Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
- Thread starter TomBrady#1
- Start date
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
LMAO, They sell out at 10k per before the season even starts....They aint going anywhere Champ....
LMAO, They sell out at 10k per before the season even starts....They aint going anywhere Champ....
Bucky
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
You can't fade it right away at release - you have to let their followers move the market first.
You can't fade it right away at release - you have to let their followers move the market first.
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
TIm are you kidding around? Why would RAS not have a service next year or the rest of the touts that are making money? DId Dr Bob quit after a rough year? What else is he going to do, become a doctor? He is in for the duration. Book it.
TIm are you kidding around? Why would RAS not have a service next year or the rest of the touts that are making money? DId Dr Bob quit after a rough year? What else is he going to do, become a doctor? He is in for the duration. Book it.
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
You have to time the fade. For instance if the toal is over 135 when it makes 138..time to fade. If it closes at 139 you jsut deal with it. No way can you find the peak all the time. But if it moves 2+ pts...grab it. 3 or more is perfect. Obviosly under 119 is a little harder to move 3+ pts so you have to be on top of it. Under 119 you bet over at 117.
You have to time the fade. For instance if the toal is over 135 when it makes 138..time to fade. If it closes at 139 you jsut deal with it. No way can you find the peak all the time. But if it moves 2+ pts...grab it. 3 or more is perfect. Obviosly under 119 is a little harder to move 3+ pts so you have to be on top of it. Under 119 you bet over at 117.
playersadvocate
EOG Senior Member
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Ed used to come into every thread and back up his service. Kind of tells you about a guy when he disappears when the going gets tough.
Just saying
Ed used to come into every thread and back up his service. Kind of tells you about a guy when he disappears when the going gets tough.
Just saying
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Roughly speaking, the peak is probably 10-15 seconds after he releases. So not "right at" release, but almost immediately after. If you're waiting until close, you're most likely going to lose out on half a point+.
Because he could conceivably make more (none of us really know unless they open their books) either betting their stuff aggressively without worrying about preserving the market for their customers or by working for BW or another big time group. RAS isn't the same type of tout as all the others because of how active they are in the betting market, betting both stuff they don't release and other sports (I've spoken to Craig about hockey props and such, for example). Dr. Bob didn't bet so naturally he would continue the service until the customer base dried up.
Look, I have no dog in the fight. I really don't give a shit what people think about RAS or any other service. I have never subscribed to a tout service, but that doesn't mean none of them can have an edge. I think they are generally a favorite to win going forward, as is a number of other posters who don't sell their picks. I could be wrong certainly, but their methodologies and approach I think set them up well to be successful.
Roughly speaking, the peak is probably 10-15 seconds after he releases. So not "right at" release, but almost immediately after. If you're waiting until close, you're most likely going to lose out on half a point+.
Because he could conceivably make more (none of us really know unless they open their books) either betting their stuff aggressively without worrying about preserving the market for their customers or by working for BW or another big time group. RAS isn't the same type of tout as all the others because of how active they are in the betting market, betting both stuff they don't release and other sports (I've spoken to Craig about hockey props and such, for example). Dr. Bob didn't bet so naturally he would continue the service until the customer base dried up.
Look, I have no dog in the fight. I really don't give a shit what people think about RAS or any other service. I have never subscribed to a tout service, but that doesn't mean none of them can have an edge. I think they are generally a favorite to win going forward, as is a number of other posters who don't sell their picks. I could be wrong certainly, but their methodologies and approach I think set them up well to be successful.
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
What did Pinnacle open totals at last year? I don't believe it was $100.
These things get whacked into shape hours before RAS can release.
Just basic kenpom math will put the line within a point or so of correct.
Take a look at RAS's picks if they had been made vs opening lines. I'd bet they are up this year though I don't know.
Total market has gotten far less valuable.
What did Pinnacle open totals at last year? I don't believe it was $100.
These things get whacked into shape hours before RAS can release.
Just basic kenpom math will put the line within a point or so of correct.
Take a look at RAS's picks if they had been made vs opening lines. I'd bet they are up this year though I don't know.
Total market has gotten far less valuable.
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
I know you could care less and neither do I. WHat you metnioned has been mentioned directly to RAS many times wayyy before you were around. HE has elected to continue to run his forum and be a tout. Now Railbird mentioned that he has some other thoughts, not sure and it has gotten harder as book are afraid to put up lines and all that. He could step down. But to this point he has resisted anything else and continued to do his thing. Time will tell.....
I know you could care less and neither do I. WHat you metnioned has been mentioned directly to RAS many times wayyy before you were around. HE has elected to continue to run his forum and be a tout. Now Railbird mentioned that he has some other thoughts, not sure and it has gotten harder as book are afraid to put up lines and all that. He could step down. But to this point he has resisted anything else and continued to do his thing. Time will tell.....
