GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Duke 2H -2.5

Borderline play below...

To win 0.5 unit:

Texas/Duke 2H u74.5 (-105)
1H: 52 Field Goal attempts, 19 Free Throw attempts (11 O-Boards; 5 for Texas, 6 for Duke)
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

I was pretty close to not playing either of those 2H plays for the Duke game. Forced action. Money management (in terms of always betting proportionally to how much I like a play) and the occasional force play are two areas of deficiency for me. Will go further into that during my round two recap.

Add ML parlay: (1.15 units to win 1 unit)
Arizona
Louisville

Don't want to deal with the points in the Zona game. Using Louisville to bring the juice down to -115.

Best of luck today, everyone!
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1.5 units:

Arizona State/Syracuse 2H u74

1H: 54 Field Goal attempts, 4 Free Throw attempts (6 O-Boards)

Notes: Syracuse shot over 64% from the field in the 1H. Teams combined for 13 3-pointers.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 0.75 units:

Wisconsin/Xavier 2H u65

1H: 47 Field Goal attempts, 16 Free Throw attempts (6 O-Boards; 2 for Wisconsin, 4 for Xavier)

To win 0.75 units:

Dayton/Kansas o70.5

1H: 73 Field Goal attempts, 12 Free Throw attempts (18 O-Boards; 10 for Dayton, 8 for Kansas)

Note: Dayton shot under 23% from the field; Kansas shot under 37%. The teams combined to shoot 5-21 from behind the arc in the first half.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 0.75 unit:

Cleveland State 2H -1.5

Arizona has foul trouble. I'll take some of the pressure off of that bet with a nice sized middle.

To win 0.75 unit:

Cleveland State/Arizona 2H u72.5

1H: 48 Field Goal attempts, 20 Free Throw attempts (6 O-Boards; 6 for Cleveland State, 0 for Arizona)

To win 1 unit

Oklahoma State/Pitt 2H u82

1H: 56 Field Goal attempts, 16 Free Throw attempts (12 O-Boards; 3 for Oklahoma State, 9 for Pittsburgh)

Note: Oklahoma State shot 63% from the field, and Pitt shot over 58%. The teams combined to shoot 18 of 33 from behind the arc.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

NCAA Touranment 2nd Round Recap:

ATS 2H: 1-2, -0.93 unit
Totals 1H: 0-2, -1.65 units
Totals 2H: 5-4, +2.48 units
ML Parlays: 5-0, +7.34 units
Overall: 11-8, +7.24

Overall NCAA Tournament (Through 2nd Round)
ATS Game: 9-6-1, +1.3 units
ATS 1H: 1-2, -0.63 unit
ATS 2H: 4-6, -1.1 units
Totals 1H: 0-2, -1.65 units
Totals 2H: 10-7, +8.61 units
Team Totals Game: 1-0, +1 unit
ML Parlays: 5-0, +7.34 units
Overall: 30-23-1, +14.59 units

(Note: typo on the 1st Round... I was 19-15-1, not 19-14-1, but the units from the 1st Round summary post look correct)


Random Thoughts on the Round:

I'm definitely happy with my unit results. On the 2H totals, I'm winning my bigger plays; losing the smaller plays for the most part. One of the 2H ATS spreads this loss was a hedge on my ML parlay with Zona. With Chase B., Hill, and Wise combining for 8 1H fouls, I thought it made sense to take some of the risk off of the table with a nice sized eight point middle. Struggled with confidence after a not-so-great start to Saturday. Glad I played the ML parlays instead of screwing around with the spreads. This round played well to ML parlays. Still struggle with money management at some points. Lost 1.65 units on Nova/UCLA 1H under. That should've been a half unit play. But I went a little overboard after losing a 2H NIT play on Baylor/VT under that looked ridiculously good through the first 10 minutes of the 2H right before the Nova/UCLA game started. But I liked some ML parlays that I played for less than that Nova 1H under more than the Nova play. A lot of guys here are better than me at always playing bets to their confidence level and at not forcing plays. I want to learn those traits. But I guess as a rookie, I'll have to learn some of these things through my own mistakes.

Let's get'em Thursday/this weekend, guys! :cheers

So far, I'm only on Michigan State pk for 3 units.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks guys.

Sweet 16:

ML Parlay (2.55 units to win 2 units)
Pitt
UConn


That's all I have so far. May add something later today, and I'll be on the look out for 2H plays, as well.

