Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Sam Odom

EOG Master
Where is JC when you need him? :+excited- I remember him doing the math on NAB, said it cannot work.
 

JC

EOG Veteran
The theoretical hold booking -105 is 2.38%. If you offer a 20% bonus with a 5 times rollover you will lose $57.14 before expenses for every $1,000 in deposit that you bonus. The more deposits you take, the closer you approach the theoretical loss.

Expenses include the cost of moving money, labor, rent, technology, and equipment, and let's not forget the electric and phone bills. I'm probably forgetting some stuff.

Is it worth it for a place to give away that much in hopes of retaining a long term customer who is going to stay and play when he no longer receives the bonus? Maybe, if he stays. But will the type of customer originally lured in by the 20% on top of -105 stick around when the program ends? THAT is the question.
 

Nimue77

EOG Senior Member
I would sure as hell stick around for just the -105 without any bonus.

JC said:
The theoretical hold booking -105 is 2.38%. If you offer a 20% bonus with a 5 times rollover you will lose $57.14 before expenses for every $1,000 in deposit that you bonus. The more deposits you take, the closer you approach the theoretical loss.

Expenses include the cost of moving money, labor, rent, technology, and equipment, and let's not forget the electric and phone bills. I'm probably forgetting some stuff.

Is it worth it for a place to give away that much in hopes of retaining a long term customer who is going to stay and play when he no longer receives the bonus? Maybe, if he stays. But will the type of customer originally lured in by the 20% on top of -105 stick around when the program ends? THAT is the question.
 

peteep

EOG Addicted
I think Trojan can retain customers with offering the reduiced juice. Looks like they have a good offering.
 

Sam Odom

EOG Master
ZZ CREAM said:
Books that deal 10 cent football lines HAVE to gamble and WIN to stay in business!

I agree that is why I wrote "too much". At 10c tho a good starting bankroll will ensure a profit over say 5 yrs.
 

ZZ CREAM

EOG Master
Sam Odom said:
I agree that is why I wrote "too much". At 10c tho a good starting bankroll will ensure a profit over say 5 yrs.
You are pretty sharp Sam -why not come home to your liberal roots?
 

Sam Odom

EOG Master
ZZ CREAM said:
come home to your liberal roots?

I'm a neo-con remember? I am liberal in my personal life but I want everyone else to live conservatively (by my rules) :+signs8-1
 

KingofTheHill

EOG Enthusiast
How much do parlays, teasers, and thinks like this come into play profit-wise? Seems like it would help the book to profit, but to what degree?
 

Sam Odom

EOG Master
KingofTheHill said:
How much do parlays, teasers, and thinks like this come into play profit-wise? Seems like it would help the book to profit, but to what degree?

huge

Just need that bankroll to cover a big par from time to time.

Vegas books love the 'parlay card'
 

ZZ CREAM

EOG Master
Sam Odom said:
I'm a neo-con remember? I am liberal in my personal life but I want everyone else to live conservatively (by my rules) :+signs8-1
Oh yeah, I forgot, like Zell! Sorry!
 

Sober Leprechaun

EOG Enthusiast
depends on the percentage of customers they retain. bonus is mathematically a loss leader, sorta paying x amount to build up a client base. if enough funds, they can fade the theoretical loss and make it back in the long run provided they retain enough customers.
 

sean1

EOG Dedicated
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

While I agree with JC, math does not tell the whole story here.

If every bettor deposited $1000 and then played $10 plays, they would walk away up the amount JC said.

But most bettors overbet.

Even though the house only had a small edge in blackjack, I've read well over 80% of people who visit a casino walk out losers. This is because people enter with $300 and the house has 30 million... No matter how lucky you are, you are bound to hit 0...

Sean
 

betfirstclass

EOG Dedicated
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

100 FACTORS are Involved


#1 BEING VOLUME


JC is 1000% correct on the Expected Hold % . . . However those will go up slightly if you have many parlay type players and various other factors are Included as in any business you TRY your best to Keep PROFITS up & OVERHEAD down

in "our Model" we make as much IF NOT MORE off Price Per Head Packages
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Gamblers are more educated since 2005...

I personally don't think that a book can survive letting customers lay -105 everyday...some real sharps can ruin you depending what you put up and for what limits...

You might make a little, but over time I say the book would fold like a cheap suit...the book better be ready to gamble and win huge decisions...I wouldn't deposit in a book offering -105 everyday on straight bets...

But there is nothing wrong offerering -105 with promotions on ceretain games or events....just not -105 on EVERYTHING....
 
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Ummmm.....

Aren't we forgetting to give some credit to PINNACLE?

Pinny is the exception to the rule for a variety of reasons....:cheers
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Pinnacle could care less what the players do....

Players will get paid if they win...they are a good shop...
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

If they were exceptional, they wouldn't have closed their doors to the USA...although there are ways around it....
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Your average square (like me) cant hit 50 percent, it aint the vig that kills us. Its the fact we cant pick winners
People dont go bust because of the vig
 
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

Whatever happened to NAB Bill?

Without a doubt he proved why books should NOT be allowed to post.

Also, years ago, wasn't it Wilheim who was absolutely certain that Pinnacle could not succeed with their business model?

Back to topic - I do not think parlays/teasers/buying points are accurately factored into the equation. Simple fact is that most gamblers do not know how to use these betting options correctly (ESPECIALLY point buying).

Also, keep in mind that a book sets its own limits.

I do not believe gamblers are "better" today than 2005. The main problem being information. Years ago one could make a killing with superior information. However, the advent of the internet and increased competitiveness among media services has cancelled that out.

Now the problem is overinformation and the media's efforts to trump each other in reporting it. Tom Brady leaves practice early and it makes the evening news. The Patrioits are innundated with media calls and the 4th string ball boy, feeling so important, is quoted as a reliable source about the severity of Brady's injured ankle. The "informed" gamblers jump on that and pile on the other side.

All this while the reality is that he had to take a shit.

Worse is when one media outlet (and a particular repoter comes to mind) makes up information when he has nothing to report that day. Other outlets, fearing to be out-scooped, repeat the message, adding some key "exclusive" tidbits that are invaribly made up also.

All this serves to create more confusion on the part of the gambler while giving them the false perspective that they have superior information.
 

betfirstclass

EOG Dedicated
Re: Can a full time -105 book make it without...

to eliminate any confusion . . . .

I LOVE GORGEOUS WOMEN & ENJOY DRINKING GREY GOOSE VODKA @ THE CLUBS
 
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