NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Detroit +7 for .6%
ML +260 for .2%
very tough stretch for Detroit. got thumped at home by the Celts then @GS, typically very good at home, @LA, @Phx, then the comeback vs Cavs. Not sure how much is left in the tank. On the flip side Boston hasn't really won a meaningful home game by this number. Held on vs NY, and Chicago blah, and didn't cover vs Milwaukee.
Kevin Garnett
suspension served
Probable
is probable Thursday vs Detroit.
Detroit +7 for .6%
ML +260 for .2%
very tough stretch for Detroit. got thumped at home by the Celts then @GS, typically very good at home, @LA, @Phx, then the comeback vs Cavs. Not sure how much is left in the tank. On the flip side Boston hasn't really won a meaningful home game by this number. Held on vs NY, and Chicago blah, and didn't cover vs Milwaukee.
Kevin Garnett
suspension served
Probable
is probable Thursday vs Detroit.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks, I figured it was off by just enough.
PHX ML +180 for .3%
thanks, I figured it was off by just enough.
PHX ML +180 for .3%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
best of luck to you too.
hopefully, we don't need lady luck.
best of luck to you too.
hopefully, we don't need lady luck.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm passing on the Bos/Det 2h b/c I don't want to get intertwined in polish middles etc. And I'm a little dizzy from looking at half a dozen NCAA games at the same time, the NFL game, and the college football game and then looking at the 2h numbers at 2 dozen books and playing 2h's all day. But I will say the right side is Boston -1 at +money or pk b/c Detroit after that road trip is probably gassed. I'm not playing it b/c Bos wins by 8 I lose both and seems unlikely except that with only 2 games in the NBA the numbers are typically a lot sharper. At least I'm hoping they are, but it's still too early for me to middle even with 3-4 points moves. With college basketball just starting it's too much to keep up with early positions on middle opps b/c injury reports etc are going to move the line on quite a few players and in NCAA basketball a lot of those line moves are AIR, fakes, whatever you want to call them.
I'm passing on the Bos/Det 2h b/c I don't want to get intertwined in polish middles etc. And I'm a little dizzy from looking at half a dozen NCAA games at the same time, the NFL game, and the college football game and then looking at the 2h numbers at 2 dozen books and playing 2h's all day. But I will say the right side is Boston -1 at +money or pk b/c Detroit after that road trip is probably gassed. I'm not playing it b/c Bos wins by 8 I lose both and seems unlikely except that with only 2 games in the NBA the numbers are typically a lot sharper. At least I'm hoping they are, but it's still too early for me to middle even with 3-4 points moves. With college basketball just starting it's too much to keep up with early positions on middle opps b/c injury reports etc are going to move the line on quite a few players and in NCAA basketball a lot of those line moves are AIR, fakes, whatever you want to call them.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
nothing really that great IMO today, just chopping away, I need a real bad streak before I feel good about opening it up a bit.
LAC +10.5 for .5%
ML +500 for .2%
pretty much gambling, I'm terrible historically with LAC and that win over OKC was meaningless, but Philly is laying too many.
nothing really that great IMO today, just chopping away, I need a real bad streak before I feel good about opening it up a bit.
LAC +10.5 for .5%
ML +500 for .2%
pretty much gambling, I'm terrible historically with LAC and that win over OKC was meaningless, but Philly is laying too many.
cheapseats
EOG Master
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
yeah, I don't like to gamble. I like poker, but it's not really gambling, black jack is boring after 5 minutes. But today I'm gambling a bit, but I have some definite reasoning behind these longshots.
I'm not real happy about the Laker's game last night, not so much that I lost. It's more that the Lakers being so dominant AND so public screws things up a bit. I stayed away from Boston for the most part last year, but now there are 2 very public AND dominant teams. And I'm mostly staying away from the Spurs, a team I was good with. I guess I wont see NJ move back to 9, I don't usually buy but I am on a hunch here. Home teams on Friday nights tend to do well in the NBA. Not that it has anything to do much with the following, but OKC has to win sometime and NO is bad on the road.
NJ +9 to -120 for .7%
ML +375 for .3%
yeah, I don't like to gamble. I like poker, but it's not really gambling, black jack is boring after 5 minutes. But today I'm gambling a bit, but I have some definite reasoning behind these longshots.
I'm not real happy about the Laker's game last night, not so much that I lost. It's more that the Lakers being so dominant AND so public screws things up a bit. I stayed away from Boston for the most part last year, but now there are 2 very public AND dominant teams. And I'm mostly staying away from the Spurs, a team I was good with. I guess I wont see NJ move back to 9, I don't usually buy but I am on a hunch here. Home teams on Friday nights tend to do well in the NBA. Not that it has anything to do much with the following, but OKC has to win sometime and NO is bad on the road.
