Not fades in every situation, but the following are starters I think are extremely unlikely to duplicate their first half success.
Todd Wellemeyer: His demise has already started -- 0-4, 8.34 ERA, 2.07 WHIP in his last 4 outings, and I don't see anything that will change over the next 2+ months. Pitching coach Dave Duncan can do wonders with his staff, but asking a 30-year old career journeyman who's in his first full season starting to duplicate his 7-win, sub 1.30 WHIP first half is too much.
Andy Sonnanstine: His 10 wins is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched. The league's hitting .293 against him, and despite leading his team in wins, he's the clear No. 5 starter on the Rays. Percival's already gone down, and count me in as one who believes it's a near certainty the Rays bullpen doesn't hold its position as the No. 3 unit in baseball for the entire season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Been the single most overvalued pitcher in baseball since the moment he arrived from Japan. Given his inability to throw strikes, it's remarkable that Boston's 11-3 in his 14 starts. However, he's been the beneficiary of some remarkable fortune to attain his 9-1 mark. His command problems and failure to pitch deep into games are both likely to hurt the Sox more this season with the incompetence of their bullpen, which has gone from the strength of the team to iits biggest weakness that features exactly 1 member (Papelbon) who's been steady. Daisuke's continually priced as an ace, something he surely isn't.
Armando Galarraga: Probably been the Tigers' MVP and the biggest reason they're not completely buried in the AL Central race. However, his stuff is nothing special and he has no track record at this level to suggest his success to this point is anything other than big-league hitters being slow to adjust to their first time seeing him. His performance should diminish significantly as he goes through the league for a second and third time.
Todd Wellemeyer: His demise has already started -- 0-4, 8.34 ERA, 2.07 WHIP in his last 4 outings, and I don't see anything that will change over the next 2+ months. Pitching coach Dave Duncan can do wonders with his staff, but asking a 30-year old career journeyman who's in his first full season starting to duplicate his 7-win, sub 1.30 WHIP first half is too much.
Andy Sonnanstine: His 10 wins is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched. The league's hitting .293 against him, and despite leading his team in wins, he's the clear No. 5 starter on the Rays. Percival's already gone down, and count me in as one who believes it's a near certainty the Rays bullpen doesn't hold its position as the No. 3 unit in baseball for the entire season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Been the single most overvalued pitcher in baseball since the moment he arrived from Japan. Given his inability to throw strikes, it's remarkable that Boston's 11-3 in his 14 starts. However, he's been the beneficiary of some remarkable fortune to attain his 9-1 mark. His command problems and failure to pitch deep into games are both likely to hurt the Sox more this season with the incompetence of their bullpen, which has gone from the strength of the team to iits biggest weakness that features exactly 1 member (Papelbon) who's been steady. Daisuke's continually priced as an ace, something he surely isn't.
Armando Galarraga: Probably been the Tigers' MVP and the biggest reason they're not completely buried in the AL Central race. However, his stuff is nothing special and he has no track record at this level to suggest his success to this point is anything other than big-league hitters being slow to adjust to their first time seeing him. His performance should diminish significantly as he goes through the league for a second and third time.
