The Pistons have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA for many years, and that holds true for the 2008-09 season as well. Over the last 3 years, plus this season to date, they lead the NBA in games allowing under 80 points at 43 times. That is quite a defensive accomplishment when you consider Boston is the only other eastern Conference team over 20 at 23. there is one difference this season however, as the Pistons have their worst offense in years as well. The Pistons rank 29th overall in points scored, which is their lowest ranking in each of the last 5 years. They have also completed each of the past 6 years with more games played under than over. Miami has never solved this Piston defense. Over the last 15 games played between these teams the Heat have never once topped 95 points in any game. The oddsmakers have goofed badly on this one as with the Pistons a 4 point favorite, and a total of 180.5 the expected final score reads DETROIT 92.5 MIAMI 88.5. The heat have reached 89 points against the Piston defense just 4 times in the last 15 meetings, making the expectation they reach it here, 26.7%. The Pistons have reached 93 just 3 times in the last 15 meetings making the expectation they reach it here just 20%. The Pistons have averaged just 87.6ppg vs the Heat, while the Heat has managed just 84.7ppg vs the Pistons.
THE HISTORY:
15 games played 2,586 points scored or 172.4ppg
The average line set in the 15 games was 183.2ppg
The average margin played below the line was 10.8ppg
60% of the 15 games has seen the under win by 9 points or more!
There have been 15 games or 30 possible scores that breakdown as follows:
OVER 100 scored 0
90-100 11
80-90 13
70-80 5
60-70 1
Number of games both teams reached 90: 1
Number of games with the line set at or below this one: 6
Number of those games that went under: 5
POSSESSIONS PER GAME:
There are only 6 teams in the NBA that average, and allow under 90 possessions a game. That is:
NO 87
PORT 87
DET 88
CLV 89
CHAR 89
SA 89
There are only 9 that allow 90 or less:
The 3 additions at 90 are MIAMI,ATL, and Hou
This pit 2 teams that have averaged in the top 20% of the league in game pace all season.
WHY PACE DETERMINES UNDER NOT OFFENSE vs DEFENSE:
15 GAMES PLAYED:
MIAMI:
AVERAGE SHOTS PER GAME: 70.6
Made shots: 32.4
%age made: 45.9%
AVERAGE Free Throws per game: 23.1
made FT's: 14.7
%age made 63.4%
AVERAGE 3's taken per game: 15.5
made 3's: 4.6
%age made: 29.7%
What does it take for Miami to get to the expected 89 points?
It will take them a lot. I have the same stats on Detroit in the 15 vs Miami, but due to time contraints won't be able to post.
GAME NOTES: Miami has shot well over 50% on 5 occasions, but 4 still went under! (PACE)
Miami had a game with 55% FG shooting, made 5 three's and took 47 FT's, and the game went UNDER! (PACE)
I have a lot more on this game, but just wanted to show the great detail I breakdown a game, and how selective I am. I do my homework gentlemen
13 of the 15 have gone under, and 60% of those by 9 points or more.
MY PLAY:
MIAMI/DET UNDER 180.5
THE HISTORY:
15 games played 2,586 points scored or 172.4ppg
The average line set in the 15 games was 183.2ppg
The average margin played below the line was 10.8ppg
60% of the 15 games has seen the under win by 9 points or more!
There have been 15 games or 30 possible scores that breakdown as follows:
OVER 100 scored 0
90-100 11
80-90 13
70-80 5
60-70 1
Number of games both teams reached 90: 1
Number of games with the line set at or below this one: 6
Number of those games that went under: 5
POSSESSIONS PER GAME:
There are only 6 teams in the NBA that average, and allow under 90 possessions a game. That is:
NO 87
PORT 87
DET 88
CLV 89
CHAR 89
SA 89
There are only 9 that allow 90 or less:
The 3 additions at 90 are MIAMI,ATL, and Hou
This pit 2 teams that have averaged in the top 20% of the league in game pace all season.
WHY PACE DETERMINES UNDER NOT OFFENSE vs DEFENSE:
15 GAMES PLAYED:
MIAMI:
AVERAGE SHOTS PER GAME: 70.6
Made shots: 32.4
%age made: 45.9%
AVERAGE Free Throws per game: 23.1
made FT's: 14.7
%age made 63.4%
AVERAGE 3's taken per game: 15.5
made 3's: 4.6
%age made: 29.7%
What does it take for Miami to get to the expected 89 points?
It will take them a lot. I have the same stats on Detroit in the 15 vs Miami, but due to time contraints won't be able to post.
GAME NOTES: Miami has shot well over 50% on 5 occasions, but 4 still went under! (PACE)
Miami had a game with 55% FG shooting, made 5 three's and took 47 FT's, and the game went UNDER! (PACE)
I have a lot more on this game, but just wanted to show the great detail I breakdown a game, and how selective I am. I do my homework gentlemen
13 of the 15 have gone under, and 60% of those by 9 points or more.
MY PLAY:
MIAMI/DET UNDER 180.5
