BRACKET BUSTER
- Thread starter Ned
- Start date
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
Matchups will be set on February 9th. After the jump are the teams that are participating.
Home teams: Ball State, Boston, Bowling Green, Bucknell, Cal Poly, Central Michigan, Creighton, Davidson, Drake, Drexel, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Evansville, Fairfield, Georgia Southern, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana State, James Madison, Kent State, Long Beach State, Loyola-IL, Marist, Murray State, Nevada, New Mexico State, Niagara, Old Dominion, Portland State, Rider, San Diego, San Jose State, Siena, Southeast Missouri, St. Mary's, Tennessee State, Towsom, UC-Davis, UC-Santa Barbara, UIC, UNC-Wilmington, UT-Martin, UW-Milwaukee, Valpo, Vermont, Western Michigan, Wichita State, William & Mary, Winthrop, Wright State and Youngstown State.
Away teams: Akron, Appalachian State, Austin Peay, Boise State, Bradley, Buffalo, Butler, Canisius, Cleveland State, CS-Fullerton, CS-Northridge, Delaware, Detroit, Eastern Illinois, Elon, FDU, Fresno State, George Mason, Hartford, Hofstra, Illinois State, Iona, Jacksonville State, Loyola-MD, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Gardner-Webb, Manhattan, Miami-OH, Missouri State, Montana State, Morehead State, Morgan State, North Dakota State, Northeastern, Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Pacific, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, St. Peter's, Tennessee Tech, Toledo, UC-Irvine, UC-Riverside, UMBC, Utah State, UW-Green Bay and VCU
Matchups will be set on February 9th. After the jump are the teams that are participating.
Home teams: Ball State, Boston, Bowling Green, Bucknell, Cal Poly, Central Michigan, Creighton, Davidson, Drake, Drexel, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Evansville, Fairfield, Georgia Southern, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana State, James Madison, Kent State, Long Beach State, Loyola-IL, Marist, Murray State, Nevada, New Mexico State, Niagara, Old Dominion, Portland State, Rider, San Diego, San Jose State, Siena, Southeast Missouri, St. Mary's, Tennessee State, Towsom, UC-Davis, UC-Santa Barbara, UIC, UNC-Wilmington, UT-Martin, UW-Milwaukee, Valpo, Vermont, Western Michigan, Wichita State, William & Mary, Winthrop, Wright State and Youngstown State.
Away teams: Akron, Appalachian State, Austin Peay, Boise State, Bradley, Buffalo, Butler, Canisius, Cleveland State, CS-Fullerton, CS-Northridge, Delaware, Detroit, Eastern Illinois, Elon, FDU, Fresno State, George Mason, Hartford, Hofstra, Illinois State, Iona, Jacksonville State, Loyola-MD, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Gardner-Webb, Manhattan, Miami-OH, Missouri State, Montana State, Morehead State, Morgan State, North Dakota State, Northeastern, Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Pacific, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, St. Peter's, Tennessee Tech, Toledo, UC-Irvine, UC-Riverside, UMBC, Utah State, UW-Green Bay and VCU
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
The seventh annual ESPNU BracketBusters event, a two-day men?s college basketball extravaganza pitting potential NCAA Tournament hopefuls against each other on February 20-21, will feature 13 nationally televised games ? on either ESPN2, ESPNU or ESPN360.com -- selected from a pool of 102 teams. The field includes Fairleigh Dickinson, making its second appearance in the event, competing as one of the road teams.
The seventh annual ESPNU BracketBusters event, a two-day men?s college basketball extravaganza pitting potential NCAA Tournament hopefuls against each other on February 20-21, will feature 13 nationally televised games ? on either ESPN2, ESPNU or ESPN360.com -- selected from a pool of 102 teams. The field includes Fairleigh Dickinson, making its second appearance in the event, competing as one of the road teams.
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
I am a big fan of this system having made a good deal of money on it in the last two years. I am also a big fan of yours having read many of your posts and being impressed with your analysis.
