Week 4 Plays

Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Va Tech +2 vs Miami. Va Tech at home plus points? We will take them gladly, especially against a team that lost 7 out of their last 8 ATS against Va Tech.

Auburn -27 vs Ball State. This is just too easy. We think the line should be closer to -37.

We also played a middle, weak as it is. Stanford -6.5 to Washington +9.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

Adding Notre Dame -7 at Purdue. Hoping that this line takes off, but still, we are talking Purdue here. The defense that has given up 97 points in 3 games and lost to Northern Illinois at home last week.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Week 4 Plays

I'm sure you know, but Floyd--the best and most talented player on the entire team, except for maybe Clausen--is out for the year. Also Clausen is a little banged up as is RB Armando Allen who is finally coming into his own and has played really well the last two games. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys see some rest this week, especially if ND gets up early.

But as you said, it's Purdue.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

IrishTim said:
I'm sure you know, but Floyd--the best and most talented player on the entire team, except for maybe Clausen--is out for the year. Also Clausen is a little banged up as is RB Armando Allen who is finally coming into his own and has played really well the last two games. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys see some rest this week, especially if ND gets up early.

But as you said, it's Purdue.
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We want to see how high the line climbs. If it gets to 10.5, we can always middle it out.
 
HinesWard86

HinesWard86

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

BigdaddyQH said:
Va Tech +2 vs Miami. Va Tech at home plus points? We will take them gladly, especially against a team that lost 7 out of their last 8 ATS against Va Tech.

Auburn -27 vs Ball State. This is just too easy. We think the line should be closer to -37.

We also played a middle, weak as it is. Stanford -6.5 to Washington +9.
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Did you find the Auburn line in Vegas?
 
HinesWard86

HinesWard86

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

BigdaddyQH said:
Yes. It was the opening line. As long as this game under 35, people should jump all over this line. You may be able to get 30 to 31 when it opens up later today.
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Nice line. Opened at 30 offshore yesterday and went up to 31 shortly after.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

We are looking at several more games. As Romo pointed out, Kansas -13 1/2 is a good wager and is stillavailable in Vegas. We are waiting and hoping that the Air Force line drops further, but if it does not, -15.5 is going to be a consideration. Boise State also looks pretty good.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

No. The "we" I refer to is a group of people who formed a gaming "carel" if you will, years ago, on advice of a well known tout. We wager rather large sums as a group. All of us basically use the same computer generated information to make our decisions well before the games are actually played. We then get together on Sunday Afternoons via conference call or in Vegas and make our definate selections, along with some possible selections. Because of the amount we wager, we have access to the "lead lines", those being the lines that first come out and are offered to people or groups who wager large sums of money. We have a person (our rep, if you will) who places the wagers for us at various hotels in Vegas. We have open accounts at many hotels, but stick to 2 or 3 for the most part.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Week 4 Plays

Over/under on how many more times BD needs to explain the "we" before bowl season set at 12.5
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Week 4 Plays

BigdaddyQH said:
We want to see how high the line climbs. If it gets to 10.5, we can always middle it out.
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ND's still going to be able to score and some much needed changes are currently being made to the defense. But I'd be slightly worried about the backdoor cover, especially if Clausen and Armando sit out some of the second half to nurse their injuries. This prospect is even scarier considering Weis's history of blowing leads. Best of luck though. I'll certainly be cheering for you.

I'm most pissed about the fact that we're going to be playing Southern Cal once again without our best player. Would love to see Floyd and Mays go up for a jump ball together.
 
global24

global24

EOG Veteran
Re: Week 4 Plays

BD, any opinions on the USC line? I think they'll win by 52+ but my view of the team is skewed so I don't want to wager on them.

Wishing I would of gotten 27, I didn't wager on it but I wanted to get 28 or less, now it sits at 31.5 and a no play for me. BOL on the wager.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Week 4 Plays

How could they put up 52 on anyone with Corp at QB? I know their RBs are collectively the best in the nation but you need to throw the ball to cover a 32 point spread.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

I think that Carroll gets his walking wounded out of the Wazzu game as soon as he can. The entire season is staring him in the fact when they travel to Cal next week. A 5:00 game on ABC. If Cal beats Oregon, you can bet that gameday will be there. Everything Carroll loves in a football game. He will make sure that his team has it's talented players ready to go for this game. That means getting them as much rest against Wazzu as possible. Carroll feels responsible for the Washiington loss. A huge win against Wazzu means nothing. A win against Cal means everything. I think USC goes as conservative as they can. They treat the Wazzu game like a scrimmage. They may not score 44 points.
 
LaxDevil

LaxDevil

EOG Addicted
Re: Week 4 Plays

BigdaddyQH said:
No. The "we" I refer to is a group of people who formed a gaming "carel" if you will, years ago, on advice of a well known tout. We wager rather large sums as a group. All of us basically use the same computer generated information to make our decisions well before the games are actually played. We then get together on Sunday Afternoons via conference call or in Vegas and make our definate selections, along with some possible selections. Because of the amount we wager, we have access to the "lead lines", those being the lines that first come out and are offered to people or groups who wager large sums of money. We have a person (our rep, if you will) who places the wagers for us at various hotels in Vegas. We have open accounts at many hotels, but stick to 2 or 3 for the most part.
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Quick question for ya, how much stock do you put into historical ATS numbers (coming off a L, W, revenge, etc.) vs. real time info like how the team looked last week, injuries, weather, etc.?

I really have a tough time looking at a teams last 10 games ATS coming off a home loss or whatever it may be since some of that data may be from a team with completely different players/personnel.