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
He's not a one-trick pony, he sells NCAAF and WNBA as well. Shuttering the business would involve giving up those sports as well, wouldn't it?
He's not a one-trick pony, he sells NCAAF and WNBA as well. Shuttering the business would involve giving up those sports as well, wouldn't it?
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
I would think so, yes. You have to think his bread and butter is the college hoop business and most specifically the totals. He likes doing it and has continued to do it. ALso it helps his forum of course as he gets a % of the losers from the books where he advertises which is another key point.
I would think so, yes. You have to think his bread and butter is the college hoop business and most specifically the totals. He likes doing it and has continued to do it. ALso it helps his forum of course as he gets a % of the losers from the books where he advertises which is another key point.
WVU
EOG Master
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
is he up on those sports? Staying up is key. If he has 200 subscribers for NCAA this year and they all lose money after accounting for his fee then he would likely only retain maybe 30% of them next year. Gamblers are fickle. If they don't win they look for another service.
I doubt they had any more than 200 subscribers for NCAA. I wouldn't be surprised if the true number was under 100.
is he up on those sports? Staying up is key. If he has 200 subscribers for NCAA this year and they all lose money after accounting for his fee then he would likely only retain maybe 30% of them next year. Gamblers are fickle. If they don't win they look for another service.
I doubt they had any more than 200 subscribers for NCAA. I wouldn't be surprised if the true number was under 100.
Bucky
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Yes, I see your point. I just graded them by hand from info on their site. I don't subscribe so I don't have data on the optimal point to get the best value on fades. Everybody talks about what a ripoff it is to buy picks from anybody. If that is true - we should be fading any touts that have the ability to move the line. It is very hard to get in on the price they release at(all by guys that automate?) wow - all happens in 1 seconds? But we have a lot of time to fade the pick at a good price. What the heck, let's "paper fade" the next 50 releases and see how we do??? Maybe, I can capture some line movement data at the end of the day to see how much difference there was at the close to the highest point of the day, etc.
Yes, I see your point. I just graded them by hand from info on their site. I don't subscribe so I don't have data on the optimal point to get the best value on fades. Everybody talks about what a ripoff it is to buy picks from anybody. If that is true - we should be fading any touts that have the ability to move the line. It is very hard to get in on the price they release at(all by guys that automate?) wow - all happens in 1 seconds? But we have a lot of time to fade the pick at a good price. What the heck, let's "paper fade" the next 50 releases and see how we do??? Maybe, I can capture some line movement data at the end of the day to see how much difference there was at the close to the highest point of the day, etc.
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
what name does he use I tried searching for him
what name does he use I tried searching for him
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
I thought he used 'Edward from RAS' or something, sorry I can't remember. BTW, who is that lovely creature in your avatar?
WVU
EOG Master
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Creature? LOL. Its my wife i took the picture on our honeymoon in Bermuda. How lucky did she get!
Creature? LOL. Its my wife i took the picture on our honeymoon in Bermuda. How lucky did she get!
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
In avatar yes. It was a superbowl joke. The new one is honestly my wife. We were on a cruise from philly to bermuda. lol
In avatar yes. It was a superbowl joke. The new one is honestly my wife. We were on a cruise from philly to bermuda. lol
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Sounds good Bucky. Take a fair estimate of a buy price by looking at the original price and closing price and everything in between. You probably can even look back to see how we would have done all year which looks great to this point. You got the right idea, Bucky.
Sounds good Bucky. Take a fair estimate of a buy price by looking at the original price and closing price and everything in between. You probably can even look back to see how we would have done all year which looks great to this point. You got the right idea, Bucky.
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Congrats Bookbraker. SHe looks sweet. How about a better pic inside a post when you get a second? ANyhow RAS is a member here and almost every forum but he does not post that much.
Congrats Bookbraker. SHe looks sweet. How about a better pic inside a post when you get a second? ANyhow RAS is a member here and almost every forum but he does not post that much.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
You're a lucky man, Braker. When I come up with someone comparable I'll get in touch so we can play golf if you'd like and let the women have some other fun.:cheers
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
He is down for year Munson. You fade him this year and you are rich. Plus you are fading with a better line. The glory days are over. The only problem is he might finally get warm this year and we (as faders) missed the boat. Keep an open mind and you might be surprised. Peace.
He is down for year Munson. You fade him this year and you are rich. Plus you are fading with a better line. The glory days are over. The only problem is he might finally get warm this year and we (as faders) missed the boat. Keep an open mind and you might be surprised. Peace.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
I certainly have an open mind or I would not have thought twice about this. I have made money with RAS in the past, but as Al Davis used to say when he was younger and Oakland was winning, "It's more important to be right, at the moment, than it is to be consistent."
