Week Thirteen Plays...

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truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Just been the year from hell for me full of bad capping and plenty of tough losses to go with it.

Still a long way to go and I play small amounts in my wagering as a hobby in high volume so I will keep plugging and hope things turn a bit.

GL to all and at this point a little lady luck wouldn't hurt.

Four Units- 1-0 +3.73 units
Three Units- 18-17 -1.48 units
Two Units- 89-84 -2.02 units
One Unit- 146-169 -30.59 units

YTD- 254-270 -30.36 units

Three Units
WKU PK (-110)- WKU is not a great road team by any means, but they are hot right now winning 5 of 6 and are coming off a real pick me up come back win against UNT over the weekend. I just don't see Arkansas St. being able to keep up with the explosive WKU attack. WKU ranks 49th in OE, while ASU really struggle to score at just 264th in OE. WKU is the much better team and I think they overcome their road woes in what could be a stale make up game home crowd for ASU.

Two Units
UConn/Louisville Under 137.5 (-110)- It is the defenses and not the offenses that make these teams so good and I think this will be an old fashioned physical Big East game in the 60's. Both teams rank in the top 10 in DE, while Louisville has to defend tonight because their offense which ranks just 76th in OE may really struggle against the size and athletes of the Huskies. Should be a great game, just might not be a pretty game to watch.

Butler/Wisc-GB Over 128 (-110)- In the first meeting these teams combined for 127 points, but I think it goes over tonight. The game won't be fast, but both teams rank in the top 55 in OE and Wisc-GB can really score on their home floor. They have scored 78 or more points in their last 6 home games and I think the winner here gets very close to 70 points and in a close game late fouls could only help push this over.

One Unit
Western Carolina +19 (-110)- Thanks to great play on their home floor, WCU now leads their division of the So-Con. Tonight they are outmatched, but they are a very strong offensive team ranked 159th in OE and I think they will play hard tonight and more confident with their recent success. The backdoor will be open for this team and I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed Davidson to single digits tonight.

St. Peters +11 (-110)- This is a big game for the young SPU team and I think they will bring forth a good effort. Their improved defense has made them much more competitive as they now rank 189th in DE and it has kept them in nearly all of their games of late, including a big road win against Iona in their last match.

App State ML (+155)- App State is starting to play better ball again winning two of three and I think they have a good chance against a struggling GSU team that seems lost without their PG Willie Powers. GSU has gotten taken apart in their last two games and their offense has struggled since he went down and with their porous defense that won't result in many wins going forward.

Niagara ML (Even)- Revenge spot for Niagara and I think they are the much better team here. In the first meeting their 98th ranked offense was held to just 65 points and I think they make adjustments and score much better tonight. Iona is on a two-game slide and their lack of offense should be their undoing tonight.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Excellent start to the week.

Capped and grabbed most of the lines last night.

No time for writes today and I will update my record tomorrow.

All -110

Two Units
Rutgers +16.5
Iowa State +13
Bradley -2.5

One Unit
Towson +14
Kentucky -10.5
Hofstra +12
Akron -8.5
Toledo/Kent State Under 126
Purdue/Ohio State Over 129.5
Maryland/UNC Under 159
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Great start to the week and took a little bit of a step back last night on two tough losses to end the day in Iowa State and Bradley.

Lots of plays, but I am going to have brief writes out of superstition since I seemling always do better with writes than without.

GL to all!

Four Units- 1-0 +3.73 units
Three Units- 19-17 +1.25 units
Two Units- 92-86 -0.56 units
One Unit- 151-174 -30.31 units

YTD- 263-277 -25.89 units

All -110

Three Units
Duke -4- Duke may very well be the best team in the land, but they are still looking for a real defining win and I think they beat Clemson by DD tonight. Duke unlike years past plays excellent defense, the best in DE, and I think Clemson is way overranked and reality wins out tonight.

Two Units
Tulsa -1- Marshall is a young team that is really in a rut, where as Tulsa is a far better team than most realize. Tulsa plays hounding defense at 28th in DE and I think they are great value tonight playing a struggling young team.

Notre Dame -2.5- Notre Dame is a desperate team right now and I think they will pick up the win tonight. Cincy has shown no ability to beat teams that can score the ball and ND despite porous defense is still a very good offensive team ranked 10th in OE.

