VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

[Ned]

I got a message from Munson with a solid idea, and that is playing on teams in their last home game. This is where utilizing the manpower of a forum can help everyone beat the books.

Seniors want to go out strong in their last home game, so the premise is solid.

Here is what is needed. We need to have volunteers go and back test data for the proceeding years, I already did 2007-08. I'd like to take this back 5 years and see what we find. It will take about 1 and a half to 2 hours to do, so if you can make that commitment, then pick a year, and report your results in this thread.

DATA NEEDED:

Team in their last home game against the spread as a double-digit favorite, as a home dog, and as a singe digit favorite.

YEARS NEEDED:

2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04

If you have the time to do this please post your name next to the year your taking, and post your results when complete

HERE ARE THE RESULTS FROM 2007-08:

HOME FAVORITES OF 10+: 33-21 61.1%
HOME FAV. SINGLE DIGITS: 68-49 58.1%
HOME DOGS: 23-30 43.4%
------------------------------------------
ALL GAMES 124-100-7 55.3%
ELIMINATING HOME DOGS: 101-70 59.1%


****-- I left out pushes since they dont change the results either way

GENTLEMEN:

This is how you beat the books!!! You blitz them with a fluery of games before they even know what happened, and hit 60% on many many plays. If you thought bracketbuster weekend was fun, this has the potential, if the numbers hold up to play 170 or so games over the last week of the season.

If you have time and can back test the data, please get on board, united we can kill the books here! Let's do it!

If you want to do it, but don't know where to find the data to do so, PM me and I will direct you to where you can, just not sure I can post other website URL's here, don't want to violate the forum rules.

If you see all 5 years are taken by someone, and you still want to assist, then even better we can go back 6,7,8 yrs, and have a secure database of results. So if all the years are claimed, start with 2002-2003, and keep going!

Let's get this done, time is short!

Thanks Munson!

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

8 games tonight, Ned. They are listed in the CBB room under "time to check each team's schedule". I am busy finding all the games that fit the criteria, and it is taking lots of time since I have to look at every college team's schedule. If I get done with the list of teams to watch, I'll report back and ask the quickest way to backtest. Thanks for taking the ball and running with it.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

BTW, Nedrow reminded me of this, I can't take credit for it. I know I had heard of it before, and thought it did well.

 

[chazzy]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I wouldn't mind helping out with some of the backtesting, but I won't be able to get started on it until this evening. This sounds like a very interesting concept. I am also not sure where I would be able to find this info. So someone would have to lead me in the right direction. Let me know what I can do to help. Thanks.

 

[Ned]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

ok I have now done 2007-08 season and the 2006-07 season.

2007-08:

ALL GAMES 124-100
HOME DOGS 23-30
HOME FAVORITE 101-70
HOME FAVORITE 1-9.5 68-49
HOME FAVORITE 10+ 33-21

2006-07:

ALL GAMES 130-101
HOME DOG 36-28
HOME FAVORITE 94-73
HOME FAVORITE 1-9.5 61-51
HOME FAVORITE 10+ 33-22

2 YRS COMBINED DATA:

ALL GAMES 254-201 55.8%
HOME DOG 59-58 50.4%
HF BY 1-9.5 129-100 56.3%
HF BY 10+ 66-43 60.6%


It would appear with just 2 data samples the money is in the double-digit home favorites, which is usually not where the money is. It would also appear that home dogs are the worst bet, and only losing propsition of any of the examples, which is again backward from normal games!

 

[mbtbnk]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

In regards to the home dog being worst in this case, do you think it has to do with that team is obviously not that good and just looking for the season to be over with.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

In regards to the home dog being worst in this case, do you think it has to do with that team is obviously not that good and just looking for the season to be over with.

