So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Doesn't the market know Terry is back and healthy?

Is the OT game and flight back last night really worth 5-6 points?

I just dont get it. Someone help me please.

TIA
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

I've been watching some lines lately and a lot of the suspect numbers seem to be a result of teams playing OT the night before.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

I made the line pick (actually Dallas -0.5) so it's no play for me. Curious what you think the number should be?
 
B

betit

EOG Enthusiast
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

shocked too

didn't understand this line at all
 
J

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

I'm going to hold off in the hope of being able to take Orlando in the 2H, but I made it Orlando -4.

--Orlando has performed well last year and this in their 3+ situations
--Those old Dallas legs haven't performed well in B2B's
--The OT win wasn't just any win, but coming back from double digits in final 4:00 often dulls a team next out.
--Orlando gets a couple of players back.
--Dallas won in Orlando when Orlando shot 4/25 3PS's, "We had open shots" said Van Gundy at the time...Orlando has a history of righting such wrongs.
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

jfhst18 said:
I'm going to hold off in the hope of being able to take Orlando in the 2H, but I made it Orlando -4.

--Orlando has performed well last year and this in their 3+ situations
--Those old Dallas legs haven't performed well in B2B's
--The OT win wasn't just any win, but coming back from double digits in final 4:00 often dulls a team next out.
--Orlando gets a couple of players back.
--Dallas won in Orlando when Orlando shot 4/25 3PS's, "We had open shots" said Van Gundy at the time...Orlando has a history of righting such wrongs.
Click to expand...

This is the comment I give most credit too. But is that worth 5-6 points?
 
J

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

If I've accurately characterized why the linesmaker made the line that he did, then these reasons are clearly worth that many points. After all, the line opened -1 and the money has come in on Orlando.
 
royalfan

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

Thought it was strange at first glance also. I will resist temptation and pass. Have learned over time that I typically don't hit a big enough winning percentage on these types of plays.
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

Orlando has been off since Sunday, Dallas is 3rd in 4 nights.
 
T

tripp

EOG Master
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

orlando definitely a better team to me, but at home not sure dallas should be dogs. would have a hard time playing them in this situation though, just a game to lay off for me
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

jfhst18 said:
If I've accurately characterized why the linesmaker made the line that he did, then these reasons are clearly worth that many points. After all, the line opened -1 and the money has come in on Orlando.
Click to expand...

Looks like you had a better line than all of us, hope you won some money out of it. What do you use to set your lines? Do you have a stat model, Monte Carlo, set them based on 'qualitative factors', etc?
 
J

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

Thanks for asking Tim. Like I said I waited for the 2H, so it was a no-bet for me.

I have a database I use that generates past performances that I study to pull a line out of my brain. Then I have reports that indicate team performance tendencies by halves. My line discrepancies throw up my candidate plays, but then these by halves reports indicate the part of game where the value is. For this game I'd hoped Dallas would hang for a halve because the figures indicated they'd fall apart 2H.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: So why is Orlando favored on the road vs Dallas?

jfhst18 said:
Thanks for asking Tim. Like I said I waited for the 2H, so it was a no-bet for me.

I have a database I use that generates past performances that I study to pull a line out of my brain. Then I have reports that indicate team performance tendencies by halves. My line discrepancies throw up my candidate plays, but then these by halves reports indicate the part of game where the value is. For this game I'd hoped Dallas would hang for a halve because the figures indicated they'd fall apart 2H.
Click to expand...

Interesting. So you have an NBA database that has the halves/quarters info?
 
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