Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Just going to run a single thread for my tournament plays and analysis. Open invite for anyone to bounce around ideas and share opinions on any of the up coming games.

Hopefully we will have a running dialogue and get a variety of takes on these games. I figure the more info the better. Many out there are sharper than I and I like to feed on your knowledge...

... heres what Im on so far:

718 - BYU -2 vs Tex A&M

Believe these two matched up last year in a close one with BYU taking the short end of the stick. Most of BYUs guns back this year to take revenge on a different looking Tex A&M team this year. Different for the worst in my opinion. BYU is a very good road team, plays solid defense but most importantly has more experience on the court.

724 - Memphis -19 1/2 vs Cal Northridge

Cant imagine anything but a blowout here. These Big West teams cant compete against top twenty teams much less top ten. I seriously doubt it at least. Realize this is piss poor analysis, but that about the size of this contest .... a piss poor mismatch.

726 - Cal -1 vs Maryland

Really dont think Maryland should be here while Creighton (and any other deserving teams) are in the NIT. I imagine some might say the same for Cal but I would strongly dissagree. Cal has done very well in the Pac 10 this year. Every single year I hear how the Pac Ten sucks and how they will blow in the tournament and every year they show up strong. These teams improve on each other throughout the year in conference play and are well seasoned for this tournament by the time March rolls around. Not saying we have final four teams here, just saying they all deserve to be here and will aqcuit themselves quite well in my opinion. I think Cal is much better than Maryland and will win easy.

825 - Cleveland St. +8 vs Wake Forest

One of the two mid major teams that I think has a shot at advancing. Butler is the other. Im not too sure about betting Butler but think Im getting a good value with this game on a team capable of pulling the upset. They are a road warrior, play great defense and are a mature and experienced team.

Check yall later, will recap all my plays on the day of the event and post the results and running record at the end. Good luck everyone.
 

dddowntown

EOG Addicted
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

724 - Memphis -19 1/2 vs Cal Northridge

In my opinion i think out of all of the favorites at 1 and 2 seeds i think that if your in double digit points Memphis is the only team to take. They are VERY consistent team and are kicking small school ass all over this year and seemed to take their confernce tourney seriously as much as i took them seriously and covered the spread at big favorites. Also to note: Memphis totally got snubbed for the #1 seed and maybe.. just maybe... they will take this seed and this tournament MORE serious and murder cal northridge to say "hey were gunning for UCONN and taking no prisoners". Could'nt agree more but ive been getting rocked as of late capping.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

724 - Memphis -19 1/2 vs Cal Northridge

In my opinion i think out of all of the favorites at 1 and 2 seeds i think that if your in double digit points Memphis is the only team to take. They are VERY consistent team and are kicking small school ass all over this year and seemed to take their confernce tourney seriously as much as i took them seriously and covered the spread at big favorites. Also to note: Memphis totally got snubbed for the #1 seed and maybe.. just maybe... they will take this seed and this tournament MORE serious and murder cal northridge to say "hey were gunning for UCONN and taking no prisoners". Could'nt agree more but ive been getting rocked as of late capping.

Yeah man, been hearing a lot about Caliparis rants about not getting enough credit for being in Conf. USA and how everyone is minimizing the league and discrediting Memphis' win streaks. No way they allow any doubt by letting a team like Northridge look like any kind of tournament team. He is out to make a point Im sure. Probably wont let off the gas til hes up by 40 or more. If ever.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Three more for the first round...

848 - Missouri -13 vs Cornell

Cornell just doesnt have the horses to compete here. A full season of Ivy league play doesnt do much, as far as competition goes, to allow a team to improve much in conference. I could even say a regression is possible after a full bowl of Ivy salad.

824 - Utah +1 vs Arizona

Im surprised Arizona made it, but they stepped up with low expectations this year and played a little above themselves. Utah has been a tournament talent type team all along, however they let down at times this year. I think these highs and lows even out in this tournament game and Utah emerges as the better team that they really are, especially in the defensive, depth and free throw department.

713 - Butler +3 vs LSU

I thought if Trent Johnson could capitalize on his opportunity to dominate the SEC tournament this year and get an easy enough seed to advance, that he stood a chance at being a coach of the year candidate. Alas he is about to see his future reqruiting opportunities fly out the window with a first round exit. Butler will find a way to expose LSUs soft underbelly.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

On Missouri as well Natty. 90% sure I'll play Memphis, just debating whether it'll be the game, the 1H, or both.

