Fantasy Baseball News 2008

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

NL Team-by-Team Notes
May rankings next week.

Chad Cordero actually had a fastball clocked at 76 mph last week. For the most part, he's been throwing 82-84 mph, topping out at 86 mph. Whether or not he's pain-free, his arm probably isn't sound. The Nats are sticking with Jon Rauch in the closer's role until Cordero earns is back, which will probably happen if he can get his fastball up to 86-88 mph. However, I think it's at least 50/50 that he'll return to the DL by the middle of next month. GM Jim Bowden should already regret not trading him while there was still considerable demand for him in the offseason. On the plus side, if Rauch spends three or four months in the closer's role, his trade value could be higher than ever before. The possibility that the Nats won't have either Cordero or Rauch available come August makes Jesus Colome a sleeper.

National League Notes

Arizona - The results haven't been great, but Randy Johnson didn't look bad at all in his first two starts back from the DL. His fastball has regularly been 90-92 mph, and his slider is breaking well. He gave up just one hit on the slider in Sunday's loss to San Diego. I see that as a very encouraging sign. Johnson won't make 30 starts, but he should be an asset in shallow mixed leagues when healthy. ? Not that he wouldn't have been useful as a true bench player, but Tony Clark did Arizona a favor when he failed to accept their contract offer. No longer shoved to the bench every second or third day, Conor Jackson has opened the season at .377/.469/.717 with 18 runs scored and 17 RBI in 16 games. Obviously, he can't maintain that kind of pace. However, he should be an asset in mixed leagues all season long. With both he and Mark Reynolds off to outstanding starts, it's going to be tough for Arizona to find starts for [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL], who could be back from knee surgery around the first of the month. ? Micah Owings gets the Giants on Monday and the Padres on Saturday, making him a fine one-week option in shallow mixed leagues.

Atlanta - Off to a brutal start against right-handers, Matt Diaz was benched in favor of Gregor Blanco for three straight games over the weekend. Diaz's spot as an everyday player was always tentative, so he's very much in danger of returning to a platoon role. Blanco, though, is more of a fourth or fifth outfielder and wouldn't be an ideal choice to replace him. There isn't an NL team that would make more sense for Barry Bonds than the Braves, and if they were to sign him, they'd be the favorites to win the East. Still, it seems highly, highly unlikely. Brandon Jones is off to a slow start in Triple-A, so there are no quality internal options to replace Diaz. The Giants should be trying to interest them in Randy Winn. Until the team looks elsewhere, Blanco could have some value in NL-only leagues. Unfortunately, he has no power and he's a poor percentage basestealer despite very good speed. ? I want to see what happens Monday before getting concerned about Tim Hudson's velocity drop. The Braves are hoping it was just a tired arm. ? Rafael Soriano (elbow) appears doubtful to return this week, and there's always good reason for extra concern when he has arm problems. Since Peter Moylan joined Soriano on the DL, Manny Acosta has taken over as the Braves' closer. Those with open DL spots should be thinking about picking up Mike Gonzalez, who is due back from Tommy John surgery in 4-6 weeks. atlantabraves.com

Chicago - Counting Reed Johnson, the Cubs have six regulars with OBPs over .400 and a seventh (Aramis Ramirez) at .393. That just leaves left field, and that's where they can stick Matt Murton, who was at .462 in Triple-A before being called up. Of course, there are some flukes. Reed Johnson, who has supplanted Felix Pie in center, has a .344 career mark. Ryan Theriot finished at .326 last year. Geovany Soto will probably continue to show good power, but there's no way he's hitting .328 all season long. The two guys with the best chance of staying there are Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome hasn't homered since his memorable three-run shot off Eric Gagne on Opening Day. However, it's easy to see him finishing the year with a .300 average. ? At 23, Felix Pie is still too young to be a bench player. It's ridiculous how quick manager Lou Piniella was to pull the plug on him, but there's no reason to compound the mistake by letting him play once a week in the majors. Besides stunting his development, they're also hurting his trade value. ? I'm still more optimistic than not after watching Ted Lilly pitch Thursday. Dropping him would be a bad idea.

Cincinnati - Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, Ken Griffey Jr., Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Patterson, Catcher, Pitcher. Just try it, Dusty. ? Not that I'm complaining about the job Baker has done so far. The one big test was whether he'd give Votto a chance to beat out Scott Hatteberg, and he's passed with flying colors. Perhaps Votto will slump and Hatteberg will eventually find his way back into the starting lineup, but Votto is a legitimate corner option in mixed leagues while he's hot. ? Unfortunately, Homer Bailey's outstanding start in Triple-A didn't make him the choice to replace the struggling Josh Fogg in the rotation on Monday. Matt Belisle (forearm) will get the call after performing at the very top level of his ability during his rehab assignment. He and Fogg might as well be the same pitcher, but it'll have to be a short-term upgrade with the way each has thrown recently. Belisle isn't recommended in NL-only leagues.

Colorado - The Rockies are already coming to regret handing Jayson Nix a starting job based far too much of a strong performance in the World Cup last fall and the fact that he was out of options. He's struggling as much as his minor league numbers suggested he would, and it looks like he'll be a backup to Clint Barmes for the foreseeable future. Barmes is another well below average hitter, but he's hot at the moment and has value in NL-only leagues. A trade for additional help may come later. The Rockies certainly have the prospects to make a run at Brian Roberts, with the Orioles likely to be particularly interested in infielders Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson and Hector Gomez. ? Chris Iannetta is also picking up time at Yorvit Torrealba's expense. It's unlikely that the two will switch roles this year -- the Rockies' still prefer Torrealba's defense -- but Iannetta should get more time than most backups. Unfortunately, the power isn't there to make him more than a $1 player in NL-only leagues.

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Florida - It's only a matter of time until Chris Volstad debuts. It just remains to be seen whether the Marlins will be able to delay the move until late May, guaranteeing that he wouldn't be a super-two player after 2010. The Marlins are only getting decent starts from Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson at the moment. Andrew Miller's velocity seems to have come back, but he's still not hitting his spots. Ricky Nolasco has given up six homers in 15 1/3 innings. Burke Badenhop wasn't a very good prospect in the first place and barely has any experience above A-ball. Volstad should replace one pitcher from that group within the next four or five weeks. Once it happens, he could be the Marlins' No. 1 or No. 2 starter for fantasy purposes, depending on whether Olsen can keep this up. ? Hanley Ramirez did steal three bases over the weekend, bringing his season total to five and causing those who turned over a pile of money to land him to sigh in relief. Manager Fredi Gonzalez spoke publically this spring about preferring that his shortstop do less running to save wear and tear on his body. I think it's having some effect. All three of Ramirez's steals on Friday and Saturday came off a sore-armed Johnny Estrada, and it seems like he's been quite a bit pickier in choosing when to run this year. He'll get 40 anyway, but a third-straight 50-steal season might not materialize.

Houston - Jose Valverde was able to pitch a clean inning Sunday for his second save in four tries, but it wasn't a particularly impressive outing. He allowed one hit and walked one. Just one of his 23 pitches resulted in a swing and a miss, and as spotty as his control is, he needs to miss bats to succeed. He's not hurt, so it's possible he'll reemerge as a shutdown closer as quickly as he lost it. However, it wouldn't be the first time in his career that he's been a pretty terrible pitcher for a month or two. He'll probably keep his job, but it may be a long time before he resumes helping owners in ERA and WHIP. ? Doug Brocail is the closest thing the Astros have to a fallback if Valverde continues to struggle, making him worth picking up in NL-only leagues. Rule-5 pick Wesley Wright has impressed at times, but he lacks any consistency when it comes to throwing strikes. ? Swingman Jack Cassel will be brought up Thursday to replace the ailing Wandy Rodriguez (groin) on the DL. It looked like Rodriguez was going to make his next couple of starts on the road anyway, so the DL trip might be good news for his owners. Wandy has a 6.41 ERA away from Minute Maid since the beginning of last year. Cassel shouldn't be used in NL-only leagues. ? Kaz Matsui is back, but Ty Wigginton (thumb) is set to miss at least the first half of the week. Hold off on activating him.

Los Angeles - Nomar Garciaparra came off the DL last week, and the Dodgers will try to both keep him happy and still find playing time for Blake DeWitt at third base. Garciaparra could very well prove to be a liability, but the Dodgers should go ahead and give him a look now before Andy LaRoche (thumb) returns in 2-3 weeks. DeWitt did OK as a stopgap, but since he'll likely be sent down when LaRoche returns, NL-only leaguers with alternatives shouldn't stress about holding on to him. ? Hong-Chih Kuo, who was effective for four innings against the Pirates last Tuesday, will make his second start against the Reds this Tuesday. He should also get a home start versus the Rockies. Kuo is an awful bet to stay healthy, but NL-only leaguers will want him active this week.

Milwaukee - Let me get this straight: the Brewers are carrying 14 pitches, yet still used Eric Gagne for a fourth straight day on Sunday. The same Eric Gagne who hadn't worked on four straight days since 2004. Ned Yost got exactly what he deserved in that one. Brewers fans, on the other hand, deserve a lot better. ? Ben Sheets appears doubtful for Wednesday due to what's being called triceps tightness. The Brewers genuinely don't believe this is any sort of long-term issue, but they have to be cautious for now. My guess is that he won't pitch this week. ? If Sheets is scratched, then Dave Bush will start Wednesday. If not, it looks like Bush will be the odd man out in the rotation. Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra have also been disappointments, but they do have more upside than Bush, and the Brewers can use Bush in middle relief, something they don't want to do with either youngster. ? I still can't muster much concern about Prince Fielder's slow start. Too many people are making a big deal about the diet, but no one would have known anything about him becoming a vegetarian if he didn't go public with it. He doesn't look any different, and it's not like he's sending balls to the warning track that were going out last year. He's just in a slump. See about buying low.

New York - Moises Alou appears set to return from hernia surgery on Friday. Brady Clark is the obvious choice to go to make room for him, and Angel Pagan figures to join Endy Chavez on the bench most of the time. The Mets could play Pagan over Ryan Church against lefties, but Pagan, a switch-hitter, has hit righties considerably better in limited major league experience and Church is actually handling lefties quite well in 30 at-bats this season. In fact, both of Church's homers have come off southpaws. ? Nelson Figueroa fits into the Jason Simontacchi mold: finesse right-hander comes from seemingly nowhere to have a good month or two, creating some believers in the process, before eventually showing everyone why the quad-A label was created in the first place. Of course, that success can easily last just a week or two, rather than multiple months. Figueroa is actually pretty good as far as stopgaps go, but he's still a sixth starter, and it'd be too risky to use him in NL-only leagues with the Cubs and Braves on the schedule for this week. newyorkmets.com

Philadelphia - Although the fact that they used him Saturday meant they'd have to go a full 15 days without his services, the Phillies placed Jimmy Rollins on the disabled list Sunday with a sprained ankle. It was a surprising move, especially in light of the decision to replace him with a Double-A player (Brad Harman) they won't want to use at all. Eric Bruntlett will probably get all of the starts at shortstop for the next two weeks, making him a fine play in NL-only leagues. Pedro Feliz owners in one-game eligibility leagues should be hoping he sees an inning or two there as part of some late-game maneuvering. ? If the Phillies had it to do over again, they surely would have placed Rollins on the DL when he first got hurt and kept Shane Victorino (calf) on the active roster. Victorino appears ready to play now, but he'll be ineligible to return until next Monday.

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Pittsburgh - The poor command exhibited by Tom Gorzelanny to date suggests that he might not be completely healthy. He's had elbow problems before, and he dealt with some shoulder tightness during spring training. There's a lot to like about Gorzelanny when he's on, but I've always been worried about his arm. It's possible he'll be making a trip to see Dr. James Andrews within the next month. ? With Nate McLouth still tearing it up, perhaps we'll see Nyjer Morgan and Kevin Thompson switch places. The Pirates still think Morgan has promise, but they can't afford to give him any at-bats right now. Thompson, who would be at least as effective off the bench, is hitting .346/.404/.500 in 52 at-bats in Triple-A. ? Jack Wilson (calf) is still at least a week away. The Pirates will keep using Brian Bixler and Luis Rivas.

St. Louis - Mark Mulder (shoulder) has been effective in his two rehab starts to date and seems set to rejoin the rotation early next month. It's going to leave the Cards with a tough decision on which starter to bump. Todd Wellemeyer was the low man on the totem pole initially, but he's impressed while starting off 2-0. Management needs to strongly consider moving Braden Looper back to the pen. He's been the weak link in the rotation so far, and he's likely to be more helpful in relief than the other possibilities for demotion (Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro). ? As for Mulder, I see him as a long shot to contribute in NL-only leagues. There are certainly worse pitchers to have stashed away, but I'll take the possibility of two months from Chris Carpenter over five months of Mulder. ? Some guys have to homer every day to stay in the lineup. For Ryan Ludwick, even that isn't sufficient. At least Skip Schumaker is also playing quite well at the moment. Still, it's hard to believe a guy slugging .800 was penciled into the lineup just twice last week.

San Diego - Add the Padres to the list of teams that have to be concerned about their situations at second base. Tadahito Iguchi is hitting .213/.298/.253 and has generally looked pretty awful in the process. If Matt Antonelli starts tearing up the PCL, San Diego might not wait too long to make a switch. The 23-year-old Antonelli is currently batting .231/.385/.461 in 52 at-bats. He wouldn't have big-time fantasy upside in Petco Park, but he might offer a better OBP and more speed on the basepaths than Iguchi. ? The Padres could also reenter the market for an outfielder. Scott Hairston is hitting .203, while Jim Edmonds is at .204 with a .245 slugging percentage. They do have Chase Headley in Triple-A, but he's also off to a poor start. They'll be on the lookout for any veterans that become available. Gabe Gross is one possibility.

San Francisco - Besides maybe Tim Lincecum, John "Babe" Bowker was the Giant most responsible for the team winning the season series against the Cardinals 4-3. He homered in three of his four starts versus St. Louis and drove in nine runs in those games. Ideally, the Giants would just make him their everyday first baseman right now. He's still a novice at the position, but he'll get better. Of course, he's not nearly this good of a hitter. However, he does have legitimate promise, separating him from many of the guys the Giants have tried the last few years. If it means Dan Ortemeier joins Rajai Davis on waivers, well, that's not much of a loss. If Rich Aurilia (still no extra-base hits or runs scored in 55 at-bats) is kicked to the curb where he belongs, then Brian Sabean will have done something right for once. ? I'll withhold further comment about the Manny Burriss callup, except to say that it's doubtful he'll have any fantasy value. Brian Bocock will continue seeing most of the starts at shortstop, and second base is crowded enough with Eugenio Velez and Ray Durham sharing time.

Washington - John Lannan's 11-strikeout game against the Mets might have been the surprise of last week. It wasn't his first nice outing as a major leaguer, but he entered the game with 16 strikeouts in 45 1/3 innings since debuting last year. Lannan throws 86-89 mph and has good movement on his changeup. The combination would seem to make him a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, but hitters unfamiliar with his change could keep having trouble against him. Still, with the Braves and the right-handed-heavy Cubs on the schedule, this doesn't seem like the right week to use him in NL-only leagues. ? Paul Lo Duca went on the DL with his hand injury, but the Nats declined to promote Jesus Flores this time, suggesting they're not particularly pleased with his glovework. Lo Duca won't be missed on offense, but since Johnny Estrada still isn't throwing at close to 100 percent, the Nats are hurting defensively behind the plate. Wil Nieves will get more time if Estrada continues to struggle to get the ball down to second base. ? Felipe Lopez had a couple of nice games on Friday and Saturday, so he could keep taking starts away from Ronnie Belliard. For this week at least, Belliard doesn't look like a very good play in NL-only leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

GoGo Grounded

There's an awful lot of good stuff to cover today, so let's skip the usual niceties and get right to the notes from around baseball ?

* Carlos Gomez had an amazing Twins debut and went 14-for-43 (.326) with five steals through 10 games, but he's 6-for-44 (.136) with zero walks in 10 games since. Gomez continues to rack up steals despite rarely being on base, but after going 0-for-5 with four strikeouts Tuesday he's now hitting .230/.247/.310 overall. He's plenty exciting at times, but a 22-year-old with a .247 on-base percentage and 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio has little business atop any lineup.

Minnesota rushed him to the majors, in part to show some of what they got for Johan Santana and in part to quickly replace Torii Hunter in center field, but including his time with the Mets last season Gomez has hit .231 with a putrid 51-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 228 career plate appearances. Nearly one-fourth of his career hits have come on bunt singles, which means that Gomez has batted .202 with 51 strikeouts in 203 plate appearances when he swings away.

* Manager Ned Yost said Monday that a wet mound in Cincinnati was to blame for Eric Gagne blowing his third save of the season Sunday, but the field conditions presumably had little to do with Gagne's fourth blown save Tuesday. In fairness to Gagne he nearly wriggled out of trouble after allowing the first two batters he faced to reach, but Rickie Weeks' inability to turn a would-be double play allowed the tying run to score from third base instead of ending the game.

The trouble started when Gagne plunked leadoff man Cesar Izturis on the elbow and he scored the tying run, but eventually had to leave the game. X-rays were negative and he's considered day-to-day, but Izturis' unexpected exit led to Albert Pujols making his first career appearance at second base. Pujols' value skyrockets in leagues where one appearance creates eligibility at a position, although you may want to reconsider why you're in such a silly league to begin with.

* Out since April 2, J.J. Putz returned from the disabled list Tuesday and immediately resumed ninth-inning duties, getting swinging strikeouts against Adam Jones and Ramon Hernandez while closing out a 4-2 victory. His return pushes Mark Lowe and Ryan Rowland-Smith back into setup roles. Meanwhile, not only do the Mariners finally have Putz back, Erik Bedard is now expected to rejoin the rotation Saturday against the Angels after being scratched from two straight starts.

* Josh Beckett was scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday due to neck stiffness, leaving David Pauley to struggle against the Angels while filling in. As of Tuesday night the Red Sox had yet to decide whether Beckett's turn in the rotation will be skipped completely or if he'll simply be pushed back a couple days. Whatever the case, the injury is not related to the back spasms that caused him to begin the year on the disabled list and isn't expected to send him back to the DL.

* Chad Cordero appeared to make some progress Monday night, tossing a scoreless inning while showing increased velocity. He even said afterward that his arm was fine, but felt a "clicking" in his shoulder once he got back to the team hotel and is scheduled to be examined by Dr. James Andrews. "We just want to make sure there really is nothing wrong," Cordero said. "Just clicking, that's all it was. No pain, nothing like that." Suffice it to say that Jon Rauch's value remains high.

* C.C. Sabathia had his fantasy owners plenty scared while beginning the year 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA, but got back on track in a big way Tuesday. Sabathia tossed six scoreless innings against the Royals, racking up 11 strikeouts while picking up his first win. It'll be a while before his ERA gets back into the realm of respectability, but that just allows more time to grab him as a buy-low target, because with 25 strikeouts in 24 innings and little drop in velocity he'll be just fine.

AL Quick Hits: Jorge Posada (shoulder) started behind the plate Tuesday for the first time in two weeks, but the combination of a quadriceps strain and his wife giving birth is expected to keep Alex Rodriguez out of the lineup until at least Friday ? John Lackey (triceps) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday at Single-A and remains on track for a mid-May return ? Dustin Pedroia smacked three doubles Tuesday and now leads the AL with 11 two-baggers ? With Jake Westbrook (ribs) placed on the disabled list Tuesday the Indians may call up ground-ball machine Aaron Laffey to replace him in the rotation ? Manager Jim Leyland said Monday that Joel Zumaya (shoulder) could throw off a mound later this week ? Jason Varitek sat out Tuesday's game for the second straight day because of the flu ? Dioner Navarro (finger) came off the shelf Tuesday and will resume being the Rays' primary catcher ? With Placido Polanco (back) out, Ramon Santiago started at second base Tuesday and homered for the first time since 2003.

NL Quick Hits: John Smoltz held the Nationals to one run over seven innings Tuesday and totaled 10 strikeouts?including the 3,000th of his career?but was a tough-luck loser in his first defeat of the season ? Ted Lilly turned in his second straight solid start Tuesday, holding the Mets to one run over six innings to quiet concerns about diminished velocity ? Gabe Kapler (shoulder) hasn't started since April 13, but came off the bench Tuesday to deliver a walk-off single in the 12th inning ? After hitting .421 in 14 games at Triple-A, Jerry Hairston Jr. made his first big-league appearance of the season Tuesday and went 4-for-5 with three RBIs ? Rickie Weeks is batting just .192, but after a big game Tuesday now has three homers, five steals, and 18 runs in 20 games ? Clint Barmes appears to have overtaken Jayson Nix for the second-base gig, starting seven of the past nine games ? Kosuke Fukudome reached base in all five of his trips to the plate Tuesday and now sports a .477 on-base percentage ? By trading Gabe Gross to the Rays the Brewers cleared the way for Tony Gwynn Jr. to return from the disabled list Wednesday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Clues to early struggles

David Ortiz opened the season with just three hits in his first 43 at bats for an .070 batting average. But in the eight games since then, he's raised his average more than 100 points. Granted, .177 is still nothing to write home about.

However, had these last eight games occurred at the beginning of the season, he would have gotten off to a .306 start, and nobody would be giving him a second thought. Such is life in the world of small data sets.

In general, it takes a good six weeks for statistics to stabilize and give us a true read on how a player is actually doing. Until then, we can usually find clues to explain the early strugglers like Ortiz.

Small samples are far more noticeable in April than they are any other time of the season. Kenji Johjima has been a model of consistency since coming over from Japan but is batting only .196 in 56 at bats. However, he batted .167 over a 60 at-bat stretch last July, and nobody noticed.

Justin Verlander is off to a slow start, in part due to poor bullpen support. However, even last year's solid 3.66 ERA included an entire month when he posted a 5.08 ERA. But that was August, and nobody noticed.

Some early slumpers have just run into a bit of bad luck. Troy Tulowitzki's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .200, more than 100 points lower than his career level; that should improve, as will his current .153 average. Similarly, Roy Oswalt is posting solid skills but has been snake-bitten by an inflated .350 BABIP. As that regresses, his 6.00 ERA should improve significantly.

And then there are those players whose early struggles might need to be taken a bit more seriously.

Last year's American League Cy Young Award winner, C.C. Sabathia, has looked awful in his first four starts. In his early career, he had several three-game disaster stretches, but never four. Excessive workload has been cited in many quarters as a possible culprit. For a player of his physique, he pitched too many innings in his formative years, then weathered a 63-inning workload spike in 2007. There is no talk of injury, but these are classic burnout symptoms.

The Dodgers were hoping a change of scenery would help Andruw Jones rebound to pre-2007 productivity levels, but so far that has not happened.

In fact, his peripheral skills indicators are even further off from last year. His 63% contact rate is more than 10% lower than 2007, a harbinger of continuing batting average woes. His power stroke is in danger as well; he is hitting 15% fewer fly balls and line drives than even last year, when he hit only 26 home runs, his lowest total since 1999.

Finally, there are the strugglers for whom we had expectations that were probably too high to begin with. Kenny Rogers has teased us for years with marginal skills indicators, so his poor showing should not be too surprising, especially coming off an injury. Barry Zito's strikeout rate has been in decline for several years and has plummeted even further in 2008. And while Jack Cust batted .256 in 2007, his 58% contact rate should have been enough of a warning; odds are he'll be hard-pressed to add back 100 points to his current .157 batting average.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Prospect Report: Week 3

I've been accused of a lot of things in my life. Bad timing, no tack, poor fashion sense, little grasp on recent events outside of baseball, and a troubling affection for Bruce Willis I'd all admit to being guilty of. But until this week I had never been called a pom-pom American League fan. One reader noted how last week's column saw just two NL players profiled while six from the AL received writeups. And for those scoring at home, this week's edition will see an even more lopsided ratio.

Unfortunately, I'm a slave to the randomness of the callups, and there will be some ebb and flow as the year progresses. Strangely, I would have wagered that the early season would have leaned towards the NL, with stud prospects like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Homer Bailey, and others just a quick call away in Triple-A. Instead the opposite has been true, but fans of the Senior Circuit will certainly have plenty to read about in the coming weeks.

[SIZE=+1]Major League Callups[/SIZE]

Brian Buscher ? 1B Twins ? Up for the second time due to an injury in as many years, Buscher is a decent bet to have a little value in AL-only leagues this season. A third round pick out of South Carolina in 2003, Buscher showed little potential with the Giants before breaking out for the Twins' Double-A club last season. The 6'0", 220-pound left-hander hit .309/.391/.478 with a 30/31 K/BB ratio and good gap power for New Britain, then went on to do more of the same for Triple-A Rochester. Buscher also got some time in the majors, though his time there was limited due to an infection in his right leg.

Buscher was back with Rochester to start the 2008 campaign and was off to another fine start with a .345 batting average and 4 home runs. With Adam Everett on the disabled list, Buscher will serve as a bench player for at least a week. Buscher deserves a few starts over the struggling Mike Lamb while he's hitting so well, but it's more likely that the Twins stick with the veteran for now. However, Buscher would be the most deserving candidate of playing time if injuries to Justin Morneau, Lamb, or an outfielder occur, or if Lamb continues to struggle. Twins' management seemed to like him last season, so it seems likely he'll get a chance as a regular against right-handers at some point. Because of his high batting average and solid power, Buscher will be an option in AL-only leagues when that happens. Recommendation: Monitor in one-year AL-only leagues.

Robinzon Diaz ? C Blue Jays ? At one point considered a sleeper prospect in the Blue Jays' system, Diaz is getting his first shot in the majors at the age of 24. His biggest strength is his incredible ability to put the ball in play during nearly every at-bat. In 1,978 career at-bats in the minors, Diaz has struck out just 155 times. That's a major reason why he's hit .305 in professional baseball. However, Diaz lacks secondary skills. Because he swings at everything he rarely walks, and there's no loft to speak of in his swing. The result is a mediocre 731 OPS despite the high batting average, and there's little reason to think he'll develop much in the way of secondary skills in the future. However, since he's also a solid defender, Diaz's batting average skills will make him a big league backup in the near future. Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.

German Duran ? 2B Rangers ? A sixth round pick out of a Junior College in 2005, Duran broke out as a prospect in 2007. The 5'10" right-hander had a solid season for High-A Bakersfield in 2006, but his .300/.352/.525 line with a 77/34 K/BB ratio, 32 doubles, and 22 homers for Double-A Frisco last season got him noticed by a wider audience. Duran has a quick swing that generates decent batting averages and solid gap power. Though he doesn't walk much, Duran has enough discipline to go with above average contact skills to maintain a .340 on-base percentage. Groomed as a utility man earlier in his minor league career, Duran played second base almost exclusively last season and continued to do so early this year.

The big question surrounding Duran's prospect status is if the increase to 22 home runs last season was for real. He was moving to a park that favored home runs more, and most of his damage did come against left-handed pitching. Duran turns 24 in August, so if he regresses in the power department at Triple-A Oklahoma this season he'll be back to looking like a future bench player. However, if he defies the odds and continues to show increased power he could have a career as a regular. I lean towards him regressing but still being a fine bench player. Off to a slow start for Oklahoma, Duran will get a few starts in place of the injured Hank Blalock this week. Though little should be expected now, he's someone to watch for the future. Recommendation: Monitor in one-year AL-only formats; stash away in AL-only keeper leagues.

Ben Francisco ? OF Indians ? Too old to be considered a big time prospect, the 26-year-old Francisco will get his second chance with the Indians in as many seasons. The outfielder had the best season of his career in 2007, hitting .318/.382./.496 in his second go-round with Triple-A Buffalo and then .274 with three homers in 62 at-bats for Cleveland. He posted a solid 85/39 K/BB ratio during that timeframe, and he also notched 22 steals. Francisco followed up his strong 2007 campaign with an even better spring that saw him hit .362 with three homers in limited action.

The knock on Francisco has always been that he has a bunch of solid tools but no outstanding abilities. This criticism is evident in his stat line as well, as he consistently shows solid yet below average numbers across the board. While Francisco's 2007 campaign looks like somewhat of a breakout, it was due mostly to an inflated BABIP and the rest of his skills were in line with previous seasons. That doesn't mean Francisco can't be a solid reserve or a platoon player against left-handers, but that's his ceiling at this point. He won't see much action this time around, but he could take Jason Michaels' role later in the season. His 20-steal wheels will help his fantasy value, and he should be considered in deep AL-only formats if he can carve out a part-time role. Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only formats.

Brad Harman ? 2B Phillies ? Our lonely National League representative of the week, Harman was promoted to the majors after Jimmy Rollins found himself on the disabled list. The 6'1", 175-pound Australian has had an up and down minor league career, starting as a shortstop and then moving over to second base full-time last season. His bat has also been a rocky ride, though he did have a solid enough season with a .281/.341/.449 line as a 21-year-old in High-A in 2007. Harman was off to a slow start for Double-A Reading, but he's only going to get a few at-bats as a backup and there's little harm in carrying him over a more experienced player from Triple-A. Perhaps he'll be a utility player down the road, but he's not someone to monitor. Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.

Luke Hochevar ? RHP Royals ? One of the most disappointing performances of the 2007 season, Hochevar posted an awful 4.86 ERA in 152 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 138 strikeouts and 47 walks weren't as poor, but they were underwhelming. Hochevar's biggest problem was that he gave up 163 hits, including a whopping 24 home runs. Even worse, neither can be explained away by luck or a particularly harsh pitching environment. The first overall pick of the 2006 draft was simply that bad. And though he wasn't considered a big upside pick at the time of the draft, more was very much expected out of the former Tennessee star.

For those who don't recall, Hochevar was the 40th pick of the 2005 draft by the Dodgers and at one point changed agents and was said to have agreed to sign with the club. However, he backed out of that deal and returned to his previous agent, Scott Boras. Hochevar never came to terms with the Dodgers, and the Royals took the opportunity to pick him first overall after he reentered the draft in 2006. The pick was more cost-driven than talent driven, and I ranked Hochevar the fifth best prospect in the draft at the time.

The question with Hochevar now is if he can retain the form he showed in college. The tall, 6'5" right-hander was more regularly at 95 MPH with his fastball then, but sits in the low-90s now. His curve is also a solid pitch, but neither his slider nor change is much of a weapon. It seems appropriate to give him another year before writing him off as a fifth starter, but we'll need to see progress. Though Hochevar had a nice 2.60 ERA in Triple-A before being promoted, his 12/6 K/BB and two homers allowed aren't encouraging. Though he didn't give up a homer, Hochevar was nonetheless rocked for six runs in 4 2/3 innings in his season debut in the majors this week. Again, it's too early to write him off as a prospect, but he'll need to show improvement before he's an option in any fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, I'm becoming less and less convinced those improvements are coming. Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only leagues.

Sean Rodriguez ? INF Angels ? A middle infield prospect with a wide array of opinions, Rodriguez quickly intrigued prospect watchers in 2006 before disappointing them in 2007. A solidly built 6'1", 215-pound right-hander, Rodriguez had a breakout campaign for High-A Rancho Cucamonga as a 21-year-old in 2006. Rodriguez hit .299 with a .375 on-base percentage to go with 29 doubles, 5 triples, and 24 homers in 455 at-bats. That gave him a nice .543 slugging percentage, and Rodriguez hit even better in a brief 65 at-bat stint with Double-A Arkansas late in the year. The downside was that Rodriguez struck out 144 times in 522 at-bats and there were questions about whether he'd make enough consistent contact at higher levels.

However, Rodriguez had shown an intriguing 85/78 K/BB ratio the previous season, so the worse K/BB ratio in 2006 was more an indicator of going for more power than deterioration in skill. If Rodriguez were able to combine the positive aspects of his 2005 and 2006 campaigns into one season he'd be an elite prospect, so there were plenty of reasons to pay close attention. Indeed, Rodriguez earned some press by jumping out to a fast start last April with a 945 OPS, but he slumped badly in May and was simply mediocre the rest of the year. In the end he regressed from his 2006 performance to a disappointing .254/.345/.423 line, though at least part of that can be attributed to leaving the California League.

Rodriguez continued to strike out far too often last year, so his first priority for 2008 should be to get his selectivity at the plate back to near 2005 levels. If he can rediscover that skill his batting average will follow back to around .290. The second aspect of Rodriguez's game to focus on in his power. He'll be a solid regular if his batting average creeps back up, but he could be significantly more than that if his power spike in 2006 wasn't a California League mirage. Even if his batting average doesn't improve, a bounce back in power could still make Rodriguez above average. He's off to a good start in both regards, hitting .333 with four homers and a 9/7 K/BB ratio in the early going for Triple-A Salt Lake.

We've seen a hot start like this from Rodriguez before, but his potential is big enough that owners need to gamble on it being for real. If his early season at-bats are an indication of better consistency than he's capable of being a quality regular right away. He's not going to get much playing time now even with Howie Kendrick on the disabled list, but he could be an option if a more long-term injury strikes and he's also a trade candidate. That he wasn't considered much of a defender at shortstop hurts his stock, but he's adequate enough at his new position of second base and there should be plenty of teams lining up to give him a shot. I admittedly like Rodriguez more than most, and though he burned me somewhat last year, I'm still on the bandwagon. If things go reasonably well he'll have a few .270-20-15 seasons in his future. Recommendation: Stash away in AL-only keeper leagues; monitor in mixed keeper leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Corpas' Rocky Start

Manny Corpas served up a two-run homer to Aramis Ramirez on Wednesday, blowing a save for the second straight day and fourth time in eight chances this season. The Rockies may decide that Corpas needs a break from closing, in which case Brian Fuentes will reclaim the ninth-inning duties that he held for most of the past three seasons and emerge as a must-grab in all leagues. However, there isn't much in Corpas' underlying numbers to suggest that he's in serious trouble.

