Horrible line at BetJam

[royalfan]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Could be a lesson learned here. Not everything needs to be posted. Will be shown the door quicker for one, and for two we get you are a smart dude and get how to find some stale line values. They don't always need to be posted though. Good luck getting out. Should be able to, and a fair price on them to be sure anyway if you aren't worried about losing up to 250 bucks.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

hines im in for 16K. Just send me a check for 15,500 and take yourself somewhere nice with the other 500 you owe me.

Shittttttttt

Looks like Hines is gonna have to take a drive to Norman and go Tonya Harding on Blake Griffin. Scalp city then.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Could be a lesson learned here. Not everything needs to be posted. Will be shown the door quicker for one, and for two we get you are a smart dude and get how to find some stale line values. They don't always need to be posted though. Good luck getting out. Should be able to, and a fair price on them to be sure anyway if you aren't worried about losing up to 250 bucks.

Lesson was learned. Double check your math before looking like an idiot on a forum.

As for the smart part, wasn't trying to show aptitude. I clearly did not by fucking up the math. Was just trying to help other posters. I keep most my stuff OTB, but I like to contribute occasionally as well.

 

[munson15]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

I was looking around for one of those No bets but haven't found em yet. I know 5D usually will open shit like that up but right now it is just yes/no on the 1 seeds to win their respective regions

Lots of times, that kind of bet shows up later in the week.:cheers

 

[WVU]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

call them up and tell them you bet into a bad line because it is +400ish everywhere else. They will likely cancel your wager

 

[justsilly]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

What's up Doc? Why not just correct me under your regular name?

This bet still has value. I believe I will be able to grab OU at +100 somewhere before tipoff. Which would mean that I would just need to grab UNC at -300 or better against Cuse, that is IF UNC got past Zaga, to make it breakeven. Of course, if Zaga wins then there is a huge scalp.

How does this make my math fuzzy if Zaga beats UNC? Do tell. You caught me once. Savor the flavor cuz it won't happen again.

With your projections of Syracuse being a 7.5 or 8 point dog to North Carolina you are looking at laying -340 to -400. You would never see -300 on your projected line. Your bet isnt scalpable at all. It is just a poor wager.

Secondly, and like I said before, in order to get your dream match-up in the Elite 8 (Syracuse vs Gonzaga) you would need a +350 dog to win (Gonzaga beating UNC). Either way you are a dog, but even more so for your backup scenario to happen. (Because, according to your projections Gonzaga is a bigger dog than Syracuse will be.)

You goofed up and made an error. Sometimes it is easier just to move on than to act justsilly and try to defend your poor position.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

With your projections of Syracuse being a 7.5 or 8 point dog to North Carolina you are looking at laying -340 to -400. You would never see -300 on your projected line. Your bet isnt scalpable at all. It is just a poor wager.

Secondly, and like I said before, in order to get your dream match-up in the Elite 8 (Syracuse vs Gonzaga) you would need a +350 dog to win (Gonzaga beating UNC). Either way you are a dog, but even more so for your backup scenario to happen. (Because, according to your projections Gonzaga is a bigger dog than Syracuse will be.)

You goofed up and made an error. Sometimes it is easier just to move on than to act justsilly and try to defend your poor position.

I made an error. But to say that this is a poor position is laughable. Look around at the other books odds on this.

Greek +395
Pinny +470

Give it up Mercer. I said I made a mistake but the line obviously still has value.

 

[Tuckman]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

thats really doc? thats tough to believe..

 

[Timetopay]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

im going with a long shot

Ray

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

It's Doc. Trust me.

Just no idea why he wouldn't post this under his name?

 

[Tuckman]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

im going with a long shot

Ray

he's not back yet i dont think

 

[Timetopay]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

he's not back yet i dont think

he's posted a few times while away. For some reason the more i think about it I have a feeling

 

[Tuckman]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

noway thats doc, i cant believe it in any way...zero chance its him

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

IP match and everything. It's doc

 

[Tuckman]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

IP match and everything. It's doc

weird :+clueless

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

weird :+clueless

I thought the same thing. I was pretty sure it was someone else but I was wrong. Damn good ghost, totally changed the posting style and everything.

 

[Tuckman]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

I thought the same thing. I was pretty sure it was someone else but I was wrong. Damn good ghost, totally changed the posting style and everything.

normal sentences, no budlight references, no gay comments, and he didnt talk about kiffen.. someone musta hacked into his IP, there is noway he can not mention 1 of those every single post

 

[justsilly]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

IP match and everything. It's doc

Or not.

