IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
We've had some great threads going already re: Super Bowl Props. We have our own resident sharp Jeff Haney with an excellent thread on some props (http://forums.eog.com/online-sports...er-propositions-take-center-stage-271310.html). I thought it might be a good idea to get a thread going where we can continue to talk about prop handicapping in general and maybe more specific propositions that come up as the Super Bowl nears.
I didn't invent this type of prop handicapping and am in now way trying to take credit for it. Virtually everything I'll post in this thread I either learned from any number of books on sports betting or some of the forums' sharper members. But hopefully my posts here will help a few of you make money and somewhere along the way, the favor will be returned.
According to Wong, handicapping props has three steps: (1) predict what you expect to happen if this event occurred 1000s of times (2) assign probabilities to both sides of the prop (3) quantify your edge so you know if it is a situation with a positive expected value (+EV).
For the first step--predicting what you think will happen--what you are looking for is to come up with an arithmetic mean with what you think will happen. Ideally, you're looking for situations where you come up with a number different than what the books post. I can't really tell you how to come up with this number, but it isn't as hard as you think. Take the season averages (maybe exclude weeks 16 and 17 because the Saints and Colts both took their feet off the gas) and perhaps adjust for the respective offenses/defenses they're going against. You don't need to spend more than 5 minutes on this part of pricing props. There are 100s of props out there, so you don't need to force it trying to create value against the book's numbers where there isn't any.
The second step--assigning probabilities--is the key to prop betting. For instance, right now I see Bodog has over 3.5 total sacks (+240)/under 3.5 total sacks (-300). With some shopping around you can easily find better lines and middle attempts. At any rate, say you expect there to be exactly 3 sacks in the game. That means you would make the under 3 sacks at -110 and the over -110. How do you convert this to the 3.5 sacks? By adjusting the juice of course.
The final step is deciding which ones to bet. Here you take the probability of winning and multiply it by the payout you would collect if the prop wins to attain the bet's expected value. If it's positive, well then you have an edge over the sportsbook. You should be able to find Super Bowl props with over 10% expected value , meaning that for every $100 you bet, you expect a $10 return. Of course, anything can happen on game day but you can't look at it as just a sample size of 1. You are concerned with the arithmetic mean, the average. If you're on the right side of the average more often than not, then you will make money long-term.
I didn't invent this type of prop handicapping and am in now way trying to take credit for it. Virtually everything I'll post in this thread I either learned from any number of books on sports betting or some of the forums' sharper members. But hopefully my posts here will help a few of you make money and somewhere along the way, the favor will be returned.
According to Wong, handicapping props has three steps: (1) predict what you expect to happen if this event occurred 1000s of times (2) assign probabilities to both sides of the prop (3) quantify your edge so you know if it is a situation with a positive expected value (+EV).
For the first step--predicting what you think will happen--what you are looking for is to come up with an arithmetic mean with what you think will happen. Ideally, you're looking for situations where you come up with a number different than what the books post. I can't really tell you how to come up with this number, but it isn't as hard as you think. Take the season averages (maybe exclude weeks 16 and 17 because the Saints and Colts both took their feet off the gas) and perhaps adjust for the respective offenses/defenses they're going against. You don't need to spend more than 5 minutes on this part of pricing props. There are 100s of props out there, so you don't need to force it trying to create value against the book's numbers where there isn't any.
The second step--assigning probabilities--is the key to prop betting. For instance, right now I see Bodog has over 3.5 total sacks (+240)/under 3.5 total sacks (-300). With some shopping around you can easily find better lines and middle attempts. At any rate, say you expect there to be exactly 3 sacks in the game. That means you would make the under 3 sacks at -110 and the over -110. How do you convert this to the 3.5 sacks? By adjusting the juice of course.
The final step is deciding which ones to bet. Here you take the probability of winning and multiply it by the payout you would collect if the prop wins to attain the bet's expected value. If it's positive, well then you have an edge over the sportsbook. You should be able to find Super Bowl props with over 10% expected value , meaning that for every $100 you bet, you expect a $10 return. Of course, anything can happen on game day but you can't look at it as just a sample size of 1. You are concerned with the arithmetic mean, the average. If you're on the right side of the average more often than not, then you will make money long-term.