Corpas' velocity is down slightly compared to last season, which is somewhat worrisome, but he continues to induce a ton of ground balls. Even after serving up the homer Wednesday he's allowed two long balls in 53 plate appearances, which while much worse than his rate of one per 51 plate appearances last season is far from a concern. Corpas certainly hasn't pitched well thus far, but his biggest problem has been throwing strikes and he figures to be just fine if the Rockies show patience.

While Corpas blows more saves in three weeks than he totaled last season, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* With both Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay scratched from Wednesday's game, the Blue Jays had three catchers in their lineup against the Rays just one day after releasing Frank Thomas. Gregg Zaun started behind the plate, with Rod Barajas at first base and Robinson Diaz at designated hitter, and the trio of backstops combined to go 0-for-11. Rios and Overbay aren't expected to miss much time, but it's rare to see a questionable decision so quickly come back to hurt a team.

Adam Lind wasn't available to immediately replace Thomas on the roster due to a neck injury at Triple-A, but returned to the Syracuse lineup Monday by going 2-for-4. Lind followed that up by going 0-for-4 on Wednesday, but still boasts a .355/.406/.581 hitting line in 17 games at Triple-A and figures to be called up very soon. Once back in Toronto he becomes a must-grab in AL-only leagues and could emerge with mixed-league value eventually.

Meanwhile, Thomas is still looking for work. Reports surfaced Wednesday afternoon that he was close to signing with the A's, but that was apparently put on hold when an unnamed second team swooped in with an offer. As of this writing he's said to be debating which of the two teams to join, but with Mike Sweeney going 2-for-3 with a homer Wednesday night the A's may not feel quite as much urgency to sign Thomas.

* After being examined Wednesday by Dr. James Andrews, Chad Cordero has been diagnosed with tendinitis and general weakness in his shoulder. The good news is that he'll avoid surgery while staying off the disabled list for now, but Cordero can't be counted on until his velocity improves. His average fastball has been clocked at 83.4 miles per hour this season, compared to 89.6 last year, and he doesn't figure to take over ninth-inning duties from Jon Rauch for a while.

* David Ortiz's slump is officially over. Ortiz began the year 3-for-43 (.070) with a lowly .371 OPS, but smacked a two-run homer Wednesday and has now gone 13-for-42 (.310) with two homers and 15 RBIs over the past 10 games. He has at least one RBI in six straight games and is on pace to drive in 125 runs despite sporting an ugly .628 OPS through 23 games. His OPS has risen 250 points in less than a week, so time is running out to make him a buy-low target.

* Pedro Martinez said last week that he hoped to come off the disabled list by early May, but the Mets made it clear that they had a different timetable for him and the most recent report is that he won't even throw a bullpen session for another 10-14 days. While Martinez is well behind where he hoped to be, he's actually ahead of the pace that the Mets initially laid out when they placed him on the disabled list during the season's first week.

* Felipe Lopez owners were disappointed when he lost the second-base job to Ronnie Belliard this spring, but Lopez has now overtaken Belliard for the starting gig while moving into the leadoff spot. I've given up on Lopez developing into the offensive force that he briefly looked capable of becoming a few years ago, but with 24 steals last season and three steals in limited action this year he has enough speed to be a major fantasy asset even if he's not hitting especially well.

AL Quick Hits: Curtis Granderson (hand) returned from the disabled list Wednesday by going 2-for-4 with two walks, two RBIs, and three runs ? Rich Harden (shoulder) threw off a mound Wednesday for the first time and is scheduled to pitch a simulated game Saturday ? Starting on short notice and working on short rest Wednesday after Daisuke Matsuzaka was scratched due to illness, Jon Lester allowed four runs over six innings against the Angels ? Jason Giambi left Tuesday's game with a sore thumb, but was back in the lineup at first base Wednesday ? Rajai Davis doesn't figure to see much action after being claimed off waivers by the A's, but has the speed to be a fantasy factor if he can work his way into regular playing time ? Michael Cuddyer (finger) is expected to come off the shelf Friday and will likely resume hitting third in the Twins' lineup ? Jorge Posada (shoulder) caught his second straight game Wednesday and went 4-for-5 with three doubles ? Dan Johnson was designated for assignment Wednesday without ever playing for the Rays and has just one at-bat all season.

NL Quick Hits: Wayne Krivsky was fired as Reds general manager Wednesday, with longtime Cardinals boss Walt Jocketty replacing him ? Signed by Krivsky to a $46 million deal this winter, Francisco Cordero hasn't had a save chance since April 10 ? Prince Fielder's pair of mammoth homers Wednesday should quiet concerns about his lack of power ? Johan Santana picked up his third victory with seven innings of one-run ball Wednesday against the Nationals ? Tony Gwynn Jr. returned from the disabled list Wednesday, but Gabe Kapler started in center field for the first time in 10 days ? Geovany Soto notched his second four-hit game of the season Wednesday and is now batting .353 with a .451 on-base percentage ? Dropped to seventh in the batting order Wednesday, Troy Tulowitzki homered for the first time this season ? Michael Bourn (groin) said Wednesday that he's hoping to return to the lineup Friday ? Orlando Hernandez (foot) has suffered a setback and will be in a walking boot for at least two more weeks ? Mike Hampton (chest) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and said afterward that he's ready to begin a minor-league rehab assignment.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Delicious Deer Barmes-san
Four weeks into the season, it's getting easier to tell which players are flukes and which ones could be destined for breakout seasons. Of course, it's still very early, and there's always the possibility that this week's popular waiver add could suffer a freak accident. Just ask Clint Barmes. After a great start to 2005, Barmes missed most of the season after falling and breaking his collarbone while lugging a package of deer meat given to him by Todd Helton. Let that be a lesson next time you consider making Bambi for dinner.

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

1. Clint Barmes ? 2B ? COL: With Jayson Nix off to a terrible start, Clint Barmes has begun to see more and more playing time at second base. Barmes also got off to a hot start in 2005, hitting .410 in April before seeing his average slide down to .329 by the time he was taken out by deer meat. He returned to hit just .217 over the last month of that season, but he got his job back in 2006, only to hit .220. Barmes now has two incredibly hot months under his belt, but he also has almost two seasons of mediocrity. The overwhelming odds are that this pace won't last, but he's now been pushed up to the second spot in the order, so ride the hot streak while you can.

2. Moises Alou ? OF ? NYM: Moises Alou is scheduled to return to the Mets next week and should reclaim his spot in left field. When healthy, Alou is a solid contributor in most sized leagues, but he hasn't played more than 123 games in three seasons. Still, he can be had for free in 90% of leagues right now, making him a sound investment.

3. Felipe Lopez ? 2B ? WAS: Lopez was named the Nationals starting second baseman on Wednesday, and will settle into the leadoff spot in the lineup. Lopez struggled at the plate last season, but the move to the more hitter-friendly Nationals Park should help. Expect him to wind up with an average around .260 if he can hold the spot over Ronnie Belliard. While it's unlikely he'll return to his lofty 23-home run campaign of 2005, Lopez should provide plenty of stolen bases for your fantasy team. He had 24 last year, which was actually a step down from 44 in 2006. Lopez has eligibility at both middle infield spots and in the outfield, making him a great addition for mixed league teams looking for speed.

4. Brian Fuentes ? RP ? COL: Aaron Gleeman does a great job analyzing the closer situation in Thursday morning's Daily Dose. Manny Corpas has blown four of his eight save attempts on the young season, plagued mostly by a lack of control. If the Rockies take him out of the high-pressure situation so that he can clear his head, Fuentes will become the interim closer. If you're trolling for save chances, Fuentes makes a nice option this week.

5. Jair Jurrjens ? SP ? ATL : After four starts for the Braves, Jair Jurrjens is currently sitting on a 3.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He's also improved his control, striking out 21 batters while walking just nine. He makes a fine play in NL-only leagues and could be spot started in mixed ones. He certainly should be on the radar of all keeper leaguers.

6. Fred Lewis ? OF ? SF: With Dave Roberts injured, Fred Lewis has seen the majority of work in left field. He is currently hitting .338 with 11 runs scored, and although Lewis has just two stolen bases on the season, he's shown he can be a speed threat. Expect his average to come down to around .270, but he could steal around 15 bases and approach ten home runs with Roberts expected out for three months.

7. Jerry Hairston ? OF ? CIN: The Reds have struggled against left-handed pitchers all season, and brought up Jerry Hairston to provide a spark. Hairston had been red-hot in the minors, and it carried over to his first start in Cincy: he went 4-for-5 with three RBI. He'll make a worthy investment in NL leagues for as long as he's hot.

8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] ? 3B ? ARI : [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] will begin a minor league rehab assignment this week and could be back after seeing about 40 plate appearances. The bad news for Tracy is that Mark Reynolds got off to a blistering start at third base so playing time could be tough to come by. He probably won't see enough at-bats to be a fantasy option unless there's an injury or he's traded, which remains a distinct possibility.

9. Eric Bruntlett ? SS ? PHI : With Jimmy Rollins on the disabled list, Eric Bruntlett is now the starting shortstop in Philadelphia. Since taking over, he's hit under .200 with four runs and an RBI. If you want two more weeks (possibly six, if Rollins' leg is broken) of that, feel free, but you're probably in a deep NL-only league.
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[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

1. Carlos Quentin ? OF ? CHW: We covered Quentin a couple weeks ago, but with Jerry Owens being optioned to Triple-A, Carlos has an improved grasp on the starting job. Quentin has plenty of power at a hitter-friendly park, and his batting average should definitely improve. He's a solid option in standard-sized mixed leagues.

2. John Danks ? SP ? CHW: John Danks has been great in three of his four outings, but he was pounded in his one bad game. Still, the most encouraging news for the young pitcher is that he hasn't given up a home run yet this season after giving up 28 in 26 appearances last season. This might not a fluke: Danks has increased his number of ground balls induced by over 33% this season. There's plenty of risk, but adding Danks to your bench while we figure out if he's for real could provide very valuable results.

3. Matt Stairs ? DH ? TOR: Matt Stairs has been given the DH job following the release of Frank Thomas, which should amount to an extra 150 or so at-bats over the course of the season. Most importantly for the adorably rotund Stairs, he doesn't have to make that long trek out to left field anymore. He should hit around .270 with about 20 home runs, making him a decent fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.

4. Adam Lind? LF ? TOR: With the release of Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart has assumed a role as the primary left fielder in Toronto. That shouldn't last, as the Blue Jays figure to eventually call up Adam Lind and give him starts against most right-handed pitchers. Stewart has minimal fantasy value, but Lind could contribute over 20 home runs if he winds up on pace to get 400 at-bats. First, though, he'll have to be called up. Keep an eye on him ? he could eventually have value in mixed leagues.

5. Eric Hinske ? OF ?TB : Hinske has struggled since becoming a part-time player in 2005, but he's shown that if given regular at-bats he can swat over 15 home runs. With Cliff Floyd on the disabled list, Hinske has earned a job as the Rays' primary DH against right-handed pitchers, and has hit .327 with five home runs. He'll certainly cool off, but will continue to make a nice option for as long as he has regular playing time.

6. Matt Garza ? SP ? TB: Garza is scheduled to come off the disabled list and face the Red Sox on Friday. He's struggled in both his major and minor league starts this season, but we wrote in our draft guide that "the potential is certainly there for him to win 12-15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2008." He's owned in just 1.9% of all leagues, but he's certainly a high-upside option if you're looking to fill out the back of your NL-only rotation. Mixed leaguers should also keep an eye on Garza.

7. Chad Gaudin ? SP ? OAK: The biggest knock against Gaudin last season was that he didn't have an out pitch against left-handed batters. Lefties hit .282 off him last year, and he walked 68 of them while striking out just 49. Right-handed hitters managed just .250 off him, and he enjoyed a 105/32 K/BB ratio. This season, Gaudin's numbers against righties have stayed the same, but he's improved against lefties ? they are hitting just .241 off him. He has still only struck out three while allowing two walks, suggesting that his underlying skills do not support the growth. Gaudin makes a decent add, but only if you play him against teams that aren't stacked with left-handed hitters.

8. Daniel Cabrera ? SP ? BAL: Daniel Cabrera has such enormous potential that it's hard to not get carried away when he throws as well as he did on Wednesday night. The key to his eight inning, two run performance was that he didn't allow a single walk, thanks largely to a impatient hitting from Seattle. Don't let him trick you again ? he hasn't shown that he can sustain success. Still, he's someone that should always be on your watch list just in case he finally figures out how to harness all his amazing ability. If he does, he'd be one of the American league's best pitchers, but it seems unlikely.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Closers causing concern
In the late 1970s, Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver gave his closer, Don Stanhouse, the nickname "Full Pack" because Stanhouse's adventures with ninth-inning walks were enough to make Weaver smoke a full pack of cigarettes in the dugout.

During Todd Jones' first tour of duty with the Detroit Tigers, the closer earned the moniker "Roller coaster" from broadcaster Ernie Harwell because of his many ups and downs during the ninth inning.

Closers have been tormenting managers ? and fantasy owners ? for years. Injuries and ineffectiveness have combined to make the start of this season one of the rockiest for closers in recent memory.

Brad Lidge and Chad Cordero started the season on the disabled list. J.J. Putz blew one of his two save chances before joining them on the DL.

For fantasy owners who came out of their draft with oft-injured Atlanta Braves closer Rafael Soriano but smartly backed him up with Peter Moylan (and his 2.20 career ERA), those plans were derailed when Soriano was sidelined with elbow problems and Moylan developed an elbow strain that could force him to have season-ending surgery.

Although it now looks like Soriano will be able to reclaim the closer's role, he is no lock to stay healthy the rest of the season. So do fantasy owners use a roster spot on Blaine Boyer or Manny Acosta, wait for Mike Gonzalez to return sometime in June or just give up and look elsewhere? (The numbers say go with Boyer.)

It's been that kind of season.

Look at the struggles of last year's AL and NL saves leaders. The Cleveland Indians' Joe Borowski (45 saves) never had his usual velocity coming out of spring training and ended up on the DL after blowing a couple of ninth-inning leads. It turns out he was battling an arm injury the whole time. A 0-2 record and 18.00 ERA shows it.

Meanwhile, Jose Valverde (47 saves) blew two of his first three save chances this season and has been so bad (9.00 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) that the Houston Astros used him last week in a mop-up role to try and boost his confidence.

Even the all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, has two blown saves, an 0-2 record and an 8.22 ERA this season.

On the other hand, several closers who weren't expected to have immediate success have been outstanding in the early going.

In a March blog post, I listed four closers in each league I thought would be the most likely to lose their jobs due to injury or ineffectiveness.

Let's see how that turned out.

AL

1. C.J. Wilson, Rangers

2. George Sherrill, Orioles

3. Troy Percival, Rays

4. Joe Borowski, Indians

NL

1. Kerry Wood, Cubs

2. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks

3. Kevin Gregg, Marlins

4. Brad Lidge, Phillies

Outside of Borowski, the three other American League closers in the group combined for 12 saves and a 0.96 ERA until Wilson had his first melt-down of the season on Sunday in Boston.

In the NL, Wood's durability was the main question but through the season's first three weeks, no closer had apppeared in more games (9) or pitched more innings (10). He also recorded a win and four saves. The others on the NL list have been reasonably effective and aren't in danger of losing their jobs ? yet.

So does any of this seemingly random information from the first three weeks provide any clues as to what to expect the rest of the season?

* First of all, the list of truly reliable closers is a short one.

Only seven pitchers have recorded 30 or more saves in each of the last three seasons: Mariano Rivera (five in a row), Trevor Hoffman (four in a row), Joe Nathan (four in a row), Jason Isringhausen (four in a row), Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez and Jones.

Isringhausen might be the biggest surprise, especially since Adam Wainwright took over for an injured Izzy when the St. Louis Cardinals made their run to the 2006 World Series title.

There's also a subset of younger closers who look like they could be 30-save men for the foreseeable future. Jonathan Papelbon has established himself among the elite. His 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is proof.

Other up-and-comers include Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks and Matt Capps.

* Injuries will continue to thin the ranks.

Wood's injury history still makes it unlikely he will to hold on to the Chicago Cubs closer's job all season. Troy Percival, Eric Gagne and B.J. Ryan also aren't that far removed from major surgeries.

The Washington Nationals' Cordero has been unable to regain his velocity since coming off the disabled list. Jon Rauch looks like he could hold the job for a while.

* Save opportunities will continue to be dispersed randomly.

How else to explain Percival, Francisco Cordero and Takashi Saito combining for five saves over the first three weeks? Chalk it up to a small sample size. No need to worry.

* New closers will emerge later in the season.

Hard throwers who post solid numbers across the board have the qualities to succeed in the closer's role if they're called upon. Equally important, they won't damage your ERA and WHIP while you wait.

Rafael Betancourt is already getting an opportunity to close in Cleveland ? and he could keep the job when Borowski returns.

Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Tony Pena, Santiago Casilla, Matt Lindstrom, Joaquin Benoit and even Joba Chamberlain are worth watching before the next wave of uncertainty hits. One (or more) of them could turn into this season's version of Manny Corpas or Soria ? guys who grabbed the closer's job and never let go.

If all this speculation is too much to sort out, there's another option to consider when looking to save your season: make a trade.

With everyone speculating on closers throughout the season, at least one team is likely to end up with a surplus of saves. By waiting until the dust has settled, it's much easier to figure out the potential impact of acquiring a reliable closer. At that point you may even be able to get one at a discount.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Fast starts may not last


Ervin Santana is pitching like Cy Young. Edwin Jackson has looked like a rotation anchor at times. Brian Bannister is doing his best Greg Maddux impersonation.
But how do we know which of these performances are for real? Breaking down traditional stat categories into their component parts allows us to analyze the underlying skills that drive players' performances. These skills give us a better read on future potential than the surface results themselves.

However, when it comes to ERA, the elements of skill are not the only components. Random chance also plays a factor. So, when evaluating some of these early-season anomalies, we have to also ask: Is it real, or is it luck?

Let's analyze the surprise early performances of several starting pitchers.

For real

* Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays: He was a first-round pick back in 2000 due to his mid-90s sinking fastball. Early-career control issues banished him to the bullpen, but the Jays knew he had greater upside, so he was given another chance as a starter. He had a solid showing last year in his first full season with Toronto: 12 wins, 4.08 ERA and 7.6 strikeout rate per nine innings.

However, signs late last year pointed to even greater gains. His strikeout rate surged to 8.4 for August and 9.1 for September. While he hasn't yet returned to those levels this season, his K/9 rate remains at a still-solid 6.4 during his first four starts.

With a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .350, there is room for further growth, and he could well maintain his current ERA in the mid-3.00's.

* Ervin Santana, Angels: He has hard, moving stuff and had nearly three full major league seasons of experience before he turned 25 in December. He appears to be coming in to his own this year with a 3-0 record and a sub-3.00 ERA. He has been able to sustain a K/9 rate of higher seven.

Skills aside, Santana has been held back in the past by an inability to pitch well on the road. In 2007, he posted a 3.27 ERA at Angel Stadium but a 8.38 ERA away from home. The early returns this year are positive for him. He had a 3.46 ERA and a 6.2 K/9 rate in his first two road starts of '08.

Given his age and skill growth, he'll make for a fantastic breakout target if he can continue to avoid the road lapses that have hindered him in the past.

* Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: He's another who struggled mightily on the road last year (6.37 ERA versus 2.94 at home). But he had a 7.8 overall K/9 rate.

He has looked fantastic in his first four starts this year, posting a 9.3 K/9 rate, including 10.8 in his one road start. He won't likely maintain an ERA below 3.00, but one below 4.00 appears quite possible.

Heed caution

* Brian Bannister, Royals: He had three wins and a 2.42 ERA in his first four starts. This coming after a season in which he won 12 games with a 3.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

But a closer look at this season's numbers shows that he had a mediocre 4.8 K/9 rate, along with a low .240 BABIP. He hasn't displayed a K/9 rate greater than 4.5 over a season he debuted in 2006. He's a soft-tosser, and a lucky one at that. Despite his pinpoint control, there's just not enough here to suggest that he can make a long-term splash.

* Dana Eveland, Athletics: He was shuttled between the rotation and bullpen during his development as a prospect. Spotty control was the problem. After making his major league debut in 2005, his growth stalled.

Now he's looking like a rotation fixture for the A's after coming to them in the Dan Haren trade with Arizona this offseason. His first three starts resulted in a 2.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The third start may be most telling, however. His 4??-inning, two-strikeout outing displayed the type of inconsistency that has held him back in the past.

His .270 BABIP for the season was also on the fringes of being a concern, which means his ERA is likely to head upward.

* Cliff Lee, Indians: He certainly looks like a breakout target on the surface. He allowed just one earned run in his first 22?? innings pitched. He also is showing an ability to dominate, as indicated by his 7.9 K/9 rate. But a deeper analysis reveals one key warning sign.

He has benefited from a ridiculously low .150 BABIP. Based on that figure, he should have about twice as many hits allowed. His rebound this year may be for real, but the magnitude of it is not.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Big Hurt Back in Oakland

Frank Thomas returned to Oakland on Thursday, agreeing to a minimum-salaried deal with the A's after being released by the Blue Jays earlier this week. Thomas takes over as the A's starting designated hitter and jumped right into the lineup in the cleanup spot Thursday afternoon, going 0-for-3 with two walks and a run scored. With Thomas at DH, Mike Sweeney saw his first action of the season at first base while Daric Barton rested against a left-hander.

Thomas figures to start nearly every game and the A's may go with a straight Barton-Sweeney platoon at first base, taking a chunk out of both players' fantasy value. However, Barton has done just fine against lefties thus far and could convince manager Bob Geren that there's no need to sit him against them, in which case Sweeney may be out of a regular role if he doesn't go on a tear over the next few weeks.

It's remarkable that the A's were able to pay just $500,000 for Thomas' huge comeback season in 2006 and now get him back for even less than that, with the Blue Jays paying him $18 million in the meantime. Thomas is unlikely to repeat that huge year that he had with the A's in 2006, but still figures to make the Blue Jays regret letting him go so soon and is well worth gambling on in most leagues if the price is right. A .270 batting average with 20 homers and 75 RBIs is doable.

While one of the all-time kings of power and patience lands back with the team that appreciates his skills better than anyone else, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Francisco Liriano's first two starts back from Tommy John elbow surgery were merely bad, but his outing Thursday afternoon against the A's was a complete disaster. Liriano didn't make it out of the first inning, allowing six runs on five hits and three walks while recording just two outs. He continues to show significantly decreased velocity while struggling to throw strikes, and now sports an 11.32 ERA, 7-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 2.71 WHIP in 10.1 innings.

No move has been announced as of Thursday night, but Liriano seems destined for a return trip to Triple-A in order to work through his issues and get some confidence against lesser hitters. His long-term outlook hasn't changed much, because had the Twins not misguidedly rushed him back to the majors he'd still be rounding into shape at Triple-A, but there's plenty of reason to think that he won't make a positive impact this season. Liriano still has a very long road back.

* Chad Billingsley fell to 0-4 with an ugly 6.53 ERA after allowing five runs in six innings Thursday against the Diamondbacks, which is an extremely disappointing start to the season from one of my favorite breakout candidates heading into the year. However, along with the disappointment his bad first month provides an excellent opportunity to make the 23-year-old right-hander a buy-low target, because he's a good bet to bounce back in a big way.

Billingsley has struggled with his command and there's no dancing around 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA, but it's also worth noting that he's racked up 32 strikeouts in just 20.2 innings. Thursday marked Billingsley's 40th career start, and he's posted a 3.65 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 216.2 innings as a member of the Dodgers' rotation, all before his 24th birthday. With some improved run support and a little better control, he could still have a dozen wins in him this season.

* Manny Corpas blew his fourth save of the year Wednesday and manager Clint Hurdle removed him as closer Thursday, handing ninth-inning duties back to Brian Fuentes. Hurdle called the move "shuffling the deck" and Corpas is expected to slide back into the setup role that he filled last year before taking over for Fuentes as closer. Corpas will likely eventually reclaim the job if he pitches well, but Fuentes picked up a save Thursday and could delay the inevitable for a while.

* A rumor circulated Wednesday that a small break had been discovered in Jimmy Rollins' injured ankle, but everyone involved quickly shot it down as baseless and Rollins was scheduled to take batting practice Thursday. He remains 10 days away from even being eligible to return from the disabled list, but Rollins reportedly hasn't suffered a setback and looks likely to be ready to play again early next month.

AL Quick Hits: Evan Longoria went 2-for-2 with a pair of extra-base hits and a walk Thursday, giving him a .947 OPS through a dozen games ? Back in the lineup Thursday after sitting out two games with the flu, Alex Rios was ejected in the third inning after slamming his helmet to the ground following a strikeout ? Adam Jones had a big game against his former team Thursday, going 3-for-4 with two doubles and three RBIs in a win over the Mariners ? Joba Chamberlain took his first career loss Thursday when Joe Crede delivered a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth inning ? Carlos Gomez returned to the lineup Thursday after a day off in the midst of a brutal slump and went 2-for-5 with his first homer of the season ? Phil Hughes looked to be having his second good start of the season Thursday against the White Sox, but exited after two scoreless innings following a rain delay ? After homering twice Thursday, Donnie Murphy may begin to steal at-bats from Jack Hannahan at third base ? Jermaine Dye is considered day-to-day after leaving Thursday's game with a strained groin.

NL Quick Hits: Albert Pujols reached safely in all five plate appearances Thursday, increasing his on-base percentage to a Barry Bonds-like .525 ? Tim Lincecum tossed 6.1 shutout frames in Thursday's a 1-0 victory over the Padres, improving to 4-0 despite predictably getting minimal run support from the Giants' lineup again ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] was the tough-luck loser against Lincecum, taking the loss despite 10 strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball ? Felipe Lopez reclaimed a starting job earlier this week and celebrated Thursday by going 2-for-4 with a grand slam and six RBIs ? Just 6-for-39 (.154) over his past 10 games, Ryan Howard was benched Thursday even though the Phillies were facing a right-hander ? Tom Gorzelanny handed out seven walks in Thursday's loss and has now issued 15 free passes in 17.2 innings to go along with an ugly 7.81 ERA ? Playing on his 36th birthday Thursday, Chipper Jones went 3-for-3 with a homer and is now batting .442-7-20 through 22 games atlantabraves.com ? With Blake DeWitt demoted to the minors Thursday, Nomar Garciaparra won't have competition until Andy LaRoche returns from the disabled list.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Can you rely on young hurlers?

The ups an downs of young pitchers, Bobby's thoughts on the Dbacks' bats and more ravings from Schultz in this week's Week That Was.

Chad Billingsley . From my seat at Dodger Stadium I got to see the good and bad Chad Billingsley Thursday night. The good ? he struck out 12 with a 91-93 mph fastball and a drop off the shelf curve. The bad ? as many young pitchers do, he lost focus at times and he ended up giving up five runs in six innings including a bomb of a home run to Jeff Salazar, yes Jeff Salazar. Chad is a high risk/high reward roto pitcher. He will notch his K's but there is no way to know whether the ERA will hold up. The risk averse or faint of heart should avoid. Those who need to gamble should. Of course, those in keeper leagues should pounce ? this guy is only 23 and will be something special.

Tim Lincecum: Tim Lincecum struck out nine Pods on Thursday. Given how bad the Giants are, Lincecum being 4-0 is quite something. It just seems that contrary to the warnings about young pitchers above, Lincecum is a safe bet to keep on keeping on. 36 strikeouts in just 29 innings this year says a lot. Of course, there is no way he can continue to roll up the wins on a team as bad as the Giants. However, if you are looking for a rock for your rotation, this is one of the young pitchers you can count on.

Brian Fuentes: Brian Fuentes took back the closer role in Colorado Thursday and notched his first save. Two things to note here: First, the Rockies gave Corpas a sizable contract and will want him to succeed so do not go and cut bait on Corpas any time soon (though owning both would be a nice way to go). Second, the return of Fuentes highlights the value of set up men. Many have ascended to the closer role already this year including Jon Rauch, Peter Moylan (and Manny Acosta), Rafael Betencourt and others. Trust me, more will follow. Look to see if any are good ratio set up men are on your waiver wire. If so, pounce.

Corey Patterson: Corey Patterson's bat showed a little life Thursday when he notched two hits and scored a run. Life with Corey is always a roller coaster. However, by year's end, Patterson should notch 15+ HR and 20+ SB while posting a decent enough batting average. When the weather warms up, the ball will start flying around Great American. If you can get Patterson cheap while his average is under .250, do it. Speed is hard to come by and Patterson has averaged 29 SB over the last 5 years.

Daniel Cabrera: Daniel Cabrera looked strong Wednesday night tossing eight two run innings. Of course, the key was issuing just one walk. That now makes three quality starts in a row -- two on the road and one home against the Yankees. Cabrera, at 27 years old and with 4 major league seasons already under his belt, could very well be ready to go where his ability should take him ? stardom. Remember, however, that you do not need Cabrera to remind people of Doc Gooden in his prime. You just need him to keep his ERA around 4 and WHIP under 1.30 to make those 175+ K's really sweet. Buy.

Rajai Davis: Oakland continued their quest to stockpile outfielders and designated hitters by claiming Rajai Davis off waivers from the Giants. Frankly, this only continues to muddle the Oakland situation. The only thing I can figure is that Billy Beane is hoping Mike Sweeney and Frank Thomas stay healthy and hit so he can trade them to contenders in July. As to the outfield situation, Chris Denorfia is a much better hitting prospect than Davis, but Davis will run. Those in need of speed in AL-only leagues should grab Davis if they can afford rostering a part-timer on an offensively challenged team.

David Ross: David Ross returned from the DL this week. Consistent with his ways of hitting for a truly ugly average, Ross hit well under .200 during his minor league rehab start. So, now that the Reds have three catchers (Ross, Valentin and Bako), what should roto owners do? Well, unless you are truly desperate for power, avoid Ross. He struggles to reach the Mendoza line and will drag down your team average. Bako is on a nice run now, but it will run out. That leaves Javier Valentin ? he of the solid average for the last three years. Valentin is the best bet to take advantage of the Cincy bats and Great American ballpark effects without hurting you team in other ways. He is probably available in some leagues on waivers. If you are in a deep league that requires two catchers, buy.

Fred Lewis: Fred Lewis has 8 hits in his last five games (as of Thursday night). Overall, he is hitting .315 on the season. With Rajai Davis across the bay in Oakland and Dave Roberts both hurt and too old to get serious second half time on a rebuilding team, Lewis should be in the starting lineup to stay. Given that Lewis hit .287 in the majors last year after hitting over .290 in AAA, he is a good bet to be a quality FAAB pickup. Buy.

Jerry Hairston, Jr.: Jerry Hairston Jr. came off the DL and promptly went 4-5 with 3 RBI in his first came back on Tuesday. Since then, the Reds have moved Hairston all around the field to keep him in the lineup. He has played SS, 2B and OF already. This is a bit of a puzzle. On the one hand, Hairston has always had talent. On the other, he never seems to be able to stay healthy. It seems that Dusty Baker is going to use the veteran in a super-utility fashion to spell both infielders and outfielders. If so, he will be eligible at a bunch of positions and be pretty valuable in very deep NL-only leagues. Just remember, he has not been good since 2004 and that is a long time.

Andruw Jones: Andruw Jones remains firmly below the Mendoza line. Watching from my seats at Dodger Stadium Thursday night, it was not hard to see why. First, he chases bad balls. Second, he struts like he is Mickey Mantle. It is kind of like Lou Brown says to "Willey Mays Hayes" in Major League: "You may run like Hayes but you hit like [expletive deleted]": It is hardly a surprise that Jones gets booed loudly every time he struts to the plate. Avoid him at all costs. If you notice him acting more humble and hitting pitches up the middle and to right field rather than trying to pull everything, then you can take a flyer on him. Until then, let someone else wish they could trade him for Mario Mendoza.

And now, next to last, some roto wisdom from Bobby:

Will Tracy Rain on Reynolds' Stellar Season? By Bobby Colton
The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing at the level of a defending NL West champion, sporting the best record in all of baseball as of this writing (4/19/08). A lot of factors have contributed to the Diamondback's rise to the top of a star studded National League that features the Rockies, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, and Brewers. Of course the trade for Dan Haren has helped fortify a rotation that already featured former Cy Young hurlers Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson. The hot bats of first baseman Connor Jackson and twenty year old outfielder Justin Upton have also been big factors in the Dbacks success thus far.

Perhaps the biggest thing the Diamondbacks have going for them is their "replacement" third baseman Mark Reynolds. While [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] has been nursing his countless injuries, Reynolds has been playing better than almost everyone in the National League. Batting fifth in the stacked Arizona batting order, Reynolds has produced numbers that not even Alex Rodriguez has been able to keep up with early on. Reynolds' five homers places him one off the NL lead, his 16 RBIs places him in the top five, and although his average isn't among the league leaders, it is more than adequate.

While Reynolds is producing all-star numbers, Tracy continues to get closer and closer to rejoining an already potent Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. When Tracy does get back into playing shape, the Diamondbacks' brass will have a tough decision to make. Will Reynolds move to a utility role, or will Tracy become the high priced bench player that teams generally try to avoid? The Dodgers have already admitted that they needed to make Juan Pierre an expensive bench player, and the Diamondbacks might have to follow suit with Tracy.

