Top 4 capoff standings
- Thread starter diogee
- Start date
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Haha, that ranks in the top 3 of your most funny posts of all time. :cheers
ballwonder
EOG Master
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
I have been making a shitload of money fading all of you guys since the start. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Ball
I have been making a shitload of money fading all of you guys since the start. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Ball
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Haha, how did you know this would happen? And what do you make of this, did we all just get lucky through the first 60? Or in my case 62?
Haha, how did you know this would happen? And what do you make of this, did we all just get lucky through the first 60? Or in my case 62?
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
BSH, I was thinking about this today. The math shows that, all things considered, the records the top players had (and have now) are completely expected. It's all normal. You can look at it a couple of different ways: on one hand, the final four may just all be lucky winners of positive random variance (somebody had to win, by pure chance, and we are it); the other hand, which can not be discounted, is that one or more of the final four is actually good. What that means instead of four lucky dudes making it to the end, one or more of them actually is a good bettor and had an average performance in the contest. There's no way to know for sure, but the recent picks of the top players would lean toward the 4 lucky dudes scenario, but such a conclusion would be unfounded, considering the small sample size.
BSH, I was thinking about this today. The math shows that, all things considered, the records the top players had (and have now) are completely expected. It's all normal. You can look at it a couple of different ways: on one hand, the final four may just all be lucky winners of positive random variance (somebody had to win, by pure chance, and we are it); the other hand, which can not be discounted, is that one or more of the final four is actually good. What that means instead of four lucky dudes making it to the end, one or more of them actually is a good bettor and had an average performance in the contest. There's no way to know for sure, but the recent picks of the top players would lean toward the 4 lucky dudes scenario, but such a conclusion would be unfounded, considering the small sample size.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Solid post, i lean with 1 decent dude, 2 lucky dudes, and 1 horrible dude. Put the names where you feel necessary.
Solid post, i lean with 1 decent dude, 2 lucky dudes, and 1 horrible dude. Put the names where you feel necessary.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Uh oh, karma came to get me tonight.
Uh oh, karma came to get me tonight.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Beedo, i know you're lurking. Whats going on?
Beedo, i know you're lurking. Whats going on?
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
After Tuesday, May 26 plays:
1. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
2. BrickShitHouse, 4-9, -3.53
3. Bailey, 4-9, -4.35
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Angels -1.5 +116 LOSER -1.00
Redsox -113 LOSER -1.13
Today: 0-2, -2.13
Previous total: 4-7, -1.40
Total: 4-9, -3.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
Cincinnati Reds +112 WINNER +1.12
Today: 1-0, +1.12
Previous total: 5-8, -3.11
Total: 6-8, -1.99
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
903 Houston -120 LOSER -1.20
906 Mets -1.5 +139 WINNER +1.39
919 Toronto -1.5 +139 LOSER -1.00
924 Minn +105 WINNER +1.05
928 LAA -1.5 +116 LOSER -1.00
Today: 2-3, -0.76
Previous total: 2-6, -3.59
Total: 4-9, -4.35
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
Cubs ml -156 WINNER +1.00 // this ML went over 4.5 innings, with home team leading.
Marlins ml +138 LOSER -1.00
Dodgers ml +142 WINNER +1.42
Giants rl -1.5 +132 WINNER +1.32
A's rl -1.5 +152 LOSER -1.00
Today: 3-2, +1.74
Previous total: 0-9,-9.00
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
After Tuesday, May 26 plays:
1. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
2. BrickShitHouse, 4-9, -3.53
3. Bailey, 4-9, -4.35
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Angels -1.5 +116 LOSER -1.00
Redsox -113 LOSER -1.13
Today: 0-2, -2.13
Previous total: 4-7, -1.40
Total: 4-9, -3.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
Cincinnati Reds +112 WINNER +1.12
Today: 1-0, +1.12
Previous total: 5-8, -3.11
Total: 6-8, -1.99
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
903 Houston -120 LOSER -1.20
906 Mets -1.5 +139 WINNER +1.39
919 Toronto -1.5 +139 LOSER -1.00
924 Minn +105 WINNER +1.05
928 LAA -1.5 +116 LOSER -1.00
Today: 2-3, -0.76
Previous total: 2-6, -3.59
Total: 4-9, -4.35
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
Cubs ml -156 WINNER +1.00 // this ML went over 4.5 innings, with home team leading.
Marlins ml +138 LOSER -1.00
Dodgers ml +142 WINNER +1.42
Giants rl -1.5 +132 WINNER +1.32
A's rl -1.5 +152 LOSER -1.00
Today: 3-2, +1.74
Previous total: 0-9,-9.00
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ballwonder
EOG Master
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Tuckman is sinking like a brick shit house.....