LSU -6.5- I just can't see UGA sticking around. LSU has played the best of any team in this conference in league play and Georgia is a program that is lost right now. LSU has weapons at 36th in OE to really separate against a UGA team that can't score at just 301st in OE.

Texas -4.5- Huge game for the Horns as they can ill afford to drop back to back home games. Mizzou is a much better team than people think, but their offense has sputtered on the road and Texas won't get lit up again tonight as they rank 14th in DE. Texas has the athletes and experience to offset the style of Missouri and I think Texas wins by DD.

One Unit
Iowa/Indiana Over 121- Crean doesn't have the weapons to win in a drag it out pace so even shorthanded this IU team runs a bit ranked 131st in pace. Iowa isn't a bad offensive team when they play against equal or inferior athletes and their 73rd ranked offense should have a good night tonight.

Houston/Central Florida Under 145.5- UCF doesn't have the athletes to make this into a track meet and I think they will control the pace like they normally do at just 179th in pace. Houston is a stout defense and I think this game will be played in the 60's.

Ball State +13.5- Ball State is atop the standings in their side of the MAC and I think they put forth a solid effort tonight. This game will be slow and ugly, but Ball State plays good defense and unless Miami separates early I think the Cardinal plays them tough.

James Madison/Georgia State Over 123.5- Major conflict in style here, but I think JMU can get anybody to run as they even got William and Mary to run with them. JMU has gone well over this total by at least 4 points in their last 9 CAA games and I think GSU with the way their season as gone will run enough to cover this tonight.

Tennessee -4- Don't really trust Pearl's bunch all that much but this is a game they should and need to win. Arkansas is young and really not that good. The Vols are the far superior offense at 22nd in OE and they are too mature of a team for the Hogs to handle coming off a big win.

Creighton -1.5- Creighton is peaking late like usual and they are in a revenge spot here as Drake as been their only blemish in four games. Creighton is the far better team and Drake's 172nd ranked defense as been the culprit on their MVC slide.

Illinois St./SIU Over 127.5- SIU is not the team of the past in style as they are not that good of a defensive team and neither team ranks in the top 100 in DE. Watched most of their first meeting and there was too much open court play for this not to go over unless there is real poor shooting.

Texas A&M/Oklahoma Over 137- The first meeting was the lowest total points scored in any Big 12 game for the Sooners, but I think that is more than built into the line tonight. OU is a great offensive team, ranked 4th in OE and they run up the points at home. The Aggies are starting to click offensively and I think this game gets into the mid-140's.

Nebraska/Colorado Over 120.5- Colorado is starting to play more competitivly and I think that is the difference here tonight. CU is playing better offense than they have in the past and they should keep this game close where you get the 6-8 point late bump to push the game over.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Just a hair over even for the week.

Going to forget about my record until Monday and just cap.

Another big night of hoops, GL to all!

All -110 execept one ML

Two Units
Arizona -4- With Oregon State's recent success will breed further focus on their part of their opponent. Arizona is starting to come together after sweeping the Washington schools at home. Their offense with Budinger and Hill I think will be too much for the Beavers to contend with as the Wildcats are ranked 25th in OE.

Wisconsin -3.5- Wisconsin is on a horrific streak, but I think they will play the best game of their year tonight. Wisconsin actually is a very strong offensive team at 19th in OE, it is their defense that has been their demise. Illinois' lack of offense on the road has really hurt them and you have to score to win at the Kohl Center and I think the Badgers beat them tonight.

Washington/Cal Over 151.5- Washington seems to get into a track meet on a nightly basis and they have got ASU to run with them. They now rank 11th in pace and Cal isn't a slow team themselves. The teams both rank in the top 30 in OE and I think there is very good value on the over in this game.

One Unit
Georgia Tech +9- GT is just a slightly less good version of FSU as both teams are constructed and perform at similar levels in both OE and DE. GT has played competitively with everyone they have gone up against because they have good athletes that really defend and clog the paint. I just don't see FSU separating against this team.

Penn State +4.5- Penn State is a team that has really impressed me and they are a solid team with great veteran leadership. They are the better team than Michigan as they are the better offensive and defensive team and have better athletes. The only thing that is holding me back from a bigger play is a hangover after the big win at MSU.

