Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
- Thread starter Ned
- Start date
diogee
Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
<table class="tablehead" style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); vertical-align: top; width: 100%; line-height: normal;" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Foul on Gerard Anderson</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-67</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-68</td><td valign="top">D.J. Posley made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-69</td><td valign="top">D.J. Posley made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-69</td><td valign="top">Foul on Paul Roemer</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon made Free Throw.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">61-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon made Free Throw.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td colspan="3" align="center">UC Santa Barbara 30 Second Timeout.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top">Foul on Marcio Lassiter</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-70</td><td valign="top">Paul Roemer made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top">Paul Roemer made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:23</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon Turnover.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:22</td><td colspan="3" align="center">UC Santa Barbara 30 Second Timeout.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top">Foul on Marcio Lassiter</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-72</td><td valign="top">James Nunnally made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-73</td><td valign="top">James Nunnally made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:11</td><td valign="top">Chris Rhymes made Two Point Layup. Assisted by Kwasi Mensah.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">64-73</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:00</td><td colspan="3" align="center">End Game</td></tr></tbody></table>
Yeah look at this garbage:
<table class="tablehead" style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-size: 10px; font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); vertical-align: top; width: 100%; line-height: normal;" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Foul on Gerard Anderson</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-67</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-68</td><td valign="top">D.J. Posley made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-69</td><td valign="top">D.J. Posley made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">60-69</td><td valign="top">Foul on Paul Roemer</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon made Free Throw.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">61-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon made Free Throw.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:29</td><td colspan="3" align="center">UC Santa Barbara 30 Second Timeout.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top">Foul on Marcio Lassiter</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-69</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-70</td><td valign="top">Paul Roemer made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:26</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top">Paul Roemer made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:23</td><td valign="top">Josh Akognon Turnover.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:22</td><td colspan="3" align="center">UC Santa Barbara 30 Second Timeout.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top">Foul on Marcio Lassiter</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-71</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-72</td><td valign="top">James Nunnally made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:21</td><td valign="top"> </td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">62-73</td><td valign="top">James Nunnally made Free Throw.</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:11</td><td valign="top">Chris Rhymes made Two Point Layup. Assisted by Kwasi Mensah.</td><td align="center" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">64-73</td><td valign="top"> </td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);"><td valign="top" width="50">0:00</td><td colspan="3" align="center">End Game</td></tr></tbody></table>
Superskrub
EOG Enthusiast
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
@Ned
I am actually having a huge succes by betting under for the first half, on the games you pick as under.
Last night, you put out the picks, but warned about betting the games. So I reduced the betting size a bit, and split the bets in half, putting one half on under for 1st half and one half on under for 2nd half. I went 4-0-1 on the first half bets (missed the first game) and 2-3 on the full game bets (also missed the first game here).
I think I am like 7-1-1 on the 1st half bets.
@Ned
I am actually having a huge succes by betting under for the first half, on the games you pick as under.
Last night, you put out the picks, but warned about betting the games. So I reduced the betting size a bit, and split the bets in half, putting one half on under for 1st half and one half on under for 2nd half. I went 4-0-1 on the first half bets (missed the first game) and 2-3 on the full game bets (also missed the first game here).
I think I am like 7-1-1 on the 1st half bets.
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
FRIDAY PLAYS FOR THOSE THAT MUST:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140
MISS ST/SC OVER 150
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER ????
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5
ALA/TENN OVER ????
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER ????
FLA/ALABAMA OVER
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER ????
8 PLAYS SO FAR, MAY BE A COUPLE MORE
FRIDAY PLAYS FOR THOSE THAT MUST:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140
MISS ST/SC OVER 150
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER ????
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5
ALA/TENN OVER ????
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER ????
FLA/ALABAMA OVER
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER ????
8 PLAYS SO FAR, MAY BE A COUPLE MORE
ballwonder
EOG Master
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
Yeah I lost a little bit (.5) point on some. If I lose by a half today then so be it as I have enjoyed this entirely and now I am playing with house money and have reduced my wager size until the next upcoming system is posted by ned.
Yeah I lost a little bit (.5) point on some. If I lose by a half today then so be it as I have enjoyed this entirely and now I am playing with house money and have reduced my wager size until the next upcoming system is posted by ned.