Good luck today, everyone! :cheers
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

ML Parlay (1.5 units to win 1.82 units)
Memphis
Louisville
UNC

ML Parlay (0.75 unit to win 2.16 units)
Pitt
Memphis
UConn
Louisville
UNC

ML Parlay (0.25 unit to win 1.5 units)
Pitt
Memphis
UConn
Louisville
Michigan State
UNC
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Purdue/UConn 2H o70

1H: 64 Field Goal attempts, 12 Free Throw attempts (12 O-Boards; 3 for Purdue, 9 for UConn)
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Pitt 2H -6

I felt like Blair was playing to not get in foul trouble in the 1st half when I watched him on D and going after boards. He only has one foul at halftime. I think (or maybe I'm just very hopeful) that Pitt comes back.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Missouri/Memphis 2H o77

1H: 70 Field Goal attempts, 19 Free Throw attempts (12 O-Boards; 6 for each team)

Under normal circumstances, I'd probably play these numbers for more than a unit. But I didn't. Just don't love this one for some reason. Now the line is up to 77.5, and I don't feel like playing that number when I have some at 77.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Now seeing different statistics on ESPN.com. Only 69 field goal attempts and the 12 O-Boards are now 7 for Missouri and 5 for Memphis. But these changes wouldn't alter my play.
 
NattyBumpo

NattyBumpo

2
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Tough setback with the Memphis loss Goon. Chin up brother your having a great tourney. Lets get em tomorrow man. oij213490
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks Natty. The Memphis is disappointing (and ends my bracket fading hopes), but still +2.35 units for the night, so I can't complain too much.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1 unit:

Oklahoma 1H pk

Syracuse isn't a deep team and needs to be careful with foul trouble... which Big Blake could get them in. Will consider a 2H play as well.

To win 2 units:

UNC 1H -4 (-115)
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Kind of want to play Oklahoma/Cuse under... the numbers suggest going that way. But I could see a lot of fouling in this one with a 13-point differential. And I think Cuse tries to push the pace. Not going to force a play right now.
 
TheBigRagu

TheBigRagu

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Nice Job with OKLA, was on the wrong side there, lets getem with NC.... I think NC comes out hot, and the Zags stick with them in the end...
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks Ragu, glad we cashed on MSU and UNC!

Sweet Sixteen Recap:

ATS Game: 1-0, +3 units
ATS 1H: 2-0, +3 units
ATS 2H: 2-0, +1.5 unit
Totals 2H: 2-0, +3 units
Team Totals: 0-1, -1.15 units
ML Parlay: 1-3, -0.5 unit

Overall: 8-4, +8.85 units


Overall NCAA Tournament (Through Sweet Sixteen)
ATS Game: 10-6-1, +4.3 units
ATS 1H: 3-2, +2.37 units
ATS 2H: 6-6, +0.4 units
Totals 1H: 0-2, -1.65 units
Totals 2H: 12-7, +11.61 units
Team Totals Game: 1-1, -0.15 unit
ML Parlays: 6-3, +6.84 units
Overall: 38-27-1, +23.44 units


Another good round. Michigan State made me sweat out one of my larger plays of March, but the Spartans came through in the end. All three parlay losses were because of the Memphis loss. No second half total plays from me tonight (played two on Thursday night), but I didn't really love what I was seeing. And I'm glad I didn't force plays there regardless of whether they would've won or lost.

I have some ideas for how I want to play the Saturday games. I'm going to wait until tomorrow though. I hope there are movements that makes the lines I want to play worse for me overnight, but I'd rather give up a half point and make the right plays (or not play them if I decide the movement makes the play(s) unattractive.

Let's finish strong, everyone! :cheers
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Elite Eight:

ML Parlay (1.5 units to win 2.08 units)
UConn
Pitt

I like Thabeet's presence on D against Missouri's offense. UConn seems to be really clicking right now, and I feel like Thabeet makes a huge difference (except maybe against a Tyler H., Blair, or Griffin). I like Pitt's frontcourt against Nova's front court (both teams have some good guards). I hope the Panthers put Biggs on Cunningham in the 1H to help keep Young/Blair out of foul trouble.

May add another Saturday play or two after some rest. Will also watch for good 2H plays.

Good luck today, everyone! :cheers
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Pitt -2


To win 1 unit:

UConn 1H -3 (-115)


I really like Pitt today. May add something else with them. I think Missouri will need at least a half to adjust to Thabeet. UConn has been coming out strong this tourney.

Kind of want to play UConn/Missouri 1H under. Not sure if I will pull the trigger. Not in love with Sunday's lines right now, but I need to give them a deeper look.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Thanks Ragu.

I have nothing for the 2H. Lean UConn 2H -1.5 with Thabeet back on the court. Numbers are tough to read for the total. Missouri had many more shot attempts because of UConn turnovers. I'd lean under if it wasn't for foul potential. With the potential for fouls, I actually lean over, I guess. Not sure Missouri can score that much with Thabeet out there though. I don't feel like betting on the number of fouls for this one and whether Thabeet gets quick fouls, so I'm passing on the total.

I like 2H plays, but I'm used to having more games to choose from. Not going to force one here (as much as I want to) just because I have limited choices.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 0.5 unit:

Nova/Pitt u75 2H (-115)

1H: 56 Field Goal attempts, 22 Free Throw attempts (11 O-Boards; 7 for Nova, 4 for Pitt)

Note: Small play. Lot of foul shots this half, which I find somewhat harder to interpretate. I'll admit, I want some action by making this play. But I also think this is the side to be on if you're going to play the 2H total here.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1.5 units:

Pitt 2H -1 (-105)

Note: I'd feel a lot better about this if Blair didn't pick up that silly foul late in the half, but I think overall Pitt has looked better. I think with one foul he'd be more aggressive early in the half. Cunningham and Clark have 2 fouls for Nova, so the Cats have to be careful on that end as well. Really like how Sam Young is playing right now.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Michigan State/Louisville 2H u73 (-115)

1H: 49 Field Goal attempts, 10 Free Throw attempts (6 O-Boards; 2 for Michigan State, 4 for Louisville).

To win 1 unit:
Michigan State 2H +7 (-120)

Louisville hasn't looked phenomenal in the tourney aside from the Zona game. The veteran Suton appears to be a tough matchup, and Lucas in the best PG on the floor. You have the big man that is playing the best and the best pg on the floor, and I'll take 7 points with that team. State also has some solid depth, so they shouldn't fall off too much here.

Good luck today, everyone! :cheers
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Hope I'm not forcing plays here by not waiting for the 2H of Oklahoma/UNC.

To win 1.25 units:

Oklahoma 1H +4 (Even)

ML (0.4 units to win 1.24 units):

Oklahoma ML +310


Reasons for playing this...

Initially leaned UNC, but given the spread/ML and a new appreciation for Oklahoma's big guards, I'm going with the Sooners. As long as Griffin stays out of trouble, I think Oklahoma can keep this one close. Sooners had some nice guard play against Syracuse. I think their big guards could give UNC some trouble, especially early on. And Tyler might not get special treatment, since he's playing against another star in Griffin. With the 1H number I don't have to worry about free throws at the end. I also think Oklahoma is capable of winning this game at least 1 out of 4 tries, so the +310 ML a value play in my opinion.

To win 0.75 unit:

Oklahoma/UNC 1H u77.5 (-105)

Again, I think Oklahoma guards give UNC trouble scoring.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 2 units:

Oklahoma/UNC 2H u82

1H: 52 Field Goal attempts, 15 Free Throw attempts (9 O-Boards; 4 for Oklahoma, 5 for UNC

To win 1 units:

Oklahoma +2 (+105)

+105 juice so I'll give this a shot. Capel seems like a solid coach. His team is still in this game and has physical talent. I think they can make this a game. The first half showed they have the athletes to play with the Heels.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

To win 1.5 units:
MSU/UConn 2H o72.5

1H: 63 Field Goal attempts, 18 Free Throw attempts (15 O-Boards; 9 for Michigan State, 6 for UConn).

To win 0.5 unit:

UConn 2H -5 (+105)

I'm rooting for Michigan State, but this bet is based strictly on the foul situation in a game that is otherwise pretty evenly matched.

Good luck tonight, everyone! :cheers

Note: Probably won't be around for the Nova/UNC 2H.
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Looks like I might lose the total bet, but either way... I played that for 2 units, and I'd like to track it that way. I was debating whether to play it for 1.5 or 2, while in the middle of a baseball draft. I will count it as 2 units in my stats (right now I need 25 points with less than 5 minutes left).
 
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GoonBets@Noon

EOG Veteran
Re: GB@N's NCAA Tourney Thread

Actually scratch that... I bet it in splits and after I decided to upsize from 1.5 to 2 units... I actually only entered a .25 unit bet (placing bets while doing something else is a terrible idea). Will score it as 1.75 units instead of 2, since I'm trying to keep track of what I actually bet.

UConn bet looks like it will lose, but I don't care... I was raised a Michigan State fan (even though I went to school elsewhere) and it was a really small bet... so I'm psyched about this result as is the rest of my family.

It's funny before the game I leaned toward MSU and the under, but I didn't place bets on either. Would've split that. After watching the first half and accounting for the foul situation, I bet on UConn and the over for the 2H.
 
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