While you are in the house, I have a question. I understand the math behind the system, but what is the theory behind why totals under 144.5 seem to go over at such a high rate? You would think that these games would be more likely to stay under the total since you have teams that are new to each other and playing in an environment they have never experienced. i.e. alien gyms and in some cases appearances on ESPN which leads to more pressure on good shooting.
I know the numbers have worked for a number of years in a row, but I am curious as to why you think they do.
The same is true with underdogs of 1 to 3.5 points. What is your guess?
I am a big fan of this system having made a good deal of money on it in the last two years. I am also a big fan of yours having read many of your posts and being impressed with your analysis.
While you are in the house, I have a question. I understand the math behind the system, but what is the theory behind why totals under 144.5 seem to go over at such a high rate? You would think that these games would be more likely to stay under the total since you have teams that are new to each other and playing in an environment they have never experienced. i.e. alien gyms and in some cases appearances on ESPN which leads to more pressure on good shooting.
I know the numbers have worked for a number of years in a row, but I am curious as to why you think they do.
The same is true with underdogs of 1 to 3.5 points. What is your guess?
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
I think when you get these types of teams playing each other, they don't know the tendencies of the other teams, and since most of them are mid majors or lower, the caliber of defense just isn't there, and the preparation time for a team, they likely never played before, prevents them from shutting down the offenses. I think the oddsmakers have treated these games, much the same as you have, that it should be low scoring, and have consistently for 5 yrs. missed the boat. I also think the small dogs are playing their biggest game of the year, and with a low pointspread, are basically considered even with their opponent, but perhaps more motivated. I couldn't begin to say that all of the above has merit, all I know is they have won now for 5 consecutive years. Sooner or later this system, like most will fall by the wayside, but I have made so much money off it now, I can certainly absorb the loss if it tanks this year, but my realistic expectation is if it tanks, it won't be worse than 50-50. I'm not the daily gambler like most here. I strictly pick my spots, and wager with great disipline. Even the NFL stuff I threw out there, I went 2-2 on but made a lot of cash. The problem is most think they can pick games every night and win, haven't seen many that can do that. They might have a big year, in one sport, and lose in another. I don't even play a game that has less than a 60% chance to win. Nothing lasts forever, even the Cleveland/Det under which is now 23-1 and yet another 10+ point cover (75% of them have been), will run its course, but I have cleaned up on the last 12. I just spot great value and pass on the rest, if I have anything before the bracketbuster worth playing, I'll post it. I am no better than anyone else, so don't get that impression from me. I am better at being selective than anyone else, that is why I win every single year. Haven't had a losing year in the last 14. When I get in on a game, I go very large, so my risk is high, but my calculated selectivity, gives the books a lot more risk in my opinion. I know how to break down a game, and I know what matters, and when I find the right situation, backed by a big historical edge as well, I unload.
I think when you get these types of teams playing each other, they don't know the tendencies of the other teams, and since most of them are mid majors or lower, the caliber of defense just isn't there, and the preparation time for a team, they likely never played before, prevents them from shutting down the offenses. I think the oddsmakers have treated these games, much the same as you have, that it should be low scoring, and have consistently for 5 yrs. missed the boat. I also think the small dogs are playing their biggest game of the year, and with a low pointspread, are basically considered even with their opponent, but perhaps more motivated. I couldn't begin to say that all of the above has merit, all I know is they have won now for 5 consecutive years. Sooner or later this system, like most will fall by the wayside, but I have made so much money off it now, I can certainly absorb the loss if it tanks this year, but my realistic expectation is if it tanks, it won't be worse than 50-50. I'm not the daily gambler like most here. I strictly pick my spots, and wager with great disipline. Even the NFL stuff I threw out there, I went 2-2 on but made a lot of cash. The problem is most think they can pick games every night and win, haven't seen many that can do that. They might have a big year, in one sport, and lose in another. I don't even play a game that has less than a 60% chance to win. Nothing lasts forever, even the Cleveland/Det under which is now 23-1 and yet another 10+ point cover (75% of them have been), will run its course, but I have cleaned up on the last 12. I just spot great value and pass on the rest, if I have anything before the bracketbuster worth playing, I'll post it. I am no better than anyone else, so don't get that impression from me. I am better at being selective than anyone else, that is why I win every single year. Haven't had a losing year in the last 14. When I get in on a game, I go very large, so my risk is high, but my calculated selectivity, gives the books a lot more risk in my opinion. I know how to break down a game, and I know what matters, and when I find the right situation, backed by a big historical edge as well, I unload.