Don't necessarily disagree with the Cleveland State pick, but your infatuation with the Vikings is starting to scare me... :+textinb3
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

said it last night - this is a TERRIBLE matchup for Northridge - the style of ball they play will make this one about as ugly as it gets

Butler beats LSU - SU

agree with a LOT of your picks - not sure if that is good or bad
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

said it last night - this is a TERRIBLE matchup for Northridge - the style of ball they play will make this one about as ugly as it gets

Butler beats LSU - SU

agree with a LOT of your picks - not sure if that is good or bad

Thanks Winky, you certainly are a charmer. :LMAOStill cant figure out why I like ya, but I do, so good luck man. Hope you clean up this month.
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

I agree, I follow Northridge fairly close and they are going to have a very tough time scoring against Memphis...

Only thing that scares me if Memphis doesn't take the game too seriously..

Glad to see you on them sir.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

I agree, I follow Northridge fairly close and they are going to have a very tough time scoring against Memphis...

Only thing that scares me if Memphis doesn't take the game too seriously..

Glad to see you on them sir.

word has it memphis is pissed about NOT getting a #1 seed and they are coming to play with fire in their eyes

also keep this in mind - this game starts around 9:20A CA (CSUN) Time. the "Pornadors" might still be asleep early on

this one very easily could be the biggest blowout of Round 1
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

On Missouri as well Natty. 90% sure I'll play Memphis, just debating whether it'll be the game, the 1H, or both.

Don't necessarily disagree with the Cleveland State pick, but your infatuation with the Vikings is starting to scare me... :+textinb3

Cle.St. is certainly my pet project right now. I always seem to have one. Id like to support my last pet project N.Dak.St. since Ive only had one chance to bet them but Kansas really intrigues me this year. I absolutely hate that NDSU drew Kansas. And theyre only getting 10-11 pts. WTF. Im gonna have to pass on them unless the line really moves like three points.

Gyno and Winky..... I know you guys get a fair amount of local exposure to Northridge in SoCal and I respect your opinions, so I am very pleased this pick agrees with you. Im all over the Memphis chip on shoulder act.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Some Tuesday NIT action:

574 - Notre Dame -5 vs UAB

Neither team plays defense worth a damn. Neither coach gets it or ever will. Notre Dame has more scoring weapons and are especially deadly on this home court. UABs lack of defense always puts them at a dissadvantage on the road. Add that ND is probably the better all around team and I think the game plan should be pretty simple. Do anything necessary to keep Vaden from getting clean looks, let Harangody do his thing and feed Mclarney on the perimiter.

584 - St.Marys -4 vs Wash St.

Patty Mills has not been ultra impressive yet with three games under his belt but he has only had one home game against E.Wash in which they won easy. There was never any real sense of urgency necessary and Mills only scored 19 points. I feel he will find his groove in this last home game and look to explode in this post season tournament. There is a reason you dont see any big teams travel to the Gaels relatively tiny home gym in non conference play and Wash.St still has not mustered any offense to hang at this venue. The real cincher is that thier lock down defense of last year has fallen off as well.

Also adding 1 unit to what is now rare 2 unit play for me in the first round NCAA tournament:

724 - Memphis -19 1/2 vs Cal Northridge

Very surprised to still get this number.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Lots of plays already, GL Natty hope you have a solid post season...you certainly are a quick learner so you should do well
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Lots of plays already, GL Natty hope you have a solid post season...you certainly are a quick learner so you should do well

Thanks Shady, I thought I knew a thing or two when I started posting but the undesireable first half of this season forced me to drop some bad habits (still have a couple Im sure) and most importantly to realize that I still have a lot to learn . You guys have all helped me tremendously in many ways. I am very grateful to the people here at EOG.

Didnt realize it was St.Pattys day when I made my picks last night. How ironic I go with the Irish and St.Marys (especially with a star named Patty). Shit .... how can I lose?
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

You cant and wont natty...hopefully

Glad you found EOG man. It is the only site i have ever posted at other than micelli's...

I don't even look at other forums anymore. Bunch of assclowns and bashers, and guys who fudge thier records and think they are way better than they are...
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Crush it Natty :cheers

Not sure if I'm going to play any games tonight. Maybe just 2Hs... going to take a deeper lines in a bit.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Day one Madness recap:

Notre Dame -5 (-120) - Winner - Irish kept blowing big leads and I probably should have gotten screwed out of the cover. St Patty lookin over my shoulder with the luck of the Irish. Still covered despite blowing big leads with missed free throws, forcing bad shots, missed layups, and slacker defense after every single point spread covering scoring run.

St. Marys -4 - Winner - Much more satisfying and solid winner here. Gotta give Wazzu credit for making a few heroic runs to keep it from getting out of control. Looks like I nailed the Patty Mills return to form.