Tracy and Reynolds have both played third base almost exclusively in their Major League careers. Tracy has played limited first base but that position is monopolized by the red hot Connor Jackson, a hitter ready to take his game to the next level. Reynolds has played some second base, but Orlando Hudson would also be a costly bench player (there would also be a mutiny from the DBacks hurlers if they lost Hudson's glove up the middle). Finally, while both Reynolds and Tracy have had limited experience in the outfield, there is no room there either. The Diamondbacks' outfield is pretty steadfast with Eric Byrnes coming off of a career year, Justin Upton, who's playing just as well as Reynolds and has an even brighter upside, and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL], who is in the same position as Upton.
At the very least one can assume neither will be demoted and neither will be exclusively benched. That makes a platoon situation the most likely scenario. Moving Tracy could be another option for the Diamondbacks, but that is a long shot considering his almost permanent home on the DL.

Regardless of how the situation pans out, fantasy owners should be cautious with the Reynolds/Tracy situation. It might be time to trade Reynolds while his value is high for a quality player with a guaranteed job.

And finally, this week's Schultz Says: "I think this might be the appropriate time to stop, pause and reflect on what Chipper Jones has accomplished this year. The man known to Mike Piazza as Larry has hit 7 home runs, driven in 20 runs, scored another 18 himself and has his average sitting at .442 while I write this. Why should we stop and reflect at this time? Because it's good to honor those we admire while they are still amongst us and if history has taught us anything, we should know that Chipper will not be the roto-land faithful much longer. It is a sad reality that Chipper is quite brittle and even though he played in 134 games last season, you have to go back to 2003 to find a season in which he went wire-to-wire. Let us toast Chipper now; we shall be mourning his departure quite soon.

Understandably unhappy with his first three starts, the Twins have demoted Francisco Liriano to AAA. Many will look at this as a foreboding sign and cut bait on the ridiculously talented lefty; if they do, they will regret the decision. It takes approximately 18 months to fully recover from Tommy John surgery and Liriano doesn't reach that point until May of 2008. Perhaps because he's 24 years old everyone expected him to regain his form sooner. Since being called up, Liriano has struggled with his control and although he showed glimpses of his old self in his first start against the Royals simply isn't himself yet. Use this information wisely, Liriano is a fantastic investment who could provide a roto-staff with a nice boost come June or July when aces will be in short supply. Just be patient.

My favorite story of the week is Frank Thomas getting cut by the Blue Jays for being a big ol' jerk. Not since Milton Bradley had to have said the most vile things imaginable to Eric Wedge to get him immediately traded to the Dodgers has a locker room tirade provoked this quick a response. Nobody can fault the Jays for wanting to sit the Big Hurt while he's hitting .159 but releasing the notoriously poor starting DH seemed a tad drastic. He's back in Oakland where he had his career resurgence two seasons ago. If someone in your league emulated the Blue Jays and let the Big Hurt go, he's worth grabbing and stashing away. His second halves are usually quite good.

Response: Listen to Bobby and Schultz this week ? they are right on.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Great Scott, he's back!


The return of Scott Kazmir brings a boost to the Rays, significant strikeouts for his fantasy owners, and a reminder of a terrible trade for disgruntled Mets fans. Kazmir has always pitched well against Boston, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 1.26 WHIP against them in his career. You might as well start him, since there's always the chance an arm injury could sideline him again soon.
[SIZE=+1]Two-Start Pitchers[/SIZE]

American League

Must Starts
Roy Halladay - @BOS (Daisuke Matsuzaka), CHW (Javier Vazquez)
Daisuke Matsuzaka ? TOR (Roy Halladay), TB (Jason Hammel)
Javier Vazquez ? BAL (Daniel Cabrera), @TOR (Roy Halladay)
Fausto Carmona ? SEA (Carlos Silva), KC (Brett Tomko)
Jon Garland ? OAK (Chad Gaudin), BAL (Daniel Cabrera)

Other Options
Joe Saunders ? OAK (Greg Smith), BAL (Undecided)
Daniel Cabrera - @CHW (Javier Vazquez), @LAA (Jon Garland)
Mike Mussina - @CLE (Aaron Laffey), SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Chad Gaudin - @LAA (Jon Garland), TEX (Vicente Padilla)
Carlos Silva - @CLE (Fausto Carmona), @NYY (Phil Hughes)
Kenny Rogers - @NYY (Phil Hughes), @MIN (Boof Bonser)
Scott Feldman ? KC (Brett Tomko), @OAK (Greg Smith)
Brett Tomko - @TEX (Scott Feldman), @CLE (Fausto Carmona)
Phil Hughes ? DET (Kenny Rogers), SEA (Carlos Silva)
Jason Hammel - @BAL (Undecided), @BOS (Daisuke Matsuzaka)
Greg Smith - @LAA (Joe Saunders) TEX (Luis Mendoza)
Boof Bonser ? CHW (Gavin Floyd), DET (Kenny Rogers)

National League

Must Starts
Johan Santana ? PIT (Ian Snell), @ARI (Dan Haren)
Cole Hamels ? SD (Greg Maddux), SF (Matt Cain)
Dan Haren ? HOU (Chris Sampson), NYM (Johan Santana) newyorkmets.com
Ian Snell - @NYM (Johan Santana), @WAS (John Lannan)
Matt Cain ? COL (Kendry Morales), @PHI (Cole Hamels)
Derek Lowe - @FLA (Andrew Miller), @COL (Kendry Morales)

Other Options
Greg Maddux - @PHI (Cole Hamels), @FLA (Andrew Miller)
Bronson Arroyo - @STL (Todd Wellemeyer), @ATL (John Smoltz) atlantabraves.com
Ben Sheets - @CHC (Jason Marquis), @HOU (Chris Sampson)
Jason Marquis ? MIL (Ben Sheets), @STL (Todd Wellemeyer)
Tom Glavine - @WAS (Tim Redding), CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Tim Redding ? ATL (Tom Glavine), PIT (Tom Gorzelanny)
Franklin Morales - @SF (Matt Cain), LAD (Derek Lowe)
Todd Wellemeyer ? CIN (Bronson Arroyo), CHC (Jason Marquis)
Tom Gorzelanny - @NYM (Oliver Perez), @WAS (Tim Redding)
Chris Sampson - @ARI (Dan Haren), MIL (Ben Sheets)
Andrew Miller ? LAD (Derek Lowe), SD (Greg Maddux)

[SIZE=+1]Possible Streamers[/SIZE]

The following pitchers are available in half of mixed leagues and should make decent starts next week:

American League

Wednesday 4/30 ? Gavin Floyd @ MIN ? Floyd has had a great start to the season, and has a good match-up against the Minnesota offense in a stadium that limits offense.

Friday 5/2 ? Armando Galarraga @ MIN ? Galarraga has done a great job filling in for Dontrelle Willis, and should his streak at the Metrodome.

Friday 5/2 ? Joe Blanton vs. TEX ? Blanton should be a nice start against the Rangers on Friday. He had a 1.08 WHIP in two starts against them last season, and even though that resulted in a 4.15 ERA, he had 13 strikeouts in 13 innings.

National Leagues

Monday 4/28 ? Todd Wellemeyer vs. CIN ? Wellemeyer is off to a strong start, and he has a 2.03 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his career against the Reds.

Tuesday 4/29 ? Aaron Cook @ SF ? Cook is sitting on a 2.91 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He won't stay this hot all season, but the success should continue in San Francisco.

Friday 5/2 - Jair Jurrjens vs. CIN ? Jurrjens is also off to a great start, and while he's not widely owned, he should have a decent outing at home against the Reds.

Saturday 5/3 ? Ian Snell @ WAS ? Snell has a career 1.17 WHIP and a 3.91 ERA against the Nationals, with 22 strikeouts in 23 innings.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Total Games[/SIZE]

American League
7: BAL, CLE, LAA, NYY, OAK
6: BOS, CHW, DET, KC, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR
5: MIN

National League
7: PIT
6: ARI, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, SD, SF, STL, WAS
5: ATL

[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

American League
Baltimore - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Boston - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties, 1 vs. Undecided
Minnesota - 4 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay - 4 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties, 1 vs. Undecided
Texas - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Yankees face three left-handed pitchers, which should help Johnny Damon (.305 vs. LHP over last three years),

Toronto has three games against lefties, which should help Lyle Overbay, who has hit lefties significantly better since last season. It should help Gregg Zaun (.271 career vs. LHP)

National League:
Arizona - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 5 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Florida - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Houston - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers - 1 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 2 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
San Diego - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Washington - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties

Notes:
Atlanta doesn't face a left-handed pitcher this week, which could hurt Jeff Francoeur (.317 vs. LHP), Matt Diaz (.356 vs. LHP), Mark Teixeira (.342 vs. LHP) and Yuniel Escobar (.355 vs. LHP). Chipper Jones (.274 vs. LHP) should be happy.

The Reds won't face any lefties, which is bad news for Edwin Encarnacion (.267 vs. LHP), Brandon Phillips (.296 vs. LHP) and Jeff Keppinger (.338 vs. LHP). It's good news for Ryan Freel (.250 vs. LHP), Scott Hatteberg (.235 vs. LHP).

The Cubs don't face a lefty either, which is good news for Felix Pie's (.111 career vs. LHP) playing time.

The Dodgers face five lefties, which should help Russell Martin (.356 vs. LHP) and Matt Kemp (.333 vs. LHP).

The Brewers don't face a lefty, which could hurt J.J. Hardy (.294 vs. LHP), Corey Hart (.322 vs. LHP) and Gabe Kapler (.291 vs. LHP).

The Pirates face five lefties, which should help help Xavier Nady (.319 vs LHP over last three years).

The Padres face four lefties this week, which hurts Jim Edmonds (.255 vs. LHP), Adrian Gonzalez (.268 vs. LHP) and Tadahito Iguchi (.259 vs. LHP) It should benefit Kevin Kouzmanoff (.343 vs. LHP) and Scott Hairston (.271 vs. LHP).

Washington also has four games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP) and Austin Kearns (.293 career vs. LHP). Christian Guzman (.210 vs. LHP) could struggle.

[SIZE=+1]The Injury Bug[/SIZE]

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Howie Kendrick ? 2B ? Should return early in week.
Chipper Jones ? 3B ? Day-to-day with back cramps
Tom Glavine ? SP ? Should start Tuesday
Rafael Soriano ? RP ? Should resume as closer by mid-week
Mike Cameron ? OF ? Suspension ends Tuesday
Alfonso Soriano ? OF- Should be back May 1
Jimmy Rollins ? SS ? Could be back at end of draft
Shane Victorino ? OF ? Should be back on Tuesday
David Ortiz ? DH ? Day-to-day with bruised knee
Scott Kazmir ? SP ? Should pitch on May 3 or 4

[SIZE=+1]Waiver Wired[/SIZE]

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Carlos Quentin
2. John Danks
3. Matt Stairs
4. Adam Lind
5. Eric Hinske

NL

1. Brian Fuentes
2. Clint Barmes
3. Moises Alou
4. Felipe Lopez
5. Jair Jurrjens

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

May Third Basemen Rankings


It's time for the May player rankings. As always, players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list.


Third basemen

<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Team</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Alex Rodriguez</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>David Wright</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL]</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Miguel Cabrera</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Chone Figgins</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Aramis Ramirez</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Garrett Atkins</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Chipper Jones</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Ryan Zimmerman</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Alex Gordon</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Adrian Beltre</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Edwin Encarnacion</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Hank Blalock</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Mike Lowell</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Bill Hall</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Joe Crede</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Kevin Kouzmanoff</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Troy Glaus</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Mark Reynolds</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Evan Longoria</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Scott Rolen</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Melvin Mora</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Pedro Feliz</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Casey Blake</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Ty Wigginton</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL]</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Jorge Cantu</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL]</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Andy LaRoche</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Josh Fields</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Mike Lamb</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Eric Chavez</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Brandon Inge</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Nomar Garciaparra</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Jack Hannahan</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Dallas McPherson</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Rich Aurilia</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Wilson Betemit</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Scott Moore</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Blake DeWitt</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Greg Dobbs</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Morgan Ensberg</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Chase Headley</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Andy Marte</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Alberto Callaspo</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Ian Stewart</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Alex Cintron</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Wes Helms</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Willy Aybar</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL]</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rising: Chipper Jones (9 to 8), Alex Gordon (11 to 10), Joe Crede (31 to 16), Mark Reynolds (30 to 19), Evan Longoria (27 to 20), Jorge Cantu (29 1B to 27), Andy LaRoche (34 to 29), Blake DeWitt (58 to 40), Ian Stewart (53 to 46)

Falling: Troy Glaus (15 to 18), Melvin Mora (19 to 22), Pedro Feliz (18 to 23), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] (22 to 28), Josh Fields (17 to 30), Eric Chavez (26 to 32), Nomar Garciaparra (29 to 34), Wilson Betemit (33 to 38), Willy Aybar (40 to 49), Corey Koskie (41 to NR), Scott Spiezio (43 to NR)

- The only change at the top of the third-base rankings has Jones and Ryan Zimmerman switching spots. However, both Aramis Ramirez and Garrett Atkins are moving up about 20 spots apiece in the top 250.

- Garciaparra's latest DL stint gets LaRoche into the top 30. He could be a week away from his chance to become an everyday player for the Dodgers. DeWitt will fill in for now as LaRoche's rehab assignment continues.

- I didn't like lowering Fields to 30 when he could come up and hit 25 homers over the rest of the year if he somehow caught a break. Still, it seems highly unlikely that either he or Crede will be traded in the near future.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

May Shortstop Rankings

It's time for the May player rankings. As always, players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list.


Shortstops

<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Team</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Hanley Ramirez</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jose Reyes</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Jimmy Rollins</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Derek Jeter</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Troy Tulowitzki</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Michael Young</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Miguel Tejada</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Carlos Guillen</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Rafael Furcal</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Orlando Cabrera</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Yunel Escobar</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Stephen Drew</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Edgar Renteria</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jhonny Peralta</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Julio Lugo</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Ryan Theriot</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Bobby Crosby</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Yuniesky Betancourt</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Erick Aybar</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>J.J. Hardy</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Khalil ******</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Felipe Lopez</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Jason Bartlett</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>David Eckstein</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Cristian Guzman</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Jeff Keppinger</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Brendan Harris</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Jack Wilson</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2653"]Alex Gonzalez[/URL]</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Clint Barmes</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Juan Uribe</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Brendan Ryan</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Adam Everett</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Tony Pena Jr.</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Mark Loretta</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Omar Vizquel</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Ronny Cedeno</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Nick Punto</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Cesar Izturis</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Jed Lowrie</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rising: Yunel Escobar (12 to 11), Ryan Theriot (20 to 16), Bobby Crosby (23 to 17), Erick Aybar (25 to 19), Cristian Guzman (29 to 25), Jeff Keppinger (32 to 26), Clint Barmes (48 to 30), Jed Lowrie (56 to 40)

Falling: Jose Reyes (1 to 2), Troy Tulowitzki (4 to 5), Khalil ****** (18 to 21), Jason Bartlett (17 to 23), Jack Wilson (22 to 28), Tony Pena Jr. (28 to 34), Omar Vizquel (31 to 36)

- I had Reyes with an 18-steal edge on Hanley Ramirez in the projections, making up for a projected 20-point disadvantage in average and a deficit of seven homers. However, he's done nothing this year to suggest it will even be that close. If Willie Randolph can't get any more out of him than this, then it's time for the Mets to find a new manager.

- The move to drop Jayson Nix from the roster makes Barmes the Rockies' primary second baseman for now. Jeff Baker could also figure into the mix, and Omar Quintanilla might be called up soon. I don't see anyone from that group really setting himself apart. Baker has the most upside, but it's unrealistic to expect the Rockies live with his glove.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

May Outfielder Rankings

It's time for the May player rankings. As always, players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list.




Outfielders

<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Team</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Matt Holliday</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Carl Crawford</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Vladimir Guerrero</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Nick Markakis</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Carlos Beltran</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Ichiro Suzuki</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Alex Rios</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Grady Sizemore</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Manny Ramirez</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Alfonso Soriano</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Bobby Abreu</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Curtis Granderson</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Carlos Lee</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Magglio Ordonez</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Adam Dunn</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Corey Hart</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Eric Byrnes</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Vernon Wells</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Hunter Pence</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Jeff Francoeur</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Torii Hunter</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Delmon Young</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Johnny Damon</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Nick Swisher</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Jacoby Ellsbury</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Shane Victorino</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Matt Kemp</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Jason Bay</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Brad Hawpe</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Kosuke Fukudome</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Hideki Matsui</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Josh Hamilton</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Pat Burrell</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Raul Ibanez</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Jeremy Hermida</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Jermaine Dye</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Michael Bourn</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Nate McLouth</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Willy Taveras</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Lastings Milledge</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Michael Cuddyer</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Justin Upton</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Andruw Jones</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Rick Ankiel</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Adam Jones</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>J.D. Drew</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Josh Willingham</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Gary Matthews Jr.</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Mike Cameron</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Ken Griffey Jr.</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Carlos Quentin</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Austin Kearns</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Franklin Gutierrez</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Juan Pierre</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Melky Cabrera</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Mark Teahen</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Andre Ethier</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL]</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Aaron Rowand</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Ryan Church</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Garret Anderson</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Luke Scott</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Milton Bradley</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Xavier Nady</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Jack Cust</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Chris Duncan</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>68</TD><TD>Wily Mo Pe?a</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>69</TD><TD>Geoff Jenkins</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>70</TD><TD>Randy Winn</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>71</TD><TD>Jason Kubel</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>72</TD><TD>Brian Giles</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>73</TD><TD>David DeJesus</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>74</TD><TD>Carlos Gomez</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>75</TD><TD>Fred Lewis</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>76</TD><TD>Corey Patterson</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>77</TD><TD>Jacque Jones</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>78</TD><TD>Moises Alou</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>79</TD><TD>Barry Bonds</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>80</TD><TD>Jonny Gomes</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>81</TD><TD>David Murphy</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>82</TD><TD>Adam Lind</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>83</TD><TD>Jayson Werth</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>84</TD><TD>Skip Schumaker</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>85</TD><TD>Coco Crisp</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>86</TD><TD>Matt Stairs</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>87</TD><TD>Scott Hairston</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>88</TD><TD>Reed Johnson</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>89</TD><TD>Travis Buck</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>90</TD><TD>John Bowker</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>91</TD><TD>Jay Bruce</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>92</TD><TD>David Dellucci</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>93</TD><TD>Kenny Lofton</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>94</TD><TD>Matt Diaz</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>95</TD><TD>Colby Rasmus</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>96</TD><TD>Ryan Sweeney</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>97</TD><TD>Mark Kotsay</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>98</TD><TD>Cameron Maybin</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>99</TD><TD>Frank Catalanotto</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>100</TD><TD>Jim Edmonds</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>101</TD><TD>Ryan Ludwick</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>102</TD><TD>Joey Gathright</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>103</TD><TD>Emil Brown</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>104</TD><TD>Alfredo Amezaga</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>105</TD><TD>Shannon Stewart</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>106</TD><TD>Gregor Blanco</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>107</TD><TD>Carlos Gonzalez</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>108</TD><TD>Angel Pagan</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>109</TD><TD>Jerry Hairston</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>110</TD><TD>Felix Pie</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>111</TD><TD>Tony Gwynn Jr.</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>112</TD><TD>Cliff Floyd</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>113</TD><TD>Ryan Freel</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>114</TD><TD>Marlon Byrd</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>115</TD><TD>Elijah Dukes</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>116</TD><TD>Chris Denorfia</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>117</TD><TD>Craig Monroe</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>118</TD><TD>Ryan Spilborghs</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>119</TD><TD>Alexei Ramirez</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>120</TD><TD>Matt Murton</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rising: Manny Ramirez (12 to 9), Curtis Granderson (18 to 12), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] (21 to 16), Nick Swisher (30 to 25), Jacoby Ellsbury (40 to 26), Kosuke Fukudome (41 to 31), Josh Hamilton (42 to 33), Pat Burrell (50 to 34), Nate McLouth (59 to 39), Justin Upton (67 to 43), Mike Cameron (62 to 50), Carlos Quentin (88 to 52), Andre Ethier (69 to 58), Xavier Nady (75 to 65), Carlos Gomez (89 to 74), Fred Lewis (147 to 75), David Murphy (138 to 81), Adam Lind (141 to 82), Skip Schumaker (114 to 84), Reed Johnson (121 to 88), John Bowker (204 to 90), Ryan Sweeney (129 to 96), Gregor Blanco (178 to 106), Jerry Hairston Jr. (190 to 109)

Falling: Alfonso Soriano (4 to 10), Eric Byrnes (13 to 18), Hunter Pence (15 to 20), Matt Kemp (23 to 28), Willy Taveras (27 to 40), Andruw Jones (29 to 44), Juan Pierre (43 to 55), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL] (48 to 59), Barry Bonds (57 to 79), Kenny Lofton (74 to 93), Felix Pie (91 to 110), Ryan Freel (90 to 113), Marlon Byrd (92 to 114), Dave Roberts (76 to NR), Jerry Owens (87 to NR)

- Two changes in the top 10. Soriano is expected back before the end of the week, but because of his leg problems, he still falls from four to 10. Also, Ramirez overtakes Bobby Abreu to move up three spots.

- Byrnes slides from 13 to 18. I had him dropping from 50 to 38 steals, but because of his leg issues, 25 might be more realistic now.

- Even though he's been truly awful so far this year, I'm not souring on Delmon Young just yet. The good news is that he is doing more running that he did last year. The power will surely come. He's not going to stop swinging at bad pitches any day soon, but he will start making better contact with some of his hacks.



- With his 25-game suspension over, Cameron climbs 12 spots. He'll be back in center field on Tuesday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

May Starting Pitcher Rankings

It's time for the May player rankings. As always, players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list



Starting pitchers

<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Team</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Johan Santana</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jake Peavy</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Brandon Webb</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Josh Beckett</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Erik Bedard</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Cole Hamels</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Carlos Zambrano</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Felix Hernandez</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>C.C. Sabathia</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Justin Verlander</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Dan Haren</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Roy Halladay</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Aaron Harang</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Fausto Carmona</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Tim Hudson</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Matt Cain</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Roy Oswalt</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Daisuke Matsuzaka</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Tim Lincecum</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>John Smoltz</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>John Lackey</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Scott Kazmir</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Yovani Gallardo</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Jered Weaver</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Ben Sheets</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Brett Myers</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Brad Penny</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>A.J. Burnett</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Ian Snell</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Adam Wainwright</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Javier Vazquez</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Ted Lilly</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Chien-Ming Wang</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>James Shields</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>John Maine</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Derek Lowe</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Chad Billingsley</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Oliver Perez</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Cliff Lee</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Randy Johnson</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Johnny Cueto</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Dustin McGowan</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Zack Greinke</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Andy Pettitte</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Pedro Martinez</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Rich Hill</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Mark Buehrle</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Clay Buchholz</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Greg Maddux</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Joe Blanton</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Hiroki Kuroda</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Shaun Marcum</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Micah Owings</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Joe Saunders</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Kyle Lohse</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Edinson Volquez</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Ervin Santana</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Scott Olsen</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Jake Westbrook</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Jair Jurrjens</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Jeremy Guthrie</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Randy Wolf</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Rich Harden</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Daniel Cabrera</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Kevin Millwood</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Francisco Liriano</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>68</TD><TD>Jeff Francis</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>69</TD><TD>John Danks</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>70</TD><TD>Phil Hughes</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>71</TD><TD>Jeremy Bonderman</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>72</TD><TD>Matt Garza</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>73</TD><TD>Homer Bailey</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>74</TD><TD>Jon Garland</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>75</TD><TD>Scott Baker</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>76</TD><TD>Gil Meche</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>77</TD><TD>Bronson Arroyo</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>78</TD><TD>Tom Gorzelanny</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>79</TD><TD>Manny Parra</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>80</TD><TD>Tim Wakefield</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>81</TD><TD>Brian Bannister</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>82</TD><TD>Chris Carpenter</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>83</TD><TD>Carlos Silva</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>84</TD><TD>Carlos Villanueva</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>85</TD><TD>Max Scherzer</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>86</TD><TD>Tom Glavine</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>87</TD><TD>Ubaldo Jimenez</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>88</TD><TD>Dana Eveland</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>89</TD><TD>Jon Lester</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>90</TD><TD>Clayton Kershaw</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>91</TD><TD>Aaron Cook</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>92</TD><TD>Mark Prior</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>93</TD><TD>Ian Kennedy</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>94</TD><TD>Kevin Slowey</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>95</TD><TD>Wandy Rodriguez</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>96</TD><TD>Kelvim Escobar</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>97</TD><TD>Nick Blackburn</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>98</TD><TD>Mike Mussina</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>99</TD><TD>Todd Wellemeyer</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>100</TD><TD>Jarrod Washburn</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>101</TD><TD>Curt Schilling</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>102</TD><TD>Barry Zito</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>103</TD><TD>Chuck James</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>104</TD><TD>Jason Schmidt</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>105</TD><TD>Bartolo Colon</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>106</TD><TD>Chris Volstad</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>107</TD><TD>Dave Bush</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>108</TD><TD>Nate Robertson</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>109</TD><TD>Mike Pelfrey</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>110</TD><TD>Dontrelle Willis</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rising: Dan Haren (13 to 11), Tim Hudson (20 to 17), Tim Lincecum (30 to 20), John Lackey (27 to 22), Yovani Gallardo (32 to 24), Brad Penny (37 to 28), Ian Snell (38 to 30), Adam Wainwright (49 to 31), Javier Vazquez (42 to 32), Cliff Lee (136 to 40), Johnny Cueto (61 to 42), Zack Greinke (68 to 44), Micah Owings (103 to 54), Joe Saunders (83 to 55), Kyle Lohse (76 to 56), Edinson Volquez (109 to 57), Ervin Santana (82 to 58), Scott Olsen (86 to 59), John Danks (98 to 69), Homer Bailey (95 to 73), Brian Bannister (107 to 81), Max Scherzer (166 to 85), Clayton Kershaw (143 to 90), Nick Blackburn (141 to 97), Todd Wellemeyer (129 to 99), Chris Volstad (208 to 106)

Falling: Erik Bedard (3 to 5), C.C. Sabathia (7 to 9), Justin Verlander (5 to 10), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] (11 to 14), John Smoltz (16 to 20), Ted Lilly (25 to 34), Chad Billingsley (31 to 38), Pedro Martinez (22 to 46), Rich Hill (34 to 47), Clay Buchholz (39 to 49), Francisco Liriano (28 to 67), Phil Hughes (36 to 70), Jeremy Bonderman (47 to 71), Jon Garland (54 to 74), Bronson Arroyo (45 to 77), Tom Gorzelanny (53 to 78), Ubaldo Jimenez (65 to 87), Ian Kennedy (73 to 93), Barry Zito (66 to 102), Dave Bush (62 to 107), Orlando Hernandez (84 to NR), Kenny Rogers (85 to NR), Andrew Miller (87 to NR)

- I wish I could hold off another week before ranking either Hudson or Smoltz. Hudson had a great spring and started off very strong, only to have velocity issues and then a brief start Saturday that led to rumors his arm is bothering him. If there's nothing to it, there'd be every reason to believe he'll be a top-20 starter the rest of the way. Still, I am nervous about having him there. As for Smoltz, I was planning on keeping him at No. 16, but Sunday's setback dropped him five spots. If he returns to the DL, he'd fall at least 10 more. He's probably pitched through pain as frequently as any starter in the game, but it seemed to be a little too much for him against the Mets.

- Roy Oswalt has been effective enough in his last three starts that he maintains his preseason ranking. I still don't think he's what he was, but a true collapse never appeared likely.

- The drop in Brett Myers' velocity is something to watch going forward. He's not giving up a lot of hits, but those that he is allowing do seem to be traveling a long way.

- Buchholz has strung together a pair of excellent outings, but still drops 10 spots due to the fear that he could be replaced in the rotation by Bartolo Colon. The Red Sox surely know that he's one of their five-best starters, but they could manage his innings count better if he spends a month in Pawtucket.

- It appears that Scherzer will be utilized as a reliever for now after being called up to the majors for the first time on Sunday. Still, NL-only leaguers have to grab him anyway. If he moves into the rotation, mixed leaguers should take a chance on him. He was the best pitcher in Triple-A this month.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

May Relief Pitcher Rankings

It's time for the May player rankings. As always, players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list.






Relievers


<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Team</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>J.J. Putz</TD><TD>SEA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jonathan Papelbon</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Joe Nathan</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Mariano Rivera</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Takashi Saito</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Billy Wagner</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Francisco Rodriguez</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Bobby Jenks</TD><TD>CWS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Huston Street</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Joakim Soria</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Francisco Cordero</TD><TD>CIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Trevor Hoffman</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Matt Capps</TD><TD>PIT</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Brad Lidge</TD><TD>PHI</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Jose Valverde</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Jason Isringhausen</TD><TD>STL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>B.J. Ryan</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>C.J. Wilson</TD><TD>TEX</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Todd Jones</TD><TD>DET</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Joba Chamberlain</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Brian Wilson</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Eric Gagne</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Kevin Gregg</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Troy Percival</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Rafael Betancourt</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Brandon Lyon</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>George Sherrill</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Kerry Wood</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Rafael Soriano</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Manny Corpas</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Jon Rauch</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Carlos Marmol</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Brian Fuentes</TD><TD>COL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Chad Cordero</TD><TD>WAS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Jonathan Broxton</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Tony Pe?a</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Pat Neshek</TD><TD>MIN</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Heath Bell</TD><TD>SD</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Joe Borowski</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Jeremy Accardo</TD><TD>TOR</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Hideki Okajima</TD><TD>BOS</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Manny Acosta</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Chad Qualls</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Scot Shields</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Bob Howry</TD><TD>CHC</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Juan Cruz</TD><TD>ARZ</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Doug Brocail</TD><TD>HOU</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Mike Gonzalez</TD><TD>ATL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Guillermo Mota</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Duaner Sanchez</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Rafael Perez</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Matt Lindstrom</TD><TD>FLA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Aaron Heilman</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Scott Proctor</TD><TD>LA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Santiago Casilla</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Justin Speier</TD><TD>ANA</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Chad Bradford</TD><TD>BAL</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>David Riske</TD><TD>MLW</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Masahide Kobayashi</TD><TD>CLE</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Andrew Brown</TD><TD>OAK</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rising: Joakim Soria (13 to 10), Brad Lidge (19 to 14), B.J. Ryan (23 to 17), Todd Jones (25 to 19), Rafael Betancourt (35 to 25), Jon Rauch (39 to 31), Brian Fuentes (41 to 33), Manny Acosta (68 to 42), Juan Cruz (64 to 46), Doug Brocail (118 to 47), Mike Gonzalez (70 to 48), Guillermo Mota (121 to 49), Duaner Sanchez (108 to 50)

Falling: Takashi Saito (4 to 5), Francisco Rodriguez (6 to 7), Trevor Hoffman (10 to 12), Rafael Soriano (14 to 29), Manny Corpas (16 to 30), Chad Cordero (18 to 34), Joe Borowski (24 to 39), Jeremy Accardo (33 to 40), Matt Lindstrom (42 to 52), Aaron Heilman (43 to 53), Joaquin Benoit (44 to NR), Al Reyes (46 to NR), Tom Gordon (47 to NR)

- Seeing Ryan end up as a setup man for Jesse Carlson of all pitchers on Sunday was unexpected, but all indications were that he was going to get a chance to go for a two-inning save before the Jays increased their lead from one run to three. Carlson isn't a fantasy sleeper at all.

- George Sherrill has been quite impressive, but I can't see moving him up very far when there's at least a 50/50 chance that he'll be a setup man for a contender come July or August.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Shoulder Sends Posada to DL

Jorge Posada's shoulder was healthy enough for him to start three games behind the plate last week after going 10 days without being able to catch, but the injury has apparently worsened and he was placed on the disabled list Monday for the first time in his 14-year career. Posada is scheduled to be examined by Dr. James Andrews, at which point the Yankees should have a clearer picture regarding his return timetable.

Posada called the injury "probably the biggest disappointment of my career" and explained that he planned to "find out what's really bothering me and make a wise decision," which certainly makes it sounds like he expects to miss significant action and may be worried about surgery. It obviously makes little sense to speculate too much until further details are revealed, but in the meantime fantasy non-factors Jose Molina and Chris Stewart will split catching duties.

While the Yankees await word on the player they're perhaps least equipped to capably replace, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Hank Blalock underwent an MRI on his injured hamstring Monday and has been diagnosed with a partial tear that's expected to sideline him for 3-4 weeks. With Blalock out Ramon Vazquez will likely be thrust into regular action at third base for the second straight season, which isn't saying much for the Rangers' infield depth given that he's 31 years old and has hit just .249/.320/.342 in nearly 1,700 career trips to the plate.

Vazquez figures to start against most right-handers, with rookie German Duran likely getting the nod against southpaws. Duran is eight years younger than Vazquez and hit .300/.352/.525 with 22 homers and 11 steals in 130 games at Double-A last season, so the last-place Rangers would be smart to give him an extended look. Duran is far from a great prospect thanks to poor on-base skills, but unlike Vazquez he has a chance to actually be a decent regular at some point.

* Dusty Baker has rightfully taken plenty of heat over the years for his love of mediocre veterans, so the first-year Reds manager deserves credit for going against his reputation by making rookie Joey Votto the starter at first base. Votto began the year in a quasi-platoon with Scott Hatteberg, but has since claimed the full-time job while hitting .311 with an .869 OPS. Meanwhile, Hatteberg has started just one of the past 17 games, hitting .161 in 39 plate appearances overall.

Given how productive he was as the Reds' starting first baseman over the past two seasons Hatteberg has handled his demotion to the bench with class, but said Sunday that he doesn't feel comfortable as a pinch-hitter and would welcome a trade. New general manager Walt Jocketty told reporters that he hasn't talked to any teams about Hatteberg, but with a .294/.388/.445 line since coming to Cincinnati in 2006 there are certainly some teams that could better use him.

* Rafael Soriano suffered another setback over the weekend when he experienced soreness in his tender right elbow while throwing a bullpen session Sunday. He's no longer expected to return from the disabled list when eligible Tuesday and manager Bobby Cox indicated that Soriaino will be asked to complete at least two pain-free bullpen sessions before being cleared to rejoin the Braves' bullpen, which likely gives Manny Acosta at least another week at closer.

* Barry Zito's struggles were discussed in this space Monday morning, and hours later the Giants announced that he'll take his 0-6 record and 7.53 ERA to the bullpen. Getting some low-leverage work will allow Zito to tinker with his mechanics in an effort to find his missing velocity, but the odds are heavily against a dramatic comeback. Zito is all but guaranteed to rejoin the rotation at some point thanks to still being owed over $100 million, but he's posted his last sub-4.00 ERA.

* John Smoltz complained of shoulder soreness following Sunday's loss to the Mets and will be examined by team doctors Tuesday in Atlanta. Smoltz will almost surely miss his next scheduled start and could be headed for a stint on the disabled list (or worse). If he lands on the DL then the Braves will be able to recall Chuck James from Triple-A, but if Smoltz remains on the active roster while missing his next turn Jo-Jo Reyes is the leading candidate to fill his rotation spot. atlantabraves.com

AL Quick Hits: Alex Rodriguez exited Monday's game after aggravating his quadriceps injury and is expected to be sidelined for several days, giving Morgan Ensberg some playing time ? Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is eligible to come off the shelf Tuesday, but the Los Angeles Times reports that he "probably won't be activated until later in the week" after experiencing soreness while running Sunday ? Javier Vazquez was in line for a victory Monday against the Orioles, allowing one run over eight innings before closer Bobby Jenks served up a game-tying homer in the ninth inning ? After going 3-for-13 during a brief minor-league rehab assignment, Mike Lowell (thumb) is expected to return from the disabled list Tuesday ? Carlos Quentin went 3-for-4 with a homer before Monday's game was suspended by rain, giving him a sparkling .448 on-base percentage ? Mike Mussina was criticized publicly by Hank Steinbrenner following a rough April 17 start, but has turned in back-to-back strong outings after holding the Indians to a pair of runs over five innings Monday ? Frank Thomas somehow tripled Monday for the first time since 2002.

NL Quick Hits: Adding to the Joba Chamberlain comparisons, general manager Josh Byrnes said Sunday that Max Scherzer will pitch out of the bullpen initially despite still being viewed as a long-term starter ? Edwin Encarnacion went 2-for-4 with two doubles Monday, making him 26-for-70 (.371) with five homers and seven doubles since starting the year in a 2-for-24 slump ? Alfonso Soriano (calf) had what's described as a "vigorous" workout Monday and afterward guaranteed that he'll come off the disabled list when eligible Thursday ? General manager Pat Gillick said Sunday that he'd like Jimmy Rollins (ankle) go play 3-4 minor-league rehab games before coming off the shelf, which he's eligible to do on May 5 ? Mike Jacobs (finger) won't be in the lineup Tuesday, but could be available off the bench as a pinch-hitter ? Cesar Izturis returned to the lineup Monday after missing six straight starts with a bruised elbow that came courtesy of an Eric Gagne fastball ? Brett Myers blamed decreased velocity for his early struggles?which include allowing 10 homers in six starts?saying Sunday: "I'm lost throwing 88 miles per hour." newyorkmets.com

 

[Ego74]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Glavine activated; Smoltz to the DL

<table class="s_playerNewsTable" id="Table1" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="487"><tbody><tr><td class="s_playerNewsTitle" style="background: rgb(15, 67, 124) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="430"><table class="s_playerNewsTitle" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td align="left" width="33">
</td> <td align="left"> Tom Glavine-S- Braves</td> <td style="" align="right">Apr. 29 - 4:34 pm et</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td><td style="background: rgb(15, 67, 124) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="14"> </td> <td width="6"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td class="s_playerNewsLeftBorder"> </td> <td class="s_playerNewsText">
Braves activated LHP Tom Glavine from the disabled list.
He takes John Smoltz's spot on the roster and will start Tuesday night against the Nationals. The stint on the DL was the first of Glavine's career.
</td> <td class="s_playerNewsRightBorder"> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="10"> </td> <td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) url(../images/bottom_border_player.gif) repeat-x scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> </td> <td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="14"> </td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="s_playerNewsTable" id="Table1" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="487"><tbody><tr> <td width="11"> </td> <td style="background: rgb(15, 67, 124) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="10"> </td> <td class="s_playerNewsTitle" style="background: rgb(15, 67, 124) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="430"> <table class="s_playerNewsTitle" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="left" width="33"> </td> <td align="left"> John Smoltz-S- Braves</td> <td style="" align="right">Apr. 29 - 4:32 pm et</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td><td style="background: rgb(15, 67, 124) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="14"> </td> <td width="6"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td class="s_playerNewsLeftBorder"> </td> <td class="s_playerNewsText">
Braves placed RHP John Smoltz on the disabled list with a severely inflamed biceps tendon and inflamed rotator cuff.
Smoltz received the scary sounding diagnoses Tuesday after being examined by Dr. James Andrews, but the Braves are hopeful that he can avoid surgery and return after a few weeks of rest. Smoltz has had shoulder and neck problems since spring training and complained of soreness following his start Sunday against the Mets.
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Yankees Hurting

Jorge Posada was placed on the disabled list Monday and Alex Rodriguez is reportedly expected to join him there after aggravating his quadriceps injury. If Rodriguez is indeed lost for at least two weeks, the Yankees will likely go with Morgan Ensberg as his primary replacement while also giving shortstop prospect Alberto Gonzalez some action at the hot corner. Ensberg has struggled dating back to last season, but has 20-homer pop and is worth grabbing in AL-only leagues.

Meanwhile, news on Posada's shoulder injury is positive, or at least better than initially expected. Posada seemed resigned to a lengthy stay on the DL and possibly even expected to go under the knife when speaking about his status Monday, but an examination Tuesday reportedly revealed no major damage. For now at least the injury is not expected to be of the season-ending variety, although the Yankees have sent MRIs to several other doctors for further opinions.

There's no timetable yet for Posada's return and the injury may ultimately prove to be serious, but if nothing else there's a lot more reason for optimism now than there was 48 hours ago. Backup Jose Molina will likely see most of the action behind the plate with Posada sidelined, although the Yankees may look to add catching depth via trade or possibly even free agency if someone like Damian Miller feels like dusting off his cleats.

While the Yankees lose their two best players from last season within the span of 48 hours, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Max Scherzer made his major-league debut Tuesday night, living up the hype and then some by absolutely overpowering the Astros. Scherzer came on in relief after starter Edgar Gonzalez was knocked around for six runs early and proceeded to retire all 13 batters he faced, including seven on strikeouts. His fastball was consistently clocked at 94-96 miles per hour and he pumped it up to 97-98 MPH on several throws.

Spotty control was the one weakness that Scherzer showed while dominating in the minors last year, but he threw 35 of 47 pitches for strikes Tuesday and walked just three batters in 23 innings at Triple-A prior to being called up. If he can consistently throw strikes Scherzer has the raw stuff to be one of the elite pitchers in baseball, although it remains to be seen whether he'll be working from the rotation or bullpen long term. Whatever the case, he's a must-grab in almost all leagues.

* Johnny Cueto had a Scherzer-like debut on April 3?coincidentally against the Diamondbacks?tossing eight one-hit innings while racking up 10 strikeouts. He followed that up with a strong second start, but then struggled a bit over his next three outings before turning in the first official clunker of his career Tuesday night. Cueto was chased out of the game in the second inning, as the Cardinals got to him for seven runs to push his ERA from 4.05 to 5.40.

As a fly-ball pitcher calling an extreme hitter's ballpark home Cueto is susceptible to some rough outings, but interestingly Tuesday's start was his first without serving up a homer. A 22-year-old rookie going through some growing pains once the league gets familiar with him is certainly nothing new and Cueto has pitched better than his now-ugly ERA indicates, posting a 33-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 1.09 WHIP over 35 innings. Be patient and, if you can, buy low.

* Atlanta's rotation received both good news and bad news Tuesday, welcoming one future Hall of Famer back from the disabled list and putting another one on the shelf. Tom Glavine returned from his first career stint on the DL to toss six innings of two-run ball against the Nationals, but the Braves sent John Smoltz to the DL what they're calling a severely inflamed biceps tendon and inflamed rotator cuff. atlantabraves.com

That diagnoses came following an examination by Dr. James Andrews and certainly sounds bad, but for now at least the Braves are hopeful that Smoltz can avoid surgery while coming back after a few weeks of rest. "We're going to let him rest for a little bit and see what happens," manager Bobby Cox said. Interestingly, general manager Frank Wren was asked about potentially moving Smoltz back to closer once he returns and replied that it was "too premature" to think about that.

* Pitching for just the second time in eight days, Chad Cordero was asked to close out a four-run lead Tuesday and couldn't get the job done. He allowed two singles while recording one out, and was pulled in favor of Jon Rauch. Rauch wriggled out of the jam to notch his fifth save, but the Nationals announced afterward that Cordero will be placed back on the disabled list with more shoulder problems. He's clearly a long way from closing again and Rauch's value is secure.

AL Quick Hits: Scott Kazmir (elbow) threw five innings of one-run ball in his final minor-league rehab start Monday at Triple-A and is slated to rejoin the Rays' rotation Sunday against the Red Sox ? Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien were absent from the lineup Tuesday night at Triple-A, leading to speculation that they're headed to Seattle ? Rich Harden (back) threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Monday and is scheduled to make the first of two rehab starts Thursday at Triple-A ? Roy Halladay took his third straight complete-game loss Tuesday, falling 1-0 to the Red Sox when he allowed a walk-off single on his 112th pitch ? Joe Borowski (triceps) played catch from 75 feet Monday, but is still expected to miss at least two more weeks ? Travis Buck (shin splints) ran and shagged fly balls Monday, and could begin a rehab assignment this week ? Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) threw from 60 feet Monday, but manager Mike Scioscia called it "baby steps" and added that "there's a long way to go" ? David Price (elbow) threw batting practice Tuesday and is expected to start the first of 3-4 extended spring training games Friday.

NL Quick Hits: Alfonso Soriano (calf) is set to return from the disabled list when eligible Thursday and manager Lou Piniella said Tuesday that he'll resume leading off ? With an MRI showing no major damage to the injured ankle that delayed his rehab from hernia surgery, Moises Alou is now expected to make his season debut Friday ? Former general manager Wayne Krivsky said Tuesday that the Reds haven't had contract talks with impending free agent Adam Dunn ? Jose Reyes entered Tuesday with a putrid .272 on-base percentage, but reached safely in all six plate appearances against the Pirates ? Shane Victorino (calf) came off the shelf Tuesday, but may have to battle Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins for playing time ? After posting a 6.39 ERA and walking 17 batters over 25.1 innings, Franklin Morales is now headed to Triple-A ? Ryan Freel has started just eight games all year and said Monday that he's unhappy about his lack of playing time ? Jonathan Broxton is reportedly scheduled to undergo an MRI after recently complaining of shoulder soreness

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Big Hurt's Big Replacement

One can never say that J.P. Riccardi and the Blue Jays are a boring organization. Whether it be manager John Gibbons and pitcher Ted Lilly getting physical, the entire management team lying about B.J. Ryan's injury, or this latest fiasco, the club seems good for at least one unique story per year. The decision to release Frank Thomas was certainly a controversial one, but don't for a minute believe the drivel about it being a performance-based baseball decision. There's absolutely no way any organization would decide a future Hall of Famer who posted an 857 OPS last season was done as a starter after less than three weeks of play. Adam Lind is a nice alternative and I think he'll bounce back from a down 2007 campaign, but there was plenty of room for Lind on the team even with Big Hurt around.

The move was designed simply to avoid paying Frank Thomas a $10 million vesting option for next season. Riccardi had to dress up the decision in part to look good in the media, but also to avoid a complaint from the MLBPA. It's illegal for any team to release a player strictly in order to avoid them reaching an incentive, but by making the transaction now and trying to spin it with reports that Thomas is washed up adds enough cloudiness to likely avoid a penalty. It's a well orchestrated move to avoid penalty, but it's still very farm from a performance-based decision.

I've seen owners following Riccardi's lead in fantasy leagues, either dropping Thomas or shopping him for cents on the dollar. Afterall, if his own general manager doesn't think he can produce, why should we? However, the nuances behind the scenes shed a much different light, and the Blue Jays' history of lying has to be taken into account. In addition to the great opportunity for a quality prospect in Adam Lind, owners can also look for profit by buying low on Thomas. In that sense, I guess Riccardi is okay.

Speaking of Lind, I won the outfielder for $21 of my $100 FAAB in a very deep AL-only league that already has many top prospects claimed. He also went for $19 in another deep AL-only league, so that's right about his value. I recommend bidding right up to that level, as Lind's .365 batting average and three homers in 63 Triple-A at-bats are the start of him rebounding from a disappointing all-around 2007 campaign. If he can keep the strikeouts in line, he has the ability to hit .300 and smack 20+ homers per season right away. Since he's up so early in the season and has little competition for a full-time gig, he's worth a big investment.

[SIZE=+1]Major League Callups[/SIZE]

Aaron Laffey ? LHP Indians ? One of my favorite underrated prospects, Laffey made a solid impression in the majors by posting a 4.56 ERA in 49 1/3 innings last season. He also gave up just two homers, got more than three times as many outs on the ground compared to the air, and posted a 25/12 K/BB ratio. All of those ratios, except the strikeout rate, are in line with his minor league performance from last season. The left-hander posted a 2.88 ERA, 99/30 K/BB, 2.81 GB/FB, and allowed just seven homers in 131 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2007, so most of Laffey's positives were translating to the majors.

Laffey hadn't received much press prior to then because of his low strikeout rate. However, by getting his strikeout rate up over 6 per nine innings last season he allowed for a more optimistic approach. And since he was still just 22 years old, there's plenty of reason to take the optimistic approach. With his high-80s sinker and an improved slider, he has enough of a repertoire to succeed while inducing grounders and limiting home runs. That should make him nothing worse than an innings eater, and if his changeup continues to develop he could top out as a No. 3 starter.

Laffey had a 2.77 ERA in five starts for Triple-A before being promoted, then allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his season debut in the majors. He'll continue to fill in for Jake Westbrook and should get at least three more starts. He's not for the risk averse, but I like his chances of providing solid innings. If you're rotation is hurting, I like taking a chance on Laffey in AL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only formats.

Brent Lillibridge ? SS Braves ? A fourth round pick out of Washington in the 2005 draft, Lillibridge started to gain a following in prospect circles after a breakout 2006 campaign. He hit .299/.414/.522 in 274 at-bats for Single-A Hickory, then batted .308/.422/.418 in 201at-bats in High-A. Lillibridge also played good defense, stole 52 bases, and displayed excellent plate discipline with a 104/87 K/BB mark. He was too old for Single-A at age 22, but High-A was more age appropriate and he was still rather intriguing there.

However, Lillibridge's stock fell after he combined for a .282/.341/.417 line between Double-A and Triple-A last season. The power that he showed in Single-A was all but gone, and more advanced pitchers realized there was little harm in throwing strikes to the 5'11", 190-pound shortstop. That meant he walked just 40 times in 2007, down a whopping 47 from the previous season.

Called up with the Braves banged up in the infield, Lillibridge will receive some playing time in the short-term. However, it likely won't be enough to amass value in NL-only leagues and he'll be back in the minors fairly soon. Long-term, Lillibridge could be a quality prospect if he shows his power or walk rate in 2007 were a fluke. He wasn't off to a good start with a 540 OPS in Triple-A, and he could end up a quality utility player if his bat doesn't rebound. His 40-steal potential will make him someone to watch closely in fantasy leagues, so he's worth taking a flier on.

Recommendation: Stash away in NL-only keeper leagues; monitor elsewhere.



Pat Misch ? LHP Giants ? A wild and ineffective starter in college, Misch immediately began showing improved control and fine results after signing in 2003. He looked primed for a late season promotion with the Giants in 2005 after posting a career 2.91 ERA and 227/62 K/BB in 306 innings up to that point, most of which were at Double-A. However, Misch was awful once reaching Triple-A in 2005, posting an ERA over 6.00 and seeing all of his ratios deteriorate. Misch rebounded while back in Double-A during the 2006 campaign and looked solid in Triple-A, but he finally earned the Giants' trust after posting a 2.29 ERA and 74/19 K/BB ratio in 67 innings, mostly as a reliever, for Fresno last season. He bounced between the rotation and the bullpen once joining the Giants later that year, posting a 4.24 ERA in 40 innings.

Misch is your typical finesse left-hander, throwing in the high-80s with an assortment of solid breaking pitches. He has good command, and though he doesn't induce a lot of ground balls, he does a surprisingly good job of limiting home runs. Misch is smart enough to beat undisciplined hitters in the majors, but he'll run into enough quality lineups to prevent him from posting quality ratios. He could be an innings eater in time, but there's little upside to his game and plenty of downside. While I think he's got a better chance to be a No. 4 than most, he's not worth the risk in NL-only leagues until he shows a little more. However, with Barry Zito in the bullpen and Kevin Correia hurt, Misch will get that chance.

Recommendation: Monitor in one-year NL-only leagues.

Garrett Olson ? LHP Orioles ? A highly thought of prospect entering the 2007 season, Olson looked strong for Triple-A Norfolk with a 3.16 ERA and 120/39 K/BB ratio in 128 innings of work. The Orioles decided to give him a shot late in the year, but Olson didn't trust his stuff and nibbled on the corners too often. The result was 28 walks and a 7.79 ERA in 32 1/3 innings of work. Since his fastball sits around 90 MPH and none of his secondary offerings profile as particularly strong offerings, he's going to have to live on the margins where the difference between success and failure is quite small. So while his debut wasn't strong, it's not something to be overly concerned with in the long-term.

A supplemental first round pick in 2005, Olson has long showed good command and the ability to attack hitters despite less than stellar stuff. Given more time to adjust in the majors, I think he'll have a long career as a No. 4 starter. Olson was off to a nice start with a 1.85 ERA and 25/11 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings in Triple-A, and he gave up just two runs despite walking five in 6 2/3 innings against the Rays in his season debut. The solid performance will keep him in the rotation for now. I wouldn't trust him in an AL-only league, but I could be convinced otherwise if he gets off to a nice start.

Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only formats.

Max Scherzer ? RHP Diamondbacks ? There's hot starts, and then there's Max Scherzer hot starts. Scherzer made all of four Triple-A starts before being promoted to the majors, and it's easy to see why when you look at a 1.17 ERA and 38/3 K/BB ratio in 23 innings of work. His dominance continued in a long relief appearance in his major league debut on Tuesday, as Scherzer retired all 13 batters he faced while striking out seven of them. Of all National League players who started the season in the minors, Scherzer is the early front-runner to provide the biggest fantasy impact in 2008.

While Scherzer's fast start is rather encouraging, it's important to understand the track record he brings to the table. Drafted with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Scherzer induced mixed opinions. Everyone liked his arm, but some clubs had concerns about his command and thought he might profile best in a relief role. Scherzer held out until right before the signing deadline the next spring, then dominated High-A hitters for three starts after signing. A move up to Double-A Mobile went reasonably well, but Scherzer's 40 walks in 73 2/3 innings renewed concerns about his command. Scherzer then pitched in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever, striking out 18 in 12 2/3 innings while hitting 98 MPH on the radar gun.

Despite a season of signs pointing to Scherzer as a reliever, the Diamondbacks wanted to give him another season to prove himself as a starter. The results have obviously been exceptional, but the way that Scherzer has gotten there adds even more hope. The right-hander still sits in the mid-90s with his fastball while starting, but his electric slider looks as good as it ever has and his changeup has improved as well. Throw in his more consistent control, and Scherzer looks like one of the very best pitching prospects out there.

The Diamondbacks realized it was folly to keep such a talented pitcher in the minors, regardless of role, and he's up in the bullpen for now. However, Arizona could quickly move him into the rotation by displacing Edgar Gonzalez. It could happen as soon as Gonzalez's next start. The impending return of Doug Davis would then complicate things, but the club shouldn't hesitate in sticking with Scherzer if he's going well. The possibility of a Randy Johnson further increases the chances that Scherzer can remain in the rotation. Since Scherzer has the stuff to dominate right away, he needs to be pursued aggressively in all formats. Perhaps his command won't hold up so well, but he can still be well above average even if his walk rate is mediocre and that makes him a particularly strong bet in keeper leagues.

Recommendation: Pursue aggressively in all NL-only leagues and keeper mixed leagues; stash away in one-year mixed leagues.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL] ? INF Angels ? We fantasy players are generally an impatient bunch, reacting to perceived trends and news like traders on Wall Street. I usually argue that we're not patient enough with minor leaguers and youngsters in the majors, but Wood is one of the cases where I'd take the opposite approach. However, that hasn't been the case with Wood, as most fantasy players still value him quite highly. I suspect that's mostly to do with owners remembering his incredible 43 homers and 51 doubles for High-A Rancho Cucamonga back in 2005, but we've learned plenty about Wood as a player since then.

The knock on Wood (no pun intended...really) was that his 128 strikeouts in 130 games indicated he wouldn't be able to keep up with advanced pitching, and even if his power remained mostly constant his batting average would tumble down from its .321 mark. And indeed that's been the case. Wood has struck out 269 times in 890 at-bats between 2006 and 2007, and his batting average has predictably dropped to .274 during that span. His isolated power has also dropped from .351 to .252. Simply put, better pitchers began to eat Wood's poor tendencies alive, and he showed little ability to adjust over time. The ability to adjust at the plate is one of the most essential components of being a big league hitter, and Wood's lack of progress there is a major indictment.

It's been more of the same in 2008 for Wood, who was hitting .273 with six doubles and eight homers to go with 29 strikeouts in 88 at-bats. His power is looking as good as ever, but Wood's always been streaky and until he cuts down on his strikeouts I won't buy into his ability to maintain an elite power performance. Back at shortstop after spending most of 2007 at third base, Wood can still be an average regular if he hits .250 with 25 homers and solid defense. I think his defense is good enough to stick at short, but third base may yet be his destination.

Wood just turned 23 years old and is repeating Triple-A, so there's reason for optimism there. However, we'll need to see progress in selectivity from Wood before we can get too excited. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that won't happen and I've always been lower on Wood than most, so I'm not giving a mandate to grab him now. Since he won't get much playing time even with Howie Kendrick out, he's not a short-term option.

Recommendation: Stash away in keeper leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Bad April, Worse May?

With veterans Brad Wilkerson and Jose Vidro off to horrible starts, the Mariners turned to a pair of their best prospects Wednesday, calling up Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien from Triple-A. Wilkerson was designated for assignment to make room for Balentien, who will likely take over as the semi-everyday right fielder and jumped right into the lineup Wednesday by going 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs against Cliff Lee and the Indians.

Vidro remains on the roster and started at designated hitter against the left-handed Lee, but will almost surely lose significant playing time to Clement against right-handers. Clement is among the game's elite catching prospects, but the Mariners are reportedly less than thrilled with his defense behind the plate and Kenji Johjima signing a three-year contract extension earlier this week essentially guarantees that he'll be primarily a DH.

While Balentien figures to garner more playing time initially, Clement is actually the much better fantasy bet. Selected third overall in the 2005 draft, he's batted .281/.374/.469 in 215 games at Triple-A, including a ridiculous .397/.535/.692 with five homers and 20 RBIs prior to being called up. Clement saw an inning behind the plate Wednesday and if he gets enough action there to become eligible at catcher he has top-10 potential at the position.

Balentien is a less refined hitter than Clement, but has huge power potential after blasting 30 homers in 141 career games at Triple-A. He's improved his plate discipline while cutting back on his strikeouts in recent years to become a far better prospect, but still seems likely to post a sub par batting average. Balentien is worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, while Clement is a must-grab in AL-only leagues and worth considering in mixed leagues for his possible catching value.

While the Mariners try to infuse some much-needed youth into their veteran-laden lineup, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* April went horribly for Phil Hughes, as he turned in a rough outing Tuesday against the Tigers to finish the month 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA and then revealed afterward that he's been experiencing blurred vision during night games because of glaring lights. May then got off to an equally bad start for Hughes on Wednesday when the Yankees placed him on the disabled list with a strained oblique that could easily sideline him for the entire month.

Blurred vision doesn't do a whole lot to explain Hughes' putrid April and the oblique strain can't be held responsible for the bulk of his bad starts given that he first felt soreness last week. With that said, something has clearly not been right with Hughes thus far and perhaps a month off might be good for him. His fastball has been clocked around 90-92 miles per hour, which is a far cry from his reported velocity in the minors, and he's dealt with an awful lot of health issues already.

* One day after being placed on the disabled list with an inflamed biceps tendon and rotator cuff, John Smoltz said Wednesday that he plans to return as a reliever. Smoltz is expected to take at least a week off from throwing and then head out on a minor-league rehab assignment, with the hope being that he can return within the month. Given that Smoltz will almost surely close again if he's indeed back in the bullpen, Rafael Soriano's future value is suddenly in serious question. atlantabraves.com

* Max Scherzer impressed the hell out of me during his big-league debut Tuesday and apparently the Diamondbacks were equally awed by his 4.1 no-hit innings of relief, because they announced Wednesday that he'll replace Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation. Scherzer will start Monday against the Phillies, which is a pretty tough first assignment, but he's absolutely worth sticking in NL-only lineups and is certainly capable of emerging with mixed-league value soon enough. newyorkmets.com

AL Quick Hits: Daisuke Matsuzaka missed out on his fifth win Wednesday when the bullpen blew a 1-0 lead, but he tossed seven shutout innings to drop his ERA to 2.52 ? As expected, Alex Rodriguez (quadriceps) was placed on the disabled list Wednesday and Alberto Gonzalez started in his place ? Francisco Liriano struggled Wednesday at Triple-A, allowing four runs on five hits and five walks over 4.1 innings ? Josh Hamilton smacked his first grand slam Wednesday, giving him a .303-25-79 line through 118 career games ? Fighting for his spot in the rotation with Scott Kazmir (elbow) due back this weekend, Andy Sonnanstine tossed eight innings of one-run ball Wednesday versus the Orioles ? Placido Polanco entered Wednesday's game with zero homers since September 17, but went deep twice against the Yankees ? Carlos Gomez went 3-for-4 with his AL-leading 11th steal Wednesday, making him 7-for-15 with a homer, a double, and two steals since a one-game benching last week ? David Eckstein went 0-for-4 Wednesday and has failed to score or drive in a run for eight straight games.

NL Quick Hits: As expected, Chad Cordero (shoulder) was placed on the disabled list Wednesday and is slated to miss 4-6 weeks, leaving Jon Rauch with ninth-inning duties through at least the All-Star break ? Tom Gorzelanny tossed five shutout innings Wednesday against the Mets, but walked five batters and exited early with back spasms ? Micah Owings blasted a two-run homer as a pinch-hitter Wednesday and is now hitting .354 with five homers and 18 RBIs in 83 career plate appearances ? Matt Kemp had a monster game Wednesday, going 3-for-5 with two runs, three RBIs, and two steals ? Ryan Freel got a rare start Wednesday after complaining about his playing time and went 3-for-5 to make him 15-for-36 (.417) in nine starts ? Kelly Johnson was scratched from the lineup Wednesday with back soreness, giving Ruben Gotay his long-awaited first start ? Asked Wednesday about Dmitri Young's (back) return timetable, general manager Jim Bowden said: "He's not making progress, it's unfortunate" ? Matt Morris has decided to retire after being released by the Pirates.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Position switches do matter
For many years, the designation "utility player" was a derogatory one in Major League Baseball. It meant a player wasn't good enough to handle any one position. But fantasy owners have long recognized versatility is an extremely desirable quality.

Already this season, Brandon Inge of the Detroit Tigers has gone from a bench player to a semi-regular infielder/outfielder. More recently, he has seen time at a third position ? playing four games at catcher ? which could help make him one of the season's biggest bargains.

Eligibility rules vary from league to league, but the most common is that a player must have played 20 games at a position the previous season or 10 games during the current season to qualify.

In shallow leagues, defensive positions aren't that big of a deal. There are plenty of good players to go around, so all that matters is the stats they generate. But in deeper leagues where rosters must be carefully manipulated, eligibility changes can carry major repercussions.

That's why last week's announcement that the Tigers were shuffling the deck in the infield was so interesting. Even during spring training, offseason acquisition Miguel Cabrera had been getting regular time at first base. But when manager Jim Leyland announced the move was going to be permanent and former first baseman/shortstop Carlos Guillen would be moving to third base, it was big news.

Guillen, who played 132 games at shortstop in 2007, was already one of the American League's best at that position. Moving to first base this season was expected to lessen his chances for injury and allow him to concentrate more on his hitting. It was apparently working ? with Guillen off to one of the best starts of his career. Even though most fantasy teams will continue to slot Guillen at short, being able to use him at either corner spot will be a bonus.

The only complaint fantasy owners could have about the Tigers' moves is that they were made too soon. At week's end, Cabrera had played 14 games at third base and Guillen 18 games at first base ? just short of the magical 20-game threshold to guarantee eligibility at those positions next season.

Sometimes it's out of necessity, sometimes it's out of desperation, but occasionally players are forced out of their comfort zone into new (or old) positions. In fact, the past couple of weeks have been full of interesting moves.

* Because of an injury and extra innings, the St. Louis Cardinals were forced to play catcher Jason LaRue at first base and move Albert Pujols to second base for the first time in his career.

* An injury to Nomar Garciaparra forced the Los Angeles Dodgers to shift catcher Russell Martin to third (his original position in the minors) to finish an extra-inning game.

* The acquisition of designated hitter Frank Thomas spurred the Oakland Athletics to give DH Mike Sweeney his first start of the season at first base.

Of course, these were all emergency-type moves and aren't likely to send major shock waves through the fantasy community. However, some leagues do require only one appearance at a position to qualify.

A dynasty league I'm in requires teams to start a player at each individual position ? with left field, center and right all counting separately. The league also determines position eligibility solely from the previous two weeks' worth of games.

That means Guillen is no longer available as a shortstop and Cabrera will have to play third base again to continue to be used there. On the other hand, Pujols could get a two-week stint as a second baseman. However, with 16 active hitters and a 40-man roster, the loophole doesn't usually come into play because most teams have backups at every position.

Another of my leagues has what seems like an annual debate over its position rules. Traditionally, designated hitter types have been eligible at the position they would play if they were forced to take the field. For instance, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Frank Thomas are classified as first basemen, Gary Sheffield and Juan Rivera are outfielders and Seattle Mariners prospect Jeff Clement is a catcher ? even though none of them appeared in the 20 games at those positions last season that other players are required to have.

The league so far has resisted change on the grounds that it could penalize owners who built their teams with the old rule in mind. True, the AL does have a significant number of DH-only types this season. But Billy Butler has already played five games at first base, and there's always interleague play around the corner to get those DHs time in the field. Where's the harm in adding a little more strategy to the game and forcing owners to make tough decisions?

As Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Inge and others have demonstrated already this season, changing positions isn't that difficult ? especially when it makes a team (or a fantasy league) better.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Value in 'Plan B' relievers
By Brandon Kruse and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

The pursuit of saves can be frustrating. Bullpens are volatile, and roles can change quickly.

In an analysis of expert fantasy leagues over the past five years, more than 40% of pitchers drafted for saves were not saving games by the end of the season. That's why the draft values of "Plan B" relievers have skyrocketed in recent years.

Plan B relievers are those in line for saves when the front-liners fail. Identifying these pitchers earlier than your competition can give you a huge advantage.

Future closing potential comes down to two elements: talent and opportunity. And because Plan B relievers, by their very definition, do not yet have the opportunity to close, we must focus on talent.

Using only ERA to identify talent can be misleading, as relievers' ERAs can be skewed by one or two bad outings, especially this early in the season. Analyzing the underlying skills that tend to drive ERAs can give you a better assessment of a pitcher's potential. Three key pitching skills we use to do that are walks per nine innings (BB/9), strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB).

Let's take a look at some closers who are struggling and identify some Plan B options:

* Baltimore: George Sherrill is new to the job, and he hadn't exactly been dominant: 5.06 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 1.5 K/BB.

Historically, his skills have been better than this, but at the same time, his K/BB ratio was no better than it was in 2006, his worst season for that category. And there's a bias against lefty closers (managers tend to reserve their few lefties in the pen for situational work), so he might not be given a long leash.

