ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

B

Buskie

EOG Veteran
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

I understand the math and with seven games anything can happen it a short sample but Lance doesn't have a clue about line value. Example a couple weeks ago lay's Arizona -3.5 when the market is widely 3, a couple weeks before that bets Ohio State -44.5 game opened 40 he bets Miami Florida -7.5 when 7 were widely available. I truley believe Fezz could give away a game here and Lance couldn't take advantage of it, he just doesn't have a clue
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

JCROM777 said:
I usually like dogs but not in this contest. Fezzik will win the money talks contest.
The big difference is the info that Fezzik gets with his Tuesday meetings.
Would have been a better final if the Shrink or Meyer was up against the Fezz.
Lay the wood and end up in the winner's circle with Fezzik.
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Buskie said:
I understand the math and with seven games anything can happen it a short sample but Lance doesn't have a clue about line value. Example a couple weeks ago lay's Arizona -3.5 when the market is widely 3, a couple weeks before that bets Ohio State -44.5 game opened 40 he bets Miami Florida -7.5 when 7 were widely available. I truley believe Fezz could give away a game here and Lance couldn't take advantage of it, he just doesn't have a clue
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There is just almost no scenario that I can think of that would make Fezz a 56.5% favorite to win in a 7 game sample. It is just virtually impossible.

I hope either Ken or Fezz takes my offer on the 5k. I am a fan of both of them usually. I just see it differently this time.

5000/6500......lets get it on.
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

when do they get to see the lines used in the contest.
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Lance is the fuckking man. New Sharpie and king of the Hill.
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

THE SHRINK said:
I'll give u +1.20...oij213490
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500 if you trust me Shrinker. So is that -130 if you lose:LMAO

My 500 your 600 payable by check moneyorder or transfer if we have workable accounts.
 
BADCO

BADCO

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Lance Blakenship,didn't he play second base for the A's?
 
T

tripp

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

would have to take the dog here.

Fezz probably the poster here i enjoy reading the most when it comes to gambling advice, but in a 7 game card anything can happen and anyone can win. Fezz obviously should be favored, but +130 seems a bit much to give this guy.
 
Mr. NBA

Mr. NBA

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

sucks i missed this...+130?...7 game sample?...hell at +150 I would bet my 2 year olds picks against Fezz over a 7 game stretch......book it.
 
34%Capper

34%Capper

2
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

"Seven picks by a 55% guy vs. 7 picks by a coinflip guy represents a very clear edge. Imagine getting to run A-10 vs. Kq ALLIN 7 times......suddenly it is NOT a coinflip."

A-10 vs KQ doesn't have the luxury of naming it's own statistical probability. It doesn't have an infinite number of subsets used to define it......you used three, that had combined @170 games and compared it to a constant statistical success rate.

Analyzing 55% vs 50% in 7 games isn't the biggest flaw in determining the value of the wager. It's the acceptance of 55% and 50% as THE RIGHT numbers.

And this isn't a knock on Fezzik......perhaps the lifetime numbers are really 60% vs 40%.

With that said, if 55% vs 50% are the right numbers, give me all the +120 I can swallow.
 
M

maverick

EOG Veteran
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Buskie said:
I understand the math and with seven games anything can happen it a short sample but Lance doesn't have a clue about line value. Example a couple weeks ago lay's Arizona -3.5 when the market is widely 3, a couple weeks before that bets Ohio State -44.5 game opened 40 he bets Miami Florida -7.5 when 7 were widely available. I truley believe Fezz could give away a game here and Lance couldn't take advantage of it, he just doesn't have a clue
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Pretty silly considering the guy is in the finals......he must be doing something right.
 
M

maverick

EOG Veteran
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Buskie said:
Go to americanwagering listen to the past shows with him on there and get back to me
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I have listened to past shows including the one last week and he seemed to know what he was doing...........he beat that Adam Meyer who actually made me laugh at what a pompous ass he sounded like........$250,000 clients,,,,,,,,,inside contacts that give him info.........haha

Told us how great he was...........2938u4ji23:cheers

Then the guy went and lost.........now that was funny:houra
 
B

Buskie

EOG Veteran
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

maverick said:
I have listened to past shows including the one last week and he seemed to know what he was doing...........he beat that Adam Meyer who actually made me laugh at what a pompous ass he sounded like........$250,000 clients,,,,,,,,,inside contacts that give him info.........haha

Told us how great he was...........2938u4ji23:cheers

Then the guy went and lost.........now that was funny:houra
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Mav, Lance seems like a nice guy but in my opinion he is not smart, not even close to being sharp. I doens't matter to me if he is in the finals I listen to what he is saying, like what I said in the above post
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

already a lock that 3 of Fez picks are SFO,Oak, and Wash. so predictable.
 
F

felonee

EOG Veteran
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

This board continuing to knock Fez thoughout the contest..... let me be the immature one to point out.......... "scoreboard"
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

railbird said:
already a lock that 3 of Fez picks are SFO,Oak, and Wash. so predictable.
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well he must be doing pretty good than as he won the hilton and is top 5 again this year:blink:

maybe you should enter and make all those predictable picks yourself:cheers
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Can we get this up at Betjam. I don't do Mickey or Match mouse.
 