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 LOSS
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 PUSH
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 WIN
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
1 ADDED PLAY:
HOLY CROSS +5
6PM UPDATE: 1-1-1 50.0%
ALL GAMES: 43-21 67.2%
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 LOSS
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 PUSH
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 WIN
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
1 ADDED PLAY:
HOLY CROSS +5
6PM UPDATE: 1-1-1 50.0%
ALL GAMES: 43-21 67.2%
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
8:30PM UPDATE:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 LOSS
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 PUSH
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 WIN
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 LOSS
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
1 ADDED PLAY:
HOLY CROSS +5 LOSS
6PM UPDATE: 1-3-1 25.0%
ALL GAMES: 43-23 65.2%
SINCE I PACKED IT IN: 7-7 50%
8:30PM UPDATE:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 LOSS
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 PUSH
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 WIN
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 LOSS
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
1 ADDED PLAY:
HOLY CROSS +5 LOSS
6PM UPDATE: 1-3-1 25.0%
ALL GAMES: 43-23 65.2%
SINCE I PACKED IT IN: 7-7 50%
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
My turn to express my appreciation, awe, and thanks for all of your efforts in putting together one of the most impressive performances I have ever seen.
You are a cross between Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and Billy Walters.
Talk about "walking the walk." And in a very selfish industry, talk about sharing.
You made a lot of people a lot of money.
I am ready for the "Ned seminar" this summer at the Mohegan Sun.
Two days of seminars conducted by yourself from 9 to 5, together with all of the casino amenities at night. It has to be worth at least 10% of what you made me between Bracketbuster and the last week with college conference championships.
I am dead serious. I think you could lead an amazing seminar....not so much revealing all of your systems which no one would expect you to do..... but to show how you go about creating new systems.
By the way, I knew Tony Torchia from long ago. I heard he coached baseball in Taiwan last summer, and like you said, was having a difficult time.
My turn to express my appreciation, awe, and thanks for all of your efforts in putting together one of the most impressive performances I have ever seen.
You are a cross between Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and Billy Walters.
Talk about "walking the walk." And in a very selfish industry, talk about sharing.
You made a lot of people a lot of money.
I am ready for the "Ned seminar" this summer at the Mohegan Sun.
Two days of seminars conducted by yourself from 9 to 5, together with all of the casino amenities at night. It has to be worth at least 10% of what you made me between Bracketbuster and the last week with college conference championships.
I am dead serious. I think you could lead an amazing seminar....not so much revealing all of your systems which no one would expect you to do..... but to show how you go about creating new systems.
By the way, I knew Tony Torchia from long ago. I heard he coached baseball in Taiwan last summer, and like you said, was having a difficult time.
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
I know I could run a great seminar, and thanks. I have done tons of public speaking in my life, a lot of it motivational.
My observations are just opinions, and expressed thoughts. Everyone has a different outlook on this, some expect to lose, but like the adrenlin rush, of putting a few sheckles down, and watching the game. Some are just flat out addicts, that have a bad habit, and it ends up costing them dearly. Some do a decent job of handicapping games, but mismanage their money, play too many games, or play teasers, parlays, and buy points, all of which are an ultimate death nell for a gambler, of course there are exceptions, but few and far between. The problem is your playing against a stacked deck, the odds are against you before you even start.
Most live day to day in this, when the outlook has to be a much broader spectrum. Most don't have a goal in mind, to get them out of the game, they keep trucking on, and thusly, end up giving it all back.
I'll bet to a man in here everyone can tell a story of a hot stretch they were on, and how much money was in their account, but at some point not long after, they are reloading without ever sniffing a dime!
Everything in life revolves around goals, not dreams! A dream is intangible, it is a ghost, you can't reach it, a goal is written down, with a map of direction to get there, and when you get there, your done, and the next goal is spawned, mapped out and relentlessly persued til its achieved.
I saw many opinions when this was hitting over 70%, about how the value was still there, it will continue to achieve. They are right, there is and was the liklihood it will, but there is something else I learned, and I strictly adhere to it.
I set a goal to achieve with this system, I reached it, and I do what I always have learned to do, reap and keep the reward, don't risk it, or you never had a goal to begin with. Greed does strange things to people, so I not only reap and keep, I share the reward with someone I care about, and a feel good feels even better. When you do things for yourself, and achieve them, it is a great empowerment, when you do things for yourself, and share them with someone close to you in your personal life, that's the true reward.
I don't want to get on my pedestal and start preaching here, I realize everyone has a different agenda, but if just one person reads this, and the light goes on, then they will appreciate the message for the rest of their life, and you know what, so won't I.
I'm not flawless, not by a longshot. I will win each and every year, you can count on that, but I will have a losing day, week, or month, or more, it is expected!
Since baseball season is approaching, here is a little homework, a premise, and I'd like to see someone go retrieve the results. I already know what they are.