Jamie Walker has filled the closer's role before, but he's a lefty too, and his skills have been good but not great (5.63 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB) this season.

Matt Albers had put up some intriguing early numbers (1.65 ERA, 3.3 K/BB), but he was working in long relief and could be a long way from consideration. The real Plan B option in this pen could be a guy who hadn't logged an inning yet: Jim Hoey, who was on the disabled list with a sore shoulder, but had a 13.7 K/9 and 4.1 K/BB in Class AAA last season. Keep him on your radar.

* Houston: While a 7.50 ERA and three blown saves is not what you want from your closer, Jose Valverde had not been that bad. His skills (4.5 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 2.5 K/BB) weren't that far from his historical levels, but his ERA had been hurt by a touch of "gopheritis." That said, he's lost his job before.

The Astros might turn to 40-year-old Doug Brocail, who already had one save this year. He had been pitching superbly (8.3 K/9, 6.0 K/BB), beyond anything he's done in the past five years. He's a tough call. If he maintains this, he's worth owning. More likely, he'll come down to earth and stick you with a mid-four ERA at best.

Similarly, Geoff Geary had been very good (9.0 K/9, 3.3 K/BB), but was striking out batters at a rate well above what he's done in the past. We need more data before we can buy in.

* Milwaukee: Eric Gagne had a 6.17 ERA and four blown saves. He was allowing too many walks and home runs, but his strikeout rate (11.6 K/9) was back to his old elite level, and his 3.0 K/BB ratio was strong. However, with these early struggles coming after his rough stint in Boston last year, it certainly feels like the sharks are circling.

Unfortunately, the rest of the Brewers' bullpen is stocked with pitchers who have closing experience but poor skills: Seth McClung (1.6 K/BB), Guillermo Mota (7.5 BB/9, 1.4 K/BB), David Riske (6.2 BB/9, 0.9 K/BB) and Derrick Turnbow (14.3 BB/9, 0.4 K/BB). The cream of this ugly crop might be Salomon Torres, who had a 2.6 K/BB ratio last year, and was at 1.9 K/BB this season. Chasing saves in this bullpen will probably give you ulcers.

* Oakland: Huston Street has overcome a rough start, in which he gave up five runs in his first three appearances, but overall, his skills (8.0 K/9, 2.8 K/BB) aren't quite at the dominant level we're used to seeing. And with the A's in rebuilding mode (though you wouldn't know it from their early record), there's always the possibility that he could be traded this season.

Alan Embree (9.8 K/9, 6.0 K/BB) and Keith Foulke (7.7 K/9, 6.0 K/BB) have experience and good skills, making either a solid Plan B choice. But the real future of this 'pen might be Santiago Casilla, who was off to a spectacular start: 0.00 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 9.0 K/BB. Even without saves, those are numbers that could help any fantasy pitching staff. Focus on the talent, hope for the opportunity.

* San Diego: Trevor Hoffman was off to the worst start of his career, with a 7.27 ERA and two early blown saves. His 2.0 K/BB ratio was only at the minimum level of acceptability, and while his 8.3 K/9 was strong, historically his strikeout rate has been in decline for five years. His legendary status will make it tough for him to lose his job, but it's not impossible.

Heath Bell and Cla Meredith have both owned closer-worthy skills in recent years, though their current numbers (5.7 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB for Bell; 3.8 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB for Meredith) were worse than last year's. It could be a small-sample-size issue, but it's worth monitoring. Ignore the low early ERAs of Kevin Cameron (7.0 BB/9, 0.7 K/BB) and Wil Ledezma (4.6 BB/9, 1.6 K/BB); their skills are not worth owning.

* St. Louis: Jason Isringhausen had a 6.55 ERA and has struggled with walks and mediocre K/BB ratios for the past three seasons. Neither of those had been a problem (2.5 BB/9, 3.0 K/BB), but if the struggles were to resurface, they could make it hard for him to dig out of this early hole.

Veteran Russ Springer might be first in line; he's coming off a 2.18 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 K/BB last year ? but he's also battling nerve problems in his elbow.

Rookie Kyle McClellan has come out of nowhere with a 1.84 ERA, backed up by a 7.4 K/9 rate and 6.0 K/BB ratio. And while Anthony Reyes had a 5.06 ERA, his early skills (0.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9) look good.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Sweet, it's Salty
To succeed in baseball, one often has to make bold moves. The Giants were looking to bolster their pitching staff, so they gave Barry Zito a $126 million contract. Problem solved. The Florida Marlins had poor attendance, so they hired a squad of fat guys to dance at their games. They're only averaging 1300 fewer attendees than the 29th-place Pirates. What did Roger Clemens do when he fell for a 15-year-old country music starlet? He allegedly went out and got himself some human growth hormone in what I imagine was an ill-advised attempt to make her age quicker.

Fantasy baseball players need to bring the same tenacity to the table. Here are some options to help out your team:

[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

Jeff Clement - C/DH ? SEA ? Clement hit .375 in 16 major league at-bats to end last season, and he smacked two home runs in that same period. Starting this season in Triple-A, Clement was absolutely on fire, hitting .397 with five home runs and 20 RBI. Don't expect numbers that strong, but a .280 average with 15 home runs isn't out of the question as Clement should start against most righties. He likely only qualifies as a DH in most leagues right now, but he saw one inning behind the plate on Wednesday night. Once he gains eligibility at catcher, he should be worth using in mixed leagues. His immediate playing time makes him more attractive short-term than Saltalamacchia.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C ? TEX ? With Adam Melhuse breaking his hand and getting released, Jarrod Saltalamacchia figures to be back in the major leagues for good. While he's not the Rangers' primary catcher, he figures to see a few starts a week through a combination of work as Gerald Laird's backup, the designated hitter and at first base. Texas is already nine games under .500, and Saltalamacchia's role could increase if the team continues to stink. He should be owned in all leagues that start two catchers, and his upside makes him a solid investment in mixed leagues.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Nick Adenhart - SP ? LAA ? The Angels plan on calling up Nick Adenhart to make his major league debut on Thursday night against the A's. Originally pegged as a first-round pick, Adenhart fell all the way to the fourteenth round after blowing out his elbow before the draft. Since then, Adenhart has fully recovered and enjoyed success at almost every level of minor league ball. He doesn't strike as many hitters out as he did at the lower levels, but he's still dominating Triple-A with a 0.87 ERA to start the year.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues, worth a flier in mixed leagues

Armando Galarraga - SP ? DET ? Galarraga was covered here a couple weeks ago, and expectations were that he wouldn't continue his hot start. He's made two solid starts since, but he still shouldn't be counted on to put up numbers anything like what he's sporting now. Galarraga had an ERA over 4.00 in the minor leagues last season, and his numbers should eventually begin to trend in that direction. While the Tigers aren't rushing Dontrelle Willis back, Galarraga appears likely to be out of a job once he returns.
Recommendation: Play him while he's hot in mixed leagues

Emil Brown - OF ? OAK ? Through the first month of the season, Emil Brown already has over half the RBI Rotoworld originally projected for him. He's found consistent playing time in Oakland's crowded outfield, and seems to have settled into the fifth spot in the lineup. Brown's numbers have returned to their 2005/2006 levels, and his teammates are helping by getting on base in front of him. He is hitting an impressive .386 with runners on base, and while you shouldn't expect him to lead the league in RBI come the end of the season, Brown should make a solid addition for as long as he's seeing regular playing time.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Wladimir Balentien - OF ? SEA ? Balentien was called up with Jeff Clement and figures to take over in right field. Balentien has gradually improved his approach at the plate, striking out at a lesser rate as he climbed through the minor leagues. He's done so without sacrificing his power, either, as he's hit 25, 22 and 24 home runs in the last three seasons. Balentien is a streaky hitter, and he's never hit over .291 at any level in the minor leagues. Expect decent power numbers, but an average that could hurt your team.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues

Garrett Olson - SP ? BAL ? Olson made his first start of the season on Tuesday, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 innings. He tallied an impressive six strikeouts, but yielded five walks ? a problem he also had in spring training. Still, Olson has shown solid underlying skills in the minors, where he was sporting a 1.85 ERA and a 25/11 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings. If he sticks in the rotation with Adam Loewen out, he'll be worth monitoring in AL-only leagues.
Recommendation: Worth watching in AL-only leagues.

Jeff Mathis - C ? ANA ? Jeff Mathis is hitting .302 through his first 43 at-bats while Mike Napoli is struggling along with a .218 batting average (although he does have six home runs). The strong start for Mathis has gotten him roughly half the starts in Los Angeles. He's a streaky hitter, but he's worth using as a second catcher as long as he's producing like this.
Recommendation: Worth consideration as second catcher.

Franklin Gutierrez - OF ? CLE ? After a terribly slow start to the season, Gutierrez has gotten a hit in eight of his last nine games, raising his average to .276. He also has two home runs and three stolen bases on the young season, putting him right on pace for the 20 dingers and 13 stolen bases that Rotoworld originally projected for him. His average shouldn't end up hurting fantasy teams, and he makes a cheap source of power and speed in AL-only leagues.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

Brian Burres - SP - BAL ? Burres has a 2.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 25 1/3 innings this season, but don't expect that to continue. He's enjoying an unusually low BABIP and when that normalizes so should his stats. You need look no further than last year, when Burres had a 4.27 ERA before the All Star game, and a 7.92 ERA after it. His 13/10 K/BB ratio should also hint at his downside.
Recommendation: Stay away.
<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

Max Scherzer - SP ? ARI ? Scherzer, the latest hot prospect to be called up, struck out seven batters in just 4 1/3 innings in his first appearance for the Diamondbacks. He was named a starter the very next day, and will face the Phillies in that capacity on Monday. Scherzer pitched 23 innings in the minors and struck out an incredible 38 batters while walking just three, assuaging long-standing concerns about his control. While owners shouldn't expect him to duplicate the 1.17 ERA he had in Triple-A, he should be a worthy addition to fantasy squads while pitching for the D-Backs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues

Aaron Cook - SP ? COL ? Cook is sporting a nifty 4-1 record to go along with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, much of it a result of the sinkerballer's impressive 60% ground ball rate. That he keeps the ball on the ground makes him one of Coors Field's more worthy investments, but don't expect Cook to maintain the success: he's been the beneficiary of a low BABIP so far this season. His lack of strikeouts makes him more appealing in 4x4 leagues.
Recommendation: Back-end starter in mixed leagues.

Jayson Werth - OF ? PHI ? When Werth took over for Shane Victorino, it was originally assumed that he'd surrender the centerfield job when Victorino returned form the disabled list. Victorino returned on Tuesday, but Werth still got the start in center, thanks to his .289 average and five home runs. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel wants to keep Werth in center field until he cools down, but the fact remains that Werth is an injury-prone outfielder who hits lefties significantly better than he does righties. Don't count on him maintaining his success, throughout the season.
Recommendation: Should be owned in NL-only leagues for now.

Luis Castillo - 2B ? NYM ? Castillo is an overpaid, injury-prone second baseman who hits for solid average but doesn't have much pop in his bat. What he does do, however, is steal bases. Castillo has six stolen bags on the season, and while he won't help much in any other category, he's a cheap source of speed while healthy. His health won't last, but he's on pace to steal over thirty bags if it does.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

John Lannan - SP ? WAS ? Lannan is sporting a 2.64 ERA after five starts, but ignoring an unusual 11 strikeout performance, his K/BB ration is just 13/14. He's a finesse lefty with an unusual delivery that the league figures to catch up to. He'll start Saturday against the Pirates, making him an attractive short-term option, but don't expect this success to last through the year.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-Only leagues.

Jared Burton - RP ? CIN ? With David Weathers on the disabled list, Jared Burton has taken over setup duties in the Cincinnati bullpen. His 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP won't have much impact on fantasy teams, but he's struck out 18 batters in just 12 1/3 innings. If you're looking for holds or cheap strikeouts that won't send you over an innings limit, Burton could help.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-Only leagues.

Omar Quintanilla/Jonathan Herrera - IF ? COL ? With Troy Tulowitzki possibly destined for the disabled list, Omar Quintanilla and Jonathan Herrera will platoon at second base for the Rockies. Quintanilla is expected to start against most righties, and Colorado is tentatively scheduled to face righties in each of their next ten games. Quintanila was hitting .329/.451/.425 at Triple-A, but probably won't have much value in the majors.
Recommendation: Monitor in NL-Only leagues

Phil Dumatrait - SP ? PIT ? With the Pirates releasing Matt Morris, Phil Dumatrait will assume a position in Pittsburgh's rotation. Dumatrait is sporting a 3.92 ERA, but has a 1.62 WHIP out of the bullpen thus far, and has 13 strikeouts to 13 walks. Don't expect him to somehow flip the switch when he moves into the starting rotation ? he had a 15.00 ERA in six starts for the Reds last year.
Recommendation: Stay away.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Torn Tendon for Tulo

It's been a busy week and there's lots of good stuff to cover today, so let's skip the usual chit-chat and get right to the notes from around baseball ?

* Troy Tulowitzki has been out since a leg injury forced him from Tuesday's game and the Rocky Mountain News reports that he has a torn quadriceps tendon that could sideline him through the All-Star break. Tulowitzki was off to a horrible start offensively, batting just .167 with zero homers through 14 games, but was bound to turn things around at the plate and losing his glove at shortstop is an equally big blow to the Rockies.

Clint Barmes figures to see the bulk of the shortstop playing time in his place and has some upside. Barmes spent most of last season in the minors after falling out of favor in Colorado and his career numbers are very underwhelming, but he's hit .292/.324/.508 in 69 plate appearances so far this season and has enough pop to smack double-digit homers while stealing a handful of bases. Don't count on huge production, but he's a decent middle-infield option.

* Nick Adenhart got a surprise call-up Thursday and made his big-league debut against the A's, but struggled while working on short rest. He was chased out of the game in the third inning after allowing five runs and his final line would have looked worse had Dustin Moseley not stranded a pair of runners after coming on in relief. He's one of the better right-handed pitching prospects in baseball, but it's no shock that Adenhart struggled against Oakland.

He was 4-0 with a pretty 0.87 ERA at Triple-A, but 15 walks over 31 innings there suggested that the ever-patient A's presented an unfavorable first matchup. Sure enough, Adenhart walked five of the 14 batters he faced without recording a strikeout and threw just 24 of 57 pitches for strikes. It was far from a strong showing, but a 21-year-old struggling in his MLB debut while pitching on three days rest is far from a huge concern and he's still worth having in AL-only leagues for now.

* Manager John McLaren announced Wednesday that Kenji Johjima would get two games off "as a mental break" after posting a paltry .582 OPS in April and lived up to his promise by giving Jeff Clement his first big-league start behind the plate Thursday. Clement went 0-for-2 against Paul Byrd before Johjima replaced him in the late innings, but more importantly moved one step closer to gaining catcher eligibility in various fantasy leagues.

If Clement can get enough work behind the plate to become eligible at the position and then see significant playing time at designated hitter for the remainder of the year, he has a chance to end up as one of the AL's top fantasy catchers. Clement is no sure thing to stick in the majors if he struggles, of course, but is very capable of hitting .260-.275 with 12-15 homers over the final five months of the season if he does remain in Seattle.

* Phil Hughes' nightmarish season took another bad turn Thursday as the Yankees announced that he has a stress fracture in his rib cage rather than the strained oblique that was initially diagnosed. Hughes is now expected to miss 4-6 weeks and general manager Brian Cashman said that the team isn't counting on having him back until July. Darrell Rasner has been called up from Triple-A and will replace Hughes in the rotation, but carries at best marginal AL-only value.

* B.J. Upton exited Thursday's game after straining his left shoulder while swinging, which is a concern given his past shoulder problems. However, he's considered day-to-day for now and the Rays have said that they hope to have him back in the lineup Saturday. "It looks bad right away, it feels bad right away," Upton said. "But this is the best it's ever felt after [a similar injury], so we shouldn't think too much of it." Nathan Haynes will pick up at-bats until Upton returns.

AL Quick Hits: Miguel Cabrera homered and drove in three runs Thursday, making him 25-for-75 (.333) with five homers and 21 RBIs over the past 20 games ? Dropped to sixth in the batting order Thursday for the first time as a member of the Indians, Travis Hafner broke out of a 7-for-51 (.137) slump with a pair of doubles ? A.J. Burnett came into Thursday's game with a 6.07 ERA, but worked around five walks to shut out the Red Sox for 7.2 innings ? Eric Chavez (back) fielded ground balls Wednesday for the first time since being shut down during spring training and is still hoping to return by the end of the month ? An oblique strain has delayed his comeback, so Bartolo Colon agreed to push back the opt-out clause in his contract to June 1, potentially giving the Red Sox another month to call him up ? Emil Brown collected four hits Thursday and now has 26 RBIs in 28 games despite a modest .753 OPS ? Milton Bradley was scratched from the lineup Thursday with a sore hamstring ? Sidney Ponson somehow tossed eight innings of one-run ball Thursday against the Royals, but remains a horrible fantasy bet.

NL Quick Hits: Kerry Wood blew his third save of the season Thursday, coughing up three runs in the ninth inning against the Brewers ? As expected, Alfonso Soriano (calf) came off the disabled list Thursday and resumed leading off, going 0-for-4 ? According to manager John Russell, Tom Gorzelanny "should be fine" to make his next scheduled start despite having back spasms Wednesday ? Mark Mulder (shoulder) struggled Wednesday in a minor-league rehab start at Triple-A, allowing nine runs over 3.2 innings ? Kosuke Fukudome picked up right where he left off after batting .327 in April, beginning May by going 4-for-4 while throwing out two runners at the plate ? Noah Lowry will be shut down for at least 3-4 weeks after experiencing what the Giants called "pins and needles" in his surgically repaired forearm ? Mike Gonzalez said Thursday that he could return from Tommy John surgery without first going on a rehab assignment and perhaps within two weeks ? Derrick Turnbow is sporting a hideous 15.63 ERA and the Brewers may be on the verge of letting their former closer go despite a $3.2 million salary.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Kemp and Kotchman Take Off!
Kemp and Kotchman on fire, Sheff hurting and much more in this week's Week That Was.

Matt Kemp Matt Kemp continued swinging a hot bat Friday night with four RBI. Thus far, the Dodger OF has over 20 RBI despite, quite remarkably, playing only part time. It is just a matter of time before Joe Torre and the Dodger brass realize that they need to play Kemp everyday no matter how much they are paying Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Call the Kemp owner in your league and tell him how loyal Torre is to veterans and grab Kemp (of course, you should leave out that Torre had the foresight to install Melky Cabrera as the everyday CF last year despite the high salaries of Damon and Matsui).

Gary Sheffield: According to reports, the Tigers are planning to rest Gary Sheffield more often. Probably a good idea as Sheffield is hitting a meager 179. Ok, I know, enough blather . . . you want to know what the future holds for Sheff. Well, watching him play against the Yankees in his former home this week, I have to say that he looked off balance and out of sorts to me. Bottom line: from a fantasy perspective, Sheff is a player to avoid. First, he does not appear healthy. Second, his bat looks slow. Third, given the amount of his pre-swing movement, any slowdown in bat speed will make him even more unlikely to catch up with a good fastball. That he was having trouble catching up to 89mph fastballs this week says it all. No doubt Sheff was a great player. If there is someone in your league who is willing to pay for the past instead of the future, fleece the fool.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL]: Pirate 3B [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL] smacked two dingers Friday night in the victory over the Nationals. To say that Jose has been ice cold would be an understatement.
Even with the big night, Jose is hitting a paltry.213 this year. Is this an aberration? Not really. Over the last two years combined, Jose has an average under .250. If you own him, take this opportunity to market him and his alleged breakout ? DO IT QUICKLY! ? you have a limited window. On the other hand, if you do not own him, keep it that way.

Russell Martin: In what can only be described as odd, bizarre, or just downright dumb, the Dodgers played Russell Martin at 3B last night. Does this mean anything from a fantasy perspective? Answer: Yes. It means that Joe Torre will not let Martin get the rest he needs to stay strong through the whole year. It also means that Martin is even more likely to get hurt than most catchers if he as to play out of position at the hot corner. Bottom line ? you should look to deal Martin in August before he starts a statistical slide.

Josh Willingham: Florida had to place Josh Willingham on the DL with what is being described as a lower back problem. Given Willingham's history, this is hardly a surprise. I am a major proponent of avoiding injury prone players in fantasy. While Willingham will put up quality numbers while on the field, players like him will always cost more than they can produce in the 300-400 AB they will likely get. This injury does present a buying opportunity for those in deep NL leagues. The Marlins called up Brett Carroll. This kid looks good. He hit .315 at AAA last year and hitting around .400 there this year. Expect Carroll to be up a lot this year and produce better than expected results at a very small price.

Reggie Willits: The Angels called up Reggie Willits this week. Where he will play is a mystery. However, the fact is that he hit.293 with 27 SB last year. Given that Vlad will need time at DH, Garrett Anderson is injury prone and Gary Matthews is just not that good, Willits should find a way to get enough ABs to be valuable in deep AL leagues.

Randy Wolf: Padre southpaw Randy Wolf mowed down nine in just six innings Thursday night. So far, Wolf has finally looked like the Wolf of old, with a high K rate and an ERA of around 3.50. Frankly, his success does not really surprise me. He has always struck out more than his share but been bitten by the gopher ? a problem that will be much less severe in the cavern called Petco. If you can, get Wolf now ? he will continue his winning ways in SD.

Kenji Johjima: According to reports, ice cold Kenji Johjima will get a couple of days off. In roto parlance, Kenji is the classic buy low candidate. He is struggling now, but in his prime with two strong years already under his belt. Johjima hit 32 HR and around .290 over the last two years. The same should happen this year. Buy now while you still can get a big discount.

Casey Kotchman: Casey Kotchman had another big night Wednesday, going 3-4, with 3 RBI. Kotchman is hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties. Bottom line ? his time has come. With parts of 4 major league seasons already under his belt at the ripe old age of 25, Kotchman is poised for a major breakout. The success you are seeing is evidence of just that. Players that make the majors at 20 when their peers are still in college or single A have a talent well above the pack. That such early risers do not perform up to their ability right away in the Show is predictable. Those who can see that, get major bargains. Kotchman is one such bargain.

Alex Rodriguez: In news that everyone knows, the Yankees placed ARod on the DL with a strained thigh muscle. This is a good thing for ARod owners and the Yankees. Let him heal and he will get back in Mid-May ready to be ARod ? a force capable of carrying real and fantasy baseball teams alike. Bottom line ? do not panic. By season's end, ARod will have ARod numbers.

And now, next to last, more roto wisdom from Bobby:

Chase-ing the MVP By Bobby Colton

Thus far this season Chase Utley has yet to miss a beat in the Philadelphia Phillies' three-man MVP relay. Two years ago Ryan Howard took home the MVP prize, just one year following his Rookie of the Year campaign. Last season it was Jimmy Rollins' turn to win the MVP. Rollins made very bold statements claiming that his Phillies, not the defending NL East Champs the Mets, were the team to beat that season. Rollins ignited the Phillies' September surge that sent the Mets to an early winter break. Rollins' hardware just added to his spectacular season.

This season the NL East standings are a little out of whack, featuring the abysmal Florida Marlins atop the division while the Phillies, Mets, and Braves all struggle to stay afloat. The Phillies have gotten almost no help from Rollins who went on the DL after injuring his ankle trying to get back to second base on a pickoff attempt. Howard meanwhile, has been struggling to find his swing, batting just .178. He was even benched for two "mental health" days after being just completely ineffective. Howard also has a good shot at breaking his own record for strikeouts, a record that neither the Phillies, nor Howard, is excited about.

While the two former MVPs have been unproductive, Chase Utley has taken the role of team leader. As of Friday morning, Utley ranked 9th in the MLB in RBIs, 5th in runs scored, 5th in average, and was leading the majors in homeruns. Utley's power stroke emerged last season after making the move to the three hole in the order. Unfortunately for Utley, he suffered an injury and missed a month of the season. Utley finished with 22 homers last season. That means that after just the month of April, Utley already has half the homers he hit last season.
It is inevitable that the Florida Marlins will fall out of first place sooner rather than later. If the Phillies take the NL East again, look for Utley to take the MVP award. If the Mets win, David Wright could be poised to grab the MVP honors. If the Braves win the division, Chipper Jones could be the MVP, but that would entail him staying relatively healthy (that's as likely as the Marlins winning the division), the second Brave would be Mark Teixeira. My vote for MVP after April is the Philadelphia second baseman.


And finally, this week's Schultz Says: "It's only the beginning of May and there's more than five months of baseball yet to be played but I'm starting to wonder if it may not be to soon to start worrying about Andruw Jones. In his contract year, Jones responded with his lowest average, home runs and RBI in a decade. Only two seasons removed from a 40 HR season and three away from a 50 HR campaign, there was every reason in the world to think a change of scenery would jolt Andruw back to his former self. Apparently not. 30 games in, his average sits at .161 with 1 HR and 4 RBIs. He should turn it around at some point but he's looked so miserable at the plate I fear it might be too little, too late. If you have him, you can't cut him and no one in their right mind would take him from you. My heart goes out to you cause you're stuck with him.

Moving the pendulum over to the other side, how bout that Max Scherzer? One ridiculously awesome long relief appearance and the kid makes it into the starting rotation. It seems as if the D'Backs aren't going to copy the Joba Rules or do the Braveheart Hold like the Twins did with Johan Santana; they're going to let Scherzer show what he can do. He's scheduled to start against the Phillies on Monday and if he's dominates like he did last Tuesday against Houston (or comes anywhere close), he's not going anywhere for quite some time. If you play in a league of morons and no one has grabbed him yet, remedy that situation immediately.

But before you get all excited about Scherzer, let the ghost of Yovani Gallardo serve as a reminder how tenuous it is to rely on super-young pitchers to anchor your roto-staff. The Brewers 22-year-old ace suffered a torn ACL in his right knee within days of coming off the DL for a torn meniscus in his left knee. While his current year-ending injury came as the result of an unexpected collision, it keeps him from putting up great numbers just as if he blew out his pitching elbow. The potential of young phenom pitchers is too spectacular to ignore and who doesn't drool at the prospect of getting the next Johan Santana for a few years because they nabbed him as a rookie for $1. Remember though, with every reward comes risk and with young pitchers you get lots of risk. See ya next year Yovani.

Response: It would have been much easier for Schultz to just read last week's column and say I was right about Andruw! That said, he is right about relying on young pitchers ? it is just as dangerous as relying on old or injury prone hitters. It is a roto no-no.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Don't be Gallardowned

Losing Yovani Gallardo is a huge blow for the Brewers and fantasy teams alike. Not only have we lost one of the better pitcher's in the game, we've lost one of the best names. Don't despair - at least this week - there's another uniquely named pitcher that should provide fantasy help this week. Find out who below:

[SIZE=+1]Two-Start Pitchers[/SIZE]

American League

Must Start
Daisuke Matsuzaka - @DET (Jeremy Bonderman), @MIN (Kevin Slowey)
Javier Vazquez - @TOR (Dustin McGowan), @SEA (Jarrod Washburn)
Cliff Lee - @NYY (Andy Pettitte), TOR (A.J. Burnett)
Zack Greinke ? LAA (Nick Adenhart), BAL (Brian Burres)
Ervin Santana - @KC (Brian Bannister), @TB (Andy Sonnanstine)
A.J. Burnett ? CHW (Javier Vazquez), @CLE (Cliff Lee)

Other Options (by team)
Matt Albers* - @OAK (Dana Eveland), @KC (Brian Bannister)
Brian Burres - @OAK (Justin Duchscherer), @KC (Zack Greinke)
Tim Wakefield - @DET (Nate Robertson), @MIN (Nick Blackburn)
Gavin Floyd ? MIN (Nick Blackburn), @SEA (Miguel Batista)
Jeremy Bonderman ? BOS (Daisuke Matsuzaka), NYY (Darrell Rasner)
Nate Robertson ? BOS (Tim Wakefield), NYY (Andy Pettitte)
Brian Bannister ? LAA (Ervin Santana), BAL (Matt Albers)
Nick Blackburn - @CHW (Gavin Floyd), BOS (Tim Wakefield)
Andy Pettitte ? CLE (Cliff Lee), @DET (Nate Robertson)
Dana Eveland ? BAL (Matt Albers), @TEX (Sidney Ponson)
Jarrod Washburn ? TEX (Kevin Millwood), CHW (Javier Vazquez)
Miguel Batista ? TEX (Sidney Ponson), CHW (Gavin Floyd)
Andy Sonnanstine - @TOR (A.J. Burnett), LAA (Ervin Santana)
Kevin Millwood - @SEA (Jarrod Washburn), OAK (Greg Smith)
Sidney Ponson - @SEA (Miguel Batista), OAK (Dana Eveland)
Dustin McGowan ? CHW (Javier Vazquez), @CLE (Fausto Carmona)


National League

Must Start
Ryan Dempster - @CIN (Johnny Cueto), ARI (Randy Johnson)
Oliver Perez - @LAD (Chad Billingsley), CIN (Johnny Cueto)
Jamie Moyer - @ARI (Max Scherzer), @SF (Undecided*)

Other Options

Max Scherzer ? PHI (Brett Myers), @CHC (Jason Marquis)
Randy Johnson ? PHI (Adam Eaton), @CHC (Ryan Dempster)
Jair Jurrjens ? SD ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]), @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny)
Johnny Cueto ? CHI (Ryan Dempster), @NYM (Oliver Perez) www.newyorkmets.ws
Ubaldo Jimenez ? STL (Joel Pineiro), @SD (Greg Maddux)
Scott Olsen ? MIL (Jeff Suppan), @WAS (Shawn Hill)
Shawn Chacon ? WAS (Shawn Hill), @LAD (Chad Billingsley)
Chad Billingsley ? NYM (Oliver Perez), HOU (Shawn Chacon)
Jeff Suppan - @FLA (Scott Olsen), STL (Braden Looper)
Tom Gorzelanny ? SF (Jonathan Sanchez), ATL (Jair Jurrjens)
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] - @ATL (Jair Jurrjens), COL (Mark Redman) www.atlantabraves.ws
Jonathan Sanchez - @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny), PHI (Adam Eaton)
Joel Pineiro - @COL (Ubaldo Jimenez), @MIL (Ben Sheets)
Shawn Hill - @HOU (Shawn Chacon), FLA (Scott Olsen)

[SIZE=+1]Possible Streamers[/SIZE]

The following pitchers are available in half of mixed leagues and should make decent starts next week:

American League

Monday, May 5 ? Dana Eveland v. BAL ? Eveland is sporting a 1.42 ERA at home so far this season, and will face the Orioles on Monday night. A second start in Texas means he's worth using. Beware, he was hit hard in his last start, but he still only gave up two walks.

Tuesday, May 6 ? In nine innings against the Athletics last season, Brian Burres allowed just one run and struck out eight. He's had a solid start to the year, and could be a worthy spot starter.

Tuesday, May 6 ? In his only start against Toronto this year, Andy Sonnanstine picked up the win while allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays managed just six hits off him, making this rematch worth consideration.

Friday, May 9 ? Jose Contreras @ SEA - In twelve innings of work against Seattle last season, Contreras earned a 3.00 ERA while striking out nine and walking just one. It's risky, making it a move for gamblers.

National League

Tuesday May 6 ? Jair Jurrjens v. SD ? Jurrjens has gotten off to a great start and is slowly be snatched up in fantasy leagues. Next week he has favorable match-ups against the Padres at home and the Pirates. He's worth grabbing if you're hurting from the loss of Gallardo's stats or the unique name.

Tuesday, May 6 ? Scott Olsen v. MIL ? Streaming a pitcher against Milwaukee isn't the brightest idea, but Olsen shut them out for 7 1/3 last week, and his Sunday matchup against the Nationals makes him a strong option next week.

Tuesday May 6 ? Shawn Chacon v. WAS ? Streaming Shawn Chacon isn't the brightest idea, but he's gotten off to a great start and the Washington offense provides the opportunity for a solid start.

Tuesday May 6 ? What a day for streamers. Jonathan Sanchez has shown plenty of talent this season, and a start against the Pirates shouldn't slow him down. Expect plenty of strikeouts.

Saturday May 10 ? Jamie Moyer SF ? In his lone start against the Giants last season, Moyer allowed three runs in seven innings, but the Giants hit just .185 off him. Still, it's Jamie Moyer, so only the die-hards are going to want to try this one.
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[SIZE=+1]Total Games[/SIZE]

American League
7: BAL, BOS, CHW, DET, KC, SEA, TEX, TOR
6: CLE, ANA, MIN, NYY, OAK, TB

National League
7: ARI, COL, PHI, STL
6: ATL, CHI, CIN, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PIT, SD, SF, WAS


[SIZE=+1]Righty vs. Lefty match-ups[/SIZE]

American League
Baltimore - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Boston - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Texas - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Yankees face four left-handed pitchers, which should help Johnny Damon (.305 vs. LHP over last three years),

National League:
Arizona - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Florida - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Houston - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers ? 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 2 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties, 1 Undecided
San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 1 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Washington - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Reds face three lefties, which is good news for Edwin Encarnacion (.267 vs. LHP), Brandon Phillips (.296 vs. LHP) and Jeff Keppinger (.338 vs. LHP). It's could hurt Ryan Freel (.250 vs. LHP) and Scott Hatteberg (.235 vs. LHP).

The Pirates face three lefties, which should help help Xavier Nady (.319 vs LHP over last three years).

