Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures

written March 4, 2010 by Jeff Janey



Upon the resumption of the National Hockey League's regular season after the Vancouver Games, I invested in a ticket on the Ottawa Senators to win the Stanley Cup championship.

I like that the Senators had been in top form heading into the break for the Olympics, with 14 victories in their previous 16 games.

I like that they're sitting atop the Northeast Division with 76 points, fourth in the Eastern Conference but in a tight race for second behind the Washington Capitals. The Senators have a reasonable chance of entering the playoffs as one of the top two or three seeds in the conference.

I like how general manager Bryan Murray showed he was serious about pushing for a Stanley Cup run, acquiring defenseman Andy Sutton this week and forward Matt Cullen before the hiatus to beef up the Ottawa roster.

The deals appeared to have inspired confidence among Ottawa's players.

"I like the move," Senators captain Daniel Alfredsson was quoted by The Canadian Press. "I don't know much about (Sutton) except playing against him and he's a hard-nosed player who plays hard, blocks shots, hits and is hard to play against. It's obviously a good addition for us.

"Bryan's given us two players that have been around for a while in Cullen and Sutton to help us and give us more depth, so I definitely like our team."
Most of all, though, I like the odds attached to the Senators' chances of winning the Cup: a healthy 50-1 at the sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton.

While the team's outlook is bright in any case, it was the attractive odds that allowed me to pull the trigger on the future-book ticket.

I felt the price was a bargain relative to Ottawa's standing in the betting marketplace. Elsewhere in Las Vegas, for example, the Senators are 40-1 at the Venetian, 30-1 at all Station Casinos properties, 20-1 at Cal-Neva books, 18-1 at Leroy's, and 16-1 at MGM-Mirage casinos. By way of comparison, for offshore bettors, at Matchbook this morning there was $97 available on Ottawa at 28-1, $445 available at 22-1, at $500 available at 20-1.

The wide disparity in odds underscores the importance of shopping around before placing any sports wager, but particularly one in a future book.

Following is a rundown of the Stanley Cup odds on a handful of other contending teams I have been following (though not firing on to capture the Cup at the betting window) ...

-- The Capitals, who lead not only the Southeast Division but the entire NHL with 92 points, also upgraded their depth and experience for a playoff run by adding forward Scott Walker, center Eric Belanger and defensemen Joe Corvo and Milan Jurcina.

"I don't know if we're the favorite," coach Bruce Boudreau told the Washington Post. "But any time you have the chance to improve your team without giving up a lot, that's a pretty good exchange."

Indeed, Washington is either the Stanley Cup favorite or a close second or third choice, depending on where you shop. The price on Washington to win the Cup is currently as low as 2-1 in Las Vegas, at the Leroy's joints, but it can also be found at 3-1 (MGM-Mirage), 7-2 (Stations), 4-1 (Hilton) and 9-2 (Cal-Neva and the Venetian). Matchbook has more than $1,000 available at plus-375, not as good as the best Vegas has to offer.

Las Vegas odds are current as of this week, and as always are subject to change.

-- The San Jose Sharks, tied with Chicago for the most points in the Western Conference, command short prices in NHL future books but have to prove they can avert delirium tremens brought on by the Olympics. The Sharks had more Olympians than any NHL team and had five players on the ice in the gold medal final in which Canada edged the United States.

When the San Francisco Chronicle's Ray Ratto asked goaltender Evgeni Nabokov if there were any worries about the team getting back down to NHL business after the Winter Games, Nabokov's replay was less than inspiring: "I hope not." Ratto speculated, probably accurately, that Nabokov was measuring his words.

That can't be comforting to San Jose backers holding tickets on the Sharks to win the Cup at 7-2 (Leroy's), 4-1 (Cal-Neva), or 5-1 (Hilton, Venetian). At Matchbook, there's $21 available at plus-470 and $3,700 at 7-2.

-- Perhaps the most intriguing story in the NHL comes from Hockeytown, where the Detroit Red Wings figure to be a dangerous opponent in the playoffs ... if they can qualify. The Red Wings, plagued by questions about an aging roster and team depth, are in a tight race for the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot.

Reflecting their uncertain status, odds on the Red Wings are all over the board.

Offshore, Matchbook has $100 available at 17-1, $600 at 15-1, and ... well, that's it.

In Las Vegas, Detroit can be found at 20-1 (Cal-Neva), 13-1 (Hilton), 12-1 (several properties including MGM-Mirage and Station), 10-1 (Leroy's) and 4-1 (Harrah's joints).
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

I thought everyone was playing for second place and Chicago was winning it, no?

