My Friday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
One of the many charms of America's pastime is the baseball box score, a basic chart that reveals a game's pitching, hitting and fielding statistics. A baseball box score delivers a lot of information in a small space, providing an effective way to re-create the essence of a baseball game. Reading a box score is a time-honored tradition enjoyed by baseball fans everywhere.

Today's advanced box scores offer far more detail than the box scores of yesteryear. As a kid growing up in suburban Chicago, I don't recall the sports pages of the Tribune or Sun-Times revealing the pitch counts of Ferguson Jenkins or the updated batting averages of Ernie Banks or Ron Santo. Nor do I recall finding the number of runners left in scoring position by the hometown Cubs or the all-important game-time wind direction at Wrigley Field.

The baseball box score has come a long way over the past 40 years. Most every baseball stat or situation is covered in a more detailed and sophisticated box score designed for today's diehard followers of the sport.

The sport of basketball should follow the lead established by baseball, thus recording more of a game's happenings. Often times, I'll search and study a basketball box score and feel a sense of emptiness and blankness with questions racing in my mind.

Below is a list of categories (in no particular order) that would be included in my dream college basketball box score:

---Dunks

---Layups

---Deflections

---Number of substitutions

---Three-point opportunities ("Hoop and harm")

---Open three-point shots

---Guarded three-point shots

---Score with 2:00 left

---Score with 1:00 left

---Time of the seventh team foul in each half

---Time of the tenth team foul in each half

---Missed free throws on the front-end of a one-and-one situation

---Designate the five players on the floor at the end of the game

---Opening Pinnacle pointspread

---Closing Pinnacle pointspread

---Opening Pinnacle total

---Closing Pinnacle total

---Experience of each player (class and number of DI games played)

---Shot clock violations

---Defensive schemes (minutes playing man-to-man vs. some form of zone)

---Time of possession

---Time of game


THE PERFECT DOZEN.....Twelve teams remain undefeated six weeks into the college basketball season. Duke, despite losing starting point guard Kyrie Irving to a toe injury, is the best of a group that includes Kansas (9-0), BYU (10-0), Ohio State (9-0), San Diego State (11-0), Baylor (7-0), Connecticut (8-0), Central Florida (9-0), Syracuse (10-0), Cleveland State (12-0), Cincinnati (9-0) and Northwestern (7-0). The Wildcats are the weakest of the undefeated group and the only program in one of the Big Six conferences seeking its first-ever NCAA tournament bid. Nine of the 12 undefeated teams play Saturday with Duke, UConn and NU in action Monday night. Trivial note: Bob Knight's 1975-76 Indiana team is the last of the seven Division I teams to go undefeated in the regular season and win the national title since the inception of the NCAA tournament in 1939.


FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....809 L.A. CLIPPERS +3.5 over the Detroit Pistons. Los Angeles is desperate for its first road victory of the new season. The Clips look to avenge a November 12 overtime loss to Detroit when the Pistons hit 11 of 18 shots from beyond the arc in a 113-107 victory at Staples Center. L.A. outscored Detroit in the paint (54-32) despite playing without starting center Chris Kaman. Baron Davis missed the first meeting against the Pistons, but he'll be ready tonight after missing 14 games in November. Detroit will be life-and-death to win the game, let alone win by four or more.


MORE SELECTIONS.....On Friday night, I will author two threads in EOG's main forum detailing NCAAB and NCAAF selections. My college hoop thread will be titled "Five NCAAB Selections" and my college football analysis will appear in a thread labeled "Bowling for Dollars."


COMING MONDAY.....The most visible and critical position in all of sports (NFL quarterback) seems to be the one most misunderstood by the wagering public.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Re: My Friday blog

JK,

I like to go to espn and you run back the play by play in most games of the box scores there.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Friday blog

That would be a pretty large boxscore, JK. :+textinb3Thanks for the interesting read, and GL on your selection.12io4j2w90
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Friday blog

JK,

I like to go to espn and you run back the play by play in most games of the box scores there.

Good call, Birdie. The play-by-play feature is a must for gamblers researching the last two minutes of a game.
 

E-Money712

EOG Senior Member
Re: My Friday blog

If you come up with a website that obtains that kind of information, you might have a site more worth while than EOG...something to think about!!!
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Friday blog

Interesting point about the evolution of baseball box scores. I guess the game moves slow enough to log this level of a stat. For a sport rooted in tradition the MLB hasn't been afraid of introducing new stats (i.e. WHIP).

Stats are intriguing ... but they can be misleading too. A more sophisticated box score for basketball like the one you laid out would tell a much more accurate story of how the game truly played out. Imagine if we could infuse some level of circumstance or intent into a box score as well, for example:
Number of entry passes
Entry passes leading to a shot (made/missed)
Entry passes resulting in a kick out that led to a shot (made/missed)
Entry passes leading to a turnover

Seems like overkill, but I personally love to find teams with big men who can distribute from the paint and find the open man on the perimeter. Nothing in today's box score would indicate that, but that's something I'd love to be able to define with a stat of some kind.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Friday blog

Good point about the entry pass, brians. If a team cannot feed the post, they're usually in big trouble.

I've discovered the most deadly pass in basketball is not when little guys pass to big guys or big guys kick out to little guys, but when post players pass to one another (center to power forward or vice versa). Good examples of big men passing to one another include today's Celtics (Garnett, Perkins, Davis, et al) and the Celtic teams of the 80's (Bird, McHale and Parish).
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Friday blog

Very true. Once the ball gets into the post it draws so much attention often times leaving the other big open ... also why you see so many weakside offensive rebounds.
 

