Re: The NBA is the EASIEST sport to handicap!
Ok. So far we have the beat the inner square theory and the bet on teams you know will tank theory. Any other gems boys?
These won't get you anywhere in the NBA...MadCapper has sort of the right idea for one way to cap the NBA preseason, as I did mention in a thread on a different forum where I have 2 rules for the NBA preseason and what MadCapper says would fall under rule #2:
1) When in doubt, take the underdog of 5 points or more every time (NFL, it's 3.5)...
2) Take the side that, if this was a regular season game, would have "no shot" at covering...Another words, take the side that in your mind, should have no shot at covering based on "reputation"...Or, to put it more simply, take the side that "makes no sense" to take at first blush...
Overall, underdogs are 20-12-1 in the preseason, even with a 4-6 night last night...
And yes, the NBA is the easiest sport to handicap...There are several things to look for, but if I would have to pick one thing to look for and put it at the top of the list, the answer is simple:
You look for the team that has the most motivation to win on any given night...
Teams rarely tank games...Someone wrote that teams tank playoff games...That is laughable...I mean, yes, if a team is down 30 with 6 minutes left, do they give up and put all the subs in?...Of course...That is not "tanking a game"...
NBA is the most situational sport, by far, based on the schedule...And this creates a plethora of situational opportunities to recognize and sometimes, feast on...Some situational trends will conflict with each other during certain match-ups, so you use the stronger trend, or the stronger motivational factor, or pass...
And a big thing that any seasoned handicapper will notice in the NBA is patterns or streaks...They pop up all over the place during the season...And after long ones finish, they generally immediately reverse themselves...
Some trends are very strong one season, and only somewhat strong the next...If a perennially strong trend (like the 4 of 5 trend) starts out slow the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season, be ready for it to get smoking hot for the next 6 to 8 weeks...
There are so many things to look for, I don't have time to list them all, but doing your homework is pretty much always my #1 recommendation...If you are experienced enough, your gut is often all you need on most nights, but I have a database in MS-Excel that I glance at, and I also have paper charts that I update daily, and these daily charts are my Bible...Checking the boxscores daily is important, too, to determine the pace of games for totals (how many shots and FTs were taken) and also to look for extremes in one teams' FG% as those will reverse to the mean or more the next time out...
I have been handicapping the NBA since 1983 (not counting 2 years I took off capping sports in college)...The NBA is my passion...
I have 2 samples from my NBA database, which contains 17 years worth of data going back to 1991-92...
Database_Team_sample
Database_RegSeason_sample
I really haven't even realized all the power of that info yet...I look at the trends as a guide, but there is some stuff there that I will sit down and really delve into one day...But what works for me still are my paper charts and here is a sample of half of the 2006-07 season in paper chart form:
Paper charts sample
I like it in this form because you have an 8-week snap-shot of the NBA season on one piece of paper for sides, and then one for totals...And you see unmistakable patterns develop when you have charts like this...And I have been doing these charts since the 1991-92 season...
Anyway, the NBA is very beatable...Looking at and more importantly, understanding the motivational and situational spots is one of the biggest keys...
And following Omniverous Frog on this forum would be a way not to do any work, I guess, for those too lazy to cap but who do want winners to bet...He is the only one on this forum that I recognize as a capper who wins at the NBA, so GL this season Froggie...
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