The baseball trade deadline is August 1st. So what happens in baseball? The good teams, get better, because they pick up an extra pitcher, an extra bat, or more. The bad teams get worse, because they give up all their big names, for prospects. They also begin to experiment with minor leaguers to see what they need, and the team loses its spirit seeing management give up, so they go in the tank.
So how do you cash in on this? Any night after August 1st, where there is at least 4 games on the schedule, play on the biggest moneyline favorite, not on the moneyline, on the -1.5 runline.
Most of the time your laying odds like -1.5 -115 or -1.5 +110.
I'll save you the time:
AUGUST 2nd through August 31st:
26-4 86.7%
WHY STOP ON SEPT 1st?
Because teams start calling up minor leaguers and the rosters expand to 40 men. Other teams are 15 games ahead in the standings and begin to sit regulars at times, so the dynamics change.
ENJOY!
I know I could run a great seminar, and thanks. I have done tons of public speaking in my life, a lot of it motivational.
My observations are just opinions, and expressed thoughts. Everyone has a different outlook on this, some expect to lose, but like the adrenlin rush, of putting a few sheckles down, and watching the game. Some are just flat out addicts, that have a bad habit, and it ends up costing them dearly. Some do a decent job of handicapping games, but mismanage their money, play too many games, or play teasers, parlays, and buy points, all of which are an ultimate death nell for a gambler, of course there are exceptions, but few and far between. The problem is your playing against a stacked deck, the odds are against you before you even start.
Most live day to day in this, when the outlook has to be a much broader spectrum. Most don't have a goal in mind, to get them out of the game, they keep trucking on, and thusly, end up giving it all back.
I'll bet to a man in here everyone can tell a story of a hot stretch they were on, and how much money was in their account, but at some point not long after, they are reloading without ever sniffing a dime!
Everything in life revolves around goals, not dreams! A dream is intangible, it is a ghost, you can't reach it, a goal is written down, with a map of direction to get there, and when you get there, your done, and the next goal is spawned, mapped out and relentlessly persued til its achieved.
I saw many opinions when this was hitting over 70%, about how the value was still there, it will continue to achieve. They are right, there is and was the liklihood it will, but there is something else I learned, and I strictly adhere to it.
I set a goal to achieve with this system, I reached it, and I do what I always have learned to do, reap and keep the reward, don't risk it, or you never had a goal to begin with. Greed does strange things to people, so I not only reap and keep, I share the reward with someone I care about, and a feel good feels even better. When you do things for yourself, and achieve them, it is a great empowerment, when you do things for yourself, and share them with someone close to you in your personal life, that's the true reward.
I don't want to get on my pedestal and start preaching here, I realize everyone has a different agenda, but if just one person reads this, and the light goes on, then they will appreciate the message for the rest of their life, and you know what, so won't I.
I'm not flawless, not by a longshot. I will win each and every year, you can count on that, but I will have a losing day, week, or month, or more, it is expected!
Since baseball season is approaching, here is a little homework, a premise, and I'd like to see someone go retrieve the results. I already know what they are.
The baseball trade deadline is August 1st. So what happens in baseball? The good teams, get better, because they pick up an extra pitcher, an extra bat, or more. The bad teams get worse, because they give up all their big names, for prospects. They also begin to experiment with minor leaguers to see what they need, and the team loses its spirit seeing management give up, so they go in the tank.
So how do you cash in on this? Any night after August 1st, where there is at least 4 games on the schedule, play on the biggest moneyline favorite, not on the moneyline, on the -1.5 runline.
Most of the time your laying odds like -1.5 -115 or -1.5 +110.
I'll save you the time:
AUGUST 2nd through August 31st:
26-4 86.7%
WHY STOP ON SEPT 1st?
Because teams start calling up minor leaguers and the rosters expand to 40 men. Other teams are 15 games ahead in the standings and begin to sit regulars at times, so the dynamics change.
ENJOY!
ballwonder
EOG Master
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
God dam Ned another one for the notebook to write down. Thanks and keep them coming! Thanks again.
God dam Ned another one for the notebook to write down. Thanks and keep them coming! Thanks again.
Hawks Fan
EOG Enthusiast
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
Ned, thanks for all the hard work and info you are sharing... I learned a long time ago in life. DO NOT BE GREEDY!!! and regression to mean always happens no matter what at some point...
So when you suggested to stop playing I was already thinking, "how much more/longer can this go on for"?... So I stopped 2 days ago and kept all the profits...
Thanks once again... I think you should have your own forum on this site where we can discuss different things handicapping and that is all that is discussed... Like a think tank for gambling, everybody throws things around and we all work together. You would be the leader/moderator...
