Parker is slated for a Fred Taylor-like role. He'll rip off long runs between the twenties on running downs, but Mendenhall will get the glory on receiving downs and near the stripe.

1. Jonathan Stewart (DeAngelo Williams): You have to be a backup to qualify for this list. LenDale White is also in a committee and should get plenty of scores, but he's likely to lead the Titans in carries as a starter. While I believe Stewart will wind up leading the Panthers, DeAngelo Williams will open the season as the starter. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Stewart moves unlike any 235-pound player I've seen. Perhaps like a young Jamal Lewis, but with receiving skills. He will be the perfect red zone player for Carolina. Even if Williams leads the team in carries early, look for Stewart to score the fantasy points. That's what being a vulture is all about.