A Score in the First Inning Stats....

JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
A Score in the First Inning Stats....

I'm tracking "A Score in the 1st Inning" stats, for those who like to play this prop.



Pittsburgh has scored in the 1st inning in 7 of their first 11 games, and unbelievably, the Cubs have yet to give up a 1st inning run!

:cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Making corrections! I failed to make the annotation for when BOTH teams score in the same game! Argg!
 
kayvebear

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Any time of system involed in betting this prop? or just follow the streak?
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

kayvebear said:
Any time of system involed in betting this prop? or just follow the streak?
Click to expand...

This is just for info only. The only one I know about was the last two years playing the Florida Marlins for A Score in the 1st Inn YES was profitable.

I'm just testing the waters, thinking about tracking the units on teams playing each other that are both 55% and up for the "Yes", and 45% and lower for the "No", especially where the line is +100 or better. But I'm still checking it out.

:cheers
 
ballwonder

ballwonder

EOG Master
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Nice work Jersey thanks for sharing, curious to see how the teams fare in the weeks and months ahead. Great stuff.
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

you have to count the juice into this type stuff.

sometimes these are very high -130 or more


good info though jersey:cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Thanks guys.

BigDaddy, I was going to track the units for each team, but then decided that would be too much as they can go back and forth between being a good "YES" team and "NO" team also But I am going to track the teams playing each other, 55% and up for the YES, and 45% and down for the NO.

Today's plays would be:

A Score in the 1st Inning YES
FLA(58%)/PHILLY(75%)

A Score in the 1st Inning NO
COL(45%)/ATL(36%)
HOU(36%)/CHICAGO(27%)
KC(45%)/MINN(42%)

I'm waiting for the lines to come out.

:cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Today's plays:

A Score in the 1st Inning YES
FLA(58%)/PHILLY(75%) -130

A Score in the 1st Inning NO
COL(45%)/ATL(36%) -120
HOU(36%)/CHICAGO(27%) -145
KC(45%)/MINN(42%) +100
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

A Score in the 1st Inning YES
FLA(58%)/PHILLY(75%) -130 LOST

A Score in the 1st Inning NO
COL(45%)/ATL(36%) -120 LOST
HOU(36%)/CHICAGO(27%) -145 WON
KC(45%)/MINN(42%) +100 LOST

1-3 -2.50

I would of been better off just taking the NO for the bottom 4 teams yesterday as they went 3-1.
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

thenatti said:
Are you keeping up with these stats?
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm now also tracking this for the ballparks as well.

Updated thru Tuesday's night games:



Current trends/streaks:

"Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Rangers tied with the best "Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop" record at 10-3 (77%), are 8-2 (80%) for the "Yes" in their last 10.

Pirates still at the top tied with Texas for the "Yes", are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9.

Indians are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 with the "Yes" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Diamondbacks are now 7-3 (70%) in their last 10 for the "Yes" and its won 4 in a row.


"No Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Cubs are now 11-3 (79%) with the "No Score 1st Inn" prop, its now won 5 straight and is 8-1 (89%) in their last 9.

Angels are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Mets are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 5 in a row.

Blue Jays are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 for the "No".

Tigers are 6-2 (75%) in their last 8 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

:cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

This is by Ballpark. Maybe we can see an edge in the hitter and non-hitter ballparks.

Thru Tuesday there have been 208 games played. The prop "A Score in the 1st inning Yes" has hit in 99 of them. 99-109 (48%).

I want to see if we can match up good "Yes" teams with good parks for the "Yes" prop. And good "No" teams with good ballparks for the "No" prop.

 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Here's my Wednesday plays:

WEDS PLAYS: TeamGames% Ballpark%

SF GIANTS 36%
SD PADRES 43% 50% NO -125
SF: T. Wellemeyer (0-2, 9.58)
SD: J. Garland (0-2, 3.60)

CHI CUBS 21%
NY METS 43% 50% NO -105
CHC: C. Silva (1-0, 0.69)
NYM: O. Perez (0-1, 3.75)

NY YANKEES 46%
OAK ATHLETICS 40% 44% NO -125
NYY: P. Hughes (1-0, 3.60)
OAK: B. Sheets (1-0, 2.65)

DET TIGERS 43%
LA ANGELS 40% 44% NO -120
DET: J. Bonderman (1-1, 9.00)
LAA: J. Weaver (2-0, 2.84)
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....





Current trends/streaks:

"Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Rangers tied with the best "Yes" record at 11-3 (79%) with Pittsburgh, are 9-2 (82%) for the "Yes" in their last 11.

Pirates still at the top tied with Texas for the "Yes", are 8-2 (80%) in their last 10.

Diamondbacks are now 8-3 (73%) in their last 11 for the "Yes" and its won 5 in a row.