Ned, thanks for all the hard work and info you are sharing... I learned a long time ago in life. DO NOT BE GREEDY!!! and regression to mean always happens no matter what at some point...
So when you suggested to stop playing I was already thinking, "how much more/longer can this go on for"?... So I stopped 2 days ago and kept all the profits...
Thanks once again... I think you should have your own forum on this site where we can discuss different things handicapping and that is all that is discussed... Like a think tank for gambling, everybody throws things around and we all work together. You would be the leader/moderator...
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
NFL:
What is the worst thing that can happen to an NFL team?
They get shutout, and completely embarassed at home, and the next week they are playing home again. Do you know what that is like for the players? These are professional athletes with great pride, the practice week is hell, the fan level of disenchantment is the greatest, the media is relentless, and guess what? The gambler is perusing the list of next weeks games, and he sees TEAM X shutout at home, not going near them, in fact I will play against them. The oddsmaker knows he has to pad the line to get any action on this dead team.
So what happens?
Since 1983 (my records begin there), they are 45-25 64.3% ATS!
WHY?
They come back pissed off, and play their guts out, and the lines are tainted, and the untouchable contrarian team wins!!
Noone likes to touch NFL exhibition games, I clean up! I have so many things that exploit the books during that time it is great.
THE GAMBLING CULTURE:
"I'd rather make my biggest wager of the year on the Superbowl"
I don't bet on those exhibition games they don't mean anything"
That my friends is a losing culture, how many times have you heard it?
So guess what. Follow the crowd, get the results of the crowd, break away from the crowd, and make a living!
The Superbowl is completely under a microscope, everyone is in on it, the NFL-X noone cares about! The money is around when noone cares! The books don't get charred, because the numbers are down, catch them with their pants down! Not when they are working overtime!
NFL:
What is the worst thing that can happen to an NFL team?
They get shutout, and completely embarassed at home, and the next week they are playing home again. Do you know what that is like for the players? These are professional athletes with great pride, the practice week is hell, the fan level of disenchantment is the greatest, the media is relentless, and guess what? The gambler is perusing the list of next weeks games, and he sees TEAM X shutout at home, not going near them, in fact I will play against them. The oddsmaker knows he has to pad the line to get any action on this dead team.
So what happens?
Since 1983 (my records begin there), they are 45-25 64.3% ATS!
WHY?
They come back pissed off, and play their guts out, and the lines are tainted, and the untouchable contrarian team wins!!
Noone likes to touch NFL exhibition games, I clean up! I have so many things that exploit the books during that time it is great.
THE GAMBLING CULTURE:
"I'd rather make my biggest wager of the year on the Superbowl"
I don't bet on those exhibition games they don't mean anything"
That my friends is a losing culture, how many times have you heard it?
So guess what. Follow the crowd, get the results of the crowd, break away from the crowd, and make a living!
The Superbowl is completely under a microscope, everyone is in on it, the NFL-X noone cares about! The money is around when noone cares! The books don't get charred, because the numbers are down, catch them with their pants down! Not when they are working overtime!
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
I don't need to be the leader, many sharp people here with math backgrounds, and capping skills, but it takes so much more than that, you have to be all of it, and then some, and work endlessly, and morphing with the changes.
One of the first things I did, years ago, was go to the bank, with 10 dollars and get 20 rolls of pennies. (that is 1000) I got home, and I opened all the rolls, and dumped them in a pail. I pulled them out one at a time. I recorded the sequence of heads and tails. I don't remember exactly, but I think the longest streak was 12 consecutive heads or tails.
What does that mean?
A gambler would think that means he is hot, which is absurd, it has nothing to do with it! it is expected! There would be streaks of 75-100 where I would get 57-58% of either heads or tails. It is expected from a 50% expectation. What did happen was also expected. When I finsihed the 1,000 pennies, it was always within the statistical expectation of 50% with a sample size of 1,000.
That is gambling 101, the fundemental expectation of a given sequence of events with a probability of 50%.
There will be 100% sequences, there will be longer sequences of 55% and higher, they are statistically expected!
The problem is gamblers that don't understand this mistake things to be otherwise, and get themselves in trouble.
I think someday I should write a book, but the problem is would the reader have the displine to listen, that is the most vital lesson of all. Remember, there is always another day, as long as your still in the game!
I don't need to be the leader, many sharp people here with math backgrounds, and capping skills, but it takes so much more than that, you have to be all of it, and then some, and work endlessly, and morphing with the changes.
