Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
- Thread starter THE SHRINK
- Start date
The Noob
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Thanks Shrink12io4j2w90,
For me equal bets are the key to my money management. If I really feel strongly about a game then I will bet it for 2 units, but that only happens 3 or 4 times a season.
Thanks Shrink12io4j2w90,
For me equal bets are the key to my money management. If I really feel strongly about a game then I will bet it for 2 units, but that only happens 3 or 4 times a season.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Shrink,
From your experience around larger online gamblers, specifically online gambling winners, how do they handle taxes? Do they typically meticulously follow all of the reporting guidelines?
With the reporting standards for poker, it is almost impossible to not file as a professional gambler and not pay 80% of your net winnings to the IRS. This is because you are taxed on each individual winning session and can't write off all of your losses. Russell Fox has a site devoted to this and his advice is quite grim for the winners in terms of how much you lose. Any info you have on how winners that you know handle this would be helpful. Have you heard of any audits and results?
Shrink,
From your experience around larger online gamblers, specifically online gambling winners, how do they handle taxes? Do they typically meticulously follow all of the reporting guidelines?
With the reporting standards for poker, it is almost impossible to not file as a professional gambler and not pay 80% of your net winnings to the IRS. This is because you are taxed on each individual winning session and can't write off all of your losses. Russell Fox has a site devoted to this and his advice is quite grim for the winners in terms of how much you lose. Any info you have on how winners that you know handle this would be helpful. Have you heard of any audits and results?
Doug
2
Blondie
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Personally, I have had to declare my gambling winnings each year for the past decade. I was informed from my both my attorney and accountant to be as diligent, thorough, complete and honest as possible.
It has also been alleged that the largely unsupervised electronic funds transfers inherent in online gambling are being exploited by criminal interests to launder large amounts of money.
Therefore, I do not want to spend time behind bars because of greed. I strongly recommend those who make a significant income to declare and report your annual gambling profits.
This may not be the answer you were looking for, but I can go to sleep at night without fear of ramifications from the IRS.
As for audits, I have been through three. Imagine that!
However, I have been fortunate enough to survive all of them and with flying colors, I might add..
THE SHRINK
Personally, I have had to declare my gambling winnings each year for the past decade. I was informed from my both my attorney and accountant to be as diligent, thorough, complete and honest as possible.
It has also been alleged that the largely unsupervised electronic funds transfers inherent in online gambling are being exploited by criminal interests to launder large amounts of money.
Therefore, I do not want to spend time behind bars because of greed. I strongly recommend those who make a significant income to declare and report your annual gambling profits.
This may not be the answer you were looking for, but I can go to sleep at night without fear of ramifications from the IRS.
As for audits, I have been through three. Imagine that!
However, I have been fortunate enough to survive all of them and with flying colors, I might add..
THE SHRINK
ZZ CREAM
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
I can't believe you would post-up with any book except maybe small money just because their lines were really bad. That being said, why would you have up to 25% of your bankroll with any book? Mark me confused.:+clueless:+clueless:+clueless:+clueless
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Credit Cards lead to debt. Debt can lead to big trouble. I strongly suugest using the amount you have on hand regardless of how small it is for the recreational gambler...
Credit Cards lead to debt. Debt can lead to big trouble. I strongly suugest using the amount you have on hand regardless of how small it is for the recreational gambler...
The Noob
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Teddy I hope you you are joking here12io4j2w90.
Never bet with money from CC's2348ji23e
Teddy I hope you you are joking here12io4j2w90.
Never bet with money from CC's2348ji23e
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
ZZ CREAM,
The majority of posters aren't fortunate enough to qualify for online credit. Given the current climate within our industry, it may be more difficult to obtain an offshore credit account than a Platinum American Express Card.
I was replying to the recreational gambler who has no choice but to post up or play locally. If I were to post up, I would divide my bankroll between 4 sports books, rather than 1, to minimize risk.