Valpo/Wright State Under 111.5- Wright State is starting to click and their defense at home of late has just been ridciulous. Valpo is a team that is continuing to improve and play hard and I think that supports this under. Tough to take the under in a game set this low, but I am just not sure Valpo gets to 50 tonight.

Charleston/Western Carolina Over 154- Charleston is coming off a sad home offensive performance where they mustered just 53 points against Elon. Tonight you get two team that play no defense, both ranked worse than 285th in DE and with the pace being there I expect the winner to climb into the 80's.

Chattanooga ML +105- Wrong team is favored here to me. Chattanooga is the more mature team that has better size and athletes. Wofford like many SoCon teams play horrible defense at 313th and I think the Mocs get a big road win tonight.

Citadel +5- I really like how the Citadel program is turning around and they have now won five straight games. Their pace really throws a lot of teams off in this league and the poor defense that most play like App State really gets exploited in the halfcourt. Citadel will be a live dog throughout and I wouldn't be surprised if they made their streak 6.

Temple +9- Xavier is as hot as anyone in CBB, but I really like Temple to push them tonight. Temple is a very balanced offensive and defensive team with some real good athletes. Also with a guy like Christmas on the floor they can stick around if only he gets off.

Rhode Island -3- The Roadies are starting to put it together winning their last 3 and Charlotte looks to have mostly given up on the season. Rhode Island can really separate against teams like Charlotte if they aren't ready to play and I just don't see Charlotte being able to keep up with the Rams 20th ranked offense.

Seton Hall -5- Seton Hall has now won two games in a row and the Johnnies on the road have been real bad so far in Big East play. The Johnnies just can't score well enough at 171st in OE to compete. Seton Hall has a lot more veteran pieces and I think they win their third in a row by DD.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Had a winning day yesterday and hope for the same the rest of the weekend.

Going with these five tonight.

Two Units
Canisus/Fairfield Over 128.5 (-110)- Pace will be the name of the game here. Fairfield has been a stone cold under of late, but Canisus who ranks 83rd in pace are especially fast paced at home. Fairfield is a slower team, but they can score ranked 150th in OE. I think this game will also be close and within fouling distance late which can only help.

St. Peter's +16.5 (-110)-Spreads like this have been very rare in the MAAC all year and I think this is set too high. SPU is a young team that is starting to get better and have not lost a game like this for a long time. Niagara has a far bigger game than this against Fairfield over the weekend and I think they may not bring their top effort tonight.

One Unit
South Florida +9.5 (-110)- I think the odd scheduling quirk will really help USF here tonight. In their only other Friday Big East game they took Syracuse to the wire and lost by 5. Marquette is riding high now and will get the Bulls best shot tonight. USF's pace of 304th will keep the score low and I think they will really push Marquette tonight.

Dartmouth ML (-105)- Dartmouth isn't very good, but they are playing better of late winners of 2 of 3 and now they get a Brown team that is really struggling. Brown has lost 4 in a row and they play brutal defense at 323rd in DE and now their offense is stagnating as well. I think Dartmouth continues thier mini hot streak tonight.

Harvard -4.5 (-110)- Both teams are riding losing streaks going into this rivalry game, but I think Harvard has too much firepower for Yale. Yale has scored a combined 78 points in thier last 2 games, where as Harvard led by Lin are ranked 172nd in OE and I think Ammaker will have them ready to play tonight and they win this one by DD.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Good luck TB, think your right on with the Dartmouth/Brown gm. Brown is the stain that thier name implies.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Could use a solid day today. Here is what I have so far and I will add some later night games later this afternoon.

GL to all!

All -110

Three Units
Loyola MD -3.5- Loyola just had their six-game winning streak snapped in their last game, but they have had six days to get ready for this game and I think they take care of business here. Manhattan doesn't match up well with teams that can score and the Greyhounds rank 167th in OE. Loyola won the first meeting by 4 and I think they grab this game by DD.

Two Units
Siena -5- Last landmine game for Siena before they close the regular season with three straight road games. Rider has some nice pieces, but they don't have the experience, nor play enough defense at 210th in DE to beat Siena. When focused Siena can wipe away any team in this league and I think based on their future schedule they show up and win by DD today.

