Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
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OSU COWBOYS
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Alf had a tough week last week. I am sure it will turn around.
I can tell you the secret is out on his plays and the market goes NUTS on his selections.
This week the lines have moved 10-15% per selection.
That is retarded. I might lose but right before they tee off I will be on the other side of all of them as the value has most certainly flipped to the other side.
Getting Alf's stuff right of the gate is PRIMO. Getting it today, after the market has gone haywire, is flushing money down the toilet.
Alf had a tough week last week. I am sure it will turn around.
I can tell you the secret is out on his plays and the market goes NUTS on his selections.
This week the lines have moved 10-15% per selection.
That is retarded. I might lose but right before they tee off I will be on the other side of all of them as the value has most certainly flipped to the other side.
Getting Alf's stuff right of the gate is PRIMO. Getting it today, after the market has gone haywire, is flushing money down the toilet.
Timely Hero
Jacoby Blows
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Or maybe since he's right more than he's wrong playing the opposite side has no value. :+clueless
Or maybe since he's right more than he's wrong playing the opposite side has no value. :+clueless
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
OSU- don't fade him. Without taking the numbers into account, he will pick the matchups correctly about 70% of the time. Even a 40 cent move will not bring the value to the other side. But you are right about the moves. Couples went from +100 to -145 yesterday vs. DL III, and even further offshore, where I saw it as high as -160 last night.
OSU- don't fade him. Without taking the numbers into account, he will pick the matchups correctly about 70% of the time. Even a 40 cent move will not bring the value to the other side. But you are right about the moves. Couples went from +100 to -145 yesterday vs. DL III, and even further offshore, where I saw it as high as -160 last night.
coloradobuff
EOG Veteran
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Timely Hero
Jacoby Blows
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
OSU just has to beat the closing number. That's all you need to do to win. Even though if it was that easy, plenty more would win, but that hasn't been discussed here before. You still have to be able to pick the right side; probably the most overlooked thing by math bettors.
OSU just has to beat the closing number. That's all you need to do to win. Even though if it was that easy, plenty more would win, but that hasn't been discussed here before. You still have to be able to pick the right side; probably the most overlooked thing by math bettors.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
If you consistently beat the closing #, you'll win long term. Fact.
Um, no.
If you consistently beat the closing #, you'll win long term. Fact.
Timely Hero
Jacoby Blows
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
I don't agree, but I'm far from the smartest and most educated gambler. Beating the closing number is just an aspect of betting, IMO, but I could easily be acting like an idiot.
I don't agree, but I'm far from the smartest and most educated gambler. Beating the closing number is just an aspect of betting, IMO, but I could easily be acting like an idiot.
OSU COWBOYS
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
A little later tonight I will do my best to explain why fading Alf at tee time is a profitable situation. Be back.
A little later tonight I will do my best to explain why fading Alf at tee time is a profitable situation. Be back.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Well, I'll be gone the rest of the day. I'm actually meeting Alf for dinner tonight. And I can't be late because its my turn to pay. But I will look forward to reading it when I get home.
BTW, I got Couples at +100 yesterday morning. It's now trading around -160. So I've got the very best of it. That doesn't make me a winner, especially since we know the current market is based largely on one man's opinion. If Freddie goes out there and his back hurts, my $400 is gone.
Well, I'll be gone the rest of the day. I'm actually meeting Alf for dinner tonight. And I can't be late because its my turn to pay. But I will look forward to reading it when I get home.
BTW, I got Couples at +100 yesterday morning. It's now trading around -160. So I've got the very best of it. That doesn't make me a winner, especially since we know the current market is based largely on one man's opinion. If Freddie goes out there and his back hurts, my $400 is gone.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Sounds just like RAS.:cheers
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
BTw, it's not a numbers game with him. He used to caddy, knows everyone, understands how each player's swing correlates to every course, and works harder than anyone. He follows 500 people related to golf on twitter. His son is one of the top amateur golfers in the US. The guy knows tons about the game. That's why Spiro had him making lines at one point. He makes better lines than the guys who are paid to do it. I just disagree that waiting for the line to move, even 40 cents, is going to translate into success betting against him.
BTw, it's not a numbers game with him. He used to caddy, knows everyone, understands how each player's swing correlates to every course, and works harder than anyone. He follows 500 people related to golf on twitter. His son is one of the top amateur golfers in the US. The guy knows tons about the game. That's why Spiro had him making lines at one point. He makes better lines than the guys who are paid to do it. I just disagree that waiting for the line to move, even 40 cents, is going to translate into success betting against him.
