cassiusclay mlb season thread

cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

34-26-1 (+59.2)

phils +115 (4)

ryan howard in his home town, he'll have a big night tonight

over colorado 7 1/2 (4)
over atlanta 9 1/2 (3)
over pitt 8 1/2 (3)
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

I'm gonna post some articles I have read in this thread, this one was posted at Doc's Sports

Sports betting tip #1 - Money Management
This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting sports and possibly the most neglected. The first key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If you are going to bet on sports, it is important to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and to stick with that bankroll, win or lose. Winning money on sports is not a sprint. If you bet your whole bankroll on one game and lose, you will be more likely to try and chase your losses. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework. Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses? Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak.
Sports betting tip #2 - Shopping for Numbers
The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss.
Sports betting tip #3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence
There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window.
Sports betting tip #4 - Do your Homework
As a bettor, you have the advantage of streamlining your research, which is something the sports books are not at liberty to do. They must keep on top of EVERY sport and EVERY game. The best way to win money betting sports is to develop a niche and follow it closely. If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.
Sports betting tip #5 - Check the Odds
Some sports books have better odds on parlays and teasers. When you are betting big bucks the difference in odds translate into a huge difference in your payout. All it takes is a little research of the sports books you usually bet at. Most books have their payout odds listed in way that is easy for the bettor to find them. It should be noted that we advise against playing parlays and teasers for the most part. (Especially anything over a 2-teamer)
Sports betting tip #6 - Play Home Dogs
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home. Teams play inspired ball at home. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.
Sports betting tip #7 - Bet at the Right Time
The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early. Squares usually bet later in the day (or week, for football) and they tend to pick the favorites. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the Pros are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.
There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Hey willy, did you read my post in your tracker thread. You have an unders ump in that Atlanta game as well. Doesnt mean it wont go over but its just a thought.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

ballwonder said:
Hey willy, did you read my post in your tracker thread. You have an unders ump in that Atlanta game as well. Doesnt mean it wont go over but its just a thought.
Click to expand...

i have no confidence in that crap, i think it's a good reference tool but that's it (maybe tomorrow i'll change my mind if the game goes under 12io4j2w90).

also, i have been using gyno's system in the Shrink Contest, it's not working so well.

i'm just gonna stick with what i have been doing and try and make those $$$$'s
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Yeah the ump report is a tool for the tool box that is all. No one should just make a play due to an ump. Alot of other factors as well. Ie: Pitchers data, game time weather etc. JMO.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

with a 8-5 lead after 6 innings i might be the only person worried that the nats will not hold on.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

phils +235 (5)
over 8 1/2 (5)

either the phils win in a low scoring game of Park gets blown out and the game goes over, gonna take a big swing at this one.
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Clay considering the Phils road record, you got one live dog there. If the chinaman can hold his own today we shall see. Just for you when I get find out who is behind the plate I will let you know, I am sure it will make your day.


:cocktail
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

ballwonder said:
Clay considering the Phils road record, you got one live dog there. If the chinaman can hold his own today we shall see. Just for you when I get find out who is behind the plate I will let you know, I am sure it will make your day.


:cocktail
Click to expand...

I think tonight is the night that Park settles down....
 
Finance

Finance

EOG Veteran
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

How could you not take a stab at the Phils at that price - who in the world would lay the wood with the Mets???
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Phils must have left their bats back in Philly.....Park lives to pitch another day...
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Here is an article I read this morning.....

Betting on baseball is not as popular with the general public as betting on football. However, many professional sports bettors consider it to be one of the best ways to make money since it is one of the easiest sports to handicap. There are also many games every day of the season to choose from when making a wager which means that players can be more selective in choosing their games. The Nevada Sportsbooks are usually just happy to break even for the baseball season. Here a few winning tips I like to follow when I bet on Baseball.
1. Avoid the Early Season

A successful professional sports bettor I know will not bet any games prior to June for several reasons.
Early in the season the weather can be bad at certain parks.
Some managers are still experimenting with their line ups.
Many good pitchers get off to a slow start at the beginning of the season.
Spend the first few weeks studying the teams rather than betting them. The baseball season is long and there will be plenty of opportunities for betting the games.
2. Bet the Underdogs