"No Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Cubs are now 12-3 (80%) with the "NO" prop, its now won 6 straight and is 9-1 (90%) in their last 10.

Mets are 7-1 (88%) in their last 8 for the "NO" prop and its won 6 in a row.

BALLPARKS-
In Pittsburgh, the YES is now 7-1 (88%).
In Arzona, the YES has won 5 straight.
In Chicago Wrigley field, the NO is 1-5 (17%)
In St. Louis the, NO has won 4 straight.
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

For accuracy you need to factor in the Game TOTAL. It varies from

6 RUNS = -166 no runs
11 RUNS = +111 no runs :cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Updated charts:

I added the totals to the Ballpark Chart. You can see how the 1st Inning "Yes" has done for each line total. And I also broke down the High, Mid, and Low average Ballparks for each total. Not sure if anything meaningful will come out of it though.





:cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

<table style="width: 975px;" id="tblBaseballPropsGame" class="lines" rgfloat="440,600" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width=""><tbody><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>ATL/NYM no score 1st inn -130

Atlanta (38%) vs. NY Mets (35%) with 8 "No Score in 1st Inn's" in a row, playing in New York where the "No" is 7-4 (64%).

:cheers


</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
T

TOTALSpro

2
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

I have been playing TOTALS for twenty + years and over the last two years I have been working this angle on YES/NO 1st INN...

Thank You for all your effort in posting this incredibly detailed stat sheet.

This is why EOG Rules!!! Because of people like you!
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Thanks for the kind words TOTALSpro!

One more play, although its the highest chalk I've seen yet, but then again total is set at 11.

PHILLY/ARIZONA YES a score 1st inn -145

Phillies (63%) vs. Arizona (63%) playing in Arizona where the "Yes" is 7-3 (70%).

I'm hoping for the quick Homerun.

PHI: N. Figueroa (1-1, 2.45)
Figueroa making his first start of 2010, has faced the current Diamondbacks only a very small amount of At Bats, but standing out was facing Mark Reynolds only twice, and both times Reynolds took him deep. (Reynolds bats cleanup though). ARI Leadoff hitter Kelly Johnson hit 2 HR's yesterday.

ARI: I. Kennedy (0-1, 5.65)
Ian has already been tagged for 4 home runs in just 14.1 innings pitched, which is good news for leader Chase Utley! (Chase bats 3rd)

Philly is ranked 4th in hitting, Arizona is 7th.
:cheers
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

JerseyShop101 said:
<table style="width: 975px;" id="tblBaseballPropsGame" class="lines" rgfloat="440,600" width="" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>ATL/NYM no score 1st inn -130

Atlanta (38%) vs. NY Mets (35%) with 8 "No Score in 1st Inn's" in a row, playing in New York where the "No" is 7-4 (64%).

:cheers


</td></tr></tbody></table>
Click to expand...

Jersey,
I dont want to dampen your enthusiaism but so you know, the no vig price of a no score in the 1st was -107. Thats what your up against here :cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

WINBET said:
Jersey,
I dont want to dampen your enthusiaism but so you know, the no vig price of a no score in the 1st was -107. Thats what your up against here :cheers
Click to expand...

WINBET,

The books juice the hell out of this prop to begin with the 30 cent lines.

Could you please give me the no vig prices, for each of the totals 6.5 thru 11.5 ?

Just so you know in my chart above I had the highest total at 11.5, but excel automatically rounded it up to 12, and I didn't notice til after I posted it.

:cheers
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

Basic no vig prices for a no run 1st inning. It could be argued that the bullpen has some input to the Total but its probably minimal, likewise the extra 0.6% chance of the top order scoring in the 1st as opposed to any other inning.

6.5 = -146
7.0 = -136
7.5 = -128
8.0 = -119
8.5 = -113
9.0 = -106
9.5 = -101
10. = +105
10.5 = +110
11. = +116

Gave you the wrong figs earlier :cheers
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

WINBET said:
Basic no vig prices for a no run 1st inning. It could be argued that the bullpen has some input to the Total but its probably minimal, likewise the extra 0.6% chance of the top order scoring in the 1st as opposed to any other inning.

6.5 = -146
7.0 = -136
7.5 = -128
8.0 = -119
8.5 = -113
9.0 = -106
9.5 = -101
10. = +105
10.5 = +110
11. = +116

Gave you the wrong figs earlier :cheers
Click to expand...
Thanks WINBET!!!

:cheers
 
D

diamond44

EOG Dedicated
Re: A Score in the First Inning Stats....

GREAT WORK JERSEY, AND WINBET. I'M IN THE LEARNING BUISNESS AND THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING GOIN ON IN YOUR THREADS WORTH LEARNING. THANKS FOR ALL THE TIME AND WORK.
 
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