GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Thursday March 19:

To win 1 unit:
Memphis -19.5
LSU -2
Villanova -16.5

To win 0.5 unit:
Duke -21.5
Duke 1H -12
UConn -20.5
UConn 1H -11.5 (-115)
Villanova 1H -9 (-115)

Decided I'm going to lay the big chalk with the superior teams today: Duke, Nova, UConn, and Memphis. If Lawson were playing, I'd probably be on UNC as well. Going to take a look at Oklahoma later too.

I'm not sure this younger Butler team is as tournament ready as they have been in past years. They do have the nice road win over Xavier. But with LSU only needing 2 to cover, I like the Tigers to use their altheticsm and size to grab a win here.

Best of luck today, everyone! :cheers
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Illinois -5 (-105)

Way, way, way too much love for Western Kentucky here. I'd be tempted to take the Hilltoppers with a higher line, but I'm going to take the Illini here. I know Frazier is out, but the Illini still have that frontcourt of Davis and Tisdale. And they still have McCarney and Meachem who can score from grom the guard spots.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Memphis 2H -10 (-115)
Memphis 2H -10.5 (-110)

I think with it's starters back on the floor, Memphis can win this half by double digits.

Not loving any of the 2H totals. Numbers are all too close for me to want to play under or over except for Texas A&M and BYU. I lean under on that one based on the 1H numbers. However, I think BYU might try to push the pace to come back. And I don't trust A&M's defense.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Actually, I have a small 2H totals play.

To win 0.5 unit:

CSUN/Memphis u71 (-115)

1H: 51 Field Goal attempts, 26 Free Throw attempts (10 O-Boards; 4 for CSUN, 6 for Memphis).

Note: I think the free throw attempts should come down this half, and I think that cuts down CSUN's point total for the half.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Maryland/Cal 2H o76

1H: 65 Field Goal attempts, 20 Free Throw attempts (15 O-Boards; 5 for Maryland, 10 for Cal)

Note: O-Boards is the only statistic that makes me hesitate about making this play.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Add:

To win 1 unit:

Oklahoma -15

Morgan State won @ Maryland, but:

lost by 17 to UW-Green Bay (neutral court)
lost by 29 to Utah (neutral court)
lost by 14 to Washington (@ Washington)

Oklahoma should be focused here. I like them to cover tonight. Looking at Morgan State's roster, Griffin should have a nice size advantage on the inside.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Clemson 2H -4 (-115)

I don't think the Tigers look too bad. Hitting the offensive glass well. Shots should start falling. I think the Tigers can overcome the three point deficit and pull out the win.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Nova -12 (-105)

American's 3pt clip is going to fall off here. Reynolds, Stokes, and Fisher should start contributing in the 2nd half.

Not really liking any of the 2H totals plays on the three games that have made it to halftime.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Below is the biggest play on a single game that I've made in March...

To win 4 units:

VCU/UCLA 2H u73

1H: 46 Field Goal attempts, 15 Free Throw attempts (5 O-Boards; 4 for VCU, 1 for UCLA)
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Western Kentucky/Illinois 2H o68.5 (-105)

1H: 64 Field Goal attempts, 9 Free Throw attempts (7 O-Boards, 6 for Western Kentucky, 1 for for Illinois)
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Alright... 6+ hour drive tomorrow morning, so I'll probably miss the first set of games.

Have the following plays already in for tomorrow:

To win 2 units:
USC -2 (-120)

To win 1 unit:
Marquette -5
Marquette -4 (-120)
Ohio State -3
Missouri -13
Xavier -11
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks, Ragu. Don't like to have to be nervous about a 4-unit play at the end. Scoring pace was pretty good for me through the first 14+ minutes: 45 points. 24 points during the last 5:38, and it still went under by 4. But yeah, definitely a basket or two at the could've led to a decent amount of fouling toward the end, and I could've been missd. I was kind of suprised by the 73 number, so I didn't even shop the line when I saw it. Definitely missed out on a 73.5 (-115), and I would've been kind of disappointed if I had pushed. Play probably deserved to be 3 units at most based on the numbers and the fact that I haven't played anything for more than 2 units all month. But I forced a little too much today, I think. Even though I finished up a little over 4 units on the day, I'm not exactly thrilled with some of the bets I made.

Anyways, going to the gym then a 6+ hour drive. So no 2H picks from me for the first set of games.

Good luck today, everyone! :cheers
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Add to win 2 units:

Missouri 2H -6.5 (-105)

Cornell has faded in the 2nd half in a lot of games this season...
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Cornell/Missouri 2H u75.5

1H: 63 Field Goal attempts, 5 Free Throws attempts (12 O-Boards; 7 for Cornell, 5 for Missouri)

Note: Wish I would've grabbed a 76.5 or a 76... hopefully the number doesn't make a difference.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Hopefully not forcing a play here.