I certainly have an open mind or I would not have thought twice about this. I have made money with RAS in the past, but as Al Davis used to say when he was younger and Oakland was winning, "It's more important to be right, at the moment, than it is to be consistent."
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
I don't think we have ever chased, but we have struggled at times finding the right balance and consistency between selectivity and being aggressive. The number of plays this year has been pretty comparable to past years.
The totals market is clearly tougher this year, I don't think anyone actively involved in it would dispute that. We may not see 59-60% win rates anymore, but we are still positioned to do as well as anyone going forward.
I went on record (vegaswatch interview) before the season projecting 56-59% on CBB totals, but that was before having any idea how different the market would be this year, both in terms of availablity of non-TV games in Nov-Jan and just how much tougher in general it has gotten.
For the balance of this season, I'd set a fair line of 54%, and for all of next season 55%.
I'm not sure what else there is for me to clarify. There seem to be a lot of people posting in this thread who think they know everything about RAS, but in reality know very little.
I'd be happy to answer any specific questions if there are any.
Edward
I don't think we have ever chased, but we have struggled at times finding the right balance and consistency between selectivity and being aggressive. The number of plays this year has been pretty comparable to past years.
The totals market is clearly tougher this year, I don't think anyone actively involved in it would dispute that. We may not see 59-60% win rates anymore, but we are still positioned to do as well as anyone going forward.
I went on record (vegaswatch interview) before the season projecting 56-59% on CBB totals, but that was before having any idea how different the market would be this year, both in terms of availablity of non-TV games in Nov-Jan and just how much tougher in general it has gotten.
For the balance of this season, I'd set a fair line of 54%, and for all of next season 55%.
I'm not sure what else there is for me to clarify. There seem to be a lot of people posting in this thread who think they know everything about RAS, but in reality know very little.
I'd be happy to answer any specific questions if there are any.
Edward
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Ed, is there any truth to you considering not doing this next year (meaning capping)? SOme have said this even stating it has come from you. I seriously doubt it but you can clarify?
What is different about the market, ED? IT might be hard to pinpoint but can you try or are the numbers just tighter? Do you think the books have got up to your methodology similar to the way they have with Dr Bob?
I know football has gotten harder specifically college football the last few years. Very frustrating. Your thoughts are appreciated.
Ed, is there any truth to you considering not doing this next year (meaning capping)? SOme have said this even stating it has come from you. I seriously doubt it but you can clarify?
What is different about the market, ED? IT might be hard to pinpoint but can you try or are the numbers just tighter? Do you think the books have got up to your methodology similar to the way they have with Dr Bob?
I know football has gotten harder specifically college football the last few years. Very frustrating. Your thoughts are appreciated.
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
IrishTim is right. There is a good possibility that the totals will not be offered publicly next year. The logistics of the totals service (line movement, limits, sportsbook countermeasures, etc. ) are difficult for the common follower to deal with, especially when the sportsbooks themselves potentially can have equal access to the information. We might be better off just keeping the totals for private use.
When I talk about the market being tougher, I mean openers being sharper to begin with, but more importantly lines moving the right way faster and more consistently than in years past. We don't rely heavily on any single methodologgy, so I don't think it has anything to do with books catching up to us in particular, just the market in general being more competitive.
IrishTim is right. There is a good possibility that the totals will not be offered publicly next year. The logistics of the totals service (line movement, limits, sportsbook countermeasures, etc. ) are difficult for the common follower to deal with, especially when the sportsbooks themselves potentially can have equal access to the information. We might be better off just keeping the totals for private use.
When I talk about the market being tougher, I mean openers being sharper to begin with, but more importantly lines moving the right way faster and more consistently than in years past. We don't rely heavily on any single methodologgy, so I don't think it has anything to do with books catching up to us in particular, just the market in general being more competitive.
steak tartar
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
good luck on tcu un fast eddie..i have that one also
good luck on tcu un fast eddie..i have that one also
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Fear not loyal RAS followers.....
Well if the opening totals are much sharper then they might have caught up a little in addition to the limits, sportsbook countermeasures and all that you mentioned. It is much harder.
Do you feel more resentment because your prices have risen and the results just are not there this year? How do you feel about that Ed?
When you say private use possibly for next year does that mean people who are willing to negotiate with you on the side or privately?
Well if the opening totals are much sharper then they might have caught up a little in addition to the limits, sportsbook countermeasures and all that you mentioned. It is much harder.
Do you feel more resentment because your prices have risen and the results just are not there this year? How do you feel about that Ed?
When you say private use possibly for next year does that mean people who are willing to negotiate with you on the side or privately?