Thirty Plays in 30 Days

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

I hear you dad, it reminds me of when people would ask me who my favorite football team was, and I'd say, "whoever I bet on.":LMAO
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Fans are emotionally invested, gamblers are financially invested. I fit the latter category.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

JK,

How about the way this game is going to be played? You think that will be an issue?

For Northwestern Wildcats-Illinois Illini game at Wrigley, offense will use one end zone - ESPN Chicago


I thought about the "under" because of the possible disruption and disorientation of the one-way play, but decided to pass on the wager. Wind appears to be no factor. I love the coaching edge Northwestern possesses.

Quick aside.......both Fitzgerald and Zook have visited Wrigley Field prior to today's game. Both men sang "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" during the seventh-inning stretch of a Cubs game this season and while neither coach sounded very good, I was amazed to see Zook used an index card to remember the lyrics. Zook is not a bright guy and he knows it.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Wind update: ESPN showed the flags at Wrigley blowing in from center. GameDay host Chris Fowler called it a crosswind. It looked to me as if the wind direction would help the offenses. The total is 49.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Fitzgerald owns Zook, winning six of last seven games in the series.

Small nitpick.

Zook has only coached Illinois 6 full seasons, thus only is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS against NW. Fitzgerald has only been the head coach for 4 full seasons (assistant coach before that). Further, the only time in this span that Illinois was more than a TD favorite, they won and covered.

However, the thrust of JK's post is correct and Zook, in general, has been a good fade, period.
 

tickingclock1

EOG Veteran
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Zook is not a bright guy and he knows it.

A caveat would be that he has surrounded himself with very good coordinators. Give him some credit: He understands hes not bright and has constructed his program well over the past year in spite of that fact.

In the same light a coach who isn't smart is a go against for me. So I like the play.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

A caveat would be that he has surrounded himself with very good coordinators. Give him some credit: He understands hes not bright and has constructed his program well over the past year in spite of that fact.

In the same light a coach who isn't smart is a go against for me. So I like the play.

Good point about coordinators and assistant coaches. Poor leaders can be propped up by excellent help.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21.....531 MINNESOTA +3.5 over West Virginia. Both teams are known for gritty defense and dominant rebounding. I like the 3.5-point head start in a game that could be decided on the final possession. Look for Minny's towering frontline of Mbakwe, Williams and Sampson (and back-up center Iverson) to overwhelm WVU's undersized rebounders Jones and Flowers. West Virginia possesses a toughness edge over most opponents, but that will not be the case tonight in the championship game of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Classic. Minny can grind with any team in the country. Tip-off time is 7:30 Eastern. Go Gophers!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Small nitpick.

Zook has only coached Illinois 6 full seasons, thus only is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS against NW. Fitzgerald has only been the head coach for 4 full seasons (assistant coach before that). Further, the only time in this span that Illinois was more than a TD favorite, they won and covered.

However, the thrust of JK's post is correct and Zook, in general, has been a good fade, period.

Thanks for the correction, Bob. Sloppy reporting on my part.
 

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21.....531 MINNESOTA +3.5 over West Virginia.

I've got a ticket on the other side, so just for fun here's a dissenting opinion. I think Minnesota spent their "A" game against NC, as AP wrote, "The Gophers (4-0) mobbed each other in front of the bench and danced around in a circle to celebrate the win." Further that win was more the result of Freshman PG Harrison Barnes disappearing than Minnesota breaking down a defense. When the Gophers played Sienna the Sienna guards were able to frustrate all entry passes, and the damage done by the Minnesota bigs was minimal--against WVU those lanes will get even smaller. And in a physical high profile game like this I also look for the Mountaineers to pick up six to ten points on free throw shooting accuracy.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

I've got a ticket on the other side, so just for fun here's a dissenting opinion. I think Minnesota spent their "A" game against NC, as AP wrote, "The Gophers (4-0) mobbed each other in front of the bench and danced around in a circle to celebrate the win." Further that win was more the result of Freshman PG Harrison Barnes disappearing than Minnesota breaking down a defense. When the Gophers played Sienna the Sienna guards were able to frustrate all entry passes, and the damage done by the Minnesota bigs was minimal--against WVU those lanes will get even smaller. And in a physical high profile game like this I also look for the Mountaineers to pick up six to ten points on free throw shooting accuracy.

