Math Guys --- Is this good or bad EV ?

FrancisSollozzo

FrancisSollozzo

2
have a -300 tennis fav in a suspended match , will resume july 9.

sets are even 1-1 , 3rd and final set to be determined

if i forfeited 50% of wager now before the conclusion would this be a +EV ?
 
kinosh

kinosh

2
Re: Math Guys --- Is this good or bad EV ?

You would need to know the ML at the start of the 3rd set. If it's still -300, then forfeiting a portion of your wager wouldn't change your EV.
 
Reload

Reload

2
Re: Math Guys --- Is this good or bad EV ?

I'd look at it like this. The real odds of winning the bet have definitely gone out of you favor but the question is how much. Let's say the real odds at this point of winning are more like -200 instead of -300.

So that means you're risking 300 to win 100. But let's say it's only a 66% chance you win and 33% chance you lose.

66% * +100 = 66

33% * -300 = -100
-------------------
So if you keep the bet, your EV is -34

If you surrender half the bet, it's a 100% chance of losing $150.

So I'd hold on and not surrender.
 
Doug

Doug

2
Re: Math Guys --- Is this good or bad EV ?

check the rules closely wherever you bet it, tennis rules vary a lot.
 
WVU

WVU

EOG Master
Re: Math Guys --- Is this good or bad EV ?

mofome said:
what makes someone a 'math guy'?
Click to expand...


someone who understands standard deviation and can apply it to sports lines using math formula. Either that or someone who has access to one of many thousands of arb calculators found all over the net.
 
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