Iona
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
To put the line moves in perspective, ALF released three plays yesterday at 5:16 EST, they were:
Fred Couples -115 vs. DJ Trahan
Luke Donald -135 vs. Adam Scott
Justin Leonard -130 vs. Chad Campbell
When I checked the lines this morning (9AM EST) they were as follows:
Fred Couples -145
Luke Donald - 170
Justin Leonard - 165
All my outs are late to the puntch with their opening golf numbers and with baskets still going on I have not really paid much attention. Nevertheless, I still would not chase these numbers.
FWIW, Alf did mention that Sportbook.com is first out of the box with their Golf matchups and Pinnacle, Chris, 5 Dimes et al all copy their current numbers shortly thereafter.
Anyway, Alf knows his golf and I will be looking forward to the show.
To put the line moves in perspective, ALF released three plays yesterday at 5:16 EST, they were:
Fred Couples -115 vs. DJ Trahan
Luke Donald -135 vs. Adam Scott
Justin Leonard -130 vs. Chad Campbell
When I checked the lines this morning (9AM EST) they were as follows:
Fred Couples -145
Luke Donald - 170
Justin Leonard - 165
All my outs are late to the puntch with their opening golf numbers and with baskets still going on I have not really paid much attention. Nevertheless, I still would not chase these numbers.
FWIW, Alf did mention that Sportbook.com is first out of the box with their Golf matchups and Pinnacle, Chris, 5 Dimes et al all copy their current numbers shortly thereafter.
Anyway, Alf knows his golf and I will be looking forward to the show.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Couples rode a golf cart all 3 rounds last week. Walking 4 rounds will either get him this week or at Augusta National. Plus, Trahan has finished T10 T14 T17 T7 his last 4. I just took +135.
Couples rode a golf cart all 3 rounds last week. Walking 4 rounds will either get him this week or at Augusta National. Plus, Trahan has finished T10 T14 T17 T7 his last 4. I just took +135.
patswin
EOG Veteran
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
good stuff look forward to reading this:thumbsup
good stuff look forward to reading this:thumbsup
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
What's funny about this is between the two, Trahan is the one with the bad back. Freddie is heading home and feeling great.
What's funny about this is between the two, Trahan is the one with the bad back. Freddie is heading home and feeling great.
OSU COWBOYS
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
You could be right. Will you do me a favor though? Ask Alf if he would bet his plays at close, if they have moved 10-15% from when he released them.
I'll lay a dollar to a donut I know what the answer is. :thumbsup
You could be right. Will you do me a favor though? Ask Alf if he would bet his plays at close, if they have moved 10-15% from when he released them.
I'll lay a dollar to a donut I know what the answer is. :thumbsup
OSU COWBOYS
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
And BTW, I do not discount Alf and what he does. He is the RAS of golf. There is no doubt he is the best of the best. However, there comes a point when the lemmings drive the number so far it becomes a -EV situation to play his side.
That is my point more than anything.
And BTW, I do not discount Alf and what he does. He is the RAS of golf. There is no doubt he is the best of the best. However, there comes a point when the lemmings drive the number so far it becomes a -EV situation to play his side.
That is my point more than anything.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
I don't disagree with this at all. And I know Alf would agree. You've got to get a reasonable number or not chase. However, there is a big difference from being -EV to play his side and +EV playing the other side. It sounds like we agree that neither is the right move.
I don't disagree with this at all. And I know Alf would agree. You've got to get a reasonable number or not chase. However, there is a big difference from being -EV to play his side and +EV playing the other side. It sounds like we agree that neither is the right move.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
There were two Couples matchups widely available. He was +100 vs. DL III which went to Couples -160, and he was -105 vs. Trahan which went as high as -140. DL III shot 80 today, and Trahan 78, so unless Freddy wakes up paralyzed tomorrow, both will cash easily as neither of the opponents will even sniff making the cut.
There were two Couples matchups widely available. He was +100 vs. DL III which went to Couples -160, and he was -105 vs. Trahan which went as high as -140. DL III shot 80 today, and Trahan 78, so unless Freddy wakes up paralyzed tomorrow, both will cash easily as neither of the opponents will even sniff making the cut.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
I know my golf...but Alf knows more...
He is a golf guru...
I know my golf...but Alf knows more...
He is a golf guru...
