Gambling serious money on sporting events is a full-time job without the benefits of stock options, expense accounts, insurance coverage, vacation time or overtime pay. Furthermore, a paycheck is not guaranteed unless gamblers isolate significantly more winners than losers.
To offset the house edge, a sports bettor laying odds of 11-10 is required to record a winning rate of 52.38%.
Let's suppose a gambler makes approximately three plays a day over the course of the year. After 1,000 plays, his hypothetical record stands at 524 wins against 476 losses. Does the gambler win, lose or break even?
Answer: our gambler loses. And loses big.
He has spent an entire year of his life not earning a single dollar. Forty-eight games over the .500 mark in a sample of 1,000 plays is unacceptable.
The 11-10 vigorish, providing the house a 4.54% edge, is not the only obstacle facing a sports bettor. Four other hurdles must be cleared before sports bettors turn a profit.
Here's a list of the four human opponents a sports bettor must defeat to conquer the world of 11-10:
1.) The oddsmaker...Your evaluation of a team's ability level must be sharper than the oddsmaker's opinion of the same team. Oddsmakers are not all-knowing. Respect the oddsmaker, but don't fear the oddsmaker.
2.) The bookmaker...A discriminating gambler patronizes establishments that offer players a chance to gamble and win. Do not deal with only one bookmaker. Seek "multiple outs" in order to secure the most attractive prices available in the marketplace. Find bookmakers who are fair, credible and legitimate.
3.) Other sharp gamblers...Here's some stiff competition. Astute sports bettors correct the market quickly when finding mistakes made by the oddsmakers, bookmakers and general public. This select group of winners drains the value from the betting board by wagering large sums of money on games and propositions that are not properly priced.
4.) Yourself...Do not beat yourself. Eliminate mistakes that amateurs make on a regular basis.
PROS VS. JOES.....There are four major differences between recreational players and professional gamblers. The first difference is patience. Beginning gamblers need to be more judicious with their selection process. Professionals are willing to wait until an opportunity provides wagering value, while newcomers look for action at all times.
Another distinction between the rookie and veteran gambler deals with bet-sizing. Inexperienced gamblers constantly overbet their bankroll. Many professionals refuse to risk more than 5% of their bankroll on any single play.
Instinct is another quality that separates the winners from the losers. A beginning gambler has few instincts to trust while an experienced pro develops a "feel" to guide him in the decision-making process.
Finally, respect for the marketplace is essential. Amateurs are not price-sensitive. Professionals will not act until or unless the price is right.
FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....805 CHARLOTTE +6 over Indiana. The Bobcats look to avenge a late October loss to the Pacers in which Indiana spoiled Charlotte's home opener. Indiana is in a funk, having lost three of four games including a two-point loss to Milwaukee two nights ago. The Pacers are struggling rebounding the basketball. Indiana is a deeper team, but Charlotte boasts some star power with former Pacer Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and D.J. Augustin. I prefer Charlotte coach Larry Brown in an underdog role over Indiana's Jim O'Brien as a favorite.
SATURDAY'S BEST BETS.....I'll return Friday night by posting a thread in the main forum titled "Five NCAAB Selections." I was 2-1 last week in my Friday blog, 3-2 with my Saturday selections, and 1-0 in my Monday blog, before flaming out with the Washington Wizards, 116-91 losers to Sacramento, on the latest episode of "Winning Wednesdays."
SUNDAY'S BEST BET.....115-116 GREEN BAY-DETROIT "OVER" 46.5. Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFC (Brady competes in the AFC) and Drew Stanton looked solid last week (20-of-26 for 234 yards) against a stingy Chicago defense. The Packers have averaged more than 32 points per game over their last four games while the Lions have surrendered more than 29 ppg over the same time frame. Ford Field this season has produced final scores of 35-32, 44-6, 37-25, 23-20, 45-24 and 24-20 for an average final score of 34-21.
COMING MONDAY.....A look at the BCS Championship Game between Auburn and Oregon.
To offset the house edge, a sports bettor laying odds of 11-10 is required to record a winning rate of 52.38%.
Let's suppose a gambler makes approximately three plays a day over the course of the year. After 1,000 plays, his hypothetical record stands at 524 wins against 476 losses. Does the gambler win, lose or break even?
Answer: our gambler loses. And loses big.
He has spent an entire year of his life not earning a single dollar. Forty-eight games over the .500 mark in a sample of 1,000 plays is unacceptable.
The 11-10 vigorish, providing the house a 4.54% edge, is not the only obstacle facing a sports bettor. Four other hurdles must be cleared before sports bettors turn a profit.
Here's a list of the four human opponents a sports bettor must defeat to conquer the world of 11-10:
1.) The oddsmaker...Your evaluation of a team's ability level must be sharper than the oddsmaker's opinion of the same team. Oddsmakers are not all-knowing. Respect the oddsmaker, but don't fear the oddsmaker.
2.) The bookmaker...A discriminating gambler patronizes establishments that offer players a chance to gamble and win. Do not deal with only one bookmaker. Seek "multiple outs" in order to secure the most attractive prices available in the marketplace. Find bookmakers who are fair, credible and legitimate.
3.) Other sharp gamblers...Here's some stiff competition. Astute sports bettors correct the market quickly when finding mistakes made by the oddsmakers, bookmakers and general public. This select group of winners drains the value from the betting board by wagering large sums of money on games and propositions that are not properly priced.
4.) Yourself...Do not beat yourself. Eliminate mistakes that amateurs make on a regular basis.
PROS VS. JOES.....There are four major differences between recreational players and professional gamblers. The first difference is patience. Beginning gamblers need to be more judicious with their selection process. Professionals are willing to wait until an opportunity provides wagering value, while newcomers look for action at all times.
Another distinction between the rookie and veteran gambler deals with bet-sizing. Inexperienced gamblers constantly overbet their bankroll. Many professionals refuse to risk more than 5% of their bankroll on any single play.
Instinct is another quality that separates the winners from the losers. A beginning gambler has few instincts to trust while an experienced pro develops a "feel" to guide him in the decision-making process.
Finally, respect for the marketplace is essential. Amateurs are not price-sensitive. Professionals will not act until or unless the price is right.
FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....805 CHARLOTTE +6 over Indiana. The Bobcats look to avenge a late October loss to the Pacers in which Indiana spoiled Charlotte's home opener. Indiana is in a funk, having lost three of four games including a two-point loss to Milwaukee two nights ago. The Pacers are struggling rebounding the basketball. Indiana is a deeper team, but Charlotte boasts some star power with former Pacer Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and D.J. Augustin. I prefer Charlotte coach Larry Brown in an underdog role over Indiana's Jim O'Brien as a favorite.
SATURDAY'S BEST BETS.....I'll return Friday night by posting a thread in the main forum titled "Five NCAAB Selections." I was 2-1 last week in my Friday blog, 3-2 with my Saturday selections, and 1-0 in my Monday blog, before flaming out with the Washington Wizards, 116-91 losers to Sacramento, on the latest episode of "Winning Wednesdays."
SUNDAY'S BEST BET.....115-116 GREEN BAY-DETROIT "OVER" 46.5. Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFC (Brady competes in the AFC) and Drew Stanton looked solid last week (20-of-26 for 234 yards) against a stingy Chicago defense. The Packers have averaged more than 32 points per game over their last four games while the Lions have surrendered more than 29 ppg over the same time frame. Ford Field this season has produced final scores of 35-32, 44-6, 37-25, 23-20, 45-24 and 24-20 for an average final score of 34-21.
COMING MONDAY.....A look at the BCS Championship Game between Auburn and Oregon.