Quit worrying about who is trying to help you and just accept the help.

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

justsilly hinesward is the best scalper on eog besides his hero WVU just look up their epic thread at EOG they couldn't even figure out the balances after they scalped a game:LMAO

he also said it was easy to scalp his florida st futures tickets:LMAO

these kids have a lot to learn.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

justsilly hinesward is the best scalper on eog besides his hero WVU just look up their epic thread at EOG they couldn't even figure out the balances after they scalped a game:LMAO

he also said it was easy to scalp his florida st futures tickets:LMAO

these kids have a lot to learn.

Hahahahaha

I have no idea who you are or what your deal is with me but you always like to take cracks at me. Funny though that every time I correct you or point out your mistakes the thread floats to the bottom. Imagine that.

Now let's play America's least favorite game. Count the BigDaddy inaccuracies in this post!

1) When did I say WVU was my hero?
2) When did I say I was the best scalper on EOG?
3) I never had a problem figuring out my balances in that thread.
4) I scalped my FSU futures ticket the very first game.

My my. Four inaccuracies in two sentences. Could that be a record?

You are absolutely clueless about me.

Thanks for playing though. Now go get your shinebox.

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

you have no clue. this thread proves my point you thought you just struck oil or something:LMAO


but its fun to act like you do:thumbsup


:cheers

 

[Timetopay]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

you have no clue. this thread proves my point you thought you just struck oil or something:LMAO


but its fun to act like you do:thumbsup


:cheers

Daddy i got a question. Hines tried to help and admitted he made a mistake. Why try to run someone off who is talking gambling atleast and trying to help?

2nd Why would you attack this post for helpfulness but not PO's "If I had $50,000 I would put it on the Redwings" Thread. Can you show me the analysis in that one?
:blink:

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

you have no clue. this thread proves my point you thought you just struck oil or something:LMAO


but its fun to act like you do:thumbsup


:cheers

Yep. That's me. No clue.

62.5% profit in 07-08
Currently at 130ish% profit for 08-09

Would bet those are better %'s than what you have done

Go get your shinebox buddy 91023i2ndw;l

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Daddy i got a question. Hines tried to help and admitted he made a mistake. Why try to run someone off who is talking gambling atleast and trying to help.

2nd Why would you attack this post for helpfulness but not PO's "If I had $50,000 I would put it on the Redwings" Thread. Can you show me the analysis in that one?
:blink:

i'm sorry i just logged on and haven't read that thread yet

is it my job to read every fucking thread on EOG?

:cheers

BTW PO pays me so that might be a problem can you understand that:LMAO

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Daddy i got a question. Hines tried to help and admitted he made a mistake. Why try to run someone off who is talking gambling atleast and trying to help.

2nd Why would you attack this post for helpfulness but not PO's "If I had $50,000 I would put it on the Redwings" Thread. Can you show me the analysis in that one?
:blink:

BigDaddy has had a hardon for me ever since I helped out in WVU's scalping thread. Why? I have no idea. But hey, if he gets his rocks off by attacking me, c'est la vie.

 

[Timetopay]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

i'm sorry i just logged on and haven't read that thread yet

is it my job to read every fucking thread on EOG?

:cheers

BTW PO pays me so that might be a problem can you understand that:LMAO

old joke that no one laughed at in amonth but keep the continue.

As far as reading a thread feel free to take your time. I am sure you will rip him like you do Hines :cheers

 

[trytrytry]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Your math seems a little fuzzy to me.

You need two independent decisions to occur to win this bet.

One decision is at a current market price of -102. (Syracuse beating OU)

According to your handicapping, the next decision would be at a market price of +320. (Syracuse beating UNC)

Parlaying those two results looks a little like this:

1.98 * 4.20 = 8.316
8.316 -1.00 = 7.316 or +731.6

Not only is the line not "horrible", you, my friend have the worst of it.

You guys that agreed with this need to do your math before you follow someones "advice".

This thread and your math are justsilly.

u forgot to factor in the odds that Zaga might beat NC...sharpen up the pencil..its bout +630 fair value best I can tell ..its a small overlay and for sure not the worst of it...

 

[Sound of Silence]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

You can look at this from a "true value" perspective (is it actually worth it percentage wise?) or a "comparative value" perspective (if you like Syracuse, is it better than parlaying them in the next two games).