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
******
Enough said. Looks like we've recruited the right guy to preview The Masters. I will ask Alf the question raised by OSUCOWBOYS, "Would Alf bet his recommendations at the close of betting?"
******
Enough said. Looks like we've recruited the right guy to preview The Masters. I will ask Alf the question raised by OSUCOWBOYS, "Would Alf bet his recommendations at the close of betting?"
railbird
EOG Master
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Did we really need Alf to tell us to take Fred Couples coming off of 3 wins and playing on a course he won his last pga win was and where he played in college. I dont think the move had as much to do with Alf as people giving him credit for.
Did we really need Alf to tell us to take Fred Couples coming off of 3 wins and playing on a course he won his last pga win was and where he played in college. I dont think the move had as much to do with Alf as people giving him credit for.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Got a feeling that when Alf talks golf, even Rail listens...
Tell me you will accept a challenge in golf from Alf, Birdie...Easy Cheddah
Got a feeling that when Alf talks golf, even Rail listens...
Tell me you will accept a challenge in golf from Alf, Birdie...Easy Cheddah
railbird
EOG Master
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
I was giving out Fred Couples 2 months ago when he was -120 to Loren Roberts on the Champs tour, Alf is late to the party. I was giving out Boom Boom at +500 to win NewPort Beach. Did you listen Dinosaur?
I was giving out Fred Couples 2 months ago when he was -120 to Loren Roberts on the Champs tour, Alf is late to the party. I was giving out Boom Boom at +500 to win NewPort Beach. Did you listen Dinosaur?
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
The difference, Railturd, is that Alf is totally transparent. For years his record was posted at VI for all to see, and I can tell you with absolute certainty that his record was always posted using widely available lines and point spreads, even though more often than not it made his record look much worse than his actual P&L. And he was still a winner. You on the other hand, make it a practice to past post games, never post a record, and in general act like the village idiot. You don't need to tell everyone how good you are. If you're any good, the board will figure it out.
The difference, Railturd, is that Alf is totally transparent. For years his record was posted at VI for all to see, and I can tell you with absolute certainty that his record was always posted using widely available lines and point spreads, even though more often than not it made his record look much worse than his actual P&L. And he was still a winner. You on the other hand, make it a practice to past post games, never post a record, and in general act like the village idiot. You don't need to tell everyone how good you are. If you're any good, the board will figure it out.
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
BTW, I am positive that Alf would have been fading Trahan this week no matter what matchup he was in. The guy has a bad back and is hurting. Meanwhile we have guys on this board taking Trahan because of the perception that Couples was the one that physically couldn't handle the four rounds. That's not to take a shot at anyone. My only point is that Alf knew which guy was hurt and which guy wasn't. Information like that is how you make money betting golf.
BTW, I am positive that Alf would have been fading Trahan this week no matter what matchup he was in. The guy has a bad back and is hurting. Meanwhile we have guys on this board taking Trahan because of the perception that Couples was the one that physically couldn't handle the four rounds. That's not to take a shot at anyone. My only point is that Alf knew which guy was hurt and which guy wasn't. Information like that is how you make money betting golf.
ArchieBunker
EOG Dedicated
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
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Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>Did we really need Alf to tell us to take Fred Couples coming off of 3 wins and playing on a course he won his last pga win was and where he played in college
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I don't know if we need Alf or not but we damn sure don't need someone trying to tout us that is clueless. Couples is NOT playing on the course where his last PGA win was... that was on the "members" course, Rail, not the 'tournament' course they've been using the last couple of years. It is at the same resort but not the same course. Nice info you're using to handicap with...:LMAO
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Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week <HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>Did we really need Alf to tell us to take Fred Couples coming off of 3 wins and playing on a course he won his last pga win was and where he played in college
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I don't know if we need Alf or not but we damn sure don't need someone trying to tout us that is clueless. Couples is NOT playing on the course where his last PGA win was... that was on the "members" course, Rail, not the 'tournament' course they've been using the last couple of years. It is at the same resort but not the same course. Nice info you're using to handicap with...:LMAO
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
I make my living wagering on sports. 30%+ is made wagering on golf. I have strict guidelines in finding value. I will be in Augusta on Wednesday. Maybe I will run into Alf on the driving range. Good Luck
ChuteBoxe
EOG Master
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
:cheers
:cheers
Re: Not a golf guy, but im looking forward to Alf breaking down the masters next week
Great play. Waited for the followers to donate their cash too. Thats the way to bring home the moola.