I was thinking the same thing, along with the fact that in many cases, the team they are playing may be shooting for a tournament bid. Normal motivations may be out of kilter in this situation.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Ned, teams fitting the system tonight are-----------

Ark St
Long Beach
Cal-River
UL Laf
Loy-Md
W Kent'y

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Adding Michigan. Note well, the Wolverines and Loyola-Maryland are home dogs.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Games that have already occurred this season include-----------

Cle St -14.5 on 2/18 (L)
Drake -6 on 2/25 (L)
Drexel -1 on 2/25 (L)
E Kent'y -2 on 2/21 (W)

Home Dogs
E Ill +5 on 2/18 (L)

More to follow, just wanted you to know there have been several games missed.

 

[Finance]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

:+textinb3
Since the non-home dogs are 1-3 I'd say we missed the right ones...

Thanks for all of the work on this guys - let's see if it pans out....

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Last night featured a win for the system by Evansville -4.:smoking2:

Also, found a loss for another home dog, Fla Atl +5 on 2/21.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Throw out Furman, they were a dog on 2/21 and pushed.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Ga St won last night at +1.

 

[Ned]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

op:

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Ill St -6.5 on 2/24 (L)
Ill-Chi -5 on 2/21 (W)

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

op:

I'm just doing them all manually in alphabetical order. I did all of tonight's games this morning so we wouldn't miss any more. I'll post tomorrow night's games in the morning if it looks like I can't finish in a reasonable time before the tipoffs.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I'm at work, I ordinarily don't do stuff like this so slow.:+textinb3Just finished the few "J" schools and found that James Madison lost last night as a 2.5 point dog. So, the home dogs are taking the worst of it so far this year as well, it seems.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Got two winners that puts it over .500 so far. Manhattan -2 vs. Rider on 2/15 (W) and Marist -7.5 vs Hartford on 2/21 (W). 5-4 for home faves playing last game on their court among games checked so far.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Montana -6 on 2/21 another winner. 6-4 for the system in games that are out of the barn. Completing the "M's" we have a loser with Morehead St -19.5 on 2/14, bringing the record to 6-5 halfway through the alphabet.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Interesting trip through the "N's" as we had 2 home dogs cover (N Orleans +2 on 2/19 and UNC Wilm +12.5 on 2/25) and two home faves fail (N Texas -3.5 on 2/21 and N Arizona -17 on 2/21). Home dogs are now 3-3 with 2 pushes and home faves are 6-7.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

No good news in the "O's" either, as Oregon St covered as a 5-point dog on 2/21, and Old Dominion failed to cover as a 12-point fave over Wm & Mary last night. Either we are catching this just at the right time, or the system is suffering a down year. Still lots of schools left, we are 6-8 on faves and 4-3 on dogs at the moment.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

P and R are completed. S will take a while, may not get it until tomorrow. In the "P's" we had losses by Portland -20 on 2/21 and Portland St -13 last night. The lone winner was another dog, Providence vs. Pitt two nights ago at +9. So, dogs are 5-3 and faves are 6-10.

p.s. no relevant results in the "R" schools.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Final report of the afternoon, just did the "S's" and got a mixed bag of results. St. Mary's -4 on 2/21 and Samford -6 on 2/14 were winners, but Siena -7.5 lost on 2/21 as did S Alabama -12.5 on 2/21 also. The dogs were a winner (San Fran +2 on 2/21) and a loser (SEMO +4 on 2/21). Totals so far=favorites 8-12, dogs 6-4.

 

[Ned]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I have gotten anout 70% through the 2005-06 season, and this system tanks bigtime!

FAVS are 47-72 so far 39.4%

HOME DOGS 22-22

Be VERY CAREFUL IF YOUR PLAYING THIS SOMEONE IS GONNA GET HURT!!!

 

[Ned]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

ok I have now done 2007-08 season and the 2006-07 season.

2007-08:

ALL GAMES 124-100
HOME DOGS 23-30
HOME FAVORITE 101-70
HOME FAVORITE 1-9.5 68-49
HOME FAVORITE 10+ 33-21

2006-07:

ALL GAMES 130-101
HOME DOG 36-28
HOME FAVORITE 94-73
HOME FAVORITE 1-9.5 61-51
HOME FAVORITE 10+ 33-22

2 YRS COMBINED DATA:

ALL GAMES 254-201 55.8%
HOME DOG 59-58 50.4%
HF BY 1-9.5 129-100 56.3%
HF BY 10+ 66-43 60.6%


It would appear with just 2 data samples the money is in the double-digit home favorites, which is usually not where the money is. It would also appear that home dogs are the worst bet, and only losing propsition of any of the examples, which is again backward from normal games!