Someone correct me when I'm inevitably wrong in my math... Using Pinnacle odds to go off of:


From a "comparitive value perspective", the odds on Syracuse to beat Oklahoma are +102. The odds on Syracuse to beat UNC would be around +320 I believe.

So, $100 on +102, then combine that and put it on +320 would net you $646.40, or +646... So +700 would be better value.

But, in the case Gonzaga knocks off UNC, you're holding something much more valuable... Cuse would probably be -130 or so against the Zags? So $100 on +102, then combine that and put it on -130 would net you a measly $155 -- which +700 would be MUCH better than.

I'm not smart enough to somehow combine the two and their percentage chances, but "worst" case you are about 70cents on the value side, "best" case you are probably upwards of 300cents on the value side.

So if you like Syracuse to win, its a smarter move to take 'Cuse +700 then to parlay.


But from an ACTUAL value standpoint:

Gonzaga/UNC is +360/-420... So a 60 cent hold. No hold would be "true value", which would be Gonzaga +390 as "true value". Converting Gonzaga +390 to a percentage chance (1 / 1+3.9) gives them a 20.4% "true" chance of beating UNC.

Syracuse is +102/112.. So a 14 cent hold. No hold would be "true value", which would be Syracuse +107. Converting to percentage chance gives Syracuse a 48.3% "true" chance of beating OU.

So, knowing those two outcomes gives us:

A 38.4% chance of UNC *playing* Syracuse
A 10.5% chance of Gonzaga *playing* Syracuse


I would estimate Syracuse would be +320 actual odds to beat UNC... So converting to true odds would make them +345, which would convert to a 22.4% chance. Gonzaga I'd put them as around a 53.5% "true" chance.

So my calculations show the "true" odds on Syracuse beating both OU and UNC (which is the scenario that would produce the highest payout) is around 8.6%.

Converting 8.6% chance to "true" odds puts it at around +1060. You'd obviously never find that, but it does show that what you are betting into and the actual chance of it happening when you take out the sportsbook's hold are worlds apart.


Now, someone rip apart my math please, I'm trying to learn some things.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

You can look at this from a "true value" perspective (is it actually worth it percentage wise?) or a "comparative value" perspective (if you like Syracuse, is it better than parlaying them in the next two games).

Someone correct me when I'm inevitably wrong in my math... Using Pinnacle odds to go off of:


From a "comparitive value perspective", the odds on Syracuse to beat Oklahoma are +102. The odds on Syracuse to beat UNC would be around +320 I believe.

So, $100 on +102, then combine that and put it on +320 would net you $646.40, or +646... So +700 would be better value.

But, in the case Gonzaga knocks off UNC, you're holding something much more valuable... Cuse would probably be -130 or so against the Zags? So $100 on +102, then combine that and put it on -130 would net you a measly $155 -- which +700 would be MUCH better than.

I'm not smart enough to somehow combine the two and their percentage chances, but "worst" case you are about 70cents on the value side, "best" case you are probably upwards of 300cents on the value side.

So if you like Syracuse to win, its a smarter move to take 'Cuse +700 then to parlay.


But from an ACTUAL value standpoint:

Gonzaga/UNC is +360/-420... So a 60 cent hold. No hold would be "true value", which would be Gonzaga +390 as "true value". Converting Gonzaga +390 to a percentage chance (1 / 1+3.9) gives them a 20.4% "true" chance of beating UNC.

Syracuse is +102/112.. So a 14 cent hold. No hold would be "true value", which would be Syracuse +107. Converting to percentage chance gives Syracuse a 48.3% "true" chance of beating OU.

So, knowing those two outcomes gives us:

A 38.4% chance of UNC *playing* Syracuse
A 10.5% chance of Gonzaga *playing* Syracuse


I would estimate Syracuse would be +320 actual odds to beat UNC... So converting to true odds would make them +345, which would convert to a 22.4% chance. Gonzaga I'd put them as around a 53.5% "true" chance.

So my calculations show the "true" odds on Syracuse beating both OU and UNC (which is the scenario that would produce the highest payout) is around 8.6%.

Converting 8.6% chance to "true" odds puts it at around +1060. You'd obviously never find that, but it does show that what you are betting into and the actual chance of it happening when you take out the sportsbook's hold are worlds apart.


Now, someone rip apart my math please, I'm trying to learn some things.