For example, if my bankroll was 1k for this upcoming Football Season, I would feel quite comfortable sending 250 dollars a piece to Pinnacle, Bet Phoenix, Bet Jamaica, and Matchbook.
THE SHRINK
ZZ CREAM,
The majority of posters aren't fortunate enough to qualify for online credit. Given the current climate within our industry, it may be more difficult to obtain an offshore credit account than a Platinum American Express Card.
I was replying to the recreational gambler who has no choice but to post up or play locally. If I were to post up, I would divide my bankroll between 4 sports books, rather than 1, to minimize risk.
For example, if my bankroll was 1k for this upcoming Football Season, I would feel quite comfortable sending 250 dollars a piece to Pinnacle, Bet Phoenix, Bet Jamaica, and Matchbook.
THE SHRINK
ZZ CREAM
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
P.S. Shut up Tiny, I hear you smirking all the way up here.
Okay, mark me confused.....................and STUPID. Sorry Shrink. I understand now.
P.S. Shut up Tiny, I hear you smirking all the way up here.
Rinkrat
2
ShavenCoinpurse
EOG Dedicated
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Forget to give credit again here Shrink?
Which articles do you REALLY write?
:+clueless
Forget to give credit again here Shrink?
Which articles do you REALLY write?
:+clueless
Blondie
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Shrink does write many of the lead stories and the industry news on the front page. When I am placing them up on there, I had slacked off on not running them through a checker as a reminder to quote the source.
He has apologized for his actions and we are implementing steps to prevent this from happening to any of our writers in the future. :cheers
Shrink does write many of the lead stories and the industry news on the front page. When I am placing them up on there, I had slacked off on not running them through a checker as a reminder to quote the source.
He has apologized for his actions and we are implementing steps to prevent this from happening to any of our writers in the future. :cheers
Blondie
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Why?
I am not making any excuses for what has happened. However, I am stating anyone is free to check for plagiarism from ANY future articles.
I will even provide a link for you, so you don't have to find your own checker.
http://www.plagiarismchecker.com/
Why?
I am not making any excuses for what has happened. However, I am stating anyone is free to check for plagiarism from ANY future articles.
I will even provide a link for you, so you don't have to find your own checker.
http://www.plagiarismchecker.com/
ShavenCoinpurse
EOG Dedicated
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
He even changes the article to appear as if he writes them. I just read the real thread on 2+2. Sad.
He even changes the article to appear as if he writes them. I just read the real thread on 2+2. Sad.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Read Shrink's post in this thread. He made it obvious to all that he was taking credit.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Why wasn't something said here? Lots of replies after this post.
Why wasn't something said here? Lots of replies after this post.
roach23
Banned
Blondie
EOG Master
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
I am not excusing what happened and neither is he.
I am not excusing what happened and neither is he.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Dear Shrink...
Dismissing the ever-popular alchohol and drugs angle.
Have you made more money through the "business of gambling" than you ever made actually gambling on your own? Your website success is documented. The wealth there has given you tremendous credibility among the posters as well as the means to wheel and deal..
Other than in a few examples, is the money in sports gambling made more by the ancillary businesses (tout, bookie, web owner, seminar salesman, radio host, author, systems peddler, or whatever) without all the headaches of actual daily gambling?
What advice do you have for every 21-yr-old with $200 and a tattoo and a 20% bonus dream about his chances with Internet gambling?
Dear Shrink...
Dismissing the ever-popular alchohol and drugs angle.
Have you made more money through the "business of gambling" than you ever made actually gambling on your own? Your website success is documented. The wealth there has given you tremendous credibility among the posters as well as the means to wheel and deal..
Other than in a few examples, is the money in sports gambling made more by the ancillary businesses (tout, bookie, web owner, seminar salesman, radio host, author, systems peddler, or whatever) without all the headaches of actual daily gambling?