Tuckman is sinking like a brick shit house.....
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
I was expecting to get home and see that you copied all of my plays, glad that wasnt the case. This is about to get interesting.Looks like BSH and Bailey are a combined 4-1, +3.87 after the afternoon games and both are set to have good (or great) days heading into the evening games.op:
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
:+textinb3 I wouldn't resort to such tactics and hopefully neither will anyone else.
:+textinb3 I wouldn't resort to such tactics and hopefully neither will anyone else.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Its a good idea actually, just not when it happens to you. But thats when the posting at the last minute and editing comes into play on the last day. Assuming i still have plays left. I might sit out tomorrow depending on how tonight goes.
Its a good idea actually, just not when it happens to you. But thats when the posting at the last minute and editing comes into play on the last day. Assuming i still have plays left. I might sit out tomorrow depending on how tonight goes.
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
After Wednesday, May 27:
1. Bailey, 7-10, -0.94
2. BrickShitHouse, 7-10, -1.53
3. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
953 Pitt +158 LOSER -1.00
962 Cincy -1.5 +154 WINNER +1.54
969 Detroit -1.5 +147 WINNER +1.47
971 Seattle -1.5 +140 WINNER +1.40
Today: 3-1, +3.41
Previous total: 4-9, -4.35
Total: 7-10, -0.94
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Mets -1.5 -115 WINNER +1.00
Cubs -166 WINNER +1.00
Braves -1.5 +157 LOSER -1.00
Mariners -117 WINNER +1.00
Today: 3-1, +2.00
Previous total: 4-9, -3.53
Total: 7-10, -1.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 6-8, -1.99
Total: 6-8, -1.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 3-11, -7.26
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
After Wednesday, May 27:
1. Bailey, 7-10, -0.94
2. BrickShitHouse, 7-10, -1.53
3. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
953 Pitt +158 LOSER -1.00
962 Cincy -1.5 +154 WINNER +1.54
969 Detroit -1.5 +147 WINNER +1.47
971 Seattle -1.5 +140 WINNER +1.40
Today: 3-1, +3.41
Previous total: 4-9, -4.35
Total: 7-10, -0.94
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Mets -1.5 -115 WINNER +1.00
Cubs -166 WINNER +1.00
Braves -1.5 +157 LOSER -1.00
Mariners -117 WINNER +1.00
Today: 3-1, +2.00
Previous total: 4-9, -3.53
Total: 7-10, -1.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 6-8, -1.99
Total: 6-8, -1.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 3-11, -7.26
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Think im done making picks until the last day. Good luck when you decide to unload beedo.
Think im done making picks until the last day. Good luck when you decide to unload beedo.
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
After Thursday, May 28:
1. BrickShitHouse, 8-10, -0.13
2. Bailey, 7-11, -1.94
3. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Redsox -1.5 +140 WINNER +1.40
Today: 1-0, +1.40
Previous total: 7-10, -1.53
Total: 8-10, -0.13
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
905 Tampa Bay Rays J. Niemann -1.5 +141 LOSER -1.00
Today: 0-1, -1.00
Previous total: 7-10, -0.94
Total: 7-11, -1.94
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 6-8, -1.99
Total: 6-8, -1.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 3-11, -7.26
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
After Thursday, May 28:
1. BrickShitHouse, 8-10, -0.13
2. Bailey, 7-11, -1.94
3. beedo, 6-8, -1.99
4. Tuckman, 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BrickShitHouse:
Redsox -1.5 +140 WINNER +1.40
Today: 1-0, +1.40
Previous total: 7-10, -1.53
Total: 8-10, -0.13
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bailey:
905 Tampa Bay Rays J. Niemann -1.5 +141 LOSER -1.00
Today: 0-1, -1.00
Previous total: 7-10, -0.94
Total: 7-11, -1.94
----------------------------------------------------------------------
beedo:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 6-8, -1.99
Total: 6-8, -1.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuckman:
no picks
Today: 0-0, 0.00
Previous total: 3-11, -7.26
Total: 3-11, -7.26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cannon
Banned
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Bailey I think your best chance to win would be to bet two huge favorites before the last day say -200 or more go 2-0. Finish at +.06 force Brick to win the last day. Then you will force Brick to have to win .20 units to beat you forcing him to have to go 2-0 on favorites. Best of luck hope you win this for the second time.
