Week 9 MLB action...

Re: Week 9 MLB action...

:LMAOI knew that was coming.

Heres why.... Theres a pitchers revenge angle (Corriea vs Scherzer) which would signal a play on Correia for revenge that I do not like to go against. It is usually a good one to bet on. In this case I just cant back Padres at this time either. I also dont feel Im getting very good value laying juice on a road team like the D-Backs. They are still young and dumb and just not a reliable enough team to lay juice on the road in my opinion. Might have overlooked this with the way SD is slumping if that pitching angle wasnt hanging over this one though. Tomorrow Ill start looking at the matchup for Sunday with a mind to go against SD again.

All said .... SD sucks right now.
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

The value is gone because SD is playing horrible right now.. In all honesty the line should be about EV -105 both sides.
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

I agree but Im not feeling it for tomorrow and that pitchers revenge angle is one that I have come to give a bit of respect to. I figure I can take it if AZ wins anyway but I would really kick myself in the ass for ignoring what I consider a red flag and then lose. I dont lose what I dont play is the tack Im taking with this game.
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

960 - Cincy +116 vs Cubs

Rookie debut pitcher possesses the kind of numbers I like to see with a good/decent team as a home dog. I see both sides offensive struggles as wash. Maybe a small edge to the Reds for being at home. Dempster has slipped down a level this year and has really only given one remarkable road start this year (out of five if memory serves me correctly). This game could be a coin flip but I think the newness of the rookie pitcher and home field gives the advantage to Cincy with a very good value.

This play is for 1.5 units. For the record.
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

1-0 for Saturday (+1.74 units).....a cheezy sweep but good enough to get my gun back. :+textinb3

Not an easy winner with the Reds but I can say that they never trailed. Good poise on rookie Maloneys part, but bigger props to some great defense to save his gizzard. Not thrilled with Maloneys stuff (no real ability to dominate and patient hitting should get to him a majority of the time).I probably wont back him in his next start. Biggest worry, in my mind, is that the Reds offense looks very uncertain and lacking in aggression and confidence. A sort of play "not to lose" rather than a "play to win" aura looms. I will probably look to fade them in the right spots for a while.

Passed on a lot of tempting games for tomorrow. A handful big dogs that look like great values with a chance to win are: KC,Texas,Florida, and TB.

As much as I wanted to play these I just kept finding a point or two against them. Im really trying to tighten up my standards and it seems to be working.

Sunday action:

909 - Colorado +120 @ STL (1.3 units)

Rockies seem to like hitting here. Maybe something to do with the new coaching. Seems to be a catalyst half the time for lots of teams. Cards run production really lagging. Been looking for spots to fade STL and just couldnt do it with the Rockies before now. Big pitching mismatch in my opinion (but Piniero can pull a rabbit out of his ass from time to time) and the hitting of both teams looks to be moving in opposite directions. Love to go against home teams to get swept when they are struggling offensively. The pressure of a home sweep only compounds the problem most of the time.

915 - Philly +118 @ LA Dodgers (1.3 units)

Philly started two pitchers I thought LA should be able to get to in thier last two games. LA still failed to impress me. From what I know they are capable of, I have to say they still appear to be in a relative slump and are very fadeable. Philly rookie Bastardo looked very impressive. He was uncharacteristically (according to his K/BB stats in double and triple A) wild in his first start, but showed poise and an ability to dominate. One must assess that he was understandably nervous. I respect Randy Wolfe but Philly has gotten to good and relatively better stuff than he has on this west coast road trip. I also have a hunch that the Phils have come out west with a chip on thier shoulder with all the hullaballoo about LA having the best record in the MLB. I doubt there will be any kind of letdown on an ESPN Sunday night game. This should be thier best effort of the series.

Good luck and Peace.
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

NattyBumpo;2194600 [B said:
909 - Colorado +120 @ STL (1.3 units)[/B]

Rockies seem to like hitting here. Maybe something to do with the new coaching. Seems to be a catalyst half the time for lots of teams. Cards run production really lagging. Been looking for spots to fade STL and just couldnt do it with the Rockies before now. Big pitching mismatch in my opinion (but Piniero can pull a rabbit out of his ass from time to time) and the hitting of both teams looks to be moving in opposite directions. Love to go against home teams to get swept when they are struggling offensively. The pressure of a home sweep only compounds the problem most of the time.

Embarrassing oversight here. This is a four game series. Still think the pressure is on but its still not the same. I still would have bet this game though. Just a point I thought made it a little bit stronger.

I will usually avoid betting on a team to get a four game sweep (should the Rockies win). Lots of reasons and a few exceptions but I will leave that dissertation for another day.
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

2-0 for Sunday (+3.09 units)

15-7 for week 9 (+13.52 units)

123-136-2 (+5.42 units) overall for the season.

What a relief to be in the black again! Wont feel good til I break .500 on my W/L record. Obviously the units will be there but I feel I need to have a better record for respectabitly.
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Bet all you want on the Rockies tomorrow.. I'm going to have a ton on the Cards and my luck is morbid..
 

bigdeal

EOG Member
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Natty man you're just killing it at the moment.

Well done brother.

91023i2ndw;l
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

natty is the man, I told myself to follow him during his bad luck streak cause I knew he'd get out of it.. Of course I forgot too.. My life sucks
 
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Bet all you want on the Rockies tomorrow.. I'm going to have a ton on the Cards and my luck is morbid..

No play on this one here. The four game sweep by Colorado is a tough one to envision. Thompson looked decent his last start and Marquis is a bit of a wild card. Good luck.
 

Apple

Banned
Re: Week 9 MLB action...

Doesn't matter, Rockies bats are getting singles at will and the Cards are playing like a AAA team..
 
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