To win 1 unit:

USC/Boston College 2H u74

1H: 54 Field Goal attempts, 13 Free Throw attempts (7 O-Boards; 2 for USC, 5 for Boston College)
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Portland State/Xavier 2H: u74.5

1H: 52 Field Goal attempts, 14 Free Throw attempts (4 O-Boards; 1 for Portland State, 3 for Xavier)

Notes: Portland State shot over 56% from the field. Xavier shot over 55% from the field. The two teams shot a combined 11 for 24 from behind the arc. I think the shooting percentages should come down in the second half. I also think Xavier should widen the gap, so there shouldn't be a ton of fouling at the end.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Michigan State -15

Robert Morris lost by 20+ to Xavier and Duquesne. East Tennessee State hadn't lost a game by more than 14 all season. That was one factor that kept me off of that game This Michigan State team needs to get back into the flow of things with a healthy roster. State has a size and talent advantage. Of course if Robert Morris drains threes for the entire game, this play could miss.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Siena/Ohio State u73

1H: 56 Field Goal attempts, 8 Free Throw attempts (15 O-Boards; 13 for Siena, 2 for Ohio State)

I know some people here are on the game total. They have u91ish for the game. :)
 

TheBigRagu

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

little deja vu (VCU game last night) lets get it ....on the under for the game already....:cocktail
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Wake Forest 2H -7.5 (-105)

After the slow start, Wake chipped into the lead. Talent team that really doesn't have too much foul trouble (only McFarland has 2). I'll take my chances on them here.
 

Hawks Fan

EOG Enthusiast
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Siena/Ohio State u73

1H: 56 Field Goal attempts, 8 Free Throw attempts (15 O-Boards; 13 for Siena, 2 for Ohio State)

I know some people here are on the game total. They have u91ish for the game. :)


Real nice call here, but Siena fucked you with a missed ft to take the lead with 8 seconds... Now in ot and more than likely going over...
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks, HF!

End of the day was rough:

-Except for leading 3-2 early in the game, Siena doesn't lead again until overtime, but Ohio State misses foul shots and loses the cover at the end.
-2H under (Siena/Ohio State) is good by 12 in regulation, but goes over in overtime.
-Michigan State is up by 23 in the second half (and 21 with less than 4 minutes to go), and the pushes the 15.
-The Wake play was just a bad bet on my party. I wasn't really following that game, and at best that's a 50-50 proposition. It's not like Cleveland State was just hitting a ridiculous amount of their shots; it seems they were outplaying Wake in general. I deserved to lose that game.
-Was +7.6 units for the day heading into the last four games. Midway through the second halves, I thought I was going to finish up 10+ units (thought Ohio State would cover, the under would be good, and Michigan State would cover). Instead I finish +3.25 units for the day.

The thing is there is no reason to be upset. The only bet I regret making was the Wake 2H bet. Not going to win them all. Sometimes the breaks go in your favor. Sometimes they don't. A winning day is a winning day. Hopefully I find some nice plays for tomorrow.

I'll post a recap of my action from Thursday and Friday tomorrow morning. Not a ton of sleep last night + traveling today = A Tired GB@N.

Good night and good luck with the 2nd round action, everyone! :cheers
 

GetThat$$$

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

man i played wake too, a friend of mine convinved me, hours before he said he liked wake and i told him i hated wake. ha ha seriously though i dont even know why i decided to just go with it. bad bet. i started off 5-1 today and ended up 5-6-1 for the day, i guess you can say "bad night" not to mention i could have had fsu and the over, just couldnt get lucky there on either one.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thursday:
ATS Game: 5-3, -0.3 unit
ATS 1H: 1-2, -0.63 unit
ATS 2H: 1-3, -1.4 units
Totals 2H: 3-1, +5.43 units
Team Totals Game: 1-0, +1 unit
Overall: 11-8, +4.1 units

Friday:
ATS Game: 4-3-1, +1.6 units
ATS 2H: 2-1, +1.95 units
Totals 2H: 2-2, -0.3 unit
Overall: 8-6-1, +3.25 units

1st Round and Overall NCAA Tourney (Through Friday March 21)
ATS Game: 9-6-1, +1.3 units
ATS 1H: 1-2, -0.63 unit
ATS 2H: 3-4, +0.55 units
Totals 2H: 5-3, +5.13 units
Team Totals Game: 1-0, +1 unit
Overall: 19-14-1, +7.35 units

Records are kind of messy because if the lines move enough and quickly enough that sometimes I add to a play at 1/2 or 1pt difference. If I do this, I count the bets as seperate since they have the potential to have different results. So I think the ATS W-L records can be misleading. I've been winning and losing games like this, but it makes it look like I'm playing a fair amount more games than I actually am. Have had a couple of bigger plays. During the conference tourneys, I didn't play anything for more than 2 units. I don't like the fact that if I had missed my one 4-unit play that I would be down for the tournament. I prefer not to have one play influence my overall results so dramatically. But sometimes you see something you like.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

ML Parlay (1.19 units to win 1 unit)
Oklahoma
Pitt
Duke

ML Parlay (1 unit to win 2.34 units)
Duke
Connecticut
Memphis
Oklahoma
Pitt
Louisville
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1.5 units:

Texas A&M/UConn 2H o73

1H: 67 Field Goal attempts, 22 Free Throw attempts (16 O-Boards; 10 for Texas A&M, 6 for UConn)
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 0.5 unit:

LSU/UNC u82.5 (-115)

1H: 61 Field Goal attempts, 11 Free Throw attempts (9 O-Boards; 6 for LSU, 3 for UNC)

Going to keep this one small. Point differential definitely sets up well for fouling if UNC doesn't come out strong early. Feel like the numbers suggest maybe this should be 1 or 1.5 units, but I'm just not THAT confident in this.
 

GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Michigan/Oklahoma 2H u71.5

1H: 50 Field Goals, 13 Free Throw attempts (13 O-Boards; 5 for Michigan, 8 for Oklahoma)

Feel like maybe this one should be a little larger (1.5 or 2 unit) play as well. Just not feeling super confient at the moment.
 
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