Chattanooga -6- Furman at times can rise up and play well at home, but I think the talent difference is too much today. Chattanooga has won 7 of 9 conference games and they beat Furman by 27 points in the first meeting. The Mocs can score, ranked 158th in OE, and I think they have too much experience and firepower for Furman not to lose by DD.

Cincy +11- A little gun shy to back the Bearcats after their offensive meltdown cost me a cover last week at Villanova. Cincy though is starting to come together and I don't have confidence at all that the Hoyas right now can separate from anyone.

Miami FL +14- Miami is a team that when they play their best can compete with anyone and I think they get Duke at a good time because you know the loss to Clemson was a punch in the face and we will see how they respond. Miami can score, ranked 21st in OE and I think with their veteran leadership and experience they will push the Dukies here as the better athletes are on the side of the Canes.

Kansas State +3.5- Kansas State is a much better team than their national perception would indicate and they are the far better team here but in a tough spot. I think the game will be close throughout because KSU plays solid defense at 30th in DE and also they have a major backcourt advantage with Pullen and Clemente which should allow them to stay live throughout the game and I was tempted to grab the ML.

Cornell -7- Cornell got a shock to the system last night as they lost by 20 points at Princeton, but that makes me like this game more. They will be thrown right back into the Ivy mix if they lose tonight, but I can't see the 109th ranked offense putting up anywhere close to 41 points again.

One Unit
Fordham +13- Pretty simple play here for me. GW hasn't won a game since December 23rd and now they are laying 13 points. I don't care how bad Fordham has been this year, they have been more competitive of late and GW is not built like a team that can pull away from anyone.

Nebraska +3.5- This is a tough spot for Texas coming of back to back losses going to a tough place to play and a team that plays great defense with no answer at PG. Texas now ranks just 83rd in OE and Nebraska hasn't pulled off their minor upset yet at home and I think it could easily come today. Texas is a fragile team right now and I don't think they should be laying points to a well coached Husker squad.

South Carolina -13.5- The Gamecocks need to hold serve here and I think they undervalued by a few buckets. USC plays very solid defense at 42nd and the Bulldogs simply don't score as they rank 298th in OE! USC has a lot of playmakers on the perimeter which UGA can't defend and I expect a 20-point win.

Florida State +9.5- Big oppourtunity game for the 'Noles to nearly clinch their bid and I think they play well today. Clemson has never been a team that is a model of maturity and it will be interesting to see how they respond after their big win. FSU usually always stays in games because of their stout 15th ranked defense and they have the athletes to stay with the Tigers.

Charleston +16- Charleston is coming off back to back clunker performances, but they will get up for today's game. They pushed Davidson to the brink in the first meeting eventually losing by 4 points. Charleston unlike most Socon teams has the offensive talent, ranked 92nd in OE to score with the Wildcats and I don't anticipate a blowout here.

Citadel +5.5- Citadel is playing as well as anyone outside of Davidson in this league, winners of 6 straight. These two teams are very close in ability and all metrics. WCU just doesn't defend well enough at 284th for me not to take the points with a hot team that won the first meeting by 14 points.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Here are my night plays.

All -110 except one ML

Two Units
Drake -3- Both teams have followed the same path in MVC play. Starting out hot and then simmering down. Drake is the better offensive team and I think they hold serve at home in this the first meeting of the year between the two teams. When both teams are struggling I will side with the home team to snap out of it.

Baylor -4- This is a must have game for the Bears if they want to Dance and the talent difference here and desperation is too much not to snag. Tech plays Baylor's up and down style but the offensive talent difference is very large. Baylor ranks 18th in OE where as Tech is just 121st. Baylor has talent and I think they will bring it tonight.

Memphis/Gonzaga Under 141- Pace could be the only undoing here, but you have two of the top 10 defenses in the land meeting up in a game. Gonzaga is not that fast of a team ranked 114th in pace and I just can't see Few trying to run with the Tigers. This line is inflated for a prime time game, but I think Gonzaga holds the pace down and this falls in the mid-130's.

One Unit
New Mexico State/Nevada Over 147.5- NM State routinely plays game in the 80's and I think you may get that again tonight. The first meeting was at 150 with OT, but neither team plays good defense at 119th or below for each and both teams have a lot of scoring weapons. In a close game too I see some late fouling and the value is on the over.