2-0 Madness record. I am pleased. :cheers
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Adding two more for the NCAA tourney:

731 - N.Iowa +9 vs Purdue

This should be a very good game to watch. I hope at least. Very sound fundamental values for both teams. Anybody that emerges on top of the Missouri Valley gets my respect in the Tournament every year. I dont seem to go dissapointed very often. MVC teams are 16-6-2 ATS in the last 5 years in the Big Dance. You cant be a pushover to win this conference and NI was at the top most of the year. Legitimate live dog here.



849 - Utah St. +4 1/2 vs Marquette

Boise is practically in the Aggies back yard so lots of fan support here. However, that does not put the points on the board. Although not amassed in the Big East, the Aggies have some very impressive numbers. Terrific guard play, good defense and a highly efficient offense ( nearly 1.5 asst/to ratio, solid overall defensive numbers and nearly 50% shooting percentage). The loss of Marquettes senior guard Dominic James lead to four straight losses to end the conference regular season. They seemed to play pretty well in the conference tournament but are definitly going to miss his numbers and senior leadership. Not much to compare with Utah States non conference schedule and they sort of took thier foot off the gas in the last third of the season but this team has the goods to compete and pull a mild upset.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

A little futures action:

Gonzaga to win the NCAA 2008-09 Tournament

1/2 unit pays 24 to 1

Zags peaking at the right time and word is this could be the best version Mark Few has offered if they can execute to thier potintial. They underperformed early in the year but the WCC is a conference that has a lot of underated talent and doesnt get the national respect they probably deserve. Gonzaga has the size, athletic talent and experience to make a nice looking darkhorse.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Wednesday NIT action:

626 - Providence -2 vs Miami

Dissapointed but not surprised Providence emerges as a sharpened veteran of the Big East wars more than capable of defending thier home turf against a team that could not even make it past Maryland to get in to the tournament.

652 - Oregon St. ML (-103) vs Houston

OSU is always a difficult venue for visiting teams. Even top Pac Ten teams that travel there once a year. Besides OSU will leave it all on the floor for coach, and who knows ... the President may be watching. By the way Calipari sounds like a presidential candidate trying to convince me that he can lower my taxes and fix the health care system if I will just give Conference USA the credit it deserves. Nice try John. I certainly dont blame you for trying and applaud your efforts but Id rather just take a block of government cheese home thank you very much.

652 - Oregon St. ML (-103) vs
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Added NIT action for Wednesday:

629 - Ill.St. +7 vs Kansas St.

Redbirds easily deserve to be in the NCAA tournament (WHAT A JOKE). Just missed by losing to N.Iowa (No shame in that). Dont know why I didnt zoom in on this earlier but seeing Tripp on it made me do a double take. Missouri Valley is the conference that gets minimized by the pundits and selection committe every year Mr. Calipari. Lets guess who would win every or most of the games on a nuetral site tournament between C-USAs (not including Memphis) top three teams and MVCs top three....
Ok this is the Big 12, but K.St. IS a NIT team and Ill.St. IS a legitimate NCAA tournament team.
 

Tim Finchem

EOG Dedicated
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

good luck natty...like them all except N Iowa....I think they get thoroughly embarrassed against Purdue...Purdue is playing great and Hummel is healed fully now
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Good luck Natty. Nice start last night. :cheers

One point of contention though. :+textinb3

I don't buy Illinois State as a legit NCAA tourney team. Not saying I don't think +7 is solid value here... but I just disagree with the statement. OOC schedule = Not very impressive. Lose by 14 during Bracket Buster weekend to Niagara. Lost 7 regular season conference games including being swept by Indiana State...

Unless you're speaking strictly talent/team wise (not credential wise), which you may be and... in which case, I still don't think I agree with you, but I think you have a much more valid argument...

Also, I'm on Marquette and don't like to see you on the other side... because James' injury worries me as well. Just like McNeal, Hayward, and crew to take care of business for at least a round or two...
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

No problem Goon. I know theres a few hiccups with Ill.St. but they are right within spitting distance of NI and Creighton on a talent and experience level. Niagara is another tournament worthy team that gets pushed aside for the Marylands, Arizonas and Ohio states, but thats just life in a dollar driven society. If I were in charge NI, Creighton and Niagara (or possibly Ill.St., but as you point out they do have enough slips to argue disqualification) would get these three spots. Ill.St. is pretty much the same team that upset Utah St. last year and they are a lot more experienced now. For NI to pretty much run roughshod through this conference, which I consider a poor mans Big East, is ultra impressive in my opinion, so they are always live to pull an upset and I love getting more than a handful of points. As Ive already stated, one look at the MVCs tournament record proves they are an underated conference ( 16-6-2 ATS).
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Agree. I would rather see Creighton or Niagara than Maryland. Creighton decided to only show up on occasion during the first half of the season or they would be in the tourney despite bad loss against Illinois State.
 

