Neither one of these teams come at you on offense, as Memphis is young, has some shooters, but works within their means, which is half-court. The Sixers are also the same type of team, neither of these teams are explosive, and Memphis defensive numbers are a product of an offense that doesn't get up and down the court, so they arrive in the middle of the pack defensively, by default. There is a big difference what happens when they get at home vs teams that also show the desire to play slow, with a good defensive acumen and commitment. The numbers show both these teams in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored per game. It has been missed by the oddsmakers, and that is where I move in.
Let's take a look at what I see here:
I'm going to breakdown Memphis at home vs the bottom feeders on offense in the NBA, those teams in the bottom 10 in points scored per game. I will put them in 2 groups, and you'll see why, when I'm finished.
GROUP A (NORMAL GAMES WITHOUT SOMETHING FREAKY HAPPENING):
THE NEGATIVE #'s BESIDE THE SCORE IS POINTS BELOW THE TOTAL
DETROIT 79-87 -11
LA CLIP 93-81 -25.5
NO 85-80 -21
NO 84-91 -19
SA 80-91 -14.5
TOR 78-70 -50
MIA 102-86 -5.5
---------------------------
7 GAMES -146.5 -20.93 AVG BELOW THE POSTED TOTAL!!!
GROUP B ( FLUKE GAMES)
CHARLOTTE 83-112 +12
LA CLIP 105-126 +27.5
------------------------------
2 GAMES +39.5 +19.75 AVG ABOVE THE TOTAL
OK LETS LOOK AT GROUP B:
The Charlotte game that went over the total by 12 points was a complete fluke. Charlotte shot a franchise high 66% from the field in that game. To put that in perspective, if they shot 59% in that game, it goes UNDER!!!
LA CLIPPERS GAME:
The Clippers shot 59% in that game and an amazing 55.2% from 3. That wasn't 55.2% of a few 3's, they jacked up 29 of them in that game, and hit an amazing 16 of them. At the same time Charlotte hit 49% from the field in that game, and there was a total of 62 free throws taken!
So the 2 games that got OVER the total in "like" games were complete flukes! Could the same thing happen here? Of course it could, but handicapping a game isn't about what is least likely to happen it is about what is most likely to happen.
When circumstances are normal in this type of game, the total is off by 21 points a game! If it takes someone hitting 66% to push it over, when even 59% wouldn't have gotten it done, that says it all right there, it takes a lot to happen to reach the number posted here. The odds in this game are tilted against the books in a big way
PHILA/MEMPHIS UNDER 191.5
Let's take a look at what I see here:
I'm going to breakdown Memphis at home vs the bottom feeders on offense in the NBA, those teams in the bottom 10 in points scored per game. I will put them in 2 groups, and you'll see why, when I'm finished.
GROUP A (NORMAL GAMES WITHOUT SOMETHING FREAKY HAPPENING):
THE NEGATIVE #'s BESIDE THE SCORE IS POINTS BELOW THE TOTAL
DETROIT 79-87 -11
LA CLIP 93-81 -25.5
NO 85-80 -21
NO 84-91 -19
SA 80-91 -14.5
TOR 78-70 -50
MIA 102-86 -5.5
---------------------------
7 GAMES -146.5 -20.93 AVG BELOW THE POSTED TOTAL!!!
GROUP B ( FLUKE GAMES)
CHARLOTTE 83-112 +12
LA CLIP 105-126 +27.5
------------------------------
2 GAMES +39.5 +19.75 AVG ABOVE THE TOTAL
OK LETS LOOK AT GROUP B:
The Charlotte game that went over the total by 12 points was a complete fluke. Charlotte shot a franchise high 66% from the field in that game. To put that in perspective, if they shot 59% in that game, it goes UNDER!!!
LA CLIPPERS GAME:
The Clippers shot 59% in that game and an amazing 55.2% from 3. That wasn't 55.2% of a few 3's, they jacked up 29 of them in that game, and hit an amazing 16 of them. At the same time Charlotte hit 49% from the field in that game, and there was a total of 62 free throws taken!
So the 2 games that got OVER the total in "like" games were complete flukes! Could the same thing happen here? Of course it could, but handicapping a game isn't about what is least likely to happen it is about what is most likely to happen.
When circumstances are normal in this type of game, the total is off by 21 points a game! If it takes someone hitting 66% to push it over, when even 59% wouldn't have gotten it done, that says it all right there, it takes a lot to happen to reach the number posted here. The odds in this game are tilted against the books in a big way
PHILA/MEMPHIS UNDER 191.5
op:
