MLB 2009
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: MLB 2009
Good luck this season, I'll be hanging out here along the way.
Good luck this season, I'll be hanging out here along the way.
Re: MLB 2009
ATX,
are you as strict with betting road favorites in baseball as you are with hoops, meaning few and far between to pull the trigger on these?
Seems like I am getting beat up a little bit taking these small road favs so far in the first few days of the season. Thinking about giving up on them all together.
I am always quick to point out to others to be very cautious of the small road favorite as typically you are getting the better team at the smaller price and it always looks so inticing to take them but historically this is the worst subset around.
ATX,
are you as strict with betting road favorites in baseball as you are with hoops, meaning few and far between to pull the trigger on these?
Seems like I am getting beat up a little bit taking these small road favs so far in the first few days of the season. Thinking about giving up on them all together.
I am always quick to point out to others to be very cautious of the small road favorite as typically you are getting the better team at the smaller price and it always looks so inticing to take them but historically this is the worst subset around.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
no, not nearly as strict. I'm not betting very many road favorites over -120. I know exactly which scenarios you are talking about and I usually do very well with those, but I bet a LOT of -1.5's on dogs which are prob close to 65% of what I bet, less than 10 over -140 all year typically. those -100 to -120 games, pinnacle has a lot of those right, I learned quickly not to bet -102 at pinnacle when -105 is W/A. in those situations I think one stat is skewed so much that one team looks like a lock, but when you weigh a lot of different things it's apparent that the value is actually on the other side, hence -102. and you can get some rather juicy -1.5's on this situation b/c the public is usually taking the other team -1.5 for a lot. playing poker, still. doing well, learning different games, worn out but want to find 3 things to bet on tomorrow in MLB.
no, not nearly as strict. I'm not betting very many road favorites over -120. I know exactly which scenarios you are talking about and I usually do very well with those, but I bet a LOT of -1.5's on dogs which are prob close to 65% of what I bet, less than 10 over -140 all year typically. those -100 to -120 games, pinnacle has a lot of those right, I learned quickly not to bet -102 at pinnacle when -105 is W/A. in those situations I think one stat is skewed so much that one team looks like a lock, but when you weigh a lot of different things it's apparent that the value is actually on the other side, hence -102. and you can get some rather juicy -1.5's on this situation b/c the public is usually taking the other team -1.5 for a lot. playing poker, still. doing well, learning different games, worn out but want to find 3 things to bet on tomorrow in MLB.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
thanks.
how are line moves on favorites doing so far? sometimes early in the season line moves on road favorites do well. since the NBA has a lot less to consider I'm going to try to bet MLB at least 3 times a week, and a lot of times its every day for a while, but I have to get out more before it hits 100 degrees here. my BR scale is usually something like .3/.1% on spread/-1.5ml on strong leans, .4/.2 on what I consider pretty good, and anything over that I like a lot. not very much over 1% and it's usually on dogs. totals I often give up half runs for + money, and I almost never bet -120 on totals.
thanks.
how are line moves on favorites doing so far? sometimes early in the season line moves on road favorites do well. since the NBA has a lot less to consider I'm going to try to bet MLB at least 3 times a week, and a lot of times its every day for a while, but I have to get out more before it hits 100 degrees here. my BR scale is usually something like .3/.1% on spread/-1.5ml on strong leans, .4/.2 on what I consider pretty good, and anything over that I like a lot. not very much over 1% and it's usually on dogs. totals I often give up half runs for + money, and I almost never bet -120 on totals.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
last year they weren't as good as in years past for me. I think the reduction in steroid use may cut back the profits on those this year as well. just guessing, but I'm probably going to bet a little less on -1.5alt's to start with for sure now that I think about it. I glanced at the lines today and they did look fairly low, and that is often an indication of home dogs doing profitably. I'll have to check out some other discussions in MLB from time to time b/c I don't have too many angles in baseball, looking for things outside of price would be beneficial imo.
last year they weren't as good as in years past for me. I think the reduction in steroid use may cut back the profits on those this year as well. just guessing, but I'm probably going to bet a little less on -1.5alt's to start with for sure now that I think about it. I glanced at the lines today and they did look fairly low, and that is often an indication of home dogs doing profitably. I'll have to check out some other discussions in MLB from time to time b/c I don't have too many angles in baseball, looking for things outside of price would be beneficial imo.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: MLB 2009
That said, does the opposite of steroid use begin to come into play, as in pitching becoming more of a weighted component to the equation. It would seem this would be consistent with your -1.5's. As well, under wagers also must be getting more attention by the lines makers.
That said, does the opposite of steroid use begin to come into play, as in pitching becoming more of a weighted component to the equation. It would seem this would be consistent with your -1.5's. As well, under wagers also must be getting more attention by the lines makers.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
not sure. I didn't have time to look at all the boxscores so far. pitchers abused steroids more than anyone but I think that would play out later in the season b/c juice aids recovery time as much as anything. as far as batting I think that far fewer infielders are going to hit 30 HR's so I'm guessing that runs might be slightly down in the beginning of the year and then at the end as pitching fades there might be a spike in run production. just guessing, but that's my starting point b/c I play -1.5's very similarly to ml's in NBA and NFL, but on almost every side.
not sure. I didn't have time to look at all the boxscores so far. pitchers abused steroids more than anyone but I think that would play out later in the season b/c juice aids recovery time as much as anything. as far as batting I think that far fewer infielders are going to hit 30 HR's so I'm guessing that runs might be slightly down in the beginning of the year and then at the end as pitching fades there might be a spike in run production. just guessing, but that's my starting point b/c I play -1.5's very similarly to ml's in NBA and NFL, but on almost every side.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
finally...
hero: button AcJc, calls over the gun and middle positions min raise
flop 8cQc10c
gun+1: bets pot * .1
middle: calls
hero: thinks about folding
turn: Kd
+2: bets .3 pot
middle: raises to pot 1.3
hero: hesitantly calls
gun: folds
river: Kc
middle: all in
hero: asks a more sober gf to double ck before absolutely calling.
2nd hand, hit quads, 3 full houses flopped, 2 sets, 4 trips, 3 straights, 3 flushes, AAx2, KKx1, QQx3, JJx1, two pair 2x but lost a big pot to K9 with my Kq after a K flopped and they rivered a 9. slow played AA both times nearly doubled up the first time, 2nd time was drawn out on by a straight for 10BB's. Sickest session yet and I buy in for about 3% of poker BR and left with 40% of BR between 3 tables.
finally...
hero: button AcJc, calls over the gun and middle positions min raise
flop 8cQc10c
gun+1: bets pot * .1
middle: calls
hero: thinks about folding
turn: Kd
+2: bets .3 pot
middle: raises to pot 1.3
hero: hesitantly calls
gun: folds
river: Kc
middle: all in
hero: asks a more sober gf to double ck before absolutely calling.
2nd hand, hit quads, 3 full houses flopped, 2 sets, 4 trips, 3 straights, 3 flushes, AAx2, KKx1, QQx3, JJx1, two pair 2x but lost a big pot to K9 with my Kq after a K flopped and they rivered a 9. slow played AA both times nearly doubled up the first time, 2nd time was drawn out on by a straight for 10BB's. Sickest session yet and I buy in for about 3% of poker BR and left with 40% of BR between 3 tables.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
Minnesota -1.5 +150 for .4%
Twolves have fairly strong home court, inexperienced pitcher going in there with a bad pen after x-inning game has this +135 or so imo. Argos have owned the Northstars lately but in rugby there are often streaks beginning after one ends, thinking Vikes may rattle off a few in a row vs. Raptors type of thing.
Minnesota -1.5 +150 for .4%
Twolves have fairly strong home court, inexperienced pitcher going in there with a bad pen after x-inning game has this +135 or so imo. Argos have owned the Northstars lately but in rugby there are often streaks beginning after one ends, thinking Vikes may rattle off a few in a row vs. Raptors type of thing.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
yeah, best online session by far. I was getting really sick cards and they were holding up, and was playing against players unfamilar with me. I could tell they wanted to call me a lot to see my cards and made it look like I was trying to steal a lot of pots. swings in poker are big. the day before I lost about 5% playing fairly well, just a little card dead and when I had something just didn't hold up. I'm doing very well, but I still have a LOT to learn, I'm spending at least 10-15 hrs a week studying the game, and over 60 hours a week playing the game usually 3 tabling. it's not too strange for me to lose close to 10% over a couple of hours then make 20% over the next dozen hands etc. I'm seeing quite a few hands, plugging leaks, trying different strategies. Once I show down a couple times with AQ or better it really opens things up. I love raising with 8/10 or 9/7 type hands, they are easy to get away from and since they are gapped they are harder to range. I've flopped/turned straights a few times with these hands and taken big stacks from players with a set.
yeah, best online session by far. I was getting really sick cards and they were holding up, and was playing against players unfamilar with me. I could tell they wanted to call me a lot to see my cards and made it look like I was trying to steal a lot of pots. swings in poker are big. the day before I lost about 5% playing fairly well, just a little card dead and when I had something just didn't hold up. I'm doing very well, but I still have a LOT to learn, I'm spending at least 10-15 hrs a week studying the game, and over 60 hours a week playing the game usually 3 tabling. it's not too strange for me to lose close to 10% over a couple of hours then make 20% over the next dozen hands etc. I'm seeing quite a few hands, plugging leaks, trying different strategies. Once I show down a couple times with AQ or better it really opens things up. I love raising with 8/10 or 9/7 type hands, they are easy to get away from and since they are gapped they are harder to range. I've flopped/turned straights a few times with these hands and taken big stacks from players with a set.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
Houston/Pitt over 9.5 +105 for .4%
possible it moves down to 9 but would not lay more than -110.
I would like to get 9 but not sure if I'll be around for it, I don't watch the screen all day for baseball moves. looked at a few other things, seems like quite a few of these pitchers are newish, not as familiar with them, still a little early to have a whole lot to go on.
Houston/Pitt over 9.5 +105 for .4%
possible it moves down to 9 but would not lay more than -110.
I would like to get 9 but not sure if I'll be around for it, I don't watch the screen all day for baseball moves. looked at a few other things, seems like quite a few of these pitchers are newish, not as familiar with them, still a little early to have a whole lot to go on.
Re: MLB 2009
I know you are not into situational capping so much with baseball (I am not much either) but look at what the Cards are facing here today. They have to fly out of Arizona yesterday all the way to Chicago to play an afternoon game with no day off in between. Can't imagine they got into town till late last night and have to be at the ballpark early for todays afternoon start. They havent had a day off this year yet.
The big thing though is Cards are top offensive team in NL against RH pitching but against LH hey are very average to even below average. Big dropoff when they face a LH starter.
97 win Cubs team should be able to win this game 55% of the time or higher you would think. -110 a good price on Chicago here, IMO.
I know you are not into situational capping so much with baseball (I am not much either) but look at what the Cards are facing here today. They have to fly out of Arizona yesterday all the way to Chicago to play an afternoon game with no day off in between. Can't imagine they got into town till late last night and have to be at the ballpark early for todays afternoon start. They havent had a day off this year yet.
The big thing though is Cards are top offensive team in NL against RH pitching but against LH hey are very average to even below average. Big dropoff when they face a LH starter.
97 win Cubs team should be able to win this game 55% of the time or higher you would think. -110 a good price on Chicago here, IMO.
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
I was thinking about the Cubs being a little low. I just don't really have enough to go on with Marshall. I like the fairly low walks + hits these pitchers typically give up. I'm not very strong on this, and I hate going against line moves on totals with the wind in Wrigley, but I see 5-10 cents here. I usually play a lot more sides than totals, but so far just don't see a lot that I wouldn't be simply gambling on. I really don't look at travel schedules with baseball very much. I've heard mixed reviews regarding a team's first home game after a successful road trip type stuff, but to be honest I don't even look at starters being out.
I was thinking about the Cubs being a little low. I just don't really have enough to go on with Marshall. I like the fairly low walks + hits these pitchers typically give up. I'm not very strong on this, and I hate going against line moves on totals with the wind in Wrigley, but I see 5-10 cents here. I usually play a lot more sides than totals, but so far just don't see a lot that I wouldn't be simply gambling on. I really don't look at travel schedules with baseball very much. I've heard mixed reviews regarding a team's first home game after a successful road trip type stuff, but to be honest I don't even look at starters being out.
Re: MLB 2009
4-0 on my baseball plays for the 1st 5 innings today
0-3-1 on full game results
If it wasn't for the low juice I would probably go 1st 5 innings instead of games on every play I made. It seems so much easier to cap. I am honestly considering it. Wondering your thoughts.
I mean so much time and enerygy is put into these starting pitchers and they aren't pitching 30-40% of some of these games.
Seems like most stuff goes according to plan early on and the wheels come off late in games. Maybe I am just imagining that. I just don't spend the time capping the bullpens and it is half the game. Something i need to work on I guess.
Not complaining as I am off to a good start on the baseball season, I am just pissed dogs are 4-0 so far today and haven't cashed a tickt yet, LOL (played some totals also).
4-0 on my baseball plays for the 1st 5 innings today
0-3-1 on full game results
If it wasn't for the low juice I would probably go 1st 5 innings instead of games on every play I made. It seems so much easier to cap. I am honestly considering it. Wondering your thoughts.
I mean so much time and enerygy is put into these starting pitchers and they aren't pitching 30-40% of some of these games.
Seems like most stuff goes according to plan early on and the wheels come off late in games. Maybe I am just imagining that. I just don't spend the time capping the bullpens and it is half the game. Something i need to work on I guess.
Not complaining as I am off to a good start on the baseball season, I am just pissed dogs are 4-0 so far today and haven't cashed a tickt yet, LOL (played some totals also).
ATX
2
Re: MLB 2009
it's still a little too early for me to like anything too much. I usually pick up momentum between the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NBA playoffs. I'm a lot more focused on the NBA right now and will just hunt and peck with baseball all year. When football starts I will care very little about baseball. baseball is a lot like most poker games, somewhat boring most of the time but profitable. once I get a little more IP's out of the starters the odds get a little better IMO. I haven't looked at 1st half baseball too much but I think I would be maybe a little better with it than full games. What I use is starting pitcher heavy.
it's still a little too early for me to like anything too much. I usually pick up momentum between the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NBA playoffs. I'm a lot more focused on the NBA right now and will just hunt and peck with baseball all year. When football starts I will care very little about baseball. baseball is a lot like most poker games, somewhat boring most of the time but profitable. once I get a little more IP's out of the starters the odds get a little better IMO. I haven't looked at 1st half baseball too much but I think I would be maybe a little better with it than full games. What I use is starting pitcher heavy.