"Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Not saying bet all your hard earned money on this logic, but its something to think about going forward. I've seen urgency wane on teams who don't 'need' to be as urgent.

When the Chargers kick off in Pitt, they are going to know the result of the Falcons-Broncos. I feel that if the Broncos lose (likely) the Chargers won't be as urgent. I know, everyone will say that the Chargers might be MORE urgent because they can tie the division, but i actually think it works the other way. SD knows they have no shot at a wildcard, so they are just focused on Denver and beating them out for the division. If Denver loses, the Chargers could play 'down' to their level of competition and not treat this game today as a must win.

ALso, the Steelers will know the result of the Ravens game when they take the field......If Baltimore upsets NYG and Denver loses, Pitt will be the way more urgent team.

At this point in the year, guys are banged up and tired and dont' want to work any harder than they have to. its important to really look at motivation and incentive. this is tricky because its much more complicated than it appears. You can really apply any logic that you want. For example, Detroit is 0-9. One school of logic is that they don't need any of their remaining games because they are ofically eliminated from the playoffs, but, otoh, they DO 'need' at least one of their final 7 games to avoid the humiliation of going 0 for the season. Detroit will 'need' at least one of their games going forward....which one it is, is up for debate.

Ive seen this urgency a lot in the MLB, teams who are tied for the division or wildcard seem to mirror the result of the rival who plays an earlier game. If the Red Sox and Yanks are tied with 7 games left in the season and the Sox win their 1pm game, they Yanks will find a way to win their 8pm game to keep pace. If the Red Sox lose their game, the Yanks will also lose their game. I've seen this SO many times. Matching what your rival does is an angle that i'm working on perfecting. San Diego might want to 'match' Denver....in reality, the most important thing the Chargers need to accomplish today is to NOT fall further back behind Denver.

If Broncos get crushed today, SD might not be as urgent because they know that they don't lose ground if they also lose.

(btw, SD sucks, i wouldn't recommend a play on them even if Denver wins earlier in the day)
 

Journeyman

EOG Master
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

good points Kid...don't you think it's a tad early to be scoreboard watching though?
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

No, not in the NFL. We are down to 1 game can mean the difference between playoffs and golf, there' only 6 or 7 games left, every game is huge.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

SD might have more urgency....must win for the Bolts, they can't fall farther behind Denver, they have to answer, their season is on the line.
 
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

Denver won and SD will have urgency. But I think SD will lose anyway.
 
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

Teams also play tighter, knowing their margin of error is much less. The must-win factor is factored in the line many times, creating real value on the other side,
 

Journeyman

EOG Master
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

Teams also play tighter, knowing their margin of error is much less. The must-win factor is factored in the line many times, creating real value on the other side,

I agree with all of this...and use all these ideals when I make a play, I'm just not so sure teams are going to be letting up this early...there are definitely spots where teams will be more motivated .

I can't see SD or Pitt playing with less today because their closest competitor won or lost.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

I agree with all of this...and use all these ideals when I make a play, I'm just not so sure teams are going to be letting up this early...there are definitely spots where teams will be more motivated .

I can't see SD or Pitt playing with less today because their closest competitor won or lost.

If you believe this, and i totally respect your pov, than that means you believe that pro athletes in this day and age have the ability to tune out all outside distractions and plow forward and be pros in all situations. Personally, i believe that athletes today, for the most part, are primadonnas who make too much money to try all the time. If they can find ANY window of opportunity to 'take a game off' they're going to do it.
 

Journeyman

EOG Master
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

I am with you on this Kid...just not 100%...I get your point totally.

The most intriguing part of this thread , you can wait til 4pm in certain spots and get the same line many times that you could have at 1 pm

Perfect example Den wins today, then SD is a play...when you factor in the pointspread I think this is a huge handicapping tool.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: "Needing the game" refresher course, NFL 101.

I am with you on this Kid...just not 100%...I get your point totally.

The most intriguing part of this thread , you can wait til 4pm in certain spots and get the same line many times that you could have at 1 pm

Perfect example Den wins today, then SD is a play...when you factor in the pointspread I think this is a huge handicapping tool.

Exactly. SD became a much better play after Denver's victory.
 
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