The Cardinals face three lefties, suggesting that Rick Ankiel (.304 career vs. LHP) and Yadier Molina (.270 career vs. LHP) will benefit, while Chris Duncan (.199 career vs. LHP), Skip Schumaker (.254 career vs. LHP) and Ryan Ludwick (.214 career vs. LHP) could struggle.

Washington also has three games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP) and Austin Kearns (.293 career vs. LHP). Christian Guzman (.210 vs. LHP) could struggle.

[SIZE=+1]The Injury Bug[/SIZE]

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Howie Kendrick ? 2B ? Should begin rehab assignment
Rich Harden ? SP ? Should be back this week
Yovani Gallardo ? SP ? Out for the season
Aramis Ramirez ? 3B ? Day-to-day with bruised wrist
Brian Schneider ? C ? Should be playing by start of week
Jimmy Rollins ? SS ? Should return by end of week
Jack Wilson ? SS ? Should return this week
Marlon Byrd ? OF ? Should return this week
B.J. Upton ? OF ? Day-to-day with strained shoulder
Scott Kazmir ? SP ? Will be back by start of week
Troy Tulowitzki ? SS ? Out for two months with torn quad

[SIZE=+1]Waiver Wired[/SIZE]

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's <A href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/column.asp?sport=MLB&columnid=9&articleid=30289">Waiver Wired</B>.

AL

1. Jeff Clement
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
3. Nick Adenhart
4. Armando Galarraga
5. Emil Brown

NL

1. Max Scherzer
2. Aaron Cook
3. Jayson Werth
4. Luis Castillo
5. John Lannan

 

[Hache Man]

BOOKMAKER.COM's 2008 MLB PICK THE DOG ~STANDINGS~ After Wed 4/30/08

BOOKMAKER.COM's 2008 MLB PICK THE DOG ~STANDINGS~ After Wed 4/30/08

AL Team-by-Team Notes
Lyle Overbay keeps getting on base at a nice clip, but he's hit just three homers in 316 at-bats since returning from a broken hamate bone last year. He has a total of four extra-base hits this season, leaving him with a .337 slugging percentage. He's hitting more balls on the ground than ever before, and when he does get it into the air, he's not scorching liners like he used to. The injury Overbay suffered is known for reducing a player's power, but the effect tends to last an additional month or two after the player returns. In this case, it's stretched into the next year, creating doubt about whether he'll ever be the player he was. He looks through as a quality option in mixed leagues at this point. Maybe he'll yet turn it around, but the upside isn't there to make him worth waiting around for.

American League Notes

Baltimore - That the Orioles have boasted such solid results from their pitching staff is the biggest reason they're still over .500 on the season, but it's hard to see it lasting. The group currently has a 168/129 K/BB ratio to go along with a 4.19 ERA. Entering Saturday's game, the Orioles had the third-fewest strikeouts and fourth-most walks in the AL. Jeremy Guthrie, looking very solid once again this year, is the only starter with a 2:1 K/BB ratio. Brian Burres is off to the same kind of fluky start he had last year and is likely to fade just as rapidly. I think Daniel Cabrera has made real progress, but not to the point at which he's close to fulfilling his upside. If Garrett Olson can stick in the rotation over Matt Albers with Adam Loewen sidelined, he'd be an intriguing pickup in AL-only leagues. It was command that held him back after he debuted last year, but he impressed this spring and again in Triple-A last month. He's not worth playing yet, but he'd be nice to have stashed away. ? It looked like this might be the week Alex Cintron was called up to help out at shortstop, but he had to go home from Triple-A following a death in his family. There's still a good chance he'll start taking time away from Luis Hernandez soon.

Boston - Jon Lester now has 33 major league starts (and one relief appearance) under his belt, the equivalent of one full season. In 184 career innings, he's allowed 190 hits, walked 97 and struck out 132. He's given up 22 homers. Expectations were that his velocity would improve more now that he's had a full year to recover from chemotherapy, but he's never touched 95 mph in the majors like he did in the minors. He's typically in the 89-92 mph range. His best offering might be his cutter, and his curve is a quality breaking ball. Even without the big-time heat, he looks like a potential No. 2 at times. However, the poor command makes him a No. 4 right now. It doesn't look like the breakthrough is coming, and the Red Sox will be hurting themselves in the short-term if they bypass him and send down Clay Buchholz when Bartolo Colon comes up. It might be the right decision anyway because of the need to monitor Buchholz's innings, but Buchholz is clearly the better pitcher right now. ? Mike Lowell is trying to pull absolutely every pitch he sees and still doesn't have an RBI after 50 at-bats this season. Mixed leaguers should be able to do better at third base, at least for this week.

Chicago - Far be it from me to disagree with Joe Morgan, but I don't think Jermaine Dye is in for a great season or even a very good one. He's the White Sox's third-best outfielder both offensively and defensively right now. He does have a solid enough average after 24 games, but it comes with a 21/7 K/BB ratio. His power numbers are also rather unimpressive, mostly because he's hitting the ball on the ground more than usual. Good fastballs seem to be getting past him with more frequency than ever before. He'll make adjustments and end up with fair home run and RBI numbers, but he's just a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues. ? Alexei Ramirez was placed on the restricted list for the trip to Toronto he couldn't make due to visa troubles. It'd have made a whole lot more sense just to option him to Triple-A. Ramirez is hitting .121 in 33 at-bats to date. He's not helping the White Sox, and he'd be a lot more likely to contribute later on if given regular at-bats in the minors. The White Sox will probably have him switch places with Jerry Owens sometime soon.

Cleveland - Travis Hafner's slow start has added to the doubt whether he's ever going to return to 2006 form. The especially scary thing is that his numbers are this bad even with all of his line drives falling in (12-for-16). As those who have watched him can attest, it's not poor luck that's done him in; he's really played this badly. I'm more concerned than I would normally be for someone with his track record. He still has significant value while batting in the middle of a lineup that's sure to improve, but he could be finished as a .300 hitter. If the Indians had it to do over again, they wouldn't have given him the $52 million extension last summer. ? Even if Rafael Betancourt was perfect while Joe Borowski was on the DL, there's a good chance Borowski would have been given a chance to win back his job. Betancourt, though, has taken a loss and a blown save while giving up four runs in his last two appearances. Borowski is still a couple of weeks away from returning from his biceps strain, but all signs point to him returning to the closer's role before the end of the month.

Detroit - Not that he's been a stud at the beginning of his starts, but it's late in outings that Justin Verlander is getting killed. He's given up seven runs in 2 2/3 innings when asked to go beyond the sixth this season. His velocity still isn't quite where it should be, at least not consistently, but command has been the bigger problem. His curveball and changeup have still looked pretty good most of the time. It wouldn't come as a complete shock to find out that he's hurting, but I don't really believe that's the case. It's not the time to make a big play for him if you don't have him, but those already in possession of him should stand pat. ? According to MLB.com, Dontrelle Willis (knee) hit 95 mph on the radar gun while throwing 71 of his 92 pitches for strikes during his rehab start on Friday. I'm skeptical, but if it's true, he'd suddenly look like a much better bet in AL-only leagues. Even if the fastball wasn't there, the improved control was a good sign. ? Armando Galarraga has been a nice stopgap for the Tigers, but he'll probably be booted from the rotation after Willis makes one more rehab start. The Tigers might be better off if Kenny Rogers suffers an injury as conveniently times as Willis's.

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Kansas City - How much longer can the Royals live with Tony Pena Jr.'s .157/.174/.205 line when Alberto Callaspo is hitting .368/.429/.447 in 38 at-bats off the bench? Pena may be the AL's best defensive shortstop, but he's still no one's ideal solution as a long-term regular. The Royals likely will go shortstop hunting again this summer after trying in vain to pick up Chin-Lung Hu from the Dodgers last year. In the meantime, Callaspo looks like their best option. Pena isn't this bad, but Callaspo should best him in OPS by 100-150 points the rest of the way. ? With two solid outings following a poor season debut, Luke Hochevar has made a case to stay in the rotation. John Bale (arm) could come off the disabled list as a reliever, displacing the struggling Yasuhiko Yabuta. Brett Tomko still shouldn't feel particularly safe, though, as the Royals do have Kyle Davies in Triple-A. I'm not yet very fond of Hochevar for fantasy purposes.

Los Angeles - Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana are off to incredibly similar outstanding starts. Both are 5-0. Saunders has allowed 31 hits and 10 walks in 43 1/3 innings. Santana has given up 30 hits and nine walks in 40 innings. Both have surrendered three homers. The only real difference is that Santana has nine additional strikeouts. Both should be considered sell-high candidates at this point. I think Saunders is the better pitcher, but the strikeouts aren't going to come and he does have a history of shoulder problems. With the Angels relying on him to be a horse, I could see him going down with an arm injury. Santana probably doesn't have quite as much perceived value, and there are no flashing red lights saying he has to be moved now. Still, he is in somewhat over his head. He will begin giving up more homers once his schedule gets tougher. I certainly wouldn't suggest dropping either in a shallow mixed league, but parting with one for a quality hitter off to a disappointing start would be a good idea. ? That the Angels recalled Reggie Willits and gave him two straight starts shows how little faith they have in Juan Rivera right now. The Blue Jays, Braves, Astros and maybe the Yankees are teams that should be interested if the Angels make him available. They certainly don't need both he and Willits. ? If Howie Kendrick (hamstring) plays in a minor league game as hoped on Sunday, he should be fine to activate for this week.

Minnesota - Nick Blackburn does get a few more grounders than the average hurler, but that he's allowed just one homer in 38 1/3 innings this season is a fluke. He's given up 47 hits and struck out only 19 in 38 1/3 innings. His cutter should serve to keep him in the majors, but once American Leaguers get more used to it, it's not going to be such an effective weapon. While he probably has a month or two left as a solid starter in AL-only leagues, he isn't likely to last as more than a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. ? Carlos Gomez will apparently avoid the DL after a scary head injury on Friday. He's fine to leave active for this week. ? Scott Baker aggravated his groin injury during his start on Saturday and could be forced to the disabled list. With Phil Humber struggling, Glen Perkins and Kevin Mulvey would seem to be the top candidates to take his spot in the rotation. Perkins is the better sleeper for this year. ? Kevin Slowey (biceps) will rejoin the rotation this week regardless of what happens to Baker. He should be activated immediately.

New York - With Alex Rodriguez (quad) and Jorge Posada (shoulder) on the shelf, the Yankees really need Robinson Cano to snap out of it. Cano has fanned only 15 times in 113 at-bats, so it's incredible that he's hitting just .150. The slump can't last for much longer, and he's pretty much the ultimate buy-low candidate at this point. ? Morgan Ensberg has just one extra-base hit in 55 at-bats, so the Yankees could give Wilson Betemit (eye) a look at third base if he comes off the DL this week. With Alberto Gonzalez also in the mix, it's possible none of the Yankees' options at third base will get enough playing time to generate value with A-Rod sidelined. ? Darrell Rasner will be the choice to replace Phil Hughes (rib) in the rotation on Sunday. He shouldn't be an every-week option in AL-only leagues, but with the run support he'll get, he'll be worth using most of the time. He had a 4.01 ERA in six starts for the Yankees last year. ? The Yankees are sending out signals that they won't demote Ian Kennedy following his loss to the Tigers. It's surely in part because they have no one else in Triple-A they'd like to turn to. Kennedy can't be used with a rematch against the Tigers next on the schedule, but I'm still guessing that he'll be able to work through his command problems in the majors. He's not as far off his game as Hughes was.

Oakland - Incredibly, the A's have managed to find roster space for Jack Cust, Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney so far. Travis Buck's DL stint has helped out, and with Emil Brown driving in runs like crazy, one has to wonder whether Buck will have a spot when he's ready to return from shin splints. The A's can demote Chris Denorfia to make room for him, but it'd be pointless unless they were willing to start him against right-handers. As is, they might prefer Cust and Brown in the outfield corners. ? Rich Harden (back) is set to return after one more rehab start Tuesday. He might face the Rangers next Sunday, so AL-only leaguers with limited options could consider activating him for the week. ? Since the A's currently have five starters with sub-4.00 ERAs, they'll have a tough call when it comes to making room for Harden. Greg Smith is pitching as well as anyone on the team, but he still might be the top candidate to go. It'd only be a short-term demotion anyway, as it's not like there's any chance of both Harden and Justin Duchscherer going a month without getting hurt.

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Seattle - Just how much money are the Mariners swimming in? Obviously, it was enough so that they could cut Brad Wilkerson a month into a $3 million contract and call up Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien a week ahead of when they would have ruled out any chance of the two top prospects becoming a free agent after 2013. Of course, the person who will receive credit for the latter moves, GM Bill Bavasi, has no chance of still being with the team then, so what does he care? Clement will get the opportunity to be a part-time catcher as well as a DH against right-handers, making him a particularly good bet. He'll definitely be worth using in two-catcher mixed leagues once he qualifies behind the plate. Balentien probably isn't as ready for the majors. He'll drive some fastballs out of the park, but coming up with singles will be a problem. It was worth giving him a look. I just don't think it was necessary to cut Wilkerson to make it happen. Miguel Cairo is still on the roster, after all. ? J.J. Putz's command problems aren't very worrisome. He was essentially on a rehab assignment his first couple of appearances back from a rib-cage strain. His velocity is fine, and the rest should come along soon enough.

Tampa Bay - So far, it's the Carlos Pena of old who has showed up for the Rays. He does have six homers, but those come with a .214 average and just one double. Jonny Gomes has about 100 points of OPS on him. Because he bats in a premium position in what's shaping up as a solid lineup top to bottom, Pena is still a pretty good bet for this season. He's always been streaky, and even if his average ends up around .250, he'll likely get his 100 RBI to go along with 30 homers. I wouldn't suggest paying a hefty price for him in fantasy leagues, but there's also no reason to sell. ? Andy Sonnanstine's strong showing against the Orioles has allowed him to retain his rotation spot with Scott Kazmir back. Jason Hammel still has a better ERA than Edwin Jackson or Matt Garza, but sending him to the pen was the right move. He's not as good as Sonnanstine right now, and he doesn't have Jackson's upside. ? Cliff Floyd (knee) could return before the end of the week, but it's nothing anyone should count on. When he does get back, both Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes will lose playing time. Nathan Haynes could be bumped from the roster.

Texas - I received plenty of complaints about Josh Hamilton's ranking last week, and I'll probably look pretty silly if he ends up playing 150 games. However, he was injury-prone before his drug problems and he was limited to 90 games last year. He may be a worse bet to stay healthy than any AL position player. Selling high wouldn't be a bad idea. ? The Rangers called up Jarrod Saltamalacchia, but aren't giving him any time at first base or DH, even though they have plenty of at-bats available with Ben Broussard in a horrible slump. Instead, they're mixing in Chris Shelton at first and giving Brandon Boggs time in left. Salty is in line for more at-bats eventually, but he's not going to be an asset in mixed leagues in the short term. ? The Rangers should seriously consider forgetting about Marlon Byrd (knee) and keeping Boggs around as a four-game-per-week starter in the outfield. Whichever way they go there, it looks like Frank Catalanotto's role is only going to be further reduced. With about $9 million left on his contract, he has no trade value at all. ? Ramon Vazquez is the better bet in AL-only leagues than German Duran while Hank Blalock (hamstring) is out, though he has little in the way of upside. Duran at least has some pop in his bat, but as bad as the Rangers' infield defense has been, it's hard to blame Ron Washington for wanting to go with the superior glove at third.

Toronto - Adam Lind is up, but he's off to an awful start as the replacement for Thomas. Just 1-for-16 after five games, he's now sporting a .251/.294/.418 line in 366 at-bats as a major leaguer. Part of the problem is that seven of his at-bats this season have come against lefties. Lind won't be an asset versus southpaws anytime soon, and the Jays would be better off using Matt Stairs if one of the two has to play against left-handers. Lind is likely to do just fine against righties. He could get to 20 homers even after the late start, and he'd probably hit at least .260 as a true platoon player. With no other internal options and seemingly no desire at all to pursue Barry Bonds, the Jays will have to remain patient. ? Diminished velocity hasn't prevented B.J. Ryan from throwing seven scoreless innings and striking out 10. It appears that he's still at least a week away from pitching on back-to-back days for the first time, but things are definitely looking up. If he needs to, he can be successful all year while throwing 88-90 mph.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

NL Team-by-Team Notes
I didn't think it was a problem that the Cubs' were using their second-best reliever as their closer. Having Carlos Marmol available in the seventh and eighth and Kerry Wood finish up in the ninth was exactly the right arrangement for the team at the start of the year. However, it may be time to reevaluate. It has little to do with Wood's struggles. Yes, he's blown four saves, but he has a 0.87 WHIP and he's given up just one homer in 15 innings. The real reason to go in a different direction is that Carlos Marmol is going to be on the DL by July 1 if it doesn't happen. Marmol has thrown 21 innings through the Cubs' 31 games this season, and while he has been dominant, it takes him a lot of pitches to get his outs. He's thrown 338 pitches this season, nearly half of them sliders. Wood is at 201. Billy Wagner has thrown 170. The NL's busiest closer, Jose Valverde, is at 305. The extraordinary workload Marmol has been asked to undertake would seem to make him a very poor bet for the second half unless something changes soon. Making him a one-inning closer might be the only way to save him from Piniella's wrath.

National League Notes

Arizona - Max Scherzer flashed enormous potential while retiring all 13 hitters he faced, striking out seven of them, in his major league debut Tuesday against the Astros. Now he'll get to join the rotation in place of Edgar Gonzalez. It could be a short-term assignment with Doug Davis likely to return from thyroid cancer surgery later this month, but he's worth playing in all formats while starting. If everything goes well for Davis, Scherzer could be reassigned to the bullpen later. However, his performance this year has put to bed talk that he's going to be a long-term reliever. ? Orlando Hudson doesn't appear ready to return from a hamstring injury, so mixed leaguers will probably want to look elsewhere this week. NL-only leaguers can take their chances with him. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] (knee) is set to begin his rehab assignment Tuesday, so the time to sell high on Mark Reynolds is running out. Reynolds isn't going to the bench when Tracy gets back, but he figures to lose some of his value.

Atlanta - That John Smoltz's shoulder woes will at least temporarily force him into the closer's role after he comes off the DL really shakes things up in Atlanta. Rafael Soriano, on the DL himself with an elbow injury, might yet get the job back if Smoltz is able to go back into the rotation after the break. However, Mike Gonzalez will also be an option by then. In fact, Gonzalez could return from Tommy John surgery before either Smoltz or Soriano is activated. He'd serve as a setup man for Manny Acosta initially. On the off chance that everyone is healthy for any length of time, the Braves could suddenly find themselves in possession of the game's best bullpen. Unfortunately, the rotation will suffer. Now it's a must that Jair Jurrjens remain a consistent force alongside Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine. Jo-Jo Reyes could get a long look in one of the remaining two spots. He has upside, but throwing strikes is still a problem. He should be picked up in NL-only leagues anyway. The fifth spot is currently Jeff Bennett's, but Chuck James could be back soon to get another shot.

Chicago - Sending down Rich Hill to work through his command problems was the right move, assuming that the Cubs don't make the mistake of burying him. All indications are that he'll be brought right back as soon as he starts throwing strikes. He's still likely to have some value in mixed leagues later this year. In the meantime, Jon Lieber will be worth using in NL-only leagues. ? Aramis Ramirez missed a second game Sunday with a sore wrist, but he needs to be kept active in all formats.

Cincinnati - No one should be overreacting to Johnny Cueto's current 5.40 ERA when he still has an excellent 1.09 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 35 innings. He is giving up homers and pitching in front of arguably the game's worst outfield defense has cost him, but he's still looking like a pretty good bet. ? Bronson Arroyo, on the other hand, has some real problems. He's overthrowing both his slider and curve, so neither has its usual amount of break, and his changeup has been worthless against left-handers. He's enough off his game that the Reds really should consider sending him to the pen. It'd be another way to get Homer Bailey into the rotation. ? Ryan Freel is starting to win more time in center. He's the best hitter of the Reds' current options in center field, though he doesn't match Corey Patterson defensively. Because Freel is also quite injury prone, it'd make sense to keep using Patterson against righties at least three times per week. Jerry Hairston Jr. started just once last week (in right field to give Ken Griffey Jr. a break), so he seems out of the mix for now.

Colorado - It hardly makes his loss any easier to take that Troy Tulowitzki was struggling so mightily at the plate The Rockies' remaining middle-infield options are all 25th men. Clint Barmes has already cooled off, as a 3-for-25 slump has dropped his average to .280. Because of his microscopic walk rate, he's a lousy player when he's not hitting for average. Omar Quintanilla is a fine defender and a patient hitter, but he has no power to speak of. Jeff Baker isn't really a second baseman, though the Rockies might as well keep using him there when Aaron Cook isn't pitching. Jon Herrera is probably a year away. Juan Castro, signed to a minor league contract, could be called on to provide his own unique brand of "help" next week. For fantasy purposes, Baker's power makes him the best of the group. I think Quintanilla should play more than Barmes, but it probably won't happen anytime soon. Barmes is still the better bet in NL-only leagues. ? Ubaldo Jimenez fared better against the Giants last week, but he needs another strong outing Monday against the Cardinals to secure his rotation spot. That's the case even though the Rockies are currently starting both Mark Redman and Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa was awful Saturday against the Dodgers, but he'll get at least one more shot. Next in line is probably Josh Towers, even though his Triple-A ERA stands at 6.12. Fortunately, the Rockies haven't given any thought to putting Taylor Buchholz back into the rotation. He's turning into an excellent short reliever.

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Florida - I'd be more excited about Scott Olsen's start if he didn't have just 15 strikeouts in 40 innings. The talent has always been there for him to develop into a No. 2 starter, but the numbers say he's been at least as lucky as good so far. I don't know that it's completely true -- his changeup, in particular, looks a lot better than it did last year -- but he's still walking batters and he's due to start giving up the occasional homer. He's not a great play in mixed leagues. ? Hanley Ramirez's fantasy value was mostly unaffected by the move to the third spot in Florida's lineup. Dan Uggla stands to lose big after going from second to sixth, but he's been on fire since the switch. His owners might want to see about selling high if he can build up his value over the next couple of weeks. If the switches don't last, it will probably be because Alfredo Amezaga and Cody Ross fail as Ramirez's replacement in the leadoff spot. The Marlins should still be in the market for center-field alternatives. If they fancy themselves contenders, then perhaps Kenny Lofton would be a possibility. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3797"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4378"]Luis Gonzalez[/URL][/URL] has value in NL-only leagues while Josh Willingham rests his sore back for the next two weeks.

Houston - Since Wandy Rodriguez (groin) won't return this week as hoped, the Astros are hurting for starters. Chris Sampson may get to stay in the rotation despite a 7.96 ERA, and Brian Moehler might make his first start since 2006. A better idea than going to Moehler would be to reach down to Triple-A Round Rock for left-hander Josh Muecke, though he's not going to be a long-term fix. Fernando Nieve might be, but he's still not all of the way back from Tommy John surgery. He currently has a 5.28 ERA through six starts for Round Rock. ? With Ty Wigginton and Kaz Matsui back, the Astros are free to resume discussing Mark Loretta in deals. Loretta is hitting just .211/.299/.263, but there's still some interest in him around the league. If the Astros could get a major league reliever for him, they'd have to consider it. The Padres and Dodgers could make plays for him after losing out on Juan Castro.

Los Angeles - Putting a Gold Glove catcher at third base seems crazy, but the Dodgers actually did it on back-to-back days. It can't be a real break for Russell Martin, even if it does free him from having to squat 150 times per day. He still needs actual rest on occasion. Otherwise, it's likely that he'll wear down again this season. ? Andy LaRoche was still at least a week away anyway as he continued to rehab his thumb injury. Now he's been optioned down, creating doubt about when he'll get his chance. Blake DeWitt has played quite well since returning to the majors when Nomar Garciaparra got hurt, so there was no reason for the Dodgers to make the switch at present. Still, they need to give LaRoche a real look, as he offers the best potential combination of offense and defensive of the team's options at third. He should be 100 percent by the end of the month. ? With off days Thursday and next Monday, it sounds like the Dodgers will go without a fifth starter for now. Esteban Loaiza may again be the choice next time one is needed on May 17, but by early June, either Jason Schmidt (shoulder) or top prospect Clayton Kershaw could be a possibility.

Milwaukee - Eric Gagne's fifth blown save on Sunday is going to force the Brewers to seriously consider making a change in the closer's role. Besides recent callup Mitch Stetter, who isn't a legitimate alternative, the Brewers' best relievers have been Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota. Of the two, Mota would make more sense in the ninth, primarily because Torres is most valuable when he's entering with men on base and working more than one inning. Mota, though, has issued 10 walks in 15 innings this season, and it's hardly likely that the Brewers will want to trade one frustratingly wild closer for another. Sticking with Gagne is probably the best option for now. If he's still struggling in a couple of weeks, it will be time to go to Mota or maybe David Riske, if he starts throwing better. ? The devastating knee injury suffered by Yovani Gallardo has Dave Bush back in Milwaukee's rotation. Bush is a spot starter in NL-only leagues at this point. ? If Manny Parra doesn't work through his problems soon, he might be sent down in favor of Jeff Weaver later this month. Parra should have much better than a .330 average against and a 22/17 K/BB ratio after six starts. It'd be a mistake for NL-only leaguers to give up on him, but it is disappointing to see him failing to pitch up to his ability.

New York - Carlos Delgado's awful start has helped Carlos Beltran's struggles go relatively unnoticed. Beltran, though, has a .210 average and just two homers to date. Perhaps more than any other star in baseball, Beltran just isn't any good when he has to play at less than 100 percent, and he still isn't completely recovered from offseason surgery on both knees. I think he qualifies as a buy-low candidate, but an immediate turnaround probably isn't on the way. ? Moises Alou's return Friday put Angel Pagan on the bench. Alou won't be an everyday player as the Mets try to keep him healthy, but he's still good enough that he makes for a decent play in mixed leagues while starting five games per week. It'll help that he's hitting right behind David Wright and Beltran. ? Claudio Vargas had a rough debut for Triple-A New Orleans on Sunday, giving up six runs in four innings. It looks like Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa are safe for a couple of more weeks anyway.

Philadelphia - Brett Myers struck out 10 and showed his best fastball of the season Saturday against the Giants. He did give up another homer -- his 11th in seven starts -- but it was an encouraging showing. ? I don't always like his in-game moves, but Charlie Manuel has done a very nice job of handling his lineup this year. With Shane Victorino back, he has decisions to make every day in the outfield, at third base and behind the plate, yet he's done a fine job of keeping everyone in the mix. Before a well-deserved off day Sunday, Jayson Werth had been a fixture in the outfield. He'll remain the starter until he slumps, meaning Victorino and Geoff Jenkins could share time pretty evenly. Mixed leaguers capable of waiting to activate Victorino should do so until he reemerges as an everyday player. Along with Werth, Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste have been picking up at-bats. Pedro Feliz remains the nominal starter at third base, but Dobbs will start against every second righty anyway. He has the better OPS versus righties by 250 points. Coste seems to have cooled off just as he was on his way to winning additional time. Ruiz remains easily the better bet of the two catchers for fantasy purposes. ? Jimmy Rollins (ankle) is hoping to come off the DL on Thursday.

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Pittsburgh - The Pirates have no starters with an ERA under 4.50 or more than two wins. That Matt Morris was put out to pasture can only help, but there still isn't a lot of reason for optimism beyond the inevitable Ian Snell turnaround. Tom Gorzelanny appears to be pitching hurt, and the back strain that will give him this week off could qualify as good news. Zach Duke has just 10 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings, and as poor as the Pirates' defense is, there's no way he can succeed while getting so few outs himself. Paul Maholm has been adequate, but that's as good as it gets for him. Phil Dumatrait isn't any sort of answer as the replacement for Morris, and with no prospects ready, the Pirates need to be keeping an eye on the waiver wire for alternatives. They also shouldn't be ruling out trading Xavier Nady for a young starter. His value will never he higher. ? Since [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL] finally seems to have turned it around, he'll stop losing at-bats to Doug Mientkiewicz and Chris Gomez. Adam LaRoche is next. ? Jack Wilson had a setback with his strained calf, so it doesn't look like he'll return this week. Brian Bixler will be sent down once Wilson comes off the DL.

St. Louis - That Jason Isringhausen has already blown more saves this year (three) than he did all of 2007 (two) is of some concern, but there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him at all. His cut fastball is still moving, and if he's not hitting his spots, well, he's never been known for his pinpoint command. He should be fine. ? Mark Mulder (shoulder) was ripped in his fourth rehab start, seemingly eliminating any chance of an early return from the DL. The Cardinals still don't want to bump anyone from their rotation anyway. There's a real chance that Mulder won't prove to be an upgrade on any of the current starters. He's likely to get his shot regardless come May 21. Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro look like the candidates to go to the pen to make room for him. ? Pineiro is questionable to make his start Monday because of a sore back. Mike Parisi could be called on to fill in for him.

San Diego - The Padres appear to be leaning towards pulling Justin Germano out of the rotation and replacing him with Wilfredo Ledezma or Glendon Rusch. Neither southpaw is worth an immediate pickup in NL-only leagues, but Ledezma does have some upside. It seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance the Padres could bypass both and go to Shawn Estes. He did have a quality start five years ago, after all. ? The move to gamble on Jim Edmonds didn't seem like a bad one, but the 37-year-old has been awful at the plate this year and he's not making up for it with his glove. If there's one team that could really use Coco Crisp, it's San Diego. Jake Peavy's suggestion that the Padres make a play for Lofton also looks like a good one. Edmonds should get the rest of the month to improve, but the future looks bleak for him.

San Francisco - The No. 1 complaint from last week's May rankings involved leaving out Jonathan Sanchez. I do regret it, though it was more a judgment error than an oversight. I still wouldn't put him any higher than the 95-105 range among SPs. We know he can strike out batters, but command remains a major issue and it's not like he's going to rack up victories. It figures that he'll be pretty inconsistent. ? Barry Zito's bullpen stint won't last long at all, but it may give him a chance to tweak his delivery a bit. He needs to do something in an attempt to either add velocity or deception. I wonder how much differently things would have gone had the Giants let Zito proceed with the new windup he came up with heading into spring training 2007. The team quickly pressured him into ditching his longer stride that might have helped lead to more velocity. They figure to be a lot more open-minded about any proposed changes at this point. ? The Giants face five lefties this week, making John Bowker a poor play in NL-only leagues. Fred Lewis will probably start at least three of the games, so he can be left active in NL-only leagues. However, any mixed leaguers that picked him up should look elsewhere for the week.

Washington - A torn muscle below Chad Cordero's shoulder is supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks, but it's obviously going to be longer than that before he's again an option in fantasy leagues. If Jon Rauch was already a 50/50 bet to close for the Nats for the rest of the year, it's more like 70/30 now. ? With a .226 average on balls in play, Nick Johnson has been one of the game's unluckiest hitters to date. Incredibly, he's the Nationals' RBI leader anyway, as he's saved his best work for big situations. The singles will come, and there will be times this year during which he'll be worth using in shallow mixed leagues. Of course, he's still a great bet to serve a DL stint or two. ? Matt Chico, who is 0-5 with a 6.87 ERA, apparently hasn't punched his ticket back to Triple-A just yet, but it could happen if he doesn't turn in a better outing against the Marlins this weekend. Jason Bergmann would be the top candidate to replace him. ? Due to face both the Astros and Marlins, Shawn Hill looks like a solid choice as at least a one-week option in NL-only leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Laffey All the Way to the Bank

Pitchers injuring themselves by punching things with their throwing hand is a long-standing baseball tradition that John Bale stupidly continued Friday night. Perhaps frustrated by his slow recovery from a shoulder injury and the possibility that he'll be sent back to the bullpen once he does return, Bale used his left hand to punch a wall at the Royals' team hotel and then tried to keep the injury a secret for nearly 24 hours.

"I'm not pleased, obviously," manager Trey Hillman said. "Players have to think before they do things. Think about how it's going to affect the rest of the team, how it's going to affect their ability to perform. I'm hopeful that there's something salvageable for him." Rather than returning in two weeks, Bale is now out for two months and has probably punched away whatever chance he had of rejoining the rotation by giving Luke Hochevar an extended opportunity to stick.

While Bale contemplates the wisdom of at least using his non-pitching hand when feeling the need to fight with inanimate, immovable objects in the future, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* As a big fan of extreme ground-ball pitchers, Aaron Laffey has been one of my favorite sleepers for the past couple years. He went 13-4 with a 2.88 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season before holding his own in nine outings with the Indians, and then began this year 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A before being called back up to Cleveland when Jake Westbrook headed to the disabled list.

Laffey had an uneven first start last week against the Yankees, but was fantastic Sunday versus the Royals. He took the loss thanks to the Indians' lineup being shut out by Gil Meche, but gave up only an unearned run over seven innings, threw 70 of 103 pitches for strikes, and got 13 outs via either strikeout or ground ball. In 11 starts with the Indians dating back to last season, Laffey has induced nearly 3.5 ground balls for every fly ball, allowing just two homers over 62 innings.

He'll never miss enough bats to be a true fantasy stud, but Laffey is an excellent long-term bet in AL-only leagues because he throws strikes, gets a reasonable number of strikeouts, and forces hitters to pound the ball into the ground. To put his 3.43-to-1 ground-to-fly ratio in some context, consider that only Derek Lowe (3.46), Brandon Webb (3.34), and Fausto Carmona (3.28) had a ratio above 3-to-1 among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season.