I have done all but 3 conferences in 2005-06 and I have seen enough to know this is not a good system:

2005-06:

ALL GAMES: 81-116 41.1%
H DOGS 24-27 47.1%
HF BY 1-9.5 41-64 39.0%
HF BY 10+ 16-25 39.9%

ALL 3 YRS COMBINED:

ALL GAMES: 335-317 51.4%
H DOGS: 83-85 49.4%
HF 1-9.5: 170-164 50.9%
HF BY 10+ 82-68 54.7%

EVERYTHING HERE IS REVERTING BACK TO THE MEAN. GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY THIS, BUT IT IS COMPLETELY INEFFECTIVE!!!!

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Sorry, Ned, looks like a lot of time and effort for no good cause. I was concerned over my small sample from this year, but your 2006 figures really disappointed me. Oh, well, nothing ventured, nothing gained. I'm going to finish this season and track it just for the hell of it. I have so much time invested already, I'd like to see how it turns out. Certainly I'm not going to bet blind, thanks for the update.

 

[babaoriley]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I, for one, am interested to see the results, Munson. Kudos to you and Ned for your hard work. Much appreciated.

a couple of the books seem to have caught onto this as a lot of the teams that fit the criteria have had minor line shifts working against them.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I, for one, am interested to see the results, Munson. Kudos to you and Ned for your hard work. Much appreciated.

a couple of the books seem to have caught onto this as a lot of the teams that fit the criteria have had minor line shifts working against them.

I'll post the plays and the results, Baba, shit, most of the work is done, I've tracked the schedules of well over 200 colleges now.:+textinb3Just pissed that I can't bet them like the Bracket Buster. There would have been over 200 plays during the next week or so.:doh1

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

I'm going to try and finish the backtest for this year this morning. The "T" schools provided no good news as Ten Tech -6.5 on 2/19 and Tenn Chatt -2.5 on 2/23 both failed to cover. I was so desperate for a winner that I will count Towson at a pick for a win on 2/25. I now show 9-14 for faves counting Towson and 6-4 for the dogs. Last night we had a 3-4 night. Faves were Ark St (L), Long Beach (L), Cal River (W), W Kent'y (W) and UL Laf (L). Dogs were Michigan (W) and Loy-Md (L). Includiong those games, we now have totals of 7-5 for the home dogs and 11-17 for the faves.

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Almost done, the "U's" and "V's" provided no missed plays. I hope Ned will complete the season with the bad news so we have a complete picture of 4 seasons after this one is completed.

 

[Finance]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

FWIW, I put in 3 yesterday (had to leave before you guys had this blowing up....) and went 2-1, taking the DD fave (W Ky) and fading the 2 home dogs, so I made a little coin from your efforts, even if no further plays appear warranted - just wanted to give a little thanks, as I doubt I would have played them otherwise (especially the DD fave)....

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Finally finished, a lot of time spent for all this bad news. The system is getting killed this year as well. I can only agree with Ned that the 2 years of good results were an aberration, and that we are 'regressing to the mean' big-time. The study of the rest of the schools featured a win by Wisc GB -12 on 2/18 offset by losses with Wichita St -9.5 on 2/24 and Youngstown St -8.5 on 2/21. The lone underdog in the last group, Wisconsin Mil, also lost at +2 on 2/21.

Final tally for games already in the books = Faves W12 L19 Dogs W7 L6.

This includes games played last night.

 

[NattyBumpo]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Time well spent gentleman. Money saved is money earned. Thanks for the effort. Just as in most systems, there will be times playing a team on senior night is a very good play, and others times it is not, but at least we now know that to play them blindly is a no can do. :cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: VOLUNTEER BACKTESTERS NEEDED

Thanks for the kind words Natty and Finance.:cheers