Re: The Famous "pags11" college football plays week one..
Pags11 writeups:
If you thought pags11 was all hype, you were wrong.. Here is pags11 writeups for the games..
Here are my plays for the week:
New Mexico +7
New Mexico plays their first game of the year at home against conference foe TCU. Under head coach Rocky Long, New Mexico has been an especially strong home team (including ATS). QB Donovan Porterie leads the New Mexico offense and has developed into a quality signal caller. He is mobile in the pocket, accurate with his throws and makes good decisions (15 TD, 9 Int. last year). He will be working with inexperienced upper classmen receivers so I look for him to check down to his stud RB Rodney Furgeson and look to move the chains when he does go his receivers. Speaking of Furgeson, who I believe is one of the more underrated running backs in the country. He reminds me a lot of Ahmad Bradshaw when Bradshaw was in college. He has a tremendous ability to make defenders miss and does a great job keeping his legs moving. Also, he runs hard every play and has a nose for the goal line (13 TD last year). I imagine that the TCU defense will focus on containing Furgeson which should leave one-on-one coverage on the outside for Porterie. It’s important to note that TCU has two key injuries to members of their secondary. I also look for Furgeson to wear down the undersized TCU defensive front and do most of his damage in the fourth quarter. New Mexico had one one of the best special teams units in the country last year (rated #14 by Phil Steele), and although they lose their punter and kicker from last year I look for them to be strong this weekend in what could become a field position battle. Defensively, New Mexico has two senior defensive backs who will are both pre-season all conference players, in DeAndre Wright and Glover Quin. These two will allow Long to use his intricate blitz schemes on a regular basis against TCU QB Dalton. Dalton is mobile, but is prone to making bad decisions (10 TD, 11 Int. last year). TCU has an interesting situation that has developed with their RB corps in that last year’s preseason player of the year, Aaron Brown, will be running third team. I do anticipate Brown to play, as well as Turner, but Christian (3.6 ypc, 343 yards rushing last season) is listed as number one RB heading into the game. Due to all of this, it may be difficult for TCU to develop an offensive rhythm as the game goes on. I’ll take my chances with New Mexico plus the touchdown in this one.
Louisiana Tech +8.5
I am really impressed with what Vince Dooley Jr. has done with the La. Tech program in a short amount of time. Dooley is the son of former Georgia coach and current Georgia AD Vince Sr. He has instilled a new attitude in his players and they have responded with what could be a bowl caliber team this year. La. Tech also possesses a strong home field advantage, one that not many people are really aware of. Getting to Ruston, Louisiana is no easy task, even for a school like Mississippi St. It was announced earlier this week that former Georgia Tech QB, Taylor Bennett, will start this game. Bennett is an excellent game manager, which is exactly what La. Tech will need to stay in this ball game deep until the fourth quarter. He has experience, having played in the ACC for a season and also having played in a New Year’s Day bowl game. He also possesses a good deal of veteran pass catchers, as he returns seven guys who caught nineteen or more passes last year. La. Tech has good balance on offense, as they also have a strong running game. They are led by RB Patrick Jackson (4.7 ypc, 1004 yds. rushing, 8 TD) and Daniel Porter (6.0 ypc, 623 yds. rushing, 6 TD), La. Tech returns three senior offensive lineman who will work hard to open up holes for the running backs. Special teams could also play an important role in this game and La. Tech was #39 in the country last year (Phil Steele). They return the preseason first team punter in the WAC in Chris Kaegle, first team punt returner Phil Beck, and fourth team kick returner Phillip Livas. On the other side for MSU, special teams standout (and first team All-SEC Safety) Derek Pegues is suspended for this game. As most of you are familiar with, MSU relies on their defense, running game and special teams. Their QB play is extremely erratic. Carroll got the majority of the playing time down the stretch last year and should start in this one. La. Tech’s primary focus on defense will be in attempting to contain RB
Tony Dixon (14 TD last year). I expect MSU to hand the ball off early and often to Dixon and La. Tech will attempt to stack the box. This should be a knock-down, drag out fight between two similar squads. La. Tech +8.5 is the play for me here.