dddowntown

EOG Addicted
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=0><TBODY><TR class=game_team><TD class="first nowrap">635 northwestern</TD><TD>+5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Wednesday Madness recap:

Providence -2 - Loser - Tough night of offense for the friars. Couldnt get much to go in.
Illinois St. +5 - Winner - Nearly won outright, K.St. ties games with at the wire and wins in OT. Too bad Red birds wouldve been a team to ride.
Oregon St. ML (-103) - Winner - Houston could not hang with gritty defense long enough to survive. OSU should be a good fade depending on the number and matchup.

2-1 tonight and 4-1 in post season Madness. (+3.9 units)
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Continued success Natty, let's beat down this tournament!
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Nice night Natty.

So far I'm with you on Memphis and against on Butler today. Good luck on all, Natty. :cheers
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Thanks guys, best of luck to you also.

Adding some Thurs NIT and Fri NCAA:

740 - Notre Dame -5 vs New Mexico

Think ND should match up real well and overpower NM here. Both teams have strugged away from home but ND has done so against much sterner opposition and is more accustomed to big spotlights and venues. NM does not have the ammo to play catch up like UAB did if ND pulls ahead.

834 - Siena/Ohio St. under 142

Cant get out of thinking this line is way too low. Both teams probably will employ similar styles. OSU should play pretty good defense and defend the three a little better than some of the defenses Siena is used to seeing. OSU gave a little up on defense in thier last stretch of Big Ten games but they will not be required to defend the paint as much here, freeing up the perimeter defense. Siena is also a strong defensive team. Pretty good matchup overall and I can see it staying close and tight the whole game.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Thursday action recap:

713 - Butler +3
724 - Memphis -19 1/2 (2units)
718 - BYU -2
731 - N.Iowa +9
726 - Cal -1

740 - ND -5

Lot of action today, good luck everybody. :pop:
 

skippy3481

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

Natty be careful with butler. I live about 15 minutes from the school and there is zero excitement this year. Butler is very capable of laying a huge egg here. Butlers offense is predicated on outside shooting and that is one thing lsu can defend. Beyond that, butler has no one to check thorton in the slightest. I wish you luck in all your action
 

Key-Touch

EOG Veteran
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

BOL today..we have very similiar cards todays..i think ND is the only difference, i was going to put a play on RI for the record but i couldnt find enough value on it
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

This thread should never be on the 2nd page.. GL with the later games sir.
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

:shoot:No need to recap this debacle. Feel like Ive been arrested on Christmas day. 1-5 for the day 5-6 overall and -2.7 units for post season madness.

Heres all my Friday action:

849 - Utah St. +4 1/2 vs Marquette

848 - Missouri -13 vs Cornell

824 - Utah +1 vs Arizona

825 - Cle.St. +8 vs Missouri

833 - Siena/Ohio St. under 142

After today these dont look nearly as good as when I bet them so ........
Good luck everybody.
 

ragarm2

EOG Member
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

How many teams can Missouri play in one day? Good Luck
tomorrow Natty.............
 
Re: Nattys NCAA, NIT and CBI thread for 2009

How many teams can Missouri play in one day? Good Luck
tomorrow Natty.............

Ha.... yes I do make a fair share of typos. The side is the only important thing though, hopefully Mizzou can hold on to the cover ..... glad to see they showed up for the right game.

Adding NIT Friday action:

860 - SDSU -5 vs Kansas St.

Not time for much analysis. Guess the biggest thing that stands out is defense. Lots for SD and little for K.St. Pretty hard to beat a quality team on the road without good D. FTs and rebounds too. And KS hasnt covered a lined game ATS in thier last 7 or 8. That should be enough. I hope. :+whipping
 

salex78

EOG Enthusiast
Good calls

Good calls

Good calls Natty you lost a couple but you had a fairly good day! much better than that damn day other day which was a nightmare! I tailed you on some of your bets not all, I had cleveland st and had them on money line!!!,missouri, dayton, utah, wisconsin, took that damn total we got screwed on the ot siena ohio st game knew when it was double ot that we had lost the totalalthough if that damn game ends in regulation its an easy win on the under! I cannot win freakin totals in this NCAA tourney . Of course you would think unders would cover with better defense but it doesnt even though the public bets overs for most part in this big public tourneys! They are all freaking going over for most part ! un real the bookies have to be losing lots of money on totals
 
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