What advice do you have for every 21-yr-old with $200 and a tattoo and a 20% bonus dream about his chances with Internet gambling?
op:
J
joeybagadonuts
Guest
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Classic. :LMAO
I would tell them my poor uncle was being kidnapped and I needed to send the funds. That got me booted real quick.
WU = dog shit
Classic. :LMAO
I would tell them my poor uncle was being kidnapped and I needed to send the funds. That got me booted real quick.
WU = dog shit
J
joeybagadonuts
Guest
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Good questions, Jeffy.
No way in hell Mr Shrink answers them honestly.
Good questions, Jeffy.
No way in hell Mr Shrink answers them honestly.
ATX
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
treat betting on sports as most other types of investment oppurtunities.
do not bet more than 2% of bankroll on anything, starting out especially.
1. bad bad habit to get into. what you start out betting is what you are going to become accustomed to. you have no idea what your hold percentage is or if you have any type of advantage until about 2-3 years into it.
2. the longer you are part of the sports market the better you become, don't put yourself out of the game by taking chances.
3. bonuses are bad. reduced vig is far more valuable. a LOT of books that have offered bonuses have stiffed a large number of players because their overhead is too much, the book fails.
4. start out flat betting. maybe a few bets that are 1.5 or 2x. track everything. set goals. at first, dedicate the time to beating 52.38%. even at -107 dedicate the time to beating 52.38% (things change). force yourself to look at totals.
5. goals are everything. separate realistic expectations from fantasy and greed. Is consistent 20% ROI per year realistic? YES. Is one million dollars starting with 500 in less than a year? NO! 20% a year over x amount of years is good money. As your bankroll grows your bet size should as well. I recommend keeping the bet size the same for a good while to begin. Generally, I increase bet size as my bankroll grows. For every 10% my BR grows I reconfigure bet size (BR of 100% +10% = new BR of 110%-->>100%, avg bet goes up by about 10% after the plateau is reached). There are more complicated systems out there that incorporate Kelly and partial Kelly...ignore them. They are not designed for the sports market and without a sample size you do not know what your advantage is anyways.
6. Develop subsets. what is your ROI on football, college and pro? on totals on both? on 2nd halves on both on both? on first quarters on both on both? on specific teams? (most people suck on their favorite teams). same for basketball. baseball will teach you a lot about the numbers, teach you more about the market aspect of this than the other sports IMO. do baseball work. Develop angles. everyone knows that Unranked NCAA basketball teams that are Favored over Ranked teams do well, but there are more out there. Always ask why? There is underlying logic to some of the lines that is outside of statistical significance.
It's very difficult to do things successfully outside of the guidelines IMO.
treat betting on sports as most other types of investment oppurtunities.
do not bet more than 2% of bankroll on anything, starting out especially.
1. bad bad habit to get into. what you start out betting is what you are going to become accustomed to. you have no idea what your hold percentage is or if you have any type of advantage until about 2-3 years into it.
2. the longer you are part of the sports market the better you become, don't put yourself out of the game by taking chances.
3. bonuses are bad. reduced vig is far more valuable. a LOT of books that have offered bonuses have stiffed a large number of players because their overhead is too much, the book fails.
4. start out flat betting. maybe a few bets that are 1.5 or 2x. track everything. set goals. at first, dedicate the time to beating 52.38%. even at -107 dedicate the time to beating 52.38% (things change). force yourself to look at totals.
5. goals are everything. separate realistic expectations from fantasy and greed. Is consistent 20% ROI per year realistic? YES. Is one million dollars starting with 500 in less than a year? NO! 20% a year over x amount of years is good money. As your bankroll grows your bet size should as well. I recommend keeping the bet size the same for a good while to begin. Generally, I increase bet size as my bankroll grows. For every 10% my BR grows I reconfigure bet size (BR of 100% +10% = new BR of 110%-->>100%, avg bet goes up by about 10% after the plateau is reached). There are more complicated systems out there that incorporate Kelly and partial Kelly...ignore them. They are not designed for the sports market and without a sample size you do not know what your advantage is anyways.