* It wasn't what they had in mind when refusing to part with young pitching in exchange for Johan Santana this winter, but after placing Phil Hughes on the disabled list last week the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the minors Sunday. Like Hughes, Kennedy has been a mess this season, going 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA while walking 20 batters over 23.2 innings. Unlike Hughes, he doesn't have an injury as a built-in excuse.

There's speculation that manager Joe Girardi wanted to show more patience with Kennedy, but was overruled by the front office. If true that's not a great sign for Girardi or the Yankees, because the likely replacements for Kennedy are Kei Igawa or Jeff Marquez. Igawa was a massive bust last season and Marquez is a 23-year-old mid-level prospect with a career 169-to-78 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 252.2 innings who currently has a 7.47 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A.

* Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list Sunday and lasted just four innings against the Red Sox, allowing four runs while using 90 pitches to record a dozen outs. It clearly wasn't a strong outing, especially considering his 2.66 career ERA against Boston, but Kazmir did strike out five batters and showed good stuff while struggling with command. He'll face the Angels next later this week and it's worth taking the risk of putting him back in your lineup.

* Bronson Arroyo tossed his first Quality Start of the season against the Cardinals on April 28, but wiped away whatever progress he made by turning in the shortest start of his career Sunday. He threw a scoreless first inning, but then got just one out in the second frame while allowing seven runs against the Braves. Arroyo's ERA went from 6.97 to 8.63 with the beating, but his 29-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 32.1 innings suggests that he still has a chance to turn things around.

AL Quick Hits: David Ortiz was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to continued soreness in his right knee ? Roy Halladay's streak of consecutive complete games was snapped at four Sunday, but he beat the White Sox and has gone at least seven innings in every start this season ? After going 2-for-3 in a minor-league rehab game Sunday at Single-A, Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is expected to return from the disabled list Monday ? With Scott Baker (groin) hurting, Kevin Slowey (biceps) will come off the shelf to start Thursday against the White Sox ? John Lackey (triceps) allowed two runs over four innings during a rehab start Sunday at Single-A and remains on track to rejoin the Angels' rotation around mid-May ? With B.J. Ryan unavailable to pitch on a second straight day, Jeremy Accardo started the ninth inning Sunday and Scott Downs got the save by coming in to get A.J. Pierzynski for the final out ? Dontrelle Wills (knee) experienced a setback Friday and his return timetable has been pushed back 10 days ? Carlos Silva's ERA rose from 2.79 to 4.20 after he coughed up eight runs on 11 hits Sunday against the Yankees.

NL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne blew his MLB-leading fifth save Sunday, walking three batters while allowing two runs ? Peter Moylan (elbow) had to end his Saturday throwing session after just seven pitches, suggesting that Tommy John surgery could be on the horizon ? Orlando Hudson (hamstring) walked as a pinch-hitter Sunday and was removed for a pinch-runner, signaling that he's not yet ready to rejoin the lineup ? Chipper Jones went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBIs Sunday, giving him an amazing .425-9-27 line through 28 games ? Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday ? Mike Hampton (pectoral) said Saturday that he considered retiring following his latest setback, but will instead attempt to return at some point next month ? After picking up a victory Sunday night, long-time reliever Todd Wellemeyer is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 76-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 career starts ? Paul Bako came into the year as a career .233 hitter with 15 homers in 2,000 plate appearances, but is now batting .312 with three homers after going deep Sunday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Laffey All the Way to the Bank

Pitchers injuring themselves by punching things with their throwing hand is a long-standing baseball tradition that John Bale stupidly continued Friday night. Perhaps frustrated by his slow recovery from a shoulder injury and the possibility that he'll be sent back to the bullpen once he does return, Bale used his left hand to punch a wall at the Royals' team hotel and then tried to keep the injury a secret for nearly 24 hours.

"I'm not pleased, obviously," manager Trey Hillman said. "Players have to think before they do things. Think about how it's going to affect the rest of the team, how it's going to affect their ability to perform. I'm hopeful that there's something salvageable for him." Rather than returning in two weeks, Bale is now out for two months and has probably punched away whatever chance he had of rejoining the rotation by giving Luke Hochevar an extended opportunity to stick.

While Bale contemplates the wisdom of at least using his non-pitching hand when feeling the need to fight with inanimate, immovable objects in the future, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* As a big fan of extreme ground-ball pitchers, Aaron Laffey has been one of my favorite sleepers for the past couple years. He went 13-4 with a 2.88 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season before holding his own in nine outings with the Indians, and then began this year 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A before being called back up to Cleveland when Jake Westbrook headed to the disabled list.

Laffey had an uneven first start last week against the Yankees, but was fantastic Sunday versus the Royals. He took the loss thanks to the Indians' lineup being shut out by Gil Meche, but gave up only an unearned run over seven innings, threw 70 of 103 pitches for strikes, and got 13 outs via either strikeout or ground ball. In 11 starts with the Indians dating back to last season, Laffey has induced nearly 3.5 ground balls for every fly ball, allowing just two homers over 62 innings.

He'll never miss enough bats to be a true fantasy stud, but Laffey is an excellent long-term bet in AL-only leagues because he throws strikes, gets a reasonable number of strikeouts, and forces hitters to pound the ball into the ground. To put his 3.43-to-1 ground-to-fly ratio in some context, consider that only Derek Lowe (3.46), Brandon Webb (3.34), and Fausto Carmona (3.28) had a ratio above 3-to-1 among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season.

* It wasn't what they had in mind when refusing to part with young pitching in exchange for Johan Santana this winter, but after placing Phil Hughes on the disabled list last week the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the minors Sunday. Like Hughes, Kennedy has been a mess this season, going 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA while walking 20 batters over 23.2 innings. Unlike Hughes, he doesn't have an injury as a built-in excuse.

There's speculation that manager Joe Girardi wanted to show more patience with Kennedy, but was overruled by the front office. If true that's not a great sign for Girardi or the Yankees, because the likely replacements for Kennedy are Kei Igawa or Jeff Marquez. Igawa was a massive bust last season and Marquez is a 23-year-old mid-level prospect with a career 169-to-78 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 252.2 innings who currently has a 7.47 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A.

* Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list Sunday and lasted just four innings against the Red Sox, allowing four runs while using 90 pitches to record a dozen outs. It clearly wasn't a strong outing, especially considering his 2.66 career ERA against Boston, but Kazmir did strike out five batters and showed good stuff while struggling with command. He'll face the Angels next later this week and it's worth taking the risk of putting him back in your lineup.

* Bronson Arroyo tossed his first Quality Start of the season against the Cardinals on April 28, but wiped away whatever progress he made by turning in the shortest start of his career Sunday. He threw a scoreless first inning, but then got just one out in the second frame while allowing seven runs against the Braves. Arroyo's ERA went from 6.97 to 8.63 with the beating, but his 29-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 32.1 innings suggests that he still has a chance to turn things around.

AL Quick Hits: David Ortiz was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to continued soreness in his right knee ? Roy Halladay's streak of consecutive complete games was snapped at four Sunday, but he beat the White Sox and has gone at least seven innings in every start this season ? After going 2-for-3 in a minor-league rehab game Sunday at Single-A, Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is expected to return from the disabled list Monday ? With Scott Baker (groin) hurting, Kevin Slowey (biceps) will come off the shelf to start Thursday against the White Sox ? John Lackey (triceps) allowed two runs over four innings during a rehab start Sunday at Single-A and remains on track to rejoin the Angels' rotation around mid-May ? With B.J. Ryan unavailable to pitch on a second straight day, Jeremy Accardo started the ninth inning Sunday and Scott Downs got the save by coming in to get A.J. Pierzynski for the final out ? Dontrelle Wills (knee) experienced a setback Friday and his return timetable has been pushed back 10 days ? Carlos Silva's ERA rose from 2.79 to 4.20 after he coughed up eight runs on 11 hits Sunday against the Yankees.

NL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne blew his MLB-leading fifth save Sunday, walking three batters while allowing two runs ? Peter Moylan (elbow) had to end his Saturday throwing session after just seven pitches, suggesting that Tommy John surgery could be on the horizon ? Orlando Hudson (hamstring) walked as a pinch-hitter Sunday and was removed for a pinch-runner, signaling that he's not yet ready to rejoin the lineup ? Chipper Jones went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBIs Sunday, giving him an amazing .425-9-27 line through 28 games ? Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday ? Mike Hampton (pectoral) said Saturday that he considered retiring following his latest setback, but will instead attempt to return at some point next month ? After picking up a victory Sunday night, long-time reliever Todd Wellemeyer is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 76-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 career starts ? Paul Bako came into the year as a career .233 hitter with 15 homers in 2,000 plate appearances, but is now batting .312 with three homers after going deep Sunday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Changes in Detroit

Manager Jim Leyland promised "big changes" following Sunday's loss and the Tigers shifted their lineup around Monday after designating Jacque Jones for assignment. Cutting Jones loose after a couple dozen games would normally be a rash decision, but there's reason to believe that he's in the midst of a serious decline at the age of 33. Beginning in 2000 he averaged 21 homers over a seven-year span, including a career-high 27 long balls in 2006.

However, Jones managed just five homers in 495 plate appearances last season and went deep just once in 90 trips to the plate this year while batting .165. Gary Sheffield replaced Jones in left field Monday and the hope is that playing defense after two years spent primarily at designated hitter can help wake his bat up. Swapping Jones for Sheffield is a downgrade defensively that the Tigers can hardly afford, but it may also open up playing time for Brandon Inge's good glove.

With Sheffield in left field, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen will likely see increased time at DH. When Ordonez starts at DH, Matt Joyce figures to man right field after being called up from Triple-A prior to Monday's game. When Guillen starts at DH, Inge figures to play third base. Inge is more or less a known commodity offensively at this point, offering 20-homer power to go along with a horrible batting average, and while largely unknown Joyce is a relatively similar hitter.

He's a career .275/.350/.446 hitter in four minor-league seasons and was off to a career-best start at Triple-A, but has struck out 154 times in 158 games since advancing to Double-A. Joyce has solid power and plate discipline, but hitting above .250 may be a struggle. There's a pretty good chance that he's really no better than Jones, but as far as making moves just to make moves go this one doesn't have much chance of coming back to bite the Tigers.

While we wonder if Leyland has considered giving a call to the guy who manned left field for him in Pittsburgh two decades ago, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Ervin Santana pitched brilliantly at home and struggled mightily on the road during his first three seasons, consistently turning in a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance despite the lack of an obvious explanation. In 2005 he went 9-3 with a 3.18 ERA at home and 3-5 with a 7.44 ERA on the road. In 2006 he went 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA at home and 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA on the road. And last year he went 6-4 with a 3.27 ERA at home and 1-10 with an 8.38 ERA on the road.

Add it all up and Santana's first three seasons saw him go 25-9 with 3.14 ERA at home compared to 10-21 with a 7.14 ERA on the road, which is one of the most extreme, consistent, and mind-boggling home-road splits that you'll ever see. At one point last season his road struggles got so bad that Santana was yanked from the rotation and sent back to Triple-A, but over the past six weeks he miraculously appears to have conquered his problems away from Anaheim.

Santana began the season with six innings of one-run ball against the Twins, in Minnesota, and has turned in a Quality Start in each of his seven outings regardless of location. He may have officially tossed aside his road issues Monday night, hurling a complete-game shutout against the Royals, in Kansas City. He's now 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA overall, including 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA on the road. Santana faces the Rays in Tampa Bay this weekend and for once it's not a worry.

* Eric Gagne blew his MLB-worst fifth save Sunday, but general manager Doug Melvin gave him a vote of confidence Monday by saying that the Brewers will stick with him as closer. "You stay with a closer as long as you can," Melvin said. "If a hitter slumps for six weeks, you stay with him. Closers go in slumps too. You give him the benefit of the doubt for now." He's right that closers go through slumps just like other players, but Gagne's struggles date back further than six weeks.

Gagne has appeared in a total of 36 games since being traded to the Red Sox last July, posting a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over 33 innings. He has 39 strikeouts during that time, which is at least some reason to think that he hasn't completely lost it, but allowing 41 hits (including five homers) and handing out 19 walks in 158 plate appearances qualifies as a huge mess. He's clearly on very thin ice, with Guillermo Mota or Salomon Torres waiting in the wings.

* Johnny Cueto had the worst start of his young career last week against the Cardinals, allowing seven runs while record just four outs, but bounced back in a big way Monday. Facing the Cubs on six days rest thanks to the Reds pushing his turn in the rotation back, Cueto turned in a Quality Start while racking up eight strikouts. Cueto will go through rough patches, but with a 41-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio through seven career starts he's living up the considerable hype.

AL Quick Hits: B.J. Ryan has been cleared to pitch on back-to-back days and closed out a 1-0 victory Monday ? Josh Hamilton sat out his first game of the year Monday for what manager Ron Washington called a "mental break" ? Eric Chavez (back) said Sunday that he doesn't expect to come off the disabled list when eligible on May 27 ? David Ortiz returned Monday and went 2-for-4 with a homer, but manager Terry Francona indicated that his sore knee will likely continue being an issue ? With a third straight bad outing Monday, Kevin Millwood has seen his ERA rise from 2.53 to 4.94 ? Daisuke Matsuzaka walked eight batters Monday, yet still improved to 5-0 by holding the Tigers to one run over five innings ? Garrett Olson turned in his second straight solid start Monday, totaling seven strikeouts in 6.1 innings of one-run ball to grab hold of a rotation spot until Adam Loewen (elbow) returns ? Joe Crede was scratched from Monday's lineup with a migraine and Pablo Ozuna grounded into a game-ending double play in his place ? Garret Anderson's two-run homer Monday was his first long ball since April 9.

NL Quick Hits: Jimmy Rollins (ankle) went 4-for-4 in an extended spring training game Monday and looks set to come off the disabled list Thursday ? Max Scherzer showed that he's human by struggling Monday against the Phillies and reportedly isn't expected to remain in the rotation once Doug Davis returns from thyroid cancer surgery ? Like his rotation-mate Cueto, Bronson Arroyo allowed seven runs while recording just four outs in a start last week, but is scheduled to be examined by team doctors before his next outing ? Daily Dose favorite Geovany Soto went 3-for-3 with a homer Monday and the rookie catcher is now hitting .352 with 19 extra-base hits and 24 RBIs on the year ? Omar Vizquel (knee) began a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A, going 0-for-2 ? Kip Wells is scheduled to undergo surgery Tuesday to remove blood clots from his pitching hand ? Orlando Hudson returned to the lineup Monday after missing two starts with a strained hamstring.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Floyd's Near No-No

Gavin Floyd came within two outs of a no-hitter Tuesday night against the Twins, but Joe Mauer canceled history with a line drive double past a diving Nick Swisher in left-center field. Mauer also drew a pair of walks versus Floyd while the rest of the Twins' lineup reached base just once in 26 trips to the plate against him. Already at 105 pitches, Floyd was quickly pulled after giving up the double, settling for a victory while allowing just an unearned run over 8.1 innings. newyorkmets.com

Floyd is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA through six starts and the 25-year-old former top prospect has plenty of long-term potential, but there's never been a better time to sell high on him. Lost in the sparkling ERA and near no-hitter is that Floyd sports an ugly 19-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39.2 innings this season. Beyond that, the defense behind Floyd has converted over 85 percent of his balls in play into outs, which isn't close to even being in the realm of sustainable.
atlantabraves.com
He's been nearly impossible to hit thus far and made the undisciplined Twins look especially silly Tuesday, but Floyd's career ERA still stands at 5.61, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 143-to-101 in 218.1 innings, and he's a fly-ball pitcher who calls one of MLB's most power-inflating ballparks home. In other words, he's due to come crashing back down to earth soon enough and if an owner in your league is willing to pay a premium for him before then, you should oblige.

While Floyd lowers his opponent's batting average to a ridiculous .132 and has a jerk columnist advising people to trade him, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Nate McLouth was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season, but he's surpassed my wildest expectations thus far. Moved to the second spot in the Pirates' lineup Tuesday for the first time this season, McLouth went 3-for-5 and notched his second multi-homer game of the year. He hasn't done much running yet after going 22-of-23 swiping bases in a part-time role last year, but has more than made up for it by being an absolute monster at the plate.

He's now batting .333/.417/.652 with nine homers and 13 doubles in 32 games, which is amazing given how little pop he showed while posting a modest .127 Isolated Power during five seasons in the minors. McLouth homered a total of 40 times in over 2,300 trips to the plate in the minors, yet has already gone deep 33 times in fewer than 1,000 plate appearances as a big leaguer. His Isolated Power in the majors is .202, which is 59 percent higher than his minors mark.

* Lance Berkman had a huge game Tuesday, going 5-for-5 with two doubles, two steals, and four runs in a 6-5 win over the Nationals. Not only is Berkman now hitting .353/.428/.731 on the year, he's already swiped a half-dozen bases after failing to crack double-digit steals in any of his first eight seasons. Jose Valverde closed out the one-run lead following Berkman's heroics and has now thrown 10.2 straight scoreless innings after coughing up 11 runs through his first 7.1 frames.

* Jimmy Rollins went 4-for-4 in an extended spring training game Monday and then followed it up by going 2-for-4 with a homer Tuesday, seemingly guaranteeing that he'll come off the disabled list Thursday. There's speculation that the Phillies would like to delay his return for a couple more days, but as Rollins put it: "I have a plane ticket." He hasn't started a game since April 8, but was hitting .308/.341/.513 prior to the injury and looks ready to pick up right where he left off.

* New Reds general manager Walt Jocketty responded that "it's a little bit premature" when asked Tuesday about possibly trading Ken Griffey Jr., but also made it clear that he's open for business. "I've had no trade discussions with him," Jocketty said. "I'm not saying that couldn't happen, but it just hasn't at this point." The Reds hold a $16.5 million option on Griffey for next season or could choose to buy him out for $4 million, so Jocketty may try to cash him in before then.

AL Quick Hits: Victor Martinez is considered day-to-day after sitting out Tuesday's game with a sore neck ? Curt Schilling (biceps) began his comeback by playing catch on flat ground Tuesday and is expected to do the same Thursday ? Manager Joe Girardi announced Tuesday that Kei Igawa will likely be called up from Triple-A to start Friday against the Tigers ? Scott Baker (groin) is headed to the disabled list, with Glen Perkins slated to start in his place this weekend ? With Jason Michaels designated for assignment Tuesday, the Indians will go with Ben Francisco as the new platoon partner for David Dellucci ? Dr. James Andrews found zero structural damage after examining Adam Loewen's elbow Monday, but no timetable has been established for his return ? Wilson Betemit came off the shelf Tuesday after missing three weeks with pink eye and started at third base, pushing Alberto Gonzalez to Triple-A ? According to MLB.com, the Padres and Marlins are interested in Jacque Jones, who was designated for assignment by the Tigers earlier this week.

NL Quick Hits: Chipper Jones smacked his 10th homer Tuesday, going 2-for-2 with two walks to raise his OPS to an amazing 1.220 ? After returning to the lineup Monday, Orlando Hudson sat out Tuesday's game and is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his strained hamstring ? Rafael Furcal was scratched from Tuesday's game with a stiff lower back, giving Chin-Lung Hu a start in his place ? Jonathan Sanchez had a pretty 1.21 ERA over his previous five starts, but was knocked around by the Pirates for seven runs Tuesday ? Jason Schmidt's (shoulder) scheduled simulated game was canceled Tuesday because he was still tired from a 70-pitch bullpen session Friday ? Jair Jurrjens worked at least six innings Tuesday for the sixth straight start, striking out eight while holding the Padres to one run for his fourth victory ? Nick Johnson homered and walked three times in four trips to the plate Tuesday, pushing his on-base percentage to .410 ? Mark Mulder (shoulder) had another ugly minor-league rehab start Monday at Triple-A and looks far from ready to rejoin the Cardinals' rotation.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Candidates to hit .400
It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.

This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events ? a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.
This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?


ACES IN ATLANTA: Reunion of 'greatest rotation of all-time'
CHAT: Ron Shandler answers your questions at 1 p.m. ET

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Chipper Jones | Pat Burrell | Placido Polanco | Ted Williams | Mike Sweeney | Jack Cust
Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events ? a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.
This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?


ACES IN ATLANTA: Reunion of 'greatest rotation of all-time'
CHAT: Ron Shandler answers your questions at 1 p.m. ET

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Chipper Jones | Pat Burrell | Placido Polanco | Ted Williams | Mike Sweeney | Jack Cust
Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events ? a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Value is always relative

With the first month of the season in the books, one of the pieces of advice fantasy owners are always told is they should be selling high on guys who've overachieved in April. That's fine, but what usually isn't included in those statements is whom to acquire in return for those hot starters.

For instance, if you own Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA, 32/2 K/BB ratio), would someone actually give you an ace such as Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander or C.C. Sabathia for him? Probably not. Those owners have made significant investments on those staff anchors, and Lee doesn't have the same track record.

Could you get Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chien-Ming Wang or Scott Kazmir? Doubtful. Lee isn't in their class just yet.

Then again, what if Lee isn't overachieving as much as everyone thinks? He did win 18 games in 2005, and that strikeout-to-walk ratio can't be ignored.

Would you still be "selling high" on Lee if all you can get is Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett? Or could Lee end up being just as good ? or better ? than either one of them this season? Selling high is often easier said than done.

Defining 'value'

Perhaps it's a little easier to compare hitters ? and easier to trade them, too. The biggest problem is trade offers rarely appear to be beneficial to both parties.

If the object is to gain more than you give up, what happens if everyone is using the same source to analyze player values?

Any number of websites that host fantasy leagues will rank players using a formula based on standard scoring categories. Other sites convert player stats to a dollar value that's based on each team's budget. Occasionally, it helps to get a fresh perspective.

Craig Messmer of Bergen County, N.J., was in between jobs when he came up with a new statistic. He was looking for something that measured both run production and efficiency. So he developed "P/E average," which combines runs produced (runs plus RBI minus home runs) and bases advanced (total bases, walks, hit by pitch, net steals). The runs-produced total is multiplied by two to make the two categories relatively equal, and the total is then divided by plate appearances.

The result looks similar to an OPS number (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), but Messmer says it's a better indicator of true offensive production.

In his book, Stat One, Messmer points out that Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz finished with almost identical OPS figures (1.067 to 1.066) last season. But A-Rod's P/E average of 1.415 was much higher than Ortiz's 1.280, partly because he scored 27 more runs and stole 21 more bases.

Messmer says P/E averages can also be applied to fantasy baseball. So I picked out 16 relatively comparable players (all corner infielders or outfielders) who have generally performed above expectations this season to see how they stacked up through May 1.

Both OPS and P/E average have the same four at the top of their rankings, but the P/E average identifies one player in particular, Mark Reynolds, who could be overlooked because of his unremarkable OPS. Looking at Reynolds' dollar value in a standard 13-team, NL-only 5x5 league, the P/E average seems to be more accurate.


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=450 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vaTextBold></TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

R​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

HR​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

RBI​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

SB​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

BA​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

OPS​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

P/E Avg.​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

April R$​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Nate McLouth</TD><TD class=vaText>

24​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

7​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

25​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.330​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.047​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.303​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$39​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Mark Reynolds</TD><TD class=vaText>

23​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

7​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

24​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

3​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.245​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.830​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.295​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$37​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Conor Jackson</TD><TD class=vaText>

24​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

25​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.348​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.060​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.505​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Carlos Quentin</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

7​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.298​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.052​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.375​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Pat Burrell</TD><TD class=vaText>

18​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

8​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

26​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.333​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.131​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.336​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Josh Hamilton</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

32​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.322​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.947​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.215​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$34​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Josh Willingham</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.341​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.043​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.208​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$29​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Casey Kotchman</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

19​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.340​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.980​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.118​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$29​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Emil Brown</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

26​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.292​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.753​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.186​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$27​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Ryan Church</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

3​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

19​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.316​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.855​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.191​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$26​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Eric Hinske</TD><TD class=vaText>

13​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.293​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.038​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.189​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$26​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Raul Ibanez</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

20​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.296​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.826​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.992​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$25​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Rick Ankiel</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.290​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.892​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.071​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$23​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Justin Upton</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.327​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.926​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.000​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$23​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Fred Lewis</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

7​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.337​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.952​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.029​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$22​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Troy Glaus</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.260​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.755​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.974​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$14​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=9> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Besides evaluating potential trade candidates, Messmer says P/E average can be especially helpful in salary-cap leagues when trying to determine the value at each position.

Of course, P/E average only reflects what players have already accomplished. What it doesn't do is project how those players will perform the rest of the way.

For that, we turn to Babson College in Babson Park, Mass., where Elaine Allen teaches a class on data mining. About a year and a half ago, she and her students decided to see whether their studies could be applied to an important real-world topic, fantasy baseball.

Using tools developed by the Spotfire division of Tibco Software, Allen and fellow professor George Recck used 21 statistical categories to determine an index value for each player.

The conclusions were published last April and validated some long-held fantasy axioms. For example, consistency is more desirable than performance spikes. Another is that players who score a lot of runs (even if runs are not a category) help create a balanced and successful fantasy team.

One of the names that kept coming up was particularly painful for the professors, who just happen to be located in the heart of Red Sox Nation.

Derek Jeter.

"I don't like Jeter overall, but he is incredibly consistent in terms of average and what he provides," Recck admits. "He is almost money in the bank."

However, one of the surprising aspects of the research was a connection between some relatively minor statistics and a player's overall value.

"Walks, doubles, caught stealing and strikeouts had a statistically significant (positive) impact on the index," Allen says.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=450 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vaTextBold></TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

R​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

CS​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

2B​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

BB​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

K​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

BA​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

SLUG​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

OPS​

</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>

R$​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Nate McLouth</TD><TD class=vaText>

24​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

3​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

12​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.330​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.553​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.047​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$39​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Mark Reynolds</TD><TD class=vaText>

23​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

13​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

38​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.245​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.438​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.830​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$37​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Conor Jackson</TD><TD class=vaText>

24​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

10​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

8​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.348​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.542​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.060​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Carlos Quentin</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.298​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.500​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.052​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Pat Burrell</TD><TD class=vaText>

18​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

22​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

20​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.333​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.546​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.131​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$35​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Josh Hamilton</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

10​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

11​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.322​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.504​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.947​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$34​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Josh Willingham</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.341​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.574​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.043​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$29​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Casey Kotchman</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.340​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.527​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.980​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$29​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Emil Brown</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

10​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.292​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.407​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.753​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$27​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Ryan Church</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

4​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

10​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

22​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.316​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.418​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.855​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$26​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Eric Hinske</TD><TD class=vaText>

13​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

12​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.293​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.522​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1.038​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$26​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Raul Ibanez</TD><TD class=vaText>

16​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

1​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

5​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

15​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.296​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.441​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.826​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$25​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Rick Ankiel</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

8​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

13​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

20​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.290​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.460​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.892​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$23​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Justin Upton</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

6​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

26​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.327​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.496​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.926​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$23​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Fred Lewis</TD><TD class=vaText>

17​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

2​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

8​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

13​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

20​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.337​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.467​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.952​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$22​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Troy Glaus</TD><TD class=vaText>

9​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

0​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

12​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

14​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

21​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.260​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.353​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

.755​

</TD><TD class=vaText>

$14​

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=10> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>So could that mean Nate McLouth's breakout just might be legitimate? He's among the NL leaders in doubles and runs scored, plus his walk total has him among the league leaders in on-base percentage.

Or what about Troy Glaus? He strikes out a lot and has only one homer, but he is one of the NL leaders in doubles. Could those doubles possibly turn into home runs as the season progresses?

The advanced research says yes.

What next?

Accumulating information usually isn't a problem in fantasy baseball. Figuring out what to do with it is the tricky part. That's where things such as P/E average and data-mining research come in to play.

They're all part of the ongoing quest for that extra edge.

Perhaps that one extra bit of information could be the difference between a solid season and a championship.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

The New Mariners in Town

The Mariners are in panic mode. The front office clearly thought their 88-74 campaign last season wasn't a fluke, as they traded away plenty of young talent for 2009 free-agent-to-be Erik Bedard. Many fans were roped in too when they saw an 88-win team add an ace-quality pitcher, but the Mariner's 79-83 Pythagorean record from 2007 told a much more realistic story. That they're now 14-19 and 6 ? games out of first place seems about right for a team of this talent, but that clearly isn't what baseball operations told management when they mortgaged the future for Bedard.

Now, general manager Bill Bavasi and company are fighting for their jobs. Bavasi took over in the winter of 2003 and has overseen the Mariners through three losing seasons and they're fluky strong 2007 campaign. Perhaps that wouldn't be so bad considering how poor the team was when he took over, but Bavasi has been given one of the league's highest payrolls to work with and he's made plenty of terrible trades and signings during his tenure. He was considered on the hot seat before the 2007 season, and he won't be with the Mariners in 2009 if they continue to struggle.

So now, the Mariners have to overreact to any situation that might provide an upgrade. They started by eating Brad Wilkerson's $3 million salary this week after watching him play for just five weeks. The club also called up prized prospects Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien, but delaying these callups a week could have resulted in the Mariners controlling their rights through 2013 instead of 2012. And so sets the tone for the rest of the season. If Balentien and Clement aren't producing relatively soon, they'll quickly get shuttled back to the minors for other options. It seems almost too easy to predict a desperation trade at the deadline that involves the Mariners giving up too much young talent. It's something to keep in mind when bidding on Clement and Balentien this week, and in other situations through the remainder of the season.

[SIZE=+1]Major League Callups[/SIZE]

Nick Adenhart ? RHP Angels ? Adenhart has seemingly been an atypical prospect his whole career. A surefire first rounder the spring before the 2004 draft, Adenhart threw out his elbow and eventually had Tommy John surgery one week after being selected in the 14th round by the Angels. Adenhart had a scholarship to North Carolina, but he turned it down for a $710,000 bonus and began the process of rehabbing. Adenhart returned late in the 2005 season and had a promising debut over 50 innings in Rookie ball. However, he broke out for Single-A Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old in 2006, and also looked good after a late season promotion to High-A Rancho Cucamonga.

At this point, Adenhart was a fun story and looked like the Tommy John surgery wouldn't cost him a beat in reaching his previous top prospect billing. However, his 2007 season forced us to reevaluate the right-hander again. Adenhart was plenty young for Double-A at age 20, but his 116/65 K/BB ratio in 153 innings left much to be desired. Adenhart's 3.65 ERA was a little better, in part because he allowed just seven homers, a theme that's been consistent throughout his minor league career.

Did Adenhart not have the stuff to retire more advanced hitters, or was he simply adjusting to a high level of competition at a very young age? Time will tell for sure, but I lean towards the former. Adenhart sits in the low-90s with his two-seamer, and can still touch 94 or 95 MPH when necessary. Neither his changeup or curveball is an elite pitch, but both are plus offerings and his changeup especially gets plenty of swings and misses. More consistent command and a better approach will be necessary for him to continue succeeding, but since the stuff is there his poor peripherals can be forgiven.

Adenhart was off to a similar start in Triple-A this season, posting a poor 19/15 K/BB ratio but a very impressive 0.87 ERA in 31 innings. That he had yet to give up a homer can be attributed to all of the downward movement on his pitches, but the 18 hits Adenhart allowed involved a bit of luck. Now up with the Angels, Adenhart was rocked for five runs in just two-plus innings in his big league debut, walking five and striking out none. His second start also wasn't much better, as Adenhart walked five, struck out three, and gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings. Given his peripherals, this shouldn't be all that surprising. Adenhart still needs to better harness his stuff and improve his command, but since he's just 21 years old his future remains very bright. The key here will be to remain patient despite some bumps in the road, and to keep expectations low for the short-term.

Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only formats; stash away in keeper leagues.

Wladimir Balentien ? OF Mariners ? As discussed above, Balentien is taking Brad Wilkerson's roster spot and playing time in right field. Indeed, the Mariners have started Balentien in each game since being promoted, and he's gone 7-for-25 with a double, two homers, and eight strikeouts during that stint. And that's just about what we should expect from Balentien given his history.

A big, 6'2", 220-pound right-hander, Balentien has always been known for his big hacks and in-game home run power. He's smacked at least 22 homers in each of the last three seasons in the minors, though that's come with 505 strikeouts in 1,413 at-bats. However, Balentien seemed to make improvements while cutting his strikeouts from 140 to 105 in more at-bats last season, and he gained plenty of buzz with a strong first half before fading down the stretch. When he's on, Balentien is one of the most feared hitters in the minors. Greater consistency in pitch selection is all that separates him from being a real force, as he certainly has the swing and physical ability to be a 30-plus homer threat in the majors.

Balentien can't be counted on to hit better than .270, but he should be a source of at least 15 home runs from here on out. 20 or more is a possibility if he gets hot, but that should be considered his upside given the 23-year-old's need for more refinement. That Balentien has thrown in 29 steals over the last two years gives him a little more value in fantasy leagues, as 10 steals the rest of the way can't be ruled out. Since there's nothing stopping him from taking the right field job and running with it for the rest of the year, Balentien is worth pursuing more aggressively than some more polished products who don't have a strong hold on a starting gig.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only one-year and keeper leagues; monitor in deep keeper mixed leagues.