Most professional sports bettors will tell you that the secret to winning is to bet the underdog. When you bet the money line on the underdog you are risking less to win more. The best baseball teams lose at least sixty games a year and the worst teams win close to that same number. The rest of the league falls somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you'll need to break even. The money line in baseball is always set by the starting pitcher of the teams involved. Look beyond the pitching to the teams other strengths to make your decision.
3. Consider Streaks

After a favorite has won three games in a row you should lay off betting them at all costs. The odds stack up heavily against you in this situation. The same can be said about teams that are involved in a three-game loosing streak. You should also only bet a team that has won their last game. The mental attitude of a team that is coming off a win is better than after a loss.
4. Pitchers

Bet on a team whose pitcher did well in his last game. Pitchers usually work every fourth day. If a pitcher got clobbered in his last outing he may not be mentally ready to pitch again. You should also consider the team’s relief pitcher. If a relief pitcher for a team has been overworked in his last two games you might want to avoid that team. You should also consider the pitcher from the other team. When two top pitchers go head to head it could come down to a single mistake to decide the game. I would rather bet a top pitcher going against a lesser one than bet on two great pitchers dueling it out.

5. Compare the Teams

Baseball is more than just pitching. You need to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. How do the starting players match up against each other? Some teams are more offensive with great hitters , while other teams are stronger in the field playing defense.
6. Consider the Park

Home field advantage is not as important in baseball as it is in football but you should still consider the ball park. Some teams play better in some parks than others. Some players just can’t seem to hit well in certain parks. Some parks have their own quirks such as the short left field at Fenway in Boston.
7. Shop for the Best Line

Shop around for the best money lines. Some Sportsbooks are offering 20 cent money lines while others are offering 10 cent lines (also called a dime-line). Many of the local casinos are offering 10 cent lines while most of the casinos on The Strip are offering 20 cent lines. Dime lines are great for the player because the house edge is smaller and you win more when you bet the underdog. Example: The Yankees are plus 140 over the Boston. If you bet the Yankees and they lose you are minus $140. If you bet Boston and they win you would be paid $130 with a dime line but would be paid only $120 with a 20 cent line.

8. Avoid Rivalries

Some teams have a natural rivalry with each other such as the Yankees and Red Sox or Giants and the Dodgers. When these rivals play they are usually up for the game and play their best. I like to avoid these teams when they play each other.
9. Injuries to the Starting Line Up

Make sure there are no injuries in the starting line up. In a game that could be decided by defense you want to make sure the key players are healthy. Never back a team unless it can put its top players on the filed. A substitute for a key player could have timing that is just off a little from not playing a steady basis.
10. Discipline

They key to winning at any form of gambling comes down to discipline. In Sports betting the biggest mistake that most players make is betting too many games. Players are on a winning streak may get greedy and decide to bet more games. Don’t chase your losses. Some players will bet more in hope of recouping a previous loss. This will usually lead to disaster. You should have a game plan and stick to it. Bet with your head not your heart. Don’t bet on a team just because they happen to be your favorite or because the game is on television. Bet on a team only when you determine it has the best chance of winning.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Last night's game was a shame, in retrospect playing the phils and the under should have been the right way to play that game...onto today.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Finance said:
Hey man - where are you finding all of these articles???
Click to expand...

i'm a google junky (spawned by Wilson), type in obscure terms, you would be surprised what comes up...gotta look through a ton of tout stuff but always good info, I will keep on posting what I find, I try to read at least one article every morning.
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

junkman773 said:
Good Stuff Clay Mistakes cost us the big cash
Click to expand...

a buddy of mine who i consider to be "sharp" called me last night and pointed out that taking phils and under would have been a "sharp" call.....i asked him what he had in the game and he told me he had the under.....2938u4ji23
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Some totals to look at today claybird.....

Balt over
Atlanta over
Colorado over
Texas over


Not gimme's but take a peak......
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

over balt 10 1/2 (3)
over colorado 9 1/2 (3)
over texas 9 1/2 (3)
over phils 10 (5)

i'm riding your wave ballwonder...riding your wave
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: cassiusclay mlb season thread

Off to a good start with the exception of the Atlanta game. I tailed you on those Phils, I think you nail it tonight. Lets bring home the bacon with Balt as well.
 
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