6. Develop subsets. what is your ROI on football, college and pro? on totals on both? on 2nd halves on both on both? on first quarters on both on both? on specific teams? (most people suck on their favorite teams). same for basketball. baseball will teach you a lot about the numbers, teach you more about the market aspect of this than the other sports IMO. do baseball work. Develop angles. everyone knows that Unranked NCAA basketball teams that are Favored over Ranked teams do well, but there are more out there. Always ask why? There is underlying logic to some of the lines that is outside of statistical significance.
It's very difficult to do things successfully outside of the guidelines IMO.
ATX
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
it's not about how much you have as a starting bankroll, it's about where you end up and minimizing risk of ruin along the way. If you have $200 it may not be time to deposit if you have to bet $10 minimums. Risk of Ruin is too great and transfer fees eat up small amounts.
Also most investment strategies allow for adding amounts each paycheck or week or month or whatever and the sports market should be no different. Focus on investing $50/100/500 a month, whatever you can save (outside of any bills, entertainment, life savings etc) just like most other markets. It gets tricky increasing bet sizes when you are adding to BR. Your balance may be going up because you are adding by investing instead of beating -110. Always think long term and it's not a good idea to have more than 25% of your BR exposed IMO. At certain amounts your BR should be in an interest bearing commodity NOT in an offshore book.
it's not about how much you have as a starting bankroll, it's about where you end up and minimizing risk of ruin along the way. If you have $200 it may not be time to deposit if you have to bet $10 minimums. Risk of Ruin is too great and transfer fees eat up small amounts.
Also most investment strategies allow for adding amounts each paycheck or week or month or whatever and the sports market should be no different. Focus on investing $50/100/500 a month, whatever you can save (outside of any bills, entertainment, life savings etc) just like most other markets. It gets tricky increasing bet sizes when you are adding to BR. Your balance may be going up because you are adding by investing instead of beating -110. Always think long term and it's not a good idea to have more than 25% of your BR exposed IMO. At certain amounts your BR should be in an interest bearing commodity NOT in an offshore book.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Well, first of all, it was Ask ShrinK, not you.
It's always the same litany of Sharp orthodoxy that any poster can write who has been on the forums for six months.
So your advice is that the new $200 bettor is going to place 2% or $4 on his first bet? That is so remarkably unrealistically stupid. Four dollars? Good grief, we need entrance exams to post here.
And still, the larger question surrounding the "Is there more money to be made gambling or by facilitating others to gamble?", remains unanswered.
Well, first of all, it was Ask ShrinK, not you.
It's always the same litany of Sharp orthodoxy that any poster can write who has been on the forums for six months.
So your advice is that the new $200 bettor is going to place 2% or $4 on his first bet? That is so remarkably unrealistically stupid. Four dollars? Good grief, we need entrance exams to post here.
And still, the larger question surrounding the "Is there more money to be made gambling or by facilitating others to gamble?", remains unanswered.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
why ask a rhetorical question? you know the answer for most
why ask a rhetorical question? you know the answer for most
ATX
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
If you only have $200 extra dollars why are you betting anyways? This isn't the lotto.
you didn't read the 2nd part which deals with strategies at the lower levels.
people that cringe at the majority of this information are not going to win long term. this info isn't so much from "me" as it is generally universally accepted fact.
If you only have $200 extra dollars why are you betting anyways? This isn't the lotto.
you didn't read the 2nd part which deals with strategies at the lower levels.
people that cringe at the majority of this information are not going to win long term. this info isn't so much from "me" as it is generally universally accepted fact.
The Insider
Banned
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
Shrink- I had a couple questions for you.
I am working with a partner in various advantage play endeavors. I am also getting rebates for the plays I am making. We are making a killing, even without the rebates. My partner has no idea about the rebates and we are making good money without them. What he does not know, won't kill him right? There is nothing wrong in just keeping the rebates for myself, since he is profiting without it, correct?