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: My Friday blog

I'd also like to see further detail on the four points categories that some boxscores do carry.

Points Off Turnovers: This should be divided into points off steals that led directly to a basket, and deadball turnovers that led to a possession that happened to result in a basket.

Points in the Paint: Having layups and dunks would be a good start, but I'd like direct reporting so you could tell if a paint point was scored by a big off a nifty pass or on a fast break--also some crude definition of "move" would be nice for when a big gets the ball and retains it for two or three seconds and scores more from his one-on-one skill than from his making-himself-available-to-the-passer skill.

Fastbreak Points: The current NBA definition is points scored in under x seconds (8?). It would be great to see the opportunities and successes/failures with a man advantage, times ball passed half court without a dribble, and free-to-the-rim vs. pull-up opportunities in advantage situations. It would also be good to have a statistic crediting successful and unsuccessful long outlet passes.

Second Chance Points: Some offensive rebounds come when a three-point shot bounces out to a guard, and some come when one rebounder out battles another for a fifty-fifty ball--and sometimes they're not so much rebounds as tips, and then rebounds that come off wild tips are different than rebounds that come off missed shots. It would be nice to see these categorized so you would have a more direct representation of inside play.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Friday blog

I'd also like to see further detail on the four points categories that some boxscores do carry.

Points Off Turnovers: This should be divided into points off steals that led directly to a basket, and deadball turnovers that led to a possession that happened to result in a basket.

Points in the Paint: Having layups and dunks would be a good start, but I'd like direct reporting so you could tell if a paint point was scored by a big off a nifty pass or on a fast break--also some crude definition of "move" would be nice for when a big gets the ball and retains it for two or three seconds and scores more from his one-on-one skill than from his making-himself-available-to-the-passer skill.

Fastbreak Points: The current NBA definition is points scored in under x seconds (8?). It would be great to see the opportunities and successes/failures with a man advantage, times ball passed half court without a dribble, and free-to-the-rim vs. pull-up opportunities in advantage situations. It would also be good to have a statistic crediting successful and unsuccessful long outlet passes.

Second Chance Points: Some offensive rebounds come when a three-point shot bounces out to a guard, and some come when one rebounder out battles another for a fifty-fifty ball--and sometimes they're not so much rebounds as tips, and then rebounds that come off wild tips are different than rebounds that come off missed shots. It would be nice to see these categorized so you would have a more direct representation of inside play.

Love your point about turnovers. Not all turnovers are created equal as live-ball turnovers (a bad wing pass) are far more damaging than dead-ball turnovers (a traveling or three-second violaton).
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Friday blog

FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....809 L.A. CLIPPERS +3.5 over the Detroit Pistons. Los Angeles is desperate for its first road victory of the new season. The Clips look to avenge a November 12 overtime loss to Detroit when the Pistons hit 11 of 18 shots from beyond the arc in a 113-107 victory at Staples Center. L.A. outscored Detroit in the paint (54-32) despite playing without starting center Chris Kaman. Baron Davis missed the first meeting against the Pistons, but he'll be ready tonight after missing 14 games in November. Detroit will be life-and-death to win the game, let alone win by four or more.

An easy winner and no comments??? Thanks for the winner JK. I believe that's 2-0 this week, couple days off help you see things a bit clearer?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Friday blog

An easy winner and no comments??? Thanks for the winner JK. I believe that's 2-0 this week, couple days off help you see things a bit clearer?

The 48-hour break helped. I had tonight's Clipper game circled for more than a month. During the short break, I spotted my best bet for the bowl season which I will reveal in my Monday blog.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Friday blog

Nice pick with the Clippers. Has Bowling for Dollars been posted yet or are you still blasting in the glory of an LAC blowout? In any event, good luck with the college hoops.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Friday blog

Nice pick with the Clippers. Has Bowling for Dollars been posted yet or are you still blasting in the glory of an LAC blowout? In any event, good luck with the college hoops.

Still basking. :houra

I like NIU -1.5 and "under" 57 in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Thanks JHU.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Friday blog

Great thread. These are the kind of stats that some guys keep their own databases on. Haralabos Voulgaris is one particularly well-known examples for how he beat up the NBA totals market for years by watching tapes of every game (on fast forward) and entering his own kind of stats and matchup data into a DB which was then analyzed by his hired programmers.
 

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: My Friday blog

Great thread. These are the kind of stats that some guys keep their own databases on. Haralabos Voulgaris is one particularly well-known examples for how he beat up the NBA totals market for years by watching tapes of every game (on fast forward) and entering his own kind of stats and matchup data into a DB which was then analyzed by his hired programmers.

Last Spring Bob did a session "in the well" at twoplustwo--for those interested in this stuff who don't know his work here's a link: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/high-stakes-pl-nl/well-haralabos-voulgaris-bob-763371/
 

jfhst18

EOG Veteran
Re: My Friday blog

Great thread. These are the kind of stats that some guys keep their own databases on. Haralabos Voulgaris is one particularly well-known examples for how he beat up the NBA totals market for years by watching tapes of every game (on fast forward) and entering his own kind of stats and matchup data into a DB which was then analyzed by his hired programmers.

Last Spring Bob did a session "in the well" at twoplustwo--for those interested in this stuff who don't know his work here's a link: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/high-stakes-pl-nl/well-haralabos-voulgaris-bob-763371/
 
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