Memphis +8.5
Memphis is another team that really impressed me towards the end of last year. They finished with a winning record and return the majority of their players. A main strength of their team is their receiving corps, as they return five players who caught thirty-three or more passes last year. Carlos Singleton (15.0 ypr., 767 yds., 11 TD last year) is the playmaker and Duke Calhoun (14.4 ypr, 890 yds., 5 TD) is the possession guy. Arkelon Hall, a junior and former Washington St. QB, will lead the offense for Memphis. He threw for almost 2,500 yards last year at the JC level and should step in and make an immediate impact. Curtis Steele, another JC transfer, will get the start at tailback. Memphis will need to use their passing game to open up their running game. Ole Miss has several key injuries to their defensive line heading into this game, headlined by 1st Team All-SEC DE Greg Hardy. This should allow Hall more time to throw and allow Memphis to sustain more drives. Memphis returns both their punter and kicker (K Matt Reagan is on the Lou Groza Watch List), and it appears to me that special teams is about a wash in this game. Defensively, Memphis will have to key on QB Jevan Sneed (former Texas QB). Sneed’s main two targets are receivers Mike Wallace (6 TD) and Shay Hodge (6 TD). The good news for Memphis is that Ole Miss lost their top three running backs from last year’s squad, which could hinder Houston Nutt’s offensive game plan. Memphis’s strength on defense is their defensive line, lead by DT Clinton McDonald, who is on the preseason Lombardi Watch List. Some technical trends in this game favor Memphis. In the last five meetings, in what has become a rivalry series, all five games have been decided by ten or fewer points. This could end up being a wild game, but I’m going to take Memphis and the 8.5 points and hold onto my seat.
Idaho +27
I got to watch Idaho play quite a bit last year, and although I didn’t ever play on them, I thought they were a team with a lot of potential (ATS speaking) heading into this season. I say this because they are well-coached (former D Coordinator Rob Akey did a good job last year), and have good balance on offense. 2nd Team All-WAC performer, Deonte Jackson (4.9 ypc, 1206 yds, 7 TD), leads the Idaho running attack. He is an elusive runner who had five 100+ yard games last season. Nathan Enderle started as a red shirt freshman last year, and really improved the second half of the season. Some of you may have even remembered his gutsy performance in game one last year vs. USC. He possesses moxie that you won’t see on a stat sheet and is a tough kid. He has his top six receivers returning this season, led by Max Komar (14.8 ypr, 445 yds. 4 TD) and Eddie Williams (12.5 ypr, 363 yds. 3 TD). I think the Idaho offensive will be able to move the ball regularly against an Arizona defense who returns only two starters from last year’s underperforming defense. It usually takes a couple of games for defensive units that start a lot of new players to get a feel for things (see Oregon St. tonight vs. Stanford). The key will be for Idaho to move the ball enough to keep the Arizona offense off the field. A huge blow to the Arizona offense this week took place when it was announced that preseason first team All-Pac Ten TE Rob Gronkowski wouldn’t be playing in this game due to strep throat. Arizona does run a version of the Texas Tech offense, with the exception being that they use their TE a lot more than Texas Tech does. With the loss of Gronkowski, Idaho’s primary focus will be stopping playmaking WR Mike Thomas (11 TD). Over the years, Arizona has had a reluctance to run the football, but in this game I look for RB Nicholas Grigsby (4.4 ypc) o get a good deal of carries. Another key will be getting pressure on QB Willie Tuitama (28 TD, 12 INT). Arizona is going to get their points in this game, but I think Idaho will as well. I’m on Idaho +27 in this one.
Cal -5
As I watched Cal get down 21-0 in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, I was really impressed with the toughness the team had to fight back and win the game. I think this says a lot about a team’s character and also their head coach, Jeff Tedford. Cal is a traditionally strong home team, especially at the beginning of the year. Tedford is also a great recruiter and has continually brought in good talent to the Cal program, especially at the QB position. Sophomore QB Kevin Riley will start the game, as he and senior QB Nate Longshore battled it out in the spring and deep into the fall. I like Riley’s mobility and he completes a high percentage of his passes (64.3% last year). Look for Riley to hand the ball off, and throw the ball out of the backfield, to talented sophomore RB Javhid Best (7.6 ypc) who should step up as Cal’s next great running back. Riley will throw the ball to a young, but talented, receiving corp. Special teams should slightly favor Cal as punter Jordan Kay returns, as well as Best returning again handling the kick returning duties. Defensively, Cal’s strength is with their linebacker corps which will be a key factor as they will have to focus on corralling MSU RB Jevon Ringer (5.9 ypc, 1447 yds.). QB Brian Hoyer will be faced with many key third down situations in this game, and in observing him play I believe he lacks good pocket presence and holds onto the ball too long at times. MSU loses All-American receiver Devon Thomas (who also returned kicks) and TE Kellen Davis, who combined caught over 50% of MSU’s passes last year. MSU’s defense gave up 346 yards per game last year and they lose six of their top ten tacklers. This is a cross-trip country for MSU and this game has a very similar feel to when 2007 SEC East Champion Tennessee came out to play Cal in week one last year and was beat by two TDs. I’m not a big fan of laying points, but I feel strongly enough to do so in this game. I’ll lay five with Cal in this game.