My second question is this. I lost 300k gambling in the Pinnacle casino. I'm a wreck, I don't know what to do. I am going to get a rebate on some of my losses, but I'd like more. Do you know any of the higher ups at Pinny? Do you think I could get some of my money back. Maybe like 80k or something? My wife is going to kill me when she finds out, can you help me out?
Shrink- I had a couple questions for you.
I am working with a partner in various advantage play endeavors. I am also getting rebates for the plays I am making. We are making a killing, even without the rebates. My partner has no idea about the rebates and we are making good money without them. What he does not know, won't kill him right? There is nothing wrong in just keeping the rebates for myself, since he is profiting without it, correct?
My second question is this. I lost 300k gambling in the Pinnacle casino. I'm a wreck, I don't know what to do. I am going to get a rebate on some of my losses, but I'd like more. Do you know any of the higher ups at Pinny? Do you think I could get some of my money back. Maybe like 80k or something? My wife is going to kill me when she finds out, can you help me out?
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
I subscribe to the same strategy as you ATX
however I know personally a few gamblers who play a lot less games and pound the hell out of them, and its successful for them, even long term.
I subscribe to the same strategy as you ATX
however I know personally a few gamblers who play a lot less games and pound the hell out of them, and its successful for them, even long term.
ATX
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
It is a BAD idea to get into that habit starting out.
For most people it turns into chasing.
I like to bet according to perceived value so I don't flat bet. I have a lot of different angles and systems so I often have a lot of bets, sometimes I just want to get a single, or a 3outta5, but usually I'm betting anything I see with an edge.
nothing wrong with that pound it strategy if they are +EV. I do it too. I bet over 6% total BR on LA +3/3' in game 5. I bet over 5% on USC over Ohio State and Oregon State over Hawaii. I often go shotgun, betting between 30 and 50 events a day. Sometimes I launch rockets, but I usually only bet over 1.5% when I have a close to a perceived 60% chance of winning.
a lot of this is psychological.
even IF you are a 55% bettor, there is a lot of variance involved. If you flip a quarter weighted to 45/55 you are going to come up tails over 10 times in a row fairly often over a large sample size. At just 5% an event you would lose over half of your bankroll very,very quickly and at large amounts of money, not only is it hard to replace, it is psychologically hard to over come which detracts from performance. a vicious circle develops.
It is a BAD idea to get into that habit starting out.
For most people it turns into chasing.
I like to bet according to perceived value so I don't flat bet. I have a lot of different angles and systems so I often have a lot of bets, sometimes I just want to get a single, or a 3outta5, but usually I'm betting anything I see with an edge.
nothing wrong with that pound it strategy if they are +EV. I do it too. I bet over 6% total BR on LA +3/3' in game 5. I bet over 5% on USC over Ohio State and Oregon State over Hawaii. I often go shotgun, betting between 30 and 50 events a day. Sometimes I launch rockets, but I usually only bet over 1.5% when I have a close to a perceived 60% chance of winning.
a lot of this is psychological.
even IF you are a 55% bettor, there is a lot of variance involved. If you flip a quarter weighted to 45/55 you are going to come up tails over 10 times in a row fairly often over a large sample size. At just 5% an event you would lose over half of your bankroll very,very quickly and at large amounts of money, not only is it hard to replace, it is psychologically hard to over come which detracts from performance. a vicious circle develops.
ATX
2
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
to be clear, I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that they know what they are doing. They are not beginners. They are hitting soft numbers and/or advantage situations and they recognize the opportunities as such.
to be clear, I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that they know what they are doing. They are not beginners. They are hitting soft numbers and/or advantage situations and they recognize the opportunities as such.
Re: Online Gambling: Ask The Shrink
How many same ol' sports gambling platitudes can I ski behind?
How many same ol' sports gambling platitudes can I ski behind?