My first five plays of 2011

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
246 TEXAS TECH -9 over Northwestern. The Wildcats are not the same team without quarterback Dan Persa. NU's lack of ball control (held the ball 18:44 vs. Illinois and 22:45 vs. Wisconsin) puts too much pressure on a shaky defense (combined 58 missed tackles vs. Illinois and Wisconsin). Kickoff time - 9:00 a.m. Pacific.

535 NEW MEXICO -1 over Dayton. Point-guard matchup: Dairese Gary vs. Juwan Staten. Let's trust the UNM senior over the UD freshman. Lobo head coach Steve Alford has a contract through 2020 and his freshman class is outstanding. Tip time - 11:00 a.m.

537 NOTRE DAME +6.5 over Syracuse. We can beat the homecourt advantage because ND starts five seniors. Forward Tyrone Nash is playing the best ball of his career. ND's ball movement is excellent. Tip time - 12:30 p.m.

255-256 Connecticut-Oklahoma "UNDER" 54.5. Randy Edsall will play to not lose the game, calling plenty of running plays and depending on UConn's defense and special teams to stay competitive as long as possible. Kickoff time - 5:30 p.m.

557 ARIZONA STATE -1 over Oregon. Final men's game in the 84-year history of McArthur Court, but Oregon's squad is terrible. The Ducks trailed Arizona by 17 points in the first half and by 24 points in the second half en route to a 76-57 loss to the Wildcats two nights ago. ASU will respond well after its road loss to a greatly-improved Oregon State team. Tip time - 7:00 p.m.
 
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heart222

EOG Veteran
Re: My first five plays of 2011

Hi Isthis going to replace your game of the day type of thing that you did in Nov and I thin kSept? that was kind of fun. bestfor a happy new year heart222
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

I like ND +6.5 as well today. Syracuse zone is does not trap as well as it used to (lack of length at the PG & SG positions as they are starting 2 PGs in Jardine & Triche). As you mentioned ND ball movement is excellent, this will lead to open shots from the perimeter. ND is full of shooters.

If you like the Senior-vs-Freshman angle then look no further than St.John's vs Providence. Here you have the oldest team in major D-1 basketball getting 1.5 against the youngest team in D-1 basketball. SJU has 9 Seniors and Providence has 7 Freshmen (1 starting frosh) and 5 Sophomores (3 starting sophomores).
 
J

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

brians said:
I like ND +6.5 as well today. Syracuse zone is does not trap as well as it used to (lack of length at the PG & SG positions as they are starting 2 PGs in Jardine & Triche). As you mentioned ND ball movement is excellent, this will lead to open shots from the perimeter. ND is full of shooters.

If you like the Senior-vs-Freshman angle then look no further than St.John's vs Providence. Here you have the oldest team in major D-1 basketball getting 1.5 against the youngest team in D-1 basketball. SJU has 9 Seniors and Providence has 7 Freshmen (1 starting frosh) and 5 Sophomores (3 starting sophomores).
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SJU is coming off a nice win at WVA. Might be a bit of a let down, between the holidays and a game at MSG vs. Georgetown on Monday. I'm interested in JK's opinion. Thanks John for your efforts and let's start with a winning day.
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

JHU Dad said:
SJU is coming off a nice win at WVA. Might be a bit of a let down, between the holidays and a game at MSG vs. Georgetown on Monday. I'm interested in JK's opinion. Thanks John for your efforts and let's start with a winning day.
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I'm aware of SJU's win at WVA. And no doubt this is a game that PC circled as a good possibility for a win. Though I don't think there's a look-ahead situation. G'Town/SJU game is just another game on the schedule in 2011 (unlike 20-25 years ago).
 
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fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

ND coming off an emotional win against G'town as well.Probably gonna punt onthat one.GL all
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

ND doesn't just have one scorer like a UConn, that makes them dangerous. If Nash can score inside (he always gets good looks but can't finish), ND should keep it close. Like the 1H just a tad better.
 
Junkyarddog47

Junkyarddog47

2
Re: My first five plays of 2011

I like the T-Tech pick. Northwestern jus does not have the firepower after the loss of QB Persa.
 
J

jack stewart

2
Re: My first five plays of 2011

Thanks for the plays JK. I think the ND seniors can have some 3 point success over 'Cuse zone. ND currently + 7.5 on VI screen at Hilton and Leroys.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My first five plays of 2011

Nobody seems to like New Mexico but us. :+textinb3Thanks and GL, JK!91023i2ndw;l
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

Plenty of money against some of my selections today, especially the Texas Tech play. NU-TTU is a tricky handicap because of the value oddsmakers/handicappers placed on the Wildcats' quarterback situation. I've heard the Russians were pounding the underdog, but BW's group wanted the favorite at post time.