Bailey I think your best chance to win would be to bet two huge favorites before the last day say -200 or more go 2-0. Finish at +.06 force Brick to win the last day. Then you will force Brick to have to win .20 units to beat you forcing him to have to go 2-0 on favorites. Best of luck hope you win this for the second time.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Beedo, are you buying Adam Meyer's service for the last of your picks? Your absence has me wondering whats going on?
Beedo, are you buying Adam Meyer's service for the last of your picks? Your absence has me wondering whats going on?
Cannon
Banned
beedo
2
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
:LMAO oh, hell no
Probably going wait until the last day, maybe one or two on Saturday. :cheers
:LMAO oh, hell no
Probably going wait until the last day, maybe one or two on Saturday. :cheers
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Quit giving him false hope, im going to be right there to copy his picks. And if im not, i will go 1 for 2 on runline teams and sneak by.
Cannon
Banned
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Bailey
it will be interesting how you play this. If Brick goes 1-1 he will finish perhaps at + .18 you will need a +2.22 to win I think. I might take the big favorite Philly -238 and hope to get a win. If they lose you will be done but if they hit you will need a +1.22 dog Sunday. If Brick goes 2-0 you will have an impossible chance to win.
Bailey
it will be interesting how you play this. If Brick goes 1-1 he will finish perhaps at + .18 you will need a +2.22 to win I think. I might take the big favorite Philly -238 and hope to get a win. If they lose you will be done but if they hit you will need a +1.22 dog Sunday. If Brick goes 2-0 you will have an impossible chance to win.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Let the booze decide my fate...oops.
Let the booze decide my fate...oops.
Bailey
EOG Addicted
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Cannon,I've decided to find 1 play for today.I'm just going to play the game I feel best about and go from there.If Brick goes 2-0 I'm done .I've gotta hope he goes 1-1 and I hit the game I decide to play.Beedo is the one with the best chance I think with his 6 plays.I think he said he was waiting until Sunday and play all 6.Hopefully the play I will have left tomorrow will mean something.
As an aside although I didn't agree with the playoff it has been run well.Diogee and Beedo have updated standings on a daily basis.It has been fun and everyone(even Tuck after 0-10 start)still has a chance.Good luck to everyone on their final picks
Cannon,I've decided to find 1 play for today.I'm just going to play the game I feel best about and go from there.If Brick goes 2-0 I'm done .I've gotta hope he goes 1-1 and I hit the game I decide to play.Beedo is the one with the best chance I think with his 6 plays.I think he said he was waiting until Sunday and play all 6.Hopefully the play I will have left tomorrow will mean something.
As an aside although I didn't agree with the playoff it has been run well.Diogee and Beedo have updated standings on a daily basis.It has been fun and everyone(even Tuck after 0-10 start)still has a chance.Good luck to everyone on their final picks
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Alright Bailey, good luck on your final plays. But i do have one question for you. Why do you think Beedo has the best chance with his remaining plays? He is going backwards in units, do you just have a hunch that he will hit for a few units?
Alright Bailey, good luck on your final plays. But i do have one question for you. Why do you think Beedo has the best chance with his remaining plays? He is going backwards in units, do you just have a hunch that he will hit for a few units?
Bailey
EOG Addicted
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
I know I'd feel better with 6 picks but then again with the way we've all been picking so poorly maybe its not an advantage.Also looking at tomorrows card I know I wouldn't want to make 6 picks from the matchups I see.Not much stands out on Sunday for me.
I know I'd feel better with 6 picks but then again with the way we've all been picking so poorly maybe its not an advantage.Also looking at tomorrows card I know I wouldn't want to make 6 picks from the matchups I see.Not much stands out on Sunday for me.
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
Didnt notice until now, but you have me in a bad spot if you win tonights and i go 1-1. You can pick the biggest fave tomorrow and barely beat me.
Didnt notice until now, but you have me in a bad spot if you win tonights and i go 1-1. You can pick the biggest fave tomorrow and barely beat me.
Cannon
Banned
Re: Top 4 capoff standings
If Brick goes 1-1 he ends up with +.17 or + .18
If Bailey hits his play he will be at - .81 Then he has to win one unit Sunday for + .19 and he beats Brick. Tuck would have to go 6-0 so no chance for him unless Brick goes 0-2 and I think he still has no chance because they both have Texas.
If Brick goes 1-1 he ends up with +.17 or + .18
If Bailey hits his play he will be at - .81 Then he has to win one unit Sunday for + .19 and he beats Brick. Tuck would have to go 6-0 so no chance for him unless Brick goes 0-2 and I think he still has no chance because they both have Texas.