Jesus Christ. Whether or not you are right, this is impressive.

 

[justsilly]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

u forgot to factor in the odds that Zaga might beat NC...sharpen up the pencil..its bout +630 fair value best I can tell ..its a small overlay and for sure not the worst of it...

Or you just didnt read the rest of the thread before you posted.

Trytrytry again. You're being justsilly.

 

[Sound of Silence]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

I have an incredible talent of making it *look* like I know what i'm talking about. I'm expecting (hoping) someone to come in here and teach me something.

 

[justsilly]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

I have an incredible talent of making it *look* like I know what i'm talking about. I'm expecting (hoping) someone to come in here and teach me something.

Here is the math SoundofSilence....

One decision is at a current market price of -102. (Syracuse beating OU)

According to your handicapping, the next decision would be at a market price of +320. (Syracuse beating UNC)

Parlaying those two results looks a little like this:

1.98 * 4.20 = 8.316
8.316 -1.00 = 7.316 or +731.6

He has the worst of it. Try either of the places below to verify what I have tried to state from the start.

http://www.parlaycalculator.com/
http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

As for the wildcard that everyone is throwing out there.....you would have to still have a dog of +350 (Gonzaga) win in order to set up the dream match up of Syracuse playing Gonzaga. Either way a dog of +320 or more has to win for this bet to cash.

This really isnt that difficult. You guys are being justsilly.

 

[Sound of Silence]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

The $733 figure is correct, my math was wrong above.

But +$733 on a parlay of Cuse over OU AND Cuse over UNC.

I imagine the extra $33 is more than negated by the 20% chance that Gonzaga has of beating Syracuse.

Syracuse +700 is a better value than parlaying Syracuse in the next two round. If UNC beats Gonzaga it is *slightly* worse value, but if Gonzaga beats UNC is is *a lot* better value.

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Here is the math SoundofSilence....

One decision is at a current market price of -102. (Syracuse beating OU)

According to your handicapping, the next decision would be at a market price of +320. (Syracuse beating UNC)

Parlaying those two results looks a little like this:

1.98 * 4.20 = 8.316
8.316 -1.00 = 7.316 or +731.6

He has the worst of it. Try either of the places below to verify what I have tried to state from the start.

http://www.parlaycalculator.com/
http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

As for the wildcard that everyone is throwing out there.....you would have to still have a dog of +350 (Gonzaga) win in order to set up the dream match up of Syracuse playing Gonzaga. Either way a dog of +320 or more has to win for this bet to cash.

This really isnt that difficult. You guys are being justsilly.

Doc, why not just post under your regular name? Doesn't make sense why you are ghosting.

Let me ask you this though. Is a difference of $30, assuming $100 bets, worth the chance of Gonzaga winning? I'd say that yes, yes it is.

If Zaga beats UNC, than I would expect Zaga to be about +120 to win against Cuse if Cuse beats OU. Are you saying then that $30 would not be worth what I would stand to make if Zaga upset UNC? I figure since Zaga is +350 against UNC, then a scalp of Zaga/Cuse would just have to make more than $105 to have value, correct? Is this not value then?

 

[HinesWard86]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

Referring to my post above.

In both situations, assume Cuse beats OU.

Now if UNC beats Zaga and my projected lines are right than I would have missed out on $30 by not parlaying Cuse for both days.

However, if Zaga does beat UNC......let's say Zaga is +100 (I think Zaga will be more than +100 however), then I can bet $400 on Zaga ML to win $400 and guarantee a profit of $300.

Doesn't this mean, assuming Cuse wins, that I am getting value because I am getting 10-1 on Zaga to beat UNC?

 

[trytrytry]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

on a $1 base wager..

I get approx the following (using the prices now and estimating the prices of the next round game)


if syracuse won both games..

21% of the time (this is the scenerio that Zags beat NC) a parlay of money lines on Syracuse in both games would net you +2.61 profit

79% of the time (this is the scenerio that NC beat the Zags) a parlay of money lines on Syracuse in both games would net you +7.26 profit..

line shopping would be key of course..

the 7-1 seems to be a slight overlay but betjam is not giving us much here...

 

[munson15]

Re: Horrible line at BetJam

I think it is a major assumption to put Syracuse in the Regional Final to begin with. That said, ingame betting could be the resolution of the issue of bailing on what was a bet made under false pretenses. Just a suggestion.