Desination
EOG Enthusiast
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
The match-ups are already set, just not the times (even though some games have times set...example Akron @ Valpo 8:05) Head over to espn, go to scoreboard for Feb. 21st, and you will find a majority of the games at the bottom with times TBD.
If I find some time I will post all of the games, but just wanted everyone to know the match-ups are set.
The match-ups are already set, just not the times (even though some games have times set...example Akron @ Valpo 8:05) Head over to espn, go to scoreboard for Feb. 21st, and you will find a majority of the games at the bottom with times TBD.
If I find some time I will post all of the games, but just wanted everyone to know the match-ups are set.
Desination
EOG Enthusiast
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
Some interesting match-ups
Utah St. (21-1) @ St. Mary's (18-3)
Northern Iowa (10-1 MVC) @ Siena (12-0 MAAC)
Butler (19-2) @ Davidson (19-3)
Some interesting match-ups
Utah St. (21-1) @ St. Mary's (18-3)
Northern Iowa (10-1 MVC) @ Siena (12-0 MAAC)
Butler (19-2) @ Davidson (19-3)
Desination
EOG Enthusiast
Re: BRACKET BUSTER
Ned...love the BB and all the hard work you do. Have a question for you about playing teams that usually don't have lined games. I am wondering why you did not play them last year, as from years 2003-2006 they went 8-2, and my numbers have them going 3-3-1 in 2007 and 7-2 last year, for a total of 18-7-1.
I backtracked 2007 and 2008 and went on your numbers that you posted in the original BB thread for 2003-2006.
There are a total of 12 teams playing in the BB this year that usually don't have line games. Obviously the books don't know these teams very well and hence, why I think there will be line value. Below are the teams for this year (in bold) with what conference they play in.
UMBC @ Rider American East
Hartford @ Marist American East
Buffalo @ Vermont American East
Iona @ Boston American East
Liberty @ Old Dominion Big South
Gardner Webb @ James Madison Big South
Applachian St. @ Winthrop Big South
North Dakota St. @ UW-Milwaukee Summit
South Dakota St. @ Cal-Poly Summit
Fairleigh Dickenson @ Central Michigan NEC
Delaware @ Bucknell Patriot
Morgan St. @ Towson MEAC
If you could give your insight on whether to play these games or not that would be great. I have the games for 2008 and 2007 with the closing lines and results if you would like me to post those.
18 more days!
Ned...love the BB and all the hard work you do. Have a question for you about playing teams that usually don't have lined games. I am wondering why you did not play them last year, as from years 2003-2006 they went 8-2, and my numbers have them going 3-3-1 in 2007 and 7-2 last year, for a total of 18-7-1.
I backtracked 2007 and 2008 and went on your numbers that you posted in the original BB thread for 2003-2006.
There are a total of 12 teams playing in the BB this year that usually don't have line games. Obviously the books don't know these teams very well and hence, why I think there will be line value. Below are the teams for this year (in bold) with what conference they play in.
UMBC @ Rider American East
Hartford @ Marist American East
Buffalo @ Vermont American East
Iona @ Boston American East
Liberty @ Old Dominion Big South
Gardner Webb @ James Madison Big South
Applachian St. @ Winthrop Big South
North Dakota St. @ UW-Milwaukee Summit
South Dakota St. @ Cal-Poly Summit
Fairleigh Dickenson @ Central Michigan NEC
Delaware @ Bucknell Patriot
Morgan St. @ Towson MEAC
If you could give your insight on whether to play these games or not that would be great. I have the games for 2008 and 2007 with the closing lines and results if you would like me to post those.
18 more days!