Note: my selections are priced against the current Pinnacle numbers at the time of my post. This policy is to avoid any claims of rogue numbers or inflated winning percentages.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

IrishTim said:
ND doesn't just have one scorer like a UConn, that makes them dangerous. If Nash can score inside (he always gets good looks but can't finish), ND should keep it close. Like the 1H just a tad better.
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I think Tyrone Nash has improved dramatically through the years. I love his footwork and I'll now watch for his weak finishes.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

brians said:
I like ND +6.5 as well today. Syracuse zone is does not trap as well as it used to (lack of length at the PG & SG positions as they are starting 2 PGs in Jardine & Triche). As you mentioned ND ball movement is excellent, this will lead to open shots from the perimeter. ND is full of shooters.

If you like the Senior-vs-Freshman angle then look no further than St.John's vs Providence. Here you have the oldest team in major D-1 basketball getting 1.5 against the youngest team in D-1 basketball. SJU has 9 Seniors and Providence has 7 Freshmen (1 starting frosh) and 5 Sophomores (3 starting sophomores).
Click to expand...


I like betting against young teams learning on the job in November and December (and early January, too). Oldest versus youngest...St. John's v Providence. Thanks for the info, brians.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

heart222 said:
Hi Isthis going to replace your game of the day type of thing that you did in Nov and I thin kSept? that was kind of fun. bestfor a happy new year heart222
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Happy New Year heart222. "Thirty Plays in 30 Days" will return in April. I plan to continue the feature in the four months featuring 30 days: April, June, September and November. I post plays every Monday, Wednesday and Friday here at EOG.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

newport2 said:
Arizona St injuries?
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You always ask the right questions, newport2. Lockett missed last game and he's listed questionable tonight. Kuksiks was sick in Thursday night's loss to Oregon State, but he'll play against Oregon. Big game for ASU after the road loss in the Pac-10 opener. Sendek met with the team for a full hour after the loss to the Beavers.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

John Kelly said:
I think Tyrone Nash has improved dramatically through the years. I love his footwork and I'll now watch for his weak finishes.
Click to expand...

He has and his footwork has gotten much better. Good observations for an outsider. You must do this for a living or something. :btj:
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

My uncle was a Holy Cross brother at Notre Dame. He ran the bookstore there for many years. I love the ND campus.
 
N

newport2

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

John Kelly said:
You always ask the right questions, newport2. Lockett missed last game and he's listed questionable tonight. Kuksiks was sick in Thursday night's loss to Oregon State, but he'll play against Oregon. Big game for ASU after the road loss in the Pac-10 opener. Sendek met with the team for a full hour after the loss to the Beavers.
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Lockett out!
 
FISHHEAD

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: My first five plays of 2011

NW may be a GREAT PLAY on the halftime line......................THIS TEAM IS ALWAYS IN GAMES.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

John Kelly said:
My uncle was a Holy Cross brother at Notre Dame. He ran the bookstore there for many years. I love the ND campus.
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Cool, if you're ever out there let me know. I believe that ND's bookstore is the most profitable retail store in the U.S. per square foot. It's sick how much money people spend there (especially game weekends).
 
F

fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

I got beat up pretty good today with college baskets too;any game that could have gone either way eluded us.Well get the breaks down the road.Tx for the analysis JK
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

fifty cint said:
I got beat up pretty good today with college baskets too;any game that could have gone either way eluded us.Well get the breaks down the road.Tx for the analysis JK
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Thanks for the encouragement, fifty cint. I avoided a bagel by winning with ASU. A 1-4 start to 2011 is disappointing, to say the least.

Definition of a losing day/streak: a couple of dead sides combined with a couple of losing coin-flip results combined with a bad beat here and there. I'm still recovering from blowing a 22-point lead with TTU. FISHHEAD was right: Northwestern was gutty in the second half and never quit.
 
C

"Cha Ching Kid"

EOG Member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

JK, the only thing worse than your First 5 Plays of 2011 was the pathetic performance of the Big 10 in college bowls. Lets get back to good solid handicapping!!!!!!!!
 
FISHHEAD

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: My first five plays of 2011

John Kelly said:
Thanks for the encouragement, fifty cint. I avoided a bagel by winning with ASU. A 1-4 start to 2011 is disappointing, to say the least.

Definition of a losing day/streak: a couple of dead sides combined with a couple of losing coin-flip results combined with a bad beat here and there. I'm still recovering from blowing a 22-point lead with TTU. FISHHEAD was right: Northwestern was gutty in the second half and never quit.
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I have great respect for their coach!!


 
Blondie

Blondie

EOG Master
Re: My first five plays of 2011

"Cha Ching Kid" said:
JK, the only thing worse than your First 5 Plays of 2011 was the pathetic performance of the Big 10 in college bowls. Lets get back to good solid handicapping!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

Ouch

Where's your plays then since surely you did better?
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My first five plays of 2011

"Cha Ching Kid" said:
JK, the only thing worse than your First 5 Plays of 2011 was the pathetic performance of the Big 10 in college bowls. Lets get back to good solid handicapping!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

The Big Ten finished 0-5 straight-up, but 2-3 ATS with NU and UW posting pointspread victories against widely-available numbers. I finished a disappointing 1-4 ATS.
 
J

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My first five plays of 2011

Obviously the games weren't related, but that Northwestern game brought nothing but bad karma for the whole day.
 
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