Sens and LA are interesting long shots IMO. Detroit is a name only.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

I have :

Ottawa +5000
Tampa Bay +10000
Buffalo +8000
Anaheim +10000
Nashville +10000
Philly +4050
Boston +8050
Los Angeles +4050

Maybe a few more but I forget:+textinb3
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

I love how people think Chicago, Wash, San Jose have to best shot to win the cup. Probably thought Boston and San Jose last year too. lol

Its hockey, its crapshoot, took Pens futures last year when they were in 10th place. :LMAO

There's a reason why don't see very many -500, -700, in nhl series.

Like Philly will be laying 10 to 1 against Wash, joke
 
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Eyeballing 50/1 appears to really have value, I'm sure I'll agree. And shopping for the best price is of course important.......but, at this time of the year, not exactly the way you should be considering what is "value" in your future bets. I don't know enough about hockey to determine an accurate series price, I'm just going by standings, but you have to consider this scenario with regards to the playoffs:

Ott vs Phil (home ice)
Ott vs NJ (no home ice)
Ott vs Wash (no home ice)
Ott vs Chi (? home ice)

Now, if you use the predicted series prices and a parlay starting in the 1st series and ending in the finals falls short of 50/1, you have value.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Senators problem is heart. They played in the 2007 Cup Finals and got destroyed physically by Anaheim. That team has always had a 'heart' problem. I'm not even sure who their goalie is. Great regular season team, but when push comes to shove, this team disappears.

The NHL playoffs are a street fight. You need to be physically and mentally tough. This has been the problem with the Sharks too. Their 'best player' Joe Thornton seems to shrink in the big games. Another problem with the Sharks has been their inability to get sufficient rest for starting goalie Nabakov. I'm also concerned with Nabby's mental state after a thrashing for the ages at the hands of Canada. This can be a huge shot at confidence, not to mention that SJ very seldom rests Nabby.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

I love how people think Chicago, Wash, San Jose have to best shot to win the cup. Probably thought Boston and San Jose last year too. lol

Its hockey, its crapshoot, took Pens futures last year when they were in 10th place. :LMAO

There's a reason why don't see very many -500, -700, in nhl series.

Like Philly will be laying 10 to 1 against Wash, joke

Well, the Red Wings were chalk and made it to the finals. Easily could make money laying off. It does seem like more long-shots hit in hockey, but to say there is no value in teams like Chicago and Wash is wrong. Not saying Chicago will win it, but their road to make it out of the west is pretty easy.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Well, the Red Wings were chalk and made it to the finals. Easily could make money laying off. It does seem like more long-shots hit in hockey, but to say there is no value in teams like Chicago and Wash is wrong. Not saying Chicago will win it, but their road to make it out of the west is pretty easy.

Those teams can still win but its not like the nba.

chicago vs detroit
chicago vs LA
chicago vs san jose

easy? could be?
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Those teams can still win but its not like the nba.

chicago vs detroit
chicago vs LA
chicago vs san jose

easy? could be?

So you wouldn't take a +450 team in the finals. They can name the score vs Detroit this year.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

most online books have crappy odds, just checkout betcris and the likes.

The value on chicago/wash was at the start of the season, not now.

its all a mini stock market buy low sell high.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

So you wouldn't take a +450 team in the finals. They can name the score vs Detroit this year.

Yup. But you have to sweat out 3 series before that.

regular season is a joke.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

most online books have crappy odds, just checkout betcris and the likes.

The value on chicago/wash was at the start of the season, not now.

its all a mini stock market buy low sell high.

5 Dimes has good odds, it does pay to shop around though. I agree there is little value in Washington. There are a few teams who can make it. Chicago only has one real team to worry about.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

5 Dimes has good odds, it does pay to shop around though. I agree there is little value in Washington. There are a few teams who can make it. Chicago only has one real team to worry about.

5dimes or thegreek usually has the best odds.

For some reason Pinny has no futures on the nhl.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

5dimes or thegreek usually has the best odds.

For some reason Pinny has no futures on the nhl.

Yes but sometimes mid-level bargains can be found on Bet Jam.
 
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

At 50-1 that is a great bet. That is the odds usually on teams in 11th place that have to fight to get into the playoffs. I mean really 50-1 on the Sens and 20-1 on the Wings is ridiculous. Even at 100% health they might have enough to get by one team at best.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

At 50-1 that is a great bet. That is the odds usually on teams in 11th place that have to fight to get into the playoffs. I mean really 50-1 on the Sens and 20-1 on the Wings is ridiculous. Even at 100% health they might have enough to get by one team at best.

thegreek had wings +2550 couple days ago:thumbsup
 

felonee

EOG Veteran
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Blackhawks goalies have head games against each other.... doomed..... feel free to bump this if they win the Cup.... as I will be too delirious with glee to hold a grudge...
 