One of the first things I did, years ago, was go to the bank, with 10 dollars and get 20 rolls of pennies. (that is 1000) I got home, and I opened all the rolls, and dumped them in a pail. I pulled them out one at a time. I recorded the sequence of heads and tails. I don't remember exactly, but I think the longest streak was 12 consecutive heads or tails.
What does that mean?
A gambler would think that means he is hot, which is absurd, it has nothing to do with it! it is expected! There would be streaks of 75-100 where I would get 57-58% of either heads or tails. It is expected from a 50% expectation. What did happen was also expected. When I finsihed the 1,000 pennies, it was always within the statistical expectation of 50% with a sample size of 1,000.
That is gambling 101, the fundemental expectation of a given sequence of events with a probability of 50%.
There will be 100% sequences, there will be longer sequences of 55% and higher, they are statistically expected!
The problem is gamblers that don't understand this mistake things to be otherwise, and get themselves in trouble.
I think someday I should write a book, but the problem is would the reader have the displine to listen, that is the most vital lesson of all. Remember, there is always another day, as long as your still in the game!
Hawks Fan
EOG Enthusiast
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
Ned, anytime I would be more than happy to listen to some of the things you have to say/share... I have been doing this for a while and have the discipline and want to work hard but the problem for me is time constraints, as with most people...
I am willing just need some help or push in the right direction. Don't have time to search out and through all the things I need to...
As time has gone by I have been better and 5 of the last 6 years have been plus for me... Now I pick and choose when and what I bet....
Ned, anytime I would be more than happy to listen to some of the things you have to say/share... I have been doing this for a while and have the discipline and want to work hard but the problem for me is time constraints, as with most people...
I am willing just need some help or push in the right direction. Don't have time to search out and through all the things I need to...
As time has gone by I have been better and 5 of the last 6 years have been plus for me... Now I pick and choose when and what I bet....
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
We have a forum called "EOG Tech" set aside for this very purpose.:cheers
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 (L)
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 (P)
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 (W)
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 (L)
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5 (L)
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5 (W)
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
HOLY CROSS +5 (L)
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 (L)
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 (P)
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 (W)
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 (L)
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5 (L)
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5 (W)
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5
HOLY CROSS +5 (L)
Outhouse Tim
EOG Member
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
Ned
Really enjoy the commentary here. Spent part of my life with statistics, and the other part on sports.
I would love to get a page or two on your thoughts about buying point(s) in football. Lots of talk about 3's and 7's, pro and some college talk.
Thanks in advance.
Ned
Really enjoy the commentary here. Spent part of my life with statistics, and the other part on sports.
I would love to get a page or two on your thoughts about buying point(s) in football. Lots of talk about 3's and 7's, pro and some college talk.
Thanks in advance.
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
FRIDAY:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 (L)
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 (P)
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 (W)
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 (L)
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5 (L)
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5 (W)
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5 (L)
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5 (W)
HOLY CROSS +5 (L)
3-5-1
FRIDAY:
KENTUCKY/LSU OVER 140 (L)
MISS ST/SC OVER 150 (P)
HOU/MEMPHIS UNDER 135 (W)
UAB/TULSA UNDER 125.5 (L)
ALA/TENN OVER 149.5 (L)
UCSB/UC NORTHRIDGE UNDER 134.5 (W)
FLA/AUBURN OVER 140.5 (L)
PACIFIC/LONG BEACH ST UNDER 128.5 (W)
HOLY CROSS +5 (L)
3-5-1
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
SATURDAY GAMES:
MD BLT COUNTY +5.5
TULSA/MEMPHIS UNDER 121
MISS ST/LSU OVER 140
AUB/TENN OVER ???
PACIFIC/CS NORTHRIDGE UNDER ???
SYSTEM YESTERDAY: 3-5 37.5%
SYSTEM OVERALL: 45-25 64.3%
SINCE I QUIT PLAYING: 9-9 50.0%
I warned that this system, because of a 70-71% start had lost its value going forward, and that appears to be the case.
SATURDAY GAMES:
MD BLT COUNTY +5.5
TULSA/MEMPHIS UNDER 121
MISS ST/LSU OVER 140
AUB/TENN OVER ???
PACIFIC/CS NORTHRIDGE UNDER ???
SYSTEM YESTERDAY: 3-5 37.5%
SYSTEM OVERALL: 45-25 64.3%
SINCE I QUIT PLAYING: 9-9 50.0%
I warned that this system, because of a 70-71% start had lost its value going forward, and that appears to be the case.
ballwonder
EOG Master
Re: Q & A COMMENTS ON IF YOU THOUGHT BB WAS FUN PICKS
Ned thanks for posting these still.
Ned thanks for posting these still.