Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

[tool21]

Injuries, situations and HF adv. are not included. Teams with * are off a bye week.

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Denver (46.5) 49.78
Cleveland (-3) -5.36
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*New Orleans (48.5) 49.57
Atlanta (-1) -.73
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Tennessee (-3) -4.66
Chicago (40) 41.06
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Jacksonville (-6.5) -9.8
Detroit (45) 43.29
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Seattle (44) 38.67
Miami (-7.5) -8.43
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Green Bay (48) 51.81
Minnesota (-3) +2.67
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Buffalo (43) 36.23
New England (-3) -.22
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St. Louis (47) 49.62
NY Jets (-7.5) -11.47
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Baltimore (41) 55.49
Houston (-2.5) +6.74
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*Carolina (-7) -14.92
Oakland (38) 32.17
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Indianapolis 38.32
Pittsburgh -6.42
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Kansas City (46.5) 55.77
*San Diego (-14) -15.21
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NY Giants (45) 45.41
Philadelphia (-3) -.58
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*San Francisco (49) 57.69
Arizona (-9) -13.07
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[3pointdog]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

tool how do you read your rankings???

I assume the "real line" is in () and your lines are next to them???same with the totals?

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

tool how do you read your rankings???

I assume the "real line" is in () and your lines are next to them???same with the totals?

Very good guess. I usually post this info but forgot.


Book opener is in ( ) while the other number is my projection.

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

1. Baltimore PK (-105)

I have them favored by 7 in this game. Flacco is very underrated and has been getting better every week. Houston defense isn't too tough and he should have much success against them. Baltimore defense is very tough. This might be my only pick this week. Lines are tight.

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Since I only have one play this week I decided to do a writeup. Consider yourself lucky.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 5-3 record and Houston with a 3-5 record. Flacco is the difference in this Baltimore team from years past. He is not a great quarterback, but he is a quarterback that doesn't make too many mistakes. The only way to really disturb this Baltimore team is to get pressure on Flacco. Houston does not have the defense do take advantage of this inefficiency of Baltimore. Houston defense is allowing .65 yards per rush more than average while Baltimore is fairly average running the ball (.01 yards per rush less than average). This being the case Baltimore should be able to run the ball as they wish. Houston will make Flacco look like Tom Brady as they allow 1.46 yards per pass more than average. Flacco is just an average quarterback throwing for .15 yards per pass less than average but like I said with Houston's poor pass defense he should be able to move the ball around pretty well. Baltimore's defense is very good giving up 1 yards less per rush than the rest of the league while Houston averages .34 yards per rush more than league average. Houston should struggle to run the ball. Houston's strong point is passing. Averaging .73 yards per pass higher than average but Baltimore's pass defense allows .11 yards per pass less than the league average. Long story short, this game is a case of an average offense (Baltimore) versus a bad defense (Houston) and a good offense (Houston) versus a good defense (Houston). Baltimore comes out with this win. :cheers

Baltimore 28
Houston 21

 

[mofome]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

i consider myself lucky, tool.

 

[junkman773]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Good Luck

 

[SenileAndy]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Nice Tool, was thnking the other way but hard to disagree with you.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Very good guess. I usually post this info but forgot.


Book opener is in ( ) while the other number is my projection.

Can you make this a little more clear, i dont get it?

 

[SenileAndy]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

The line it opened at is (inside) and his computer projects his line to be xx which is the other number.

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Can you make this a little more clear, i dont get it?

Team (Book Opener) My projection

also

Adding some more on Baltimore +3 (-115).

If this is a trap game consider me trapped. This line is off by a good 8 points IMO. Sage is just as good as Schuab. He is not any better than, but he is good. I just don't see how Baltimore loses this game unless they don't try.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

At what point do you decide to play a game, does the number have to be off by a certain amount from your projection, or is that just one of your tools for capping?

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

At what point do you decide to play a game, does the number have to be off by a certain amount from your projection, or is that just one of your tools for capping?

These projections use overall stats. That being the case, if ANY home team is showing value they should be considered because they are already showing value and if you add Home field advantage it will add even more value. I consider around a 7 points difference for away teams to consider. So this week i considered Arizona, San Diego, Baltimore, Jets, Miami, Cleveland. Cleveland started Quinn so no play, Arizona is playing San Francisco who is off a by so no play, San Diego line moved to far so no play, Jets line moved to far so no play, and Miami line moved to far so no play. This leaves Baltimore. My only play.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Thanks for the explanation, i just wish i wasnt on the other side already.:doh1

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

Thanks for the explanation, i just wish i wasnt on the other side already.:doh1

Keep in mind this is just a tool. Injuries and situations are not included in the games. Handicapping a game for me involves making the line and then checking it to see if it makes sense. This would include checking out injuries, weather and coaching strategies not just for the upcoming week but the previous weeks. The most important thing about this method is to find out why the line is off. If you can't find any of this information then it's a good bet. The more time put into a bet the better off it will be.

 

[tool21]

Re: Play(s) for Week 10 and Projections

2. Miami -7 (-110)

Sorry for such a late bet this game was at -9.5 all week I just noticed it came down. Seattle traveling cross country and playing a good Miami team. My line says Miami by at least 8. Home field should be worth a lot considering the cross country trip and Seattle is a terrible road team. Miami should be able to pass all over this Seattle pass defense.