Wichita St. +5- The Shockers are a young team that is starting to find itself winning 5 of their last 6 games. Both teams struggle to score, but Evansville really struggles at just 247th in OE. This game should be low scoring and ugly and I just don't see Evansville separting from WSU in a game that could come down to the last possession.

UNCG/Ga. Southern Over 139.5- Defense won't be the name of the game here as you get the 311th and 329th ranked defenses in the land. The loss of Willie Powers won't be magnified here as GSU should be able to score with ease and I think they will separate enough here to really play in the open court.

Northern Arizona ML +110- EWU just snapped a six-game skid against lowly Sacramento State and I just think NAU is worth a shot here as they are the better team. They won the first matchup by 23 points and the offense of NAU that ranks 136th in OE has too much firepower for an EWU team that really struggles to score.

St. Marys/Santa Clara Under 127.5- Big chance for Santa Clara to get a big home win and they way will do it will be to make it slow and have St. Mary's try to score in the halfcourt without Mills. Santa Clara can't score at 224th in OE so they will need to use their usual pace to stay in it and I see a game where the winner falls in the low 60's.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Not a bad day yesterday, spun some profits. Will get my glorious record all up-to-date tomorrow.

Here are my early few plays and I will be back in a bit with the rest of my action for the day.

Two Units
LSU -12- Another revenge spot here as Alabama has won six straight SEC games after losing to 'Bama to open conference play. These programs are going in opposite directions as LSU has been the most impressive team in the SEC over the last month and I think they win this game by 20 points. They can really score at 36th in OE and the Tide especially now don't defend at just 153th in DE.

One Unit
Purdue ML +105- Illinois has created rather predictable formula, when their home Big 12 games and lose the road ones of late. I think that changes today as Purdue is in a revenge spot against the Illini and the Boilers are also probably steaming from their last loss (no pun intended). Purdue is better at both offense and defense, along with better athletes and I think they are good value here.

Dayton/Charlotte Under 128.5- Value play her as I think this total is set a few buckets too high. Neither team is ranked in the top 175 in OE and Dayton which is the better team prefers an even slower pace than Charlotte. Dayton plays great defense, ranked 12th in the land and I just can't see either team getting to 70 in this game.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

One 1:30 EST and I am finishing up capping the rest of the day

Two Units
Louisville -10.5 (-110)- Just not a good spot for the Johnnies. I'm not sure how they could score on Louisville's #1 ranked defense if they weren't hot coming off an embarassing home loss to UConn. SJU ranks just 186th in OE and the bad news for them is Louisville handled Rutgers and South Florida, both on the road, very easily and I expect the same fate for the Johnnies here today.
 
T

truebluefan

EOG Addicted
Re: Week Thirteen Plays...

Last Five Plays of the Day

Three Units
Temple -4 (-110)- Big game for both teams that are a half game apart in the A-10 standings. Temple also will be seeking revenge for an earlier season loss. Rhode Island to me doesn't play good enough defense to beat a solid, balanced team on the road. The Rams rank just 148th in DE and I think Temple takes care of them today.

Two Units
Wisconsin/Penn State Over 126.5 (-110)- Both teams here just are not very good defensive team as PSU ranks 105th in DE and the Badgers at 89th. Penn State has gone over 130 in three of their last four home games and I just think it will only take one teams defense to play poorly as usual to get this one over.

Washington ML (-105)- Big game for the Huskies as they can ill-afford to get swept in the Bay area if they want a chance to win the Pac-10. I just think Washington will score too easily on Stanford to lose. The Cardinal ranks just 78th in DE and Brockman should have a heyday on the offensive glass against an undersized team. Washington is very good value here in my eyes.

One Unit
St. Joes/UMass Under 139 (-110)- UMass isn't quite the run and gun team they were under Ford last year and I think this total is set too high. SJU ranks just 264th in pace and I don't see them wanting to get this into a running match. Both teams are also very average offensively both ranked below 100 in OE.

BC/Wake Forest Under 150 (-110)- Two reasons I like this play. First of all after two horrible defensive efforts, I think Wake gets back to playing defense like they have all year ranked 6th in DE so far this year. Also BC really isn't that fast paced and I think they will try to run their flex and not get into a running match as the Eagles rank just 117th in pace.
 
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