Just curious.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Week 4 Plays

LaxDevil said:
Quick question for ya, how much stock do you put into historical ATS numbers (coming off a L, W, revenge, etc.) vs. real time info like how the team looked last week, injuries, weather, etc.?

I really have a tough time looking at a teams last 10 games ATS coming off a home loss or whatever it may be since some of that data may be from a team with completely different players/personnel.

Just curious.
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I'm with you lax. I think any stats from over 4 years ago (when it was all different players) are useless, especially if it was a different head coach/OC/DC.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

Adding Central Michigan -16 vs Arkon (Golden Nugget). A good spot for Central Michigan. They are 9-1 in conference openers, and 8-2 at home off a non-con game. They have alsocovered 3 straight against Akron. The Cippewas want to get off to a fast start in conference play. Akron has given up 69 points in their two FBS games. (0-2, 1-1 ATS).

We are watching some lines closely. Cal down to -5.5 at Oregon.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

Adding Air Force -16.5 vs San Diego State. San Diego State gave up 33 at UCLA and 34 at Idaho, not exactly your high scoring machines. Air Force can out lots of points up on the board. The Air Force is also 3-1 SU/ATS against San Diego State in their last 4 meetings, covering both at home.
 
G8RMANJAX

G8RMANJAX

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

Good luck this week BD... LOOKS GOOD :thumbsup

Got me some of that FSU & Auburn as well, lovin those two alot.

Looking at the AF game as well, waiting on update on QB Jefferson's sprained ankle before I pull the trigger. AF has won last 2 games 90-33 by avg 23.5 pts.

I will definitely have to look into that CMU / Akron game now.

Thanks for all your post and info.
 
Illini_in_AZ

Illini_in_AZ

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Week 4 Plays

global24 said:
BD, any opinions on the USC line? I think they'll win by 52+ but my view of the team is skewed so I don't want to wager on them.

Wishing I would of gotten 27, I didn't wager on it but I wanted to get 28 or less, now it sits at 31.5 and a no play for me. BOL on the wager.
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No reason for Pete to run this one up... I'd just stay away from it, but with a gun to my head, I'd take the points with WSU. Also, Corp just looked really bad last week at Washington.

There are better plays on the board this week. I'd try to get a piece of Florida State before the line gets too big. Matt Grothe is out for USF, which changes the dynamic in that one significantly.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

LaxDevil said:
Quick question for ya, how much stock do you put into historical ATS numbers (coming off a L, W, revenge, etc.) vs. real time info like how the team looked last week, injuries, weather, etc.?

I really have a tough time looking at a teams last 10 games ATS coming off a home loss or whatever it may be since some of that data may be from a team with completely different players/personnel.

Just curious.
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We use what is known as "technical information" to reinforce our plays. The technical side of things can either confirm our play or put us off of a game. For example, one of the games we looked at was taking Oregon and the lead line (+7) at home against Cal. Oregon did beat a good Utah team, and 7 points at home looked very tempting. But when we looked at some of the technical info (Cal 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Oregon, 8-0 ATS in a conference game coming off a non-con game, and the fact that Oregon has not been a home dog in over 3 years) we found too many intangables in the equation, so we passed on the game.

Sometimes the technical information is not enough to effect our decisions. We took Auburn at -27 because we projected the corect line to be -34.5. The fact that Auburn is 0-7 against a non-con opponent off a double diget win was not strong enough to offset that bad line. As it turned out, this is also a bad spot for Ball State, being 1-9 in this situation.

So we use "technical" information to either confirm our picks, or to get us off a pick. Last week, we jumped on the Air Force over New Mexico, partly because the Air Force was 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against New Mexico. They are now 6-0. This week we took the Air Force at home over San Diego State, partially because they are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games against San Diego State. There were a lot of other reasons, but the technical side just reinforced our decision.

The technical side to wagering is part of a larger overall strategy involving any type of gaming. Simply put, it states this: Either bet with a streak, or do not wager at all, but never bet against a streak. The reason is rather simple and logical. If you wager against a streak, you can lose many games before the streak is broken, but if you wager with the streak, you can only lose once.
 
LaxDevil

LaxDevil

EOG Addicted
Re: Week 4 Plays

Ok thanks. Do you disregard the technical data at times for a team like Michigan which has undergone drastic changes in coaching and players? Or do you find that these streaks keep fairly steady over the years?
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: Week 4 Plays

LaxDevil said:
Ok thanks. Do you disregard the technical data at times for a team like Michigan which has undergone drastic changes in coaching and players? Or do you find that these streaks keep fairly steady over the years?
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When working with technical information, there are a few things to remember. Coaching changes could lead to opposite results, but do not always lead to those results. A perfect example is Notre Dame-Michigan. The dog does very well historically in this series. Last year, the Irish covered and won S/U as the dog. This year Michigan covered and won S/U as the dog. That has happened 12 times in the past 14 meetings, and that covers a lot of coaching changes. Two at Michigan and 4 or 5 at Notre Dame. Michigan is a team that does not have a ton of technical information in it's history, and the information it does have has stood up so far even with the coaching change. Still, when a coaching change occurs, we use extra caution. Remember, the technical information is only used to confirm or question a pick, not to make a pick.

The important thing to consider is the reason why for the change. In the case of San Diego State, their team did terible last year, and their coach was fired. In the case of Oregon, their coach stepped up to the A.D. spot, so a new coach was needed. If a team fires a coach, do not expect miracles in the first year out of the new HC. If a team simply replaces a coach because the former coach has moved on, that is a different story. The new HC can continue the success, or stumble. Oregon is the perfect study so far. Former OC and new HC Chip Kelly has not had the greatest start. This week's game against Cal is critical for the Ducks. Let's see how they do at home. The results of this game may have an efect on how we view the technical information for the rest of the year.
 
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