Fair enough. It should be an entertaining early-season college hoop game if you like tough-minded defensive teams. Good luck with your Monday action, jfhst18.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Anaheim Ducks on the puck line tonight. They've been playing great and have been unlucky to lose their last 3 games. They're due to break thru.
 

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Good call John...the Minnesota bigs were able to do more than be big. Lesson learned.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Wonderful call. And you're right, WVA certainly did not disgrace. Both teams have nice futures.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Minny was the right side for the right reasons. The Gophers are triple tough: Nolen off the dribble, Hoffarber from beyond the arc and Mbakwe crashing the glass. And let's not forget about the 7-footers Sampson and Iverson.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22.....724 IOWA -1 over Long Beach State. This is the fourth-place game of the Paradise Jam in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands. The 49ers are playing their third game in four days. They are not a deep team as their starters played 184 of a possible 200 minutes in a 12-point victory over 0-3 St. Peter's. Iowa is the superior free-throw shooting team and the Hawkeyes figure to execute more efficiently in crunch time. Let's trust the Big Ten program over the Big West pedigree. Go Hawks!

November record: 11-10, glad to be laying reduced juice.:yay
 
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Tim i think he was talking about his record overall this month laying the reduced juice, not this one basketball wager. Im assuming he got most of the plays reduced.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Thanks for the winner, JK! Let's get a late month push going here!91023i2ndw;lGL on tonight's pick.:cheers
 
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

I think the reduced juice pertains to JK using the Pinny line for grading purposes, and thus taking advantage of -05 that the shop offers.

That's my interpretation.
 
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Hmm, what Vegas shop offers reduced on overnight college hoops? :finger004

And I don't think rail is going to be too happy with this selection, JK.
Remember Tim, this is an "exercise" for John, he can't be bothered with any consistency in how he grades plays or what juice he might be getting at any given moment. Per EOG Management: If you're not on your knees in John's threads, you don't belong there in the first place.

:yay
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Per EOG Management: If you're not on your knees in John's threads, you don't belong there in the first place.
:+textinb3 this was pretty funny.

I'm sure JK has a Pinny account and is betting reduced on these overnight, just like taking stabs at the Vegas establishment when I get a shot.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

Remember Tim, this is an "exercise" for John, he can't be bothered with any consistency in how he grades plays or what juice he might be getting at any given moment. Per EOG Management: If you're not on your knees in John's threads, you don't belong there in the first place.

:yay
I bought a set of kneepads long ago, probably at around the +25 unit mark. Now I'm up over 56 units and those 'ol kneepads are one of the best tools I have.:LMAO
 
Re: Thirty Plays in 30 Days

I read your post defending the mentality and goals of those who are just here for others to help them find some extra winners or buoy their own mediocre plays, Munson. You asked if I could respect it, and I'm afraid I can't make that leap, but I can at least understand where you're coming from. For myself, the only plays with significance are the ones I can generate myself, because those periods of mediocre results give me extra incentive to refine my systems and consider new criteria. I understand that it's a personal preference though, and the only thing that matters to others is the money, no matter how it comes into their hands. I don't like putting my results in anyone else's hands, which is probably why I was such a shitty employee for others until I finally made the leap of working for myself.

I do respect you as a person and a poster though, so I've done my best to stop raining on everyone's parade. I wish John's exercises were sturdy enough to withstand a little scrutiny, that's all. His blog today said that serious gamblers don't have time for academic debates which produce no "real winner," but I continue to believe that serious gamblers benefit from the exercise of their critical thinking skills no matter the end result. Like so many things in life, an obsession with results often blinds people to the ancillary benefits of personal growth on the way to those results, and that's why threads like this where so many people sound like mindless automatons in the hopes of placating today's "golden goose" offend my desire to scrutinize things in the hope of understanding them better.

Anyhow, you guys can get back to the "serious gambling" now. Best of luck to the shepherd as well as the sheep.
 
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