WVU

WVU

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

felonee said:
This board continuing to knock Fez thoughout the contest..... let me be the immature one to point out.......... "scoreboard"
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I don't see this thread that way at all. What I do see is Fezz stating he is a value pick at -130 or better and that his opponent is no better than a coin flipper.

Lance is the guy getting beat up in this thread
 
Meyer

Meyer

EOG Addicted
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

I would lay -600 on fezzik over him for a season just based on the explanations lance gave why he liked his picks. It shows me he does no preparation. However, as i have said every appearance on Leroy's that a 5 year old picking games against the spread should be even money against anyone just because its 7 lousy picks. I lost fair and square and went 3-4 . I am sure fezzik has had weeks that he went 0-7. It happens. And it could happen to him this week. I hope fezzik wins . I don't think Lance is ethical for what he did but the result wouldn't have mattered.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

felonee said:
This board continuing to knock Fez thoughout the contest..... let me be the immature one to point out.......... "scoreboard"
Click to expand...


Well, thats not actually true. The opposite is actually true, in fact.
 
C

Chessman

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Meyer said:
I lost fair and square and went 3-4.
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Just think, Adam. Over 100 picks, you would now have to go 67-26 (72.04%) over your next 93 to hit your customary 70%. Let's see what another 3-4 day would force you to do: hmm, that would demand that you go 64-22 (74.42%) over the remaining 86 selections. And since you say 0-7 is possible for anyone, let's see what that would do: why that would force you to go 67-19 (77.91%) over the remaining 86. So for a guy like you, Adam, 3-4 is simply unacceptable. Wait! I've lost my head! This is "Adam Meyer" after all. Scratch everything I said. I can easily see you going 85-1. The one loss is for a fluke game where your team turns it over 11 times. :LMAO
 
Incredible Hulk

Incredible Hulk

EOG Enthusiast
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Chessman said:
Just think, Adam. Over 100 picks, you would now have to go 67-26 (72.04%) over your next 93 to hit your customary 70%. Let's see what another 3-4 day would force you to do: hmm, that would demand that you go 64-22 (74.42%) over the remaining 86 selections. And since you say 0-7 is possible for anyone, let's see what that would do: why that would force you to go 67-19 (77.91%) over the remaining 86. So for a guy like you, Adam, 3-4 is simply unacceptable. Wait! I've lost my head! This is "Adam Meyer" after all. Scratch everything I said. I can easily see you going 85-1. The one loss is for a fluke game where your team turns it over 11 times. :LMAO
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:+textinb3 Good stuff chessman.
 
THE SHRINK

THE SHRINK

1
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

WVU said:
I don't see this thread that way at all. What I do see is Fezz stating he is a value pick at -130 or better and that his opponent is no better than a coin flipper.

Lance is the guy getting beat up in this thread
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Part of the reason is this...

On one of his earlier picks, he found the only 3 1/2 on an NFL game, when the line was 3 everywhere in Nevada, laid the extra half point and he lost when the game fell 3..

No one that I respect would ever take a bad number...

THE SHRINK
 
Meyer

Meyer

EOG Addicted
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Well considering on vegas insider i won the jets and on knbr i picked the 49 ers huge on monday and i had Phoenix last night i am on my way. I will bet anyone on here including fezzik 80k (which we will post) that my seven games this week beat fezzik and lance. If one of those two win i lose. In essence its 2 against one. I won more money on 49ers monday than i would have won in the contest. You can actually say i was rooting for Lance to beat me i guess
 
WVU

WVU

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

THE SHRINK said:
Part of the reason is this...

On one of his earlier picks, he found the only 3 1/2 on an NFL game, when the line was 3 everywhere in Nevada, laid the extra half point and he lost when the game fell 3..

No one that I respect would ever take a bad number...

THE SHRINK
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Yes, I understand that and he also used questionable tactics to take out Mr. Meyer. Even still over 7 games even a square has nearly the same chance as a pro sharp.
 
Meyer

Meyer

EOG Addicted
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

I made the biggest known bet at the M on 49ers monday since they have been open. Again i lost fair and square. Dont know how many times i have to say it. My 70 percent chessmen is verifiable for 3 years. Go knbr listen to each podcast every week and add up the record its 74 percent picking 3 games mostly every week on Friday. Very lucky run no doubt but its true.
 
P

ProfaneReality

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

I don't have 80k or anything close.. but I would love to bet on Fezzik/Lance VS you.. whats the minimum bet you would take? a dime ?
 
WVU

WVU

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Meyer = brass balls. Check your pm's Adam
 
P

ProfaneReality

EOG Dedicated
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

I can go as high as $2500, posted up somewhere. this is like christmas come early if he accepts
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

adam are you still doing the radio today?

thank you:cheers
 
Incredible Hulk

Incredible Hulk

EOG Enthusiast
Re: ODDS ON FEZZIK VS. BLANKENSHIP UP AT MATCHBOOK...

Meyer said:
I made the biggest known bet at the M on 49ers monday since they have been open. Again i lost fair and square. Dont know how many times i have to say it. My 70 percent chessmen is verifiable for 3 years. Go knbr listen to each podcast every week and add up the record its 74 percent picking 3 games mostly every week on Friday. Very lucky run no doubt but its true.
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So that would be your 'radio win percent'? Its nice when you have radio picks, site picks, winter picks, summer picks...then whichever one you get lucky on you can tell everyone about.
 
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