Brett Carroll ? OF Marlins ? One of, if not the, minor's hottest hitters, Carroll gets the call after hitting .418/.480/.896 with nine homers and an 18/8 K/BB in 67 at-bats for Triple-A Albuquerque. Carroll spent 10 days on the big league roster to start the season and also was given some at-bats as a bench player for the Marlins last season. He was a combined 10-for-57 in the two stints in the majors, but it's hard to get on him for poor production while playing so sporadically.

Carroll was a productive college player for Middle Tennessee State University, but he struggled in the minors prior to his breakout 2007 season. Most of that breakout was spent at Albuquerque, where Carroll hit .314/.361/.597 in 318 at-bats. However, expectations need to be tempered some, as Albuquerque is a very favorable park for hitters and Carroll has shown big home-road splits over the last two years. Still, his current hot streak is much more than a park-inflated mirage, and the Marlins may give the right-hander a few starts against southpaws while he's back in the majors. It will likely take continued playing time for him to remain in a groove, but he's intriguing enough to watch.

Recommendation: Monitor in one-year NL-only leagues.

Jeff Clement ? C Mariners ? One of the best high school catching prospects in the 2002 draft, Clement had a strong commitment to USC and thus slipped to the 12th round before going unsigned. Clement made clubs immediately regret not giving him a huge bonus offer when he smacked 21 home runs as a freshman for USC. The left-handed hitter wasn't quite as good the next season, but Clement had his best overall season as a Junior with a .348/.472/.617 line that included more walks than strikeouts. That he hit just 15 homers was somewhat disappointing given his freshman season and light-tower power in batting practice, but he did hit 17 doubles and his plate discipline was much better.

The third overall pick in the 2005 draft, Clement had a strong debut in Single-A and was jumped to Double-A San Antonio to start the 2006 campaign. However, he suffered a knee injury early in the season that required surgery and missed six weeks, then was assigned to Triple-A Tacoma after returning. Clement struggled mightily, posting an ugly 668 OPS and striking out more frequently than before. It's quite likely that the knee, or his elbow after having a bone chip removed from it during the same procedure, was bothering him. Not surprisingly, Clement bounced back by posting a .275/.370/.497 line with an 88/61 K/BB in 455 at-bats with Tacoma in 2007. A late season promotion to the Mariners also went well, setting Clement up for a big 2008 campaign.

The now 24-year-old Clement was once again back in Tacoma at the start of the year, and he was having his best season to date with a .397 batting average, five homers, eight doubles, and an amazing 22/12 K/BB in 78 at-bats. Clement hasn't been as dominating prior to this season in the minors, but he has the physical tools, swing, raw power, and plate discipline to be an elite hitter at the catching position. He'd be far from the first catcher to fully develop late offensively while working on their defense, so I'm expecting Clement to post even better numbers in the majors than he did in the minors prior to this year. And now with Kenji Johjima locked up for three more years as the starting catcher, Clement's offensive maturation may accelerate since he'll be primarily a designated hitter and only a part-time catcher.

I'd be surprised if Clement isn't the league's best offensive catcher at some point in the next six years, so he's worth pursuing very aggressively in all leagues. Those in one-year leagues should also pursue him, as he's taking over for Jose Vidro at DH against right-handers. He hasn't done so well by going 3-for-20 with no extra-base hits and a 9/3 K/BB mark so far, but patience will be rewarded here, assuming the Mariners are willing to continue playing him.

Recommendation: Pursue aggressively in keeper leagues, AL-only leagues, and two-catcher mixed leagues.

Sean Gallagher ? RHP Cubs ? One of the more underrated pitching prospects around, Gallagher doesn't get much press despite an impressive resume. A 12th round pick in the 2004 draft, Gallagher looked strong for Single-A Peoria the following season with a 2.71 ERA and 139/55 K/BB mark. Bumped up to High-A as a 20-year-old to start the 2006 season, Gallagher continued pitching well with a fantastic 80/21 K/BB and 2.30 ERA in 78 1/3 innings. The right-hander continued to strike batters out and limit runs once moving to Double-A mid-season, but his walk rate jumped all the way up to 55 in 86 1/3 innings. Still, Gallagher was one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A and still was preventing runs, making him an intriguing prospect.

Gallagher was back at Double-A to begin last season, though he was promoted to Triple-A mid-season. Combined he posted a 3.10 ERA and 91/37 K/BB ratio in 101 2/3 innings. He also made eight relief appearances in the majors and was hit hard for an 8.59 ERA while struggling with his command. However, most of those struggles can be forgiven, as they came over four different stints with the Cubs as they continuously yanked him between a minor league rotation and big league bullpen. Back at Triple-A Iowa to start the season, Gallagher had a 3.10 ERA and 30/9 K/BB mark in 29 innings of work.

Gallagher is back in the majors to work out of the bullpen, despite his failures there last year. He's probably the Cubs fifth or sixth best starter, but he's still not close to being considered for a role. Kevin Hart's struggles and Sean Marshall's injury help, but the Cubs wouldn't be using Gallagher out of the pen if he was really next in line. That said, with his low-90s fastball, excellent curve, and serviceable changeup, he has the arsenal to be a long-term No. 3 starter who eats up plenty of above average innings. One can hope his talent will win out eventually, so Gallagher needs to be stashed away in NL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Stash away in NL-only formats.

A.J. Murray ? LHP Rangers ? With Jason Jennings getting sent to the disabled list without a timetable for return, the Rangers appear to have an opening in the rotation that will last more than a few weeks. Murray will be the choice for now, and he looked capable enough while holding the Athletics to three runs ? two earned ? in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut. A 19th round pick way back in 2000, Murray has battled shoulder injuries throughout his career, including missing all of the 2004 and 2006 seasons. He's generally shown above average strikeout rates when healthy, but his command is poor, he's already 26 years old, and his fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. His changeup and off-speed pitch could fool enough hitters the first time through and he does get the Mariners in each of his next two starts, but he's still not a recommended option in the short or long-term.

Recommendation: Ignore in AL-only formats.

Darrell Rasner ? RHP Yankees ? Rasner just missed qualifying as a prospect when he was promoted last week, but he's close enough and intriguing enough to take a look at. A 2002 second-round selection by the Expos, the Nationals left Rasner exposed on waivers in February 2006 despite good command and a lively sinker. The Yankees claimed him for free and then used him at a variety of levels that season. He was particularly impressive in 10 starts for Triple-A Columbus as a 25-year-old, posting a 2.76 ERA and 47/11 K/BB mark in 58 2/3 innings. Rasner also didn't look overwhelmed in brief trials in the majors, so he was a candidate for extended time in the majors in 2007.

Indeed, Rasner was awarded a rotation spot last spring when injuries struck, and he made three solid starts for the Yankees before being sent to the minors. Back in the majors in just a few weeks, Rasner made three more appearances before being hit on the finger with a comebacker. The finger turned out to be fractured and required surgery, effectively ending Rasner's season. Back in Triple-A to start the 2008 campaign, Rasner had a 0.87 ERA and 27/6 K/BB mark in 31 innings before his callup. In his season debut on Sunday, Rasner limited the Mariners to two runs in six innings while striking out four and walking none.

Rasner is your typical finesse right-hander, getting by with his sinking high-80s fastball and a variety of solid yet unexciting secondary offerings. He'll need to continue hitting his spots and limiting long balls, and if he does he could be a solid enough 4th starter for the Yankees. The run support he'll be afforded makes him a better option in fantasy leagues, and his lack of strikeouts means he's a better 4x4 option. Rasner will likely remain in the rotation until after the All-Star break, when Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and perhaps Ian Kennedy will all be options to replace Rasner and fellow fill-in Kei Igawa. Since he's likely good for a few wins while starting for two months, he's worth throwing a few dollars at in AL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

GoGo Cycle
One night after Joe Mauer's double with one out in the ninth inning saved Minnesota from being no-hit, the same offense that ranked as the league's second-worst erupted for 13 runs on 16 hits Wednesday against Mark Buehrle, who had been 20-10 with a 3.69 ERA versus the Twins. As if that weren't enough, Carlos Gomez hit for the Twins' first cycle since Kirby Puckett in 1986, Nick Punto collected five RBIs, and Livan Hernandez took a shutout into the ninth inning.

And people wonder why I love baseball so much.

Gomez was hitting just .230/.247/.310 prior to being benched for one game on April 23. In eight games since then he's gone 13-for-30 (.433) with two homers, five total extra-base hits, and four steals. He's now up to .282/.306/.427 in 28 games overall, which along with going 13-for-14 swiping bases and playing excellent defense in center field is enough to make up for a hideous 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Flaws and all, Gomez is on track to hit .280 with 60 total extra-base hits, 105 runs, and 70 steals as a 22-year-old, although keeping up that pace will be nearly impossible if he ends up with 160 strikeouts and only 15 walks. Of late Gomez has looked like he might be just a modicum of plate discipline away from emerging as one of baseball's better all-around center fielders in his first full season, although the Twins aren't exactly known for teaching young hitters how to show patience.

While Gomez somehow manages to overshadow both a five-RBI performance from Punto and Hernandez improving to 5-1, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Cliff Lee and Chien-Ming Wang squared off Wednesday in a matchup of unbeaten pitchers, with Lee winning the battle by shutting out the Yankees for seven innings. He's now 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA, which is absolutely astonishing given that he was demoted to the minors last season after posting a 6.43 ERA in Cleveland and came into this year with a 4.64 ERA in 125 career starts. It's natural to remain somewhat skeptical of Lee's amazing start, but don't write it off as a fluke.

Lee has made some significant adjustments, beginning with using his fastball about 15 percent more often. He's also cut way down on changeups, particularly against left-handed hitters, who knocked him around to the tune of .327/.385/.533 last year despite Lee being a southpaw. Beyond that, his excellent 39-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests that he's far less likely to see his luck run out than, say, Gavin Floyd. In other words, his deal with the devil may last for a while.

* Chris Iannetta disappointed a ton of fantasy owners last year, but remained one of my favorite sleeper picks this year based on his excellent minor-league track record. In my column about NL-only hitting sleepers back in February, the section about Iannetta advised that he "could still move past Yorvit Torrealba and make a big impact" and continued to possess "strong long-term upside if he gets on track." Sure enough, that's exactly what's happened.

Iannetta was seemingly facing an uphill battle to get another shot as the Rockies' starter behind the plate once Torrealba signed a multi-year deal this winter, but hitting .350 can change an awful lot. He started over Torrealba for the fourth straight game Wednesday, knocking in two runs with a game-winning triple. Iannetta is up to .353/.414/.686 in 58 trips to the plate, which shows why 200 games in the minors should be trusted over 50 games in the majors. He's for real.

* Wednesday saw the Braves' bullpen get hit by a slew of elbow-related bad news, including the announcement that Peter Moylan will have season-ending Tommy John surgery. Beyond that, Rafael Soriano had to cut his throwing session short due to elbow soreness and Mike Gonzalez's comeback from Tommy John surgery of his own hit a snag. Soriano and Gonzalez may still be back within weeks, but for now Manny Acosta's ninth-inning duties are looking pretty secure.

* Manager Dusty Baker surprisingly handed rookie Joey Votto the starting job at first base early this season and then surprisingly stuck with him recently despite a two-week homerless stretch. Votto broke out of that slump in a big way Wednesday, going deep three times as the Reds hit a total of seven long balls in a blowout win over the Cubs. Votto is now batting .302/.362/.583 with seven homers through 32 games, so Scott Hatteberg should get comfortable on the bench.

* While the Reds' lineup was going nuts, Edinson Volquez had 10 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, slicing his NL-leading ERA to 1.06. Baker allowing the 24-year-old right-hander to throw 118 pitches in a game that was out of reach by the fifth inning is questionable and worth watching going forward given his track record of overworking young starters. Volquez has now cracked the 100-pitch barrier in five straight starts, including two outings of 110-plus pitches.

AL Quick Hits: Shaun Marcum was one out from a complete-game shutout Wednesday against the Rays, but B.J. Upton ruined things with a two-run double ? Rich Harden (shoulder) is set to return from the disabled list Sunday versus the Rangers, with Chad Gaudin shifting to the bullpen to make room in the rotation ? Mariners fans had the indignity of watching Miguel Cairo start at first base Wednesday when Richie Sexson was a late scratch because of what the team called a family issue ? Brandon Inge said Tuesday that he's willing to catch when needed and would be open to becoming the Tigers' starter next season if Ivan Rodriguez isn't re-signed ? Michael Young left Wednesday's game in the first inning with a hip injury and Ramon Vazquez replaced him at shortstop ? Placido Polanco was hitting .140 through April 24, but after collecting five hits Wednesday he's 22-for-54 (.407) since ? With Jeff Mathis sitting in the midst of a 4-for-32 slump, Mike Napoli started Wednesday and went 3-for-4 with a homer ? John Patterson had a setback at extended spring training and has been shut down because of continued forearm soreness.

NL Quick Hits: Adam Wainwright tossed seven shutout innings Wednesday versus the Rockies, but got stuck with a no-decision when the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead ? Ryan Church went 3-for-4 with a homer Wednesday and is hitting .328 with 24 RBIs and 27 runs through 31 games ? Mike Jacobs exited Wednesday's game due to a quadriceps injury, with Wes Helms replacing him at first base ? Mark Mulder has been shut down on his minor-league rehab assignment because of a strained rotator cuff, making it even less likely that he'll have an impact this season ? Manager Manny Acta announced Wednesday that Mike O'Connor will replace Matt Chico in the rotation beginning Saturday against the Marlins ? Jack Wilson (calf) has experienced a setback in his recovery and is now expected to miss at least two more weeks ? Making his first start since rejoining the rotation in place of Yovani Gallardo (knee), Dave Bush allowed six runs Wednesday against the Marlins ? Ryan Ludwick went 2-for-4 with a homer Wednesday and is now hitting .356/.424/.701 on the year.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

A new Rocky Mountain Way

It's been a tough week to be an imaginary creature in the major leagues. First, the White Sox violated some blow-up dolls with baseball bats, and then Mr. Redlegs was decapitated in a tragic accident before the Reds game on Wednesday. There's a trifecta in play here, and Dinger the dinosaur might want to watch his back.

Here are this week's waiver options:

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

Chris Iannetta ? C ? COL - Iannetta has now started over Yorvit Torrealba in four consecutive games, and has driven in six runs while doing so. His current .353 batting average is bring propped up by an astronomically high BABIP, but there's a definite track record this sort of success: Iannetta hit .303/.409/.509 in 803 minor league at-bats. Don't expect a ton of home runs, but Iannetta should be a solid fantasy contributor for as long as he sees the majority of playing time in Colorado. Don't be scared by the fact that he's not starting on Thursday: it's a day game after a night game on a getaway day.
Mixed Leagues: Use while hot. NL-only Leagues: Should be owned.

Jo-Jo Reyes ? SP - ATL - In his first game filling in for John Smoltz, Jo-Jo Reyes allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings. He walked three in the appearance, but he also struck out five. Reyes will be making his second start against the Padres this afternoon, and a solid performance could make his spot in the rotation more permanent. That being said, he'll face Philadelphia, Oakland and Arizon in his next three starts, so he's probably best used in NL-only leagues for the time being. atlantabraves.com
Mixed Leagues:Worth a flier. NL-only Leagues: Worth using.

Ryan Ludwick ? OF ? STL - Ludwick was a top center field prospect before fracturing his hip in 2002, but he didn't show much life until hitting .267-14-52 in 303 at-bats last season. Ludwick is off to an even better start this year, with a .356 average and five home runs in just 87 at-bats. He's part of a deep outfield and will spend his fair share of time on the bench, but he's also one of the better pinch-hitters in the game. He's also shown that he hits righties just as well as he does lefties, so it's quite possible the Cardinals will finally start giving him more regular starts.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Worth owning.

Homer Bailey ? SP ? CIN - Matt Belisle hasn't been impressive since getting called up from Triple-A, but Homer Bailey hasn't capitalized on the situation by allowing 11 earned runs in his last 20 innings of work. Still, it's starting to be pretty clear that Belisle isn't a worthy long-term investment, and Bailey is still sporting a 2.72 ERA at Triple-A. Bailey remains one of the top prospects in the game, and could be a valuable fantasy contributor once he gets another chance.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Take a flier.

Manny Parra ? SP ? MIL - Parra has plenty of potential, but so far this season he's letting way too many people on base. Parras has given up 38 hits and walked 17 in just 27 2/3 innings. Still, Parra proved he has the skills to succeed in this league last year, and should turn it around at some point. He's not worth owning until he proves he can improve his control, and he only has a couple weeks to do that before facing the possibility of demotion. He makes for a fun gamble.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Stash him.

Blake DeWitt ? 3B ? LAD - Since being recalled after a one-game stint in the minors, DeWitt is hitting .383 with 13 RBI in 34 at-bats. DeWitt also has two home runs, but one was a bit of a fluke inside-the-parker. Still, Joe Torre has backed off earlier statements that Nomar would get his job back once he comes off the DL, and DeWitt's production seems to be keeping Andy LaRoche in the minor leagues for now. LaRoche has been hitting well at Triple-A, though, and will likely replace DeWitt once the current hot streak comes to an end. Long-term, Adam LaRoche is the better investment.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Use while hot.

Brett Carroll ? OF ? Marlins ? Carroll was hitting .418 with nine home runs and 23 RBI in just 67 at-bats for Triple-A Albuquerque. Granted, Albuquerque is a nice place to hit, but Carroll was still doing plenty of damage on the road. In Florida, Carroll will provide depth in the outfield while Josh Willingham is on the disabled list. He'll serve primarily as a pinch-hitter, but could get a couple starts against lefties. If he can get on a hot streak, he has a chance to stick in the majors.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Monitor.

Mike O'Connor ? SP ? WAS - O'Connor missed most of last season with an elbow injury, but had posted a 1.96 ERA in four Triple-A starts before getting called up to the Nationals in late April. In the big leagues, he's sporting a 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, with most of the damage coming against the Pirates. He'll replace Matt Chico in the Nationals' lineup, but just because Manny Acta is going to use him doesn't mean you should.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. NL-only Leagues: Stay Away.
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[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

Garrett Olson - SP ? BAL - Olsen has made two impressive starts for the Orioles, and will stick in the starting rotation at least until Adam Loewen returns, which might not be for another month and a half. He's not the flashiest prospect, but he has compiled a 2.95 ERA and a 145-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 152.1 innings at Triple-A. In his two starts for the Orioles he's tallied a 2.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, but ultimately he figures to be a middle-of-the-rotation type starter. His next two starts are against the Royals and the Nationals, so there's no harm grabbing him and seeing if he can stay effective.
Mixed Leagues: Flier material. AL-only: Worth owning.

Santiago Casilla ? RP ? OAK - Through 17 1/3 innings, Santiago Casilla has 21 strikeouts and just three walks. He hasn't allowed a run and has given up just nine hits in that same period. Casilla would be a candidate for saves if something ever happened to Huston Street (injury or trade), but he should put up solid ratios and tally plenty of strikeouts in the meantime.
Mixed Leagues: Worth Consideration. AL-only: Worth owning.

David DeJesus ? OF ? KC - DeJesus has finally managed to stay healthy enough to string together a few games. When he has been in the lineup, he's has been solid, hitting in 13 of the 16 games in which he's played. He should score close to 100 runs sitting atop the Royals lineup, and his average should also bounce back from the disappointing .260 he posted in 2007.
Mixed Leagues: Fourth outfielder. AL-only: Worth owning.

Darrell Rasner ? SP ? NYY - Rasner had a 0.87 ERA and 27/6 K/BB mark in 31 minor league innings before limiting the Mariners to two runs in six on Sunday. Still, he's a finesse pitcher who could be bombed if his control is off. He shouldn't be relied on against better offenses, but he should be able to accumulate some wins while pitching for the Yankees. Don't start him against the Tigers on Saturday.
Mixed Leagues: Streaming candidate. AL-only: Worth owning.

Jack Cust ? OF ? OAK - Over the course of the season, Cust is a borderline fantasy option. He often sits against lefties, but his average still leaves plenty to be desired. He's a streaky hitter who tends to hit homers in bursts, though, and when he's hot he makes a solid option in the outfield. He's worth using until he cools off again.
Mixed Leagues: Worth consideration. AL-only: Worth owning.

Vicente Padilla ? SP ? TEX - Padilla has gotten off to a great start and threw seven shutout innings against the Mariners on Wednesday night. He has a stellar 3.02 ERA, but his 33/18 K/BB ratio doesn't support that he'll be able to maintain this pace. He hasn't finished with an ERA under since 2003, and has proven incredibly inconsistent during his time in the majors. Eventually he'll string together enough bad outings to counteract this recent upswing. You don't want him on your roster when that happens.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor him. AL-only: Play him while he's hot.

Matt Joyce ? OF ? DET - The Tigers promoted Matt Joyce to take the roster spot of the demoted Jacque Jones, and Joyce figures to see significant playing time in right field. He doesn't hit for much average, but he has decent pop and will be hit seventh in a stacked Detroit offense. The Tigers have a very flexible lineup, though, so Joyce's playing time will depend on his production. He's 2-for-7 with a run and an RBI through two games.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only Leagues: Monitor him.

Brandon Boggs ? OF ? TEX - Brandon Boggs went 4-for-6 with a homer in his first two games after being called up. Since then, he's found a consistent place in the Rangers' everyday lineup and has turned it into a .323/.353/.516 line. In 32 at-bats, he's struck out twelve times while walking just twice. Boggs is part of a crowded outfield and is no lock to stay with the team once Marlon Byrd is healthy, making him a poor investment at this time.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only: Monitor him.

Ben Francisco ? OF ? CLE - The Indians designated Jason Michaels for assignment and recalled outfielder Ben Francisco to take his roster space. Francisco figures to work in a platoon with David Dellucci, getting at-bats against left-handed pitchers. The part-time schedule won't merit an addition to anything but deeper AL-only squads.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only: Monitor him.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Can call-ups contribute?
When right-hander Nick Adenhart made his major league debut May 1, he was the latest in a series of high-profile call-ups that occurred over the past few weeks.

Adenhart came into this season as the Los Angeles Angels' No. 2 prospect, as ranked by Deric McKamey in Minor League Baseball Analyst. The team's No. 1 prospect, infielder [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL], had also gotten the call.

Joining them in the majors last week were the Seattle Mariners' No. 2 prospect, catcher Jeff Clement, as well as their No. 5, outfielder Wladimir Balentien. And the Arizona Diamondbacks' top minor leaguer, right-hander Max Scherzer, also made his debut last week.

Has there ever been such a succession of top prospects seeing their first major league action in a short period of time in the middle of the season?

Actually, the phenomenon is not unusual at all. Within a three-week period last spring, an even higher-profile group made their major league debuts: Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (No. 2 prospect), New York Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes (No. 1), San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum (No. 1), Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence (No. 1) and then-Atlanta Braves catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (No. 2). Within two weeks after that, the Milwaukee Brewers' No. 2 prospect, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL], joined the group.

Late April and early May is a prime time for these types of advancements. Teams have gotten about a month to assess what their roster looks like and can analyze what holes might need to be filled because of injury or under-performance. Going back even further, 2006 saw teams call up top prospects Jonathan Broxton, Rich Hill, Howie Kendrick and Dustin McGowan. In 2005, it was Scott Baker, Ryan Howard and Chien-Ming Wang getting their first major league starts.

However, what is important to note in all this is that we only tend to see and remember the success stories. Scherzer made a memorable debut ? striking out seven in 4 1/3 scoreless innings ? which might be the springboard to a productive career. Adenhart did not fare as well (five runs, five walks in two innings), and if he continues to struggle, he might buy himself a ticket back to Class AAA Salt Lake.

Similarly, we forget that also among last year's high-profile spring call-ups were New York Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez (ranked No. 4) and Diamondbacks right-hander Dustin Nippert (No. 4). Their major league stays were short. And so there are no guarantees that the Clements and the Balentiens are going to stick. Even Hill, two years into his major league career, was not immune, getting sent down by the Chicago Cubs this week to work on his control.

The business of differentiating between future stars and also-rans is complicated. Michael Lewis' Moneyball highlighted the methodologies of "pure scouting" and "statistical analysis." While these two schools of thought have had a bit of an adversarial relationship in the past, recent articles have shown that an integrated approach is necessary to maximize success.

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James introduced the process of "major league equivalencies" (MLE). This calculates how a minor leaguer's statistics might look in the major leagues, based on conversion formulas for level of competition, park effects and age. MLE formulas provide insight into the potential for young players, often providing revealing clues that early major league performance does not.

For instance, Dan Uggla boasted a .282 batting average in his rookie season of 2006. However, his MLE showed the skills of a .250 hitter, which is how he has batted ever since. Of course, players do develop as they get older, so MLE are not infallible. Had the Boston Red Sox known how Hanley Ramirez would develop, they might have had second thoughts about dealing him to the Florida Marlins as part of the deal for right-hander Josh Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell. Ramirez's MLE provided absolutely no clue as to the hitter he would become.

Still, MLE remains one of many useful tools in evaluating prospects. Here is how the recent call-up surge shapes up through the MLE lens:

* Nick Adenhart: The Angels rookie was 10-8 with a 3.65 ERA at Class AA Arkansas last year and struck out 6.8 batters per nine innings. This was a remarkable performance for a 21-year-old. The major league equivalent of that performance is a 4.59 ERA and a 5.8 K/9 rate. These are still serviceable numbers for a player this young.

His early 2008 stats at Class AAA have been outwardly impressive ? 4-0, 0.87 ERA in 31 innings ? however, his 15 walks raise a red flag.

* Wladimir Balentien: The 23-year-old Mariners slugger made his debut last year, going 2-for-3 with a home run in three games. He should stick around longer this time.

Balentien batted .291 for Class AAA Tacoma (Wash.) in 2007 with 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases. MLE converts those stats to a .256 average, 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. While those might seem like middling numbers, they represent significant growth from previous seasons. Balentien was an undisciplined free swinger who has cut down on his strikeouts. For comparison's sake, his 2006 MLE batting average was .216.

Thus far in 2008, he batted only .254 with six home runs in Tacoma, so the ride might be a bit bumpy in the early going.

* Jeff Clement: The 23-year-old Mariners catcher had a 16-at-bat cup of coffee last year, batting .375 with two home runs. That was coming off a 20-homer, .275 season at Tacoma.

MLE brings those numbers down to 16 home runs and a .236 average, which would ordinarily temper our expectations a bit. However, he was raking the ball at Class AAA prior to his call-up, batting .397 (MLE .347) with five home runs in 75 at-bats. Defense has always been an issue, but there will be little question about his bat.

* Max Scherzer: The hard-throwing 23-year-old had a magnificent major league debut after posting a 1.17 ERA in 27 innings this spring at Class AAA Tucson. More notable about that performance was the 38 strikeouts and only three walks, however, his previous history was not always as eye-popping.

At Class AA Mobile (Ala.) last year, Scherzer was 4-4 with a 3.93 ERA, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 73 innings. That MLE converts to an unimpressive 5.20 ERA, 5.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. Before that stop, he pitched 17 innings at Class A Visalia (Calif.) with a 0.53 ERA. He has managed superb numbers in short spurts, which could mean his future will be in the bullpen.

* [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL]: The 23-year-old Angels infielder is one of the top power-hitting prospects in baseball, but his ascent to the majors has not been as fast as scouts had anticipated.

Wood batted .276 with 25 home runs in 2006 at Class AA Arkansas (MLE .236 with 18 homers) and followed up last year batting a similar .272 with 23 home runs at Class AAA Salt Lake (MLE .254 with 20 homers). This spring, he batted .273 with eight home runs in 88 at-bats at Salt Lake. The growth is slow, but the potential remains.

Perhaps there is a more important point to remember when evaluating the potential of rising minor leaguers. How any individual player will perform relative to his talent is largely unknown because there is a psychological element that is vastly unexplored. Some players make the transition to the majors seamlessly, some not, completely regardless of how talented they are. Never forget Rick Ankiel.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Webb Surfs to 8-0 Start

Brandon Webb tossed a complete-game Thursday, beating the Phillies to become the first NL pitcher to win his first eight starts of the season since Pedro Martinez did it for the Expos in 1997. Martinez went on to finish 17-8 with a 1.90 ERA and 305 strikeouts that year on his way to the NL Cy Young, which Webb captured in 2006. He tired some in the ninth inning, giving up a pair of runs, but was allowed to finish the game thanks to a low pitch count and good run support.

He got 18 ground-ball outs and four strikeouts, issuing zero walks while slicing his ERA to 2.41. Meanwhile, hours before he took the mound Thursday afternoon the Arizona Republic reported that Webb and the Diamondbacks have resumed long-term contract negotiations. "Yeah, some progress has been made," Webb said. "We've been talking a little bit more. We've made some headway. We'll see where it goes." He's already under the team's control through 2010.

While Webb considers putting talks on hold for a while to earn a little extra cash, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* If you look strictly at power numbers Carlos Pena is having a nice follow-up to his breakout 2007 season, because following his eighth long ball Thursday he's on pace for 38 homers after setting a career-high with 46 bombs. However, the rest of his offensive game has been a mess. He's struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances, which ranks second-worst among AL hitters behind only Jack Cust and is up considerably from last season's already high 23 percent.

Beyond that, Pena has 3.1 strikeouts for every walk after posting a much more palatable 1.4-to-1 ratio (142 strikeouts, 103 walks) last season. Not surprising given all the whiffing, Pena is batting .201 overall, has just 16 non-homer hits in 33 games, and is on pace for 35 fewer RBIs than he notched in 2007. If there's any good news, it's that Pena's batting average on balls in play is a measly .240, which is very low even for a plodding slugger.

His career BABIP mark is .291, including .297 last season, which means that even if he continues to strike out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances Pena should see his batting average rise toward .240-250 going forward. He's a career .249 hitter, so asking for much more than that is likely wishful thinking, but .250-35-90 would still make him a solid value given his average draft position. The power has been there and a few more hits will begin falling soon, so stay patient.

* After demoting Mark Redman to the bullpen earlier this week, the Rockies are expected to call up Greg Reynolds from Triple-A to join the rotation Sunday. Reynolds is a 6-foot-7 right-hander who was the second overall pick in the 2006 draft, but those two facts alone vastly overstate his long-term upside. Even at the time of the draft he wasn't thought of as an especially elite prospect and he's battled shoulder problems while putting up mediocre numbers in the minors since then.

His 2.98 ERA in 133 minor-league innings looks nice, but Reynolds has struck out just 80 of the 545 batters he's faced and allowed opponents to hit .331 against him in seven starts at Triple-A this year. He throws strikes and gets plenty of ground balls, which makes him a relatively good fit for Coors Field and a decent prospect, but don't expect him to develop into much more than a solid mid-rotation starter down the line and don't count on him being a fantasy asset right now.

* Justin Verlander's season-long struggles continued Thursday, as he allowed five runs on nine hits versus the Red Sox, matching his loss total from all of last year by falling to 1-6. Despite still getting knocked around, Verlander's velocity has gradually increased since he was consistently down 4-5 miles per hour early in the year and he has a 10-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last two outings after posting a 20/18 mark through his first half-dozen starts. It's something, at least.

* Ryan Ludwick homered twice in a losing effort Thursday, making him 9-for-14 with three homers and three doubles during the Cardinals' four-game series with the Rockies. Ludwick is up to .363 with seven homers and 21 RBIs despite getting a total of just 91 at-bats through St. Louis' first 36 games. Manager Tony La Russa has been hesitant to play Ludwick versus right-handers, opting instead for Chris Duncan and Skip Schumaker, but you've got to think that'll begin to change.

AL Quick Hits: Richie Sexson could be facing a multi-game suspension after charging the mound Thursday and throwing his helmet as Kason Gabbard ? Kevin Youkilis homered Thursday for the fifth time in five games, upping his slugging percentage by 150 points over that span ? Texas designated Ben Broussard for assignment Thursday, signaling that Frank Catalanotto and Chris Shelton will now split time at first base ? With both David Eckstein (hip) and John McDonald (ankle) placed on the disabled list Thursday, Marco Scutaro is suddenly the Blue Jays' starting shortstop ? Troy Percival entered Thursday's game with a 0.00 ERA, but blew his first save of the season while allowing three runs ? Curtis Granderson went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts Thursday and has now fanned in 10 of his last 22 at-bats ? Bartolo Colon (oblique) is scheduled to start Saturday at Triple-A ? After being highlighted on this week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show, Kevin Slowey came off the shelf Thursday and cruised through four scoreless innings before serving up a pair of homers.

NL Quick Hits: A CT scan taken Thursday showed that Doug Davis' thyroid cancer didn't spread, clearing him to begin a minor-league rehab assignment ? Jimmy Rollins (ankle) is scheduled to return from the disabled list and be in the lineup Friday versus the Giants ? With Paul Lo Duca (hand) expected to miss 4-6 weeks and Johnny Estrada (elbow) also heading to the DL, 23-year-old Jesus Flores is now the Nationals' starting catcher ? An MRI of Rafael Soriano's injured elbow reportedly showed no structural damage, but there's no timetable yet for his return ? Kyle Lohse posted a 2.54 ERA through six starts, but after getting clobbered Thursday he's allowed 15 runs over his last two outings to inflate his ERA to 4.87 ? A late addition to the lineup Thursday over Yorvit Torrealba, Chris Iannetta continued his hot hitting by driving in two runs ? Unable to find a trade for Derrick Turnbow that they liked, the Brewers placed him on irrevocable waivers and may end up sending him to Triple-A ? Manager Bruce Bochy said Wednesday that he's hoping to have Omar Vizquel (knee) back this weekend