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

thegreek had wings +2550 couple days ago:thumbsup

Wings are at least 50-1 in my book. They are beat up and old and give me no sense they are ready for a long run in the spring. Plus I don't even know if they have a 50% chance of making the playoffs with a strong field within 4 points of their 8th spot.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Wings are at least 50-1 in my book. They are beat up and old and give me no sense they are ready for a long run in the spring. Plus I don't even know if they have a 50% chance of making the playoffs with a strong field within 4 points of their 8th spot.

43.4% right now
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

at this rate you might as well get carolina at 400-1 or more, they might make the playoffs:LMAO
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

red wings crush chicago in the 1st round, hossa curse lives on

:cocktail
 

Integrity

EOG Master
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Not after seeing how Brodeur played in the Olympics. Still, probably worth a shot in the 20-1 range.:cheers


thanks munson :cheers

dont follow hockey as much these days, but ive always liked new jersey's style of play when i was younger

think kovalchuk can help put them over the top

also, i wonder if the coyotes could really make noise. i have a friend who is always hyping them up. i say that if they do make a miracle run, they'd prob get to the finals and lose
 

NoNewbieca

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

No one wants to play with Wings in the first round of the playoffs. No one. They have quality forwards and solid team defence. The big mystery is in net. Osgood has lost it. Howard is unproven and inconsistent. They have been banged up all year, only now getting the pieces back together (Franzen, Holmstrom, Kronwall etc).
Ottawa has no goalie either. The goalie was SUPPOSED to be Leclaire, acquired from Columbus, but he has fizzled. Brian Elliott is young, inconsistent and unproven. Spezza on forward has been maddeningly inconsistent and spotty with scoring. They are an intriguing pick however.

If I needed to choose a long shot, how about Buffalo!?! Best goalie in the game Miller (see Olympics) and a good team concept with no stars. Phoenix could surprise a few teams with the additions they made at the trade deadline (Stepniak, and the steal for Wolski from Colorado).
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

No one wants to play with Wings in the first round of the playoffs. No one. They have quality forwards and solid team defence. The big mystery is in net. Osgood has lost it. Howard is unproven and inconsistent. They have been banged up all year, only now getting the pieces back together (Franzen, Holmstrom, Kronwall etc).
Ottawa has no goalie either. The goalie was SUPPOSED to be Leclaire, acquired from Columbus, but he has fizzled. Brian Elliott is young, inconsistent and unproven. Spezza on forward has been maddeningly inconsistent and spotty with scoring. They are an intriguing pick however.

If I needed to choose a long shot, how about Buffalo!?! Best goalie in the game Miller (see Olympics) and a good team concept with no stars. Phoenix could surprise a few teams with the additions they made at the trade deadline (Stepniak, and the steal for Wolski from Colorado).
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney


chicago ain't shit, can't even keep a lead against the pathetic red wings at home, goalie shitting his pants like i predicted, little preview of the playoffs

i'm sure the hawks can't wait to play a healthy wings team in the 1st round.

bunch of little pussies

I wished chicago would make the final so the pens can crush them again old school style and make hossa :hangt:hangt:hangt:hangt:hangt
 
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

So you wouldn't take a +450 team in the finals. They can name the score vs Detroit this year.

The Hawks could do that when half of Detroit's roster was hurt. It's a different story now that the Wings are healthy and the Hawks goaltenders have been exposed.
 

Jambruins

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Just pick the team who is playing well and has a solid goaltender. Look at what Miller did in the Olympics. I am not saying that team will win but solid goaltending is what wins in the playoffs.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

chicago ain't shit, can't even keep a lead against the pathetic red wings at home, goalie shitting his pants like i predicted, little preview of the playoffs

i'm sure the hawks can't wait to play a healthy wings team in the 1st round.

bunch of little pussies

I wished chicago would make the final so the pens can crush them again old school style and make hossa :hangt:hangt:hangt:hangt:hangt

Regular season means squat, especially when one team is secure in their playoff position and one team is fighting for every point.

Chi is just fucking around till the real games start, they're just going thru the motions waitinfg for the playoffs.
 

K13

EOG Dedicated
Re: Betting NHL Stanley Cup futures by Jeff Haney

Regular season means squat, especially when one team is secure in their playoff position and one team is fighting for every point.

Chi is just fucking around till the real games start, they're just going thru the motions waitinfg for the playoffs.

exactly, once the real games start they won't be winning like the regular season
 
Top