NJ +9 to -120 for .7%
ML +375 for .3%
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
cashed on the clip + play, thanks X...catch you later...
cashed on the clip + play, thanks X...catch you later...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
11/21
Indiana under 203 for .8% w
Charlotte/ATL over 188 for .8% l
Parlay of Min +6 to under 184 for .7% l
mil/NY under 208.5 for .6% w
LAC +10.5 for .5% w
ML +500 for .2% l
adding .1% to LAC +10 w
and .1% to ML +500 l
adding .3% to NY under 208 w
Memphis team total under 93 for .5% w
Sac +4.5 for .7% l
ML +175 for .3% l
NJ +9 to -120 for .7% w
ML +375 for .3% w
Utah +4.5 for .7% l
ML +160 for .3% l
OKC +10 for .7% l
ML +550 for .3% l
-4.8 +4.225
.72 .54 .45 .09 .27 .45 .58 1.125
I told myself after yesterday no more public dogs. But here I go again.
Atlanta +12 for 1.1%
ML +700 for .3%
Cavs haven't really beaten anyone, and this game is what stands in the way of an extended break for them, but prob hungry after their last defeat.
I should have just followed my instinct and played the Nets hard, and the Clippers for some. But it turned out pretty much like a game of Blackjack.
11/21
Indiana under 203 for .8% w
Charlotte/ATL over 188 for .8% l
Parlay of Min +6 to under 184 for .7% l
mil/NY under 208.5 for .6% w
LAC +10.5 for .5% w
ML +500 for .2% l
adding .1% to LAC +10 w
and .1% to ML +500 l
adding .3% to NY under 208 w
Memphis team total under 93 for .5% w
Sac +4.5 for .7% l
ML +175 for .3% l
NJ +9 to -120 for .7% w
ML +375 for .3% w
Utah +4.5 for .7% l
ML +160 for .3% l
OKC +10 for .7% l
ML +550 for .3% l
-4.8 +4.225
.72 .54 .45 .09 .27 .45 .58 1.125
I told myself after yesterday no more public dogs. But here I go again.
Atlanta +12 for 1.1%
ML +700 for .3%
Cavs haven't really beaten anyone, and this game is what stands in the way of an extended break for them, but prob hungry after their last defeat.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm on your lean LAC O....
I'm on your lean LAC O....
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I ended up playing both smallish, and Kansas in NCAA, forgot to post here, think I did at the other place. Mind is fuzzy, not seeing clearly or just not anything very good to throw money at. Probably something to do with current biorhythms. I don't use a black and white math model, I do look at numbers, but that is maybe 40% of it, most of it is 'reading into scenarios' similar to playing other people's cards in poker. So when I'm not feeling like I'm seeing clearly I usually do something else for a few days. At this very moment I think it's more of just unpredictable matchups. When there are this few NBA games usually the games don't move as much. There were a lot of moves, which to me means that the books aren't so sure of there #'s either and are moving more on action instead of taking a stance. I'm still wary of a losing streak looming as football in both leagues has been too good, things tend to even out.
Washington +2.5 for .6%
GS is a bad road team, yes Wiz are horrid, but I like taking teams with new leadership mid-season
I ended up playing both smallish, and Kansas in NCAA, forgot to post here, think I did at the other place. Mind is fuzzy, not seeing clearly or just not anything very good to throw money at. Probably something to do with current biorhythms. I don't use a black and white math model, I do look at numbers, but that is maybe 40% of it, most of it is 'reading into scenarios' similar to playing other people's cards in poker. So when I'm not feeling like I'm seeing clearly I usually do something else for a few days. At this very moment I think it's more of just unpredictable matchups. When there are this few NBA games usually the games don't move as much. There were a lot of moves, which to me means that the books aren't so sure of there #'s either and are moving more on action instead of taking a stance. I'm still wary of a losing streak looming as football in both leagues has been too good, things tend to even out.
Washington +2.5 for .6%
GS is a bad road team, yes Wiz are horrid, but I like taking teams with new leadership mid-season
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
PHX under 202.5 for .5%
I think the public may actually be playing this under so I discounted it. Shaq may be out which hurts the under, but Suns appear to try to play more defense on the road, and both teams have rest plus shot around 50% in their last game which tends to favor an under in the next.
PHX under 202.5 for .5%
I think the public may actually be playing this under so I discounted it. Shaq may be out which hurts the under, but Suns appear to try to play more defense on the road, and both teams have rest plus shot around 50% in their last game which tends to favor an under in the next.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Whats your take on the Denver-Clips game, both new players will be in uniform tonight for the Clippies according to papers here in L.A.
Whats your take on the Denver-Clips game, both new players will be in uniform tonight for the Clippies according to papers here in L.A.