Illinois +8.5
This game should be an outstanding battle, featuring two of the more up and coming programs in the country. This game is also a big time rivalry game and is being played at a neutral site in St. Louis, Missouri. Both Illinois and Missouri have done a great job with building their respective programs the past several years, with recruiting being a major area of emphasis. Ron Zook is considered to be one of the top recruiters in the entire country, which is evident as he has taken Illinois from a Big 10 doormat to a birth in the Rose Bowl within three years. Illinois strength going into this game is with both their offensive and defensive line. This is a team that is very physical and it starts up front, as Zook has focused on building depth on both lines. This will be especially important with their defensive line, as it’s nearly impossible to face the Missouri spread without a quality two deep. Illinois is a team that has gone into Columbus and come out a winner, they battled USC for almost three quarters toe-to-toe in the Rose Bowl. They are a team with experience and confidence. Everyone is talking about the loss of Mendenhall, but Daniel Dufrene (4.6 ypc) did an excellent job as a back-up last year and all reports I read say that stud WR Arrelious Benn will be carrying the ball a lot more out of the backfield. Juice Williams has shown improvement each year, and with much of the attention being paid to Chase Daniel in this game, Williams’s ability to run the football is more dangerous than is Daniels. Granted he’s not the passer Daniel is, but he completed almost 60% of his passes last year and I look for continued improvement from the junior signal caller. Illinois works hard with their special teams unit (#42 rated by Phil Steele last year) and they will have to do a great job in attempting to cover WR/KR Jeremy Maclin. On defense I expect 1st Team All-Big Ten and preseason All-American Vonte Davis (brother of 49er’s TE Vernon Davis), to cover Maclin. Missouri comes into this game without Martin Rucker (lost to graduation), Tony Temple (lost to graduation), WR Denario Alexander (injury) and TE Chase Coffman hasn’t had live contact in over two weeks as he’s coming off a broken finger. Jimmy Jackson is a nice short yardage back, but won’t carry the load, as Missouri is looking to feature RB Derrick Washington. It is imperative that Illinois put pressure on Daniel and get hands up at the line of scrimmage to try and knock balls down. If Illinois can pressure Daniel regularly, they have a real shot in this game. It’s Illinois plus the points for me in this one.
Alabama +5
In listening to everyone on TV and on the internet, anf they all think that Clemson is going to come into this game and kill Alabama. We are talking about a team in Alabama that didn’t lose a single game last year by more than a touchdown. We are talking about a team led by Nick Saban, who has been called by Bill Belichick as “the best defensive mind in the game of football today”. We are also talking about a program that has had two of the best recruiting classes in the country the last two years. Also, we are talking about a team that has a chance to compete to win the strongest conference in the entire country (in the SEC), and is led by a veteran QB (in John Parker Wilson). I’m just not buying it here people. I respect Clemson’s skill position players and their speed on defense, but many people are overlooking the fact that Clemson is replacing four starters on an offensive line that already had problems opening up holes vs. quality opponents last year with their running game. I found it interesting this week in listening to Terry Bowden’s press conferences, that he is “concerned that Saban has had a whole off-season to plan on attacking Clemson’s offensive line”. When asked his confidence level of his O-Line, Bowden responded with a “6”. I admit that James Davis and C.J. Spiller are good running backs, but they are only as good as their offensive line. Alabama must focusing on stopping senior WR Aaron Kelly (11 TD), who is an impressive player. Offensively, if John Parker Wilson can make good decisions in the red zone, Alabama has every shot to cover this game. He has one of the most highly touted WR recruits in the country in Julio Jones (Anyone see the video of him on Youtube of him catching that ball and taking it to the house in a scrimmage this fall?). The kid is flat impressive and will, along with underrated Mike McCoy, allow Alabama to open up their running game. Alabama's running game is led by the three headed monster of Glenn Coffee, freshman Mark Ingram (son of former NFL player Mark Ingram), and Terry Grant. Another key component to this game will be Alabama’s edge in special teams. They finished with the #17 ranked unit (rated by Phil Steele) last year, and good special teams play is a staple of a Nick Saban coached team. Look for a battle deep into the fourth quarter that could be decided by a kick. I’ll take my chances with Alabama and the points here.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
