New Year's Eve Plays

G

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Note: If you haven't read my threads the past couple of days, I've been ice cold. Anyways... 2 road Big Ten teams... if they both fall, then I may not play another road team this season...

2* Wisconsin +2.5 - I know Michigan has a couple nice wins. And they're at home. I don't care. Prove it in conference play, Michigan. UCLA is still coming together. Duke isn't the physical team that Wisconsin is. Michigan hasn't given me a great reason to take them over Wisconsin + points yet.

2* Michigan State pk - Michigan State has been inconsistent... but they're a diffferent team with big Goran in the middle. Minnesota is a good story, but I think State should go there and beat the Gophers. MSU is a young team that should continue to get better. But they also have some talented veterans in Suton and Morgan. Full disclosure: I am a Spartans fan.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

bol goon! great info. the wisc/mich game has me scratching my head still.
 
G

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

Should've waited this morning for lines. Was fairly certain the Michigan State line was going to keep moving this direction (now MSU +1). Wisconsin I figured might move a little against me (really wasn't sure), but it's now moved out to +3 Wisc.
 
G

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

5* Wyoming-Utah State o144.5

Maybe I'm missing something here... but Wyoming has played in 2 games all year that didn't go over this number.
 
G

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

Blondie said:
Goon, I am curious as to why you are playing this would it be possible for you to elaborate as to why you think this is going to be a winner?

Thanks!
Click to expand...

No tips or really good information from anyone. Haven't seen either of the teams play this year. Just some schedule analysis. Bowling Green played tough on the road against Minnesota and Ohio State (granted in losses). BG also has a lot more size than Duquesne (in terms of players that tend to play regularly. Duquesne's wins aren't particularly impressive. BG also has forwards that can score. Against a team as small as Duquesne's, I think they can give them some trouble. BG is also a defensive team that should be ablet to keep it close. It's mostly a value bet. I wouldn't take BG -110 against Duquesne. I'd probably no play. But at +220, I think there could be some value to this line. Still keeping it small at less than a unit.

Growing up outside of Pittsburgh, I'd probably have more knowledge on this game in the past. Living NC now though, it's basically based on subjective schedule analysis.
 
Blondie

Blondie

EOG Master
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

UGH I just lost my entire post

Let me try this again....

I see your point on this but have you considered the fact that

While BG did play tough against those two teams they have yet to win a game on the road while Duq is 4-2 in home games.

and Duq's four losses came from teams with a record of 39-6 combined.

Another point to consider is in the series between these two teams Duq leads 14-9

While they are a young team, I think they can hold their own...
 
G

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: New Year's Eve Plays

I don't put a ton of weight on historical records between two teams. If I do I would weight it to more recent times. Last year Duquesne did win pretty handily. Bowling Green has won 8 of the past 14. If anything I would let Duquesne's win last year influence me. Bowling Green keeps their games close. Outside of Minnesota (7 points) and Illinois State (11 or 12 points, don't feel like looking it up now), two teams I consider to be better than Duquesne), Bowling Green has kept their losses within 4 points. Maybe I should've taken the 6 points. But I think Bowling Green can keep this close. BG has also been a slightly (very slightly) better foul shooting team than Duquesne. I think if you give them this game 3 times, they can win at least once (making this +ev game). They can send the ball inside against this small Duquesne team. A Duquesne team that while 4-2 at home, lost convincingly against ODU earlier. ODU is a solid team, but its the type of score that makes me less weary of Duquesne's "home advantage."

Also:

Add 1unit @ +145 Wisconsin ML

Looks like the day is starting off well with Michigan State well ahead.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top