Re: How do the Phillies keep throwing Moyer out to the mound?
http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/clog/2009/08/10/was-sundays-start-jamie-moyers-last/
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Jamie Moyer,
the Ancient Mariner of the Phillies rotation, is presently mired in what very well could be his worst full season in the majors. His
start yesterday (5 IP and 97 imminently hittable pitches resulting in 11 H, 1K, 1BB, 3R) did not inspire overwhelming confidence in his abilities henceforth ? though to be sure things only really fell apart for the team after he left the game.
When this happens to players in their 40s, it's often a signal that their days of defying the normal career trajectory are done. And with the Phillies staring at a starting roation logjam, the speculation that Jamie Moyer's long, crazy run into his mid 40s may be over
is becoming conventional wisdom.
Except that Moyer's been here before. His age-44 season during which he went 14-12 but with a 5.01 ERA seemed to suggest a pitcher and the end of his powers. Except that that age-44 season (2007) also corresponded with his highest strikeout rate since he was a young turk of 35. His age 45 season was last year's excellent 16-win, 3.71 ERA campaign.
Then there was his dreadful age-37 season: 13-10 but with a terrible 5.49 ERA. Of course, his age-38 season saw him log his first 20-win season with a 3.43 ERA that was good enough for fourth place in the American League Cy Young voting.
All of which is to say that Moyer's got a history of both defying the odds and of following up lackluster (okay, lousy) seasons with strong ones. The problem is that those lousy seasons seem to be coming more frequently as he ages.
Is Moyer done? Of is he simply gearing up for the best age-47 season ever? Moyer's list of comparables
is pretty short, and full of freaks of nature like Nolan Ryan and Tommy John and knuckleballers like Phil Niekro and Charlie Hough. Moyer's best comparison is
Tommy John, based on career length and repertoire. John had solid age-43 and age-44 seasons, then stunk in his age-45 season and fell off a cliff at 46.
Of course, Baseball Prospectus's
PECOTA projection system says Moyer will still be employable, albeit barely, at age 48 and still half a win better than replacement level
next year (though, per their accounting, certainly not worth the $6.5 million he'll be paid).
But John's career is nowhere near a perfect analog for Moyer's, which is to say we're in uncharted water here.
Sayeth the folks at Prospectus:
How old is Moyer? So old that PECOTA figures his only peers are two knuckleballers, a guy who liked to say that his surgically repaired left arm was 20 years younger than he was, and a victim of the color line who was a Rookie of the Year candidate at 41 and pitched three scoreless innings at 58. Wouldja believe Moyer had the third-highest strikeout rate of his career last year, trailing only those of 1987 and 1998? He also had his highest walk rate since 2000. That's right, folks: Moyer has been around so long he's actually wrapped around and restarted as a power pitcher (not really). That's not to say Moyer didn't show signs of the inevitable last year: his season began with a string of seven consecutive quality starts, but thereafter he posted a 5.65 ERA as he lost consistency. When he was good, he was very good. When he was bad, it was time to warm up the TiVo and watch an old Hitchcock film. Moyer probably has more of the same in him in this, the last year of his contract. The real question is when the injury termites will finally start gnawing.
What would you do if you were in Ruben Amaro's shoes?
-Move Moyer to the bullpen?
-Gently persuade Moyer to retire?
-Hide Moyer on the disabled list in case Pedro Martinez flops in the fifth starter role?
-Other?